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Brazil-US / US-Brazil - Mar/09 Numbers  
User currently offlineLipeGIG From Brazil, joined May 2005, 11365 posts, RR: 59
Posted (4 years 6 months 3 weeks 6 days 4 hours ago) and read 3769 times:
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Here's the numbers obtained from DOT website. They are the numbers airlines send to DOT so it might be considered official numbers.

I made a comparison with march 2008 for DL, JJ and AA, which added new flights.
It's clear the crisis hit the traffic as well as new flights help to diversify O&D of passengers. But still there's a lot to do as places like BSB, CWB and POA are not serviced yet, even being cities with more than 2 million people and good business (or government) activity

So lets do this:

2009

JAL

GRU-JFK 2308 pax - 145t - 55.9%
JFK-GRU 2429 pax - 91 t - 58.9%

KE

GRU-LAX - 1175 pax - 34.8%
LAX-GRU - 1696 pax - 50.2%

DL

ATL-GRU - B764/B763 (mix) - 5931 pax - 215t - 79.7%
ATL-GIG - B764/B763 (mix) - 5418 pax - 245t - 79.0%
JFK-GRU - B763 - 3086 pax - 227t - 62.1%
ATL-MAO - B73G - 951 pax - 0.3t - 45.1%
ATL-REC/FOR - B752/B763 (mix) - 7t - 51.3%
GIG-ATL - B764/B763 (mix) - 5402 pax - 166t - 78.6%
GRU-ATL - B764/B763 (mix) - 5006 pax - 490t - 66.2%
MAO-ATL - B73G - 1086 pax - 20t - 46.1%
GRU-JFK - B763 - 2206 pax - 232t - 44.4%
REC/FOR-ATL - B752/B763 (mix) - 899 pax - 32t - 39.8%

DL 2008 : 33260 pax (GRU 66.5% GIG 33.5%)
DL 2009 : 31288 pax (GRU 51.9% GIG 34.6% MAO 6.9% FOR/.REC 6.6%)


JJ

GRU-JFK - 8872 pax - 481t - 68.5%
GRU-MIA - 4219 pax - 1.026t - 34.9%
GRU-MCO - 3940 pax - 15t - 59.7%
GIG-MIA - 3642 pax - 51t - 57.3%
GIG-JFK - 2637 pax - 70t - 71.5%
MAO-MIA - 1595 pax - 47t - 25.1%
GRU-SSA-MIA - 762 pax - 29t - 72.9%
JFK-GRU - 8703 pax - 330t - 67.2%
MCO-GRU - 4375 pax - 45t - 66.3%
MIA-GRU - 4024 pax - 452t - 33.3%
MIA-GIG - 3826 pax - 157t - 60.2%
JFK-GIG - 2244 pax - 30t - 60.8%
MIA-MAO - 2019 pax - 26t - 31.8%
MIA-SSA-GRU - 961 pax - 96t - 92.0%


2008: 58368 pax ( GRU 82.6% MAO 14.6% SSA 3.2% )
2009: 51819 pax ( GRU 73.3% GIG 16.4% MAO 7.0% SSA 3.3%)


UA

GRU-IAD - 6092* pax - 390t - 76.5%
* from GIG: 1827 pax - 97t
GRU-ORD - 3900 pax - 289t - 68.7%
GIG-IAD - 496 pax - (4 flights) - 15t - 67.8%
IAD-GRU - 6328 pax - 533t - 79.5%
* to GIG: 1820 pax - 216t
ORD-GRU - 4637 pax - 321t - 81.7%
IAD-GIG - 465 pax - (3 fligths) - 11t - 84.7%

CO

IAH-GRU - 6039* pax - 610t - 82.9%
* To GIG: 2942 pax (48.5%) - 519t (83%)
EWR-GRU - 4220 pax - 205t - 78.2%
GRU-IAH - 5489* pax - 396t - 75.3%
* From GIG: 2979 pax (54.3%) - 61t (15.5%)
GRU-EWR - 3695 pax - 485t - 68.5%

AA

MIA-GRU - 13.675 pax - 654t - 64.0%
MIA-GIG - 8.545 pax - 551t - 75.0%
JFK-GRU - 6.513 pax - 340t - 88.3%
* To GIG: 2323 pax (36%) - 94t (28%)
DFW-GRU - 5.860 pax - 522t - 76.8%
MIA-SSA-REC - 3186 pax - 185t - 50.2%
* To REC: 1753 pax (55%) - 52t (28%)
MIA-CNF - 2.106 pax - 224t - 53.4%
GRU-MIA - 9698 pax - 670t - 45.0%
GIG-MIA - 6451 pax - 492t - 55.6%
GRU-DFW - 5686 pax - 361t - 74.6%
GRU-JFK - 5080 pax - 270t - 68.9%
* From GIG: 1791 pax (35%) 0t (0)
REC-MIA - 2271 pax - 317t - 36.7%
* From SSA: 1054 pax (46.5%) 94t (30%)
CNF-MIA - 1604 pax - 68t - 43.1%


AA 2008 : 72,025 (GRU 68.6% GIG 31.4%)
AA 2009 : 70,675 (GRU 59.9% GIG 27.1% REC/SSA 7.7% CNF 5.3%)


- In 2008, many routes like JAL GRU-JFK, JJ GRU-JFK / JFK-GRU , AA GRU-DFW, JFK-GRU, MIA-GIG, MIA-GRU, DL GIG-ATL, GRU-ATL, among others, were over 85% in loads.
UA was the only one in 2008 with numbers around low 70's.


