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US-Brazil Traffic Numbers JUN/2009  
User currently offlineLipeGIG From Brazil, joined May 2005, 11451 posts, RR: 58
Posted (4 years 10 months 2 weeks 4 days 10 hours ago) and read 4202 times:
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Interesting to see how traffic is growing slowly during the past months. June shows better numbers but still with some routes not performing so well:

Load factor

a) 27 routes above 70%
b) just 2 routes under 50%

1- DL ATL-GIG - 93.6%
2- DL ATL-GRU - 93.0%
3- CO IAH-GRU-GIG - 89.3%
4- CO EWR-GRU - 87.9%
5- JJ MIA-GRU - 87.1%
6- CO GIG-GRU-IAH - 85.1%
7- CO GRU-EWR - 84.7%
8- DL GIG-ATL - 84.3%
9- UA ORD-GRU - 83.3%
10- JJ JFK-GRU - 82.7%
11- AA GIG-GRU-JFK - 82.1%
12- UA IAD-GRU-GIG - 81.8%
13- JJ MIA-GIG - 81.4%
14- AA JFK-GRU-GIG - 81.2%
15- DL GRU-ATL 79.7%
16- DL ATL-REC 79.3%
17- AA MIA-CNF 78.4%
18- UA GIG-GRU-IAD - 77.7%
19- UA GRU-ORD - 77.3%
20- JJ GRU-MIA 76.2%
21- AA GIG-MIA 76.1%
22- AA GRU-DFW 75.8%
23- JJ JFK-GIG 75.1%
24- AA MIA-GIG 74.6%
25- JJ MCO-GRU - 73.8%
26- AA DFW-GRU 73.1%
27- DL JFK-GRU 72.4%

Under 50%

JL JFK-GRU 43.9%
KE GRU-LAX 44.9%

New Operations that begin in 2008

TAM

GIG-JFK - 66.6%
JFK-GIG - 75.1%

GIG-MIA - 60.6%
MIA-GIG - 81.4%

GRU-MCO - 62.8%
MCO-GRU - 73.8%

American

MIA-SSA-REC - 65.9%
SSA-REC-MIA - 62.0%

MIA-CNF - 78.4%
CNF-MIA - 61.1%

Delta

ATL-MAO - 65.7%
MAO-ATL - 57.5%

ATL-REC-FOR - 79.3%
REC-FOR-ATL - 66.8%



The best ? Continental for sure, with an average higher than 85% and United with around 80%.

Market share:

American Airlines - 33.2%
TAM - 29.8%
Delta - 15.7%
Continental - 9.2% (this position will not change again)
United - 9.1%
JAL - 1.6%
Korean - 1.5%


New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
43 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineDirectorguy From Egypt, joined Jul 2008, 1697 posts, RR: 11
Reply 1, posted (4 years 10 months 2 weeks 4 days 6 hours ago) and read 4136 times:

Interesting numbers-however I think that DL leads the market in terms of marketshare.
Surprised to see that JL's flying a longhaul route with such a load factor. Wonder how long it will last.


User currently offlineOP3000 From United States of America, joined Jun 2009, 1775 posts, RR: 2
Reply 2, posted (4 years 10 months 2 weeks 4 days 6 hours ago) and read 4127 times:

Overall DL did better than I expected. AA is maintaining decent load factors, despite more supply from them on new routes and from competitors on their existing services to GRU and GIG. Same can be said about JJ, although the MIA-MAO numbers are not there. Next year should be just as good for CO on these routes given the upcoming partnership with JJ.

Quoting Directorguy (Reply 1):
Surprised to see that JL's flying a longhaul route with such a load factor. Wonder how long it will last.

They already have announced that JFK-GRU will be no more.


User currently offlineS4popo From United States of America, joined Nov 2008, 264 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (4 years 10 months 2 weeks 4 days 2 hours ago) and read 4042 times:



Quoting Directorguy (Reply 1):
Interesting numbers-however I think that DL leads the market in terms of marketshare.

How can you make such a statement when the numbers above indicate otherwise?


