Keesje From Netherlands, joined Apr 2001, 10189 posts, RR: 52 Posted (5 months 2 weeks 5 days 12 hours ago) and read 20722 times:
Media reports say Boeing confirmed to Qantas as well as Qatar first flight is now schedule for late 2009. So first flight is ~1/2 year delayed from the previous June 2009 first flight schedule.
Boeing says they will come up with a new flight test schedule late September. At that moment it will become clear if they stick to the 7 month schedule or a revised one. It will determine if EIS with ANA will be Q3 2010.
Based on progress sofar and recent aircraft certification campaigns I think a testflight and certification schedule of about 12-14 months not very irrealistic, moving EIS to Q1 or Q2 2011. EIS in 2010 has a low probability IMO.
757GB From Uruguay, joined Feb 2009, 401 posts, RR: 1 Reply 1, posted (5 months 2 weeks 5 days 12 hours ago) and read 20490 times:
Thank you for the information. It will be interesting to see if there is any official announcements regarding the fix. I would say that if they are able to give a time line for first flight to some airlines it would mean that they are confident about the fix. Any word as to whether it´s being tested already? I haven't found anything anywhere.
Regarding the test schedule, I am guessing it will all depend on whether any other problems come up. We can see new delays (hope not!) or a smooth certification process, even if it's not just 7 months.
EbbUK From United Kingdom, joined May 2006, 965 posts, RR: 1 Reply 2, posted (5 months 2 weeks 5 days 12 hours ago) and read 20404 times:
Well the new date to fly seems to be corroborated around the globe. I think I will put money on this date. I simply cannot believe there will be another delay. Even if it takes off to just 1000 feet circles and lands again, Boeing must get this plane to fly Nov to Dec 09.
GlobeEx From Germany, joined Aug 2007, 580 posts, RR: 7 Reply 3, posted (5 months 2 weeks 5 days 12 hours ago) and read 20375 times:
If they manage to do that...
Quoting Keesje (Thread starter): Media reports say Boeing confirmed to Qantas as well as Qatar first flight is now schedule for late 2009.
.... and get this one going:
Quoting Keesje (Thread starter): It will determine if EIS with ANA will be Q3 2010.
..... I will really tip my hat, as I don't see it coming yet. But if they do,.... than one could (maybe for the first time concerning the 787) say WELL DONE BOEING. ....... let's hope and see.
In the game of chess you can never let your adversary see your pieces.
Slz396 From Belgium, joined Oct 2001, 2522 posts, RR: 21 Reply 4, posted (5 months 2 weeks 5 days 11 hours ago) and read 20277 times:
One of the keys to knowing if they will stick to the compressed flight test schedule or not, is to know how quick they can modify all test planes once the fix is tested and signed off. FF may indeed very well happen early December once the tested fix is installed on ZA0001, but to make a compressed test schedule work, they'll need more than one plane in the air.
From what we've been seeing, it sounds like it will take several weeks to install the fix and it wasn't sure this could be done in parallel, so depending this issue, we may already have a first clue as to whether or not they will remain committed to the idea of a compressed schedule.
Personally, even if they could install the fix in parallel on all of the test planes, it would be sound to give some extra margin to the test program, because quite frankly, there's no glory to be won from having to announce delivery delays yet again in a few months time!
On the other hand, Boeing might be eager to finally be able to bring some good news ("Hey guys, we can actually still build a plane that can leave the ground too!"), without having to cope with all the reactions from angry customers who'll only care about EIS with their own airline.
In the end, FF may be a big event for the company and a major milestone for aviation enthousiasts, but to the customers, it is almost a non-issue really. What counts to them is EIS with their airline and here Boeing hasn't been playing ball yet...
What was it? 27 months of delay on average according to ILFC?
And that was before the wing fix delayed FF by almost half a year and before the news got out Alenia is not able to mass produce the barrel segments to specification!
Rheinwaldner From Switzerland, joined Jan 2008, 871 posts, RR: 6 Reply 5, posted (5 months 2 weeks 5 days 11 hours ago) and read 20217 times:
Keesje, these are your most optimistic 787 prognosis since a long time.
The uncertainty starts with the claimed first flight date in the thread title. The background noise of unofficial statements that claim no first flight in ´09 is too loud IMO. In such a communication climate usualy Boeing´s prediction turned out to be wrong.
