Sponsor Message:
Civil Aviation Forum
My Starred Topics | Profile | New Topic | Forum Index | Help | Search 
JAL Weighs Bankruptcy Filing  
User currently offlineLightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 12421 posts, RR: 100
Posted (4 years 3 months 3 weeks 23 hours ago) and read 17498 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

Note: Might require a subscription:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...48703278604574625260687354896.html

Quote:
TOKYO—Japan Airlines Corp. faced mounting investor worries Wednesday amid reports that it is studying a bankruptcy-protection filing, sending its shares down 25% in midday Tokyo trading.

On Tuesday, a person familiar with the matter said the airline, its major lenders and a quasigovernmental investment fund are studying a bankruptcy-protection filing for the carrier if it doesn't win concessions from retirees.

I'm not certain how serious this is, but it made the WSJ...

Lightsaber


I've posted how many times?!?
242 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineDALCE From Netherlands, joined Feb 2007, 1661 posts, RR: 7
Reply 1, posted (4 years 3 months 3 weeks 22 hours ago) and read 17338 times:

OUCH!!!!, I would say.
I have no expertise in this matter , but it sure will be very sad if JL goes down.....



flown on : F50,F70,CR1,CR2,CR9,E75,143,AR8,AR1,733,735,736,73G,738,753,744,319,320,321,333,AB6.
User currently offlineAirNZ From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 2, posted (4 years 3 months 3 weeks 21 hours ago) and read 17206 times:

Sad news indeed, and am very sorry to hear such. How does the procedure work in Japan.....is it a similar situation to the United Kingdom, where a company essentially liquidates, or as in the US where it would be protected from creditors and competition?

User currently offlinePM From India, joined Feb 2005, 6840 posts, RR: 64
Reply 3, posted (4 years 3 months 3 weeks 21 hours ago) and read 17188 times:

I have four JAL flights booked for next week!  Wow!

But my understanding is that it would be some form of protected bankruptcy in the spirit of Chapter 11.

So I still expect to fly!


User currently offlineOcracoke From United States of America, joined Jan 2008, 676 posts, RR: 1
Reply 4, posted (4 years 3 months 3 weeks 21 hours ago) and read 17178 times:



Quoting AirNZ (Reply 2):
, or as in the US where it would be protected from creditors and competition?

Nobody gets "protected" from competiion. They still have to sell tickets, pay for fuel, labor, landing fees, etc, while in Chapter 11 protection.


User currently offlineKappel From Suriname, joined Jul 2005, 3533 posts, RR: 17
Reply 5, posted (4 years 3 months 3 weeks 20 hours ago) and read 17117 times:



Quoting DALCE (Reply 1):
OUCH!!!!, I would say.
I have no expertise in this matter , but it sure will be very sad if JL goes down.....

This would be a chapter 11 like bankruptcy, so they can restructure. There was an articel in FlightGlobal IIRC recently, can't seem to find it now. The Japanese government has no intention to let JAL fail.



L1011,733,734,73G,738,743,744,752,763,772,77W,DC855,DC863,DC930,DC950,MD11,MD88,306,319,320,321,343,346,ARJ85,CR7,E195
User currently offlineKappel From Suriname, joined Jul 2005, 3533 posts, RR: 17
Reply 6, posted (4 years 3 months 3 weeks 20 hours ago) and read 17109 times:



Quoting PM (Reply 3):
But my understanding is that it would be some form of protected bankruptcy in the spirit of Chapter 11.

Haha, you beat me to it... that's what you get for posting during office hours...



L1011,733,734,73G,738,743,744,752,763,772,77W,DC855,DC863,DC930,DC950,MD11,MD88,306,319,320,321,343,346,ARJ85,CR7,E195
User currently offlineAirNZ From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 7, posted (4 years 3 months 3 weeks 20 hours ago) and read 17074 times:



Quoting Ocracoke (Reply 4):
Nobody gets "protected" from competiion. They still have to sell tickets, pay for fuel, labor, landing fees, etc, while in Chapter 11 protection.

Sorry, but to a distinct degree they certainly do, in the sense that whilst being allowed to continue to operate 'normally' they have very great protection of cost advantages which their competitors do not. For example, every penny paid out to suppliers in the 90 days prior to filing is obtained back. Anyhow, I was not trying to step on sensitivities, but merely asking under which type of process is involved in Japan.


User currently offlineTeme82 From Finland, joined Mar 2007, 1400 posts, RR: 0
Reply 8, posted (4 years 3 months 3 weeks 20 hours ago) and read 17003 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!



Quoting PM (Reply 3):
But my understanding is that it would be some form of protected bankruptcy in the spirit of Chapter 11.

I do hope that after this JL's corporate structure is far better shape than it's now. I think that they have a huge load of work ahead if they are going to make it more efficient player in the tight Japanese market. This will cause people getting fired and out sourcing some parts of the company.



Flying high and low
User currently offlineSASDC8 From Norway, joined Mar 2006, 699 posts, RR: 1
Reply 9, posted (4 years 3 months 3 weeks 20 hours ago) and read 16956 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!



Quoting Kappel (Reply 5):
This would be a chapter 11 like bankruptcy, so they can restructure. There was an articel in FlightGlobal IIRC recently, can't seem to find it now. The Japanese government has no intention to let JAL fail.

Totally agree with that. There is no way that The Japanese government would let JAL go belly up.

Is NH in a much better state or have they to been severely hit by the economic crises in Japan?

Cheers
Stein



2-3-2 is NOT a premium configuration
User currently offlineElite From Hong Kong, joined Jun 2006, 2784 posts, RR: 10
Reply 10, posted (4 years 3 months 3 weeks 20 hours ago) and read 16945 times:



Quoting SASDC8 (Reply 9):
Is NH in a much better state or have they to been severely hit by the economic crises in Japan?

NH currently is doing better than JL; JL has massive debt while NH has avoided that, albeit they are indebted, and they are seeking cooperation with US airlines if I recall correctly. They also seem to be ordering new Boeing planes.


