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Mokulele Shutting Down Rumors Being Refuted.  
User currently offlineHA_DC9 From United States of America, joined Jul 1999, 652 posts, RR: 1
Posted (4 years 7 months 3 weeks 4 days 13 hours ago) and read 6593 times:

Interesting article in the Star Bulleting today:

http://www.starbulletin.com/business...lyst_report_that_it_may_close.html

To me a closure would make sense if they are buring through that much cash. I wonder what their load factors are. If they can't fill an E170, how can they fill an E190? How would the economics of an Embraer 145 compare with go!'s CRJ-200s on Hawaii inter-island flying?

I guess we will have to watch what Republic does.

34 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineYeogeo From United States of America, joined Jul 2009, 882 posts, RR: 14
Reply 1, posted (4 years 7 months 3 weeks 4 days 12 hours ago) and read 6462 times:



Quoting HA_DC9 (Thread starter):
Interesting article in the Star Bulletin today:
http://www.starbulletin.com/business....html

Nice catch, HA_DC9!

(quote of Mr. McAdoo, the analyst from above link):
"We expect Mokulele to close," he said. "That would return intra-Hawaii flying to a profitable duopoly of Hawaiian and Mesa's go! This outcome seems likely. We should hear within 90 days."

But after moving headquarters and maintenance facilities and upping one's investment by 7.5 million only weeks before, seems odd to shutter the operation now.

Apparently Mokulele is making inroads on the competition, however:

http://www.bizjournals.com/pacific/stories/2009/08/03/daily18.html

"The numbers suggest that the growth of new inter-island competitor Mokulele Airlines is coming at the expense of go!"

Perhaps Republic is counting on a profitable duopoly of Hawaiian and Mokulele instead!

yeo



Yokoso! to my world
User currently offlineT prop From United States of America, joined Apr 2001, 1017 posts, RR: 1
Reply 2, posted (4 years 7 months 3 weeks 4 days 12 hours ago) and read 6460 times:

They almost shut down several months ago and now this. They don't look very stable right now and you would think people may take this into account and go with their competition. Also, what's with that $299 unlimited flying for one month deal they have? That's crazy, it makes me think they're desperate for cash.

On the E145's anyone know if these airplanes can handle the beating they will get out here? We see CRJ's on the Elliot street pad getting engine changes quite often right out there in the open. I have my suspicions as to weather these are scheduled or not. The E170's seem to be reliable though.


User currently offlineDurangoMac From United States of America, joined Dec 2006, 660 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (4 years 7 months 3 weeks 4 days 10 hours ago) and read 6338 times:



Quoting HA_DC9 (Thread starter):
How would the economics of an Embraer 145 compare with go!'s CRJ-200s on Hawaii inter-island flying?

My understanding is that the E145's while more comfortable for the passenger cost more to operate than the CRJ-200.

I personally suspect that either Mokulele or go! is going to have to shutter for the Hawaii market to stabilize and support the remaining air carriers.


User currently offlineNASBWI From Bahamas, joined Feb 2005, 1286 posts, RR: 0
Reply 4, posted (4 years 7 months 3 weeks 4 days 10 hours ago) and read 6281 times:



Quoting T prop (Reply 2):
Also, what's with that $299 unlimited flying for one month deal they have? That's crazy, it makes me think they're desperate for cash.

They could be desperate for cash, or they could be copy-catting B6 in trying to generate more revenue during a time of the year where it's really tough to make a buck  wink .



Fierce, Fabulous, and Flawless ;)
User currently offlineWedgetail737 From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 5831 posts, RR: 5
Reply 5, posted (4 years 7 months 3 weeks 4 days 10 hours ago) and read 6251 times:
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Well, if Mokulele does cease operations, who would AS go to for code-sharing? I hope they go to Island Air or back to HA. I have a feeling that HA would be out because they are competing with them out of SEA and PDX.

User currently offlineViasa From Switzerland, joined Jun 2005, 1853 posts, RR: 6
Reply 6, posted (4 years 7 months 3 weeks 4 days 9 hours ago) and read 6150 times:

I have booked a flight with Pacific Wings. After they stopped the route, I booked Mokulele for the same routing... and now????

I still hope that they not suspend it's operation.


User currently offlineLAXintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 24326 posts, RR: 47
Reply 7, posted (4 years 7 months 3 weeks 4 days 8 hours ago) and read 6073 times:

Well with Republic Holdings recent deals at YX and F9 could be it has better uses for the E170s then running what is admittedly a loss making venture in Hawaii.