I don´t have to say more. Gladly I would accept to be disproved.
Parapente From United Kingdom, joined Mar 2006, 495 posts, RR: 0 Reply 6, posted (5 months 2 weeks 5 days 11 hours ago) and read 20112 times:
Good news. I tend to agree that with all the things that are happeneing to the 787 - and Boeings desire (need) not to slip up again - Q2 2011 is far more likley/realistic for EIS.
How problematic or not this is depends I guess as to whether the A350 timetable begins to slip further or not.
Frigatebird From Netherlands, joined Jun 2008, 450 posts, RR: 0 Reply 7, posted (5 months 2 weeks 5 days 11 hours ago) and read 19902 times:
Maybe I've become a bit too sceptical, but first I want to see confirmed that the fix Boeing has designed will actually WORK! And since they've been quite a bit off the mark in their original design, this is something I'm most eager to hear about.
Quoting Keesje (Thread starter): Based on progress sofar and recent aircraft certification campaigns I think a testflight and certification schedule of about 12-14 months not very irrealistic, moving EIS to Q1 or Q2 2011. EIS in 2010 has a low probability IMO.
Have to agree with you now. With the recent problems with Alenia's barrels and (though unsubstantiaded) rumors about software certification, it doesn't seem unlikely some more hickups will occur during testing.
Quoting Slz396 (Reply 4): One of the keys to knowing if they will stick to the compressed flight test schedule or not, is to know how quick they can modify all test planes once the fix is tested and signed off. FF may indeed very well happen early December once the tested fix is installed on ZA0001, but to make a compressed test schedule work, they'll need more than one plane in the air.
Well, that is true of course, but don't forget that in their original (compressed) flight test schedule, the six test planes weren't supposed to be flying within the same month either. When EIS will be delayed, it's more likely because of problems during flight testing. For the 787 this is far more likely IMO, as a result of too much outsourcing - especially design work!
Quoting Rheinwaldner (Reply 5): Keesje, these are your most optimistic 787 prognosis since a long time
Keesje has been rather consequent in his claims that flight testing will take 12-14 months, IIRC...
flown on: 146,318,319,320,321,AB6,332,343,722,732/3/4/5/G/8,742,74E,744,752,762,763,772,77E,773,77W,E90,F50,M11,M82
Dougbr2006 From Brazil, joined Oct 2006, 349 posts, RR: 1 Reply 8, posted (5 months 2 weeks 5 days 11 hours ago) and read 19869 times:
Quoting 757GB (Reply 1): Any word as to whether it´s being tested already? I haven't found anything anywhere.
I don't think the fix is a quick slap it together issue. Boeing ain't so stupid as to rush a critical modification and then get bad figures. The access to the area is not so great and the type of repair until not really made public in detail is not as simple to do as they tried to make out at the press con. If you can imagine trying to cut a elongated c channel into a stringer in a restricted area and maintain the accuracy of the cut and tolerances, then fit the titanium patches, making sure that its perfect so as not to cause problems due to too much material removal or not enough ! as it could really cause problems if not. You just have to look at the fuselage skin ripple problem that has recently surfaced to know that what they are doing is a new science, did they get the calculations right? On the fuselage they blamed the stringer height tolerance, imagine cutting CFRP and getting it wrong, the results especially on a wing will be more critical !!!!!
As it stands we don't know if the work has started on the test frame, we know its in prep and they are probably test sizing the pieces that they've made to make sure the auto cad/catia got it right!
The fact that an announcement is being left till September indicates that testing of the fix will occur not long before any announcement, they need those figures and a green light to be able to start installation on the other flight test aircraft and produce a realistic flight schedule and delivery forecast. In another thread the mention of cold soak tests was raised and this will be an issue if they don't get enough flying done to send an aircraft for the tests while winter is still cold enough.
In any case we are all just plucking from the air, the day it flies, will sure take a lot of weight off Boeing's shoulders, should the flight testing go off without a hitch !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Rheinwaldner From Switzerland, joined Jan 2008, 871 posts, RR: 6 Reply 9, posted (5 months 2 weeks 5 days 10 hours ago) and read 19709 times:
Quoting Frigatebird (Reply 7): Quoting Rheinwaldner (Reply 5):
Keesje, these are your most optimistic 787 prognosis since a long time
Keesje has been rather consequent in his claims that flight testing will take 12-14 months, IIRC...
