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Quality Of Order Books  
User currently offlineOlle From Sweden, joined Feb 2007, 297 posts, RR: 0
Posted (5 years 1 month 3 weeks 2 days 12 hours ago) and read 1511 times:

Before the crisis started, there were considerations that 1/3 (correct me if I am wrong) of the Airbus orderbook would dissapear and that the Boeing orderbook was of better quality.

Half way into the crisis and with and recovery on the way what has happend?

5 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 31003 posts, RR: 86
Reply 1, posted (5 years 1 month 3 weeks 2 days 10 hours ago) and read 1438 times:
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In June, Airbus CEO Tom Enders said Airbus could absorb up to 1000 cancellations, however he did not expect such a figure to be reached.

Airbus senior salesman John Leahey has said he was worried Airbus could sell 100 planes (net after cancellations) in 2009. As of early July, Airbus appears to have been at 68 net sales.

Boeing is currently at 40 net sales for the year through this week.


User currently offlineOlle From Sweden, joined Feb 2007, 297 posts, RR: 0
Reply 2, posted (5 years 1 month 3 weeks 2 days 9 hours ago) and read 1373 times:

Considering the last years purchases of thousends of airplanes this cannot be to bad?

User currently offlinePrebennorholm From Denmark, joined Mar 2000, 6453 posts, RR: 54
Reply 3, posted (5 years 1 month 3 weeks 2 days 9 hours ago) and read 1352 times:

In the present situation I could see airliner order cancelations as a "three stage rocket".

1.
First customers will negotiate deferals. No problem as long as other customers want their planes earlier than they could otherwise get them.

2.
When that isn't possible any longer, then customers will try to sell their orders to other takers at reduced price, and that way lose less money than the downpayment.

3.
When none of the above is possible, then cancelation is the only outcome, when you cannot use the plane.

That could mean that if the "crisis" lasts long enough, then cancelations will have some "ketchup effect", which we haven't seen yet.

But I wonder what the reason should be that B's order book should be less prone to canceletions than A's order book.

On the other hand, not many 787 customers need to worry much about deferals or cancelations these days. Even if they may not see any business for the planes, they have ordered, then for the near future at least they can sit down and relax and cash in late delivery compensations from Boeing.



Always keep your number of landings equal to your number of take-offs, Preben Norholm
User currently offlineRwessel From United States of America, joined Jan 2007, 2353 posts, RR: 2
Reply 4, posted (5 years 1 month 3 weeks 2 days ago) and read 1278 times:
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Quoting Stitch (Reply 1):
Boeing is currently at 40 net sales for the year through this week.

Although they're still about a billion dollars in the hole in terms of dollars for the year, at least looking at list prices. The recent bunch of 777 orders have really cut the number. The +86 737s might make up the units score vs. the -60 787s, but that trade really hurts in terms of dollars.


User currently offlineAstuteman From United Kingdom, joined Jan 2005, 10039 posts, RR: 96
Reply 5, posted (5 years 1 month 3 weeks 1 day 23 hours ago) and read 1259 times:
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Quoting Olle (Thread starter):
Half way into the crisis and with and recovery on the way what has happend?

It would be interesting to know how many cancellations there have actually been since "the beginning of the crisis"
(does start 2008 sound like a convenient start point for the count?)

Rgds


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