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US-Brazil 2010 Expectations With 14 Frequencies  
User currently offlineLipeGIG From Brazil, joined May 2005, 11458 posts, RR: 58
Posted (5 years 6 days 5 hours ago) and read 7776 times:
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2009 is almost ended and the demand is recovering quickly due to the better BRL x US$ rate (in favor of Brazilians).
Meanwhile, Business demand is not so strong and except for markets like booming oil/gas industry, it's recovering slowly and fares are on lowest levels for the past 5 years (at least).

In 2008, 21 frequencies become available and onlyAA/DL applied and got all of them:

AA - 7x MIA-SSA-REC
AA - 4x MIA-CNF
DL - 6x ATL-MAO
DL - 4x ATL-REC-FOR

In 2009, more 14 frequencies become available, and this time, AA/DL/US/CO applied for. In the end CO and US got them:

CO - 7x IAH-GIG
US - 7x CLT-GIG

For 2010, more 14 frequencies will be available and we may exepct some activity during the next 3 months as they will be effective October 2010

AA and DL results on Northeast are not so great, and DL even relocate some of their frequencies to create a new ATL-BSB that they will begin mid-December and AA downgrade its route to 752 from 763. In the other hand, CO has obtained very good results with it's " oil/gas express " Houston-Rio that they decided to upgrade the route to 764 a few days before they in fact begin flights.
US will begin their flights in three weeks and their advance bookings sounds very good for the first 6 weeks and business is becoming busy on the first weeks of the flight (with 18 seats this is expected)

So what everyone believe will happen in 2010 ....

- Does CO will continue to explore GIG with a flight out of EWR ?
- Does AA will venture into BSB ? Does AA will apply for JFK-GIG again ?
- What to expect from DL after tried MAO, REC, FOR and now BSB ?
- VCP is an alternative ?
- US can try to obtain more 7 frequencies ?

What i believe everyone agree is that UA is out of this.

AFAIK, the only plans JJ have for 2010 is to increase GIG-JFK to daily service.


New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
72 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineLAXintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 26025 posts, RR: 50
Reply 1, posted (5 years 6 days 3 hours ago) and read 7654 times:

Good topic. I think it will be a little hard to tell what will happen in 2010, but suspect people like AA and DL will put in for the slots.

Quoting LipeGIG (Thread starter):
AFAIK, the only plans JJ have for 2010 is to increase GIG-JFK to daily service.

I really wish they would purse a West Coast link. With the United feed and Star connectivity I think they could really make the route work much better then Delta with its on/off LAX-GRU attempts.

Quoting LipeGIG (Thread starter):
What i believe everyone agree is that UA is out of this.

Agreed. Deep South America is not UA's forte.

Quoting LipeGIG (Thread starter):
- VCP is an alternative ?

You know I've done business around Campinas and certainly have a little affinity for the area which has its own economic base but I am not sure if US carriers are ready to sell it as being truly Sao Paulo. Its sits further then GRU and has more limited connection opportunities primarily on LCCs

I do however remember way back as late as the 1980s when people like Swissair, Air France and others served VCP which was then the primary international airport for Sao Paulo. So maybe things will go back to how it was once.



From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
User currently offlineSJOtoLIR From Costa Rica, joined Jul 2007, 4592 posts, RR: 4
Reply 2, posted (5 years 6 days 3 hours ago) and read 7636 times:



Quoting LAXintl (Reply 1):
Deep South America is not UA's forte.

I would second that. UA may support their operations in Brazil based on the code-share agreement JJ-UA.
Regards.



"Goin' up to the spirit in the sky"
User currently offlineLipeGIG From Brazil, joined May 2005, 11458 posts, RR: 58
Reply 3, posted (5 years 6 days 3 hours ago) and read 7565 times:
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Quoting LAXintl (Reply 1):
I really wish they would purse a West Coast link. With the United feed and Star connectivity I think they could really make the route work much better then Delta with its on/off LAX-GRU attempts

I agree with you. May be a new study in 2010 see better chances for this route. As they decided not to fly to JNB, LAX can become again a possibility.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 1):
You know I've done business around Campinas and certainly have a little affinity for the area which has its own economic base but I am not sure if US carriers are ready to sell it as being truly Sao Paulo. Its sits further then GRU and has more limited connection opportunities primarily on LCCs

Yes i know and also i'm pretty familiar with the potential out of VCP. The fact is LAXIntl, they can sell Campinas to Campinas market as a flight to the United States without the problem of having a 100Km trip to Sao Paulo. And if they can't expand Sao Paulo, Campinas can become an important alternative.