This is not the part which I specifically meant. As I wrote the time until flight testing begins may be a bit more uncertain as suggested by the thread title. I agree with the part about flight testing duration.
Stitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 16760 posts, RR: 64 Reply 10, posted (5 months 2 weeks 5 days 10 hours ago) and read 19511 times:
Latest rumors I have been hearing from NH is that they're thinking ZA100 will arrive around Q4 2010.
Baroque From Australia, joined Apr 2006, 11463 posts, RR: 53 Reply 13, posted (5 months 2 weeks 5 days 9 hours ago) and read 19097 times:
Quoting Astuteman (Reply 12): Quoting Stitch (Reply 10):
Latest rumors I have been hearing from NH is that they're thinking ZA100 will arrive around Q4 2010.
Just a memory jog - when should it have arrived originally?
Mmmm. Is it not time for an update of the table of dates? Was it WM or is it so long since the last version that I cannot remember who posted it?
Manfredj From United States of America, joined Mar 2007, 913 posts, RR: 0 Reply 14, posted (5 months 2 weeks 5 days 8 hours ago) and read 18586 times:
Quoting Astuteman (Reply 12): Just a memory jog - when should it have arrived originally?
Rattling the Saber astute? It's not like you to ask a question like that. If you really didn't already know the answer to that, I'll gladly streak Boeing field on the day of first flight.
DocLightning From United States of America, joined Nov 2005, 8097 posts, RR: 50 Reply 15, posted (5 months 2 weeks 5 days 8 hours ago) and read 18458 times:
Quoting EbbUK (Reply 2): I simply cannot believe there will be another delay.
I agree. A delay to the 787 program would be UNTHINKABLE.
(Hands EbbUK a towel to wipe off the sarcasm).
Quoting Astuteman (Reply 12):
Just a memory jog - when should it have arrived originally?
Wait! I know this one! *raises hand and bounces up and down* Pick me! Pick me!
Brendows From Norway, joined Apr 2006, 996 posts, RR: 3 Reply 17, posted (5 months 2 weeks 5 days 8 hours ago) and read 18286 times:
Quoting Slz396 (Reply 4): From what we've been seeing, it sounds like it will take several weeks to install the fix and it wasn't sure this could be done in parallel, so depending this issue, we may already have a first clue as to whether or not they will remain committed to the idea of a compressed schedule.
Where have you seen that it will take several weeks to install the fix and that it couldn't be done in parallel?
Yes, whether the fix works or not has to be verified first on the static test aircraft, but they have several positions where they can install the fix: one out on the flight line, one of the paint hangars will be used for (at least) MSN001, and they can do this inside the assembly building too.
Yes, the area where the fix will be installed is cramped, but I have seen no article stating that it will take weeks to install the fix on each aircraft.
Quoting Astuteman (Reply 12):
Just a memory jog - when should it have arrived originally?
Slz396 From Belgium, joined Oct 2001, 2522 posts, RR: 21 Reply 18, posted (5 months 2 weeks 5 days 8 hours ago) and read 17797 times:
Quoting Stitch (Reply 10): Latest rumors I have been hearing from NH is that they're thinking ZA100 will arrive around Q4 2010.
Correction, they are saying they EXPECT it in Q4 2010, which is merely a way of keeping the pressure high.
As a customer, the last thing you'd want to do is to let a manufacturer which has been fooling around with you for so long off the hook all too easily, so what they're doing here is just pretending they assume the current problems will result in nothing but a linear shift to the EIS.
When Boeing then comes around and tells them "It's flying all right, but euh... you see, it's going to take us a bit longer to test it than we had first planned on, so you won't be getting the first plane till 2011", they can then say: "Oh no, please, that a huge problem, you'll need to compensate us for that".
There's more to this than meets the eye and both sides are making sure the other don't know what they have up their sleeve, so just blindly believing all that is said is a rather naive way to judge the state of this program, as the Potemkin roll-out scam or the first flight fiasco have shown. On both occasions we were told the 787 would fly pretty soon (on the last occasion, it would even fly the next few days!), yet on both occasions it was still nowhere but in the hangar months and even years later, getting torn apart for the zillionth time to install yet another quickfix solution.
