To me a closure would make sense if they are buring through that much cash. I wonder what their load factors are. If they can't fill an E170, how can they fill an E190? How would the economics of an Embraer 145 compare with go!'s CRJ-200s on Hawaii inter-island flying?
(quote of Mr. McAdoo, the analyst from above link):
"We expect Mokulele to close," he said. "That would return intra-Hawaii flying to a profitable duopoly of Hawaiian and Mesa's go! This outcome seems likely. We should hear within 90 days."
But after moving headquarters and maintenance facilities and upping one's investment by 7.5 million only weeks before, seems odd to shutter the operation now.
Apparently Mokulele is making inroads on the competition, however:
T prop From United States of America, joined Apr 2001, 1030 posts, RR: 1
Reply 2, posted (5 years 5 months 5 days 21 hours ago) and read 6695 times:
They almost shut down several months ago and now this. They don't look very stable right now and you would think people may take this into account and go with their competition. Also, what's with that $299 unlimited flying for one month deal they have? That's crazy, it makes me think they're desperate for cash.
On the E145's anyone know if these airplanes can handle the beating they will get out here? We see CRJ's on the Elliot street pad getting engine changes quite often right out there in the open. I have my suspicions as to weather these are scheduled or not. The E170's seem to be reliable though.
Wedgetail737 From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 5963 posts, RR: 6
Reply 5, posted (5 years 5 months 5 days 19 hours ago) and read 6486 times:
Well, if Mokulele does cease operations, who would AS go to for code-sharing? I hope they go to Island Air or back to HA. I have a feeling that HA would be out because they are competing with them out of SEA and PDX.
Penguinflies From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 990 posts, RR: 0
Reply 10, posted (5 years 5 months 5 days 16 hours ago) and read 6081 times:
Republic--like Mesa-- has a few too many 50 seat aircraft.
I am shocked that the 170 operation was losing $6 million a quarter. While the analyst probably is including the startup costs for opening new stations and some other expenses. I believe that this current quarter will give an accurate indication of how Mokulele faired in summer. If you look at Mesa's 10Q, their CRJs lost about $2.5 million in the spring quarter. Mokulele should be increasing load factor and starting to realize benefits of interline and codeshare agreements. They just need to continue expanding codeshares and GDS distribution.
I can see Republic moving unused -145s to Hawaii and transferring out the 170s for profitable flying on the Mainland. If they can even get 7 -145s in exchange for the 3 170s, you are looking at in increase in frequency while using idled assets. They could also increase their spare coverage. But this time, I would think they will need ferry tanks installed to get them to Hawai'i
Srbmod From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 11, posted (5 years 5 months 5 days 16 hours ago) and read 6080 times:
I don't think they'll shut down, more than likely Republic will buyout the rest of the airline (probably at a bargain basement price) and keep on flying under the name. With the addition of Frontier, Lynx, and Midwest to the Republic stable, Mokulele may be a piece in the overall puzzle for Republic's operations outside of their DL Connection, United Express, US Airways Express, American Connection, and Continental Express contracts. I would not be surprised if Republic gets part of the F9 A319 fleet ETOPS certified and starts service to Hawaii. They could use Mokulele's operations to funnel passengers to/from HNL.
DeltaL1011man From United States of America, joined Sep 2005, 9772 posts, RR: 15
Reply 14, posted (5 years 5 months 5 days 15 hours ago) and read 5915 times:
Quoting BMI727 (Reply 8): I've said before that I think that they made a mistake by using the 170 instead of the 190. Of course, if they can't fill it, there is no point.
well Number one. It would have to be RW that does the flights. S5 and RP cant(and IIRC S5 is doing the flights). Well they can but RW will be losing DL and UA contracts. 2. They has E70s laying around. Not so with the E90. 3. Like you said, if they cant fill a E70 why waste an E90?(that they could use at F9 or YX)
Ha763 From United States of America, joined Jan 2003, 3681 posts, RR: 5
Reply 16, posted (5 years 5 months 5 days 10 hours ago) and read 4863 times:
What they really need to do is expand their flight schedule to at least match the number of flights on go!'s schedule. The biggest complaint I keep hearing from people is the lack of flights at the times they want or need to travel. For example, Mokulele's schedule to LIH and ITO have huge holes between flights, sometimes 4+ hours.
In order to do this, they need to fly more than 2 aircraft a day. If they could add just 2, even 1 more aircraft, they could add a couple of flights a day to LIH, ITO, and KOA to reduce the wait time between flights to those destinations. This also could attract passengers away from go!.
Whether it be more E170s or bringing in E190s, or ERJ-45s, they need a larger schedule to attract more pax.
