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Which US Carrier Likely To Order B-787 Or A-350  
User currently offlineHNL-Jack From United States of America, joined Mar 2001, 817 posts, RR: 0
Posted (4 years 5 months 1 week 3 days 18 hours ago) and read 17495 times:

So far we have AA, CO & DL ordering the 787 and HA the A-350. Anyone else likely in the near future?


Grew up in the business and continued the family tradition.
83 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineRW170 From United States of America, joined Sep 2007, 430 posts, RR: 0
Reply 1, posted (4 years 5 months 1 week 3 days 18 hours ago) and read 17499 times:

US also has the A350 on order.


319/320/321/712/733/734/735/73G/738/752/753/763/CR2/CR9/DH8/135/145/170/175/190/D9S/D94/D95/M82/M83/M88
User currently offlineHNL-Jack From United States of America, joined Mar 2001, 817 posts, RR: 0
Reply 2, posted (4 years 5 months 1 week 3 days 18 hours ago) and read 17467 times:



Quoting RW170 (Reply 1):
US also has the A350 on order.

Thanks...didn't recall that order. Guess that only leaves UA as a prospect.



Grew up in the business and continued the family tradition.
User currently offlineKeesje From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 3, posted (4 years 5 months 1 week 3 days 18 hours ago) and read 17461 times:

The A350 has more wing so probably more payload / range.

Theortically I could see the Pacific carriers (UA, DL) going for the A350-900 or A350-900R. For airlines wih strong Atlantic - Middle South America networks the 787-9 (and a possible high capasity medium range 787-10) seems better suited (AA, CO, US) IMO.

The 787-8 and A350-1000 seem to have segments of their own so could be ordered by all.

Domestic -Caribien / Canada networks replacement of the 757/767 fleets is still a question mark for me. The 787 seems very sub optimal and the A350 even less suited.


User currently offlineBohica From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 2627 posts, RR: 0
Reply 4, posted (4 years 5 months 1 week 3 days 15 hours ago) and read 17193 times:



Quoting HNL-Jack (Reply 2):
Guess that only leaves UA as a prospect.

UA is planning on placing a large order for A/C before the end of the year. We'll have to wait and see who gives UA the best deal.


User currently offlineBmacleod From Canada, joined Aug 2001, 2195 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (4 years 5 months 1 week 3 days 15 hours ago) and read 17145 times:



Quoting HNL-Jack (Thread starter):
DL ordering the 787

Rumor was that DL was looking at cancelling the order due financial situation. But its 763s are aging so it's more likely the order would be delayed.

My  twocents  says the UA will choose the 787 over the A350XWB. More likely UA would order the A380 than order the A350....



The engine is the heart of an airplane, but the pilot is its soul.
User currently offlineIkramerica From United States of America, joined May 2005, 21413 posts, RR: 60
Reply 6, posted (4 years 5 months 1 week 3 days 14 hours ago) and read 16960 times:



Quoting Bmacleod (Reply 5):
Rumor was that DL was looking at cancelling the order due financial situation.

That was an unfounded rumor, AFAIK. It stemmed from them pushing back 787 deliveries. But this is more likely because they didn't want early build 787-8s, instead opting for "fully capable" 788 and 789s.



Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
User currently offlineAA737-823 From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 5637 posts, RR: 11
Reply 7, posted (4 years 5 months 1 week 3 days 14 hours ago) and read 16886 times:



Quoting Bmacleod (Reply 5):
My    says the UA will choose the 787 over the A350XWB. More likely UA would order the A380 than order the A350....

The latest rumor on the internets (I think I know who said it, but in case I'm wrong, I won't say!!!) was that Airbus had the lead in the order. Which makes sense for the narrowbodies... UA just retired their last 737Classic- why on Earth would they switch from A320 to 737NG now??
But for widebodies, it will be a surprise. And, for me, a disappointment.


