Sponsor Message:
Civil Aviation Forum
My Starred Topics | Profile | New Topic | Forum Index | Help | Search 
Effect Of Delta/US LGA/DCA Deal On Shuttle  
User currently offlineRJpieces From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Posted (4 years 9 months 3 days 16 hours ago) and read 5822 times:

If the Delta/US deal goes through, what changes can we expect to see on the Shuttle?

US Airways just announced that the BOS-LGA leg will switch to E-190s (this is ironic since Delta downgraded LGA-DCA to Embraers, but kept LGA-BOS as MD-80s). But can reduced flying at LGA (combined with increased flying at DCA) continue to justify A-319s on DCA-LGA? Or will US eventually just sell these LGA slots?

As for Delta, if they consolidate flying into one terminal complex at LGA and have increased service to a variety of destinations, will this justify bringing the Delta Shuttle back to a mainline aircraft? If so, which aircraft is most appropriate right now?

27 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineScottB From United States of America, joined Jul 2000, 6712 posts, RR: 32
Reply 1, posted (4 years 9 months 3 days 16 hours ago) and read 5807 times:



Quoting RJpieces (Thread starter):
US Airways just announced that the BOS-LGA leg will switch to E-190s (this is ironic since Delta downgraded LGA-DCA to Embraers, but kept LGA-BOS as MD-80s). But can reduced flying at LGA (combined with increased flying at DCA) continue to justify A-319s on DCA-LGA? Or will US eventually just sell these LGA slots?

I suspect the lack of a focus city at either end eventually makes US Airways uncompetitive on the BOS-LGA route; long-term I'd expect them to see them further downgauge BOS-LGA to the E170/E175 or simply sell the LGA slots. DCA-LGA probably will remain (as well as DCA-BOS) with the A319 or the E190 to support the hub US wants to have at DCA.

Quoting RJpieces (Thread starter):
As for Delta, if they consolidate flying into one terminal complex at LGA and have increased service to a variety of destinations, will this justify bringing the Delta Shuttle back to a mainline aircraft? If so, which aircraft is most appropriate right now?

Probably, but perhaps with the A319 instead of the MD-88.


User currently onlineSTT757 From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 16824 posts, RR: 51
Reply 2, posted (4 years 9 months 3 days 13 hours ago) and read 5538 times:

I expect at some point the very real possibility that US Airways will sell off the LGA shuttle landing slots piece by piece to the highest bidders (WN, B6, FL etc..). The Shuttle is not the money maker it used to be, and US Airways is closing BOS and LGA as crew bases.

The US Airways Shuttle may be worth more in a slot by slot divestiture than it would be for US Airways to either sell it off whole or to continue it's current operations.



Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
User currently offlineFlighty From United States of America, joined Apr 2007, 8414 posts, RR: 3
Reply 3, posted (4 years 9 months 3 days 13 hours ago) and read 5462 times:



Quoting STT757 (Reply 2):
The US Airways Shuttle may be worth more in a slot by slot divestiture than it would be for US Airways to either sell it off whole or to continue it's current operations.

That's not quite fair. The LGA-BOS route is the only part of it that does not run to DCA. The DCA-LGA and DCA-BOS routes are the bedrock of their very solid DCA system. Why would they be in any peril...

In any event, the E-190 downgrade is not so dramatic (still mainline).... I would tend to believe everything is fine on the US Shuttle.


User currently offlinePensacolaguy From United States of America, joined Sep 2004, 546 posts, RR: 1
Reply 4, posted (4 years 9 months 3 days 13 hours ago) and read 5413 times:

What is the current status of the Delta/US Slot Switch? Where can I find information on the progress?

User currently offlineKGAIflyer From United States of America, joined Jul 2008, 4241 posts, RR: 1
Reply 5, posted (4 years 9 months 2 days 19 hours ago) and read 4732 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!



