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TAP Long Haul Oct/09 Numbers - Very Good?  
User currently offlineLipeGIG From Brazil, joined May 2005, 11416 posts, RR: 59
Posted (4 years 8 months 3 weeks 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 3572 times:
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Just got TAP October 2009 numbers for their long haul flights, and for me, seems very good, specially the routes to Brazil (with flights to both FOR, GIG and GRU almost 100% full). BSB and SSA also with very good numbers, above 90's.
LAD shows less of a good result, may be because of the additional flights (while Brazil saw less flights).

Load Factor

LIS-GRU / LIS-GIG / OPO-EWR - 98%
LIS-FOR - 97%
LIS-SSA / LIS-BSB - 93%
OPO-GIG / OPO-GRU - 92%
LIS-EWR - 90%
OPO-CCS - 87%
LIS-REC / GRU-LIS - 85%
FOR-LIS - 83%
LIS-MPM - 82%
LIS-CNF - 80%
MPM-LIS - 78%
GIG-LIS / REC-LIS / BSB-LIS - 77%
EWR-LIS - 75%
EWR-OPO / SSA-LIS - 74%
LIS-NAT / GRU-OPO - 73%
GIG-OPO - 72%
LIS-LAD - 71%
LIS-CCS - 69%
LIS-JNB - 67%
CNF-LIS - 66%

Under 65%, just 5 routes, only one with daily flights or more (LAD-LIS).

LAD-LIS - 60%
NAT-LIS - 51%
CCS-OPO - 49%
JNB-LIS - 43%
CCS-LIS - 41%


Opinions ?

Felipe


New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
19 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently offlinePutnik From Sweden, joined Aug 2007, 228 posts, RR: 4
Reply 1, posted (4 years 8 months 3 weeks 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 3531 times:

I'm sure my question will produce some laughter due to my limited knowledge on load factor issues... But how it is possible to have such differences in numbers on the very same route?
OPO-EWR - 98%
EWR-OPO - 74%
LIS-JNB - 67%
JNB-LIS - 43%
These numbers are huge. Where did all those passengers go? They are surely not swimming back home, are they?  Smile



LH504 - we always remember our first :)
User currently offlineKleinsim From Qatar, joined Jan 2007, 154 posts, RR: 0
Reply 2, posted (4 years 8 months 3 weeks 6 days 12 hours ago) and read 3482 times:



Quoting Putnik (Reply 1):
These numbers are huge. Where did all those passengers go? They are surely not swimming back home, are they

This is a typical problem of directionality and these numbers are actually quite common. Also take into account that some connections may only be offered in one direction and passengers may be forced to reroute a different direction. This is why markets are always analyzed directionaly, i.e. LON-NYC and NYC-LON will be considered separate - even though most passengers will buy a LON-NYC ticket with a NYC-LON ticket as a round trip.

And then of course there is that huge black hole in OPO that passengers disappear in
 duck 

Kleinsim


User currently offlineViscount724 From Switzerland, joined Oct 2006, 24858 posts, RR: 22
Reply 3, posted (4 years 8 months 3 weeks 6 days 12 hours ago) and read 3441 times:

Load factors aren't a good indication of profitability. A flight with a 50% load factor but very high yield can be more profitable than one at 95% load factor and nothing but low yield Y class traffic.

User currently offlineAirbazar From United States of America, joined Sep 2003, 8210 posts, RR: 10
Reply 4, posted (4 years 8 months 3 weeks 6 days 11 hours ago) and read 3351 times:

Two things: High LF to Brazil is undoubtedly influenced by the drop in frequencies and available seats. However, the news I hear is that the demand for the Brazil market has rebounded from it's early year drop and it's back to normal for TAP.
As for LAD, I don't expect October to be a very busy month for that market but the yields and cargo loads on that route are always so good that even at 60-70% LF, it's probably still TP's most profitable route.
What is really surprising to me is that EWR can sustain such a high LF thru October. It shows you how underserved N.America is from Portugal.


