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DY Founder - Highspeed Rail Is Madness  
User currently offlineOyKIE From Norway, joined Jan 2006, 2755 posts, RR: 4
Posted (5 years 2 months 4 weeks 21 hours ago) and read 7659 times:

DY founder Bjørn Kjos has been interviewed by the Norwegian engineering magazine”Teknisk ukeblad.” He has some interesting comments about the aviation industry, the environment as well as his own company. I know that he is promoting his airline, but he has some nice points.

Here are some quotes.
- About the environment:

“After 2020 planes will pollute 50% less than today”

“A 787 Dreamliner CO2 emission is 65 gram pr kilometer. The TGV train CO2 emission is 55 gram pr kilometer”

“High-speed rail is madness. There is so little to save. Emissions from planes will be lower even before biofuel.”

“On a flight from OSLBGO on their new 737-800 the plane only uses 10 liters of fuel per passenger. You need to put quite a few people onboard a Toyota Prius to compete with Norwegian on fuel economy”

About his airline.

“Norwegian will offer a lot more legroom than SAS. – New Recaro seats will be installed. ”

“Never expected Norwegian would be this large when he launched low cost services in Norway in 2003.

“Turnaround time is 20 minutes.”

“Will offer Internet access and cell phone use by year end. Will get STC certificate from Boeing 22. December. “

About himself and aviation.

“Wants the ban for liquid to go away.”

“As an old F104 starfighter pilot he got to fly an F-16. He says the Starfighter accelerates faster than the F-16. He does not mind another trip.”

The interview is only in Norwegian, but here is the link.

http://www.tu.no/motor/article224058.ece


Dream no small dream; it lacks magic. Dream large, then go make that dream real - Donald Douglas
29 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineSomeone83 From Norway, joined Sep 2006, 3516 posts, RR: 3
Reply 1, posted (5 years 2 months 4 weeks 21 hours ago) and read 7620 times:



Quoting OyKIE (Thread starter):
High-speed rail is madness. There is so little to save. Emissions from planes will be lower even before biofuel.”

Be aware that he is talking mainly about Norway regardning this

Quoting OyKIE (Thread starter):
“Norwegian will offer a lot more legroom than SAS. – New Recaro seats will be installed.

That's not completely true.......

Quoting OyKIE (Thread starter):
“Turnaround time is 20 minutes.”

He he, he claims SAS turnaround time in 45 minutes.....in Norway, SAS' typical turnaround time is 25 minutes


User currently offlineSpeedyGonzales From Norway, joined Sep 2007, 745 posts, RR: 0
Reply 2, posted (5 years 2 months 4 weeks 21 hours ago) and read 7579 times:



Quoting OyKIE (Thread starter):
“After 2020 planes will pollute 50% less than today”

Well, he didn't say how long after 2020...

Quoting OyKIE (Thread starter):
“A 787 Dreamliner CO2 emission is 65 gram pr kilometer. The TGV train CO2 emission is 55 gram pr kilometer”

I wonder how he dreamed up the number for the TGV. It looks like he assumed 100% coal power and running at max power all the time.

Quoting OyKIE (Thread starter):
“High-speed rail is madness. There is so little to save. Emissions from planes will be lower even before biofuel.”

Keep dreaming...



Las Malvinas son Argentinas
User currently offlineOyKIE From Norway, joined Jan 2006, 2755 posts, RR: 4
Reply 3, posted (5 years 2 months 4 weeks 20 hours ago) and read 7533 times:



Quoting Someone83 (Reply 1):
Be aware that he is talking mainly about Norway regardning this

 checkmark  It is this debate he is going after, but he hints about what he feels about high speed rail in Europe as well

Quoting Someone83 (Reply 1):
That's not completely true.......

I have not seen the new layout of his new seats. Does anyone know the best seast pitch? SAS has 180 seats, and DY will have 186.

