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US-Australia Battle, Early Results Are In  
User currently offlineLAXintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 24893 posts, RR: 46
Posted (5 years 1 week 5 days 19 hours ago) and read 25342 times:

Well as we know the US-Australia market has heated up this years.

Results for the first three months of service with V Australia in the market are in.

Here are monthly passenger load factor for V Austrlia(VA), United(UA), and Qantas(QF) USA services. For fun I also threw in Hawaiian Air(HA) which historically has offered a cheaper 1-stop routing option for many.

Feb 2009
AUS-USA
HA – 47.9%
QF - 71.2%
UA – 65.2%
VA – 38.0%

USA-AUS
HA - 49.8%
QF – 81.3%
UA – 80.7%
VA – 24.9%
-----------------
Mar 2009
AUS-USA
HA – 46.3%
QF - 79.8%
UA – 78.0%
VA – 62.7%

USA-AUS
HA – 44.7%
QF – 69.7%
UA – 66.8%
VA – 50.9%
-----------------
Apr 2009
AUS-USA
HA – 62.2%
QF – 87.9%
UA – 86.0%
VA – 67.8%

USA-AUS
HA – 52.4%
QF – 75.9%
UA – 70.4%
VA – 51.0%
-----------------

V Austrlia seems to be slowly building its LF. Additionaly in April its LAX frequencies increased as the BNE nonstop commenced.

I am shocked to see the LF’s Hawaiian Air is carrying. I suspect with all the added capacity and fares, the previously price competive option via Hawaii has been voided.

Off course with the unheard of fares in the market, even a high LF could likely result in losses for the players.


From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
135 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineSW733 From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 6306 posts, RR: 9
Reply 1, posted (5 years 1 week 5 days 18 hours ago) and read 25250 times:

Of course as expected UA and QF are king; however, I see V Australia taking a chunk of UA's share due to their (supposedly) better product - newer planes, PTV, etc. We shall see, but so far it's too early to tell. I am flying to Australia on Wednesday with QF...but I kind of wish I had booked VA, I would have had a private jet it seems  Smile

I am also curious where Air Pacific comes in...I know a lot of people do USA-Australia-USA via Fiji...


User currently offlineDLPMMM From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 3589 posts, RR: 10
Reply 2, posted (5 years 1 week 5 days 18 hours ago) and read 25094 times:



Quoting LAXintl (Thread starter):

Interesting...

How does this compare with 1 year ago (before VA)?

It would give a better idea as to which carrier is losing more marketshare to VA.


User currently offlineFlyboysp From Australia, joined Apr 2007, 739 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (5 years 1 week 5 days 16 hours ago) and read 24769 times:

Quoting DLPMMM (Reply 2):
Interesting...

How does this compare with 1 year ago (before VA)?

It would give a better idea as to which carrier is losing more marketshare to VA.

As requested, here are the corresponding numbers for 2008

Feb 2008
AUS-USA
HA – 67.1%
QF - 77.8.%
UA – 72.1%

USA-AUS
HA - 66.3%
QF – 89.6%
UA – 92.4%

Mar 2008
AUS-USA
HA – 78.5%
QF - 87.7%
UA – 86.3%


USA-AUS
HA – 72.8%
QF – 77.4%
UA – 68.5%

Apr 2008
AUS-USA
HA – 66.1%
QF – 86.5%
UA – 78.0%


USA-AUS
HA – 61.7%
QF – 78.6%
UA – 58.0%

Data avaiable from the following links

http://www.bitre.gov.au/publications/11/Files/0208_M.pdf
http://www.bitre.gov.au/publications/11/Files/0308_M.pdf
http://www.bitre.gov.au/publications/11/Files/0408_M.pdf

Based on these statistics it would appear that HA load factors are down overall with the exception of April 2009, where AUS-USA load factors increasd marginally increased by 1.1%. QF load factors have also decreased compared to 2008, however the drops in percentages are not as large as HA. As for UA, load factors are with the exception of the April 2009 where it is 70.4% instead of 58.0 for the previous year.

[Edited 2009-07-20 10:51:15]


#proudtobeabulldog
User currently offlineDirectorguy From Egypt, joined Jul 2008, 1652 posts, RR: 11
Reply 4, posted (5 years 1 week 5 days 16 hours ago) and read 24652 times:

Thanks for sharing.