Quoting SJOtoLIR (Reply 2):
I would second that. UA may support their operations in Brazil based on the code-share agreement JJ-UA.
Regards

And CO also (not to forget US). I see big chances for TAM to run their NYC operations out of EWR, and i can see CO with EWR-GIG in their pipeline. This could lead to Star product with very good coverage: early night / late night out of the two city pairs: New York Area-Sao Paulo / New York Area - Rio de Janeiro, plus a daylight to Sao Paulo.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 1):
Good topic. I think it will be a little hard to tell what will happen in 2010, but suspect people like AA and DL will put in for the slots

Thanks. I see this procedure for 2010 as the one with the chances to attract more requests. 2008 had 23 frequencies requested for 21 available IIRC, 2009 got 25 for just 14 and now we have more 21. I can see CO also on this after the good performance of Houston-Rio.



New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
User currently offlineOP3000 From United States of America, joined Jun 2009, 1784 posts, RR: 2
Reply 4, posted (5 years 6 days 2 hours ago) and read 7495 times:



Quoting LipeGIG (Thread starter):
- Does AA will venture into BSB ? Does AA will apply for JFK-GIG again ?

Interesting questions. DL is most aggressive in trying new routes so I think ATL-BSB is a go. AA may follow them on BSB, given they have some frequencies they can shift too. I don't see AA going for JFK-GIG. Which...

Quoting LipeGIG (Thread starter):
- Does CO will continue to explore GIG with a flight out of EWR ?



Quoting LipeGIG (Thread starter):

AFAIK, the only plans JJ have for 2010 is to increase GIG-JFK to daily service.

EWR-GIG is the most obvious next choice for CO to add in Brazil, but IMO they should not go for it yet. Unless they can do so before JJ adds frequencies. Otherwise, the Real may still be a bit too strong for tourism, and EWR is not IAH in terms of energy business traffic. On the other hand, JJ will join *A next year and at that point CO will be able to offer connections to the rest of Brazil like UA does. That partnership also can help them attract more passengers originating in Brazil (TAM FFs and/or connections), whom American carriers flying to GRU and GIG don't typically rely on so much but are more critical now given the strong Brazilian economy and currency.

Quoting LipeGIG (Thread starter):

- VCP is an alternative ?

I don't see much happening long-haul in VCP until Azul partners with somebody outside of Brazil and/or the bullet train is complete, whichever comes first.

Quoting LipeGIG (Thread starter):

- US can try to obtain more 7 frequencies ?

US will begin their flights in three weeks and their advance bookings sounds very good for the first 6 weeks and business is becoming busy on the first weeks of the flight (with 18 seats this is expected)

Its not so credible that US will actually launch what they get, particularly in the eyes of the US DOT which recently rejected their trying to hoard the unused PEK frequencies they got.

As for CLT-GIG, I think that they've had great timing in launching it for the Holidays and the IATA winter, but lets see how it does after Carnaval. Like CO they will get some additional loads with JJ joining *A.


User currently offlineUSAirALB From United States of America, joined Sep 2007, 3147 posts, RR: 2
Reply 5, posted (5 years 6 days 2 hours ago) and read 7439 times:



Quoting LipeGIG (Thread starter):
US will begin their flights in three weeks and their advance bookings sounds very good for the first 6 weeks and business is becoming busy on the first weeks of the flight (with 18 seats this is expected)

Im curious to see where you got this information from. You know that the seat maps aren't always a good source, right? According to the seat map, there is 1 open seat in Envoy and 30 seats open in Y.

That is 173/204 with a capacity of 85% at this time. Lets hope you are right.

Quoting OP3000 (Reply 4):
Its not so credible that US will actually launch what they get, particularly in the eyes of the US DOT which recently rejected their trying to hoard the unused PEK frequencies they got.

As for CLT-GIG, I think that they've had great timing in launching it for the Holidays and the IATA winter, but lets see how it does after Carnaval. Like CO they will get some additional loads with JJ joining *A.

Well, yes and no. By returning the route to DOT, they llok good in DOTs eyes by saying "we realize that this route would not be profitable at this time". DOT saw that US realized that themselves without having DOT tell them to give it up, which is good. They also have the option to apply for this again, and they will get priority.

