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New A380 Order During Dubai Air Show?  
User currently offlineN14AZ From Germany, joined Feb 2007, 2699 posts, RR: 25
Posted (4 years 9 months 3 weeks 2 days 6 hours ago) and read 23635 times:

At the end of this article: http://www.lefigaro.fr/societes/2009...du-superjumbo-reste-difficile-.php
the author is speculating about new A380 orders. Very rough translation:
- new A380s orders are rare
- the last A380 order was for two additional Korean Air units
- but Airbus doesn't exclude that there will be new A380 orders until the end of 2009.
- announcements could be done during the Dubai Air Show 2009 (starting on November 15)

Of course announcements could be done at any time. Also, my French is horrible. So was this a rather general comment or is there something going on.

Air Austral still has to confirm their MoU for two A380s. Also, the A380 will visit La Reunion before coming to the Dubai Air Show, correct me if I am wrong.
Does anybody know more?

Best regards
N14AZ

134 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineAviationbuff From India, joined Mar 2008, 1425 posts, RR: 3
Reply 1, posted (4 years 9 months 3 weeks 2 days 5 hours ago) and read 23378 times:

QR is speculated to announce an order during Dubai Air Show but aircraft type/made is not mentioned anywhere.

During the year another order is expected by TK, but I doubt about an order of A380.

Boeing and Airbus vie over big upcoming aircraft orders.
http://www.centreforaviation.com/new...an-reports-tough-nine-months/page1


User currently offlineCHRISBA777ER From UK - England, joined Mar 2001, 5964 posts, RR: 62
Reply 2, posted (4 years 9 months 3 weeks 2 days 4 hours ago) and read 23243 times:

OZ are set to announce the results of their VLA tender - if any.

Otherwise...

BA are set for another dozen or so as the second tranche, due 2014 onwards.

NH have not made their (re)decision yet, but may have to soon if they want them earlier than 2014.

IB are very likely but not until the merger is finalised.

QR I'd say are very likely eventually, although not convinced they'll sign at Dubai.

Emirates wont take any more.

Cathay are waiting for the A389.

JJ are a possibility as they'll need them by 2014 if current growth rates are anything to go by.



What do you mean you dont have any bourbon? Do you know how far it is to Houston? What kind of airline is this???
User currently offlineRobffm2 From Germany, joined Dec 2006, 1117 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (4 years 9 months 3 weeks 2 days 3 hours ago) and read 23059 times:



Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 2):
JJ are a possibility as they'll need them by 2014 if current growth rates are anything to go by.

Yes, please let JJ have some.

I'm not sure about the details, but some of the bilaterls are used to the max and with the current extension drive of JJ and Brazil's economic still getting bigger it might make sense for them.

Any chance that some deferrals of existing customers might be swapped to JJ in time for the world cup 2014 or Olympics 2016?


User currently offlineScouseflyer From United Kingdom, joined Apr 2006, 3385 posts, RR: 9
Reply 4, posted (4 years 9 months 3 weeks 2 days 3 hours ago) and read 22896 times:



Quoting Robffm2 (Reply 3):
Any chance that some deferrals of existing customers might be swapped to JJ in time for the world cup 2014 or Olympics 2016?

For some of the potential smaller orders, there's also the ILFC order for 10 which, IIRC, isn't allocated in full or part to anyone at the moment.


User currently offlineAffirmative From France, joined Jul 2009, 351 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (4 years 9 months 3 weeks 2 days 2 hours ago) and read 22716 times:

Not sure if the press conference schedule says anything but to feed any speculation both A & B has scheduled slots on the last available slots on tuesday. There are also some vacant slots that could be for either a manufacturer or an airline.

I'm really curious what Etihad is doing. While Dubai and EK are in quite dire straits and selling a lot out to Abu Dhabi investors (Emirates beverages, Dubai Metro, Emirates Airlines) Abu Dhabi still have quite a substantial lump of cash to take from. And I know they are nurturing thoughts of making Etihad bigger than EK..

My guess is that Etihad will announce their first A380 order of 5 maybe 10 plus options together with 50 or so A350 in different flavors.

Qatar will most likely announce a top up of triple-7s and maybe some A380s, they still have a lot of cash on hand.

