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WN And F9 With Impact On UA At DEN  
User currently offlineNomoreRJs From United States of America, joined exactly 10 years ago today! , 467 posts, RR: 0
Posted (5 years 1 month 4 days 4 hours ago) and read 7591 times:

Hmm, this could get very interesting. There's the thread about WN bidding for F9 (Bankruptcy Court, and WN does a great job of getting what they want).

How will this impact UA and DEN? Will they fight or fold?

The never ending soap opera of the US airline industry continues to amaze me. What's next?

66 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineFlyiguy From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 1105 posts, RR: 0
Reply 1, posted (5 years 1 month 4 days 3 hours ago) and read 7478 times:

I wonder if B6 would come in to the mix for the airplanes and routes...Arn't all F9's airbus equipment set up for direct TV already ? I'm sure they could get the money to make a run of it seeing they are owned 19% by LH who is a big fan of buying other airlines.

Just my 0.02



The opinions I post are of mine and mine alone, not of the airline I work for.
User currently offlineCOERJ145 From United States of America, joined Jun 2005, 1421 posts, RR: 1
Reply 2, posted (5 years 1 month 4 days 2 hours ago) and read 7401 times:



Quoting Flyiguy (Reply 1):
I wonder if B6 would come in to the mix for the airplanes and routes...Arn't all F9's airbus equipment set up for direct TV already ? I'm sure they could get the money to make a run of it seeing they are owned 19% by LH who is a big fan of buying other airlines.

Only problem is F9's Airbus fleet(except the A318s i think) are have CFM-56 engines while B6's has IAE-V2500 engines. Other than union vs. non-union issues, B6 and F9 are pretty similar. It would give B6 better access to the west and relieve OAK and LGB.


User currently offlineAirFrnt From United States of America, joined Jul 2004, 2826 posts, RR: 42
Reply 3, posted (5 years 1 month 4 days 1 hour ago) and read 7329 times:



Quoting NomoreRJs (Thread starter):
How will this impact UA and DEN? Will they fight or fold?

United was already in trouble in Denver. The combined F9+WN carrier would instantly be Southwest's largest station, and de-facto and really their only hub. They would also be larger then UA at Denver, which is a huge problem for UA, because it puts their pricing control significantly at risk.

On the other hand, WN isn't listed by the popular travel sites, so a lot of the travelocity/expedia customers may end up flocking to UA, or any of the other 16 carriers that have Denver ops.


User currently offlineBA From United States of America, joined May 2000, 11153 posts, RR: 59
Reply 4, posted (5 years 1 month 4 days 1 hour ago) and read 7292 times:



Quoting COERJ145 (Reply 2):
Only problem is F9's Airbus fleet(except the A318s i think) are have CFM-56 engines

The A318s also have CFM56 engines. The IAE V2500 is not available on the A318, the other engine option is the PW6000.

Quoting AirFrnt (Reply 3):
They would also be larger then UA at Denver

Not quite, UA will still be largest.

Quote:
United Airlines, a unit of UAL Corp. (UAUA), would still have 50% of Denver market share, while Southwest and Frontier would have about one-third of the market, he said.

http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/...OWJONESDJONLINE001074_FORTUNE5.htm



"Generosity is giving more than you can, and pride is taking less than you need." - Khalil Gibran
User currently offlineEnilria From Canada, joined Feb 2008, 7140 posts, RR: 13
Reply 5, posted (5 years 1 month 4 days 1 hour ago) and read 7267 times:

Any reduction in competition in DEN is good for UA.

User currently offlineAirFrnt From United States of America, joined Jul 2004, 2826 posts, RR: 42
Reply 6, posted (5 years 1 month 4 days 1 hour ago) and read 7259 times:



Quoting BA (Reply 4):
Not quite, UA will still be largest.



Quoting BA (Reply 4):

http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/...OWJONESDJONLINE001074_FORTUNE5.htm

Down Jones is wrong. United itself has 32% of the market share, not 50%, and I have been told that there will be more cutbacks occurring in Denver. Throwing in UAX (which is dicey, because UA doesn't get that revenue) it comes out to around a even 39%, F9 has 22.9% of the market share, while Lynx boosts that up another few percent to around 25% market share. Southwest has 14.9% of the market. The combined entity will have ~39% of the market. It's pretty close to even, even before the cuts.


