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CX Close To 350 Order?  
User currently offlineKaitak From Ireland, joined Aug 1999, 12562 posts, RR: 35
Posted (5 years 1 month 1 week 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 9323 times:

A rumour on PPRUNE ("Fragrant Harbour" section) suggests that CX may be close to an order for A350s within the v.near future; the original poster on the thread suggested it might be 380s, but another poster (all of them CX pilots) suggested it may be 350s; thin pickings to go on I know, but we may know sooner rather than later.

It does ring true, however; the 350 would work very well as a 330/772 replacement and ultimately (in the shape of the 350-1000) as a 77W replacement.

14 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 31239 posts, RR: 85
Reply 1, posted (5 years 1 month 1 week 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 9232 times:
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An A350-1000XWB would make an excellent replacement for the A330-300, 777-200 and 777-300. It would offer better capacity, efficiency and performance than the first two, allowing CX to increase capacity around Asia and down to Australia and the Indian sub-continent and it would offer better efficiency and performance than the 777-300 for short-haul high-density missions around Asia.

I don't see it as a 77W replacement anytime soon, as CX is still in the process of taking new frames. Also, I think CX would want to be sure the A350-1000XWB can perform the missions in terms of payload and range that they are using the 77W for, and having the model in their fleet for less-challenging regional missions would allow them to gather direct and relevant data for that determination.

[Edited 2009-10-16 14:02:07]

User currently offlineZvezda From Lithuania, joined Aug 2004, 10511 posts, RR: 64
Reply 2, posted (5 years 1 month 1 week 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 9175 times:

I think Stitch nailed it. The A350-1000 would be a great choice for CX, but it might not replace the 777-300ER on every route flown by the latter. Some certainly, but probably not all. How many 777-300ER routes will depend on actual relative performance in service.

User currently offlineCoolfish1103 From United States of America, joined Feb 2008, 404 posts, RR: 1
Reply 3, posted (5 years 1 month 1 week 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 9161 times:

It may be a good replacement for the older fleets, but I see no reason why CX would want to replace their 77W given the cabin refurbishment not done long ago.

User currently offlineZvezda From Lithuania, joined Aug 2004, 10511 posts, RR: 64
Reply 4, posted (5 years 1 month 1 week 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 9077 times:



Quoting Coolfish1103 (Reply 3):
I see no reason why CX would want to replace their 77W given the cabin refurbishment not done long ago.

It's not the age of the fleet that matters so much as the relative difference in operating economics and the capital difference. For example, SQ replaced brand-new (some hadn't even been delivered yet) A340-300s with 777-200ERs because the operating economics of the latter were sufficient to justify the capital expenditure. The same may be true for A350-1000s replacing fairly new 777-300ERs.


User currently offlineScipio From Belgium, joined Oct 2007, 903 posts, RR: 10
Reply 5, posted (5 years 1 month 1 week 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 8887 times:



Quoting Zvezda (Reply 4):
SQ replaced brand-new (some hadn't even been delivered yet) A340-300s with 777-200ERs because the operating economics of the latter were sufficient to justify the capital expenditure.

And because Boeing offered them a deal they could not refuse  Smile

Essentially, Boeing made sure that the extra capital cost was very limited, by purchasing the A340s from SQ at a juicy price as part of the deal.


User currently offlinePVG From Hong Kong, joined Dec 2004, 727 posts, RR: 2
Reply 6, posted (5 years 1 month 1 week 1 day ago) and read 7675 times:

Seeing how conservative this company seems to be in their decision making; why would they be committing to the 350 now rather than waiting to see what the 787 does in terms of performance and then looking at a 787/777NG option for their future needs? This doesn't seem to be their MO. They don't seem to short of capacity, why would they rush to make this move?

User currently offlineFrancoflier From France, joined Oct 2001, 3808 posts, RR: 11
Reply 7, posted (5 years 1 month 1 week 1 day ago) and read 7651 times:



Quoting Coolfish1103 (Reply 3):
but I see no reason why CX would want to replace their 77W given the cabin refurbishment not done long ago.

The 77W are brand new, they never had their cabin refurbished as the oldest one was delivered only about a year ago. There are no plans to replace those.

The A350 would replace the 777 classic (-200 & -300) and the older A330 on regional routes as well as the A340 on the 'thin' long haul routes.

A mix of A350-900/-1000 could be a possibility.

Seeing how the 787 is too small for CX's use, the fact that they will order the A350 is not really an if, but a when.
But the order will probably not be placed this year though.

Rumors about new plane purchases pop up every so often on PPrune, and they might be posted by airline employees, but those rumors are no better than those you'll read on A.net or anywhere else...



Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit posting...
User currently offlineZvezda From Lithuania, joined Aug 2004, 10511 posts, RR: 64
Reply 8, posted (5 years 1 month 1 week 19 hours ago) and read 6752 times:



Quoting PVG (Reply 6):
Seeing how conservative this company seems to be in their decision making; why would they be committing to the 350 now rather than waiting to see what the 787 does in terms of performance and then looking at a 787/777NG option for their future needs? This doesn't seem to be their MO. They don't seem to short of capacity, why would they rush to make this move?