User currently offlineWorldTraveler From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 4, posted (4 years 10 months 2 weeks 4 days 2 hours ago) and read 4030 times:

apparently this is not a full list? I do not see MIA-GRU on AA or vv... the largest single capacity route by a US carrier to Latin America.

Once again, we see DL's ATL-GRU and ATL-GIG roundtrips as the strongest routes in LF between the US and Brazil.

All of the new NE Brazil routes did fairly well also, including ATL-MAO. It appears that there is demand for the NE Brazil routes but demand is still highly seasonal.

The KE and JL tags to GRU are clearly the weakest performing routes. I am sure that if the US and Brazil ever get Open Skies and the Asian carriers could revenue share on these routes, there would be every incentive for them to allow their US partners to operate the flights between the US and Brazil. The growth of other Asian options to GRU - including EK - is making it very hard for KE and JL to compete, esp. since they have to deal w/ the visa issue on their flights that stop in the US.


User currently offlineSRT75 From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 260 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (4 years 10 months 2 weeks 4 days 2 hours ago) and read 4029 times:

Dissapointing to see that LAX-Brazil seems to be such a weak market. I was hoping that KE's restoration of non-stop service was a sign that Brazil-Southern California was a viable market.

I wonder what percentage of KE's GRU-LAX passengers continue on to NRT or ICN.


User currently offlineLAXtoATL From United States of America, joined Oct 2009, 1604 posts, RR: 2
Reply 6, posted (4 years 10 months 2 weeks 4 days 1 hour ago) and read 3999 times:



Quoting Directorguy (Reply 1):
Interesting numbers-however I think that DL leads the market in terms of marketshare.

Please explain.

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 4):
apparently this is not a full list?

It is a partial list, he only listed the top 27 routes (then added the bottom the top).


User currently offlineLoalq From Switzerland, joined Jan 2007, 227 posts, RR: 3
Reply 7, posted (4 years 10 months 2 weeks 4 days ago) and read 3951 times:

Great info, Lipe. I guess anything beyond 70% is already a fairly good number. Do you have the separate figures for C class only?

Is ATL a good hub for Asia (China, South Korea and Japan)?


Rgds, Loalq



"...this is your captain speaking. We have a small problem. All four engines have stopped."
User currently offlineLipeGIG From Brazil, joined May 2005, 11451 posts, RR: 58
Reply 8, posted (4 years 10 months 2 weeks 3 days 17 hours ago) and read 3855 times:
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Quoting Directorguy (Reply 1):
Interesting numbers-however I think that DL leads the market in terms of marketshare.
Surprised to see that JL's flying a longhaul route with such a load factor. Wonder how long it will last.

AA leads the market, but later i will make a breakdown based on Seat supply.
JL will reduce their service to 2x weekly soon for a limited time period

Quoting OP3000 (Reply 2):
Overall DL did better than I expected. AA is maintaining decent load factors, despite more supply from them on new routes and from competitors on their existing services to GRU and GIG. Same can be said about JJ, although the MIA-MAO numbers are not there. Next year should be just as good for CO on these routes given the upcoming partnership with JJ.

JJ MIA-MAO was not a strong performer during June/09 but the numbers were around 60's

Quoting OP3000 (Reply 2):
They already have announced that JFK-GRU will be no more.

They decided to keep because of the 2016 Rio Olympics.

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 4):
apparently this is not a full list? I do not see MIA-GRU on AA or vv... the largest single capacity route by a US carrier to Latin America.

Not a full list, but AA MIA-GRU was around 58-62%. Still not strong.

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 4):
Once again, we see DL's ATL-GRU and ATL-GIG roundtrips as the strongest routes in LF between the US and Brazil.

As usual. I would say, DL should invest in increase slowly ATL-GIG and ATL-GRU capacity. 9x weekly would be good right now, with more overnight flights. The 2nd flights could be early morning arrivals from GIG/GRU.

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 4):
The KE and JL tags to GRU are clearly the weakest performing routes. I am sure that if the US and Brazil ever get Open Skies and the Asian carriers could revenue share on these routes, there would be every incentive for them to allow their US partners to operate the flights between the US and Brazil. The growth of other Asian options to GRU - including EK - is making it very hard for KE and JL to compete, esp. since they have to deal w/ the visa issue on their flights that stop in the US.