Opinions ?


New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
51 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineWorldTraveler From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 1, posted (4 years 6 months 3 weeks 6 days 1 hour ago) and read 3668 times:

To add a little color, DOT data for the 1st quarter indicates how much yields have fallen so these high loads are not necessarily indicative of anything good happening with US-Brazil traffic. 20% declines in yields are not uncommon. Because DOT int'l data is not public, I cannot post the specfics but it is fair to say that no carrier is unaffected.
It is noteworthy that AA's core MIA-GRU and GIG LFs are still some of the lowest for established routes; there is still too much capacity in that market and it is having a downward effect on every other Brazil route.

As for the new markets in the N/NE of Brazil, it is also noteworthy that the LFs for DL and AA's new routes are not appreciably different; both are well below what is necessary to make money, esp. given the yields that are being reported.

A lot of people will be interested to know that DL's average segment fares for ATL-MAO are the highest of any of the new markets (ATL-FOR/REC, ATL-MAO, MIA-CNF, MIA-REC/SSA). ATL-MAO is apparently doing as well financially as any of the other routes, and perhaps a whole lot better given that it is the lowest cost flight to operate - no augmented crew since it is under 8 hrs long, the smallest aircraft.

DL did perform better both in terms of pax boardings and yields from FOR than REC indicating the decision to pull back on REC is sound. However, AA's average fares are actually about the same to the dollar as what DL was getting; although ATL is a longer flight, AA's average fares are clearly not indicative of significant success, esp. given that AA is using a much more expensive aircraft and has higher system costs than DL.

Bottom line is that Brazil is still a difficult market given the economic environment. Yields are down across the board and many markets still have too much capacity. There is no evidence that any market is doing well enough to be profitable. There is also no reasonable criticism that can be leveled against any carrier that chooses to reduce capacity at this time ; and there should be questions being asked of those carriers that are not reducing capacity. Finally, none of the new US-Brazil markets are doing appreciably better than any others but the a.net CW about the lack of strength in ATL-MAO is clearly not supported by data. Based on data, MIA-CNF is actually generating the least amount of revenue given the stage length.


User currently offlineIrishAyes From United States of America, joined Jan 2008, 2088 posts, RR: 15
Reply 2, posted (4 years 6 months 3 weeks 6 days 1 hour ago) and read 3653 times:

Wow, the GIG numbers seem relatively good. KE does not look like it is doing so hot...


next flights: msp-phx-slc, msp-mdw, ord-sju, sju-dfw-ord, msp-dfw, dfw-phl, phl-msp, jfk-icn, icn-hkg-bkk-cdg
User currently offlineLipeGIG From Brazil, joined May 2005, 11365 posts, RR: 59
Reply 3, posted (4 years 6 months 3 weeks 6 days ago) and read 3611 times:
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Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 1):
Bottom line is that Brazil is still a difficult market given the economic environment. Yields are down across the board and many markets still have too much capacity. There is no evidence that any market is doing well enough to be profitable. There is also no reasonable criticism that can be leveled against any carrier that chooses to reduce capacity at this time ; and there should be questions being asked of those carriers that are not reducing capacity. Finally, none of the new US-Brazil markets are doing appreciably better than any others but the a.net CW about the lack of strength in ATL-MAO is clearly not supported by data. Based on data, MIA-CNF is actually generating the least amount of revenue given the stage length

April and ahead will show some reaction because of holidays and the fact that the Brazilian currency become stronger.
The new flights are not doing so great WT, but one detail to focus is that AA is getting cargo activity in better levels. It's probably the difference.
But both have the same problem, they expanded and the number of passengers is now reduced compared to 2008 levels. AA is still the leader, JJ is the second with around 50,000 passengers and DL the third with a little more than 30,000.

Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 2):
Wow, the GIG numbers seem relatively good. KE does not look like it is doing so hot...

And still with some room for growing. GIG is not the best place to do connections, and if it's the case, numbers would be bigger, but as passengers in connection always compare fares between Rio and Sao Paulo which are very similar, but i never expect 10 points difference on many routes. One of the reasons for the flights to Rio to perform better is the oil & gas and shipyards areas, which continue to show strong activity even during the worst moments of the crisis.
Rio does not have ethanol, big banks, and companies dealing with derivatives, only big cash cows like Petrobras, Vale and Telemar, all among the biggest Brazilian ones, but probably also the big ones in terms of cash. And they never stop investments.
KE in fact since this flight begin never presented a very good number.