I think this is also true for future South America slots they will apply for.

And for US- May God give you Good Speed Always on your first ever route to South America.



E135/E140/E145/E70/E75/E90/CR2/CR7/CR9/717/732/733/734/735/73G/738/739/752/753/762/772/319/320/321/333
User currently onlineOA412 From United States of America, joined Dec 2000, 5351 posts, RR: 25
Reply 6, posted (5 years 6 days 1 hour ago) and read 7356 times:



Quoting USAirALB (Reply 5):
By returning the route to DOT, they llok good in DOTs eyes by saying "we realize that this route would not be profitable at this time". DOT saw that US realized that themselves without having DOT tell them to give it up, which is good. They also have the option to apply for this again, and they will get priority.

Not entirely. The only reason that US returned the rights to the DOT is because the DOT denied their motion to postpone the startup of the route for another year which would have forced US to begin flying the route.. Had the DOT approved the postponement, they would probably have held onto the rights.



Hughes Airwest - Top Banana In The West
User currently offlineLipeGIG From Brazil, joined May 2005, 11458 posts, RR: 58
Reply 7, posted (5 years 5 days 23 hours ago) and read 7231 times:
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Quoting OP3000 (Reply 4):
Interesting questions. DL is most aggressive in trying new routes so I think ATL-BSB is a go. AA may follow them on BSB, given they have some frequencies they can shift too. I don't see AA going for JFK-GIG. Which...

At the same time OP3000, DL is aggressive but now they know some markets are not so strong. It gives them just a few options in my view:

- ATL-BSB , more 3x weekly flights - this i expect.
- ATL-CNF, not so good idea giving the fact AA is already there.
- JFK-GIG, i can't see DL with a good product and even being such a under served market, DL in my view will not apply for that.
- more ATL-FOR, i doubt
As we can see, DL has few options to apply and will be a surprise to me if they apply for more than 5 weekly frequencies.

Quoting OP3000 (Reply 4):
EWR-GIG is the most obvious next choice for CO to add in Brazil, but IMO they should not go for it yet. Unless they can do so before JJ adds frequencies. Otherwise, the Real may still be a bit too strong for tourism, and EWR is not IAH in terms of energy business traffic

The fact is, east coast still generates a big portion of the traffic to/from Rio (as well as to/from Brazil in general). Newark area has important links with Rio like Prudential and still, as i mentioned above, Rio-New York in my view still demand additional services.

Quoting OP3000 (Reply 4):
I don't see much happening long-haul in VCP until Azul partners with somebody outside of Brazil and/or the bullet train is complete, whichever comes first

But you're not taking into consideration the fact that there's a huge industrial and services cluster full of US corporations around Campinas area as well as people from Campinas like to travel abroad, too.

Quoting OP3000 (Reply 4):
As for CLT-GIG, I think that they've had great timing in launching it for the Holidays and the IATA winter, but lets see how it does after Carnaval. Like CO they will get some additional loads with JJ joining *A.

You're right and US-JJ code-share is not in effect now. For sure JJ will bring additional business to US because will be the only Star daily non-stop fligt to the East Coast.
As i use to say here, US better chance in Brazil is Rio as competition uses the same equipment (763 without PTVs) except for JJ flight to JFK which is not daily and CO to IAH, which is not east coast.

Quoting USAirALB (Reply 5):
Im curious to see where you got this information from. You know that the seat maps aren't always a good source, right? According to the seat map, there is 1 open seat in Envoy and 30 seats open in Y.

That is 173/204 with a capacity of 85% at this time. Lets hope you are right.

The info, i got from US Airways in Brazil and probably will be public soon (see some details below). Not only the first flight but also the ones for January are performing very well and above their own expectations.
Furthermore, fares are higher than they expect as they even not required to offer promotional fares to fill it. I'm not using seat maps, i'm using the fact that some days do not even offer Y seats and they wouldn't do that if they have inventory availability: US801 Jan 2 is sold out, Jan 3 only Envoy is available, Jan 4 is sold out, Jan 5 only Envoy... and we go on... Dec 15-23 is also busy on US-Brazil.

It's early to say, and that's why i like to say " advance bookings seems very good "



New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
User currently onlineMAH4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 33195 posts, RR: 71
Reply 8, posted (5 years 5 days 23 hours ago) and read 7193 times:

AA will apply for MIA-BSB, at least as of now. They have said so publicly in Brazil.

Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 7):

The info, i got from US Airways in Brazil and probably will be public soon (see some details below). Not only the first flight but also the ones for January are performing very well and above their own expectations.

Yet the fact remains that US Airways has a pending application with DOT to transfer their frequencies to unrestricted and switch the routing to CLT-GRU.



a.
User currently offlineUSAirALB From United States of America, joined Sep 2007, 3147 posts, RR: 2
Reply 9, posted (5 years 5 days 22 hours ago) and read 7162 times:



Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 7):
The info, i got from US Airways in Brazil and probably will be public soon (see some details below). Not only the first flight but also the ones for January are performing very well and above their own expectations.
Furthermore, fares are higher than they expect as they even not required to offer promotional fares to fill it. I'm not using seat maps, i'm using the fact that some days do not even offer Y seats and they wouldn't do that if they have inventory availability: US801 Jan 2 is sold out, Jan 3 only Envoy is available, Jan 4 is sold out, Jan 5 only Envoy... and we go on... Dec 15-23 is also busy on US-Brazil.

It's early to say, and that's why i like to say " advance bookings seems very good "

Thats good.



E135/E140/E145/E70/E75/E90/CR2/CR7/CR9/717/732/733/734/735/73G/738/739/752/753/762/772/319/320/321/333
User currently offlineLipeGIG From Brazil, joined May 2005, 11458 posts, RR: 58
Reply 10, posted (5 years 5 days 22 hours ago) and read 7109 times:
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Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 8):
Yet the fact remains that US Airways has a pending application with DOT to transfer their frequencies to unrestricted and switch the routing to CLT-GRU.

Lets wait and see Mark. The deal with DL was made before they begin advertise or got approval for the CLT-GIG. My view is that their best chance is Rio, not Sao Paulo, unless they use the A332 and face stronger competition. Sao Paulo O&D is 2x bigger than Rio with last year data, but there's 19 1/2 flights a day to Sao Paulo and just 4 1/2 to Rio. That's my view.



New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
User currently onlineMAH4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 33195 posts, RR: 71
Reply 11, posted (5 years 5 days 22 hours ago) and read 7090 times:



Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 10):
Lets wait and see Mark. The deal with DL was made before they begin advertise or got approval for the CLT-GIG.

But the application was submitted afterward.

Though I'm not even sure that the DL/US deal is going to get approved in the first place, which will save US and GIG, at least for now.



a.
User currently offlineOP3000 From United States of America, joined Jun 2009, 1784 posts, RR: 2
Reply 12, posted (5 years 5 days 19 hours ago) and read 6898 times:



Quoting USAirALB (Reply 5):
DOT saw that US realized that themselves without having DOT tell them to give it up, which is good.

I get your point in terms of PEK, but still they came out of that like an airline which will apply for long-haul routes its not in a position to fly. Add to that they are retracting from Europe more than any of the other US-based legacies.

In the case of Brazil if there are too many applications for the available frequencies (which is usually the case), it would make sense for the DOT not to waste its time giving them to the airline least likely to fly them. Unless they are just applying to shift the GIG frequencies to GRU as Mark says. Which...

Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 10):
My view is that their best chance is Rio, not Sao Paulo, unless they use the A332 and face stronger competition. Sao Paulo O&D is 2x bigger than Rio with last year data, but there's 19 1/2 flights a day to Sao Paulo and just 4 1/2 to Rio.

I agree for those same reasons, and also because GRU is less of a leisure market where product makes more a difference. The A332 would be better, but even then their service still is sub-par compared to the other legacies that have plenty of supply to GRU.

They've advertised GIG very hard for the past four months in the USA (particularly in the CLT and PHL areas) as a leisure destination, and aside from it being ultra-high season that's why bookings are better than expected.

Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 7):
Quoting OP3000 (Reply 4):
I don't see much happening long-haul in VCP until Azul partners with somebody outside of Brazil and/or the bullet train is complete, whichever comes first

But you're not taking into consideration the fact that there's a huge industrial and services cluster full of US corporations around Campinas area as well as people from Campinas like to travel abroad, too.