Quoting ScottB (Reply 1):
I suspect the lack of a focus city at either end eventually makes US Airways uncompetitive on the BOS-LGA route; long-term I'd expect them to see them further downgauge BOS-LGA to the E170/E175

I've flown the BOS-LGA USAir shuttle a dozen times at *non-peak hours* and a CR-7 or E70 could easily handle the loads with seats left over -- the 319s travel 3/4 empty.

Those 319s could be better utilized at another location.  yes 


User currently offlineOuboy79 From United States of America, joined Nov 2001, 4567 posts, RR: 23
Reply 6, posted (4 years 9 months 2 days 18 hours ago) and read 4645 times:

I think it would be interesting to see if there is a first right of refusal option for Delta on anymore LGA slots from US. I could definitely see LGA-BOS being axed eventually, not sure if US would unload all those slots at LGA or not. I think in all these talks about the future of US shuttle, the talk that the operation would be sold as a whole seem a bit naive. If any DCA routes get downsized, I would expect the slots just get moved to other markets - unless there is some special circumstance for these I'm not aware of. However, these are quite a few slots and US would not want to let such an mass invasion into their DCA hub.

User currently offlineScottB From United States of America, joined Jul 2000, 6712 posts, RR: 32
Reply 7, posted (4 years 9 months 2 days 16 hours ago) and read 4147 times:

After some reflection, I've come to the conclusion that US is likely only maintaining the LGA-BOS leg of the Shuttle in order to facilitate the approval of the slot transaction. Even though the Shuttles have become far less profitable (if at all) for Delta and US Airways, the BOS-LGA-DCA routes are still closely scrutinized by the government in any potential deals. Interestingly, though, it does not appear that US has made an explicit commitment to maintain the LGA-BOS Shuttle flying.

Once the deal goes through and US drops the LGA focus city, it seems almost inevitable that they'd lose much of their LGA-BOS Shuttle customer base. Thus, by next fall, they'd be able to claim that the route was no longer viable and that they were shifting the assets to more profitable markets and/or selling the LGA slots. I certainly think they'd keep most/all of their existing service on DCA-BOS and DCA-LGA since these are key routes for their planned DCA hub.


User currently offlineElmothehobo From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 1536 posts, RR: 1
Reply 8, posted (4 years 9 months 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 3811 times:



Quoting ScottB (Reply 7):
Once the deal goes through and US drops the LGA focus city, it seems almost inevitable that they'd lose much of their LGA-BOS Shuttle customer base

While they are losing the LaGuardia hub, they gain a Newark hub thanks to Continental. I'd imagine that many of these New York based fliers will switch their Shuttle flying to USAirways.


User currently offlineContrails From United States of America, joined Oct 2000, 1833 posts, RR: 0
Reply 9, posted (4 years 9 months 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 3791 times:

Imo, "The Shuttle", ceased to exist several years ago when it became nothing more than another scheduled flight. The fact that it's flown mostly with RJs speaks volumes.

I wish I could have flown it when Eastern had it, when it was really something special. When they ran it there were backup planes ready, in case there were more pax than seats. US dropped that in a hurry. Now, if I understand correctly, it will be using the Marine Terminal at LGA, instead of the US terminal, which imo is much nicer.

Not that it matters too much to me, as I gave up on LGA a long time ago. When I have to go to NYC I take the train.



Flying Colors Forever!
User currently offlineEnilria From Canada, joined Feb 2008, 7046 posts, RR: 13
Reply 10, posted (4 years 9 months 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 3737 times:



Quoting RJpieces (Thread starter):
If the Delta/US deal goes through, what changes can we expect to see on the Shuttle?

It will be sold. It has been for sale for 3 years.

Quoting ScottB (Reply 1):
or simply sell the LGA slots.

Same result...

Quoting ScottB (Reply 7):
After some reflection, I've come to the conclusion that US is likely only maintaining the LGA-BOS leg of the Shuttle in order to facilitate the approval of the slot transaction. Even though the Shuttles have become far less profitable (if at all) for Delta and US Airways, the BOS-LGA-DCA routes are still closely scrutinized by the government in any potential deals. Interestingly, though, it does not appear that US has made an explicit commitment to maintain the LGA-BOS Shuttle flying.