Checking the talk against factual evidence, common sense and other programs, rather than contractual lauses from the past some party still quotes from for purely legal reasons, might give a far better clue as to where the 787 really stands and doing so leads to an EIS in 2011 at best...
Lightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 5508 posts, RR: 87 Reply 20, posted (5 months 2 weeks 5 days 7 hours ago) and read 16866 times:
Quoting Frigatebird (Reply 7): Maybe I've become a bit too sceptical, but first I want to see confirmed that the fix Boeing has designed will actually WORK!
Don't worry, the FAA and JAA are sceptical too (on ALL aircraft). So this will be reviewed under a microscope. Its not good to bring anything to their attention. Much better to slip the paperwork through.
Quoting DocLightning (Reply 15): I agree. A delay to the 787 program would be UNTHINKABLE.
So 'best case' is Q3 2010? Or two years behind schedule. Pessimistic/realistic could be as late as May 2011. What, are they trying to let Airbus bring A380 production up to speed?
Quoting Brendows (Reply 17): Where have you seen that it will take several weeks to install the fix and that it couldn't be done in parallel?
As you note, this sort of work can easily be done in parallel. But as to the time, weeks would be my 'thumb in the wind' estimate. There has been no shorter published interval. Note: The time will drop as the crews learn the task.
Pratt lost their reputation for forthright information to customers with the JT9D and never recovered it (for good reason, sadly). I really hope Boeing isn't going down that path. Airbus took their medicine early and was forthright with a long delay on the A380, Boeing had better meet or beat their next schedule.
Quoting Lightsaber (Reply 20): Airbus took their medicine early and was forthright with a long delay on the A380
It's unfortunate in a way. The A380 had one BIG problem, which pretty much forced Airbus to come clean at the front.
The 787 seems to have had problems drip-fed.
As you say, I think the moving target is more damaging than the actual length of the delay.
Whatever the length, the 787 should be worth the wait.
Which of course is the other aspect of the risk.
Late but delivers the goods?
Late but doesn't deliver the goods?
I'm hoping Boeing are using the extra time fruitfully in other areas, in the same way that Airbus did on the A380..
Art From Lebanon, joined Feb 2005, 2307 posts, RR: 0 Reply 22, posted (5 months 2 weeks 5 days 6 hours ago) and read 16421 times:
Quoting Dougbr2006 (Reply 8): In another thread the mention of cold soak tests was raised and this will be an issue if they don't get enough flying done to send an aircraft for the tests while winter is still cold enough.
How much flying do they have to do before deciding to send one of the test aircraft somewhere perishingly cold?
Manfredj From United States of America, joined Mar 2007, 913 posts, RR: 0 Reply 23, posted (5 months 2 weeks 5 days 6 hours ago) and read 16302 times:
Quoting Lightsaber (Reply 20): Airbus took their medicine early and was forthright with a long delay on the A380, Boeing had better meet or beat their next schedule.
Have you every had an appointment you were running late for? You called to let them know you were behind schedule. Then you misplace your keys. They you hit traffic. While waiting in traffic you ran out of fuel.
I don't think the "proposed schedule" for the 787 is much different. If you didn't foresee these problems until they came to surface, what reason would you have to delay your schedule?
We are dealing with a set of circumstances that are different from those of the 380. The fastener problem, when it arose, was given a timetable. Then Boeing workers went on strike. The airplane was all but ready to fly. Stress marks were found around the wings. I firmly believe there was no intent on Boeing's part to mislead the public nor its investors as to when they would meet their deadlines.
Only difference is, Boeing lucked out in that they had a recession to deal with and their customers were more than happy to defer their deliveries.
Pylon101 From Russia, joined Feb 2008, 457 posts, RR: 0 Reply 24, posted (5 months 2 weeks 5 days 6 hours ago) and read 15898 times:
"Between the wish and the thing, the world lies waiting."