New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
User currently onlineMaverickM11 From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 16942 posts, RR: 48
Reply 4, posted (4 years 6 months 3 weeks 6 days ago) and read 3576 times:



Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 1):
ATL-MAO is apparently doing as well financially as any of the other routes,

Whatever "other routes" you're referring to are doomed.



E pur si muove -Galileo
User currently offlineWorldTraveler From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 5, posted (4 years 6 months 3 weeks 6 days ago) and read 3565 times:



Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 3):
The new flights are not doing so great WT, but one detail to focus is that AA is getting cargo activity in better levels.

yes, AA is generating good cargo loads but way too many people here try to believe that cargo can pull a money-losing route out of the hole and it cannot.
Cargo can indeed turn a close to break even route into a profitable route but passenger airline costs simply do not reduce enough on the passenger side to make cargo profitable if passenger operations are not.
Yes, AA is carrying cargo but they are using much more expensive airplanes than DL to carry that cargo - and AA's system costs are higher than DL's. In terms of margin, AA and DL might come in pretty close but in terms of absolute dollars, there is no doubt that AA is losing more money.

Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 3):
AA is still the leader, JJ is the second with around 50,000 passengers and DL the third with a little more than 30,000.

And this validates what I have said for quite some time. DL is the only reasonable challenger to AA in Brazil; even though DL is half the size of JJ and under half the size of AA, DL has the same type of network footprint and provides the same level of service as AA.

It is also noteworthy that DL is not using all of its frequencies now and thus only has the potential to grow its presence in Brazil without lengthy route cases; AA is already pretty well operating close to the capacity permitted by its frequencies.

CO is moving into the ring with its new IAH-GIG service but the only way that CO or UA will become significant players in deep S. America relative to AA and DL is if CO and UA make their operations a Joint Venture - something that will be very difficult to manage given that there are alot of similarities between UA and CO's US-Brazil operations.

Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 2):
KE does not look like it is doing so hot...

Although if JAL does go ahead and dump NRT, it could help KE.
Also, DL was not operating its LAX-GRU flight at the time of this data. It is still very possible that DL might take over LAX-GRU completely. If frequencies are limited, a DL-KE joint venture on ICN-JFK-NRT operated by a KE 772 might make more sense than having KE and DL both compete from LAX.


User currently offlineWorldTraveler From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 6, posted (4 years 6 months 3 weeks 5 days 23 hours ago) and read 3512 times:



Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 4):
Whatever "other routes" you're referring to are doomed.

including the ones operated by AA, I presume?

There is absolutely no data to show that AA is doing any better on its new routes than DL.

IN fact, correct me if I'm wrong, but hasn't AA downgraded its SSA/REC route to a 757? If so, then apparently the cargo revenues aren't enough to make a difference in the higher costs of the 757. And AA's REC/SSA routing is still more expensive because of operating a tag between SSA and REC. DL is getting similar revenues without operating the extra tag within Brazil and of course DL's system costs are lower than AA's.


User currently offlineIncitatus From Brazil, joined Feb 2005, 3964 posts, RR: 13
Reply 7, posted (4 years 6 months 3 weeks 5 days 23 hours ago) and read 3483 times:



Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 5):
It is also noteworthy that DL is not using all of its frequencies now and thus only has the potential to grow its presence in Brazil without lengthy route cases; AA is already pretty well operating close to the capacity permitted by its frequencies.

That is one amazing way to display reality. It could be said that DL got frequencies that it cannot use because of its inability to attract traffic in the US-Brazil market.

I do wonder in your very thorough analysis why New York, arguably the most important market in the US from Brazil, is not even mentioned.

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 5):
DL is the only reasonable challenger to AA in Brazil; even though DL is half the size of JJ and under half the size of AA, DL has the same type of network footprint and provides the same level of service as AA.

I am going to offer an airline-neutral prediction: In 5 years there will be two Brazilian cities connected to ATL - Sao Paulo and Rio. There will be about 10 connected to MIA.

If DL ends up with a hub in MIA, some/all of those services may be on DL.

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 1):
ATL-MAO is apparently doing as well financially as any of the other routes, and perhaps a whole lot better given that it is the lowest cost flight to operate - no augmented crew since it is under 8 hrs long, the smallest aircraft.

Why is ATL-MAO then chopped to 2 x week off-season?

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 1):
However, AA's average fares are actually about the same to the dollar as what DL was getting; although ATL is a longer flight, AA's average fares are clearly not indicative of significant success

I don't know if I get this: When DL's average fares are greater than AA's, that is a sign of "significant success". When AA's average fares are greater than DL's, that is a sign of nothing. Is that what you are saying?  Wink


User currently onlineMaverickM11 From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 16942 posts, RR: 48
Reply 8, posted (4 years 6 months 3 weeks 5 days 22 hours ago) and read 3451 times:



Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 5):
Yes, AA is carrying cargo but they are using much more expensive airplanes than DL to carry that cargo - and AA's system costs are higher than DL's. In terms of margin,

Doesn't matter a heckuva lot when your average load factor on MAO starts with a 3. Or barely in the low 50s in the case of FOR/REC on a stage length that is comparable to a Transatlantic flight--never mind double the aircraft time needed for some of these.