Once the deal goes through and US drops the LGA focus city, it seems almost inevitable that they'd lose much of their LGA-BOS Shuttle customer base. Thus, by next fall, they'd be able to claim that the route was no longer viable and that they were shifting the assets to more profitable markets and/or selling the LGA slots. I certainly think they'd keep most/all of their existing service on DCA-BOS and DCA-LGA since these are key routes for their planned DCA hub.

That's similar to my prognosis which I have espoused before. I believe they are going to sell the Shuttle as a whole to either WN or B6 who may take it apart for the slots or operate it as is. I think they wanted to sell it to AA or UA, but neither has the money. The reason the Shuttle sale is unannounced is that they will need to continue flying DCA-LGA 6 times or so to support the hub. After selling the Shuttle they will need to cut something else to find the slots to add back those LGA flights. Right now they are happy to have the political support from places like PNS and DSM that think they are going to get DCA service from this deal, but the reality is that US will cut those to resume DCA-LGA after selling the Shuttle. THUS, they can't sell the Shuttle until the slot transaction is first approved.

Here are the tradeoffs of selling the Shuttle whole or in part.

Whole Sale Benefits
===============
Probably 4x more money $250-350 million
Easier Regulatory Approval (The Shuttle could never be recreated from random slots, plus the Shuttle slots have extra features like extra section ability)
If B6 or WN fly only to LGA it has almost no effect on US financially (They might be even able to write a sale contract requiring them to "operate the Shuttle" which would otherwise be considered anti-competitive, but might be do-able in this special case)

Break Up Sale Benefits
=================
US retains 32 DCA slots (presuming they keep the DCA slots)
MUCH less money, probably 75% less if they don't sell the DCA slots ($64-100 million)
Greater network impact on US if LGA slots are sold to WN/B6 without the limitation of flying the Shuttle routes


User currently offlineFlyPNS1 From United States of America, joined Nov 1999, 6584 posts, RR: 24
Reply 11, posted (4 years 9 months 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 3706 times:



Quoting Enilria (Reply 10):
I think they wanted to sell it to AA or UA, but neither has the money.

Neither would want the Shuttle as it would lose money for them just as it does for US/DL.

I think US will keep all the slots associated with the Shuttle on the DCA end. They want to build up a hub there and letting WN/B6 would undermine that effort. Also, US wants to have plenty of surplus slots for when the DCA perimeter rule is eased (eliminated??).

I agree that eventually they will dump all the slots at LGA related to the LGA-BOS shuttle.


User currently offlineRJpieces From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 12, posted (4 years 9 months 1 day 20 hours ago) and read 3617 times:



Quoting Enilria (Reply 10):

That's similar to my prognosis which I have espoused before. I believe they are going to sell the Shuttle as a whole to either WN or B6 who may take it apart for the slots or operate it as is.



Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 11):
Neither would want the Shuttle as it would lose money for them just as it does for US/DL.

I think either could make money with the slots. I'm sure B6 would love to operate a DCA-JFK Shuttle on E-190s between O&D and connecting passengers.

Quoting Contrails (Reply 9):
Imo, "The Shuttle", ceased to exist several years ago when it became nothing more than another scheduled flight. The fact that it's flown mostly with RJs speaks volumes.

I wish I could have flown it when Eastern had it, when it was really something special. When they ran it there were backup planes ready, in case there were more pax than seats. US dropped that in a hurry.

That's not quite true. US LGA-BOS/DCA, and DCA-BOS are alll still A-319s (at least for now). DL LGA-DCA is now Shuttle America, but LGA-BOS is still MD-88s. For me, the "Shuttle" ceased to exist once Delta got rid of the dedicated one-cabin fleet last year....Until then, it was still something special!


User currently offlineMasseyBrown From United States of America, joined Dec 2002, 5372 posts, RR: 7
Reply 13, posted (4 years 9 months 1 day 20 hours ago) and read 3591 times:



Quoting Contrails (Reply 9):
I gave up on LGA a long time ago. When I have to go to NYC I take the train.