KE and JL do not offer something different than AF, LH, LX, BA and others offer. Is just the case of a market that with new players (TK, EK, EY and others) just took space from others with small creation of additional market.

Quoting SRT75 (Reply 5):
Dissapointing to see that LAX-Brazil seems to be such a weak market. I was hoping that KE's restoration of non-stop service was a sign that Brazil-Southern California was a viable market.

The problem is that, from LAX people fly out of AA, CO, DL and also UA. KE do not have a good schedule out of Sao Paulo as well as JL arival time in JFK is worst than JJ, DL or even AA.

Quoting Loalq (Reply 7):
Great info, Lipe. I guess anything beyond 70% is already a fairly good number. Do you have the separate figures for C class only?

I would say, in june, i don't have good data. Based on what i get from airlines (not official) i would say about C:

- IAH - 95%
- DFW - 65%
- MIA - 50%
- JFK - 70%
- IAD - 65%
- ORD - 65%
- ATL - 90%
- LAX - 30%

C/F numbers on June were still bad with the exception of ATL and IAH that performed very well. Again, this is based on my expectations, not official numbers as on Post # 1.

Quoting Loalq (Reply 7):
Is ATL a good hub for Asia (China, South Korea and Japan)?

Just for GIG. There's a lack of GIG-Asia and it could help to explain why ATL-GIG use to lead the yields between US and Brazil. GRU is more focused on the United States with les



New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
User currently offlineVC10DC10 From United States of America, joined Apr 2006, 1037 posts, RR: 3
Reply 9, posted (4 years 10 months 2 weeks 3 days 17 hours ago) and read 3817 times:



Quoting Directorguy (Reply 1):
Quoting Directorguy (Reply 1):
Surprised to see that JL's flying a longhaul route with such a load factor. Wonder how long it will last.

They already have announced that JFK-GRU will be no more.



Quoting SRT75 (Reply 5):
I wonder what percentage of KE's GRU-LAX passengers continue on to NRT or ICN.

Would I be correct in guessing that JL and KE don't have Fifth Freedom rights on their US-Brazil routes? That would seem to explain the low factors.


User currently offlineC010T3 From Brazil, joined Jul 2006, 3713 posts, RR: 19
Reply 10, posted (4 years 10 months 2 weeks 3 days 16 hours ago) and read 3799 times:



Quoting VC10DC10 (Reply 9):

Would I be correct in guessing that JL and KE don't have Fifth Freedom rights on their US-Brazil routes? That would seem to explain the low factors.

They actually do.


User currently offlineVC10DC10 From United States of America, joined Apr 2006, 1037 posts, RR: 3
Reply 11, posted (4 years 10 months 2 weeks 3 days 16 hours ago) and read 3793 times:



Quoting C010T3 (Reply 10):
They actually do.

Then their marketing teams have a lot to answer for.


User currently offlineC010T3 From Brazil, joined Jul 2006, 3713 posts, RR: 19
Reply 12, posted (4 years 10 months 2 weeks 3 days 16 hours ago) and read 3759 times:



Quoting VC10DC10 (Reply 11):
Then their marketing teams have a lot to answer for.

Well, I really think that JL will stop flying to GRU once they manage to establish a JV with a US carrier.


User currently offlineVC10DC10 From United States of America, joined Apr 2006, 1037 posts, RR: 3
Reply 13, posted (4 years 10 months 2 weeks 3 days 16 hours ago) and read 3751 times:



Quoting C010T3 (Reply 12):

Well, I really think that JL will stop flying to GRU once they manage to establish a JV with a US carrier.

That's quite true. Nevertheless, I'm surprised that JL and KE don't try harder to sell their excess US-Brazil capacity to tour operators, or advertise the existence of the service. How many New Yorkers know they can get to GRU on JL, for instance? I'm willing to guess the answer is, very few indeed. Just my two cents.


