Terryb99 From United States of America, joined Sep 2004, 291 posts, RR: 0 Posted (3 years 5 months 3 weeks 1 day 12 hours ago) and read 4571 times:
My Wife, who is Korean, was watching her Korean Channel news. At the bottom, along side the "SK government to train NK defectors to farm" was one that caught my eye,
"SK government to consider building a commercial jet"
I know of KAI, and they have built an excellent fighter trainer. And Korean Air is a very important sub-contractor for Boeing, in addition to their extensive military experience.
DocLightning From United States of America, joined Nov 2005, 16812 posts, RR: 57 Reply 1, posted (3 years 5 months 3 weeks 1 day 11 hours ago) and read 4516 times:
So now we have China (which nobody but the Chinese is buying), Japan, Brazil, Russia, and Canada in the market. Am I missing anyone?
Now, SK is a great country that has shown over the past few decades that they are capable of great things. I have no doubt that they can design and build a very impressive aircraft.
The problem is exactly what you asked: is there room? I don't think there is. Had they started this project three years ago, there might have been, but I think they missed the boat on this round.
Flighty From United States of America, joined Apr 2007, 7435 posts, RR: 2 Reply 2, posted (3 years 5 months 3 weeks 1 day 11 hours ago) and read 4486 times:
Ikramerica From United States of America, joined May 2005, 21026 posts, RR: 60 Reply 3, posted (3 years 5 months 3 weeks 1 day 11 hours ago) and read 4480 times:
Quoting DocLightning (Reply 1): The problem is exactly what you asked: is there room? I don't think there is. Had they started this project three years ago, there might have been, but I think they missed the boat on this round.
And do we want a government building a commercial jet? It distorts the market...
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
TSS From United States of America, joined Dec 2006, 2870 posts, RR: 5 Reply 4, posted (3 years 5 months 3 weeks 1 day 11 hours ago) and read 4377 times:
Quoting Flighty (Reply 2): Quoting DocLightning (Reply 1):
is there room? I don't think there is.
The Koreans know how to make room. There wasn't room in the car market either, but they are conquering a lot of the market right now.
Quite true.
Also, I can't help but think that a 90-seat regional jet might be a good way for an emerging commercial aircraft company to "get it's feet wet" in the market and get some practical experience in building, selling, and supporting commercial jets before moving on to larger designs.
I'm sure I'll be corrected if I'm wrong, but I've gotten the impression on here and elsewhere that most regional jets are relatively simple, straightforward designs, at least in comparison with widebody aircraft, and that their small size and stated mission in life dictates a limited number of design choices that have to be made with regard to layout, equipment, and amenities.
Quoting Flighty (Reply 2): Korea has the right qualities to design aircraft. They should build bizjets and then see what happens. They are on the way up.
Hmmm...
While building bizjets and commercial airliners aren't mutually exclusive disciplines, I'd tend to think that the market demands of private bizjet owners and commercial airlines are quite different. I'm reminded of the "water pump" analogy I read years ago, which compared the difference between designing a water pump for a Rolls-Royce to designing one for a Chevrolet- basically it said that a water pump is much easier to design for a Rolls-Royce because cost is almost no object and production numbers are very low so premium materials and hand-finishing are acceptable, whereas a Chevrolet water pump must be made as cheaply as possible AND be able to be cranked out by the millions with as little variance from unit to unit as is possible, but both water pumps expected to last a minimum of 100,000 miles.
Able to kill active threads stone dead with a single post!
HeeseokKoo From South Korea, joined Jan 2005, 521 posts, RR: 1 Reply 5, posted (3 years 5 months 3 weeks 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 4345 times:
We've seen this a couple of times for the last decade. Somehow for some reasons, Korean government tries to make commercial plane, starts with 200 seater or something. I used to get excited because I'm in this field (aerospace engineering). And then some pressure (or expected pressure) from US government forces to reduce size of plane to 100 seater or so. Then some say that's not making sense in economic way, they change the size again, and at some point, budget problem or other reason (no market or so), they stop. It has happened a few times, and I'm sick of it. They might have enough technology or they can purchase some part from other countries, so technically they can do, but politically they cannot do anything. It's just too complicated being between north Korea and US. I would ignore this time.
DocLightning From United States of America, joined Nov 2005, 16812 posts, RR: 57 Reply 6, posted (3 years 5 months 3 weeks 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 4329 times:
Quoting Flighty (Reply 2):
The Koreans know how to make room. There wasn't room in the car market either, but they are conquering a lot of the market right now.
OK. Cars are consumer-level products that aren't ruled by the same labrynthine rules of depreciation and cost cycles that airliners are. I maintain that the market isn't large enough for all these players.
Maybe SK will nudge someone else, but I don't think there is room in the market for everyone. And they are the latecomers.
As I asked there though, where would the market for this aircraft be? The smallest aircraft operating for a Korean airline is the Q400, which Jeju Air have a handfull of, otherwise it is 737/A320 sized aircraft upwards. Is there demand for a 90-seater in Korea, or would it be wholly dependent on export orders? It would certainly be a tough market with the number of competitors...