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 5):
DL is the only reasonable challenger to AA in Brazil

Until DL actually has a local market, it will always be collateral damage between any other players that do have access to a local market, ie AA and JJ.

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 5):
It is also noteworthy that DL is not using all of its frequencies now and thus only has the potential to grow its presence in Brazil without lengthy route cases

Only if they want to fly even more empty seats to Brazil.

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 6):
including the ones operated by AA, I presume?

I don't think AA is doing particularly well to secondary Brazil either, but if any market is going to develop any time soon, it's going to be MIA, or NYC with MIA fares. Any DL traffic could go over any other hub on the Eastern Seaboard and it would make just as little sense.



E pur si muove -Galileo
User currently offlineLipeGIG From Brazil, joined May 2005, 11365 posts, RR: 59
Reply 9, posted (4 years 6 months 3 weeks 5 days 19 hours ago) and read 3384 times:
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Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 5):
CO is moving into the ring with its new IAH-GIG service but the only way that CO or UA will become significant players in deep S. America relative to AA and DL is if CO and UA make their operations a Joint Venture - something that will be very difficult to manage given that there are alot of similarities between UA and CO's US-Brazil operations.

AA and DL allowed CO to run their gold mine IAH-GIG.
UA will not fight for being a significant player in deep South America because they can't compete without JFK, MIA or even a hub to the South like ATL.
CO is a little different but their limit is on equipment. They can in my view run flights like EWR-EZE and EWR-GIG, specially with JJ as a partner. But New York alone is not enough and IAH is strong on Energy destinations (explains why IAH-GIG received their large 767) which reduces the size of flights like IAH-SCL.
Something we might see is CO-JJ being closer and you can even expect JJ to move their ops from JFK to EWR !

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 5):
Although if JAL does go ahead and dump NRT, it could help KE.

I disagree with you. In my view the NRT traffic will be shared among several airlines, without any specific airline being stronger than other. The only one that could be a little more benefited is AA and BA right now because of OW ties. AA could try for example to run a little more year round DFW flights.

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 5):
yes, AA is generating good cargo loads but way too many people here try to believe that cargo can pull a money-losing route out of the hole and it cannot

Without looking to cargo yields i agree with you. Cargo is not only weight but also we need to know the size ! 2t in a 767 carrying light cargo but with big volumes/size could be better than 21t of items on a 772.

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 5):
And this validates what I have said for quite some time. DL is the only reasonable challenger to AA in Brazil; even though DL is half the size of JJ and under half the size of AA, DL has the same type of network footprint and provides the same level of service as AA.

Any airline can challenge AA. The fact is that AA is as big in Sao Paulo as any airline all around Brazil. So without challenge Sao Paulo position (something difficult because of the restrictions in place), the only way is to try to better understand the market. It's clear to me for example that mostly leisure markets like REC, SSA, MAO and others, are not strong enough for off-season, but airlines, instead of trying to reinvent themselves should focus on fly to a place like POA and CWB, even with stops. POA and CWB for sure have more than 150 passengers daily to the United States (in real numbers) and they are more about a year-round market.

Places like REC, SSA, FOR, NAT, BEL, demands some attitude from both governments, like the easy on Visa Policy and more US hotel chains investments. They work fine for Europeans which do not demand Visa, should be a better market for a daily flight to North America.

Quoting Incitatus (Reply 7):
I am going to offer an airline-neutral prediction: In 5 years there will be two Brazilian cities connected to ATL - Sao Paulo and Rio. There will be about 10 connected to MIA.

With the current visa requirement, you could be right.



New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
User currently offlineWorldTraveler From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 10, posted (4 years 6 months 3 weeks 5 days 19 hours ago) and read 3340 times:



Quoting Incitatus (Reply 7):
That is one amazing way to display reality. It could be said that DL got frequencies that it cannot use because of its inability to attract traffic in the US-Brazil market.

or that the market collapsed... I suppose it escapes you that DL actually has one of the lowest reductions in passengers compared to other airlines. AA and DL in fact are holding onto their traffic in Brazil BECAUSE of their new routes.

Quoting Incitatus (Reply 7):
I do wonder in your very thorough analysis why New York, arguably the most important market in the US from Brazil, is not even mentioned.

You do realize that DL's LF on JFK-GRU is ONE POINT different from AA on JFK-GRU, don't you?
DL isn't flying multiple 777s per day on the route and nobody in the DL fanboy camp is trying to convince anyone here that DL is doing swimmingly in JFK-GRU. The fact is that DL's JFKGRU route is doing well enough for THEM to justify keeping. It should be pretty obvious that DL doesn't keep routes around that cannot hold their own.

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 8):
Doesn't matter a heckuva lot when your average load factor on MAO starts with a 3. Or barely in the low 50s in the case of FOR/REC on a stage length that is comparable to a Transatlantic flight--never mind double the aircraft time needed for some of these.