Quoting Someone83 (Reply 1):
He he, he claims SAS turnaround time in 45 minutes.....in Norway, SAS' typical turnaround time is 25 minutes

yup. He must know this? No?

Quoting SpeedyGonzales (Reply 2):
Well, he didn't say how long after 2020...

Nope.

Quoting SpeedyGonzales (Reply 2):
I wonder how he dreamed up the number for the TGV. It looks like he assumed 100% coal power and running at max power all the time.

Not sure. In France 70% of the power comes from nuclear plants. But keep in mind that there is much electricity that is produced from coal even in Europe.

Quoting SpeedyGonzales (Reply 2):

Keep dreaming...

Are your sure if you add infrastructure, railways and all the forrest that will need to be taken away?



Dream no small dream; it lacks magic. Dream large, then go make that dream real - Donald Douglas
User currently offlineKleinsim From Qatar, joined Jan 2007, 154 posts, RR: 0
Reply 4, posted (5 years 2 months 4 weeks 20 hours ago) and read 7503 times:



Quoting OyKIE (Thread starter):
“A 787 Dreamliner CO2 emission is 65 gram pr kilometer. The TGV train CO2 emission is 55 gram pr kilometer”

Sure. 787 = 260 or so passengers. TGV = 400-500 passengers (or so). Plus, the dreamliner may be at cruise and not include takeoffs and landings. Not sure about the numbers for the TGV regarding acceleration and deceleration at stations. At the stagelengths that the two would likely compete at (<700km or so) I am sure that even the 787 would pollute more than the TGV, and by a much larger margin than the numbers quoted above. I am skeptical.

Kleinsim


User currently offlineUshermittwoch From Germany, joined Jan 2004, 2969 posts, RR: 16
Reply 5, posted (5 years 2 months 4 weeks 19 hours ago) and read 7363 times:

These statements have to be taken with a pound or two of salt.
Also, given Norway's unique topography, I can understand his prejudice against HSR. I mean, it is IMPOSSIBLE to get around that country quickly without flying. Also, given that Scandinavia is more or less an island, it is pretty hard to get the "mainland" Europe fast.
Although I find some of his points interesting, the TGV example was a bad choice, since, as pointed out before, it basically runs on nuclear generated power exclusively.



Where have all the tri-jets gone...
User currently offlineOyKIE From Norway, joined Jan 2006, 2755 posts, RR: 4
Reply 6, posted (5 years 2 months 4 weeks 17 hours ago) and read 7170 times:



Quoting Kleinsim (Reply 4):
I am sure that even the 787 would pollute more than the TGV, and by a much larger margin than the numbers quoted above. I am skeptical.

So am I, but could he just have made up the number. It could be as you state that this would be the 787 during cruise, compared to the TGV on top speed. However, it would be interesting to know if someone else (in this forum if we are lucky) has seen this comparison before and could give some insight as to how this conclusion has been made. He is after all a CEO of a respected company.

Quoting Ushermittwoch (Reply 5):
Also, given Norway's unique topography, I can understand his prejudice against HSR. I mean, it is IMPOSSIBLE to get around that country quickly without flying. Also, given that Scandinavia is more or less an island, it is pretty hard to get the "mainland" Europe fast.

In Norway it would be a huge cost, but with all the oil money here in Norway no one seems to bother that it will never be a commercial succsess. Unless the infrastructure is paid with taxpayers money.



Dream no small dream; it lacks magic. Dream large, then go make that dream real - Donald Douglas
User currently offlineMrocktor From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 1672 posts, RR: 49
Reply 7, posted (5 years 2 months 4 weeks 16 hours ago) and read 7128 times:

CO2 is environmentally irrelevant, this is marketing and defensive lobbying. He will say what he must say to keep eco-brainwashed customers flying and to keep the politicians they elect off his back. Bravo.

