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US-Japan Open Skies: Implications  
User currently offlineCentrair From Japan, joined Jan 2005, 3598 posts, RR: 20
Posted (5 years 14 hours ago) and read 3993 times:

So I have been reading around the news sites about the US and Japan entering talks to possibly push for an "open skies" agreement.

UPDATE:US Aims For 'Open Skies' Deal With Japan By End Of '09

other articles related to US-Japan Open Skies

What would a Japan-US Open Skies agreement mean for NRT?
How about HND?
What would it mean for other Japanese cities (KIX, NGO, FUK, CTS)?
What would it mean for Alliances?
(NH is the main driver for this as it would allow for anti-trust in Star alliance movement)
Would it benefit all the Airlines involved?
Who would benefit the most? JL, NH, UA, DL, AA, CO? ...Could this make it easier for US to enter Japan (A/C aside)?
Would it benefit the consumer?
Could this have an adverse affect on Asian Carries with 5th freedoms to the US?
How about DL and UA's 5th freedom rights?

This is big news and has lots of implications.


Yes...I am not a KIX fan. Let's Japanese Aviation!
18 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently offlineDeltAirlines From United States of America, joined May 1999, 8902 posts, RR: 12
Reply 1, posted (5 years 14 hours ago) and read 3983 times:

It could have big implications on any potential DL/JL alliance (if it happens) - Open Skies would quite possibly lead to a Joint Venture and would strengthen the NRT hub for each airline by quite a bit.

User currently onlineHeeseokKoo From South Korea, joined Jan 2005, 639 posts, RR: 1
Reply 2, posted (5 years 14 hours ago) and read 3931 times:

So it seems this talk again didn't bring satisfactory results. According to one article, US side will get "only" 4 HND slots out of 40 daily. I assume it will be obviously night slots (10pm-7am). HND will have 30000 night slots and 30000 day slots; divide by 2 (arr and dep), divide by 365, becomes 41 dailies at night and 41 in the day. (correct?)

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20090910-718477.html

Usual opensky agreements that Japanese government granted does not involve HND and NRT. But it seems US wants something more. Interesting to watch what's going on.


User currently offlineJfk777 From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 8371 posts, RR: 7
Reply 3, posted (5 years 3 hours ago) and read 3653 times:
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Quoting Centrair (Thread starter):
What would it mean for other Japanese cities (KIX, NGO, FUK, CTS)?

United flies to Osaka from SFO and had from ORD. AA has served Nagoya and Osaka. Delta flew to Nagoya from PDX when that hub existed. The regional airports are very expensive to operate from and get cut recessions, both Japan's and the USA's.

Quoting Centrair (Thread starter):
What would a Japan-US Open Skies agreement mean for NRT?

Open Skies to any Tokyo airport could be tricky in practice because of slots. Many airlines wanting service to NRT have waited years for access, from all counries not just the USA.


User currently offlineCubsrule From United States of America, joined May 2004, 22993 posts, RR: 20
Reply 4, posted (5 years 3 hours ago) and read 3653 times:



Quoting DeltAirlines (Reply 1):
Open Skies would quite possibly lead to a Joint Venture and would strengthen the NRT hub for each airline by quite a bit.

Obama isn't real keen on things like joint ventures; I wouldn't count on it happening (though I certainly wouldn't count it out, either).

Quoting HeeseokKoo (Reply 2):
According to one article, US side will get "only" 4 HND slots out of 40 daily.

My sense - tell me if I'm wrong - is that there isn't a whole lot of buying and selling of HND slots now. I wonder, though, whether that would change. Certainly, in Britain, every US legacy proved willing to either find a partner or pay what it took to get in to LHR.



I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
User currently offlineNaritaflyer From Japan, joined Apr 2006, 549 posts, RR: 1
Reply 5, posted (5 years 2 hours ago) and read 3551 times:

Open skies does not mean preferential treatment but equal treatment. As a consequence, it has no bearing on NRT or HND. If there are no slots available at HND then there are no slots whether there is open skies or not. The US government cannot mandate that slots be taken away from other airlines and preferentially given to its own airlines.

Open skies means that any U.S. airline should be able to fly to any point in Japan from anywhere in the U.S. and not have to file its fares with authorities and not be capacity-restricted. This can be done even at restricted airports such as HND when slots are obtained using the normal procedures.

I don't know why people automatically equate slot restrictions with protectionism.