User currently offlineAaron747 From Japan, joined Aug 2003, 7951 posts, RR: 26
Reply 11, posted (4 years 3 months 3 weeks 19 hours ago) and read 16885 times:



Quoting SASDC8 (Reply 9):

Is NH in a much better state or have they to been severely hit by the economic crises in Japan?

Like virtually every Japanese company, they've been hit hard but are very conservative and have responded well to the crisis. They made significant improvements in operating profit in the Japanese 2Q after a rough 1Q and posted a ~$200 million net loss for the first half of 2009.

http://www.ana.co.jp/eng/aboutana/press/2009/index_091030-2.html



If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
User currently offlineReadytotaxi From United Kingdom, joined Dec 2006, 3051 posts, RR: 3
Reply 12, posted (4 years 3 months 3 weeks 17 hours ago) and read 16600 times:

And this from the BBC business site.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8434384.stm



you don't get a second chance to make a first impression!
User currently offlineBurkhard From Germany, joined Nov 2006, 4360 posts, RR: 2
Reply 13, posted (4 years 3 months 3 weeks 17 hours ago) and read 16576 times:

Does this mean that there are early 787 delivery slots available?

User currently offlineDLPMMM From United States of America, joined exactly 9 years ago today! , 3580 posts, RR: 10
Reply 14, posted (4 years 3 months 3 weeks 17 hours ago) and read 16527 times:

Quoting AirNZ (Reply 7):
Sorry, but to a distinct degree they certainly do, in the sense that whilst being allowed to continue to operate 'normally' they have very great protection of cost advantages which their competitors do not. For example, every penny paid out to suppliers in the 90 days prior to filing is obtained back. Anyhow, I was not trying to step on sensitivities, but merely asking under which type of process is involved in Japan.

Not true.

Only significant payments that are out of the ordinary within 90 days of filing can be obtained back. This is to avoid favoritism to some creditors and prevent corrupt practices just before filing.

You do not understand the USA process as well as you think.

[Edited 2009-12-30 05:44:36]

User currently offlinePeanuts From Netherlands, joined Dec 2009, 1411 posts, RR: 4
Reply 15, posted (4 years 3 months 3 weeks 16 hours ago) and read 16393 times:

Mmmm...I'd hate to speculate but is it possible Richard Anderson (DL) gave JAL his playbook? Very shrewd... Big grin


Question Conventional Wisdom. While not all commonly held beliefs are wrong…all should be questioned.
User currently offlineJPRM1 From France, joined Aug 2007, 78 posts, RR: 0
Reply 16, posted (4 years 3 months 3 weeks 16 hours ago) and read 16268 times:

I am not an expert in bankruptcy in Japan, but if JAL is going to this situation, what will be the future of their planes orders?
What impact could that have on Boeing and especially on the 787?

Thanks for your information.
Cheers


User currently offlineCubsrule From United States of America, joined May 2004, 22309 posts, RR: 20
Reply 17, posted (4 years 3 months 3 weeks 15 hours ago) and read 16103 times:

What, if anything, does this have to do with or tell us about the DL and/or AA deals?

Quoting DLPMMM (Reply 14):
Only significant payments that are out of the ordinary within 90 days of filing can be obtained back.

Among other things. Payments for goods or services made at or near the time those things are delivered also may not be obtained back.



I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
User currently offlineLAXtoATL From United States of America, joined Oct 2009, 1590 posts, RR: 2
Reply 18, posted (4 years 3 months 3 weeks 14 hours ago) and read 15993 times:



Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 17):
What, if anything, does this have to do with or tell us about the DL and/or AA deals?

My guess... not much. DL nor AA care if JL is bankrupt as long as they continue operations. They were never looking to invest in JAL as a business, but wanted the operational benefits they would realize to their own bottom line as a result of tie-up.

It would however really muddy the waters for involvement by TPG.


User currently offlineAirNZ From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 19, posted (4 years 3 months 3 weeks 14 hours ago) and read 15920 times:



Quoting DLPMMM (Reply 14):
Not true.

Only significant payments that are out of the ordinary within 90 days of filing can be obtained back. This is to avoid favoritism to some creditors and prevent corrupt practices just before filing.

You do not understand the USA process as well as you think.

If I am incorrect in something that's perfectly fine and I appreciate the correction. However, ANY payments obtained back is a distinct financial advantage no matter how you try to spin it. Anyhow, I was asking what the process took in Japan, not entering a debate on Ch11 so I fail to see the 'sensitivities' involved that somehow staunchly 'need' defended. For your information mate, I never claimed to understand the US process as well as you imagined, so get it right!


User currently offlineVV701 From United Kingdom, joined Aug 2005, 7258 posts, RR: 17
Reply 20, posted (4 years 3 months 3 weeks 13 hours ago) and read 15690 times:



Quoting Ocracoke (Reply 4):
Nobody gets "protected" from competiion.

If Chapter 11 Protection does not improve your competitive position in the market place (to the disadvantage of your competitors) what on earth is the point of it? At the end of the day if it gave you no additional competitive edge you would be in exactly the same mess as you were in when you applied for protection and the whole process would be an utter waste of time and money.

Whatever, Chapter 11 Protection is certainly is not a magic wand that improves your competitive position in the market without a knock-on effect on your competitors.


User currently offlineLAXdude1023 From India, joined Sep 2006, 7322 posts, RR: 24
Reply 21, posted (4 years 3 months 3 weeks 13 hours ago) and read 15571 times:



Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 17):
What, if anything, does this have to do with or tell us about the DL and/or AA deals?

I agree with LAXtoATL. This doesnt tell us anything about DL or AA's proposal. All they care about is that JL still exists.



Stewed...Lewd...Crude...Irreverent...Belligerent
User currently offlineLightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 12421 posts, RR: 100
Reply 22, posted (4 years 3 months 3 weeks 13 hours ago) and read 15433 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!



Quoting PM (Reply 3):

So I still expect to fly!