User currently offlineBurkhard From Germany, joined Nov 2006, 4409 posts, RR: 2
Reply 8, posted (5 years 2 months 4 weeks 16 hours ago) and read 7038 times:

I can give the numbers for the German ICE2. It is powered by 2x9600KW, runs 280km/h and has 800 seats. This makes 0.086 KWH/seatkm . With the German mix to produce electricity, 600g CO2 per seatkm, they produce 50 gramms of CO2/seat km. Norway is very different, since they have an infinite amount of water power available, but can ( and do ) export this electricity.

Long range flying currently is booked as 150g/seat km. This makes sense, Lufthansa had numbers a while ago about the A346 to be their most efficient long range plane around 4l/100 seat km, which are about 3 kg and convert to CO2 100g/seat km.

So if he is right about the factor of two, then indeed flying long range comes near to trains powered by mostly burning coal.


User currently offlineDocLightning From United States of America, joined Nov 2005, 20365 posts, RR: 59
Reply 9, posted (5 years 2 months 4 weeks 14 hours ago) and read 6839 times:

So here's the challenge: Find an airline exec who SUPPORTS HSR. Go ahead. Try to find one.

When you're done with that, find a pro-choice Catholic Cardinal.


User currently offlineTharanga From United States of America, joined Apr 2009, 1867 posts, RR: 1
Reply 10, posted (5 years 2 months 4 weeks 14 hours ago) and read 6782 times:



Quoting DocLightning (Reply 11):
So here's the challenge: Find an airline exec who SUPPORTS HSR. Go ahead. Try to find one.

When you're done with that, find a pro-choice Catholic Cardinal.

seeing as it doesn't compete with VS, and that his brand includes trains, maybe Richard Branson?

I wonder how the proposed west coast HSR line will affect the existing Virgin line on the west coast.


User currently offlineMaverickM11 From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 17829 posts, RR: 46
Reply 11, posted (5 years 2 months 4 weeks 14 hours ago) and read 6782 times:



Quoting DocLightning (Reply 11):
So here's the challenge: Find an airline exec who SUPPORTS HSR. Go ahead. Try to find one.

On the flipside, try finding someone who will fund HSR with their own money.



E pur si muove -Galileo
User currently offlineDocLightning From United States of America, joined Nov 2005, 20365 posts, RR: 59
Reply 12, posted (5 years 2 months 4 weeks 13 hours ago) and read 6743 times:



Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 13):

On the flipside, try finding someone who will fund HSR with their own money.

That's a straw man argument because in today's regulatory environment, it would be impossible for any private organization or individual to plan and build such a line.


User currently offlineMaverickM11 From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 17829 posts, RR: 46
Reply 13, posted (5 years 2 months 4 weeks 13 hours ago) and read 6657 times:



Quoting DocLightning (Reply 14):
That's a straw man argument because in today's regulatory environment, it would be impossible for any private organization or individual to plan and build such a line.

Not really, it's more a symptom of all the problems with HSR.



E pur si muove -Galileo
User currently offlineJoost From Netherlands, joined Apr 2005, 3188 posts, RR: 4
Reply 14, posted (5 years 2 months 4 weeks 12 hours ago) and read 6522 times:



Quoting DocLightning (Reply 11):
So here's the challenge: Find an airline exec who SUPPORTS HSR. Go ahead. Try to find one.

Go look in Paris & Amsterdam for AF-KL executives. KLM actually owns 10% of NS HiSpeed, the operator of high-speed services on the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp-Brussels-Paris line. At AF & KL, HSR is considered to be a very effective feeder service into their hubs at CDG and AMS and it reduces the need to use valuable slots for short-haul services (CDG-BRU is already axed and I don't expect AMS-BRU to be around for much longer once the HSR is fully operational).

Quoting Burkhard (Reply 9):
I can give the numbers for the German ICE2. It is powered by 2x9600KW, runs 280km/h and has 800 seats.

Ehm, are you sure here? Isn't it 2x4800kW for ~800 seats? AFAIK, the ICE2 power cars have 4800kW each, and each "train" has 1 power car and 1 cab car, and seats 360-400 people. As they typically operate 2 trains together, this is 2x4800 kW for 800 seats.