User currently offlineCubsrule From United States of America, joined May 2004, 22993 posts, RR: 20
Reply 6, posted (5 years 1 hour ago) and read 3489 times:



Quoting Naritaflyer (Reply 5):
As a consequence, it has no bearing on NRT or HND. If there are no slots available at HND then there are no slots whether there is open skies or not.

Aren't there always slots available for the right price?



I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
User currently offlineTravelExec From Spain, joined Dec 2007, 449 posts, RR: 0
Reply 7, posted (5 years ago) and read 3430 times:



Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 6):

Aren't there always slots available for the right price?

At some airports around the world, yes. In Japan (or at least in Haneda) the slots are controlled and are allocated according particular strategies and for particular routings. You cannot apply for a slot to fly HND KIX and then use it for HND LAX for example.

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 4):
Obama isn't real keen on things like joint ventures; I wouldn't count on it happening (though I certainly wouldn't count it out, either).

If it is lawful, even the messiah cannot stop it from happening... Corporations are free to act as they please (within the law). I would assume that something similar to the AF/KLM or Royal Duthc/Shell shareholding arrangements would be possible.


User currently offlineCubsrule From United States of America, joined May 2004, 22993 posts, RR: 20
Reply 8, posted (4 years 12 months 4 days 23 hours ago) and read 3359 times:



Quoting TravelExec (Reply 7):
In Japan (or at least in Haneda) the slots are controlled and are allocated according particular strategies and for particular routings.

If I were the US, I'd angle for an open market for slots rather than access to a certain number. US carriers probably will come out ahead (an added bonus is that DoT doesn't have to decide who gets them).

Quoting TravelExec (Reply 7):
If it is lawful, even the messiah cannot stop it from happening...

Trouble is that ATI isn't lawful.



I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
User currently offlineJfk777 From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 8371 posts, RR: 7
Reply 9, posted (4 years 12 months 4 days 21 hours ago) and read 3273 times:
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United and Delta are unlikely to split their operations between two Tokyo airports. AA probably would stay at NRT unless several things happen, more service to Asia nonstop by them and JAL goes to Skyteam.

IF AA were to fly to HKG from ORD nonstop then more passengers could go to SIN, TPE and BKK through Cathay in HKG. AA could distribute connections to Japanese domestic flights better at HND and if it lost JAL's onward connections at NRT.

Next April AA with fly from ORD to PEK to supplment its ORD to PVG service with its NRT flights. IF AA gets to HKG then AA's Asia future looks much better.


User currently offlineUs330 From United States of America, joined Aug 2000, 3871 posts, RR: 13
Reply 10, posted (4 years 12 months 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 3177 times:

Probably not much as long as NRT remains slot restricted.

Quoting DeltAirlines (Reply 1):
It could have big implications on any potential DL/JL alliance (if it happens) - Open Skies would quite possibly lead to a Joint Venture and would strengthen the NRT hub for each airline by quite a bit.

Regulatory authorities from the U.S. wouldn't allow it. If they still won't allow AA/BA ATI, in spite of granting it to two other alliances, then there is absolutely no way they would allow DL/JL anything more than a codeshare from Japan to other points in Australasia.


User currently offlineWorldTraveler From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 11, posted (4 years 12 months 4 days 16 hours ago) and read 3087 times:



Quoting Naritaflyer (Reply 5):
Open skies does not mean preferential treatment but equal treatment. As a consequence, it has no bearing on NRT or HND. If there are no slots available at HND then there are no slots whether there is open skies or not. The US government cannot mandate that slots be taken away from other airlines and preferentially given to its own airlines.

If new slots are being distributed and a token are given to US carriers, it is not Open Skies.

Quoting Us330 (Reply 10):
If they still won't allow AA/BA ATI

The reason why AA/BA don't have ATI is because they have massive control of several key US-LHR markets and aren't willing at this point to provide concessions in the market; compound that with the fact that LHR is far more restrictive and costly in slot access than any other airport in the world and it should be very apparent why AA/BA don't have ATI.

No such condition exists in Japan where the playing field is far more evenly distributed... and would be even if DL and JL combined operations.


User currently offlineCubsrule From United States of America, joined May 2004, 22993 posts, RR: 20
Reply 12, posted (4 years 12 months 4 days 13 hours ago) and read 2968 times:



Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 11):
compound that with the fact that LHR is far more restrictive and costly in slot access than any other airport in the world

Is it more restrictive and costly than NRT?