The likelyhood of BA topping up is quite big IMHO. Another 10 or so maybe, but they might wait until they're on home soil in Farnborough..

I wouldn't be too surprised if Airbus chooses to announce the A389 in Dubai. That would of course mean a couple of orders from the likes of Cathay and Emirates and possibly Qantas..

No matter what, I'll be there all week watching closely..  Wink

cheers!



I love the smell of Jet-A1 in the morning...
User currently offlineLifelinerOne From Netherlands, joined Nov 2003, 1919 posts, RR: 7
Reply 6, posted (4 years 9 months 3 weeks 2 days 2 hours ago) and read 22532 times:



Quoting Affirmative (Reply 5):
I wouldn't be too surprised if Airbus chooses to announce the A389 in Dubai.

No way! If Airbus is to launch the A380-900 at this show, it would have already leaked out somehow and I think Airbus would use it's "own" show at Paris as stage for such an announcement.

Dubai Air Show is becoming a more important show in the circuit, but it isn't Le Bourget.

Cheers!  wave 



Only Those Who Sleep Don't Make Mistakes
User currently offlineTK787 From United States of America, joined Jan 2006, 4421 posts, RR: 12
Reply 7, posted (4 years 9 months 3 weeks 2 days 1 hour ago) and read 22435 times:



Quoting Aviationbuff (Reply 1):
During the year another order is expected by TK,

We have been waiting for this order for 3 years now. 70 single aisle and still room for another 15 twin aisle. I don't see TK ordering the 380 though. 12 x 77Ws and 10 x 333s additions in the next two years is a lot to handle for TK already.


User currently offlineAffirmative From France, joined Jul 2009, 351 posts, RR: 0
Reply 8, posted (4 years 9 months 3 weeks 2 days 1 hour ago) and read 22404 times:



Quoting LifelinerOne (Reply 6):
No way! If Airbus is to launch the A380-900 at this show, it would have already leaked out somehow and I think Airbus would use it's "own" show at Paris as stage for such an announcement.

Dubai Air Show is becoming a more important show in the circuit, but it isn't Le Bourget.

I do agree that Le Bourget is Airbus home turf. But with airlines in Europe and the US on the decline while the business is still showing growth in the Gulf area this may be the time and place to do it.

For Airbus to keep a secret these day can't be that hard with Boeing subscribing to headlines with their misfortunes on the 787 and 748 programs..

But maybe it's just me dreaming..

A-firm..



I love the smell of Jet-A1 in the morning...
User currently offlineFRNT787 From United States of America, joined Sep 2007, 1320 posts, RR: 15
Reply 9, posted (4 years 9 months 3 weeks 2 days 1 hour ago) and read 22231 times:



Quoting Affirmative (Reply 5):
My guess is that Etihad will announce their first A380 order of 5 maybe 10 plus options together with 50 or so A350 in different flavors.

??? They have already ordered both...as well as more 777s, 787s, A320s...they ordered 100 planes last year.



"We have a right to fail, because failure makes us grow" --Glenn Beck
User currently offlineScouseflyer From United Kingdom, joined Apr 2006, 3385 posts, RR: 9
Reply 10, posted (4 years 9 months 3 weeks 2 days ago) and read 22111 times:

I agree with the earlier post that it's looking like the Air Austral order for 2 will be confirmed as part of the demo visit to La Reunion on the way, as for other large orders, we could be suprised:

I seem to remember that the A380 top up for SQ at Farnborough (06?) was a total shock


User currently offlineLightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 12981 posts, RR: 100
Reply 11, posted (4 years 9 months 3 weeks 2 days ago) and read 22072 times:
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Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 2):
NH have not made their (re)decision yet, but may have to soon if they want them earlier than 2014.

I would bet Airbus would speed up the line for that order!

I wonder if there will be any A380 order at Dubai? I hope so... but that would be a tough call in this economy.



Societies that achieve a critical mass of ideas achieve self sustaining growth; others stagnate.
User currently offlineBehramjee From Canada, joined Aug 2003, 4766 posts, RR: 43
Reply 12, posted (4 years 9 months 3 weeks 2 days ago) and read 22042 times:

The only aircraft that one expects QR to order at the upcoming DXB Air Show are a bunch of Bombardier C Series aircraft...C 130s to be precise!