You know that is really just an attempt to deflect the reality that AA is nowhere near making money in a number of key Brazil markets, including its key MIA routes. I am not pretending that MAO is a money maker but I CAN assure you that DL is nowhere near close to losing the amount of money that AA is flushing down the drain on its MIA-Brazil routes. There is no justifiable explanation for allowing a key market like MIA-Brazil to run LFs in the 50s and still be flying the most expensive aircraft in AA's fleet multiple times per day. There is no other route on AA's network that is performing as poorly and yet AA is not reducing capacity.

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 8):
any market is going to develop any time soon, it's going to be MIA, or NYC with MIA fares.

but yet, those markets AREN't delivering any revenue advantage since AA's average fares on its new services are actually WORSE than DL's on a stage length adjusted basis - and in some cases on an absolute basis.

Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 9):
AA and DL allowed CO to run their gold mine IAH-GIG.

I don't think AA or DL could have possibly stopped CO from tapping the IAH-GIG market. CO knows Latin America well enough to know where the money is and they aren't about to let someone else come in and steal passengers from their hub. The only way AA or DL could have stolen those passengers is by trashing the fares which would have resulted in a similar trashing by CO in another market. It is CO's market and they have every right to make the money on it. It is all the other connecting markets west and north of Texas that are up for grabs and AA and DL will vigorously compete for those.

Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 9):
In my view the NRT traffic will be shared among several airlines, without any specific airline being stronger than other

You do realize that KE also flies NRT-LAX as well as LAX-GRU? Plus, there is some intra-Asian traffic which JAL will lose. Yes, the traffic will be up for grabs and AA, CO, and DL already carry a pretty big chunk of NRT-S. America traffic.... but KE will do everything they can to get in the mix as well.

Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 9):
POA and CWB for sure have more than 150 passengers daily to the United States (in real numbers) and they are more about a year-round market.

amen, brother!
The South of Brazil generates several times more wealth than the entire NE combined.

Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 9):
With the current visa requirement, you could be right.

You do realize that just about every other Latin American market requires visas of Americans (and vice versa) and yet DL manages to do just fine in those markets.

Again, there is NO compelling evidence that AA is doing appreciably better in its new markets than DL is. The loads are not that much stronger, the average fares are about the same, and AA is a higher cost producer which automatically makes it harder for them to make money.
if you want to argue that no secondary markets will work, then let's rule it out for every airline... but the fact of the matter is that DL is doing as well as AA in every market by every available public statistic.


User currently offlineMAH4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 32177 posts, RR: 72
Reply 11, posted (4 years 6 months 3 weeks 5 days 19 hours ago) and read 3330 times:

Not only has AA been very happy with the performance of SSA, CNF and REC, but additional service to two new markets - FOR and BSB - will be applied for next year as AA continues to expand into Brazil.

AA has maintained daily service to SSA/REC and increased service to CNF by an additional frequency since launch.



a.
User currently offlineCOFanNYC From United States of America, joined Jan 2007, 214 posts, RR: 0
Reply 12, posted (4 years 6 months 3 weeks 5 days 15 hours ago) and read 3235 times:



Quoting LipeGIG (Thread starter):
Here's the numbers obtained from DOT website. They are the numbers airlines send to DOT so it might be considered official numbers.

Do you have a link to which table you used to pull this data?


User currently offlineLipeGIG From Brazil, joined May 2005, 11365 posts, RR: 59
Reply 13, posted (4 years 6 months 3 weeks 5 days 15 hours ago) and read 3234 times:
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Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 10):
You do realize that just about every other Latin American market requires visas of Americans (and vice versa) and yet DL manages to do just fine in those markets

Yes, but not so far for leisure destinations.

Quoting COFanNYC (Reply 12):
Do you have a link to which table you used to pull this data?

Of course,
http://www.transtats.bts.gov/Tables....riers&DB_Short_Name=Air%20Carriers

Use both T-100 International to see Destination number for tags.



New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
User currently offlineWorldTraveler From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 14, posted (4 years 6 months 3 weeks 5 days 8 hours ago) and read 3161 times:



Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 13):
Yes, but not so far for leisure destinations.

The whole point of the NE Brazil markets is to make Brazil a tourist destination for Americans. It's hard to sell Americans on an 8 hr flight to a tourist destination to begin with and the visa requirements only compound it. IN reality, there are no real tourist destinations in S. America for N. Americans (USA types) right now.

Also, FOR is not as much a tourist destination as it is a retirement destination for a growing number of Americans. If you are bothering to retire someplace, you obviously will spend the money on the documentation necessary to travel there.

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 11):

Not only has AA been very happy with the performance of SSA, CNF and REC, but additional service to two new markets - FOR and BSB - will be applied for next year as AA continues to expand into Brazil.

but that doesn't mean it is profitable or that AA is doing well financially. It simply says that for strategic reasons, AA continues to focus its attention on Latin America which is the only region that AA serves that it dominates.
Other carriers like CO and DL do not place such a singular focus on any one market or region; if a flight underperforms, they pull the plug. AA clearly treats markets in Latin America differently than in other parts of the world... it is understandable given AA"s network but other airlines have much more diverse networks and therefore are not as dependent on one region of the world.