User currently offlineGlobalcabotage From United States of America, joined Nov 2009, 605 posts, RR: 0
Reply 14, posted (4 years 10 months 2 weeks 3 days 13 hours ago) and read 3686 times:

3- SA)">CO IAH-GRU-GIG - 89.3%
18- SA)">UA GIG-GRU-IAD - 77.7%
19- SA)">UA GRU-ORD - 77.3%
26- SA)">AA DFW-GRU 73.1%

What are the yields on the above flights? What role does cargo play? What is GRU-IAD without the GIG tag? What is GRU-IAH without the GIG tag? How many people connect in GRU to DFW and ORD on SA)">AA / SA)">UA?

Is it possible that SA)">UA gets out of South America? They have so few routes and codeshare agreements with SA airlines. If so, will SA)">AA fly ORD-GRU, or will it be a * airline, or will it not exist (if so, Motorolla will be pissed).


User currently offlineDanVS From Brazil, joined Jul 2009, 254 posts, RR: 0
Reply 15, posted (4 years 10 months 2 weeks 3 days 13 hours ago) and read 3680 times:



Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 4):
I do not see MIA-GRU on AA

AA MIA-GRU 63.0%
AA GRU-MIA 67.8%


User currently offlineLipeGIG From Brazil, joined May 2005, 11451 posts, RR: 58
Reply 16, posted (4 years 10 months 2 weeks 3 days 13 hours ago) and read 3665 times:
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Quoting Globalcabotage (Reply 14):
What are the yields on the above flights? What role does cargo play? What is GRU-IAD without the GIG tag? What is GRU-IAH without the GIG tag? How many people connect in GRU to DFW and ORD on SA)">AA / SA)">UA?

Very difficult to predict. IAH give us an indication but the Oil & Gas industry is the main O&D and high yielding industry for the route: IAH-GIG begin July with B764 and IAH-GRU got B762 while Rio nowadays got always a busy business class and Sao Paulo got a busy economy.
IAD is different, and in my view can even live without Rio.



New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
User currently offline767-300ER From United States of America, joined May 1999, 130 posts, RR: 0
Reply 17, posted (4 years 10 months 2 weeks 3 days 4 hours ago) and read 3593 times:

How is IAH-GRU doing on its own? Is it in danger of being dropped? We know GIG is doing well, but GRU has IAH as well as EWR non stops. Is that how CO intends it stay?

User currently offlineOP3000 From United States of America, joined Jun 2009, 1775 posts, RR: 2
Reply 18, posted (4 years 10 months 2 weeks 3 days 4 hours ago) and read 3583 times:



Quoting 767-300ER (Reply 17):
How is IAH-GRU doing on its own? Is it in danger of being dropped?

No, it isn't. They are running a 767-200 on IAH-GRU, which should have decent loads given the size of the two markets and the feed CO gets at IAH (much of which would not fly through EWR). Add to that, IAH is as good an option as there is on Brazil-Mexico (non MEX).


User currently offlineWorldTraveler From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 19, posted (4 years 10 months 2 weeks 3 days 2 hours ago) and read 3560 times:



Quoting OP3000 (Reply 18):
No, it isn't. They are running a 767-200 on IAH-GRU, which should have decent loads given the size of the two markets and the feed CO gets at IAH (much of which would not fly through EWR). Add to that, IAH is as good an option as there is on Brazil-Mexico (non MEX).

the problem is that AA has DFW-GRU which connects to nearly all of the same markets and AA has far more presence in the Brazil-southwest US markets.
Also, there is lots of capacity from LAX-GRU w/ both DL and KE in the market and many of the west coast markets can connect over LAX as easily as over DFW or IAH. Until KE and DL rationalize their capacity out of LAX - and there are clearly conflicting strategic ideas at work - the western US to Brazil will be a challenge - and that does effect IAH and DFW to GRU.

Quoting VC10DC10 (Reply 11):
Quoting C010T3 (Reply 10):
They actually do.

Then their marketing teams have a lot to answer for.

Fifth freedom routes are very hard to support for any carrier, esp. for a carrier that isn't viewed as having a presence in Latin America anyway.
Remember that part of the reason KE and JL MUST fly to Brazil w/ their own equipment is because the US and Brazil don't have Open Skies so there can be no ATI or joint ventures by any carriers on routes between the US and Brazil.