User currently offlineN14AZ From Germany, joined Feb 2007, 2699 posts, RR: 25
Reply 13, posted (4 years 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 23 hours ago) and read 21927 times:



Quoting Scouseflyer (Reply 10):
I agree with the earlier post that it's looking like the Air Austral order for 2 will be confirmed as part of the demo visit to La Reunion on the way

I think they already anounced which engines they have chosen so it wouldn't be bad to order the airplanes as well. Would be more convenient for the passengers ...  Wink


User currently offlineBrouAviation From Netherlands, joined Jun 2009, 985 posts, RR: 1
Reply 14, posted (4 years 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 23 hours ago) and read 21599 times:



Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 2):


NH have not made their (re)decision yet, but may have to soon if they want them earlier than 2014.

If they still have to make that decision, and Airbus wants to present it at Dubai, they have to be darn fast. The show starts in less than two weeks.

Quoting LifelinerOne (Reply 6):

Dubai Air Show is becoming a more important show in the circuit, but it isn't Le Bourget.

No, it´s even better! Only trade visitors, no normal people going for a day of spotting. No Parisian traffic jams. Better weather circumstances. And the press is much better taken care of. In Le Bourget they were so kind to build way too small press rooms, miles away from the flightline, without catering, and serviced by some grumpy French women. EBACE and Dubai Aero know how to get nice stories: the catering is top notch, the press rooms are enormous, large computer areas and workstations for laptops, relaxing lounges, and all for free!

I'd prefer Friedrichshafen, EBACE and Dubai over Le Bourget anytime.



Never ask somebody if he's a pilot. If he is, he will let you know soon enough!
User currently offlineIncitatus From Brazil, joined Feb 2005, 4007 posts, RR: 13
Reply 15, posted (4 years 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 23 hours ago) and read 21389 times:



Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 2):
JJ are a possibility as they'll need them by 2014 if current growth rates are anything to go by.

You cannot be serious.

In the next year the only growth planned in longhaul operations for TAM is a resumption of a few weekly frequencies into MIA and JFK to make those flights from GRU double daily again. After that TAM might grow longhaul very little if it chooses to take the A330s and 777s on order to retire the 767s and A340s.

The backbone of TAM's longhaul operation is the A330. The routes where the A380 might be a thought like MIA or JFK are not seeing 777-300s. Instead TAM chose to deploy 777s to LHR and FRA.

I won't say it is impossible but the chance TAM goes for A380s is tiny. They are an overly conservative company that tend to make measured moves. They got badly burned on some of their high traffic routes earlier this year so the last thing in their mind is to have a bundle of 500+ seats that can only be flown together.


User currently offlineEPA001 From Netherlands, joined Sep 2006, 4721 posts, RR: 39
Reply 16, posted (4 years 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 20831 times:
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Quoting Affirmative (Reply 5):
My guess is that Etihad will announce their first A380 order of 5 maybe 10 plus options together with 50 or so A350 in different flavors.

Qatar will most likely announce a top up of triple-7s and maybe some A380s, they still have a lot of cash on hand.

The likelyhood of BA topping up is quite big IMHO. Another 10 or so maybe, but they might wait until they're on home soil in Farnborough..

I wouldn't be too surprised if Airbus chooses to announce the A389 in Dubai. That would of course mean a couple of orders from the likes of Cathay and Emirates and possibly Qantas..

Wow, you are very optimistic in these troubled economic times. I hope you will be proven correct, but unfortunately I highly doubt it. I hope I am wrong. Big grin


User currently offlineJfk777 From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 8324 posts, RR: 7
Reply 17, posted (4 years 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 20532 times:
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Quoting Incitatus (Reply 15):
The backbone of TAM's longhaul operation is the A330. The routes where the A380 might be a thought like MIA or JFK are not seeing 777-300s. Instead TAM chose to deploy 777s to LHR and FRA.

I won't say it is impossible but the chance TAM goes for A380s is tiny. They are an overly conservative company that tend to make measured moves. They got badly burned on some of their high traffic routes earlier this year so the last thing in their mind is to have a bundle of 500+ seats that can only be flown together.

Given the nature of TAM's North-South intercontinental routes and planes having long layover at US and European airports. TAM would be better gettimg more 77W's for MIA, JFK and CDG then A380's.