User currently offlineBMI727 From United States of America, joined Feb 2009, 15443 posts, RR: 26
Reply 8, posted (4 years 5 months 1 week 3 days 13 hours ago) and read 16852 times:



Quoting Keesje (Reply 3):
(and a possible high capasity medium range 787-10)

The 787-10 will be longer range than that, more like the A350-900. The only thing I could see with that description would be if they revive the -3 with a longer fuselage.



Why do Aerospace Engineering students have to turn things in on time?
User currently offlineKeesje From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 9, posted (4 years 5 months 1 week 3 days 13 hours ago) and read 16764 times:



Quoting BMI727 (Reply 8):
The 787-10 will be longer range than that, more like the A350-900. The only thing I could see with that description would be if they revive the -3 with a longer fuselage.

I guess then it would need bigger wings / engines.



User currently offlineBMI727 From United States of America, joined Feb 2009, 15443 posts, RR: 26
Reply 10, posted (4 years 5 months 1 week 3 days 12 hours ago) and read 16712 times:



Quoting Keesje (Reply 9):
I guess then it would need bigger wings / engines.

That chart has the 787-8 on it. The 787-10 as it stands now would be almost identical in size and range to the A350-900, not a high capacity medium range aircraft. The medium range 787 would be the 787-3, which is smaller plane and a dormant project.

I suppose they could use the 787-9 or -10 as the basis for a medium range variant, but I would question whether or not the demand is there. I don't think it is at the moment.



Why do Aerospace Engineering students have to turn things in on time?
User currently offline727LOVER From United States of America, joined Oct 2001, 5952 posts, RR: 17
Reply 11, posted (4 years 5 months 1 week 3 days 12 hours ago) and read 16658 times:



Quoting AA737-823 (Reply 7):
UA just retired their last 737Classic- why on Earth would they switch from A320 to 737NG now??

What does Airbus have to replace aging 757? Boeing has 737-900ER



Listen Betty, don't start up with your 'White Zone' s*** again.
User currently offlineJHCRJ700 From United States of America, joined Oct 2009, 377 posts, RR: 0
Reply 12, posted (4 years 5 months 1 week 3 days 12 hours ago) and read 16618 times:

I sure hope United stay with Boeing for their long haul fleet. I would love to have seen some 737ngs in their livery  brokenheart 


RUSH
User currently offlineA342 From Germany, joined Jul 2005, 4675 posts, RR: 3
Reply 13, posted (4 years 5 months 1 week 3 days 12 hours ago) and read 16610 times:



Quoting 727LOVER (Reply 11):
What does Airbus have to replace aging 757? Boeing has 737-900ER

Airbus has the equivalent of the 737-900ER, the A321-200. And don't be fooled by the "ER" designation, the A321 has at least the same range and even a slightly higher maximum payload. This has been discussed in previous topics.

A342



Exceptions confirm the rule.
User currently offlineBMI727 From United States of America, joined Feb 2009, 15443 posts, RR: 26
Reply 14, posted (4 years 5 months 1 week 3 days 12 hours ago) and read 16611 times:



Quoting 727LOVER (Reply 11):
What does Airbus have to replace aging 757? Boeing has 737-900ER

They have the A321, but UA is lucky in the respect that they can have either type actually replace the 757, since they don't fly them transatlantic. The 757 doesn't really need replacement that badly anyway.



Why do Aerospace Engineering students have to turn things in on time?
User currently offlineTu154 From United States of America, joined Dec 2004, 374 posts, RR: 4
Reply 15, posted (4 years 5 months 1 week 3 days 10 hours ago) and read 16105 times:

Didin't i read in another post that speculation is a UA order for the A350/330/321?

I think it was in a UA fleet update thread..........