I would too. The article went into pensions being the artifact JAL had to cut. It should not effect flying other than the cutting of poor routes. I would expect even marginal routes to be kept (for now).

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 21):
I agree with LAXtoATL. This doesnt tell us anything about DL or AA's proposal. All they care about is that JL still exists.

I would concur.

To others:
I do not know Japanese bankruptcy law, so I will not speculate on the full impacts.

I was just very surprised to not see any thread on this topic.

Lightsaber



I've posted how many times?!?
User currently offlineDLPMMM From United States of America, joined exactly 9 years ago today! , 3580 posts, RR: 10
Reply 23, posted (4 years 3 months 3 weeks 9 hours ago) and read 14261 times:



Quoting AirNZ (Reply 19):
If I am incorrect in something that's perfectly fine and I appreciate the correction. However, ANY payments obtained back is a distinct financial advantage no matter how you try to spin it. Anyhow, I was asking what the process took in Japan, not entering a debate on Ch11 so I fail to see the 'sensitivities' involved that somehow staunchly 'need' defended. For your information mate, I never claimed to understand the US process as well as you imagined, so get it right!

But you apparently have very little understanding of the Chapter 11 process.

Under Chapter 11, the shareholders are generally wiped out completely, and the company's ownership is transfered to the creditors as a group (both sec ured and unsecured). The creditors as new owners then must decide how to divide the remaining company assets among themselves. Generally the assets remaining are less than the outstanding debt, so the creditors end up with less than 100%. The 90 day reach-back period is just to prevent shenenigans by either management or specific debtors over the well-being of the debtors group as a whole. The reach-back period does little to nothing WRT any business advantage. The company upon emerging from Chapter 11 is in actuality a new company, with new owners, often new managers (like Delta), new market rate labor contracts, new supply contracts.

The largest advantage to chapter 11 is the ability to cancel long term contracts (labor and supply) when market conditions have changed significantly, but this is only an advantage over competitors that have similar long term disadvantagious contracts (like other legacies) and does nothing against such competitors as LCCs or legacies that have renegotiated their agreements outside of the Chapter 11 system (Like AA).

Chapter 11 is also a very expensive process, as the legal and administrative costs are enormous. In the short term it is much more expensive for a company in Chapter 11 than normal running day to day, so the long term savings must be very significant for the process to be worthwhile. Many companies enter Chapter 11 but never emerge, as the creditors find the financial return is better with less risk if they liquidate the assets of the company.

The major reason for the Chapter 11 filings of the USA's airlines (and JAL as well) is huge defined pension plans that they cannot afford (and is carried on the books as debt). Since the USA companies were prohibited by law from unilaterally changing their pension plans for unionized employees, and the unions were too late to recognize the economic realities that defined benefit plans are no longer viable long term for a USA company, Chapter 11 was the only recourse left (the same has happened in the US Auto, Steel, and other industries).


User currently offlineF9Animal From United States of America, joined Dec 2004, 4947 posts, RR: 28
Reply 24, posted (4 years 3 months 3 weeks 8 hours ago) and read 13931 times:



Quoting PM (Reply 3):
I have four JAL flights booked for next week! Wow!

But my understanding is that it would be some form of protected bankruptcy in the spirit of Chapter 11.

So I still expect to fly!

I don't think you have anything to worry about. JAL is not leaving us anytime soon. Great airline, great people, and strong future. It seems like the Japenese economy gets whammed hard when things go south. Maybe it is time for a "poor economy" insurance plan for companies? Of course building a very strong nest egg will help any company weather turbulence like this.

I sure hope JAL gets the concessions, and avoids bankruptcy!