Me too. It's worth noting in this discussion that because of faster Amtrak schedules the train is more competitive on Wash-NYC than Boston-NYC.

Quoting Enilria (Reply 10):
It will be sold. It has been for sale for 3 years.

Now that nobody wants it. Ten years ago either CO or AA won't have given almost anything for one of the shuttles. US could end up using the slots for other routes rather than sell them.



I love long German words like 'Freundschaftsbezeigungen'.
User currently offlineFlighty From United States of America, joined Apr 2007, 8414 posts, RR: 3
Reply 14, posted (4 years 9 months 1 day 19 hours ago) and read 3536 times:



Quoting ScottB (Reply 7):
Once the deal goes through and US drops the LGA focus city, it seems almost inevitable that they'd lose much of their LGA-BOS Shuttle customer base. Thus, by next fall, they'd be able to claim that the route was no longer viable and that they were shifting the assets to more profitable markets and/or selling the LGA slots. I certainly think they'd keep most/all of their existing service on DCA-BOS and DCA-LGA since these are key routes for their planned DCA hub.

Perhaps, but they need not ask the government for guidance on where they fly from LGA. If they were to cut say, half the LGA-BOS flights (which I doubt -- it ought to be stronger than that), they don't need to ask the government about it.

I think they are done selling LGA slots. If they can't make a Shuttle work, neither can WN or B6. The net value of it to all players is about equal.

Quoting KGAIflyer (Reply 5):
Those 319s could be better utilized at another location.

Yes, that is very true. An A319 is a long range aircraft, not really necessary on 200-mile runs. It was a prestige play.

Quoting Ouboy79 (Reply 6):
I could definitely see LGA-BOS being axed eventually,

Really? Thousands of passengers per day fly the route. I think they will try a downgrade and see what happens. In any case, LGA-BOS is a pretty major market.


User currently offlineFlyPNS1 From United States of America, joined Nov 1999, 6584 posts, RR: 24
Reply 15, posted (4 years 9 months 1 day 19 hours ago) and read 3502 times:



Quoting RJpieces (Reply 12):
I think either could make money with the slots.

I'm not so sure. UA has such a small presence in LGA and would likely struggle doing any kind of P2P flights. AA has been in and out of many secondary markets from LGA and has a shown willingness to get rid of LGA slots (if they weren't given to anyone else). LGA isn't quite the moneymaker some believe it to be. Many of the flights are kept alive solely because legacy carriers would rather lose money flying regional flights, then let those slots slip into the hands of LCC's.


User currently offlineRJpieces From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 16, posted (4 years 9 months 1 day 19 hours ago) and read 3467 times:



Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 15):
I'm not so sure.

I was referring to WN and B6.


User currently offlineEnilria From Canada, joined Feb 2008, 7046 posts, RR: 13
Reply 17, posted (4 years 9 months 1 day 18 hours ago) and read 3408 times:



Quoting MasseyBrown (Reply 13):
Now that nobody wants it.



Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 11):
Neither would want the Shuttle as it would lose money for them just as it does for US/DL.

I wholly disagree. Everybody wants the Shuttle. Few are willing to pay what US wants for it. That is why it hasn't been sold yet. B6 or WN will step up and buy it.

BTW, the Shuttle has always lost money. It's never been about profitability. It was always about brand and frequent flyer lock-in. If you get a guy who flies DCA-LGA once per week in your plan then he will fly you from JFK to LAX. The converse of that is why US must sell the Shuttle. Without any other product in NYC or BOS to leverage they only have the loss and no upside. I suppose you could even argue that CO gets the benefit now that they are in Star together.

Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 11):
Also, US wants to have plenty of surplus slots for when the DCA perimeter rule is eased (eliminated??).

I really don't see the perimieter rule going away and I'm not sure US would be smart to encourage that anyway. I think they would be better off with further easing, although as the 400 lb gorilla they are unlikely to ever win another slot at DCA for anything.