User currently offlineBA From United States of America, joined May 2000, 11153 posts, RR: 59
Reply 7, posted (5 years 1 month 4 days ago) and read 7212 times:



Quoting AirFrnt (Reply 6):
Down Jones is wrong. United itself has 32% of the market share, not 50%, and I have been told that there will be more cutbacks occurring in Denver. Throwing in UAX (which is dicey, because UA doesn't get that revenue) it comes out to around a even 39%, F9 has 22.9% of the market share, while Lynx boosts that up another few percent to around 25% market share. Southwest has 14.9% of the market. The combined entity will have ~39% of the market. It's pretty close to even, even before the cuts.

United/United Express presently hold 45% of the marketshare, and yes, they should be combined. While United Express flights are not operated by United itself, they are marketed as United flights and are part of the United network.

Southwest has stated that a combined WN/F9 will maintain 1/3 of the marketshare in DEN, so they are implying some capacity reductions which is expected.

Either way, Southwest would still come in at #2. From the Wall Street Journal:

Quote:
If successful, the move would make Dallas-based Southwest the second-largest carrier by number of passengers in Denver, a highly-competitive market where Southwest has been third, behind UAL Corp.'s United Airlines and Frontier.




"Generosity is giving more than you can, and pride is taking less than you need." - Khalil Gibran
User currently offlineUnited1 From United States of America, joined Oct 2003, 5939 posts, RR: 9
Reply 8, posted (5 years 1 month 4 days ago) and read 7212 times:



Quoting AirFrnt (Reply 6):
Throwing in UAX (which is dicey, because UA doesn't get that revenue) it comes out to around a even 39%

Actually UA does get that revenue....UAX is contracted by UA to fly those markets UA receives all of the revenue for the flights.

Quoting AirFrnt (Reply 6):
United itself has 32% of the market share, not 50%

UA and UAX combined have 50%....

Quoting AirFrnt (Reply 6):
I have been told that there will be more cutbacks occurring in Denver.

Source?



Semper Fi - PowerPoint makes us stupid.
User currently offlineAirFrnt From United States of America, joined Jul 2004, 2826 posts, RR: 42
Reply 9, posted (5 years 1 month 4 days ago) and read 7176 times:



Quoting BA (Reply 7):
United/United Express presently hold 45% of the marketshare, and yes, they should be combined. While United Express flights are not operated by United itself, they are marketed as United flights and are part of the United network.

My math was off on this, my bad. After the merger, the market would be pretty closed to split. UA's market share has been on a nose dive in Denver for years.

Quoting BA (Reply 7):

Southwest has stated that a combined WN/F9 will maintain 1/3 of the marketshare in DEN, so they are implying some capacity reductions which is expected.

Reference? Southwest is not going to buy F9, just to hand all that market share to UA. It fails the basic sanity check. As much as people are bitching about what southwest did in the past when it "bought" other companies, remember that Southwest bought them for their market share, not for their employees. I suspect much the same is going on here.


User currently offlineOlympic472 From United States of America, joined Jun 2008, 456 posts, RR: 0
Reply 10, posted (5 years 1 month 4 days ago) and read 7150 times:

DEN is a UA hub so I assume their feed will be within the UA network.
How big is the O&D market for DEN?



Civil Aviation has a "Need for Speed"!
User currently offlineAirFrnt From United States of America, joined Jul 2004, 2826 posts, RR: 42
Reply 11, posted (5 years 1 month 4 days ago) and read 7123 times:



Quoting Olympic472 (Reply 10):
How big is the O&D market for DEN?

Total traffic for the last quarter was just shy of 4 million passengers. Since the beginning of the year, it's about 20 million. Denver has roughly a 60/40 split between O&D and connecting. Roughly 12 million of the passengers are O&D.

According to Denver International Airport, here is the market breakdown as of May:


User currently offlineXT6Wagon From United States of America, joined Feb 2007, 3399 posts, RR: 4
Reply 12, posted (5 years 1 month 4 days ago) and read 7123 times:

UA would be very happy to see F9 go away regardless if its absorbed by WN or not.