Quoting Wedgetail737 (Reply 5): Well, if Mokulele does cease operations, who would AS go to for code-sharing? I hope they go to Island Air or back to HA. I have a feeling that HA would be out because they are competing with them out of SEA and PDX.
Nothing is stopping AS from going back to HA for an interisland codeshare. DL/NW, AA, UA, US all compete with HA on mainland routes but still codeshare on interisland routes.
Enilria From Canada, joined Feb 2008, 7913 posts, RR: 15
Reply 17, posted (5 years 5 months 5 days 8 hours ago) and read 4471 times:
Quoting Yeogeo (Reply 1): But after moving headquarters and maintenance facilities and upping one's investment by 7.5 million only weeks before, seems odd to shutter the operation now.
While it seems like that would be true, it is often possible to unwind recent deals. It is also true that often the option is to fold or double down so both options are in play until the hand is forced.
Quoting LAXintl (Reply 7): Well with Republic Holdings recent deals at YX and F9 could be it has better uses for the E170s then running what is admittedly a loss making venture in Hawaii.
Frankly, YX is a trainwreck. I'd be shocked if YX is any better than Molu. IF this is true, it should be the first sign that REP's strategy is not based upon any more sound reasoning than Independence Air and ExpressJet.
Everybody is so excited about getting A319s in to the MKE network, but they lost an awful lot of money with aircraft that big before.
They used to be, but I think that things have been getting better since the Republic deal. (for the flying, not buyout)
Really, YX has had a bit of an issue in the last few years. On the one hand, they were afraid that the way they were doing things would be economic suicide, but in my opinion they got themselves into a lot of trouble by trying to be something they weren't. I think that they might finally be in a position to get the balance right, and the strength of Republic can only help.
Why do Aerospace Engineering students have to turn things in on time?
Expressjet_erj From United States of America, joined Oct 2001, 838 posts, RR: 4
Reply 20, posted (5 years 5 months 5 days 7 hours ago) and read 4288 times:
Quoting DeltaL1011man (Reply 14): well Number one. It would have to be RW that does the flights. S5 and RP cant(and IIRC S5 is doing the flights). Well they can but RW will be losing DL and UA contracts. 2. They has E70s laying around. Not so with the E90. 3. Like you said, if they cant fill a E70 why waste an E90?(that they could use at F9 or YX)
DL and UA contracts going away??? Do you have a source for that? We have no E170s sitting idle right now.
UA 145s are going away in Dec (rumored to have an extension until Jun 2010). Beyond that the only loss of airplanes is the remaining CRJs (7)
Quoting DurangoMac (Reply 3): My understanding is that the E145's while more comfortable for the passenger cost more to operate than the CRJ-200.
The 145 is lighter than the CRJ, climbs faster. I dont know how it is cheaper unless that is MX related. However the CRJs are older and seem to be broke more often than not... part of the reason the CRJs are on the way out.
Pilotpip From United States of America, joined Sep 2003, 3152 posts, RR: 10
Reply 22, posted (5 years 5 months 5 days 7 hours ago) and read 4240 times:
The primary reason for the hemorrhaging of money was the lack of ticketing systems and codeshares. You can now buy tickets on the Mokulele site as well as priceline in addition to the codeshare and ticketing deals. The passenger loads are up quite a bit, but when they were averaging about 5 per flight you have nowhere to go but up.
I'd also love to know when we're losing the flying with UA and DL. Unless you're talking about loosing them due to scope violations, and that's not with the carrier, that's with the pilot unions. While a few 145s are going away, those have been made up for with the addition of Midwest flying.
The whole point of HNL was never to make money. It was to keep planes flying and more importantly take away some market share from Mesa's only profitable flying.
Last but not least, if RAH was shutting the door in HNL I'd have a WARN notice that I was about to be furloughed again because they'd have to park those planes and the guys coming back from there would displace me due to being senior.
Ridgid727 From United States of America, joined Jul 2008, 1258 posts, RR: 0
Reply 24, posted (5 years 5 months 5 days 6 hours ago) and read 4134 times:
Who started the current sale at $24.99?
Not sure you could sustain E170's flying for fares that low very long.
I have flown Mokulele several time this last year. First flight I took with them had like 8 passengers on board. They were apparantly operating on a real shoe string budget, as they had no one at the gate...even though the flight was delayed like 2 hours. They made no announcements, and the ticket counter personel seemed un interested. At the ticket counter they were telling everyone when the plane pulled up to the gate, we would know our flight was about ready to depart. I have found the go! staff to be far more attentive, at least treating you as a guest, rather than an imposition.
: To me Mokulele seems to be caught with one foot in the door wondering what to do next. Last week I had to hurriedly book an HNL-OGG flight, and their
: I'll be going inter-island last week of October. I'll stick to Hawaiian Air, thankyouverymuch. safe