User currently offlineLipeGIG From Brazil, joined May 2005, 11365 posts, RR: 59
Reply 15, posted (4 years 6 months 3 weeks 5 days 5 hours ago) and read 3110 times:
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Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 14):
The whole point of the NE Brazil markets is to make Brazil a tourist destination for Americans. It's hard to sell Americans on an 8 hr flight to a tourist destination to begin with and the visa requirements only compound it. IN reality, there are no real tourist destinations in S. America for N. Americans (USA types) right now.

Also, FOR is not as much a tourist destination as it is a retirement destination for a growing number of Americans. If you are bothering to retire someplace, you obviously will spend the money on the documentation necessary to travel there.

I have to say that i agree with you. The markets were not created before the flights and in fact the majority of traffic probably come from REC, FOR and SSA (where i believe there's a good leisure base).
Brazil's leisure real destinations are BPS, Buzios/Cabo Frio, Maragogi, Porto de Galinhas... all of them except for BPS lack hotels, airports.... Brazil has never similar to CUN or anything in the Caribbean in terms of structure.

So any route to Brazil need to rely on local demand plus business, or to run flights with tags to destionations without conditions to have non-stop service becuase of runway restriction (POA and CWB).

DL could get better results if they fly ATL-FOR-CWB and ATL-REC-POA. POA and CWB customers already make stops, and would be a preparation for a future non-stop, and any airline can even consider some non-stop ATL-POA, specially in the IATA summer



New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
User currently offline2travel2know From Panama, joined Apr 2005, 3580 posts, RR: 4
Reply 16, posted (4 years 6 months 3 weeks 4 days 18 hours ago) and read 2965 times:



Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 15):
DL could get better results if they fly ATL-FOR-CWB and ATL-REC-POA. POA and CWB customers already make stops, and would be a preparation for a future non-stop, and any airline can even consider some non-stop ATL-POA, specially in the IATA summer

From a financial point of view those FOR-CWB and REC-POA tag-ons aren't attractive at all. Just look at the distances, it's not something like a GRU-GIG/CNF. The only long Brazilian tag-on flights I can recall are when AF flew CDG-REC-GIG/GRU and REC was more of a tech-stop.

Sure, both CWB and POA need international flights to a reliable hub badly, so to by-pass GRU, GIG or that GRU-CGH airport transfer. Also MVD doesn't quite work well for POA passengers due to the POA-MVD-POA schedules, and TA future POA-LIM won't make that huge impact on POA because TA neither flies LIM-MIA nor LIM-MCO.

While it'll look nice, to have POA and CWB connecte with ATL, the performance will always be normal when compared to an awesome performance of a possible POA/CWB-MIA.

And I'll dare to guess, CM wants to fly to both CWB and POA in the near future.



I don't work for COPA Airlines!
User currently offlineMAH4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 32177 posts, RR: 72
Reply 17, posted (4 years 6 months 3 weeks 4 days 15 hours ago) and read 2907 times:



Quoting 2travel2know (Reply 16):
and TA future POA-LIM won't make that huge impact on POA because TA neither flies LIM-MIA nor LIM-MCO.

TA doesn't fly MIA-LIM yet. That should be changing soon.



a.
User currently offlineLH506 From Ecuador, joined May 2007, 461 posts, RR: 0
Reply 18, posted (4 years 6 months 3 weeks 4 days 10 hours ago) and read 2851 times:



Quoting LipeGIG (Thread starter):
Here's the numbers obtained from DOT website. They are the numbers airlines send to DOT so it might be considered official numbers.

Hello LipiGIG,

do you also have Brazil-Europe and Brazil-South America data?



NOT FLOWN: 707 717 736/9 764 77L 787 300B2 300B4 345 RJ70/146-100 F27 ATR72 CRJ1/4/10 E120/135/40/95 Q1/2/3 M87
User currently offlineLipeGIG From Brazil, joined May 2005, 11365 posts, RR: 59
Reply 19, posted (4 years 6 months 3 weeks 4 days 5 hours ago) and read 2797 times:
AIRLINERS.NET CREW
FORUM MODERATOR



Quoting LH506 (Reply 18):
Hello LipiGIG,

do you also have Brazil-Europe and Brazil-South America data?

Only Brazil-UK, Brazil-Portugal and Brazil-Spain numbers but not so complete. UK only pax numbers, Portugal only also pax numbers, Spain pax+cargo.
South America, only to/from Colombia and Chile.

As ANAC do not provide such data, the availability is limited to other countries agencies that release such data.

I got info from some airlines but i'm not authorized to release the info.

Let me know if you need any additional info.

Quoting 2travel2know (Reply 16):
From a financial point of view those FOR-CWB and REC-POA tag-ons aren't attractive at all

It depends. Looking to a financial point of view, it's interesting because FOR and REC alone do not make money. POA and CWB would allow a premium on every ticket.