V/F
"So powerful is the light of unity that it can illuminate the whole earth." - Bahá'u'lláh
Articulatexpat From Hong Kong, joined Sep 2006, 155 posts, RR: 1 Reply 8, posted (3 years 5 months 3 weeks 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 4072 times:
This is a cool development, although as others pointed out, there are already a number of RJs on the market (or soon to be). A thought: if you look at the domestic route maps of the Korean carriers, they're generally north-south, following the geography of the country. For those not familiar, it's about the size of Indiana. Then there's Jeju Island off to the south. Most of the major cities follow a rough north-south axis, but within the country, so do the great majority of the train lines. There's a dense network of coach routes, and these are cheap, comfortable, and deservedly popular. However, despite Korea's compact size, it's a mountainous country; it may take a long time to make an east-west journey. While I lived there, I noticed that there's a widespread mistrust of Chinese-made products. I can't see Koreans thronging to fly on an airline with a fleet of Chinese aircraft. However, a domestic product might work on these routes where there aren't great transit options. Airports for smaller cities like Gunsan and Yangyang might not be able to sustain mainline flights, but RJs might work. (Granted, it would be years before such a plane could begin commercial service. Still, I don't see that current situation changing much.) If anyone in Korea sees it differently, I'm curious to hear other viewpoints.
Flighty From United States of America, joined Apr 2007, 7435 posts, RR: 2 Reply 9, posted (3 years 5 months 3 weeks 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 4008 times:
Quoting DocLightning (Reply 6): I maintain that the market isn't large enough for all these players.
I agree with you. The question is who will survive. Korea is good at that. Especially regarding R&D and the highest technology activity. If they want into this market, (like you say, why would they), but if they do, the credibility there is solid.
DocLightning From United States of America, joined Nov 2005, 16812 posts, RR: 57 Reply 10, posted (3 years 5 months 3 weeks 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 3966 times:
Quoting Flighty (Reply 9):
I agree with you. The question is who will survive. Korea is good at that. Especially regarding R&D and the highest technology activity. If they want into this market, (like you say, why would they), but if they do, the credibility there is solid.
Burkhard From Germany, joined Nov 2006, 4248 posts, RR: 2 Reply 11, posted (3 years 5 months 3 weeks 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 3856 times:
They better team up with another player in that field. There should be no politcal problem with Embraer. So a joint company from Korean and Embraer, with Embraer experience and Koreas money, with a good way to share the work load, could be a serious player on the market.
AirbusA6 From United Kingdom, joined Apr 2005, 1906 posts, RR: 0 Reply 12, posted (3 years 5 months 3 weeks 1 day ago) and read 3795 times:
Everyone wants to build RJs, but who's going to buy them? Korea has hardly got a significant domestic market, and with Japanese and Chinese competition, Asia is already very crowded. Embraer and Bombardier are not going to give their market away either.
Korea certainly could do it though, their dominance in shipping shows their capabilities.
The real gap is in the turboprop market, but I guess this isn't glamorous enough, would politicians want to attend the launch of a 30 seater turboprop?
it's the bus to stansted (now renamed national express a4 to ruin my username)
TISTPAA727 From United States of America, joined May 2007, 306 posts, RR: 2 Reply 13, posted (3 years 5 months 3 weeks 16 hours ago) and read 2930 times:
I am not sure the market is big enough for yet another manufacturer as is stated above and I do not believe the argument that SK has created a market for cars works. The automobile industry has many, many market segments and geographies to focus on that a new entrant is able to gain some share at the minimal expense of others (spread out, not as a whole). SK has done a great job of this and it is evidenced by what is driving on the roadways.
The aircraft industry has a limited number of market segments in which to expand. To create share you have to significantly take from a small handful of competitors. This leads to a price war since many of these new entrants will have aircraft in the same mission profile. Add to that some of them are government backed and it spells trouble in my book.
JHCRJ700 From United States of America, joined Oct 2009, 377 posts, RR: 0 Reply 14, posted (3 years 5 months 3 weeks 16 hours ago) and read 2739 times:
Just curious, how many orders (if any) have been placed for the Japanese and Russian RJ's?
Flighty From United States of America, joined Apr 2007, 7435 posts, RR: 2 Reply 15, posted (3 years 5 months 3 weeks 15 hours ago) and read 2630 times:
Quoting TISTPAA727 (Reply 13): The aircraft industry has a limited number of market segments in which to expand. To create share you have to significantly take from a small handful of competitors. This leads to a price war since many of these new entrants will have aircraft in the same mission profile. Add to that some of them are government backed and it spells trouble in my book.
It spells trouble for those competing with Korea, yes. (Think of LCD televisions, compact cars, flash memory, phones, bridges, shipbuilding). Korea thrives in those markets where it can use high technology (and price wars) to compete.
Airliners are not a very logical play for them. But, I can't emphasize it enough, they have the technology to do anything they want.
Sponsor Message: 
From United States of America, joined Sep 2004, 291 posts, 
From South Korea, joined Jan 2005, 521 posts, 
From New Zealand, joined Sep 2000, 4502 posts, 
From Hong Kong, joined Sep 2006, 155 posts, 
From Germany, joined Nov 2006, 4248 posts, 
From United Kingdom, joined Apr 2005, 1906 posts, 
Printer friendly format 