Yes, I'm aware of the economic importance of the Campinas area. But that rationale can be applied to other economically important population centers that are quite close to very large cities but have little or no long-haul (ex. FLL, SAN, BDL, TRN, YHM). People who live in those places simply can inexpensively drive/take train to the nearby bigger city, therefore preventing an airline from being able to charge a significant premium on fares (while losing the greater catchment area and connection potential of the larger city airport).


User currently onlineMAH4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 33195 posts, RR: 71
Reply 13, posted (5 years 5 days 19 hours ago) and read 6872 times:



Quoting USAirALB (Reply 5):

Well, yes and no. By returning the route to DOT, they llok good in DOTs eyes by saying "we realize that this route would not be profitable at this time". DOT saw that US realized that themselves without having DOT tell them to give it up, which is good. They also have the option to apply for this again, and they will get priority.

I think this is also true for future South America slots they will apply for.

US Airways has close to zero chance of being awarded any frequencies in the next proceedings. US Airways was just awarded them, and DOT rarely awards back-to-back unless not enough airlines are competing.

And there is no way to spin the China problem: it's going to hurt them in the future. You can spin it as US Airways being "mature," but the reality is they were irresponsible.



a.
User currently offlineC010T3 From Brazil, joined Jul 2006, 3728 posts, RR: 19
Reply 14, posted (5 years 5 days 18 hours ago) and read 6696 times:



Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 13):

US Airways has close to zero chance of being awarded any frequencies in the next proceedings. US Airways was just awarded them, and DOT rarely awards back-to-back unless not enough airlines are competing.

You have a good point there, but US Airways has two good points that could persuade the DOT.
- They have the opportunity to enter the GRU market, but wouldn't like to give up the GIG market.
- US still needs scale in order to effectively compete in the Brazilian market.


User currently offlineDCAJet From United States of America, joined Aug 2004, 442 posts, RR: 4
Reply 15, posted (5 years 5 days 15 hours ago) and read 6290 times:



Quoting LAXintl (Reply 1):
Quoting LipeGIG (Thread starter):
What i believe everyone agree is that UA is out of this.

Agreed. Deep South America is not UA's forte.

I don't agree with the above. UA's international strategy is predicated on their premium cabins, namely P & J on ALL long haul international flights - the only US carrier to continue to do so. That really limits the number of destinations the airline can serve profitably. Y is just not their focus.

We also need to keep in mind that with UA out of MIA and for all intents and purposes out of JFK, there is only one UA hub that works for deep South America: IAD. And there are only two destinations in deep South America that can support year round the kind of traffic UA relies on: EZE and GRU; GIG to a lesser degree - even GIG non stop is only seasonal for UA.

UA deploys its planes where it can fly them profitably. So, you will continue to see UA metal in GRU and EZE. Other cities are not their focus. Simple as that.



"Unattended children will be given espresso and a free kitten"
User currently offlineLAXtoATL From United States of America, joined Oct 2009, 1616 posts, RR: 2
Reply 16, posted (5 years 5 days 14 hours ago) and read 6175 times:



Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 7):
Not only the first flight but also the ones for January are performing very well and above their own expectations.
Furthermore, fares are higher than they expect as they even not required to offer promotional fares to fill it. I'm not using seat maps, i'm using the fact that some days do not even offer Y seats and they wouldn't do that if they have inventory availability: US801 Jan 2 is sold out, Jan 3 only Envoy is available, Jan 4 is sold out, Jan 5 only Envoy

A couple flaws with that...

1.) Just because airlines do not offer seats in certain classes does not mean that it is sold out. There are many number of reasons airlines does this. (During holiday travel periods one common reason is to reserve a few seats for the last minute walk-up traveler)
2.) The time period for which you are gathering your data is useless. The Xmas/NewYear time period is a huge travel season to Rio (loads on all airlines will abnormaly high, but this is cheap vacation travel not expensive business fares and no indication of the long term success of the route).

If you really want an idea on how well US early bookings are look at flights from mid January and beyond. (I bet they wont look anything like the first couple of days in January)

As for the fares. US fares to Brazil are far lower than their competitors:

Roundtrip travel from BNA to GIG Jan 18-24:
US lowest fare = $895
DL lowest fare = $2346
AA lowest fare = $1169

Roundtrip travel from CLT to GIG Jan 18-24:
US lowest fare = $1036 (non-stop service)
DL lowest fare = $2178
AA lowest fare = $1170

Roundtrip travel from PHL to GIG Jan 18-24:
US lowest fare = $695 *
DL lowest fare = $2177
AA lowest fare = $1161

Roundtrip business class travel from PHL to GIG Jan 18-24:
US flexible = $7371 *
DL flexible = $7622
AA flexible = $7800

*PHL is a hub for US which gives them increased pricing power over their competitors in that market (and yet their fares to GIG are still lower).