Does anyone have an idea of what the breakeven load factors for each airline would be? It would be an indication of how well an airline is doing.


User currently offlineLAXintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 24893 posts, RR: 46
Reply 5, posted (5 years 1 week 5 days 15 hours ago) and read 24597 times:

The US-Australia market volume totals carried by the listed airlines has been basically been flat year over year only down -0.9%,
(Jan-Apr08 519,312 vs Jan-Apr09 514,229)

Obviously the added new capacity and lower pricing has encouraged some new people to fly but the global economic mess has surely taken others out of the travel market.



From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
User currently offlineFlyboysp From Australia, joined Apr 2007, 739 posts, RR: 0
Reply 6, posted (5 years 1 week 5 days 15 hours ago) and read 24573 times:

Just to give my previous post some more context, inbound arrivals to Australia for the quarter of Feb 08 up to and including Apr 08 was 184339 passengers. Outbound numbers for the same period were 191659. For 2009 numbers, inbound to Australia were 181911 and outbound were 193636.

The 2008 numbers include HA,QF and UA, with 2009 being the same except the addition of VA. Overall the total numbers suggest that despite the increased competition as a result for VA, passenger numbers are relatively stagnant/stable, although are technically down by about 450.



#proudtobeabulldog
User currently offlineAerokiwi From New Zealand, joined Jul 2000, 2684 posts, RR: 4
Reply 7, posted (5 years 1 week 5 days 13 hours ago) and read 24301 times:



Quoting SW733 (Reply 1):
I am also curious where Air Pacific comes in...I know a lot of people do USA-Australia-USA via Fiji...

And a whole bunch do Australia-New Zealand-US/Canada, but I don't think you could separate those pax out or get a clear picture of load factor just for Oz/US originating pax.


User currently offlineLAXintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 24893 posts, RR: 46
Reply 8, posted (5 years 1 week 5 days 12 hours ago) and read 24216 times:

Well New Zealand statistics show USA traffic is down -12.4% for the first four months of 2009 compared to 2008.

I suppose Australia has managed to remain nearly flat thanks much to the incredible pricing which undoubtedly has stimulated a segment of travelers.



From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
User currently offlineEXAAUADL From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 9, posted (5 years 1 week 5 days 12 hours ago) and read 24176 times:



Quoting LAXintl (Thread starter):



Quoting LAXintl (Thread starter):
I am shocked to see the LF’s Hawaiian Air is carrying. I suspect with all the added capacity and fares, the previously price competive option via Hawaii has been voided.

I think that is one reason. The other is that when AQ and TZ went under it reduced capacity to Hawaii and if US-AUS travel books later than US-Hawaii, the connecting pax to SYD via HNL cant even get to HNL cuz flights are full even before they book


User currently offlineFlighty From United States of America, joined Apr 2007, 8416 posts, RR: 3
Reply 10, posted (5 years 1 week 5 days 11 hours ago) and read 23981 times:

Those Virgin numbers look horrible to me. Are they really expecting to make money on this? What about FF miles? United's 744 is far from shabby now that they fixed them up. Plus the massive loyalty to Star and the miles earned. VA is not only getting less business, but probably more unattached lower fare business at that. Same problem as Virgin America.

User currently offlineTullamarine From Australia, joined Aug 1999, 1523 posts, RR: 0
Reply 11, posted (5 years 1 week 5 days 10 hours ago) and read 23781 times:

Probably too early to make too many judgments but here are some important things to consider.

- No firm comment possible until the DL and VA JSA comes into force. At that point they will be selling each others' services and this will help both of them VA has zero brand recognition in US (not much more in Aust unfortunately due to inability to use Virgin name). DL has zero recognition in Australia and doesn't even have an Australian website yet so it hasn't even tried downunder yet but will go better when DJ is selling on their behalf.

- QF is doing best but has most to lose given the cashcow that US services have always been to them. The biggest threat to QF is VA getting capitalised via a partial sale to SQ or EK which would mean VA could get even more aggressive and the foreign airline would get a permanent presence on the US-Australia route.

- UA is struggling on. It never appears particularly cheap which is amazing given their product is far inferior to the other three airlines. Their new J class is OK but their Y class is more than 10 years behind the times. Maybe they should ditch the 744s and just use 772s between LAX and SYD.



