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Airbus/Boeing Orders And Deliveries 2009 Outlook?  
User currently offlineA380900 From France, joined Dec 2003, 1116 posts, RR: 1
Posted (4 years 10 months 1 week 1 day ago) and read 5343 times:

How does it look like? Surprise the subject did not come up often on the forum this year (or so it seems). The crisis is not impacting A&B as much as one could have thought.

So what's up for 2009? Another home run for Airbus? Orders and deliveries>Boeing ?

[Edited 2009-11-28 15:18:54]

14 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently offlineAircellist From Canada, joined Oct 2004, 1720 posts, RR: 8
Reply 1, posted (4 years 10 months 1 week 4 hours ago) and read 5001 times:

The crisis is impacting A and B indeed. Maybe not yet on the delivery side, or at least not as hard as on the order side, but...

Look: recently , we had WINGS' thread about the A330 selling 100+ copies in one year! This year, how many threads have we seen about A or B selling planes? So few! I doubt whether A and B combined will sell as many aircraft net as only one of them will deliver...

Of course, A is expert at pulling a few rabbits from its hat at the end of the year... Yet, not much optimism here.


User currently offlineCobra27 From Slovenia, joined May 2001, 1016 posts, RR: 0
Reply 2, posted (4 years 10 months 1 week 3 hours ago) and read 4869 times:

Yes though year, I think Boeing cancellations are worth more than new orders. But backlog is huge- so no worries

User currently onlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 31060 posts, RR: 87
Reply 3, posted (4 years 10 months 1 week 3 hours ago) and read 4821 times:
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Through last month:

Boeing's gross orders were 202, net orders were 91 and deliveries were 394.

Airbus was at 151 gross orders and 399 deliveries.


User currently offlineMMEPHX From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 4, posted (4 years 10 months 1 week 2 hours ago) and read 4726 times:



Quoting Stitch (Reply 3):
Boeing's gross orders were 202, net orders were 91 and deliveries were 394.

Airbus was at 151 gross orders and 399 deliveries.

Airbus net through Oct 31 stands at 123 for 2009.

Tough sales year for both but plenty of backlog for both though.


User currently offlineScbriml From United Kingdom, joined Jul 2003, 12573 posts, RR: 46
Reply 5, posted (4 years 10 months 1 week 1 hour ago) and read 4700 times:
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It's no surprise that orders are well down on the recent boom years.

While 2009 deliveries have held up for both Airbus and Boeing, there are plenty of analysts saying that 2010 and 2011 will be much tougher years. Since I personally don't think most aviation analysts are worth the paper their opinions are printed on, I shall wait and see how things go.



Time flies like an arrow, but fruit flies like a banana!
User currently offlineThorben From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 6, posted (4 years 10 months 1 week 1 hour ago) and read 4652 times:



Quoting A380900 (Thread starter):
The crisis is not impacting A&B as much as one could have thought.

I believe it had a terrible impact on them. They have only some 10% of the net orders they had in some boom years plus a lot of cancellations and deferrals.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 3):
Through last month:

Boeing's gross orders were 202, net orders were 91 and deliveries were 394.

Airbus was at 151 gross orders and 399 deliveries.



Quoting Stitch (Reply 3):
Airbus net through Oct 31 stands at 123 for 2009.

Tough sales year for both but plenty of backlog for both though.

It was always clear that they couldn't continue selling three times their annual production and building up huge backlogs. However, I need to question the general rationality of the order behavior, when it goes down from 1,204 (gross?) in 2007 to 123 in 2009 for Airbus and similar for Boeing.

Quoting Scbriml (Reply 5):
Since I personally don't think most aviation analysts are worth the paper their opinions are printed on, I shall wait and see how things go.

Rather the economic analysts. 123 resp. 91 net orders so far, how much worse can it get? Crisis or not, some countries are booming and need new airplanes. Plus replacement of older and inefficient planes will be necessary and we might really see a 200+ order of FR, taking advantage of the situation. Besides, several decisions (AF/KL, LH, IB A350 or B787) are due sooner or later. I conclude 2010 might be better than 2009, although I expect both companies to reduce their backlog that year.