I Am A Different Animal!!
25 Cubsrule : I wonder whether it demonstrates either that: 1) JL has made a decision and consulted with the winning carrier -or- 2) A decision is a long way off I
26 Post contains images Peanuts : Admittedly, I know nothing about Japanese Corporate Bankruptcy Law but option 1 sounds very interesting to me. I see Delta's hands all over this. Unr
27 LAXtoATL : 1) I would assume that JL has consulted with the winning carrier. But a decision to file bankruptcy really doesn't give us insight into which carrier
28 BOACCunard : If JL goes into bankruptcy I believe this will largely be the choice of the Japanese government. That is where the real power is behind JL right now.
29 BMI727 : Definitely a possibility. JAL would be getting their house in order before they bring in the outside investment. Plus, American carriers are experts
30 Lightsaber : First, good post. But I'm not sure if I should laugh or cry! Lightsaber
31 Cubsrule : Agreed. I think the two are independent. That said, though, there are multiple ways to reorganize in bankruptcy, and while one is not necessarily bet
32 Flybyguy : What recourse does AA have when DL wins the partnership contest?
33 BOACCunard : Recourse? If DL wins, DL wins. AA can't do anything about it. And for that matter, if AA wins (which I doubt), DL can't do anything about it.
34 Post contains links LatinPlane : Good CNN report on JAL http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rHD4nyRRY_A
35 LAXtoATL : I do not believe it will happen for one second, but there are reports that some members of the Japanese gov't would like JAL to cease international op
36 Post contains links FCKC : http://www.air-cosmos.com/site/afp.php?Id=091231021314.lmjv6tmr.xml One option to let JAL alive , would be to turn it into a domestic operator. In tha
37 Cubsrule : I don't believe it either - shutting down JL's longhaul operations would almost certainly mean no ATI for UA/NH (or NH/anyone else) and thus no open
38 LAXdude1023 : Theres another cultural point as well. The Japanese are a very stoic culture. They show no pain, fear, or signs of failure at almost all costs. The f
39 AAExecPlat : 1) Someone on here know BK procedures in Japan? Do they even have Chapter 11? In the UK, for example, CH 11 doesn't exist, so BK means receivership or
40 LAXdude1023 : No, youre not wrong. Star Alliance comes up the big winner in the situation. If you think about it, DL or AA really dont win in this situation. One i
41 LAXtoATL : I do not know the Japanese bankruptcy procedures. However, I have read enough news on this particular situation to know that if JAL files for bankrup
42 Post contains links Readytotaxi : http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKTOE5BU03R20091231?symbol=9205.T This from Reuters today, they appear to be doubling the loan to the airline. Also th
43 LJ : Why? In the event of JL quitting longhaul, a lot of slots will become available at NRT. Who will be able to get these slots? NH will probably not be
44 Ken777 : When you are in a market where you need consumer confidence then Bankruptcy does not increase your competitive position. It means you need to provide
45 LJ : However, when DL and JL come together than they can do this under the "we need to do this or else we don´t get ATI" argument. This would mean the Ja
46 LAXtoATL : Not likely. NH would get almost all of the slots JL would relinquish. They would need them to operate the additional flights that would be transferre
47 LAXtoATL : If JL were to stop operating international flights, DL and JL would not need ATI. There would be no competition / overlap between the two carriers. J
48 LAXtoATL : I must stress that although it makes for an interesting story, the chances of JL terminating its international operations is less than 1%. (the likeli
49 Lightsaber : UA and NH will be winners. But JAL without international would be bankrupt. They need to cut their pensions and other non-direct expenses. Sadly, the
50 Cjpark : Wow? In the event of bankruptcy the current managers of the Airline will show up on television, ceremoniously cry and beg for forgiveness act repente
51 MAH4546 : I just bought 600 shares of JAL stock - looks like I boosted the share value 14.86%, because I represent the entire day's volume. Worst comes to worst
52 WorldTraveler : JAL is a mess and it's problems are far from resolved... but it is unlikely that they will terminate int'l operations or cease to exist. Lenders are w
53 Lightsaber : Holy cow! It is worth $500 bucks for the bragging rights alone to say 'I'm the market.' For some reason this factoid amuses me. Lightsaber
54 LAXdude1023 : Laugh if you wish, but its one think I learned in the 18 months I spent in Japan. The Japanese are a very stoic culture and dont like to ask for help
55 Cjpark : FYI, I based my comments on time spent in Japan for an American owned company working at a plant in Japan run by Japanese managers. I spend too much
56 Carpethead : I am not familiar with bankruptcy laws in Japan but there are procedures similar to Chapter 11; however not on the scale of JL's business. To date, it
57 Post contains links Robffm2 : As the Mainichi Daily News reports international flights might go to ANA: http://mdn.mainichi.jp/mdnnews/busin...news/20091231p2a00m0na001000c.html
58 AirNz : Why the surprise with "wow"......sounds exactly like a Ch11 in the US. With respect, you obviously know very little of Japanese culture and what it e
59 LAXtoATL : It would be more than a big revenue hit, they would also have to take a huge hit in number of employees, number of aircraft, etc. That would be a mas
60 Avek00 : From the beginning, I said no one should discount a "Japanese" solution to the JAL crisis, which incidentally would deliver some windfall benefits for
61 WorldTraveler : " target=_blank>http://mdn.mainichi.jp/mdnnews/busin....html You do realize that if JL and ANA were to consolidate even parts of their operation, it
62 Lightsaber : Thank you for the link. Later parts of the link suggest that: It sounds more like a retrenchment keeping most international opperations. One airline
63 Avek00 : I disagree with having these two scenarios as the only options. For starters, moving Japan to a "one major airline" system brings the country in line
64 Avek00 : IMO, this is a very likely outcome. As hinted to above, if the Japanese play their cards right, they can effectively force the downsizing of the larg
65 Avek00 : BTW, on further thought, I will concede that South Korea is an exception to the rule.
66 LAXtoATL : There are some factual problems with your proposed scenario... 1) JAL & ANA would not be merging their domestic operations. So the critical mass you
67 Jetlanta : Keep in mind also that Japan is the world's 2nd largest economy, so other comparisons have their weaknesses. Imagine that size of economy with only o
68 Avek00 : I disagree strongly with this. The US government has previously approved ATI arrangements with similarly situated airlines, including the likes of Ai
69 Post contains links Lightsaber : But it looks like China will overtake them soon: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_%28nominal%29 Lightsaber
70 Peanuts : ANA and JAL are competitors right? I don't believe there is some sort of "conspiracy" going on here to drive out the foreign hub carrier. I believe t
71 WorldTraveler : First of all, the European airlines you fondly think of are not the airlines of their own countries - they are airlines competing as part of the EU.
72 Aaway : What's there to chuckle at? In reference to JL, JVs, ATI, contraction, etc.,all we have at this point is conjecture and speculation...and lots of was
73 Post contains links Centrair : Now is the time for one of the other domestic carriers to go international. If NH becomes the only Japanese carrier with vast international service, i
74 WorldTraveler : correct... and the only thing that has come of any creditible info is that the Japanese gov't and apparently JAL both prefer DL... w/ word that JAL o
75 MaverickM11 : What "success"? They've been losing money for years and every addition of late has been reduced or canceled.
76 Peanuts : And the fish took the bait... I guess, according to you (Mav), NW's past, and DL's current NRT presence, is just an bad hobby they can't seem to shak
77 WorldTraveler : perhaps MAAv can tell us how other carriers are doing w/ their finances on routes to JAApAAn.
78 MaverickM11 : They've been doing that at CVG for a while now too There may be some truth to that in places like MCO, but not entire hubs that are unprofitable. It'