Besides that, I assume the train isn't running at max power all the time.

On the other hand, what are the typical load factors of ICEs? I'm sure they're far higher than those of (off-peak) local trains, but do you have numbers?


User currently offlineOlle From Sweden, joined Feb 2007, 315 posts, RR: 0
Reply 15, posted (5 years 2 months 4 weeks 9 hours ago) and read 6275 times:

In sweden all trains uses water and wind energy so it should be 0%  Wink


In a few years Stockholm - Malmö (kopenhagen) and Stockholm - Gothenburg will be dead as market...


User currently offlineArniePie From Belgium, joined Aug 2005, 1265 posts, RR: 1
Reply 16, posted (5 years 2 months 4 weeks 7 hours ago) and read 6316 times:

There was a rather lengthy but interesting debate not too long ago comparing airtravel and HSR travel, I suck at searching Anet but the thread must still be around somewhere.

All in all HSR has a lot going for it but economically speaking it can not compete without sustained and substantial government funding (usually directly redirected funding from roadtraffic taxes), thats just the harsh reality.



[edit post]
User currently offlineR2rho From Germany, joined Feb 2007, 2776 posts, RR: 1
Reply 17, posted (5 years 2 months 4 weeks 7 hours ago) and read 6246 times:

As said, you have to view this in the Norwegian perspective. Indeed, given the topography of the country, HSR would be a crazy idea, and flying seems to be the best way to link medium to small remote cities separated by a topography that is every civil engineer's nightmare.

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 11):
So here's the challenge: Find an airline exec who SUPPORTS HSR. Go ahead. Try to find one.

AF-KL for instance. They have already announced to start their own HSR service as soon as long-distance train transport is liberalized in France.

Quoting Joost (Reply 19):
On the other hand, what are the typical load factors of ICEs?

I don't know for sure, but I remember hearing something about 70% loads on TGVs. From my travel experience in France, the number seems to be a reasonable estimate.


User currently offlineGlacote From France, joined Jun 2005, 409 posts, RR: 2
Reply 18, posted (5 years 2 months 4 weeks 6 hours ago) and read 5705 times:

The comparison against TGV is absurd. There is just no way - especially on short haul.

You have to lift your aircraft; that is a hell lot of energy that is just wasted when you eventually come down. There is just no way you can compensate for that.

Besides TGV are pretty efficient. Normal "braking" actually works by regenerating electricity that is sent back for other TGV which are accelerating; unless you brake hard (emergency) of course. And that is 30 years old tech.

And when you double the speed the aerodynamical cost is multiplied by 8. An aircraft typically flies 2.5 times faster. And on the TGV you pay 100% aero cost on the first wagon, then 33% on the second, 11% the third, negligible the rest. So you amortize that cost on 500-1,000 passengers. A short-haul aircrafts lifts 150 pax.

So no, even if the TGV were only powered by coal-produced electricity, there is no way you can even begin to think about dreaming to compare the ecological cost.

Just the CEO of a challenger airline in an oil-rich country...


User currently offlineBorism From Estonia, joined Oct 2006, 431 posts, RR: 0
Reply 19, posted (5 years 2 months 3 weeks 6 days 18 hours ago) and read 3786 times:

This thread is slightly hijacked by proponents and opposers of HSR. Actually Bjørn Kjos has some other interesting points there as well.

But on the topic of HSR. I wonder where would DY be without HSR? After all, Gardermoen is some 50km from Oslo city center and Flytoget trains transport third of OSL pax (not that many, yes) on the only HSR line in Norway.

Of course building HSR network covering whole of Norway is not viable due topology and population densities. But linking Oslo to European HSR network is an absolute must in my opinion.

On the topic of inflight WiFi and phone access. Year end is quite near. Does he mean that some planes/routes will get that service, or that whole fleet will have it by the end of 2009?