User currently offlineSTT757 From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 16892 posts, RR: 51
Reply 17, posted (5 years 5 days 14 hours ago) and read 6156 times:



Quoting OP3000 (Reply 4):
and EWR is not IAH in terms of energy business traffic.

That said Houston does not have the O&D traffic that New Jersey has to Brazil, huge Brazilian population in New Jersey particularly Newark.



Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
User currently offlineLAXtoATL From United States of America, joined Oct 2009, 1616 posts, RR: 2
Reply 18, posted (5 years 5 days 14 hours ago) and read 6143 times:



Quoting DCAJet (Reply 15):
I don't agree with the above.

You actually do agree with the above. In your response you say so. If you acknowledge there are only two cities in S. America that support UA's strategy, then clearly S. America is NOT UA's forte.


User currently offlineC010T3 From Brazil, joined Jul 2006, 3728 posts, RR: 19
Reply 19, posted (5 years 5 days 14 hours ago) and read 6121 times:

Comparing long established flights with recently launched ones doesn't work. It's bound to have distortions in terms of fares.

Quoting LAXtoATL (Reply 16):

As for the fares. US fares to Brazil are far lower than their competitors:

You're using the prices for US-Brazil, not Brazil-US, which is the largest market in January.

Quoting LAXtoATL (Reply 16):
but this is cheap vacation travel

Vacation in Brazil with this exchange rate is not cheap at all.


User currently offlineJfk777 From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 8457 posts, RR: 7
Reply 20, posted (5 years 5 days 14 hours ago) and read 6065 times:
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Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 3):
And CO also (not to forget US). I see big chances for TAM to run their NYC operations out of EWR, and i can see CO with EWR-GIG in their pipeline. This could lead to Star product with very good coverage: early night / late night out of the two city pairs: New York Area-Sao Paulo / New York Area - Rio de Janeiro, plus a daylight to Sao Paulo.

While there may seem to be a logic to having TAM move their JFK operations to EWR, the Star Alliance would be better to mainatin a presence at both for Brazil service. Continental can represent them at EWR and TAM at JFK.

The Star alliance has a weak presence at JFK with TAM staying there that presence is represented. Lufthansa is the primary Star Airline at JFK.


User currently offlineLAXtoATL From United States of America, joined Oct 2009, 1616 posts, RR: 2
Reply 21, posted (5 years 5 days 13 hours ago) and read 6037 times:



Quoting C010T3 (Reply 19):
Comparing long established flights with recently launched ones doesn't work. It's bound to have distortions in terms of fares.

The poster I was responding to said that US fares were higher than they expected, so much so they didn't have to offer promotional discounts. If the fares are not discounted as part of a promotional launch period then there is no distortion and the comparison is legit.

Quoting C010T3 (Reply 19):
You're using the prices for US-Brazil, not Brazil-US, which is the largest market in January.

What difference does is make? The prices are all relative. Are you suggesting that somehow US has stronger pricing power in Brazil? I highly doubt that. But if I am wrong, please post the relevant fares.

Quoting C010T3 (Reply 19):
Vacation in Brazil with this exchange rate is not cheap at all.

The exchange rate is irrelevant. Total cost of the trip to the traveler is meaningless to the airline's bottom line, what the pax spends while on vacation in Brazil is meaningless. Vacation travel means pax are filling up the cheap seats in the back of the plane not the expensive business class seats up front (or even the more expensive flexible economy fares). When discussion airline revenues - vacation travel anywhere in the world is considered cheap to the airlines.


User currently offlineDCAjet From United States of America, joined Aug 2004, 442 posts, RR: 4
Reply 22, posted (5 years 5 days 13 hours ago) and read 6013 times:

Quoting LAXtoATL (Reply 18):
Quoting DCAJet (Reply 15):
I don't agree with the above.

You actually do agree with the above. In your response you say so. If you acknowledge there are only two cities in S. America that support UA's strategy, then clearly S. America is NOT UA's forte.

The statement I do not agree with is:

Quoting DCAJet (Reply 15):
Quoting LipeGIG (Thread starter):
What i believe everyone agree is that UA is out of this.