79 Avek00 : The USA air market is different on account of a combination of its sheer size, the relative affluence of its population, and geography. The European
80 B747-4U3 : Would you care to provide some evidence for what you have just said? I think you'll find that most European consumers are the same, otherwise how wou
81 WorldTraveler : Didn't say you were an operative.... but AA has a 3rd place position in Japan and virtually no presence in Asia outside of Japan. AA doesn't lose as
82 PM : I simply don't believe that's true. I am British but the last time I flew on BA was in 2003 (a business trip booked by my company) and the last time
83 Avek00 : This is the very evidence which you seek. Despite the global presence and strength of the AF brand (including in Los Angeles - the airline has LAX-CD
84 Peanuts : Last time I checked, NRT was a tad farther away removed from DTW than CVG is from DTW. Try to think "comprehensively" here. (was there really a need
85 WorldTraveler : Arguing that because LAX-LHR on AF failed and thus European carriers cater only to their own nationality is the poorest form of logic. One data point
86 B747-4U3 : No it's not the evidence I was asking for. You have not provided evidence you have provided speculation, and in my opinion, poor speculation at that.
87 Cws818 : Which one is it: oneworld or finances? Additionally, JL has been in oneworld for far, far less time than DL has been in SkyTeam or NH in Star. Like E
88 Centrair : There is something about the Japanese flying non-Japanese carriers. When it is their first time abroad, they will prefer a Japanese carrier over the n
89 Peanuts : To an extend. Nothing more, nothing less. If I want to stare at "Beautiful Singapore Girl" (who may live in a cramped apartment with 3 other girls so
90 Centrair : This is true. I don't personally mind flying us carriers. In fact I am life-long NW. I think that placing a meal in front of a J, C or Y passenger sh
91 Post contains links Aaway : Hmmm, as I recall, some within the Tokyo business community expressed a preference for DL, which somehow begat affirmation at the prefectural govt le
92 MaverickM11 : You asked how AA was doing financially in the Pacific, and I answered. Considered they're probably not losing money in Tokyo and obviously not losing
93 MAH4546 : M11 is easily the single most unbiased poster on these boards. He posts nothing but facts, which many people (yourself included, apparently) don't li
94 Jetlanta : Let's not go overboard. Plenty of Mav's posts are pure opinion. I doubt even he would dispute that.
95 WorldTraveler : The only thing that seems certain in all of this is that AA won't be apart of any future for JAL. There has been no talk about redefining the role AA
96 LAXtoATL : I will just point out that word "possible" at the end of that statement. I will also point out that that quote was given several months ago. Since th
97 Peanuts : Let's not kid ourselves. Most of us "pepper" the "facts" on these blogs with a "healthy" doses of personal opinion. We all do it. I don't have any pr
98 Cws818 : It is too early to make such a firm conclusion.
99 MAH4546 : And since then Nishmatsu has not re-stated a preference for moving to Sky either. And December 3rd is several months ago, really? You really love to
100 WorldTraveler : NRT works VERY WELL for DL. What doesn't work is the cost equation but let's remember DL has had a SOC for the sum total of about 24 hrs and the merg
101 LAXtoATL : LOL, you should get your facts straight before you call someone else out. That article was dated Decemember 3rd that statement was NOT. The article d
102 Avek00 : And now who's speculating? It ain't over till it's over, and to AA's credit, they have the benefit of institutional inertia -- a JAL/AA arrangment is
103 AirNz : It's certainly possible, but on what factual basis are you currently claiming that it is certain?
104 JRDC930 : It would be horrible to see JAL sell off all of their long haul aircraft and become a measly, unpresteigious, unimportant, domestic puddle jumping air
105 Avek00 : 1. ANA proposes to assume all of JAL's international operations. 2. Times have changed with the USA legacy airlines, particularly with respect to har
106 MAH4546 : Point remains, the statement has validity as of December 3rd and JAL has yet to say otherwise. Though looks like I was right in that this is going to
107 LAXtoATL : No. The point is you were wrong. I said the statement was made several months ago. And it was. You challenged me asking was December 3rd several mont
108 JRDC930 : Well i guess thats a matter of opinion; but in Economy foreign carriers and especially Asian carriers tend to treat passengers MUCH better than the U
109 Avek00 : Standing alone, market concentration is not a dispositive factor in the consideration of a request for antitrust immunity. Furthermore, the United St
110 LAXtoATL : An ANA source said that obtaining JL's international routes would possibly delay or even result in a rejection of their ATI application. However, tha
111 Airbuseric : Anyway, we can speculate and say our opinions and thoughts here; some things are almost sure; - JAL will not file for bankruptcy - JAL will change all
112 Avek00 : Oh, it'd delay the application, to be sure, but an "enlarged" ANA would still get ATI once all is said and done. None of the three points you stated
113 LAXtoATL : That's your opinion. But the airline itself has said they believe it is a possibility they wouldn't get it and they aren't even concerned if they don
114 Avek00 :
115 Avek00 : IMHO, it's just political posturing via the press. ANA will get its ATI from the USA regardless, the Japanese government will see to that.
116 Aaway : So I guess you're calling me out, even tough you're refutation of the quote was totally fallacious. I invite your attention to the quote as orginally
117 LAXtoATL : You assume wrong. I was not calling you at all. I was responding to MAH5456 who was trying to call me out but failed miserably. Go back and read all
118 LAXtoATL : I disagree that it is political posturing. If ANA wants JL's international operations and they get it, I think they know that obtaining ATI would be
119 Aaway : Oh I know EXACTLY what was going on. Yet, you overlooked (perhaps conveniently) what was 'going on' in my reply to WT. Still awaiting a citation....a
120 LAXtoATL : If you know exactly what was going on I am not sure what you are looking for asking me for a source. I have nothing to do with what is going between
121 Post contains links LAXtoATL : "In an interview conducted on Friday and published on Sunday, the Asahi also said JAL President Haruka Nishimatsu preferred Delta Air Lines (DAL.N) a
122 Post contains links LAXtoATL : http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKTRE60205H20100103 "TOKYO (Reuters) - The president of Japan Airlines Corp (9205.T) said he is against a bankruptcy p
123 Centrair : Maybe it would be best if they for example reduced their frequencies to destinations that really should be seasonal rather than year round and maybe
124 Post contains links Teme82 : More yens to JL ... "The Japanese government has agreed to double the offer of state-funded credit to Japan Airlines (JAL) to 200bn yen ($2.2bn; £1.3
125 MaverickM11 : You're going to have a tough time convincing anyone of that, unless you're comparing it to DL's FRA hub. DL's offer to JL is so compelling not only b
126 WorldTraveler : Whatever reason you want to give is up to you but we are seeing yet one more compelling piece of information that those who thought that AA would win
127 Aaway : " target=_blank>http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKTR...00103 Fair enough. Of course I could take you to task regarding context, but I'll resist the u
128 Cws818 : Perhaps they were not kidding anyone but merely have an opinion different from your own.
129 LAXintl : Wont add much to this debate, except say that in my view AA is screwed in the Pacific if they loose JAL. Yes Cathay is a great airline, however Northe
130 Cubsrule : What leverage does the Japanese government have besides the proposed open skies agreement?
131 LAXtoATL : The OpenSkies agreement is the leverage. But you have to also take into account that the U.S. and Japan also share a lot of economic ties (which in i
132 Cubsrule : But is it enough? JL's troubles are not new - presumably, if the US had gone to Japan about open skies a year or two ago, a similar deal could have b
133 LAXtoATL : Who knows. I think it is. I am not saying Japan can just say if you want OpenSkies gives us ATI no questions asked. I believe there were still be con