User currently offlineKaitak From Ireland, joined Aug 1999, 12428 posts, RR: 37
Reply 18, posted (4 years 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 20533 times:

What about Vietnam; it was mentioned on another thread as a possibility for A380s (and not that it has any bearing whatsoever on the likelihood of an order, but A380s in VN colours ... mmm - nice!)

Quoting TK787 (Reply 7):
I don't see TK ordering the 380 though. 12 x 77Ws and 10 x 333s additions in the next two years is a lot to handle for TK already

I thought TK had specifically ruled out the A380.

Quoting LifelinerOne (Reply 6):
Dubai Air Show is becoming a more important show in the circuit, but it isn't Le Bourget.

Only because a major UAE (or Gulf region) airline orders something at every show. I expect to see QR ordering the C-series, but I also expect to see EK firming up on A330-300s.

Quoting Affirmative (Reply 5):
The likelyhood of BA topping up is quite big IMHO. Another 10 or so maybe, but they might wait until they're on home soil in Farnborough..

I don't see BA as a likely buyer at this show; it is in very strained negotiations with cabin crew and splashing the cash right now would not be a good move, from a negotiating standpoint.


User currently offlinePlaneAdmirer From United States of America, joined Jul 2009, 562 posts, RR: 0
Reply 19, posted (4 years 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 20398 times:

Does anyone know if the existing operators of A380 are consistently making money operating it? I have seen posts on here showing how A380s keep getting juggled around the route networks and perhaps I am reading too much into that (maybe I am only thinking of DXB-JFK).

It is just that the A380 requires so many passengers who want to go ever day between locations, that it seems like a major challenge to fill it and that flying it can change the economic dynamics on a particular route with the additional seats to be filled.


User currently offlineTISTPAA727 From United States of America, joined May 2007, 327 posts, RR: 2
Reply 20, posted (4 years 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 20245 times:



Quoting BrouAviation (Reply 14):
EBACE and Dubai Aero know how to get nice stories:

Just goes to show the press can be bought even for something as simple as comfort at a show. I do this for the shows I have to put together a press room for so I am just as guilty. Just saying, is all...

Quoting PlaneAdmirer (Reply 19):
Does anyone know if the existing operators of A380 are consistently making money operating it?

I don't have any specifics but would venture a guess the argument can be made in both directions. Some are, some aren't

Quoting Kaitak (Reply 18):
I expect to see QR ordering the C-series,

I hope so!!



Don't sweat the little things.
User currently offlineFWAERJ From United States of America, joined Jun 2006, 3733 posts, RR: 2
Reply 21, posted (4 years 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 19871 times:

What about UA, to replace their 744s?

UA is supposed to make their A vs. B fleet decision by the end of the year, and Leahy desperately needs a US customer for the A380. Airbus loves making orders at every airshow, DXB included (and DXB is a UA destination from IAD), so I'm wondering if Airbus could throw in ten or more A380s as part of a deal with some A321s to replace the 752s, A332s to replace the 763s, and A350XWBs to replace the thinner 744 routes and older 777s.



Primary Airport: FWA/Alternate Airport: DTW/Not employed by the FWACAA or their partners
User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 30863 posts, RR: 86
Reply 22, posted (4 years 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 19758 times:
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I agree EY will probably buy some if for no other reason than "keeping up appearances" with their neighbors.

EY did a nice air show with their A346 (A6-EHJ) at the Abu Dhabi Formula One Grand Prix yesterday so maybe we'll see an A380 do a "low and slow" over Yaz Marina in a few years.


User currently offlineLightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 12981 posts, RR: 100
Reply 23, posted (4 years 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 20 hours ago) and read 19566 times:
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Quoting Kaitak (Reply 18):
I expect to see QR ordering the C-series

I too hope to see this! QR is an interesting customer to deal with...

Quoting Kaitak (Reply 18):
I also expect to see EK firming up on A330-300s.

This I doubt. EK seems to be in cash conservation mode right now. Long term this order makes sense (now that the A333 has the range to Asia from DXB with excellent payload). Heck, Perth might be in range of the latest A333's...

Quoting FWAERJ (Reply 21):
What about UA, to replace their 744s?