717,721/2,732/3/4/5/7/8/9,742/3/4,752/3,762/3,772,W,A310,320,321,332,333,388,DC9,DC10,F28,F100,142,143,E90,CR2,D82/3/4,S
User currently offlineWROORD From United States of America, joined Mar 2009, 946 posts, RR: 0
Reply 12, posted (5 years 1 week 5 days 9 hours ago) and read 23718 times:

A friend of mine just came back from SYD on UA said both ways there was one seat empty. I guess UA is still strong even though their service has a long wish list.

User currently offlineLAXintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 24893 posts, RR: 46
Reply 13, posted (5 years 1 week 5 days 9 hours ago) and read 23579 times:



Quoting Flighty (Reply 10):
Those Virgin numbers look horrible to me. Are they really expecting to make money on this?

From articles I have seen I dont believe VA expects a profit until year 3, so they entered this venture knowing very much it would be a long haul.

Quoting Tullamarine (Reply 11):
VA has zero brand recognition in US

Well they are trying. They have multiple electronic billboards around town with various images from flight attendants standing on the wing, to Branson making cameo appearances.
They are also trying to network their way thru much of the SoCal travel agent community, along some adds in publications.

Quoting Tullamarine (Reply 11):
Their new J class is OK

I'd say their J-class is much more then OK. Matter of fact probably best US hard product, exceeding that of many foreign players also.

Personally I believe UA really hit the home run with its new premium product.



From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
User currently offlineFlighty From United States of America, joined Apr 2007, 8416 posts, RR: 3
Reply 14, posted (5 years 1 week 5 days 8 hours ago) and read 23524 times:



Quoting LAXintl (Reply 13):
From articles I have seen I dont believe VA expects a profit until year 3, so they entered this venture knowing very much it would be a long haul.

So after losing lots of money, they expect to profit enough to retire the debt and pay an ROI? That seems daft.

Quoting Tullamarine (Reply 11):
It never appears particularly cheap which is amazing

Which, of course, suggests they are doing well.


User currently offlineANstar From United Kingdom, joined Nov 2003, 5176 posts, RR: 6
Reply 15, posted (5 years 1 week 5 days 8 hours ago) and read 23429 times:



Quoting Flighty (Reply 10):
Those Virgin numbers look horrible to me

Given they only flew 1 flight in FEB I would disregard those stats.

As for MAR/APR/MAY I'd expect their first 3 months of startup in the low season to be quite slow... they need to build their brand and awareness.

JUN/JUL/AUG I'd expect them to fare much better - in fact they have gone out full on a few days in June and pretty close to full most other days from what I have seen.

If you are going to incoude HA then you should also include JQ who actually offer more seats than HA on the SYD-HNL route.

Quoting Flyboysp (Reply 3):
QF load factors have also decreased compared to 2008

But for QF and UA the yields are probably at 50% less than they were a year ago.

Quoting WROORD (Reply 12):
A friend of mine just came back from SYD on UA said both ways there was one seat empty.

I'd expect all the airlines to be at 100% currently - it IS school holidays.....


User currently offlineLAXintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 24893 posts, RR: 46
Reply 16, posted (5 years 1 week 5 days 8 hours ago) and read 23378 times:



Quoting ANstar (Reply 15):
If you are going to incoude HA then you should also include JQ who actually offer more seats than HA on the SYD-HNL route.

The reason HA was included is they have historically actively marketed what is often a cheaper Mainland-Australia alternative via HNL for those that could not make the QF and UA nonstops basically providing a market relief valve.

JQ on the other hand is primarily Hawaii O&D focused and mostly after Australian outbound tourism and likely a negligable effect on the QF/VA/UA and soon DL battle.



From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
User currently offlineETA Unknown From Comoros, joined Jun 2001, 2073 posts, RR: 0
Reply 17, posted (5 years 1 week 5 days 2 hours ago) and read 22320 times:

Actually the HA mainland-Australia fares were never that much cheaper than the non-stops- if they are now, then that must be a new thing.

Surprisingly, Air Pacific (my carrier of choice- I don't do nonstops anymore) doesn't carry that much transit traffic to Aus/NZ- I think the most I've seen at the transit desk is 50 pax- not a high number for a 747.


User currently offlineLAXintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 24893 posts, RR: 46
Reply 18, posted (5 years 1 week 2 days 16 hours ago) and read 19745 times:

The sale battles continue. Starting July 20th, now V Australia and others are offering $359 o/w fares good for travel thru Nov 30th. Only a matter of time before sale pricing spills over to the holiday period.