User currently offlineMIgAiR54 From Spain, joined Jun 2007, 1656 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (4 years 8 months 3 weeks 6 days 11 hours ago) and read 3326 times:



Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 3):
Load factors aren't a good indication of profitability.

Very true, but if a route with 98% load factor is not profitable, it is better for TAP to stop operations........... Big grin

Indeed some of the routes are excellent load factors but Viscount724 is right about yields, Also cargo is usually very important and TAP is the only player in many of these markets so they could have a good money with cargo.....

I always think that IB should get some A332 or even some B787 and start more routes to Brazil, because it´s a huge country and with space to grow, IB network is very good to offer transit pax to all South-America and viceversa.

Quoting Putnik (Reply 1):
They are surely not swimming back home, are they?  

Never say never.


I would like to know how many business class pax have TAP in each route, Transit pax and O&D.....I know it is impossible to know, but I really want to know........


User currently offlineIncitatus From Brazil, joined Feb 2005, 4001 posts, RR: 13
Reply 6, posted (4 years 8 months 3 weeks 6 days 11 hours ago) and read 3325 times:



Quoting Kleinsim (Reply 2):
Also take into account that some connections may only be offered in one direction and passengers may be forced to reroute a different direction.

There should be other factors at play.

TAP's schedules southbound are sometimes daylight flights that have poor connectivity. They are the one with higher load factors. Actually, the load factors out of Portugal into Brazil are consistently higher regardless of destination. It is either seasonality or Brazilians returning to an improved economy.


User currently offlineLipeGIG From Brazil, joined May 2005, 11416 posts, RR: 59
Reply 7, posted (4 years 8 months 3 weeks 6 days 11 hours ago) and read 3298 times:
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Quoting Airbazar (Reply 4):
Two things: High LF to Brazil is undoubtedly influenced by the drop in frequencies and available seats. However, the news I hear is that the demand for the Brazil market has rebounded from it's early year drop and it's back to normal for TAP.

Also the effect of the fact now BSB-LIS, GIG-LIS and GRU-LIS offers overnight flights. This could allow TP to get some good yields as they now offer a more reliable product to Europe.

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 3):
Load factors aren't a good indication of profitability. A flight with a 50% load factor but very high yield can be more profitable than one at 95% load factor and nothing but low yield Y class traffic.



Quoting MIgAiR54 (Reply 5):
Very true, but if a route with 98% load factor is not profitable, it is better for TAP to stop operations...........

That's a good point, and for sure, TP is making good profits out of Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, probably they are two of their top 5 (if not the top 2) performers. Cargo is good, and 98% loads (note that OPO-GIG/GRU are also with good numbers).
But it's not only Rio/Sao Paulo but also FOR, SSA and BSB with very good numbers and showing improvements over previous months (the numbers are even better than July, the highest yielding month.



New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
User currently offlineEwRkId From United States of America, joined Dec 2008, 594 posts, RR: 0
Reply 8, posted (4 years 8 months 3 weeks 6 days 10 hours ago) and read 3230 times:



Quoting LipeGIG (Thread starter):
OPO-EWR - 98%

Hasn't OPO-EWR always been a good performer for TAP?


User currently offlineLipeGIG From Brazil, joined May 2005, 11416 posts, RR: 59
Reply 9, posted (4 years 8 months 3 weeks 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 3193 times:
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Quoting EwRkId (Reply 8):
Hasn't OPO-EWR always been a good performer for TAP?

More/less. It has been one of the best performers during the past three months, but not so strong in July/June.

SEP/09 - 96%
AUG/09 - 96%
JUL/09 - 55%
JUN/09 - 51%



New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
User currently offlineHardiwv From Brazil, joined Oct 2004, 8780 posts, RR: 50
Reply 10, posted (4 years 8 months 3 weeks 6 days 8 hours ago) and read 3116 times:



Quoting LipeGIG (Thread starter):
Just got TAP October 2009 numbers for their long haul flights, and for me, seems very good, specially the routes to Brazil (with flights to both FOR, GIG and GRU almost 100% full).