From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
User currently onlineBMI727 From United States of America, joined Feb 2009, 15493 posts, RR: 26
Reply 8, posted (4 years 7 months 3 weeks 4 days 8 hours ago) and read 5992 times:



Quoting HA_DC9 (Thread starter):
I wonder what their load factors are. If they can't fill an E170, how can they fill an E190?

I've said before that I think that they made a mistake by using the 170 instead of the 190. Of course, if they can't fill it, there is no point.

Quoting DurangoMac (Reply 3):
My understanding is that the E145's while more comfortable for the passenger cost more to operate than the CRJ-200

This might be right, though the difference in cost can't be that much, otherwise nobody would fly the ERJs.

Quoting DurangoMac (Reply 3):
I personally suspect that either Mokulele or go! is going to have to shutter for the Hawaii market to stabilize and support the remaining air carriers.

This I agree with, it is mostly a matter of how much Mesa and Republic are willing to spend to win a war of attrition.

And here is my outside wild idea. Maybe Republic should send some of those Lynx Q400s to the islands to fly for Mokulele. Not likely for a number of reasons, but it seems like a good idea to me.  stirthepot 



Why do Aerospace Engineering students have to turn things in on time?
User currently offlineWedgetail737 From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 5831 posts, RR: 5
Reply 9, posted (4 years 7 months 3 weeks 4 days 8 hours ago) and read 5953 times:
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I'll have to keep a close eye on the whole Mokulele thing. If they happen to quit service, I guess I'll have to make a call to AS.

User currently offlinePenguinflies From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 984 posts, RR: 0
Reply 10, posted (4 years 7 months 3 weeks 4 days 6 hours ago) and read 5846 times:

Republic--like Mesa-- has a few too many 50 seat aircraft.

I am shocked that the 170 operation was losing $6 million a quarter. While the analyst probably is including the startup costs for opening new stations and some other expenses. I believe that this current quarter will give an accurate indication of how Mokulele faired in summer. If you look at Mesa's 10Q, their CRJs lost about $2.5 million in the spring quarter. Mokulele should be increasing load factor and starting to realize benefits of interline and codeshare agreements. They just need to continue expanding codeshares and GDS distribution.

I can see Republic moving unused -145s to Hawaii and transferring out the 170s for profitable flying on the Mainland. If they can even get 7 -145s in exchange for the 3 170s, you are looking at in increase in frequency while using idled assets. They could also increase their spare coverage. But this time, I would think they will need ferry tanks installed to get them to Hawai'i


User currently offlineSrbmod From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 11, posted (4 years 7 months 3 weeks 4 days 6 hours ago) and read 5845 times:

I don't think they'll shut down, more than likely Republic will buyout the rest of the airline (probably at a bargain basement price) and keep on flying under the name. With the addition of Frontier, Lynx, and Midwest to the Republic stable, Mokulele may be a piece in the overall puzzle for Republic's operations outside of their DL Connection, United Express, US Airways Express, American Connection, and Continental Express contracts. I would not be surprised if Republic gets part of the F9 A319 fleet ETOPS certified and starts service to Hawaii. They could use Mokulele's operations to funnel passengers to/from HNL.

User currently offlineMariner From New Zealand, joined Nov 2001, 24644 posts, RR: 86
Reply 12, posted (4 years 7 months 3 weeks 4 days 6 hours ago) and read 5801 times:
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Quoting LAXintl (Reply 7):
Well with Republic Holdings recent deals at YX and F9 could be it has better uses for the E170s then running what is admittedly a loss making venture in Hawaii.

I have a lot of respect for Mr. MacAdoo, but I think that's one thing he may have quite wrong. I'm not sure they want any more E170's back on the mainland.

They have a number of E190's coming, primarily for MKE, but I'd be pretty sure that some will fly out of DEN.

Could they place the E170's? I doubt Mr. Menke would want them at DEN and the whole push at MKE is to get larger aircraft flying the longer range routes.

I'm pretty sure Mr. Bedord won't let Mokulele be too much of a drain on the bank balance, but I don't know if closing it down is the answer.

mariner



aeternum nauta
User currently offlineT prop From United States of America, joined Apr 2001, 1017 posts, RR: 1
Reply 13, posted (4 years 7 months 3 weeks 4 days 6 hours ago) and read 5680 times:



Quoting Penguinflies (Reply 10):
I am shocked that the 170 operation was losing $6 million a quarter

Their load factor is about 40-50%, can they make any money with the cheap fares they have? And they want to bring in 190's, 145's or both?  Confused


User currently offlineDeltaL1011man From United States of America, joined Sep 2005, 9082 posts, RR: 12
Reply 14, posted (4 years 7 months 3 weeks 4 days 6 hours ago) and read 5680 times:



Quoting BMI727 (Reply 8):
I've said before that I think that they made a mistake by using the 170 instead of the 190. Of course, if they can't fill it, there is no point.

well Number one. It would have to be RW that does the flights. S5 and RP cant(and IIRC S5 is doing the flights). Well they can but RW will be losing DL and UA contracts. 2. They has E70s laying around. Not so with the E90. 3. Like you said, if they cant fill a E70 why waste an E90?(that they could use at F9 or YX)



yep.
User currently offlineJolau1701 From United States of America, joined Feb 2009, 221 posts, RR: 0
Reply 15, posted (4 years 7 months 3 weeks 4 days 5 hours ago) and read 5516 times:

What about Island Air and thier Dash8's?