Great for the consumers.



From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
User currently offlineSurfandSnow From United States of America, joined Jan 2009, 2858 posts, RR: 30
Reply 19, posted (5 years 1 week 2 days 8 hours ago) and read 19435 times:



Quoting LAXintl (Reply 18):
The sale battles continue. Starting July 20th, now V Australia and others are offering $359 o/w fares good for travel thru Nov 30th. Only a matter of time before sale pricing spills over to the holiday period.

Great for the consumers.

Excellent! I would like to get down to Australia in early January (right after New Years). Such a fare would make this possible.



Flying in the middle seat of coach is much better than not flying at all!
User currently offlineSydscott From Australia, joined Oct 2003, 2930 posts, RR: 20
Reply 20, posted (5 years 1 week 2 days 5 hours ago) and read 19299 times:



Quoting WROORD (Reply 12):
A friend of mine just came back from SYD on UA said both ways there was one seat empty. I guess UA is still strong even though their service has a long wish list.

I'm still in the US and did QF 11 on July 14th. Economy was relatively full, Premium Economy was full of upgrades from economy on points. My friend sitting down there chatted to just about everyone and asked. I was sitting in business and upstairs was less than half full and downstairs was about half full. I didn't see into first. The hosties said QF 107 was roughly the same. Plus there were 2 A380's on the remote stands at SYD not going anywhere and they had subbed our A380 QF 11 service for a 744.

So is QF hurting on this route? I'd say absolutely!


User currently offlineKoruman From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 21, posted (5 years 5 days 22 hours ago) and read 18746 times:

The Hawaiian Airlines drop actually reflects the idiosyncracy of its route: it flies only an O+D leisure route from the only Australian city which is in recession (Sydney) to Honolulu.

I really don't think that you can generalise anything from their load factor other than that Sydney is the most financially compromised city in Australia.

Sydney isn't actually the most important battleground, as you can see:

Greater Sydney: 5 million population, in recession.
Melbourne: 4 million population, not in recession.
Southeast Queensland (BNE/OOL): 3 million population, booming.

Qantas, V Australia, United, Hawaiian and Delta are all fighting for that failing Sydney market.

Meanwhile, Air New Zealand offers one-stop services from BNE, OOL and MEL to San Francisco, Vancouver and Honolulu as well as Los Angeles.

The most interesting statistic would be whether Air NZ's business class loads on their lunchtime 747 and 777 services between BNE/MEL and AKl have suffered. If they have, I would expect them to seek to take over V Australia.

Air NZ will happily concede to Delta and V Australia its market of low-yield economy passengers from Sydney to the USA, but the high-yield business passengers from Melbourne and Brisbane to the USA are the ones they can't afford to lose.


User currently offlineAirNZ From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 22, posted (5 years 5 days 10 hours ago) and read 18397 times:



Quoting Flighty (Reply 14):
So after losing lots of money, they expect to profit enough to retire the debt and pay an ROI? That seems daft.

Sorry, I'm not with you here........are you really saying you expect airlines to make a profit on routes started only a few months? What airline does that? Indeed, if that's your view of VA I'd surely hate to see what you'll think about DL!

Quoting Koruman (Reply 21):
Air NZ will happily concede to Delta and V Australia its market of low-yield economy passengers from Sydney to the USA,

You're seriously joking!!!! Either that, or some of you just don't learn at all. Are you suggesting that NZ develop a business configuration only then?

Quoting Koruman (Reply 21):
I would expect them to seek to take over V Australia.

Come again???


User currently offlineANstar From United Kingdom, joined Nov 2003, 5176 posts, RR: 6
Reply 23, posted (5 years 5 days 10 hours ago) and read 18378 times:



Quoting Koruman (Reply 21):
If they have, I would expect them to seek to take over V Australia

I doubt the NZ government is interested in taking over V Australia as a going concern.... perhaps they should worry about getting their country out of recesison first than investing in foreign interests.....

Quoting Koruman (Reply 21):
Meanwhile, Air New Zealand offers one-stop services from BNE, OOL and MEL to San Francisco, Vancouver and Honolulu as well as Los Angeles

And VA will offer non stop from MEL/BNE to lax and then one stop to SFO also... whats your point?? NZ are stuck in a hard place...they will see more and more of their AUS connecting traffic drop off to VA/DL and I'd be surprised if they can sustain all their AKL-LAX/YVR/SFO flights on its AKL base alone which is why they are probably in opposition to the DL/VA venture.