User currently offlineAesma From France, joined Nov 2009, 6690 posts, RR: 12
Reply 7, posted (4 years 10 months 6 days 19 hours ago) and read 4479 times:



Quoting Thorben (Reply 6):
It was always clear that they couldn't continue selling three times their annual production and building up huge backlogs. However, I need to question the general rationality of the order behavior, when it goes down from 1,204 (gross?) in 2007 to 123 in 2009 for Airbus and similar for Boeing.

I was happy seeing Airbus win those "battles", but I always thought the numbers were insane. A tough return to reality, but a needed one imho.

I wonder if the sales teams try to sell at any price or if they're just waiting for better days.



New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
User currently offlineThegeek From Australia, joined Nov 2007, 2638 posts, RR: 0
Reply 8, posted (4 years 10 months 6 days 17 hours ago) and read 4420 times:

The part that's a little surprising is that in some cases A & B have had trouble getting airlines to accept delivery of aircraft, even while the order queue is supposedly 5 years long, even to the degree that (I believe) production slowdowns are being considered. It's a little ironic. I wonder if it would be worth building then parking aircraft to be taken up when things get better???

User currently offlineA380900 From France, joined Dec 2003, 1116 posts, RR: 1
Reply 9, posted (4 years 10 months 6 days 14 hours ago) and read 4248 times:

I did not know orders fell so low. Here's the reason why there are so few threads!

Quoting Thegeek (Reply 8):
A & B have had trouble getting airlines to accept delivery of aircraft, even while the order queue is supposedly 5 years long, even to the degree that (I believe) production slowdowns are being considered. It's a little ironic

So these backlogs are mostly illusory or so it seems. When the time comes to take deliveries, airlines balk.

When you see how exhuberant the economy has been, you have to wonder: how many of these orders were "paper orders" with bankrupt companies not even able to pay penalties for having order too much metal? Aren't all these orders just phony accounting of a new sort?


User currently offlineScouseflyer From United Kingdom, joined Apr 2006, 3395 posts, RR: 9
Reply 10, posted (4 years 10 months 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 4079 times:



Quoting A380900 (Reply 9):
When you see how exhuberant the economy has been, you have to wonder: how many of these orders were "paper orders" with bankrupt companies not even able to pay penalties for having order too much metal? Aren't all these orders just phony accounting of a new sort?

I don't think that it's quite phoney accounting but I do think that airlines have placed orders based on being able to acheive finance at X% which in many cases is now X+5% which may mean that business cases no longer work. I do wonder whether it's possible for airlines to indefinitely defer deliveries or if they have to cancel at some point as the order will be sitting as a liability on balance sheets?


User currently offlineBurkhard From Germany, joined Nov 2006, 4398 posts, RR: 2
Reply 11, posted (4 years 10 months 6 days 12 hours ago) and read 4022 times:



Quoting Aesma (Reply 7):
I wonder if the sales teams try to sell at any price or if they're just waiting for better days.

MoL knows the answer to this question, and he says they are waiting for better days. I still don't get it why the banking industry, which gets money for less than 1% annual now, does not give it away for 3 or 4% with first calss warranties. A new 77W or A332 is worth its money, and prices of 3 year old well maintained birds are predictable within very few percent - but airlines are treated worse than companies that take credits for toxic papers.

I think the banking industry must be got under very tight state control, or the airline industry will suffer under the wrong concept of private banks more than other branches.


User currently offlineFlynorth From Sweden, joined Mar 2008, 126 posts, RR: 0
Reply 12, posted (4 years 10 months 6 days 11 hours ago) and read 3896 times:



Quoting Thorben (Reply 6):
It was always clear that they couldn't continue selling three times their annual production and building up huge backlogs.

 checkmark 

What I think we need to understand about this industry is that orders and deliveries to some extent are two separate issues to deal with. In good years, A & B build up big backlogs to be able to cope with the bad years. Hopefully the backlog is big enough to cope with this crisis.

So right now I expect the market for new orders will be quite slow for some time, maybe a few years. The production still seem to be (somewhat) on full speed for both manufacturers.

In a few years that might have changed. Orders slowly starts to pick up again, but maybe not to be able to produce at the same capacity they are doing now. So then the production is hurting due to short backlog and maybe also because of overcapacity in the market from new airplanes without anyone to operate them after the buying airline gone bankrupt --> it will be easy to get almost new second hand planes at good prices.