User currently offlineFlyPNS1 From United States of America, joined Nov 1999, 6584 posts, RR: 24
Reply 18, posted (4 years 9 months 1 day 18 hours ago) and read 3374 times:



Quoting Enilria (Reply 17):
B6 or WN will step up and buy it.

But even if B6 or WN buy it, I doubt either will actually operate the Shuttle. They will take the slots and use them elsewhere. This once again supports the point that NOBODY really wants the Shuttle, though some carriers would certainly like to have the Shuttle slots.

Quoting Enilria (Reply 17):
BTW, the Shuttle has always lost money.

That's not true.

Quoting Enilria (Reply 17):
The converse of that is why US must sell the Shuttle. Without any other product in NYC or BOS to leverage they only have the loss and no upside.

I agree that U.S. will likely sell the slots in LGA that are tied to the Shuttle. However, I don't see them selling the DCA slots. Some will be kept so that DCA-LGA is still flown about 8x daily (to cover US's local DCA customer base) and the rest will be used for other routes.

Quoting Enilria (Reply 17):
I really don't see the perimieter rule going away and I'm not sure US would be smart to encourage that anyway.

It's slowly getting momentum in Congress. But even if the perimeter doesn't fully go away, any easing will likely benefit US. Unlike the specially added beyond-perimeter slots of before, there is no appetite to add more slots at DCA. Instead, I expect carriers will be allowed to take a limited number of existing slots and make them beyond perimeter.


User currently offlineEnilria From Canada, joined Feb 2008, 7046 posts, RR: 13
Reply 19, posted (4 years 9 months 1 day 17 hours ago) and read 3268 times:



Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 18):
But even if B6 or WN buy it, I doubt either will actually operate the Shuttle.

Perhaps, but US could require they buy the Shuttle and operate it as a Shuttle (otherwise US could take it back). That would reduce the competition effect to US of having WN or B6 at DCA. As I said above, that is almost anti-competitive, but the DOJ might allow it because it would actually preserve competition in the Shuttle market which is probably a higher priority.

Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 18):
That's not true.

When has it made money? Not since 1990. The Delta Shuttle *MIGHT* have made money at some point, but the US Shuttle hasn't. US didnt acquire "TB" until the late 1990s. The financial results of TB are public through that date, although I believe they exclude the debt burden of acquiring the Shuttle. I believe the last time it was sold it cost something like $350 million, so the debt burdern is around $30-35 million per year on top of the reported results.

Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 18):
But even if the perimeter doesn't fully go away, any easing will likely benefit US.

US Airways has never been awarded a beyond perimeter slot (HP was), so it is pure speculation that they will benefit. It could go either way. I think if the perimeter rule were dropped it would certainly hurt their PHX and LAS flights which are probably quite proftiable.


User currently offlineToltommy From United States of America, joined Dec 2003, 3288 posts, RR: 4
Reply 20, posted (4 years 9 months 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 3217 times:



Quoting Enilria (Reply 17):

I wholly disagree. Everybody wants the Shuttle. Few are willing to pay what US wants for it. That is why it hasn't been sold yet. B6 or WN will step up and buy it.

Consider what WN was willing to pay for F9, which they basically intended to shut down. If they really thought buying the shuttle made sense, cost wouldn't be an issue.

Quoting Enilria (Reply 17):
BTW, the Shuttle has always lost money.



Quoting Enilria (Reply 19):
When has it made money? Not since 1990. The Delta Shuttle *MIGHT* have made money at some point, but the US Shuttle hasn't.

You answered for yourself what I was going to share with you. DL made money on the shuttle after buying from PanAm. Probably up 'til 9/11.


User currently offlineCubsrule From United States of America, joined May 2004, 22734 posts, RR: 20
Reply 21, posted (4 years 9 months 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 3194 times:



Quoting Enilria (Reply 19):
US Airways has never been awarded a beyond perimeter slot (HP was), so it is pure speculation that they will benefit. It could go either way.

I think it's pretty safe to assume that the west coast would be overserved if the perimeter rule were dropped, at least for a while. You'd then have something of a war of attrition, and US probably isn't the best-positioned carrier for that kind of thing.