134 Cubsrule : How does it demonstrate desperation? The agreement gives US carriers next to nothing. ATI is the prize, not open skies.
135 LAXtoATL : The answer is in your response. You say that the OpenSkies agreement gives U.S. carriers next to nothing, and yet the U.S. agreed to the deal... so o
136 Cubsrule : In Chile or Peru or Europe, I agree wholeheartedly, but I'm not sure that's true vis a vis Japan. What does the US government gain from open skies wi
137 LAXtoATL : I will not challenge anything you said here because I personally don't have the adequate knowledge to do so. Does the U.S. gain anything from having
138 DLPMMM : You really don't seem to understand the political history and landscape. The USA did go to Japan about Open Skies ever year for over a decade. Japan
139 Cubsrule : But it does not allow anything more than the current bilateral apart from 4 flights to HND. Everything you have said is true when the status quo is q
140 LAXtoATL : It is also true as it applies to Japan as well, they have expressly said so. You may be correct that OpenSkies does not offer the U.S. anything in Ja
141 Cubsrule : The official stance is not with respect to this agreement specifically. That's my point.
142 LAXtoATL : Yes it was. They made the statement I was referencing specifically about Japan shortly after they reached the tentative agreement. That's my point.
143 Cubsrule : But ATI is a part of that. The government has said nothing about this open skies agreement absent ATI.
144 LAXtoATL : Yes they did. I am not going to keep this up with you. I know what I read if you choose to not believe me or ignore it then that is fine. But I will
145 Cubsrule : It has to. The Japanese government conditioned open skies on ATI. The tie between the two is unprecedented, but it's also undeniable here. Why don't
146 LAXtoATL : This is my last response on this topic... No, it does not have to. In fact as I pointed out you to it can not, they do not have jurisdiction. The Japa
147 Cubsrule : What do you mean? State doesn't approve ATI, but that doesn't mean that State doesn't (or can't, or shouldn't) communicate with DoT. If DoT isn't goi
148 Post contains links LAXtoATL : JAL received approval from its employees to cut their pension benefits to help offset the huge deficit the airline currently has with regard to fundin
149 PM : And I did! Two x SAAB 340 and two x MD81. Thoroughly enjoyable! And when did I last snag three new airports in one day?! HIW-KOJ-ASJ. Wonderful So, t
150 Avek00 : Question: Who wants to keep quoting the words of a soon-to-be-departed President of JAL as proof that JAL won't file bankruptcy, especially in light o
151 Post contains links Nicholaschee : JAL to declare bankruptcy on 19 JAN 2010. http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stori...ific_business/view/1029555/1/.html
152 Avek00 : " target=_blank>http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stori....html My point exactly. Those who swore on a stack of Bibles/Korans/Torahs/Vedas/books of ethi
153 LAXdude1023 : Now the question becomes, does this make JL file for a decision faster? Or will this push the JL/AA/DL quagmire to the back burner?
154 LAXtoATL : I say it is all part of the same restructuring package. The same people that are crafting the court-led restructuring have identified which routes an
155 Peanuts : Since all we can do is "speculate all day long", I stand by my earlier (post #15) observation: Delta "handed" JAL their playbook. It's an "honest" obs
156 LAXtoATL : You might very well be right. AA also commented just last week that they still thought JL could restructure and would be better off without a trip th
157 Cubsrule : In words, yes. But US bankruptcy law is quite unique, so it's unlikely that DL can offer much practical advice. I wonder, though, how much the choice
158 Jetlanta : You have to think that the significant downsizing being proposed makes a Delta/SkyTeam link up even more appealing.
159 LAXtoATL : Its not the bankruptcy itself, but the process of reinventing the company after/during the legal process. (and although I know very little about the
160 LAXtoATL : Let me put it to you this way... Knowing that JL is getting ready to scale back operations. Do you think the routes / operations of your partner/alli
161 Cubsrule : But at this point, they don't need to ask the "what" question. They simply need to ask the "how many" question. An alliance with AA will see more fly
162 DLPMMM : Not even close. A joint venture ATI type of arrangement would look very different with AA than JL. We are talking about the route structure of the en
163 LAXtoATL : You can't really believe that they are just going to choose an arbitrary number of routes to cut do you? They are choosing the what and that will det
164 Jetlanta : Cubs, my point is that JAL is going to be cutting a LOT fo flying, at DL JV can replace much of what JAL has to cut out of its own network, perservin
165 Cubsrule : ...which is completely different in Japan, as the bankruptcy "toolbox" is different. For instance... Can Japanese companies reject executory contract
166 LAXtoATL : You are listening to me. I said it is not so much the bankruptcy process which will be largely managed by lawyers, but the process of reinventing the
167 Cubsrule : It's important, I think, to separate the advantages Delta has here from the areas in which Delta and American are basically equivalent. In terms of o
168 Jetlanta : Huh? Cubs, JAL's network needs to be as big as possible. The more ground it cedes to ANA, the worse off it will be in the long term. This isn't rocke
169 Cubsrule : Which is it?
170 Jetlanta : Well, my friend, here is where your reasoning fails. JAL needs to cut flying on its OWN metal while retaining network reach. That is what Delta and S
171 Cubsrule : Why? That's probably true if, post bankruptcy, DL/AA have lower costs. But we have no idea whether or not that will be true.
172 Jetlanta : Because they've said so. Cutting 13,000 jobs and 50 routes. By necessity, they need strong partners after this...more than ever.
173 DLPMMM : Those are minor details. The exact tools don't matter. That is like saying that one ham sandwich is completely different than another ham sandwich be
174 Golli : In such a scenario, why would an AA partnership make more sense?? Golli
175 Cubsrule : If everything JL says is correct, why are they in this mess? Right. But Delta only has experience with one set of ingredients. Your points go toward
176 LAXtoATL : JL is not the one who made the statement. ETIC who is in control of this process said so. No it does not. The operational needs of business determine
177 Cubsrule : Domestic service and a military contract that is about to end. AA's utilization is also rather poor, though some of that is a result of their heavy f
178 Post contains links LAXtoATL : http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-...?mod=WSJ_Deals_LEFTLatestHeadlines Although I have said numerous times that the amount of cash offered would no
179 Cubsrule : With no investment, I see two advantages for AA. I have no idea whether either one is enough (any more, I'm not sure that ETIC knows what it wants):
180 DLPMMM : Because the pension issue has already been settled. The required 2/3 of the retirees have already agreed to have their pensions cut. While you seem t
181 LAXtoATL : How many frames and types are dedicated to charter and domestic ops? Poor utilization is not something is going to change any time soon. That is a ne
182 Cubsrule : But AA can add (and would add) more Japan flying, and perhaps intra-Asia flying too. The fact that AA does not have it today doesn't necessarily mean
183 Cubsrule : Some of it is (as I acknowledged) and some of it isn't. The 2.5-3 hour turns from domestic flights are not a network problem. Delta has 1 333 and a b
184 Peanuts : This WSJ article is very telling. Things are unraveling... It's getting really dicey now for AA. JAL wants to partner with a sizable NRT competitor.
185 LAXtoATL : 1) JL already has access to those markets on their own metal, plus DL also provides access to L.A. 2) You know I don't believe ATI will be problem fo
186 Cubsrule : Surely, though, you'd agree that AA is stronger than DL in both Chicago and L.A., wouldn't you? I think DL/JL would remain in LA; I'm not sure about
187 Peanuts : I agree. ORD-NRT was a classic NW route. If it makes sense, it will come back. Maybe more of a 787 route even. BOS-NRT would come online as well, I'd
188 LAXtoATL : This is why it so difficult maintaining a discussion with you. Clearly you have no idea about AA's operations and will state information as fact. Con