I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
User currently offlinePellegrine From United States of America, joined Mar 2007, 2443 posts, RR: 8
Reply 13, posted (4 years 12 months 4 days 13 hours ago) and read 2944 times:



Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 11):
If new slots are being distributed and a token are given to US carriers, it is not Open Skies.

What do slots available have to do with open skies? Are the Japanese just supposed to ignore European and Asian demand for NRT/HND slots simply because the US wants its carriers to have x amount under the premise of open skies?



oh boy!!!
User currently offlineCarpethead From Japan, joined Aug 2004, 2954 posts, RR: 3
Reply 14, posted (4 years 12 months 4 days 13 hours ago) and read 2898 times:

In fact, outside of the Tokyo airports, US & Japan have a de-facto Open Skies. US carriers are more than free to serve NGO, KIX, or FUK because those airports don't even have slot-restrictions and more than likely those airports will more than welcome their service and hawk the Ministry of Transport to rubber stamp the approval. The big, big problem is generating traffic.

One effect of HND opening to international traffic is that, some of the international traffic will shift from NRT to HND; hence opening up of slots. Current plan is only short-haul international operations are scheduled for HND during the daylight hours. For example, if OZ or KE shift a significant portion of their flight schedule to HND, it will open up opportunities for longer-haul flights at NRT.


User currently offlineJfk777 From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 8371 posts, RR: 7
Reply 15, posted (4 years 12 months 4 days 4 hours ago) and read 2765 times:
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Quoting Carpethead (Reply 14):
One effect of HND opening to international traffic is that, some of the international traffic will shift from NRT to HND; hence opening up of slots. Current plan is only short-haul international operations are scheduled for HND during the daylight hours. For example, if OZ or KE shift a significant portion of their flight schedule to HND, it will open up opportunities for longer-haul flights at NRT.

Flights to Seoul from HND to Seoul's old Kimpo airport are similar to the Shuttle from LGA to DCA and BOS.

For all the NRT flights going to HND, before NRT Pan AM and NW operated their schedule at HND until Narira opened in 1979.


User currently offlineAirNz From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 16, posted (4 years 12 months 4 days 2 hours ago) and read 2696 times:



Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 11):
If new slots are being distributed and a token are given to US carriers, it is not Open Skies.

As you have repeatedly shown, you really have no idea whatever of the difference/relationship of what open skies and slot restrictions are, do you???

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 11):
the fact that LHR is far more restrictive and costly in slot access than any other airport in the world

And your point being what in relation to this thread? That's some fixation you have!!


User currently offlineMogandoCI From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 17, posted (4 years 12 months 4 days 1 hour ago) and read 2657 times:



Quoting Carpethead (Reply 14):
For example, if OZ or KE shift a significant portion of their flight schedule to HND, it will open up opportunities for longer-haul flights at NRT.

Other than a few OZ flights to NRT to connect onto ANA's international service, I think the bulk of Korea-Tokyo flights should go to HND, since it's O&D anyway.

Ditto for all major business hubs close to Tokyo, such as Beijing Shanghai Hong Kong Taipei, and maybe a couple of secondary mainland Chinese cities. At the same time, connecting traffic should be all routed through NRT because no one cares how close to the city you are if that's not your destination.

Short-trip business travel should be closer to city center, while 2-week leisure trips don't mind the extra 45 mins from NRT.

Now, if they would create a reliable single-seat ride on the Narita Express from NRT to HND in 1.5 hrs (including a stop in downtown Tokyo), that should ease some of the pain of connecting. Oh yea, and as an added bonus, offer customers to recheck their bags for their domestic flight directly at NRT, and be delivered at the arrival port instead of having them lug 70lbs of stuff across Tokyo bay.


User currently offlineCentrair From Japan, joined Jan 2005, 3598 posts, RR: 20
Reply 18, posted (4 years 12 months 3 days 18 hours ago) and read 2534 times:



Quoting Carpethead (Reply 14):
In fact, outside of the Tokyo airports, US & Japan have a de-facto Open Skies. US carriers are more than free to serve NGO, KIX, or FUK because those airports don't even have slot-restrictions and more than likely those airports will more than welcome their service and hawk the Ministry of Transport to rubber stamp the approval. The big, big problem is generating traffic.

In other words it will screw over the other airports even more.

It will definatly benefit Star Alliance the most as NH wants anti-trust protection so that they can put their number on all Star flights to the US and some US domestic flights. They also want to be able to put codeshare numbers on their inter-asia flights



Yes...I am not a KIX fan. Let's Japanese Aviation!
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