Quoting 2travel2know (Reply 16):
While it'll look nice, to have POA and CWB connecte with ATL, the performance will always be normal when compared to an awesome performance of a possible POA/CWB-MIA.

There's two things that we need to think before aviation. First, the player that establish before in a given market have better chance to survive, second, we don't know which equipment will be provided. MIA is big and attractive for Brazilians, but it's not so big as the rest of the United States together, so any US points with easy connections and well located (of course MIA is the best and closer point) works fine.
Furthermore, all depends on the type of aircraft. Lets say CWB and POA got bigger runways, there's only 14 frequencies available and in my view CO or DL or US will got 7 and AA other 7. If AA runs BSB, how they will reach CWB or POA ?

Here i put more of a business and economic point of view than pure aviation. The size of the two markets represents for sure enough to fill 2 flights a day to the United States and there's what happen today, but thru mainly Sao Paulo. If DL successfuly manage to enter POA or CWB markets, lets say 50% in the first moment, it's enough to fill the planes with other passengers from the Northeast.
Other solution is to extend the not so good performer JFK route to CWB or POA, or, as i use to say, ask for JFK-GIG and run two tags from Rio and Sao Paulo to reach both Curitiba and Porto Alegre.
DL needs to create something new to grow. It's clear to me they can't grow so much in Sao Paulo (and between all airlines they have the lower share of revenue from Sao Paulo, a little more than 50%). Northeast alone, now, will not work.

Quoting 2travel2know (Reply 16):
And I'll dare to guess, CM wants to fly to both CWB and POA in the near future.

Would be smart, but i believe BSB will come first. In fact, i believe BSB is delayed and should come before CNF.



New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
User currently offline2travel2know From Panama, joined Apr 2005, 3580 posts, RR: 4
Reply 20, posted (4 years 6 months 3 weeks 4 days 2 hours ago) and read 2722 times:



Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 19):
Would be smart, but i believe BSB will come first. In fact, i believe BSB is delayed and should come before CNF.

Were you trying to say "...should had come first before CNF"? CM already flies to CNF

Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 19):
It depends. Looking to a financial point of view, it's interesting because FOR and REC alone do not make money. POA and CWB would allow a premium on every ticket.

True, but what about those very long tag-ons, from FOR/REC to CWB/POA?



I don't work for COPA Airlines!
User currently offlineWorldTraveler From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 21, posted (4 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 20 hours ago) and read 2632 times:



Quoting 2travel2know (Reply 16):
From a financial point of view those FOR-CWB and REC-POA tag-ons aren't attractive at all. Just look at the distances, it's not something like a GRU-GIG/CNF.

757s have not been used for longhaul int'l flying from Brazil; the economics of a widebody vs a narrowbody are considerably different from a widebody.

Also, if you are going to fly a tag, typically the greatest value comes if the tag is of a medium length; short haul tags just as short haul flights incur heavy costs with little revenue increase. I'm not sure that tags from the NE of Brazil to the South are viable but BSB or MAO is quite a bit different story.

Also, the south of Brazil is a business destination. Having the only direct service to the US and being able to draw a decent business population changes the economics quite a bit.

DL and AA both have operated/are operating tags/circle flights involving the NE and there is FAR less business in those markets than there is in the south of Brazil. Lipe can correct me but I believe that the state of Parana (CWB's state) generates more economic activity than all of the states of the NE combined. The economy of Rio Grande do Sul (POA) is slightly larger than Parana. And Santa Catarina is in between PR and RS geographically so would likely help whichever state gets int'l air service.


User currently offlineLAXintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 24325 posts, RR: 47
Reply 22, posted (4 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 20 hours ago) and read 2627 times:



Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 3):
KE in fact since this flight begin never presented a very good number.

Well I have been saying so for a while now as I can often see their local LAX numbers, but some folks seem to think the route it a gold mine.

Most of the time I have looked at the flight it has averaged in the low 100's total passengers.

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 10):
You do realize that KE also flies NRT-LAX as well as LAX-GRU?

But the KE NRT flight does not come close to connecting with the GRU flight at LAX without 8-14hr layovers.



From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
User currently offlineIncitatus From Brazil, joined Feb 2005, 3964 posts, RR: 13
Reply 23, posted (4 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 17 hours ago) and read 2593 times:



Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 19):
The size of the two markets represents for sure enough to fill 2 flights a day to the United States

A market that is large enough to fill up two flights WILL NOT fill up those two flights if they exist. Many passengers will continue to make connections either because of timing, airline preference or price. That is true even on the same airline. I have a friend at LIS who wanted to fly to CNF. The best price TAP offered her was through Rio. She bought the connection.

If POA has say an average of 200 passengers per day to North America, then at best it can fill up one 200-seater 4 times per week.

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 10):
You do realize that DL's LF on JFK-GRU is ONE POINT different from AA on JFK-GRU, don't you?

No I don't. You are wrong. Please check the numbers again. DL's market share is less than half of AA's in JFK-GRU-JFK.