And what's going to happen to Mokukeke's cargo or tour flights?

[Edited 2009-08-29 13:25:55]

User currently offlineHa763 From United States of America, joined Jan 2003, 3597 posts, RR: 6
Reply 16, posted (4 years 7 months 3 weeks 4 days ago) and read 4628 times:
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What they really need to do is expand their flight schedule to at least match the number of flights on go!'s schedule. The biggest complaint I keep hearing from people is the lack of flights at the times they want or need to travel. For example, Mokulele's schedule to LIH and ITO have huge holes between flights, sometimes 4+ hours.

In order to do this, they need to fly more than 2 aircraft a day. If they could add just 2, even 1 more aircraft, they could add a couple of flights a day to LIH, ITO, and KOA to reduce the wait time between flights to those destinations. This also could attract passengers away from go!.

Whether it be more E170s or bringing in E190s, or ERJ-45s, they need a larger schedule to attract more pax.

Quoting Wedgetail737 (Reply 5):
Well, if Mokulele does cease operations, who would AS go to for code-sharing? I hope they go to Island Air or back to HA. I have a feeling that HA would be out because they are competing with them out of SEA and PDX.

Nothing is stopping AS from going back to HA for an interisland codeshare. DL/NW, AA, UA, US all compete with HA on mainland routes but still codeshare on interisland routes.


User currently offlineEnilria From Canada, joined Feb 2008, 6838 posts, RR: 14
Reply 17, posted (4 years 7 months 3 weeks 3 days 22 hours ago) and read 4236 times:



Quoting Yeogeo (Reply 1):
But after moving headquarters and maintenance facilities and upping one's investment by 7.5 million only weeks before, seems odd to shutter the operation now.

While it seems like that would be true, it is often possible to unwind recent deals. It is also true that often the option is to fold or double down so both options are in play until the hand is forced.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 7):
Well with Republic Holdings recent deals at YX and F9 could be it has better uses for the E170s then running what is admittedly a loss making venture in Hawaii.

Frankly, YX is a trainwreck. I'd be shocked if YX is any better than Molu. IF this is true, it should be the first sign that REP's strategy is not based upon any more sound reasoning than Independence Air and ExpressJet.

Everybody is so excited about getting A319s in to the MKE network, but they lost an awful lot of money with aircraft that big before.  Smile


User currently offlineMariner From New Zealand, joined Nov 2001, 24644 posts, RR: 86
Reply 18, posted (4 years 7 months 3 weeks 3 days 22 hours ago) and read 4222 times:
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Quoting Yeogeo (Reply 1):
But after moving headquarters and maintenance facilities and upping one's investment by 7.5 million only weeks before, seems odd to shutter the operation now.

And if it's true they've got the losses down to $6 million a quarter - $2 million a month - I'm not sure why Mr. MacAdoo is having the vapors.

mariner



aeternum nauta
User currently onlineBMI727 From United States of America, joined Feb 2009, 15493 posts, RR: 26
Reply 19, posted (4 years 7 months 3 weeks 3 days 22 hours ago) and read 4206 times:



Quoting Enilria (Reply 17):
Frankly, YX is a trainwreck.

They used to be, but I think that things have been getting better since the Republic deal. (for the flying, not buyout)

Really, YX has had a bit of an issue in the last few years. On the one hand, they were afraid that the way they were doing things would be economic suicide, but in my opinion they got themselves into a lot of trouble by trying to be something they weren't. I think that they might finally be in a position to get the balance right, and the strength of Republic can only help.



Why do Aerospace Engineering students have to turn things in on time?
User currently offlineExpressjet_erj From United States of America, joined Oct 2001, 832 posts, RR: 4
Reply 20, posted (4 years 7 months 3 weeks 3 days 22 hours ago) and read 4053 times:



Quoting DeltaL1011man (Reply 14):
well Number one. It would have to be RW that does the flights. S5 and RP cant(and IIRC S5 is doing the flights). Well they can but RW will be losing DL and UA contracts. 2. They has E70s laying around. Not so with the E90. 3. Like you said, if they cant fill a E70 why waste an E90?(that they could use at F9 or YX)

DL and UA contracts going away??? Do you have a source for that? We have no E170s sitting idle right now.