Better?

[Edited 2009-11-22 06:50:12]


"Unattended children will be given espresso and a free kitten"
User currently offlineC010T3 From Brazil, joined Jul 2006, 3728 posts, RR: 19
Reply 23, posted (5 years 5 days 12 hours ago) and read 5687 times:



Quoting LAXtoATL (Reply 21):
The exchange rate is irrelevant. Total cost of the trip to the traveler is meaningless to the airline's bottom line, what the pax spends while on vacation in Brazil is meaningless. Vacation travel means pax are filling up the cheap seats in the back of the plane not the expensive business class seats up front (or even the more expensive flexible economy fares). When discussion airline revenues - vacation travel anywhere in the world is considered cheap to the airlines.

The exchange rate is relevant, since the quantity of US-vacationers in Brazil is pretty small, so the fares are low in order to attract these passenrgers to begin with.

Quoting LAXtoATL (Reply 21):
The poster I was responding to said that US fares were higher than they expected, so much so they didn't have to offer promotional discounts. If the fares are not discounted as part of a promotional launch period then there is no distortion and the comparison is legit.

That's when flying Brazil-US-Brazil.


User currently offlineLAXtoATL From United States of America, joined Oct 2009, 1616 posts, RR: 2
Reply 24, posted (5 years 5 days 11 hours ago) and read 5597 times:



Quoting C010T3 (Reply 23):
The exchange rate is relevant, since the quantity of US-vacationers in Brazil is pretty small, so the fares are low in order to attract these passenrgers to begin with.

Once again, since the fares are comparable amongst the airlines involved you have no point. US fares on Brazil flights to and from Brazil are significantly below their competitors. The same exchange rate applies to the other airlines and their passengers as well. Do you really not understand how the airline business works or do you just want to be confrontational?

Quoting C010T3 (Reply 23):

That's when flying Brazil-US-Brazil.

Oh really? Then why don't you post the fares for Brazil-US-Brazil? One of two things is going on here...
1.) You haven't look at the fares at all and you are ignorantly talking about something you have no clue about.
OR
2.) You have looked at the fares and since you know that US fares (even originating in Brazil) are below their competitors just like I said and you want to ignore the data.