189 Cubsrule : All right. Let's distill that list in to facts: 1) AA does a lot of domestic flying on international widebodies. 2) Some of that flying is required t
190 LAXtoATL : It would have been better if you would have just provided an accurate list of aircraft that represent excess domestic capacity or say that you don't
191 Golli : I just wanted a clarification on your statement. But the way I see it, both AA & DL have an equal chance of shrinking to profitability, who will be m
192 NYCAdvantage : I don't know this is bad for AA from any point of view, I do not see anything positive in that statement from ETIC, Synergies basically means DL, unle
193 MAH4546 : No, they are mostly not. AA has so much extra wide body capacity right now that they have chartered out some 763/777s to the military through Septemb
194 Jetlanta : As was stated, JL ISN'T saying it...ETIC is. I'm not sure you are actually paying attention. Umm DL is actually bigger in the LAX-NRT market than AA
195 Jetlanta : Mark, I completely disagree. ATI is NOT going to be the issue here. Delta won't allow it to be. It's terrible news for AA. They upped the bid to $1.4
196 Post contains links Golli : Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 193): No, they are mostly not. OK then, if you say so. I'll re-phrase; "Surely few of these are downtime flights"?? After all t
197 NYCAdvantage : Mark I usually agree with you but this time I don't, here is a quote from Ed Bastian from last Friday after AA up their offer, "the focus should be on
198 MAH4546 : I don't disagree with you on the latter. What I disagree with you is Delta and JAL's ability to create an ATI that will both be approved and not requ
199 Post contains images Peanuts : There is a lot going on behind the scenes right now. BK is bad enough of an embarrassment for JAL. They will not announce their "partner" until some h
200 Kiwiandrew : Sorry for going off topic , but I just dont see this happening , OZ has a very strong relationship with NH , including a limited mutual shareholding
201 MAH4546 : Sorry, but I just don't see that. ATI will not be made easier just to please Japan. I know many people disagree, but I stand by my opinion that nothi
202 Kiwiandrew : I agree that ATI will not necessarily be granted to DL/JL if DL is chosen as partner , but I do think the situation is somewhat different compared to
203 Peanuts : Actually, we agree here. Japan is not getting "special" treatment by any means. The US is getting something out of it as well. Three of "its" airline
204 MAH4546 : I entirely agree, but the U.S. will closely scrutinize the creation of a U.S.-Japan duopoly. It's not going to be easy.
205 Post contains links MAH4546 : Latest report as of 30 minutes ago now seems to indicate that DAL and AMR might be invited to invest after new management is put into place, presumabl
206 Avek00 : Don't rule out ANA altogether just yet - it's entirely possible the carrier will respond with a full-blown merger proposal.
207 Cubsrule : New York is probably a wash. Consolidation opportunities are about a wash (AA has ORD; DL has HNL, though HNL-NRT would almost certainly be fenced ou
208 Peanuts : Correct me if I'm wrong but I was under the impression ONLY UA and NW(DL) had 5th freedom rights from Japan. AA cannot do what UA and DL do from NRT.
209 Cubsrule : Given that the negotiated open skies agreement is open skies in name only, I doubt the US values it much. With the exception of 299 and 1751, which s
210 Cubsrule : Today, that is true, but after open skies it will not be.
211 Jetlanta : NW has been flying those markets for DECADES. Cubs, I gotta say that you are trying WAY to hard to make this look like AA is a comparable match for D
212 Cubsrule : Correct - DL took decisive action to get the routes (merging with NW). There's no ridiculous argument. You make it sound like I think AA has this in
213 LAXtoATL : Once again I am not interested in somebody pulling a flight schedule to show widebody availability! In addition to the errors I pointed out to in you
214 Cubsrule : But there are no airframes sitting around. AA doesn't deal with excess capacity that way (never has, AFAIK). By and large, DL doesn't either.
215 AAExecPlat : LAXtoATL. What is the list of DL's excess widebodies (in frames)? Let's assume AA has none, which are DL's? Thanks.
216 Jetlanta : Oh brother. Agree on Point 1. On Point 2, are you kidding??? AA has NRT service to precisely two genuine hubs, ORD and DFW. DL has service to JFK, AT
217 LAXtoATL : Airframes don't have to be sitting around idle for the airline to know which ones are excess capacity. Although you don't have it that information is
218 Cubsrule : I'd add MIA and maybe ORD to that list (I think either partnership would add BOS) I'm really torn on whether DL/JL would be able to make ORD work. NW
219 Post contains links Golli : I think it is clear that if there is anyone with HUGE interest in this matter, it's the Government of Japan. A "wash"? Do you mean AA & DL have simil
220 Cubsrule : They do, and I think that means a similar advantage going forward. Either airline would have to take an aircraft off of an existing route or routes t
221 LAXtoATL : I know that no specific airframe by registration number is assigned to any route. However there is 1 777 assigned as a spare in this situation. The a
222 Cubsrule : But what is "assignment as a spare?" If my 763 goes to Europe if needed as a spare and, if not, goes to LAX half empty, is it a spare?
223 LAXtoATL : That list is meaningless. He should not be using a flight schedule to make the conclusions that he made, and he is providing you with misleading info
224 LAXtoATL : A spare is a spare and is assigned as such for operational purposes. A spare aircraft is part of the operational network and cannot be assigned to ne
225 Cubsrule : The conclusion I made was that AA has a lot of widebody routes on which the widebodies are not needed. That is a safe conclusion. I have not made (an
226 LAXtoATL : No that is not what you said. And even this statement is false. You have a 777 on that list operating LAX-MIA that is absolutely needed on that route
227 Post contains links LAXtoATL : http://search.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/nn20100111a1.html According to this article, the retirees have not yet agreed to the proposed pension cuts and
228 LAXtoATL : A little dated, but still a great read! Thanks.
229 Cubsrule : Which of those statements is false? Or are you quibbling with my statement that, at present, AA has a lot of excess widebody capacity? The assertion
230 Golli : Allthough dated, and couple of routes have come and gone, it shows the (spiderweb) AA system. Such a system would be a considerable task to unwind, I
231 Cjpark : Maybe I am missing something but what LCC competition does JAL face on intra-Asian routes to and from Japan?
232 MAH4546 : AA also does a lot of short-haul 763 flying from MIA and JFK internationally. Port Au Prince sees three 763s a day, for example. AA has excess widebo
233 Cubsrule : In fairness, though, PAP (and some other destinations in that part of the world) probably need the 763 for its ability to carry cargo and bags.
234 AAExecPlat : LAXtoATL. I guess we should state for the record that despite your constant hassling of Cubsrule about how his excess capacity analysis is plain wrong
235 Golli : No, I belive they dont actually. DL is in a better position to fine-tune the capacity although I dont think anything less than a 77E would be profita
236 Cubsrule : But if a 77E is the right aircraft, why aren't DL and AA equal there?
237 MAH4546 : Yes, but truth be told, if AA gets into a desperate situation in Asia, the 763s are gone from those routes except PAP. PAP is really the only one whe
238 Golli : Thanks for that explanation Mark. I had not come across anything "newer" or even remotely as detailed on the subject. And I remember that thread, whe
239 Golli : Because DL has A332's to cut capacity and 744's to infuse capacity. I did not say that the 77E is the right/essential aircraft. I just think that ope
240 LAXtoATL : What conclusions of mine would you like me to provide supporting data? (quote what I said because I think you are assuming I made statements that I d
241 Cubsrule : 3305 is stored (that's the NW ship number, which I don't think Delta is changing). Delta still owns 172, 173, 186, and 194 but reportedly (as of seve
242 Post contains links Moderators : With this thread now approaching 250 posts, please continue the discussion here: JAL Weighs Bankruptcy Filing Part 2. (by Moderators Jan 10 2010 in Ci
Top Of Page
Forum Index