UA 145s are going away in Dec (rumored to have an extension until Jun 2010). Beyond that the only loss of airplanes is the remaining CRJs (7)

Quoting DurangoMac (Reply 3):
My understanding is that the E145's while more comfortable for the passenger cost more to operate than the CRJ-200.

The 145 is lighter than the CRJ, climbs faster. I dont know how it is cheaper unless that is MX related. However the CRJs are older and seem to be broke more often than not... part of the reason the CRJs are on the way out.



ETOPS...Engines Turn Or People Swim
User currently offlineCruiseshipcrew From United States of America, joined Aug 2008, 201 posts, RR: 1
Reply 21, posted (4 years 7 months 3 weeks 3 days 22 hours ago) and read 4032 times:

I flew these guys from Maui OGG to Honolulu last month and it was a horrible experience. I posted a TR about it. I wouldn't be sad to see these guys go.


facebook sn jetboy787
User currently offlinePilotpip From United States of America, joined Sep 2003, 3139 posts, RR: 11
Reply 22, posted (4 years 7 months 3 weeks 3 days 21 hours ago) and read 4005 times:

The primary reason for the hemorrhaging of money was the lack of ticketing systems and codeshares. You can now buy tickets on the Mokulele site as well as priceline in addition to the codeshare and ticketing deals. The passenger loads are up quite a bit, but when they were averaging about 5 per flight you have nowhere to go but up.

I'd also love to know when we're losing the flying with UA and DL. Unless you're talking about loosing them due to scope violations, and that's not with the carrier, that's with the pilot unions. While a few 145s are going away, those have been made up for with the addition of Midwest flying.

The whole point of HNL was never to make money. It was to keep planes flying and more importantly take away some market share from Mesa's only profitable flying.

Last but not least, if RAH was shutting the door in HNL I'd have a WARN notice that I was about to be furloughed again because they'd have to park those planes and the guys coming back from there would displace me due to being senior.

[Edited 2009-08-29 21:07:40]


DMI
User currently offlineSideflare75 From United States of America, joined May 2005, 613 posts, RR: 1
Reply 23, posted (4 years 7 months 3 weeks 3 days 21 hours ago) and read 3906 times:



Quoting Enilria (Reply 17):
Frankly, YX is a trainwreck.

What makes YX such a trainwreck in your eyes??? Just curious.

Mr Bedford doesn't seem to think that.


User currently offlineRidgid727 From United States of America, joined Jul 2008, 1088 posts, RR: 0
Reply 24, posted (4 years 7 months 3 weeks 3 days 21 hours ago) and read 3899 times:

Who started the current sale at $24.99?

Not sure you could sustain E170's flying for fares that low very long.

I have flown Mokulele several time this last year. First flight I took with them had like 8 passengers on board. They were apparantly operating on a real shoe string budget, as they had no one at the gate...even though the flight was delayed like 2 hours. They made no announcements, and the ticket counter personel seemed un interested. At the ticket counter they were telling everyone when the plane pulled up to the gate, we would know our flight was about ready to depart. I have found the go! staff to be far more attentive, at least treating you as a guest, rather than an imposition.


25 MSPNWA : To me Mokulele seems to be caught with one foot in the door wondering what to do next. Last week I had to hurriedly book an HNL-OGG flight, and their
26 Isitsafenow : I'll be going inter-island last week of October. I'll stick to Hawaiian Air, thankyouverymuch. safe
27 Wedgetail737 : That's probably the safest thing.
28 BMI727 : He's not saying that the contracts are going away, just that they would if either Shuttle America or Chautauqua had the 190s on their certificates as
29 Enilria : We know how much money they were losing earlier this year from Form41. Now they have WN and a much bigger FL to compete with. Additional capacity nev
30 Pilotpip : The reasons both of you stated were the exact reason that RAH took a controlling interest in Mokulele. Their CEO had great ideas but no idea how to i
31 Post contains links T prop : Bob McAdoo's Bio: http://pulse.alacra.com/analyst-comments/Bob_McAdoo-A7631 So he worked for Virgin Express and Mesa with J.O? Hmmm...
32 Mariner : Here's a fun quote from that link about Southwest's bid for Frontier: "We believe Southwest will be the successful bidder," airline analyst Bob McAdo
33 Dsuairptman : Interesting indeed. That might explain why McAdoo is always there for MAGs quaterly report calls.
34 Pilotpip : And why he can't be taken seriously. He has a financial interest in one of the companies in that market. Of course he's going to talk down the compet
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