That would be a shocker. Possible, but I would think we would have heard something by now. Actually, it is amazing how quiet the UA order has been... errie quiet.

Personally, I expect UA to split the order (press releases to the opposite or not, it just makes sense for them long term).

Lightsaber



Societies that achieve a critical mass of ideas achieve self sustaining growth; others stagnate.
User currently offlineBrouAviation From Netherlands, joined Jun 2009, 985 posts, RR: 1
Reply 24, posted (4 years 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 20 hours ago) and read 19395 times:



Quoting TISTPAA727 (Reply 20):

Just goes to show the press can be bought even for something as simple as comfort at a show. I do this for the shows I have to put together a press room for so I am just as guilty. Just saying, is all...

It's more that they get attention of journalists because they like to go there. If Le Bourget had their press room done better, I would still have written that this airshow was pure nonsense and exactly the same as in 2007, there was absolutely nothing new. But next time, I think of it not to go to Le Bourget at all. I go to Dubai anytime people want me to, because I like it. No matter if they show me that A380 and C17 wich I have seen multiple times before. I like to go there, so I go there and write about it, that's what I'm talking about here. Hope you understand now. It's not about positive or negative publicity, shows which are disliked by journalists do not get any publicity at all.



Never ask somebody if he's a pilot. If he is, he will let you know soon enough!
25 PlaneAdmirer : They said something to the effect that to get their order would require creative financing. Not sure how many folks are in the business of offering c
26 Cosmofly : With CIT going bankrupt, it is going to be an even bigger challenge.
27 Stitch : UA said they wanted the manufacturer to assume all the risk on the order so I can understand why Boeing and Airbus have both not exactly rushed to si
28 PVG : Actually, makes sense to me. Didn't the guy at CX say something similar recently? I think that he mentioned that the suppliers seem to make a lot mor
29 Stitch : Most Boeing and Airbus sales contracts do not allow customers to sell undelivered aircraft to other airlines. And considering Airbus is playing hardb
30 AirNz : Why is that exactly?
31 HNL-Jack : Doubt we'll hear anything this month, although UA was quoted last week that they expect to announce an "order or no order" by end of year.
32 Thenoflyzone : Well, with 80 A350 orders and 30 B787s (+30 options), they sure as hell aren't going to order any more. My guess would be the CSeries as well. Thenof
33 PVG : I see. Why would an airline agree to that? Why would a company committing huge amounts of money enter into such an inflexible agreement? It doesn't s
34 Gemuser : WHY? QF operate ALL their A380 routes with 6 to 18 hour stop overs at the far end, so why would TAM be any different? Aircraft utilization IS importa
35 FWAERJ : To be a sales success, you need a US carrier operating the plane. A big (although not the only) reason the A340 lost out to the 777 was that the A340
36 Gemuser : Why do you ned a US carrier to be a sales success? Gemuser
37 Asiaflyer : Not at all, but any additional plane sold is good, being it sold to a US carrier or not. You make it sound like the U.S. carriers are setting the sta
38 VirginFlyer : I'd tend to disagree with that analysis - I'd suggest the A340's relative lack of market success against the 777 is what led to it not garnering US s
39 Cpd : The UA or USA based carrier order for A380 is an important psychological one, because it means that a prestige product like the A380 has broken into t
40 FWAERJ : Bingo. And even more importantly for Leahy and Co., it's another nail in the coffin for the struggling 747-8I program.
41 Cpd : I think it's fairly clear now, they've carved out their niches in the market. A380 for passengers, 747-8F for freight. There might be a few small exc
42 Sparkingwave : There's neither a nail or coffin yet to be prepared for the 747-8i program. But at 160+ orders, the A380 is nowhere near its sales targets. This prog
43 LipeGIG : In my view the chance is zero. World Cup will bring a lot of additional demand, but only two airports will be able to handle the A380 and i can't see
44 N14AZ : You are comparing two different time periods. In case of the 747 you are refering to almost 40 years after EIS and in case of the A380s you are refer
45 Slz396 : That must be why the 757, which was extremely popular in the US, didn't really catch on elsewhere....