Quoting DanVS (Reply 15):
Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 4):
I do not see MIA-GRU on AA

AA MIA-GRU 63.0%
AA GRU-MIA 67.8%

Again, considering this is the largest US-Latin America route, it is well below acceptable for AA to posting LFs that are 25 points below the best LF in the market and double digit lower than other competitors.
IT is also apparent that AA has the lowest LFs in aggregate, evidence that they are engaged in a strategy to flood the market w/ capacity - a strategy that is clearly not delivering the results that AA needs to be profitable.


User currently offlineFlyPNS1 From United States of America, joined Nov 1999, 6646 posts, RR: 24
Reply 20, posted (4 years 10 months 2 weeks 3 days 2 hours ago) and read 3528 times:



Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 19):
Again, considering this is the largest US-Latin America route, it is well below acceptable for AA to posting LFs that are 25 points below the best LF in the market and double digit lower than other competitors.

Not necessarily. Carriers that get good yields often run far lower LF's than carriers that have trash yields. DL's runs very high LF's to make up for weaker yielding connecting traffic.


User currently offlineTravellerPlus From New Zealand, joined Nov 2008, 347 posts, RR: 0
Reply 21, posted (4 years 10 months 2 weeks 2 days 23 hours ago) and read 3467 times:

Bom Dia LipeGIG

What was the source of your data and is it publically available? I need to get South American route information for work and I am having difficulties.

Muito obrigado, TravellerPlus



What goes around comes around....unless your luggage is not on the carousel...
User currently offlineWorldTraveler From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 22, posted (4 years 10 months 2 weeks 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 3450 times:



Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 20):


Not necessarily. Carriers that get good yields often run far lower LF's than carriers that have trash yields

DOT data for years has shown that AA has yields to GRU out of DFW and MIA that are below DL's out of ATL or CO out of IAH.
AA is flooding the market w/ capacity in order to try to hold onto its market position but the only market where they are a clear leader in terms of financial results (combination of yields and LFs) is JFK-GRU.
Given DL's Jun LF on ATL-MAO, it is likely that route generated better financials than any of AA's new NE Brazil routes because ATL-MAO has had higher average fares since it started than any of the other new routes for either AA or DL (FOR, REC, SSA, CNF) despite being the shortest and operated w/ the least expensive aircraft. Comparable LFs indicate much stronger finances.


User currently offlineMaverickM11 From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 17681 posts, RR: 46
Reply 23, posted (4 years 10 months 2 weeks 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 3424 times:



Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 22):
DOT data for years has shown that AA has yields to GRU out of DFW and MIA that are below DL's out of ATL or CO out of IAH.

While that's true, it's not the whole picture. DL does get a great fare on the 30 or so PDEW on ATLGRU. The problem is the next biggest OD, usually NYC, LAX, or MCO (actually MCO is usually bigger than ATL to Brazil for DL), is not a good fare. AA, on the other hand, gets a good fare that is lower than ATLGRU, but it gets it for 10 times as many passengers as ATLGRU. AA can put a lot more revenue on the plane in the local market before it needs to dilute it with connecting traffic.

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 22):
Given DL's Jun LF on ATL-MAO, it is likely that route generated better financials than any of AA's new NE Brazil routes

MAO is doing so great they just dropped one more weekly flight from March onward. Again, good fare for the 4 people flying ATLMAO, junk fare for NYC/LAX/MCO, probably some good fares to unique ODs, and still the plane is barely a third full. Any carrier would prefer a good fare with a large market than a high fare on a handful of people.



E pur si muove -Galileo
User currently offlineLipeGIG From Brazil, joined May 2005, 11451 posts, RR: 58
Reply 24, posted (4 years 10 months 1 week 6 days 4 hours ago) and read 3283 times:
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Quoting 767-300ER (Reply 17):
How is IAH-GRU doing on its own? Is it in danger of being dropped? We know GIG is doing well, but GRU has IAH as well as EWR non stops. Is that how CO intends it stay?