Cormac McCarthy's "All the Pretty Horses"
25 EPA001: It for sure will be a big event. As an enthusiast I am looking forward to this much delayed highlight in the B787 program. If I remember correct your
26 Lightsaber: I think this will happen too. RR is certainly using the time to improve the low turbine on the Trent 1000. Nitpick, they had two major problems with
27 Stitch: Well when the A380 cleared the $20 billion mark, Airbus was mumbling 450 frames. The 787 will likely clear that total dollar mark, as well, when all
28 Cessna172RG: I still say it will be 2028 until the next taxi test. By then airlines will all be using A350s all over the place and this will become the A340-500 of
29 Manfredj: I'm certainly not willing to take a guess at the break even point for either aircraft as there are too many variables. I think 600-700 is a little mu
30 EPA001: It has done a lot for future Airbus products. The A350-XWB is the first plane showing further improvements on technology developed for the A380. This
31 757GB: Nice video on Randy's blog of the ZA002 taxi tests (different viewpoint from the other videos I've seen). Nothing really new in the article, only sayi
32 BillReid: Seriously, there are some very valuable staff at B that have experienced some very interesting scenarios. I am sure A would love all the "down and di
34 Lightsaber: Interesting estimate. A little higher than I was projecting, but not unreasonable. In either case, the same conclusion is reached, the project will b
35 Stitch: It might be too high. I just figured an A380 sold for more money than a 787 so it should take more 787 sales to recover the same amount of program co
36 EPA001: I remember them (Airbus) speaking of 450 to 500 frames without giving an exact number. Stitch is right in mentioning this number.
37 Astuteman: It may be, but it's based around the technologies developed on the A380, perhaps more than you could imagine, including the CFRP panels on its fusela
38 Lightsaber: I probably wasn't clear, we agree on the concept. Since my break even number would be a function of glasses of wine... let's just agree ballpark numb
39 AirNz: Hold on, let's get both accurate, and real, here. What massive delay are you now attributing to the Boeing strike of last year, and how long has that
40 OA412: I've noticed that a lot of people on here are trying to place the blame for the 787's delay on everyone but Boeing themselves. The fact of the matter
41 Keesje: "(O)ur focus is on developing and implementing a detailed plan for design, analysis, component tests, full-scale static testing and production modifi
42 Baroque: It does make you wonder at which stage or in which year Boeing marketing actually asked engineering if they could build what they were buzzing around
43 EPA001: Keesjes' theory sound plausible to me. And indeed it makes one wonder how overly(?) optimistic the marketing & sales department was compared to what
44 Slz396: That last thing is urgently needed, although customers will not like the other things they are currently developing (which as you say, they should ha
45 StickShaker: Not only are they multi-decade but also very complex entities and their true value is not well expressed by such simple metrics as break-even - why i
46 Baroque: Even if a 787 is at spec on EIS (seems not so likely) how would three (or 4) years of waiting compare financially with actually having an A332 over t
47 Dynamicsguy: Given the continued assertion from Boeing about their tight but apparently achievable flight test plan, a shift of that much in the EIS is hardly mod
48 Slz396: But the thing is they aren't really saying it is achievable anymore, but rather they say they are: From the above list of things being looked at righ
49 Stitch: If you take the Piano-X numbers that Leeham.net generated, if an A330-200 and an "at-spec" 787-8 both flew 23t of payload 6000nm, the 787-8 would bur
50 RedChili: And meanwhile, sources have informed Mr. Ostrower that Z18 will indeed specify first flight in late November or early December 2009, and entry into se
51 EPA001: But it could also be 10 months of flight testing which is only 1 month longer then the original 9-month ambitious schedule. I would plan for an EIS i
52 Slz396: Sources familiar with the planning indicate that 787's first flight is likely to be scheduled for late November/early December, with first delivery to
53 Keesje: It better does. $ 15 Billion is a lot of money I think Boeing should send Mr Udvar Hazy a box of Chateau La Mondotte Saint-Emilion 1996 for convincin
54 Astuteman: 34 tonnes for the A332 (233t) 38 tonnes for the A332 IGW (238t) The 233t A330 would carry about 81 tonnes of fuel for that trip, if the R/P chart is
55 Swallow: A380 technologies that will be applied to the 350 include: 2H2E (two hydraulic and two electric) architecture which has the dual 345bar (5,000lb/in2)
56 Keesje: The probability of finding a factual Boeing 787 payload range chart on internet in 2009 has a low probability IMO. Though many would like to have it
58 Stitch: I've never actually seen one from Boeing. Widebodyphotog did one with the 787-8 (216t TOW) lifting ~35t some 7250nm and the 787-9 (231t TOW) lifting
59 Astuteman: I would guess this latter could have been synthesized from the "220 pax for 8 500Nm" advertising that Boeing used to display a few years back. A long
60 Baroque: Then there is the years of having a plane vs not as per the problems (it appears) of Jetstar. What, did you have to get another fag packet! Oh dear n
61 Stitch: The September 2007 ACAP (last one I have seen) had an MTOW of 219.5t and an OEW of 114.5t. The original OEW was projected to be 109t. Airbus claims t
62 EPA001: There is nothing unfair about the competition Airbus is to Boeing. They know damn well the costs. Otherwise they could not be making money out of eve
63 Acheron: How about the Lockheed bribery of several nations?. I bet you think that was fair. Anyway, this has been debated over and over and over again and wha
64 AirNz: Despise is rather a strong word, isn't it? Other than that, could you please explain the rest of the sentence........between car factories and your o
65 Astuteman: For me, it's fair because you're so wrong. Unless I'm mistaken. They are, and yet the A350 is fine so far..... That helps. Mind you, if my extrapolat