25 LipeGIG : You're 100% correct with your analysis. Just think about the fact that FLL, SAN, BDL and others here in the United States you don't have restrictions
26 LipeGIG : Good numbers. Just remember: US is available for sale for 4-5 months, DL and AA inventory has been open for sale for 10-11 months. DL when they launc
27 LAXtoATL : I understand this. But when you brought US fares you said that they were so pleased with the fares they were getting that they didn't have to offer p
28 C010T3 : Since US has a significantly smaller premium cabin than the others, US depends more on Y than the others, so if it is identifying low demand for tour
29 USAirALB : Yes, but be aware, even after all the reductions, US will still fly to more places in Europe than AA and UA. I'd say the A332 is light-years away fro
30 C010T3 : Again, you're overestimating the quantity of US visitors in Rio, not to mention the fact that you're totally ignoring the connecting traffic beyond G
31 LipeGIG : Yes i said that. But let me give you some data. AA, JJ, DL, UA all have sold C for US$ 1,100/1,500 R/T and Y for US$ 450 R/T. This is promotional far
32 LipeGIG : Even compared to the 772 ? In my view AA 772 is a very good product and only US 763 and JJ A332 are in pair with. You're correct when compared to AA
33 LAXtoATL : O.K. this proves you have no clue what you are talking about! If US is more dependent on Y, then they need their Y fares to be higher than others to
34 Brandonfsu05 : I say good job to US for trying something new...I mean should they just sit back indefinitely and not try to do other things. At the end of the day a
35 LAXtoATL : You brought the fares into the discussion as an indicator of how well their advanced bookings were. Whether the fares are promotional or not, the poi
36 LAXtoATL : I am aware of the size of CLT, but it still is at a competitive disadvantage both in regards to O&D and connectivity compared their competition. That
37 C010T3 : That's not a good strategy considering that they are a new player. Their fares must be competitive in order to attract more passengers to try their s
38 LAXtoATL : You have responded with plenty of words, which I will not read. You have failed yet again to provide any hard data on US Airways fares originating on
39 C010T3 : Well, be my guest. You haven't provided me with a source for your data, so it's not like I'm going to meticulously collect data in order to prove you
40 LAXtoATL : LOL! The legitimacy of my data has not been challengened by anybody. The difference between you and me is that I actually looked up the information b
41 C010T3 : Well, you have started discussing this subject what? Yesterday? I have been following US' development for months. I have looked up the information, bu
42 LAXtoATL : The bottom line is you are still admitting you do not know what US Airways fares are currently, and thus you do not know what you are talking about.
43 DCAjet : Hi Lipe... I am afraid that UA will never put a dedicated 777 to GIG alone. Traffic is just not there, except for peak periods like December-January.
44 USFlyer MSP : Does anythink that NK while apply again? Maybe for FLL-FOR, MAO, or BEL?
45 LipeGIG : DCAjet, they can put a smaller 763 as well as another one to GRU. The IAD O&D to Brazil is not different, Rio or Sao Paulo will have the same traffic
46 LAXtoATL : As I said I agree that the codeshare would have to help, but I just don't foresee a huge lift to US traffic from Brazil. Currently, TAM flies non-sto
47 Incitatus : Last time around DL asked for ATL-GIG. Have they run out of opportunities to add in Brazil beyond ATL-GRU/GIG?
48 OA412 : They asked for ATL-GIG in order to free the unrestricted frequencies currently being use on ATL-GIG. It's doubtful they were actually planning on ope
49 Post contains images Jetlanta : For example: Sorry. I couldn't resist. But that is a silly comment in this environment. UA deploys its aircraft in plenty of unprofitable markets. Or
50 USAirALB : Yes, its HIGHLY unlikely
51 LAXtoATL : That was funny.
52 LipeGIG : Agree 100% Agree also. I use to heard comments like AA, UA and other deploy planes to profitable destinations but this is not the result in the end.
53 OA412 : Exactly. All airlines have some routes that are unprofitable but they continue to fly them for a vareity of reasons. For example, it was reported on
54 FutureUScapt : That they desire to get into GRU, the largest market in South America, says nothing about their satisfaction or dissatisfaction with the performance
55 MAH4546 : So what? AA carries about the same amount of traffic to London and Paris only than US Airways does to all of Europe combined. True. But by the time t
56 Cubsrule : I'd be curious to see what would happen if the DL/US deal itself did not require US to use the slots to GRU (and, AFAIK, there has been no public sta
57 Incitatus : Should we expect DL is going to put in a similar application? I cannot think of any other route outside GRU they would apply for. Even JFK-GIG is a f
58 LAXtoATL : No doubt that ATL is at a severe disadvantage compared to MIA as far as O&D for South America traffic. However, I do not believe it is at a disadvant
59 Cubsrule : There are very few connections to Star carriers available at either MIA or JFK - so a passenger who wants to get JJ miles and one connection to, for
60 Incitatus : I realize you made the comment in the context of the Brazil-USA market, but connections in the US do attract more passengers than those within the Br
61 LAXtoATL : gotcha. (thanks for re-wording it so I could understand) good point. I will admit I didn't really think of that. However, I think the premise remains
62 USAirALB : And look at CO! They are just getting flat bed seats now!
63 OA412 : I would say that if DL decides to apply for frequencies in this next round, they will be contingent upon the outcome of the US/DL slot swap deal. Rem
64 LipeGIG : Agree with you. I only will put the possibility of DL asking for more ATL-BSB. AA will always have to fight with the fact they are the biggest player
65 COFanNYC : While price is one indicator of advance bookings, you can't really say that US isn't getting the yields other airlines are unless you're privy to the
66 LAXtoATL : I understand all of this. If you read all my posts, you will even see I said that given the available information no one can say whether this route i
67 Incitatus : You may be right, but have you ever considered that when it comes to Rio you are extremely optimistic? There are multiple other factors that you fail
68 C010T3 : There are still enough connecting opportunities to all those destinations.
69 Incitatus : That depends on how one counts it - within 24+ hours with daily flights there are always enough connection opportunities... Even looking at JJ-to-JJ
70 C010T3 : There is no need to be sarcastic. Not all combinations work every time, but they are sufficient for now.
71 LipeGIG : Yes, and still, i use to say what happens. I keep saying that Rio is just under served which makes easy my comments. Specially the days there's no no
72 Incitatus : My statement is in the context that any airport that has a lot of flights gets a benefit from connectivity when more flights are added. Even ATL! If
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