FIRST ON THE ATLANTIC.....FIRST ON THE PACIFIC.....FIRST IN LATIN AMERICA...FIRST 'ROUND THE WORLD.....PAN AM!!
User currently offlinePlaneAdmirer From United States of America, joined Jul 2009, 551 posts, RR: 1
Reply 16, posted (4 years 5 months 1 week 3 days 10 hours ago) and read 16079 times:



Quoting Bohica (Reply 4):
UA is planning on placing a large order for A/C before the end of the year. We'll have to wait and see who gives UA the best deal.

Again, UA asked for financing as part of the deal. I guess the manufacturer that is willing to finance the purchase and assume all of the risk is going to get the deal. However, one wonders what type of precedent that will set with other customers. It won't be good. Airbus' Enders in a WSJ article said something about cutting back on production rather than financing their own sales as that's not really bringing new money in the door. I find it hard to believe that Boeing is in a position to finance fleet renewal at UA. If either A or B do chose to do that, who will be next line looking for similar terms and when would it stop?


User currently offlineViscount724 From Switzerland, joined Oct 2006, 24061 posts, RR: 23
Reply 17, posted (4 years 5 months 1 week 3 days 9 hours ago) and read 16023 times:



Quoting HNL-Jack (Thread starter):
So far we have AA, CO & DL ordering the 787

AA is only an intent to order, subject to agreement with their pilots. Boeing hasn't recorded any firm 787 order from AA.


User currently offlineKPHXFlyer From United States of America, joined Mar 2008, 413 posts, RR: 1
Reply 18, posted (4 years 5 months 1 week 3 days 7 hours ago) and read 15374 times:



Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 17):
AA is only an intent to order, subject to agreement with their pilots.

Based on reading some old threads, I'm to understand that the issue the pilots have with the 787 is the pay rate to fly it. I'm curious as to why the 787 requires a new agreement? Did they have to do something similar when they ordered the 777?


User currently offlineNws2002 From United States of America, joined Feb 2008, 854 posts, RR: 0
Reply 19, posted (4 years 5 months 1 week 3 days 7 hours ago) and read 15284 times:



Quoting KPHXFlyer (Reply 18):
I'm curious as to why the 787 requires a new agreement?

Pay scales are laid out in the contract by aircraft type at AA (and most other carriers). So a 5 year 737 captain makes X per hour, a 5 year 757/767 captain makes Y per hour, and a 5 year 777 captain makes Z per hour. Adding a new type requires negations on that new pay scale.


User currently offlineSSTsomeday From Canada, joined Oct 2006, 1276 posts, RR: 1
Reply 20, posted (4 years 5 months 1 week 3 days 3 hours ago) and read 14379 times:



Quoting Keesje (Reply 3):
Domestic -Caribien / Canada networks replacement of the 757/767 fleets is still a question mark for me. The 787 seems very sub optimal and the A350 even less suited.

Seems to me that domestic routes to/within Canada are being covered more and more by 737/320 sized A/C - because the market is very fragmented and (enter Westjet) they want to compete with a bit of frequency. There was a time when LAX-YYZ had a 747, 2 767's and a 320 in one day. I also flew an L-1011 in my day. Now it's all 320 traffic. And I think they have still lost a frequency on the route, due to competition (and now the recession).

However - that said - it seems you are right (from a previous thread) that we lack a true replacement for the 757/ 767-200. I think their would be a market for a long range, new build 200 seat A/C that could operate thin routes economically. A hub-buster, if you will.... I suggest you could get some nice premium yield on direct flights between secondary centers (business travelers avoiding plane changes = heaven)

Quoting Bmacleod (Reply 5):
More likely UA would order the A380 than order the A350....

I wouldn't predict that, mostly because American carriers do not have one mega hub like many of their foreign counterparts. With the 777 doing largely what the 747 once did, but leaner and meaner, it seems to me that UA would go for some combination of the large twin (777/787/350 - though probably not all three.) Same with Delta/Northwest and their 744 fleet. I see their eventual replacements being large twins.

I'm not promoting this - it would be interesting to see the 380 or 747-8 in some domestic colors - but I just don't expect it. I don't think we have the niche.