Production planning in the industry must be a nightmare to deal with, trying to predict what will happen at a certain date many years ahead. Add to that in a market that is very unstable.


User currently onlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 31060 posts, RR: 87
Reply 13, posted (4 years 10 months 6 days 7 hours ago) and read 3668 times:
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Quoting A380900 (Reply 9):
So these backlogs are mostly illusory or so it seems. When the time comes to take deliveries, airlines balk.

Not really. Only for models with very low backlogs (777F, A340) have we seen aircraft parked for a few months because there are so few customers that they can't find new homes. And yet they still seem to be ending up with their customers in the end (the 777Fs are coming out of storage for delivery and I believe some of the A340s are also being prepared for customer delivery).

For families with large backlogs - like the 737 and A320 - production rates are remaining unchanged because the backlogs are so deep, both Boeing and Airbus can find customers ready to take planes.


User currently offlineThorben From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 14, posted (4 years 10 months 6 days 1 hour ago) and read 3529 times:



Quoting Aesma (Reply 7):
I was happy seeing Airbus win those "battles", but I always thought the numbers were insane. A tough return to reality, but a needed one imho.

Considering how high those numbers were, I wouldn't speak of "winning". Second place with 1,000+ orders is still not bad. Especially compared to today's situation.

Quoting Thegeek (Reply 8):
I wonder if it would be worth building then parking aircraft to be taken up when things get better???

Rather not. I guess A & B do what they can to avoid this. A parked aircraft means that they have to pay their suppliers and workers, have expenses for the aircraft sitting around, but do not have the revenue they need to pay for this. That is a huge financial burden and delivering a plane 1-2 years after it is built might indeed destroy all its the profitability.

Quoting A380900 (Reply 9):
So these backlogs are mostly illusory or so it seems. When the time comes to take deliveries, airlines balk.

When you see how exhuberant the economy has been, you have to wonder: how many of these orders were "paper orders" with bankrupt companies not even able to pay penalties for having order too much metal? Aren't all these orders just phony accounting of a new sort?

Not paper orders. I believe that when you accept deferrals, at least 95% of the backlog is going to end up where it was supposed to end up. The rest will find a home with new customers. I'd worry mostly about the massive orders from not so developed countries, some of them might have been a bit too optimistic.

Quoting Flynorth (Reply 12):
What I think we need to understand about this industry is that orders and deliveries to some extent are two separate issues to deal with. In good years, A & B build up big backlogs to be able to cope with the bad years. Hopefully the backlog is big enough to cope with this crisis.

So right now I expect the market for new orders will be quite slow for some time, maybe a few years. The production still seem to be (somewhat) on full speed for both manufacturers.

In a few years that might have changed. Orders slowly starts to pick up again, but maybe not to be able to produce at the same capacity they are doing now. So then the production is hurting due to short backlog and maybe also because of overcapacity in the market from new airplanes without anyone to operate them after the buying airline gone bankrupt --> it will be easy to get almost new second hand planes at good prices.

Production planning in the industry must be a nightmare to deal with, trying to predict what will happen at a certain date many years ahead. Add to that in a market that is very unstable.

A problem for most manufacturers is that they can't anticiate their demand too good and need a long time to adjust their production. I guess A & B need to find out the average number of plane orders from boom and recession years and have to adjust the production to be somewhere near that average.

Quoting Aesma (Reply 7):
I wonder if the sales teams try to sell at any price or if they're just waiting for better days.

No need to sell at any price currently. There is enough backlog and they can calculate what price is needed for a sale, because lowering the production would be even more expensive.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 13):
For families with large backlogs - like the 737 and A320 - production rates are remaining unchanged because the backlogs are so deep, both Boeing and Airbus can find customers ready to take planes.

IIRC Airbus intended to raise the A32X production from 36 to 40 a month, but now reduced it to 34.
http://www.airbus.com/en/presscentre...2_19_revised_production_rates.html

These aircraft families are effected by the situation as well. Remember all those 50+ orders of narrowbodies from start-ups in rather poor countries? I doubt they can absorb everything they wanted. At least not at the planned speed, maybe with years and years of delay.


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