User currently offlineBriguy1974 From United States of America, joined Aug 2005, 133 posts, RR: 0
Reply 24, posted (5 years 5 days 1 hour ago) and read 18119 times:

Does V have any solid plans to serve another US city? SEA, SFO or maybe YVR in Canada?

25 ANstar : No - only new route in the next 12 months is MEL-LAX
26 Koruman : Of course not. What I am saying is that because Sydney is so well served with non-stop flights to the USA, the majority of Air NZ passengers flying S
27 JQflightie : Does the QF result include the JQ service SYD-HNL ???
28 ETA Unknown : Last time I flew SYD-AKL-LAX on NZ I had to reclaim the bags in AKL so they could be re-screened according to USA procedures for the onwards AKL-LAX f
29 LAXintl : The May 2009 numbers are available. May 2009 AUS-USA HA - 50.9% QF - 80.2% UA - 67.4% VA - 56.4% USA-AUS HA - 52.9% QF - 87.8% UA - 76.7% VA - 60.8%
30 AirbusA322 : Interesting. Bit of a worry still there for VA, they wouldn't want to see that small decline continue...
31 ANstar : Their CEO has mentioned loads are currently running at 75% so looks like they have increased. May is the slowest month in AUS for International trave
32 AirbusA322 : Yes, I think we will have to wait until June/July figures are released, I assume we will see many figures in the 90-100% range due to US/AU Holidays.
33 LAXintl : Yes indeed it was a low month for travel, with the industry average inbound LF to Australia holding at mere 64.0% and outbound at 69.9% with 1.3% tot
34 Koruman : Isn't it pretty obvious what the problem is? Sydney is Australia's major tourist destination and business centre (marginally ahead of MEL), but in th
35 PITrules : I'm also curious if United will restart nonstop MEL service for a few months in the northern winter like they have done in the past. I would assume n
36 Flighty : Do you expect Qantas to drop the route? Or, like me, are you skeptical of what Virgin can hope to achieve on the route? Or for that matter Delta?
37 Smi0006 : That sounds like a bloody good idea to me! I only wish someone at UA was reading this now!
38 Thegeek : I don't know, that leaves only QF flying SYD-SFO, and ignores UA's hub in SFO for SYD pax but the worst part is the load restrictions on the SFO-MEL
39 Koruman : No, I don't expect Qantas to ever drop any Sydney long-haul routes, although they must be kicking themselves that they didn't buy the 777 and can onl
40 LAXintl : Transpac airlines serve SYD as that is where the vast amount of demand and money is to. One day as smaller more efficient planes become available and
41 Koruman : I couldn't agree more - in terms of inbound demand. The problem is that Sydney is the capital city of a state which has been terminally financially m
42 Thegeek : I don't really agree with this. What's the difference in the trip cost between the 77E and 77W? What about the CASM? I'm sure that the extra capacity
43 AA2MM : A little off track : for Sept, UA is offering a net consolidator fare round trip $374 + tax and fuel surcharge ( in some case, almost as much as the n
44 Koruman : The issue here is that the 777-300ER as used by V Australia is a whopping 361 seat aircraft, with 33 Business, 40 Premium Economy and 288 Economy sea
45 Post contains links OP3000 : QF CEO recently went on record saying that one of the four carriers now flying from USA-SYD will be canceling service within a couple of years. DL's r
46 Post contains links OP3000 : QF's CEO recently went on the record predicting one of the four carriers now serving USA-SYD will be out within a couple of years. DL's regional manag
47 ElpinDAB : I'd really like to see how DL's numbers will factor into this, when they become available for this comparison. How are they doing? What is their futu
48 ETA Unknown : AC never operated the A345's to SYD although in southern Summer season later years the A340's were used as more capacity for the 763's... when this ha
49 ANstar : BTRE release the stats on the last working day of te mont usually, so it is going to be the end of SEP before we get an idea on the July loadings.
50 AirNZ : But that is a pure opinion on your part, and yet you are definitively stating as fact what the majority of NZ pax are doing. You stated that NZ would
51 Panamair : DL has only been flying the route since July 1. As mentioned previously, everyone's load factors will look very good for July due to holidays on both