I come in peace
User currently offlineDeltaL1011man From United States of America, joined Sep 2005, 9071 posts, RR: 12
Reply 21, posted (4 years 5 months 1 week 3 days 2 hours ago) and read 14295 times:



Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 6):
That was an unfounded rumor, AFAIK. It stemmed from them pushing back 787 deliveries. But this is more likely because they didn't want early build 787-8s, instead opting for "fully capable" 788 and 789s.

One PR from someone with "The 787 will play a major roll in our fleet"(R.anderson) has got a.net all up in arms. But you are right. Delta has moved the first to planes back, NW was only going to get 2 of the first 20. DL now has slots past the first 20 for 18 787-8 with RR Trent engines. This order is still alive and with the 787 backing up and Delta wanting to grow no more than 3% a year for now they are sitting pretty good. They have a good bit of slack in the 767/777/744 fleet and with them taking 2 more 777s next year they really don't need anything.

Quoting Bmacleod (Reply 5):
Rumor was that DL was looking at cancelling the order due financial situation

wow this is the first time i have heard this. No, Delta has not dumped any 787 orders.

Quoting Keesje (Reply 3):
Theortically I could see the Pacific carriers (UA, DL) going for the A350-900 or A350-900R.

"Of course, you could wait for the [Airbus] A350," he said, "But why?" Gerry Grinstein, couldn't have put it better myself Delta needs a 350 like they need the 748,380, and really 77W.

the 787-9 will be the next 763ER for Delta.



yep.
User currently offlineWingedMigrator From United States of America, joined Oct 2005, 2131 posts, RR: 56
Reply 22, posted (4 years 5 months 1 week 3 days 2 hours ago) and read 14263 times:



Quoting SSTsomeday (Reply 20):
With the 777 doing largely what the 747 once did, but leaner and meaner

Indeed, but it's doing it for other people. Not a single major US airline operates the 773ER... and it's possible that none ever will, unless the 777 is seriously refreshed.


User currently offlineAirNZ From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 23, posted (4 years 5 months 1 week 3 days ago) and read 13767 times:



Quoting DeltaL1011man (Reply 21):
couldn't have put it better myself Delta needs a 350 like they need the 748,380, and really 77W.

So, again I will ask you as in the past, on exactly what basis does someone without any experience definitively claim to know what aircraft an airline specifically needs/doesn't need to perform it's operations


User currently offlineDeltaL1011man From United States of America, joined Sep 2005, 9071 posts, RR: 12
Reply 24, posted (4 years 5 months 1 week 3 days ago) and read 13687 times:



Quoting AirNZ (Reply 23):
So, again I will ask you as in the past, on exactly what basis does someone without any experience definitively claim to know what aircraft an airline specifically needs/doesn't need to perform it's operations

If the 744 are such money makers why is it that they are pretty much doing charter work and have some of the lowest number of routes?
LAX-NRT
ATL-NRT
DTW-NRT
MSP-NRT
DTW-NGO 5x weekly.
and a few NRT turns
with 16 airplanes.

I guess they are making so much money that they only need to run a few of them. So yea they should add the 380/748/77W/350 because they have a hard time making 16 744 work.  Yeah sure