I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
User currently offlineFlyPNS1 From United States of America, joined Nov 1999, 6584 posts, RR: 24
Reply 22, posted (4 years 9 months 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 3184 times:



Quoting Enilria (Reply 19):
Perhaps, but US could require they buy the Shuttle and operate it as a Shuttle (otherwise US could take it back).

I doubt WN or B6 would agree to such a thing. They don't want to be hamstrung to serving one route...particularly a route whose long-term profitability is questionable.

Quoting Enilria (Reply 19):
US Airways has never been awarded a beyond perimeter slot (HP was), so it is pure speculation that they will benefit.

The benefit is that the easing will come in the form of using EXISTING slots for beyond perimeter service. And look who will be sitting on plent of beyond perimeter slots....US.

Quoting Enilria (Reply 19):
I think if the perimeter rule were dropped it would certainly hurt their PHX and LAS flights which are probably quite proftiable.

LAS...not really. It's mostly an O+D flight and I don't see a lot of other carriers wasting DCA slots to fly DCA-LAS.
PHX...maybe a little, but nothing substantial. But right now, US is hurt by not being able to offer some key destinations from DCA.


User currently offlineFlighty From United States of America, joined Apr 2007, 8414 posts, RR: 3
Reply 23, posted (4 years 9 months 1 day 15 hours ago) and read 3153 times:

PNS.... You do know it is illegal for other carriers to fly DCA-LAS... Right? And PHX.

User currently offlineBobnwa From United States of America, joined Dec 2000, 6449 posts, RR: 9
Reply 24, posted (4 years 9 months 1 day 15 hours ago) and read 3141 times:



Quoting MasseyBrown (Reply 13):
Ten years ago either CO or AA won't have given almost anything for one of the shuttles.

In the late 60's and early 70's, AA did operate an operation between BOS-LGA and called it the Jet Express. It competed against the Eastern shuttle and had hourly service on the hour between the two cities.

Quoting Enilria (Reply 17):
BTW, the Shuttle has always lost money. It's never been about profitability.

Totally an incorrect statement.


25 FlyPNS1 : We're discussing the scenario of what routes would be launched IF the perimeter rule were eased/eliminated. In that case, it wouldn't be illegal to f
26 RJpieces : I've always wondered why the Shuttle isn't priced better. For a variety of reasons, I think that WN or B6 could make money on it. The Shuttles usuall
27 ScottB : About 3,000-3,500 passengers per day fly LGA-BOS or vice versa as O&D traffic, but fewer than 1,000 of those are on US as O&D passengers. With most o
Top Of Page
Forum Index

This topic is archived and can not be replied to any more.

Printer friendly format

Similar topics:More similar topics...
US Deal On Travellers Information, End Of Privacy? posted Wed Jan 3 2007 13:06:33 by Ikarus2006
Effect Of Ryanair Deal On Easyjet Deal? posted Thu Jan 24 2002 17:55:49 by Artsyman
Possible Effect Of No More Perimeter Rule At LGA posted Tue Jul 28 2009 09:30:39 by RJpieces
Effect Of Possible UAL-Continental Merger On IAD posted Fri Jun 12 2009 15:48:29 by RJpieces
Effect Of Airplane Noise On FAs And Hearing Loss posted Thu Jan 1 2009 14:45:50 by Soxfan
Effect Of Charging For Baggage On Boarding Times posted Thu Dec 18 2008 11:30:27 by PanAm747
Continuing Effect Of Airline Struggles On Amtrak? posted Tue Sep 30 2008 20:15:25 by Soxfan
Effect Of Airline Foldings On Hub Cities posted Tue Aug 19 2008 17:46:16 by Soxfan
Gliders - Effect Of Carbon Fiber On Industry? posted Mon Jul 21 2008 06:49:06 by N328KF
Effect Of Airline Cuts On European High-Speed Rail posted Wed Jun 25 2008 10:09:06 by Soxfan