If WN buys F9, they are certainly not going to keep 100% of the F9 customers, and would be reducing capacity even if they did, given you would want to reduce a frequency or two on the heaviest covered city pairs to bring the load factor up on the remaining ones to something profitable.

This would bring up the load factor on UA flights as the total capacity declines.


User currently offlineBA From United States of America, joined May 2000, 11153 posts, RR: 59
Reply 13, posted (5 years 1 month 4 days ago) and read 7123 times:



Quoting AirFrnt (Reply 9):
UA's market share has been on a nose dive in Denver for years.

Yes it has, and I imagine this merger will slow down that nose dive, much to UA's relief.

Quoting AirFrnt (Reply 9):
Reference? Southwest is not going to buy F9, just to hand all that market share to UA. It fails the basic sanity check. As much as people are bitching about what southwest did in the past when it "bought" other companies, remember that Southwest bought them for their market share, not for their employees. I suspect much the same is going on here.

You need to keep in mind that F9 and WN overlap on many routes. A combined WN/F9 will see some frequencies cut on those overlapped routes, they won't maintain them all.

It's not realistic to say a combined WN/F9 will be the same size as an independent WN and F9. The nature of consolidation/mergers always leads to some form of combined downsizing. This can be seen in just about every airline merger including AF-KL and DL-NW.

WN bought F9 not just for gained market share, but to eliminate a major competitor. I don't expect a significant reduction in combined service, but they will ultimately find a "sweetspot" between consolidation and maintaining a strong position to face United.

Here is a good article from the Wall Street Journal:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124900419561595825.html

Quoting Olympic472 (Reply 10):
How big is the O&D market for DEN?

About 60%, so approximately 30 million passengers.



"Generosity is giving more than you can, and pride is taking less than you need." - Khalil Gibran
User currently offlineUnited1 From United States of America, joined Oct 2003, 5939 posts, RR: 9
Reply 14, posted (5 years 1 month 4 days ago) and read 7112 times:



Quoting AirFrnt (Reply 9):

Southwest has stated that a combined WN/F9 will maintain 1/3 of the marketshare in DEN, so they are implying some capacity reductions which is expected.

Reference? Southwest is not going to buy F9, just to hand all that market share to UA. It fails the basic sanity check.

WN cutting capacity at DEN would not be that crazy of an idea. I haven't checked in the past few months but WNs loads out of DEN were rather low, combining a few WN and F9 flights together and cutting some capacity out of DEN might boost WNs numbers (and profitablility) at DEN.



Semper Fi - PowerPoint makes us stupid.
User currently offlineAirFrnt From United States of America, joined Jul 2004, 2826 posts, RR: 42
Reply 15, posted (5 years 1 month 4 days ago) and read 7111 times:



Quoting BA (Reply 13):
You need to keep in mind that F9 and WN overlap on many routes. A combined WN/F9 will see some frequencies cut on those overlapped routes, they won't maintain them all.

There will be some capacity cuts, but I expect that it might be more then compensated for by new traffic to Mexico, plus breaking up trans-cons, plus more expansion from WN. If history is anything to go by, WN is going to try and put UA in the grave in DEN, just like it put the nails into US at many sites.


User currently offlineKiwiandrew From New Zealand, joined Jun 2005, 8556 posts, RR: 13
Reply 16, posted (5 years 1 month 3 days 23 hours ago) and read 7083 times:
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I have to say that overall if this goes through it will probably be a positive for UA . Facing one competitor ( albeit a very powerful one ) has to be better than facing two .

Furthermore , I believe that WN is really only interested in F9s gates/slots and maybe a few of the employees . My belief is that WN have no interest in the aircraft , or in the hub-and-spoke network which runs totally counter to WNs high utilisation point to point philosophy . (I am aware that in recent years WN has increased its proportion of connecting traffic , but only where it does not conflict with the high utilisation model . ) I think that those posters who believe that F9 is toast if this bid succeeds are correct .


In effect DEN would go from being two connecting hubs and one point to point focus city to being one connecting hub and one point to point focus city .