66 EPA001: I guess we do. Now we only have to wait until they emerge (sigh).
67 PW100: The more important comparison would be continuing operating your "inefficient" 767 for three or four more years and then replacing them with fuel sip
68 Olle: Sorry; The Volvo is 100% owned by Ford If you not owns a truck of course.. Then it is Swedish owned! Opel has been owned by GM since before WWII! BR
69 Gisors: Such rude bashing of Boeing outsourcing model souldn't be allowed here. And they say in Sweden that quality has gone down the drains since then. SAAB
70 Dynamicsguy: All of that is true. However with all past iterations of the schedule I don't think the time for the flight test portion has varied more than a coupl
71 Blueman87: they better start flying its going to make a long trip to make the B787 profitable.[Edited 2009-08-25 19:22:37]
72 Dynamicsguy: Z18 is that schedule. It is the production and delivery schedule and it goes out quite a long way in the future - well beyond EIS. The news which has
73 ArabAirX: http://www.king5.com/business/storie...g-south-carolina-SW.11728c929.html King5 reporting potential Boeing app to build at its newly bought SC facilit
74 Baroque: Which is pretty much the case for the whole QF outfit as QF continues to fly 767s although it has shifted some, for example QF41/42 is now flown with
75 DocLightning: I will point out that 12 months ago (over 12 months ago) I predicted 1Q 2010. And everyone thought I was crazy. I'm just sayin'...
76 Manfredj: I'm not worried about break even. To over simplify my view, there are good investments and bad ones. Sure the 747 looked all but a terrible investmen
77 Pilot21: Boeing just released some more information on the 787. Basic details are: Sees 1st Flight before end of 2009. Sees 1st Deliveries in 4th Qrt 2010 Expe
78 Azhobo: Also here that the flight test birds are not going commercial....HOBO
79 Racko: Production rate for late 2013 is 10 per month according to the press release on boeing.com. Conference call is at 16:00 UTC.
80 RedChili: No, it's 10 per month in late 2013. http://boeing.mediaroom.com/index.php?s=43&item=812
81 BuyantUkhaa: Now on BBC too: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8224799.stm
82 Baroque: How many months in a Boeing year? If they moved to a lunar calendar.......
83 N14AZ: From that link posted by RedChili: Sorry, I am a little bit slow. Is this just a bean-counting issue about where to book the costs are does this mean
84 Sxf24: quote=N14AZ,reply=83]Sorry, I am a little bit slow. Is this just a bean-counting issue about where to book the costs are does this mean they will not
85 WestWing: Maybe Boeing will target the date the first flight as Dec. 17th 2009 - being the Wright flyer anniversary. I believe Dec. 17th 1968 was the target for
86 Stitch: I'm sure Boeing could sell them, even if it was a token price like $1. I think Boeing might have decided to keep them in house so they have frames th
87 United787: I hoped they have relearned their own past strategy (underpromise and overdeliver). If so, they are hoping for a flight in the first part of the four
88 Scbriml: Since Boeing has now answered this question, please continue any further discussion in this new thread: New 787 Schedule Released (by Brons2 Aug 27 20