yep.
25 DeltaL1011man : and i forgot to add.....seeing the the US airlines are just and have been just making oh so much money they need to add MORE seats into there fleets.
26 AirNZ : Hmm! I think you actually need to go back and re-read what I wrote, because none of that was what I asked you. For one, I never referred to 744's in
27 DeltaL1011man : I said they don't need anything larger than the 789/77L.......you asked how do i know this......I told you. They aren't making money with the big(ger
28 Astuteman : It's difficult to understand how a 787-10 with 20 tonnes less MTOW, and less efficient engines, and smaller area/smaller span wings, can be of simila
29 413x3 : Because gas is expensive in America. 4 engines equal more guzzling of expensive fuel
30 RB211TriStar : I don't see UA ordering anything as large as the A380. They're only filling their planes as a result of reduced capacity as it is now. Someone would
31 Keesje : That was may 2007, a few months before infamous Dreamliner roll out. I'm under the impression a thing or two have changed since then. Airbus offered
32 Trex8 : Can a A321 or a 739ER , do LAX or PHX to Hawaii? UAL don't fly PHX-hawaii , uses US codeshare, but they do west coast to Hawaii.
33 A342 : If a 739ER can do LAX-HNL (as proven by CO), so can an A321. But PHX-HNL is out of the question for both. A342
34 JRDC930 : As much as i like Airbus long haul aircraft, i do hope UA goes with Boeing, just to support the home team so to speak. However, i have a nasty gut fee
35 BMI727 : The numbers I saw quoted almost identical capacity and range for the two aircraft. Cargo might be an x factor here, but another possibility is the ex
36 KPHXFlyer : US flies 757's on PHX-Hawaii flights. They could probably use a A319/A320 but I don't think they'd go to a smaller aircraft unless yields were bad on
37 BMI727 : I don't know. Looking at an old route map, that PHX flight did indeed stop at SNA. AQ also had SNA-RNO and a few other routes on the mainland.
38 Post contains links EGNR : "Citing company statements and other sources, Leeham said United is not interested in the Airbus A380 or Boeing 747-8, considers the 777-300ER to be "
39 PlaneAdmirer : You know considering how old the 320 it's mildly amusing to hear that the 777 is now "old." The criteria in this award is going to be pricing and fin
40 Wn676 : It was either or OGG from PHX, I'm not sure which one it was, but either way it was a one-stop through SNA.[Edited 2009-11-09 13:39:35 by wn676]
41 Keesje : I think they can deliver a very efficient proven product within two yrs, the A330. With the 787 you are facing a 800 aircraft backlog, unconfirmed pe
42 Post contains links PlaneAdmirer : Just so you know I wrote, "buy the order" based on the following that was linked to in a previous post from ENGR: http://blog.seattlepi.com/aerospace
43 Keesje : I think Airbus and Boeing would be willing to do limtted consesions on normal market prices for the 787-8, 787-9, B737-7/800, 777-300ER, A319-A231, A
44 BMI727 : The A330 would work well on their Atlantic route system from ORD and maybe even SFO, though the -300 may be too large to replace the 767. The A330 co
45 Keesje : Low orders / backlogs. The -900ER is carried by Lionair, the 777-200LR has a backlog of 16 ? Same for the 747-8i. It has a unique fuselage, systems a
46 BMI727 : But they are built on the same assembly line if I'm not mistaken, so the total 737 and 777 backlog is what is relevant. The problem with the 747-8i i
47 PlaneAdmirer : I have been patiently waiting for you to say this in this thread. That maybe what the 380 program needs, but LH and Boeing seem to be of a different
48 Columba : The problem is with the 787 and A350 there will be a modern replacement for the 777 available soon. The A320/737NG will for a couple of years the onl
49 Trex8 : given LH are a launch customer and the only one at the time, or for the foreseeable future at the time also, they probably got very good terms for ge
50 PlaneAdmirer : And, therefore, have a compelling incentive to keep flying the Queen. Reasonable?
51 JRDC930 : Good to know. If UA wants to lock itself in with one manufacturer i say let them. At least boeing knows now, not to waste their time with UA. Boeing
52 PlaneAdmirer : While part of me agrees with you, I also recall when Air Canada decided to get 787's and 777's for its long haul fleet. Now will Boeing go all out fo
53 BMI727 : That is cutting off an awful lot of the market. Because sometimes it works. Not always, but even if you get one major order, it will have been time w