We need to take into account that TAP results, especially in GRU/GIG/BSB, improved due to new red-eye schedule and capacity cut implemented exactly in the month of September.

Quoting LipeGIG (Thread starter):
Under 65%, just 5 routes, only one with daily flights or more (LAD-LIS).

LAD-LIS - 60%
NAT-LIS - 51%
CCS-OPO - 49%
JNB-LIS - 43%
CCS-LIS - 41%

The usual victim, just LAD is the new "kid in the block".

Quoting LipeGIG (Thread starter):
LAD-LIS - 60%

I said here many times that the return of TAAG would undermine TAP performance in LAD. The party is over.

Rgs,


User currently offlineC010T3 From Brazil, joined Jul 2006, 3681 posts, RR: 19
Reply 11, posted (4 years 8 months 3 weeks 6 days 7 hours ago) and read 3083 times:



Quoting Hardiwv (Reply 10):
I said here many times that the return of TAAG would undermine TAP performance in LAD. The party is over.

Not quite. Isn't DT cutting frequencies?


User currently offlineHardiwv From Brazil, joined Oct 2004, 8780 posts, RR: 50
Reply 12, posted (4 years 8 months 3 weeks 6 days 7 hours ago) and read 3077 times:

TAAG resumed LAD-LIS, this was my point. As per current schedule, DT still ofers LAD-LIS daily while TAP operates the route 10 weekly. What we see from the month of October, when both airlines operate the route simoultaneously, is that the load factor of TAP decreased sharply from an average of 90% (when TAP was the sole player) to 60%.

If TAP load factor was 60% I can imagine DT load factor must be below 40%. Certainly we will see capacity cuts. There is no doubt that DT will always be the weakest link in this competition.

Rgs,

[Edited 2009-11-03 14:38:10 by hardiwv]

User currently offlineLipeGIG From Brazil, joined May 2005, 11416 posts, RR: 59
Reply 13, posted (4 years 8 months 3 weeks 6 days 7 hours ago) and read 3028 times:
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Quoting Hardiwv (Reply 12):
TAAG resumed LAD-LIS, this was my point. As per current schedule, DT still ofers LAD-LIS daily while TAP operates the route 10 weekly. What we see from the month of October, when both airlines operate the route simoultaneously, is that the load factor of TAP decreased sharply from an average of 90% (when TAP was the sole player) to 60%.

But TAAG was not runing with SAA aircraft ?

Quoting C010T3 (Reply 11):
Not quite. Isn't DT cutting frequencies?

Yes, TAAG service is now only a daily one, this will even allow GIG to receive the 772.



New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
User currently offlineLatinThug From Portugal, joined Jan 2007, 105 posts, RR: 0
Reply 14, posted (4 years 8 months 3 weeks 6 days 7 hours ago) and read 3028 times:



Quoting Hardiwv (Reply 12):
Quoting C010T3 (Reply 11):
Not quite. Isn't DT cutting frequencies

I thought TAAG was resuming LAD-LIS service.

Both TAP and TAAG recently upgraded flights to 10 weekly frequencies each on LIS-LAD, however I believe TAAG has cancelled 3 weekly flights for the month of november.


User currently offlineLipeGIG From Brazil, joined May 2005, 11416 posts, RR: 59
Reply 15, posted (4 years 8 months 3 weeks 6 days 6 hours ago) and read 3013 times:
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Quoting LatinThug (Reply 14):
Both TAP and TAAG recently upgraded flights to 10 weekly frequencies each on LIS-LAD, however I believe TAAG has cancelled 3 weekly flights for the month of november.

You're correct, TAAG service to LIS is now just a daily flight.