Quoting OP3000 (Reply 18):
No, it isn't. They are running a 767-200 on IAH-GRU, which should have decent loads given the size of the two markets and the feed CO gets at IAH (much of which would not fly through EWR). Add to that, IAH is as good an option as there is on Brazil-Mexico (non MEX).



Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 19):
the problem is that AA has DFW-GRU which connects to nearly all of the same markets and AA has far more presence in the Brazil-southwest US markets.
Also, there is lots of capacity from LAX-GRU w/ both DL and KE in the market and many of the west coast markets can connect over LAX as easily as over DFW or IAH

IAH-GRU does okay and that's my point of view. Yields are not so amazing because they rely more on connections, and J demand isn't that big. Also, i remember last year when CO decided to venture on a seasonal IAH-GIG, they manage to offer both routes with 764's (being the GIG flight with 35C 764) and this year it seems that they do not feel comfortable to offer it again.
As mentioned by WT, GRU is very competitive with flights to LAX, DFW, MCO and ORD and this might also explain.

Quoting TravellerPlus (Reply 21):
Bom Dia LipeGIG

What was the source of your data and is it publically available? I need to get South American route information for work and I am having difficulties.

It's the Department of Transportation - DoT and yes, it's publically available. See the link:

http://www.transtats.bts.gov/Tables....riers&DB_Short_Name=Air%20Carriers

Go for T100 International ones, they complement each other with limited O&D information (they only cover the point to where the plane goes, not further connections)



New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
25 WorldTraveler : DOT data reports the full revenue on the aircraft from all of the connections. GRU markets are more than large enough for a small sample to be valid.
26 MaverickM11 : You can also get it by OD. You can slice it any way you want, but no one is going to believe DL is doing well outside of ATLGRU/GIG. Comparing the av
27 MAH4546 : And LAX-GRU is doing so well, it goes on short haitius again in March. And if Delta applies to switch this poor performing route, AA will simply appl
28 Incitatus : ATL-FOR also goes down to 1 x week low season. What's the point of having it?
29 Globalcabotage : What are the connection possibilities for GRU to Asia via ORD?
30 LAXintl : Can't speak for JL, however KE is trying hard in LA. They have entire buses painted, billboards, newspaper adds promoting their link to Sao Paulo. Gr
31 LipeGIG : This never end DL vs AA discussion is easy to justify. DL do very well because they are limited/restricted service while AA got the most revenue becau
32 LAXintl : Yes and I see the poor loads coming back regularly, which makes me think that there is not much of a market KE has been able to stimulate with a nons
33 C010T3 : At that point, RG was dropping routes because they didn't have frames to fly them, so we will never know the exact reason.
34 Commavia : Overall to Latin America, AA outperformed DL's yields by about 18% in Q3.
35 LAXintl : But remember back - RG had plenty turn-around flights at LA also, but those got cut one by one until everything went bye bye after the Japan flight.
36 LipeGIG : Agree. The fact for me is that LAX is too divided between UA, AA, DL and CO that even a non stop is able to got the market. Many people continue to f
37 MAH4546 : But Delta's average fare in the virtually competition-less Atlanta-Sao Paulo market is higher than American's average fare in Miami-Sao Paulo. Oh, an
38 Incitatus : L.A. is divided not only among airlines but among airports too. BUR, SNA and ONT have good connections to Brazil.
39 LipeGIG : Another true point. California is huge and important, but different from Florida and New York to South America, people goes to MIA and JFK/EWR while
40 WorldTraveler : NO ONE has told AA that they have to have most of their Latin capacity in MIA; the competitive environment there was well known before AA ever bought
41 MaverickM11 : AA actually hasn't "dumped" capacity really anywhere in Latin America. DL is the only carrier adding capacity that it clearly can't handle and doesn'
42 LipeGIG : Sorry to say but right now DL is the only one not using full capacity. UA will be back to the group (and what a mistake to not put extra capacity dur
43 MAH4546 : I am sure AA is very happy that DL is using frequencies on JFK-BOG and LAX-GRU. Delta is a very weak competitor in South America outside of Atlanta. P
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