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Copenhagen : CO2 Cuts For Aviation  
User currently offlineAither From South Korea, joined exactly 10 years ago today! , 859 posts, RR: 0
Posted (5 years 3 days 7 hours ago) and read 1675 times:

From the Wall Street Journal http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20091021-711760.html
"Global emissions from ships should be cut by 20% by 2020 from 2005 levels, while CO2 emissions in aviation should be reduced by 10% in the same time frame, Andreas Carlgren, Sweden's Environment Minister, said after meeting with peers in Luxembourg. "

A quick & dirty calculation :

-Today's aviation CO2 emissions are already basically between 10-15% above 2005 levels.
-By 2020, they should be reduced by 10% compared to 2005 levels.
-Improvements in aircraft efficiency and fleet renewable means only 1-2% improvements in fuel burn for the world fleet every year.

Conclusion : Between today and the year 2020, mnisters are just proposing no traffic growth for air travel.

As a reminder, air travel accounts for only 2% of only man made CO2 emissions. Air travel, unlike many other sectors (cars, housing, etc.) has made considerable efforts to reduce fuel burn because it was always a major costs for airline operations.

Air travel is 2% of CO2 emissions but seems to get 30% of the blame...

Any thoughts ?


Never trust the obvious
4 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently offlineWindy95 From United States of America, joined Dec 2008, 2739 posts, RR: 8
Reply 1, posted (5 years 3 days 2 hours ago) and read 1594 times:



Quoting Aither (Thread starter):
As a reminder, air travel accounts for only 2% of only man made CO2 emissions. Air travel, unlike many other sectors (cars, housing, etc.) has made considerable efforts to reduce fuel burn because it was always a major costs for airline operations.

Air travel is 2% of CO2 emissions but seems to get 30% of the blame...

Any thoughts ?

And man contibutes around 5% of the carbon in the air which is only .0375 of the atmosphere. So they are worried about cutting what is 2% of the 5% of .0375? The percentage of jobs this will kill will be far greater that the percentage of CO2 that is will stop from being released. And it will not stop the planet from warming or cooling one bit.



OMG-Obama Must Go
User currently offlineTharanga From United States of America, joined Apr 2009, 1865 posts, RR: 1
Reply 2, posted (5 years 3 days 1 hour ago) and read 1548 times:



Quoting Aither (Thread starter):
-Improvements in aircraft efficiency and fleet renewable means only 1-2% improvements in fuel burn for the world fleet every year.

Hmm. There are various ways to reduce fuel usage (new planes, more direct routes allowed by nextgen ATC, lowering airspeed, lowering take-off weight, ground towing, rail replacing short-haul flights), but I've not seen a careful projection of how much reduction we can expect from all these, how quickly. Surely somebody has done it; if anybody is aware, some links would help.

Good point that fleet renewal does not happen overnight; even if the 787 entered into service tomorrow, it'd take a while to make any difference.

Quoting Aither (Thread starter):
Air travel is 2% of CO2 emissions but seems to get 30% of the blame...

I disagree; I think you (and others here) are more sensitive to discussion of aviation's impact simply because you pay attention to aviation. Perhaps in the UK, aviation's impact has a higher profile due to the ongoing controversy about LHR runway expansion; in the US I think it (aviation CO2) doesn't get much attention.

Quoting Aither (Thread starter):
Any thoughts ?

Remember that the IATA has promised pretty ambitious targets for itself, but those plans will require buying offsets in other areas on the 2020 timeframe. Offsets won't count to the goals of the minister quoted above, but I think they should. Aviation should do its share, but finding enough cuts in aviation would be more economically damaging than paying for cuts elsewhere. So aviation can do its part by paying for cuts elsewhere. Seems fine to me.


User currently offlineTharanga From United States of America, joined Apr 2009, 1865 posts, RR: 1
Reply 3, posted (5 years 3 days 1 hour ago) and read 1529 times:

This is off the topic of this forum, so mods do as you will, but:

Quoting Windy95 (Reply 1):
And man contibutes around 5% of the carbon in the air

Not sure how you reach that figure. The current concentration in the air is 385 ppm; various human activities are the major reason for its rise from around 280 ppm.

You could, however, say that man's contribution to all the carbon in the entire active cycle (air, ocean, trees, soil, etc) is a low percentage. Probably rather less than 5%; I'd have to check the numbers.

Quoting Windy95 (Reply 1):
carbon in the air which is only .0375 of the atmosphere.

385 ppm is the current figure; and it looks like you lost a % sign. It is 0.0385%, or 0.000385 as a fraction.

But your approach is flawed - you are emotionally thinking that a minor component can have little effect. But if a chemical is strong enough at whatever it does, it doesn't take much of it to have a great effect.


User currently offlineBennett123 From United Kingdom, joined Aug 2004, 7694 posts, RR: 3
Reply 4, posted (5 years 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 1462 times:

I wonder how many B747 will be replaced by A380/B747-8, and how many A300/A330/A340B757/B767 will be replaced by A350/B787 by 2020.

This may not be as big a problem as others suggest.


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