New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
User currently offlineAirbazar From United States of America, joined Sep 2003, 8210 posts, RR: 10
Reply 16, posted (4 years 8 months 3 weeks 6 days 4 hours ago) and read 2945 times:



Quoting Hardiwv (Reply 10):
I said here many times that the return of TAAG would undermine TAP performance in LAD. The party is over.

TAAG never left. They operated daily to LIS with a leased 744 from SA.
60-70% LF to LAD is nothing to sneeze at. This is simply the result of the increased frequency from 7 to 10 weekly by TP which was fine for the high Summer season but there may not be enough passenger demand to fill 10 weekly frequencies in the off season. Nevertheless, the yields are probably still high enough to turn a profit on a 60-70% LF.


User currently offlineLipeGIG From Brazil, joined May 2005, 11416 posts, RR: 59
Reply 17, posted (4 years 8 months 3 weeks 6 days ago) and read 2879 times:
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Quoting Airbazar (Reply 16):
TAAG never left. They operated daily to LIS with a leased 744 from SA.
60-70% LF to LAD is nothing to sneeze at. This is simply the result of the increased frequency from 7 to 10 weekly by TP which was fine for the high Summer season but there may not be enough passenger demand to fill 10 weekly frequencies in the off season. Nevertheless, the yields are probably still high enough to turn a profit on a 60-70% LF.

Thanks for the confirmation about SA 744.

About the yields, i agree as LAD is a very good business class performer.



New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
User currently offlineHardiwv From Brazil, joined Oct 2004, 8780 posts, RR: 50
Reply 18, posted (4 years 8 months 3 weeks 5 days 20 hours ago) and read 2811 times:



Quoting Hardiwv (Reply 12):
DT still ofers LAD-LIS daily while TAP operates the route 10 weekly.



Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 15):
You're correct, TAAG service to LIS is now just a daily flight.

See my quote 12. And not only has TAAG reduced the frequency to LIS, it has also cut capacity deploying the narrow body B737-700 in September/October for some flights

Quoting Airbazar (Reply 16):
TAAG never left. They operated daily to LIS with a leased 744 from SA.

This is why I said "still" (in fact DT wet leased SAA's 2 B747-400's with GE engines to do the Luanda-Lisbon routes. The TAAG flights were operated by SAA aircraft, crew and cabin crew under a TAAG callsighn). However, frequency was

The reduction from 10 to daily flights in LIS is also related to Boeing issuing a warning note to DT that it is "overusing" the aircraft in 100h/month above the recommended threashold (which is 300h/month). We all know what is the result: delays and maintenance issues. [DT is the airline which has more delays among all foreign carriers in Brazil].

http://www.angonoticias.com/full_headlines.php?id=25516

Rgs,


User currently offlineHardiwv From Brazil, joined Oct 2004, 8780 posts, RR: 50
Reply 19, posted (4 years 8 months 3 weeks 4 days 20 hours ago) and read 2529 times:

Further to TAP performance load in Brazilian routes in October 2009, here is the result comparing the numbers with last year (October 2008):

LIS (pax/load factor/pax compared with October 2008)

GRU 21.409 91,50% (-138)
GIG 19.922 87,50% (-858)
FOR 12.464 90% (-763)
BSB 11.950 85% (+715)
REC 11.645 81% (+951)
SSA 11.573 83,50% (+368)
CNF 8.766 73% (+865)
NAT 5.738 62% (-803)

TOTAL 103.467 81,69% (-337)

OPO:

GRU 3.961 82,50% (-963)
GIG 3.928 82% (-369)

TOTAL 7.889 82,25% (-1.332)

LIS+OPO:

GRU 25.370 87% (-1.101)
GIG 23.850 84% (-1.227)


We see that TAP carried less 1,332 pax in October 2009 as compared to October 2009. Routes gaining pax were BSB, REC, SSA and CNF, while GIG, GRU, NAT and FOR loss pax in comparison with the same month last year.

Rgs,


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