User currently offlineKiwiRob From New Zealand, joined Jun 2005, 7848 posts, RR: 5
Reply 20, posted (5 years 2 months 3 weeks 6 days 10 hours ago) and read 3486 times:

Kjos is correct, Norway has a small population spread out over quite long distances, the main population centres in Norway aren't all that large and I very much doubt that HSR would ever have the frequency to compete with air travel, unless it was heavily subsidised.

The only routes worth pursuing in Norway would be Oslo Stockholm and Oslo Copenhagen via Göteborg, even these routes would be long and would need heavy subsidies to compete with air travel.

As for actually building HSR in Norway the DB study done recently said it would be fairly cheap since it would all be built on bedrock and could be routed through areas with little of no populations so not need to purchase land.

Norway is wealthy enough to afford to build HSR and subsidise its operation but I believe the funds would be far better spent upgrading the road network which is by no small margin the worst in Europe.


User currently offlineSA7700 From South Africa, joined Dec 2003, 3431 posts, RR: 26
Reply 21, posted (5 years 2 months 3 weeks 5 days 8 hours ago) and read 2487 times:
AIRLINERS.NET CREW
HEAD MODERATOR

Dear Members

There has been extensive housekeeping done in this thread, mainly due to off-topic comments. Kindly note that this particular thread addresses the airline DY and HSR in Europe - not HSR in the USA. Kindly stick to the topic at hand.

Thank you for your cooperation.


Rgds,

SA7700



When you are doing stuff that nobody has done before, there is no manual – Kevin McCloud (Grand Designs)
User currently offlinePPVRA From Brazil, joined Nov 2004, 8978 posts, RR: 39
Reply 22, posted (5 years 2 months 3 weeks 5 days 5 hours ago) and read 2366 times:



Quoting OyKIE (Reply 3):

Are your sure if you add infrastructure, railways and all the forrest that will need to be taken away?

That's what this study claims:

http://www.sustainable-transportation.com/

Click in one of the several "ERL publication" links under the News section for the study.

[Edited 2009-10-03 16:29:06]


"If goods do not cross borders, soldiers will" - Frederic Bastiat
User currently offlineKiwiRob From New Zealand, joined Jun 2005, 7848 posts, RR: 5
Reply 23, posted (5 years 2 months 3 weeks 4 days 22 hours ago) and read 2281 times:

There is a really good thread on skyscrapercity about HSR in Norway, it's shows all the possible routes and also lionks to the various studies done over the years including the latest by DB.

http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=885414&highlight=


User currently offlineR2rho From Germany, joined Feb 2007, 2776 posts, RR: 1
Reply 24, posted (5 years 2 months 3 weeks 4 days 16 hours ago) and read 2179 times:

The problem with this thread from the beginning was that the title should read "HSR in Norway is Madness" to prevent it from drifting off-topic as it has.

As said, the infrastructure costs would be immense, given Norway's topography. In other EU countries, infrastructure has been subsidized, but HSR operation is profitable. However, I actually tend to believe that in Norway, event its operation would have to be subsidized, as it simply lacks the population concentration to support regular (and profitable) HSR service. It's just too little population spread out over too much land. You're not linking large cities like Paris and Marseille across flat land, you're linking medium-sized cities like Oslo and Bergen across rugged and harsh terrain.


25 MSNDC9 : 10% ownership is enough to pay for a guaranteed seats on trains. The citizens are still on the hook for money draining the infrastructure.
26 Theginge : I think you will find there are. If HSR is built as part of an integrated transport system and with airports as part of that then there will be suppo
27 TransIsland : Is that when the 787 is being towed from one hangar to another - empty?
28 XaraB : Another less desirable effect of committing to HSR instead of air travel, is that you'll lose competition. The economic feasibility of a HSR network i
29 KiwiRob : You are right, to few people spread over to vast a distance, as I said before the only viable routes would be Oslo Stockholm or Oslo Copenhagen via Go
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