Moderation in all things ... including moderation ;-)
User currently offlineBA From United States of America, joined May 2000, 11153 posts, RR: 59
Reply 17, posted (5 years 1 month 3 days 23 hours ago) and read 7073 times:



Quoting AirFrnt (Reply 15):
There will be some capacity cuts, but I expect that it might be more then compensated for by new traffic to Mexico, plus breaking up trans-cons, plus more expansion from WN.

Perhaps so, but seeing the state of the airline industry, such increases will probably be phased in over time as part of the combined airline's growth.

WN has said it intends to dispose of Frontier's Airbuses and replace them with Boeing 737s. They probably will not be replace them one by one, so there will probably be an initial period of combined downsizing before growth.

I'm very curious to see if Southwest intends to incorporate some aspects of Frontier's business model. I'm particularly curious what they have in mind for Frontier's Mexico network.

Despite what Southwest is claiming, these are two very different airlines.



"Generosity is giving more than you can, and pride is taking less than you need." - Khalil Gibran
User currently offlineAirFrnt From United States of America, joined Jul 2004, 2826 posts, RR: 42
Reply 18, posted (5 years 1 month 3 days 23 hours ago) and read 7066 times:



Quoting BA (Reply 17):

I'm very curious to see if Southwest intends to incorporate some aspects of Frontier's business model. I'm particularly curious what they have in mind for Frontier's Mexico network.

They have already stated that one of the big reasons for this was to get their mits on Frontier's mexican system.


User currently offlineOlympic472 From United States of America, joined Jun 2008, 456 posts, RR: 0
Reply 19, posted (5 years 1 month 3 days 23 hours ago) and read 7026 times:

AirFrnt, Thanks for the data.

My guess is that WN will gain most of the O&D traffic because before the proposed merger, when travelers had a choice between UA and F9, they chose F9. While the same can be said for F9 vs WN, I think the F9 and WN models are more similar.

UA will need to strengthen their DEN hub with more flights / feed from F9 destinations. I do not think there is a choice for them.



Civil Aviation has a "Need for Speed"!
User currently offlineBriguy1974 From United States of America, joined Aug 2005, 133 posts, RR: 0
Reply 20, posted (5 years 1 month 3 days 22 hours ago) and read 6982 times:

SW combined with F9 will still lack the international options passengers have if they choose to fly UA. The possibility of SW gaining MX market share is no threat to UA. UA does not see the MX leisure market as a major source of income for it. UA has the equipment and the international experience to operate any MX destination it chooses. It chooses not to. SW/F9 does not offer the connectivity that UA offers. UA and its express partners would still offer far more destination pairs than a SW/F9 combo. UA wants this to happen. A much better scenerio than RP running F9 as a third compertitor in DEN.

User currently offlineAWACSooner From United States of America, joined Jan 2008, 1902 posts, RR: 1
Reply 21, posted (5 years 1 month 3 days 21 hours ago) and read 6928 times:

If WN does indeed get F9, here's what I see happening as far as routes are concerned:
1. All the intl. routes are done.
2. Reduction in combined routing (ex: OKC-DEN is currently 2x daily on WN and 4x daily on F9...2x mainline and 2x Lynx). Look for maybe 3 n/s on WN when this is all done.
3. All F9/Lynx planes go bye-bye...therefore, all Lynx cities go with em.
4. Overlapping areas where F9 and WN fly into separate airports (ex: CMH/DAY, CAK/CLE) are consolidated (DAY and CAK are closed).
5. WN gets DCA slots (probably uses them to MDW instead of DEN)
6. More LGA slots...probably keeps majority of them on DEN-LGA routing, maybe 1 goes to HOU-LGA.

All in all, I think the WN deal is gonna be better in the long run for the folks at F9 over the RW deal.


User currently offlineAirFrnt From United States of America, joined Jul 2004, 2826 posts, RR: 42
Reply 22, posted (5 years 1 month 3 days 16 hours ago) and read 6788 times:



Quoting Olympic472 (Reply 19):
My guess is that WN will gain most of the O&D traffic because before the proposed merger, when travelers had a choice between UA and F9, they chose F9. While the same can be said for F9 vs WN, I think the F9 and WN models are more similar.