User currently offlineWorldTraveler From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 24, posted (4 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 17 hours ago) and read 2574 times:

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 22):
But the KE NRT flight does not come close to connecting with the GRU flight at LAX without 8-14hr layovers.

but schedules can be changed.... there was talk that DL and KE were going to swap some flights between LAX-ICN this past year. I still wouldn't be surprised if DL ends up operating LAX-GRU with an origination in either Japan or Korea or at least have very closely timed flights with close cooperation with the int'l partner.


Quoting Incitatus (Reply 23):
DL's market share is less than half of AA's in JFK-GRU-JFK.

I didn't say market share... I said load factor (that's what LF means).
The whole reason AA is having ridiculously low LFs on so many routes to Brazil is because they are pursuing a market share strategy when the market is clearly not there.
IF AA wants to do that, that is what the competition has to deal with... but I don't want to hear people on here saying that AA is doing well in Brazil because from a financial standpoint they clearly are not.... market share strategies are rarely profitable. AA is defending its position in Latin America during this downturn but they are clearly not acting in the best financial interests in doing so. Other carriers are willing to make the cuts necessary to provide decent financial returns.

[Edited 2009-09-27 19:51:16]

25 LipeGIG : Said that BSB should come before CNF. If you will not use the plane for long hours, and if you can charge enough for a profitable operation, i can't
26 LAXintl : Can, could, should etc. Point is the flights do not connect, and to do so would require something to give which likely is not the NRT flight as its s
27 CrAAzy : Again and again I try to read your threads with some objectivity, but it always comes down to AA load factors must mean failure, AA cargo can't carry
28 WorldTraveler : I didn't say that AA is failing. but I get equally tired of hearing AA supporters try and tell us how well AA is doing when publicly available statis
29 Incitatus : I know you did. You had not read it and you still have not read it. That is not 1 point difference like you said in reply 10. If you like to stick to
30 MaverickM11 : Over the last twelve months DL is 13 points behind AA. Well, duh. They're not even flying most of it for a quarter. Sure, the ONE person flying to AT
31 WorldTraveler : actually, DL JFK-GRU did fairly similarly on a LF basis as AA did on MIA-GRU. No one here as said that DL should be flying JFK-GRU more than they are
32 Incitatus : Exactly. DL's other purpose is to sit on a bunch of DoT-awarded frequencies in markets that do not have the most remote chance of making money. Like
33 LipeGIG : AA in fact was helped by the restrictions on many markets like Brazil and Argentina. Also, they, second by TAM, now seems to be very happy with the l
34 WorldTraveler : Every time you bring up that argument, you fail to mention that AA is one of the very few airlines that has actually had frequencies stripped from it
35 MaverickM11 : There is no comparison; DL has turned requesting and holding frequencies it can't handle into part of its route planning process, while other carrier
36 MAH4546 : AA never had frequencies stripped for non-use, despite the fact that certain fools on this website like to spread that myth. AA had Colombia frequenci
37 Incitatus : Correct me if I am wrong but we are yet to see an airline other than DL take 10 restricted frequencies into another country and change its operating
38 WorldTraveler : Revisionist history at its best. The point still remains that AA is the only carrier that has had frequencies stripped from it... quite an accomplish
39 MaverickM11 : All it would take is for a carrier to request any one of DL's dozen + unused frequencies and they'd be in a similar position. At best they'd have to
40 WorldTraveler : But nobody IS asking for the frequencies. Until someone actually wants what DL is not flying, it isn't an issue for anyone except those that want to
41 LipeGIG : The fact is, right now, only CO is using 100% of their frequencies to Brazil. UA is not using 7, AA is not using 10, JJ is not using 2/3 and DL is no
42 MaverickM11 : CO. Duck. No, it is because any time DL asks for an alottment it's almost 100% certain that they won't use it. Is there a single DL request that has
43 WorldTraveler : Brazil is hardly the sum total of the network that CO operates under restricted authority from the DOT. And yet no one else is asking for them..... a
44 MaverickM11 : Did I say Brazil? What exactly is CO not using? WT, you have no argument. DL has not flown anywhere close to 100% of anything it has one. End of stor
45 LipeGIG : CO has three advantages over DL/AA despite it's not that big: - New York area better position - Smaller planes for routes with competition or new rout
46 WorldTraveler : and neither is AA. The simple story is that you want to continue to beat a drum that matters to absolutely no one, AA and CO included, as if you some
47 MAH4546 : Among restricted frequencies, AA is currently using every single restricted frequency they have to every single restricted access country except seven
48 AznMadSci : So enlighten us Worldy, answer Maverick's question and tell us what restricted authority is CO not using?
49 MaverickM11 : You were the one that brought it up! And as soon as DL's embarassing record is brought up you quickly claim it doesn't matter. So has DL by not flyin
50 LDVAviation : Interesting. From a network standpoint, I see this as a sign of weakness. Perhaps WorldTraveler will provide some insight on that?
51 LipeGIG : WT, only 2 carriers (AA and DL) have been flying to GIG non stop. And UA has the same network and is doing not so well to Brazil as CO. And about no
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