46 PlaneHunter : And why exactly? Can you please elaborate? Only 66 out of 1008 orders for the A330 have been placed by US carriers. Interesting, isn't it? And the re
47 Frigatebird : Interesting! That's putting it mildly... I think most suppliers are looking where the emergency exit is when Mr. Al-Baker enters their office Last th
48 UALWN : I had a good laugh on that one. I'll use this argument every time somebody here claims the 77W is a spectacular sales success: "No, it ain't, no US c
49 Slz396 : Much of the A340 bashing comes down to people focussing only on the 77W vs A346 case, and happily forgetting the A343 wasn't beaten by the 772 at all
50 PlaneHunter : That's an odd way of interpreting the sales figures of direct competitors (in terms of capacity, range and payload). Only 219 A343s have been ordered
51 Slz396 : For a narrow body in production untill a couple of years ago? Hardly... Besides, I'd refrain from using total sales numbers as a method to illustrate
52 Slz396 : Mind you, as you've said yourself: As such, it would be fairer to compare the A343 sales to just the 772ER sales up to the point where the A333 took
53 Post contains links and images Keesje : A credit crisis / drop in global traffic ? I'm not sure if A380's will be ordered this month.. I think the long term prospects for additional / new A
54 PlaneHunter : Most narrowbodies have been smaller and lighter, so the 757 is not really comparable to them. It's somehow a class of its own. Another indicator for
55 Rheinwaldner : No, 717, 707, 727 were produced for a shorter time... In fact the 757-200 probably had the longest production time of one single version/generation (
56 PlaneHunter : Most orders for the 772ER were placed before the enhanced A333 was available. One could argue that Airbus was under pressure to improve the A330-300
57 Slz396 : It is indeed, apart from serving as an illustration tUS customers needn't be present on the backlog for a plane to become popular, and vice versa. As
58 Slz396 : The 757 is a kind of an 'A321ER' really; hardly a class of it's own IMHO. But let's just conclude we've agreed to differ, shall we? According to you,
59 PlaneHunter : As I have already said before, more than 250 widebodies (mostly twinjets) have been ordered in 2008 and 2009 - but only 11 A380s. Not all carriers ar
60 PlaneHunter : To make it short and easy and to avoid any misunderstandings: It's not essential to win US carriers for turning a program successful. However, in the
61 Post contains images N14AZ : Correct me if I am wrong but British Airways has never ever ordered a widebody jet withouting ordering a considerable amount of additional units later
62 Lightsaber : Interesting list. I hope most do order the A380! Sadly, I agree that the chance of selling A380's 'this month' is low. Any plane that breaks a 1,000
63 Astuteman : Amusing, if nothing else... A fair amount of that will be backlog related, I would have thought, and the chance to avoid committing finances without
64 Slz396 : Why should I? I've used the 757 to illustrate how unfounded the claim is that US carriers make or break a plane's future, as was expressed here: I th
65 PlaneHunter : ...caused by cancellations which are partly related to the 787 delays. PH
66 Jfk777 : TAM operates sectors ranging from 8 to 12 hours not the 14 to 20 hour flights Qantas flies the A380 on. QF also flies their A380 only to LHR and LAX.
67 Lightsaber : Sad but true. I agree no US carrier is required and that has little if anything to do with the A380 success. However, your statments were the 757 was
68 PlaneAdmirer : You left out WN, F9, Easy, FL, Easy, and Ryan......
69 Post contains images Stitch : Never say never!
70 Incitatus : Are you implying that the A380 will capture 4% of the wide-body market? Plugging that into Airbus' global forecast for wide-bodies would yield a dema
71 Post contains links and images Keesje : fuzzy statistics indeed Highly unlikely, they are not active in long haul hub operations and do not have the business model / network / home market /
72 PlaneHunter : No. I have never suggested so. Air Comet and Kingfisher are troubled carriers which have to survive the crisis and the fierce competition before they
73 LipeGIG : Perfect. And TAM faces big competition. To JFK is just impossible to see a A380 with 5 players, to MIA, i rather see more chances of AA using the A38
74 Keesje : The day an airline replaces a Boeing 747-400 by e.g. a 777-300ER is the day they take a 15-20 % capasity and even larger cargo hit. Many flights are
75 Post contains images FRNT787 : I find much of your list to be possibility, but much of it to be very unlikely (as in, I would bet my life savings against it). Anyways, at Dubai, I