It's a opportunity for UA to win back some of the hearts and minds in Denver. A lot of people will be pissed about F9.

Quoting Briguy1974 (Reply 20):
SW combined with F9 will still lack the international options passengers have if they choose to fly UA.

Not like UA does anything internationally from Denver anyways.

Quoting AWACSooner (Reply 21):
1. All the intl. routes are done.

Have you actually read anything in this thread. WN explicitly said in their press release that part of the reason they want F9 is for it's Mexican route system.

Quoting AWACSooner (Reply 21):
3. All F9/Lynx planes go bye-bye...therefore, all Lynx cities go with em.

Jury is still out here.

Quoting AWACSooner (Reply 21):
5. WN gets DCA slots (probably uses them to MDW instead of DEN)

Slots don't get automatically transfered.


User currently offlineRidgid727 From United States of America, joined Jul 2008, 1115 posts, RR: 0
Reply 23, posted (5 years 1 month 3 days 16 hours ago) and read 6772 times:



Quoting AirFrnt (Reply 22):
Slots don't get automatically transfered

Not so sure about that, if they continue operating Frontier as they say they are going to for the short term.


User currently offlineFlyiguy From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 1105 posts, RR: 0
Reply 24, posted (5 years 1 month 3 days 14 hours ago) and read 6605 times:



Quoting COERJ145 (Reply 2):
Only problem is F9's Airbus fleet(except the A318s i think) are have CFM-56 engines while B6's has IAE-V2500 engines. Other than union vs. non-union issues, B6 and F9 are pretty similar. It would give B6 better access to the west and relieve OAK and LGB.

Not a big issue, look at Us Airways and America West...Same situation with engines...I think that both the A319 & A319's would be a perfecr fit to fill the gap between the 190's and A320's.
That would leave a fleet with the aircraft to fill any seat gap from 100 to 150 seats and the aircraft are already Live TV equipped...The hard part though as you put would be to De-Unionize the F9 people... But I think the overall chance to add a DEN hub would prevail greater for B6 to acheive a west coast hub like JFK is in the east.

Any thoughts ?