54 Evomutant : Give it a break. CO and AA are all Boeing, and will continue to be. It's nothing new. Boeing will continue to court UA, Airbus will continue to try i
55 BMI727 : Exactly. That doesn't mean Airbus doesn't try. After all, AA and CO don't buy Boeings because of the looks.
56 PM : I think you'll struggle to find many airlines that are "far" bigger than UA...
57 JRDC930 : True; but one has towonder about the feasability of this happening, when an airline calls your product "old technology"... No, if they are SERIOUS ab
58 PM : Very, very few airlines could be accused of "little history of showing interest in Boeing". Some have ended up ordering rather few (my home carrier,
59 JRDC930 : I mean airlines that are EXLCUSIVE to airbus.
60 PM : Would you like to list them for us...?
61 JRDC930 : I meant the airlines that only ordered the A350...obviously if they didnt order the 787, but still have short haul boeings they shouldnt ignore them,
62 PM : Let me guess. TAP are all-Airbus and have ordered the A350. US airways haven't ordered Boeings in a while and have ordered the A350. Swiss haven't or
63 PM : So next month IB go to Chicago with their chequebook open and say they want 30 787s. You are saying that Boeing should show them the door. I see.
64 United1 : I'm not sure where you are getting hostile from? Its quite possible that the 787 is not capable of performing the missions that UA wants it to that d
65 JRDC930 : If you read my posts, i never said it was a GOOD business strategy, or that if i was in Boeings position that i would do that. I merely stated that i
66 PM : Well, you were rather more insistent in your earlier post: "...SHOULD be ignored..." and " SHOULD cut off all contact..." You say you are studying av
67 Jtdieffen : Well, not to argue against something that I know from experience to be nothing more than flamebait, but your attitude puts all the responsibility on
68 United1 : Well the 777-300ER is current technology and while it is a great and very capable aircraft what UA is looking for is the next generation of aircraft.
69 Jtdieffen : I think that what's ironic about this whole thing is that if couple this statement with the statements about United wanting golden financing, then it
70 United1 : More then likely those comments were taken out of the initial negotiating platform that UA opened with. I'm sure even UA doesn't even expect to get t
71 JRDC930 : Did you read my whole post? I never said what i wanted was a good strategy, i said it was based on my own personal and selfish desire to keep seing B
72 Astuteman : Are you serious? There's NO airline that shows NO interest in one of the two major airframers. All of them have a duty of care to consider alternativ
73 HNL-Jack : As for the UA order, putting Boeing and Airbus aside, it was my understanding that the order they're shopping is for the narrow body fleet, so I'm not
74 JRDC930 : In all actuality no. read post 71 and you'll see why. I did not make things clear from the start that the treatment i suggested boeing use toward air
75 Post contains links PM : I'm afraid you're a bit out of the loop. http://www.flightglobal.com/articles...oser-to-fleet-revamp-decision.html It's a widebody order + 757 replac
76 Columba : Then you have the wrong job. What would you say if Air France/KLM, British Airways, Iberia, Lufthansa would stop buying Boeing aircraft for the same
77 PM : Not to detract from your fine post (with which I wholly agree) but there's a nit here I need to pick and that is that the NW fleet was/is a mixture o
78 HNL-Jack : " target=_blank>http://www.flightglobal.com/articles....html I hadn't seen that quote. However, wasn't the original RFP for narrow-body fleet replace
79 EA772LR : I personally don't really see the need for the A359R. Unless Airbus can upgrade the A359 relatively inexpensively, I just don't see the need. The bas
80 Rheinwaldner : Protectionism of this kind will ultimatively lead to weak airlines. You give away a lot of competitiveness for no benefit if you exclude half of the
81 Ivo : You can turn this around, just think of EL AL. Airbus has given up hope to sell something to them. Ivo
82 Bobnwa : You still haven't answered AirNZ's question, about having zero airline experience, be such an expert on any airlines equipment needs. This question h
83 PM : No. I think you're still missing the point. This order is top down, not bottom up. It's a widebody order plus some 757 replacements, not a narrowbody
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