52 ElpinDAB : I really wonder why? Before the 77L entered service, this would have filled the same role. Impressive performance for an A343, if that's what was use
53 ElpinDAB : Okay, thanks. Any estimates, at least? I guess the northern winter will be the determining market. Is this when load factors are highest?
54 Airbazar : LF numbers alone are pointless. I don't know why people pay any attention to LF. It means nothing as far a yields and profitability, especially when a
55 Koruman : No, I'm saying that there are virtually no high-yielding passengers from Sydney to North America on Air NZ whereas BNE and MEL provide a large number
56 Tayser : ^ wasn't so long ago that Air NZ ramped up an advertising campaign around the one-stop service to Los Angeles... it was splashed all over the Nicholas
57 LAXintl : I hear VA is planning on operating a few LAX extra sections over the Christmas/New Years period. Bookings must be strong. I also noticed DL is renumbe
58 WorldTraveler : The ATL tag will help but DL is also renumbering the entire NW network in the next couple months; at first they will all move en masse above the DL i
59 ANstar : So the June results are in..... AUS-USA Qantas 93% United 89% V Aus 78% HA 52% JQ 83% USA-AUS Qantas 91% United 84% V Aus 61% HA 50% JQ 79% A decent i
60 Ikramerica : What happens to all the people who come to the USA but don't return to Oz? Every month it seems that people just disappear into the fabric of America
61 Gemuser : Round the World tickets! Gemuser
62 LAXintl : Man o man, HA is truly posting pathetic LF. Good strong LF results for the others. Those amazing fares sure have stimulate demand. Funny -- now I und
63 Ikramerica : Over 5% of all travelers are round the worlders? I guess it's possible. Yeah, performance seems very poor.
64 Mariner : RTW fares probably much more popular down here than up there. I live in New Zealand and if I want to go to the States or to the UK, it is about the s
65 Ikramerica : True, but always eastbound? That's the part I don't get...
66 Post contains images Mariner : Oh - possibly. It's tough to generalize on that one, but if I were doing it I would probably go through the States, business, see old chums, go on to
67 Gemuser : The other point is that eastbound is a few hours faster. You're going to have been about 40 odd hours in the air anyway, so why not save a few hours
68 ANstar : Or they come back with other carriers like AC, NZ, FJ, CX, SQ etc
69 Ikramerica : Again, why only one direction? Why wouldn't a nearly equal number go with these carriers and come back with a non-stop carrier?
70 Thegeek : Are RTW fares cheaper eastbound? By having the plane a bit more empty coming back from LAX they can fit in more freight. So this imbalance works for
71 BNE : East bound might be faster but for most people it really depends on your schedule, for most of us its the schedule that really decides which way roun
72 DLPMMM : I always try to fly my RTW trips Westbound, The jet lag is much easier to contend with Westbound than flying Eastbound, especially any TATL legs.
73 Ikramerica : I agree that jetlag is much easier to deal with westbound, but at some point, the change is so large either way it's not as important. For example, i
74 LAXintl : I see VA has tweaked its LAX schedule a bit. LAX-SYD Daily but reduced to 6x 01Feb-27Mar2010 LAX-BNE 3x (was this not slated to go 5x after MEL launch
75 Post contains links LAXintl : Just heard VA and EK inked a trans-Tasman codeshare to allow US passengers to connect to EK serivces. According to VA sales here this might eventually
76 Zkpilot : Only on shorter flights... if you are truely flying to the other side of the world it does not matter which way you go as Ikra pointed out.
77 DLDTW1962 : Does anyone have any numbers on how DL is doing on this route? And does anyone think that the DL/VA partnership will be approved? Chuck
78 LAXintl : The July numbers should be out any day which will have Delta's first month of service. For the summer I think they did well LF% wise, but this was on
79 ANstar : Results are out for JULY USA-AUS DL 89% HA 72% JQ 70% QF 94% UA 95% VA 78% AUS-USA DL 80% HA 79% JQ 72% QF 94% UA 92% VA 74% Given the increase in cap
80 Lufthansa : What's really interesting here is the strength of the Qantas flights. As popular as ever. No wonder it's so much harder to find Qantas discounting the