This topic is archived and can not be replied to any more.

Printer friendly format

Similar topics:More similar topics...
Reuters: UA Bankruptcy Filing In Place posted Mon Dec 9 2002 00:27:14 by Ryu2
TWA's Last Bankruptcy Filing posted Wed Dec 4 2002 05:10:23 by UAL1837
Fairchild Bankruptcy Filing Imminent? posted Fri Mar 29 2002 06:44:09 by JonPaulGeoRngo
UAL: Bankruptcy Filing Not An Option posted Sun Dec 23 2001 02:46:14 by United Airline
Rumor: US Filing Bankruptcy Today? posted Tue Aug 18 2009 07:30:15 by ADXMatt
Impact Of DL Filing Bankruptcy. posted Mon Sep 12 2005 18:41:24 by B707Stu
Delta Air Seen Filing Bankruptcy Before Oct. 17 posted Wed Sep 7 2005 18:26:21 by KarlB737
How Can Delta Avoid Filing For Bankruptcy? posted Fri Aug 26 2005 01:32:06 by Flydl2atl
Sun Country Airlines Filing For Bankruptcy posted Thu Dec 6 2001 04:47:36 by SCXmechanic
JAL Likely To Choose Delta Over American posted Fri Dec 18 2009 02:22:15 by DL Widget Head