The A350 is a better fit to CX's needs than the 787 due to projected payload/range capability and projected CASM. A hypothetical warmed-over 777 or all-new Y3 might perhaps be even better yet, but eventually one must order something. One cannot always wait for a hypothetical better future aircraft that the manufacturer has not committed to building. Now is a good time to place an order because Airbus and Boeing are hungry for orders and willing to make deals that they would not have made a year or two or four ago. A year from now might be an even better time to place an order because the order backlogs are likely to be smaller. Eventually, the bust will end and there will be another order boom. The best time to get a great deal is just as the order boom is starting, before it's clear that it's starting. CX have enough older, less economical aircraft that an A350 order in 2010 would not surprise me.


User currently offlineKaitak From Ireland, joined Aug 1999, 12562 posts, RR: 35
Reply 9, posted (5 years 1 month 1 week 15 hours ago) and read 5510 times:

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 8):
The A350 is a better fit to CX's needs than the 787 due to projected payload/range capability and projected CASM


And given the current difficulties with the 787, there's no telling when the 787-10 would be launched and/or delivered (one might say the same about delivery for the 788!); the 787-8 is clearly too small; the 789 is only about the same size (ball-park) as the 330, so the 787 really doesn't offer much at all in the way of growth, while the 359/10 (don't see them going for the 358) does.



On the 787 issue, the last poster on this topic on PPRUNE had this to say (tongue firmly planted in cheek, I must assume!!!):

"787 'Dreamliner' (same dream/same team!) was considered but unfortunately it was determined that in 36 degree temperatures and humidity above 76% fuselage panels would fall off.

Additionally the rough nature of the runway surface of 07L in HKG would have caused serious cracking at the wing root leading to structural failure within 6 months."
 Wink




[Edited 2009-10-17 04:15:02 by kaitak]

[Edited 2009-10-17 04:20:53 by kaitak]

User currently offlineBrons2 From United States of America, joined Sep 2001, 3017 posts, RR: 4
Reply 10, posted (5 years 1 month 1 week 14 hours ago) and read 5344 times:

Ah but only the A350 uses fuselage panels!  Wink


Firings, if well done, are good for employee morale.
User currently offlineCX flyboy From Hong Kong, joined Dec 1999, 6625 posts, RR: 55
Reply 11, posted (5 years 1 month 1 week 13 hours ago) and read 4880 times:



Quoting Francoflier (Reply 7):
The 77W are brand new, they never had their cabin refurbished as the oldest one was delivered only about a year ago. There are no plans to replace those.

Actually there is a new business class coming and at which point the 77Ws in the current cabin will be reconfigured. They are also looking at new cabin configurations to better tailor the new economic operating environment, although this is changing all the time so we shall have to see where this goes.


User currently offlineFrancoflier From France, joined Oct 2001, 3808 posts, RR: 11
Reply 12, posted (5 years 1 month 1 week 12 hours ago) and read 4793 times:



Quoting CX flyboy (Reply 11):
Actually there is a new business class coming and at which point the 77Ws

Are they dumping the Olympus already? Or just upgrading it due to the constant criticism?
I heard nothing about that on the -400, but then it's a dying fleet...



Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit posting...
User currently offlineCloudyapple From Hong Kong, joined Jul 2005, 2454 posts, RR: 10
Reply 13, posted (5 years 1 month 1 week 11 hours ago) and read 4437 times:



Quoting CX flyboy (Reply 11):
at which point the 77Ws in the current cabin will be reconfigured.

I have heard otherwise that the current current aircraft will keep their biz seats while new deliveries will come with the new seats.

Talks of a Y+ product certainly throws a spanner in the works.



A310/A319/20/21/A332/3/A343/6/A388/B732/5/7/8/B742/S/4/B752/B763/B772/3/W/E145/J41/MD11/83/90
User currently offlinePVG From Hong Kong, joined Dec 2004, 727 posts, RR: 2
Reply 14, posted (5 years 1 month 1 week 4 hours ago) and read 2927 times:



Quoting Zvezda (Reply 8):
The A350 is a better fit to CX's needs than the 787 due to projected payload/range capability and projected CASM. A hypothetical warmed-over 777 or all-new Y3 might perhaps be even better yet, but eventually one must order something. One cannot always wait for a hypothetical better future aircraft that the manufacturer has not committed to building. Now is a good time to place an order because Airbus and Boeing are hungry for orders and willing to make deals that they would not have made a year or two or four ago. A year from now might be an even better time to place an order because the order backlogs are likely to be smaller. Eventually, the bust will end and there will be another order boom. The best time to get a great deal is just as the order boom is starting, before it's clear that it's starting. CX have enough older, less economical aircraft that an A350 order in 2010 would not surprise me.

I understand. But, it doesn't seem to be their way to make a hasty decision. The only thing I can see is that they've been presented with the deal of the century with substantial penalties and cancellation clauses. I don't undersatnd that either with Airbus claiming 500 orders 3-5 years prior to the first plane ever seeing the light of day!? Why would they be offering deals now , especially with the Euro going against them? Something doesn't make sense to me.


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