76 Stitch : Well the 77W has almost 50% more belly hold volume and 4% more payload weight than a 747-400, so I imagine the belly freight groups of 744 operators
77 FRNT787 : But trends should not be ignored either: There is a rather significant list of airlines who are replacing 747s with 77W, such as ANA, JAL, Philippine
78 PlaneAdmirer : I honestly get your point but what if everyone adds capacity by way of a 380 or a 747-8 and floods the market with seats? Yields get crushed and so d
79 Zeke : That depends on the airport, the 77W does not have the takeoff performance of a 744. One of the main reasons for having the extra belly space for car
80 Keesje : No magic. To/ from China, with headwinds, hot airports, standard runways, high loads, ETOPS, reserves, you're off loading payload. Specially from twin
81 Incitatus : I am going to raise my hand and say I am one of those people that "ignore" those dominating "facts". I wonder if other people will raise their hands
82 Astuteman : I'm happy to acknowledge that delays to the 787 have been a contributory factor. Because it confirms that delays DO impact orders Funny how it never
83 Incitatus : Sorry but that is not true. The maximum payload 744s can accept varies with its several options and engines, between 141k and 162k pounds. The maximu
84 Zeke : Please reread at what I posted, a 773 is a 777-300, not 777-300ER (77W). I have not seen operators putting 744 loads into a 77W, they do in a 773. It
85 Stitch : Well Keesje's argument appeared to be focused on Asian carriers based on the focus of his statements and it's no secret that CX, SQ, NH and JL (among
86 AirNz : And as I previously asked, but yet you have not answered (despite four lines of absolute cobblers!)......WHY? So please explain it to me. I guess you
87 Incitatus : I am not pretending the 77W and the 744 are the same. Just the MTOW advantage of the 744 shows that it will outperform the 77W in many cases. But...
88 PlaneHunter : Have there ever been A380 cancellations due to the program's delay? Boeing alone logged 324 widebody orders between mid 2000 and mid 2004. I don't kn
89 Viscount724 : KL's 77Ws have almost identical seating to their all-passenger 744s. 744 - 428 (42 J, /386 Y) 77W - 425 (35 J, 390 Y) I think that's why KL has cramp
90 Stitch : Operating under the assumption that your question is not rhetorical, there were the 10 cancellations of the A380-800F by 5X in March of 2007 recorded
91 PlaneHunter : Of course you are right, I was only referring to pax aircraft. PH
92 WINGS : While not detailed as you correctly pointed out, we do have the following information. Airbus Wide Body Orders 2000-2004 (Excluding Cancellations) A3
93 Astuteman : Whether there were cancellations or not is not relevant to my point. The order counts of both the 787 AND the A380 HAVE been affected by delays. I'm
94 EPA001 : I would certainly hope that the circumstances were more representative in that period and also hope that such circumstances will become normal again
95 Stitch : As to why it's seen only to affect the 787, I would not be surprised if part of it is because customers who have cancelled their 787s have stated the
96 Zeke : It is not runway length at all. It it more to do with tire speeds and climb gradients. The advantage the 744 has with one engine out it has the loss
97 Briguy1974 : Anyone who thinks Airbus has a chance with the UA order is crazy. I am not sure if A or B want this order... If you read Airliners.net at all you know
98 Flyiguy : I just looked at the Airbus website for A380 orders and it shows as follows... Air France 12 British Airways 12 China Southern 5 Emirates 58 Ethiad 10
99 Astuteman : And I think it's fair to say Stitch (as I think you imply), that the credit situation has combined with the delays on the 787 to cause a different ou
100 Aerokiwi : Could it have something to do with the fact that, simply through their sheer size, an order from a US carrier is likely to represent a large portion
101 PlaneHunter : See my reply 88 and the other before again. My point is that airlines have ordered many widebodies despite the crisis - but only a fractional number
102 Cerecl : Airlines order aircrafts based on their needs, not how large their existing fleets are. No aircraft needs airlines from any specific region to order
103 PlaneHunter : I picked the 757 on purpose to show that the net sales comparison of A380 and 787 in 2009 is absurd. Who has ever said so? Good point. But on the oth