The opinions I post are of mine and mine alone, not of the airline I work for.
25 Steex : I believe WN could continue to use the F9 DCA slots on the F9 certificate for DEN flights, but that is all. As beyond-perimeter slots, they would be
26 DiscoverCSG : If UA gets that revenue, why would anybody become a contract carrier for UAX?
27 STT757 : I don't think B6 has ever seriously considered a merge (acquasition) with F9, for B6 I strongly believe NK is on their radar. Gives them a great tie
28 Olympic472 : This is becoming a F9 B6 WN thread. Keeping on topic re UA, If I am not wrong, I believe UA sells the tickets and pay the UAX carriers for the flights
29 LAXdude1023 : All I know is that if WN and F9 merge, the HQ will almost certainly be in Dallas. Im all for that because that probably means more jobs will be coming
30 FWAERJ : I wouldn't be surprised if UA makes a "dark horse" bid for F9 to defend and grow its market share at DEN. Tilton favors industry consolidation, and an
31 LAXdude1023 : I feel pretty certain that if UA made a bid for F9 right now, it would mean the end of them. They need to get their cards in order first.
32 Steex : That is correct, the UAX carriers are paid per departure for the majority of flights regardless of flight load (like virtually every other regional c
33 FreequentFlier : It may seem counter-intuitive, but I think the biggest winner in the F9-WN sweepstakes is United. They get to sit back, hold on to their cash, while o
34 Mastyc : I think if Southwest does it right then there won't be a huge backlash. That means bringing in the employees to make sure that they are on their side
35 SlcDeltaRUmd11 : I don't think UA is excited at all about facing an even LARGER WN in DEN in the future UA already tried to take on WN once before it was called shuttl
36 Bluesky02 : No doubt. Frontier Headquarters is in a one-story office building in the parking lot of a hotel on Tower Road just a few miles from DIA. Not very lar
37 FreequentFlier : UA competes with WN in 4 of its 5 hubs (IAD, DEN, SFO, and LAX). Throw in MDW to make it 5. Then add OAK and BWI as major stations right near UA hubs
38 Bluesky02 : Not according to Southwest Airlines. From the Denver Post today: "The move also aims directly at United Airlines, which with its affiliates holds 48
39 Ridgid727 : If they acquire F9, they will have one new gate in SLC and a shared gate with with AA, also Continental is moving over to the the B gates with United
40 F9Animal : I have to disagree with you on this. I think UA would actually be saddened to see F9 go. Look at the big picture here. UA has lost market share all o
41 Flashmeister : I would be very surprised to see any bid by UA, simply because they're already on the borderline of violating their liquidity covenants with lenders,
42 Ual777 : They will bring back MEX and LHR once the economy picks back up. Southwest is full of crap too. What do you expect them to say? We are buying out DEN
43 Bluesky02 : I don't think you are reading what Southwest said in context. Southwest's point was that United has a huge operation in Denver, and they are the true
44 Ual777 : I agree, however I think WN is shooting itself in the foot with this one. F9 is the LCC competition for WN, but they also carry a lot of business pax
45 F9Animal : I have to give WN an upper hand on this one. They do take pretty good care of their employees. I wish all the airlines would emulate the way that WN
46 Post contains links F9fan : On Southwest's blog, they stated the following; Now, here is a list of current non-stop routes out of DEN on UA that are not served by F9 and/or WN. C
47 AirFrnt : The vast majority of these, the answer will be no. The markets are simply too small. Remember when everyone was screaming that WN had to buy smaller
48 Post contains links Wwtraveler99 : Can some one explain this to me? I have heard this many time. There system wide LF for 2Q09 was 77.0%. So what is considered a low LF. Keep in mind t
49 United1 : Less then 50% on average to me is low, as I said I haven't looked in a while but DEN was averaging fairly low loads for WN.
50 Post contains links Flashmeister : I know that this thread is about F9, but I couldn't let this go unrebutted. Here's data directly from United's most recent 10-Q filed with the Securi
51 United1 : Doubtful.... UA currently has no credit card holdback of any kind, should UAs cash balance dip bellow a certain level the amount of cash on holdback
52 United1 : I think I will have to disagree with you on both of your points. If WN wins the battle for F9 WN is going to start consolidating and cutting cities t
53 Flashmeister : No, but going below these thresholds does allow some debt to be accelerated, and even in the case of a relatively small holdback, the impact on cash
54 United1 : No F9 is not moving but there are a few rumors about UA moving... It would look something like this... 1. Republic acquires F9 2. UA and F9 announce
55 Flashmeister : I find this possibility to be exceedingly unlikely. #2 and #3 would have to go in reverse: there's no way in hell that a codeshare at DEN between UA
56 Ual777 : UA will be getting the money for spare parts transaction in Q3. That was around 150 million if i recall correctly. Their cash is fine for the short t
57 Flashmeister : Only if by "short to medium term" you mean the next two to four quarters... and that's without any further deterioriation in their financial performa
58 Ual777 : I mean 6-8 quarters if nothing changes. All of the airlines should see improving results over the next 12 months.
59 Wwtraveler99 : I am not saying that there are not flights less than 50% but I would say on average there are at least 70%. I would also say that LF have averaged ab
60 DeltaL1011man : agreed. As Things shift the smaller markets that only UA and F9 are in will go UA only. IMHO the Q400s will be gone. All those routes will go back to
61 Post contains links United1 : UA generated 109 million in cash during the quarter.....where do you see them burning cash during the quarter? http://phx.corporate-ir.net/External..
62 AirFrnt : If you actually go follow UA's discussions on the financial boards, you will find out that UA is working hard right now to renogiate their covenants,
63 United1 : I do and I know they are working hard at renegotiationg there CC processing agreements which is one of the reasons why I am not so worried about them
64 DeltaL1011man : If UA likes the sound of chap 11 (again) or Chap 7 then they will bid for F9. Don't think for one second that WN and likely RW wont get int a bidding
65 AirFrnt : The fact that they are working so hard to renegotiate terms on a withholding arrangement that is extremely beneficial for them should worry you.
66 United1 : Why would any business attempting to renegotiate an agreement into more favorable terms worry me? Every business, even the most stable of companies,
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