81 Koruman : The real problem here is for Jetstar - 70-72% loads on an LCC model. Ouch. I'm currently at HNL, where I gather that JQ is really struggling in compet
82 AusA380 : A couple of weeks ago had my first A380 flight in J Class from Lax to Syd (final leg of a 13 day round the world!). Flight was absolutely full (tried
83 LACA773 : Is there anyway for VA to get ahold of some 77E/77Ls to lease so they don't have all this extra capacity that's not needed. It does make more sense t
84 QF175 : July 2009 MARKET TOTAL PAX FREIGHT SYD-LAX-SYD 75,601 2,529.6t MEL-LAX-MEL 30,471 408.7t BNE-LAX-BNE 29,957 320.9t More pax travelling inbound than ou
85 Jetlanta : Keep in mind that ALL of these carriers BOUGHT their traffic in July, and will continue to do so for several months, at least. The newer the carrier o
86 DLDTW1962 : Thank you ANstar and LAXintl for the answer to my questions. It always amazes me that UA is packing fuller flights the QF. Wonder why? Is the service
87 MaverickM11 : Almost entirely from carriers that were offering one-stop service between the US and SYD...
88 WorldTraveler : The codeshare has already been approved; the JV has not yet. Given that it will provide frequency mass that neither carrier has on its own, the laws
89 Post contains links LAXintl : Code-share was approved with DJ, not VA. DOT Approved DL-DJ Codeshare, Defers V Australia (by LAXintl Sep 3 2009 in Civil Aviation)
90 DocLightning : This only makes sense if you can connect to Virgin Blue at SYD. And I don't get VA's model because, believe it or not, not everyone in Australia is g
91 DLDTW1962 : Thank you all for answering my questions.
92 Panamair : They have been allowing bookings on their website to some DL domestic destinations (even before the approval of the codeshares) such as SLC and JFK f
93 Viscount724 : Aren't code-shares almost automatically approved? Has the DOT ever disapproved a standard code-share agreement.
94 WorldTraveler : codesharing is not necessarily part of every aviation agreement. There also are limited codeshare authorities available to/from some countries; since
95 LAXintl : It is probably quite fair to say Delta, and others manage to "buy" much of their summer LFs with the incredible pricing. From having seen random actua
96 LACA773 : Far from it. If anything, UA's product is the worst, by far, of three offering nonstop flights from LAX to SYD. I feel it has a lot to do with the ro
97 OP3000 : Even though lately QF has been doing some deep discounting itself. Just on this page I'm typing on came up a banner from them offering LAX or SFO to
98 Tayser : ^ I'll be one of them. VA11/VA12 in Feb/Mar for $1109AUD return inclusive of tax... hello!
99 LAXintl : And August numbers were just published. USA-AUS DL - 67.0% HA - 68.5% JQ - 74.5% QF - 84.9% UA - 74.7% VA - 70.1% AUS-USA DL - 76.4% HA - 73.3% JQ - 8
100 MaverickM11 : And they've bought it primarily off carriers that connect traffic to Australia, like FJ, NZ, and HA. How HA is still flying to SYD is a mystery to me
101 777STL : These are load factor percentages? I'm surprised DL isn't doing better, especially against fellow newcomer VA - which is probably the fairest basis o
102 Reggaebird : Frankly, the numbers for Delta are much better than I would have expected. This is especially true as I fully expect Delta to stop flying the route w
103 Post contains links Mariner : United's CEO Tilton talks about LAX-SYD here: http://www.theage.com.au/travel/trav...in-air-fare-war-20091030-hp2r.html The Age: "United Airlines vows
104 ANstar : They have interline agreements with DL, NW, AS, US & VX beyond LAX. Codesahring with VX/DL also kicks in shortly. Wow... a big drop for DL from their
105 MilesDependent : Regretfully, I think that makes sense. AA makes its relationship with QF work to its advantage, and more efficient than operating its own metal. I th
106 Jetfuel : VA need to start thinking outside the square too PER-CNS-LAX two days a week (dont underestimate the PER-LAX market and a huge boost for CNS too) SYD-
107 N839MH : Well with a very lucrative freight deal Delta has singned for this market, they will be here for the long term. The flight is money positive from what
108 Travelhound : Yes, those QF numbers look really really good! I wonder how much the low fares have stimulated demand. It's interesting how many people I have come a