104 Slz396 : Evidence like what? A formal press release from airline XY stating they are NOT going to order the A380 now despite having great interest in it, due
105 Slz396 : No it wasn't. It is actually a perfect illustration of how you can spin sales numbers to fit a cause. Then there must be some extremely good deals to
106 PlaneHunter : Yes, it's an example for numbers spinning - which I didn't do. From the very beginning I have only countered the argument that the lack of A380 sales
107 PlaneHunter : There have been many examples for insider information leaking to the press. That's an optimistic guess in the A380's case...let's see what happens on
108 Cerecl : Firstly, no matter how big the problem the 787 is facing, the possibility of an order is larger than zero, which makes your comparison a slight exgge
109 PlaneHunter : I don't deny that. See reply 106 again. Yes, but the carriers could make even more money with the bird then. As I said, let's see what happens. PH
110 Cerecl : I guess what I am trying to point out is that for many airlines that have not previously ordered A380, doing so during the GFC is a risky move. Even
111 Aerokiwi : Yes, I'm aware of that. What I was trying to explain is that, simply due to the size of their fleets (eg. American's MD80s and 777s, Delta's 767s, No
112 Frigatebird : John Leahy at least was such an ardent supporter until recently Back in 2002/2003, when the last crisis was in the travel industry, very good deals c
113 Slz396 : Only on a.net will the most propable scenario, based on a factual evaluation and comparison without any emotional aspects, be labeled as being 'optim
114 PlaneHunter : Taking several possible new versions into consideration I wouldn't rule out that Airbus can sell a total of some 600 A380s. PH
115 Incitatus : The funny thing is that CO is not getting ready for a merger with UA. But yes, UA's own perception of its future may dictate its orders.
116 Astuteman : [ Not at all, because I agree that there may be a number of reasons, one of which I'll outline below. I made the reference to the 787 cancellations to
117 Incitatus : Sorry I botched my statement. I meant to say both the 774 and 77W may NOT cube out with heavy freight, but cubing out happens a lot with perishables.
118 YVRLTN : When are the ILFC machines due to be produced? Any guesses who these may be assigned to? I believe some are going to EK? VN or TK could be more likely
119 Scouseflyer : It was mentioned higher up, but I think that the first one was pushed back to 2013. Originally 2 of the ILFC birds were being taken by EK but they're
120 IVO : According to websites "airlinerlist.com" & "Planespotter.net" c/n 25 and 28 for Emirates as A6-EDH / EDI are owned by ILFC. Both will be delivered in
121 NA : That are old orders. The 777 sales record of 2009 is disastrous too, and the A330´s record mediocre at best.
122 Astuteman : I was commenting on the allegation that only 11 A380's have been ordered in the last 2 years compared to 250 "other" widebodys. I agree virtually not
123 Ivo : Airbus: Korean Air: 2 x A380, 6 x A330-200 Metco: 2 x A330-200 ILFC: 3 x A330-200 Air AsiaX: 10 x A350-900 Turkish AL: 7 x A330-300, and Today: 3 x A
124 Astuteman : Everything's relative, of course. 38 net widebody orders for Airbus including 2 A380's, in the 10 months to end October is horrendous compared to vir
125 YVRLTN : Thanks, my point being that some smaller airlines who might take 3-4 like VN would be most likely look here rather than buy their own.
126 Scouseflyer :
127 N14AZ : 125 posts and we still don’t know if there will be any announcement regarding a new A 380 order in Dubai. Maybe they will simply announce that there
128 Stitch : Well if Air Comet's finances are as poor as the thread on them claims, they might not actually convert their MoU into an order. And I wonder if that m
129 Astuteman : If I recall correctly, Fedex said as much..... Rgds
130 Stitch : And yet FX said they expect(ed) to add A380-800P2Fs into their fleet in a couple of decades time, so it must still work for them, perhaps as a "regio
131 Post contains links Affirmative : Ok, I just read some comments from Tim Clark that actually does point towards an order during next week. I for one wouldn't be too surprised if that o
132 Scouseflyer : Well as mentioned higher up in this post there's a least one that could be picked up probably next year (MSN004) and with SQ slipping some of it's de
133 N14AZ : It will be a long race, similiar to a Forumula 1 race between Schumacher and Hakkinen... At the end of 2009 / beginning of 2010 the situation should
134 CHRISBA777ER : Some more A388s from QR would be nice!
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