109 Post contains images Jetfuel : Sorry couldn't edit PER-CNS 3433 km ET 4.0 Hours CNS-PER 4.5 Hours CNS -LAX 11570 km ET 12.5 Hours LAX-CNS 13.5 Hours Turaround CNS 2 HRS, LAX 5 HOURS
110 Post contains links MilesDependent : I would say it's a possibility. Not sure what the yields would be like CNS-LAX. QF used to operate LAX-HNL-CNS many moons ago from memory. I think PE
111 Jetfuel : Ok, the only issue I see there is losing a lot of capacity HNL-LAX as VA wouldn't be allowed any domestic pax. I can see a lot of empty seats HNL-LAX
112 Ben175 : I think this is what VA needs to do to succeed. Stop trying to compete with the big boys and start finding gems in smaller ports. Apart from PER-CNS-
113 Jetfuel : Especially if they can get some quality decent feed into their system fro DL in the USA then BNE-SFO or SYD-SFO could work instead of depending on LA
114 LAXintl : Yes the Aug 2008 LF were - USA-AUS HA - 58.1% JQ - 67.8% QF - 73.1% UA - 64.0% AUS-USA HA - 84.3% JQ - 83.5% QF - 83.7% UA - 73.8% The overall market
115 Gemuser : Jetfuel, Ben175, Milesdependent - dreams on guys dream on. While I love your ideas and some of them may very well be profitable, in the cold light of
116 Jetfuel : Gemuser the reason I say that CNS and PER would work for VA is 1. Only 3 flights a week is not a huge risk with good forward marketing 2. This will ea
117 ANstar : MEL-YVR and SYD-SEA would be load restricted.... as for PER-CNS-LAX... can;t see it happening... I think we will see more JNB/HKT before more LAX. Pr
118 Tayser : The 777 page on wikipedia states the maximum payload range for a 77W is only 5,500nm with a max range of 7,930nm: BNE-LAX - 6,223 nm SYD-LAX - 6,507nm
119 Ha763 : Connecting traffic is not the focus of HA's service to SYD. The HNL-SYD flight is not timed to allow most of the mainland flights to connect to it. H
120 Jetfuel : I might ad that A$1149 return SYD-LAX including all taxes is still not profitable. Fares still need to increase before anybody is still going to survi
121 Gemuser : Sorry, Jetfuel I disagree. I still think VA/DJ & QF/JQ would all make more profit by connecting WA & FNQ traffic into their existing East Coast hubs.
122 Jetfuel : Well Perth has a population of 1,650,000 (2009), Perth ranks fourth amongst the nation's cities, with a growth rate consistently above the national a
123 Zkpilot : Name an aircraft that can do it with the same kind of CASM that doesn't take a hit... The LR has a worse CASM, the A380 is very expensive and has to
124 Jetfuel : You can still the operate the a/c on those routes with full pax plus decent cargo upload. The 77W is still the most flexible option for a variety of
125 Gemuser : Sure. But is it big enough or is there some other factor that makes it more profitable to serve direct rather than connecting thru east coast hubs? D
126 Jetfuel : Lets say that X% pax originate from PER travelling through the eastern hubs. Currently those pax are shared by primarliy QF/DL/VA/NZ. You offer a dir
127 Gemuser : It was with a B767 and lasted less than 5 years, 2 or 3, I think. Loads were very good, yields were in the toilet. If you actually did that, than you
128 Travelhound : Thanks LAXintl !!
129 Jetfuel : My apologies gemuser - you of couse right it was a 763 op Not my money although I do have VBA and QAN shares - just so I can keep an interest in losi
130 Worldrider : yes the A380 is a bit more expensive than a 777w but has lower operating costs..it doen't need to be be full to reach the same revenue as a FULL 777W
131 Zkpilot : 763 are actually not that bad especially with winglets. The 744 is a guzzler also but has a much bigger payload and can be utilized more per day as y
132 LAXintl : This Perth debate is like asking why Boston(or insert a half dozen other large US cities) dont have a flight to Australia. As much as some might might
133 Jetfuel : Australia is a little different. As it is we have a population of less than 10% of the USA. We really only have LAX and to a lesser degree SFO as ent
134 Post contains links NYCAdvantage : Australian watch dogs approved Delta JV with Virgin Blue, how much will US- Australia battle will change, will this work is going to be interesting to
135 Post contains links Zkpilot : A bit more expensive?? US$327.4m average A380 http://www.airbus.com/store/mm_repos...dia_object_file_ListPrices2008.pdf US$271.7m average 77W http://
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