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US-Brazil / Brazil-US Traffic July 2009  
User currently offlineLipeGIG From Brazil, joined May 2005, 11456 posts, RR: 58
Posted (4 years 10 months 1 week 2 days 8 hours ago) and read 3137 times:
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While i wait for my flight GIG-JFK, i decide to bring some interesting news with the details on the traffic between Brazil and US on July 2009. The month is showing how busy the market is becoming after a very bad Iata winter 2008/2009.

With a few exception, July shows very strong numbers on the 80's, some routes even on the 90's and cargo recovering (at least in the volume).

Market Share
-------------------------------

Total Seats: 343.989 assentos

AMERICAN --- 28.59%
TAM----------- 21.43%
DELTA-------- 15.24%
Continental---- 6.67%
United-----------6.65%
JAL--------------1.72%
Korean----------1.40%


Load factor:

Continental - 90.28%
Delta--------- 87.83%
United ------- 85.57%
American---- 83.32%
TAM............74.75%
JAL------------68.98%
Korean--------68.56%

Routes per Load Factor (top 25)

1- DL ATL-GRU 94.48%
2- DL GIG-ATL 93.89%
3- DL GRU-ATL 93.81%
4- JJ GRU-MIA 92.18%
5- AA GIG-MIA 91.29%
6- CO GIG-GRU-IAH 91.28%
7- AA CNF-MIA 91.18%
8- DL ATL-GIG 91.14%
9- CO GRU-EWR 90.86%
10- DL JFK-GRU 90,09%
11- CO IAH-GRU-GIG 89.73%
12- AA JFK-GRU-GIG 89.27%
13- CO EWR-GRU 89.10%
14- DL GRU-JFK 88.60%
15- UA GRU-ORD 87.30%
16- UA ORD-GRU 86.30%
17- AA DFW-GRU 86.24%
18- UA IAD-GRU-GIG 84.62%
19- UA GIG-GRU-IAD 84.62%
20- JJ MIA-GRU 84.05%
21- AA MIA-CNF 83.86%
22- AA DFW-GRU 83.19%
23- JJ MIA-SSA 83.17%
24- JJ GIG-JFK 83.09%
25- DL GRU-LAX 82.71%

Worst performers:

JJ MIA-MAO / MAO-MIA with around 46%
KE GRU-LAX with 57.46%

JAL is a little better with 68% average.



I will continue later with a few more info!

Regards
Felipe


New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
23 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently offlineHardiwv From Brazil, joined Oct 2004, 8780 posts, RR: 49
Reply 1, posted (4 years 10 months 1 week 2 days 8 hours ago) and read 3127 times:

Lipe -

Thanks for the update on US-Brazil market which shows strong performance.

Quoting LipeGIG (Thread starter):
KE GRU-LAX with 57.46%

I got info that KE plans to implement red-eye schedule for this flight. DL shows very good results on LAX-GRU (+80%)nwhich explains why the airline decide to effect the flight again.

Rgs from busy GRU waiting for KL GRU-AMS on C (100% load in all classes with overbook). TD just took off, no surprise, late as usual...

Rgs,

[Edited 2010-01-18 13:36:18 by hardiwv]

User currently offlineMAH4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 33179 posts, RR: 71
Reply 2, posted (4 years 10 months 1 week 2 days 7 hours ago) and read 3086 times:



Quoting Hardiwv (Reply 1):
DL shows very good results on LAX-GRU (+80%)nwhich explains why the airline decide to effect the flight again.

Obviously not good enough. Flight is canceled for March and April and will only operate 2x weekly starting in June.



a.
User currently offlineIncitatus From Brazil, joined Feb 2005, 4047 posts, RR: 13
Reply 3, posted (4 years 10 months 1 week 2 days 6 hours ago) and read 3008 times:

How is it that JJ load factor in and out of MCO is only about 70% in July? Is it an error? Should it not be in the upper 90s?


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User currently offlineLipeGIG From Brazil, joined May 2005, 11456 posts, RR: 58
Reply 4, posted (4 years 10 months 1 week 2 days 6 hours ago) and read 2979 times:
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Quoting Hardiwv (Reply 1):
Rgs from busy GRU waiting for KL GRU-AMS on C (100% load in all classes with overbook). TD just took off, no surprise, late as usual

January ! Just got at GRU, in which lounge you are ?

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 2):
Obviously not good enough. Flight is canceled for March and April and will only operate 2x weekly starting in June.

July is a busy month and they can sustain it till mid-August, but for sure it's not a good alternative during off-peak.

Quoting Incitatus (Reply 3):
How is it that JJ load factor in and out of MCO is only about 70% in July? Is it an error? Should it not be in the upper 90s?

Yes but could be a matter of wrong pricing. If MIA got 80%/90%, MCO in July should got it also.



New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
User currently offlineSJOtoLIR From Costa Rica, joined Jul 2007, 4584 posts, RR: 4
Reply 5, posted (4 years 10 months 1 week 2 days 5 hours ago) and read 2929 times:



Quoting LipeGIG (Thread starter):
23- JJ MIA-SSA 83.17%

The north-eastern stations in Brazil didn't reach the list until the mark N°23.
With these results posted, DL ATL-FOR and the triangular AA MIA-SSA-REC-MIA are not getting stellar performances and the market hasn't reacted successfully yet to this new impulse offered to the mentioned zones of Brazil.
May the possible flights BSB-US follow a similar pattern ?




.

Quoting LipeGIG (Thread starter):
JJ MIA-MAO / MAO-MIA with around 46%

The current O&D demand doesn't seem to fit the capacity of JJ MIA-MAO with 763.
When the old JJ MIA-MAO-BEL-FOR 7x weekly with 320 was substituted with JJ MIA-MAO, the intended purpose consisted to offer dedicated services among the supposed bulky market named [MIA-MAO]. The real fact states that the introduction of larger planes did not match the initial idea.

Regards.



"Goin' up to the spirit in the sky"
User currently offlineWorldTraveler From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 6, posted (4 years 10 months 1 week 2 days 4 hours ago) and read 2907 times:

Once again, we see AA with the lowest load factor of the US carriers, with only JJ among the large operators between the US and Brazil recording a (substantially) lower LF. It is clear that JJ is fixated on a market saturation strategy while AA continues to dump capacity into the market in order to try to neutralize JJ's advances. The continued absence of AA's MIA-GRU RT from the top LF markets shows that AA has more capacity in the market than it can support.

User currently offlineIncitatus From Brazil, joined Feb 2005, 4047 posts, RR: 13
Reply 7, posted (4 years 10 months 1 week 2 days 3 hours ago) and read 2856 times:



Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 6):
Once again, we see AA with the lowest load factor of the US carriers, with only JJ among the large operators between the US and Brazil recording a (substantially) lower LF. It is clear that JJ is fixated on a market saturation strategy while AA continues to dump capacity into the market in order to try to neutralize JJ's advances. The continued absence of AA's MIA-GRU RT from the top LF markets shows that AA has more capacity in the market than it can support.

In short, you are saying that the two 800-lb gorillas in the US-Brazil market are fighting the big fight and whatever the small players like CO and DL do has little relevance. I agree.



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User currently offlineToobz From Finland, joined Jan 2010, 802 posts, RR: 0
Reply 8, posted (4 years 10 months 1 week 2 days 3 hours ago) and read 2845 times:

Very nice to see DL grabbing the top 3 spots!

User currently offlineIncitatus From Brazil, joined Feb 2005, 4047 posts, RR: 13
Reply 9, posted (4 years 10 months 1 week 2 days 3 hours ago) and read 2830 times:



Quoting SJOtoLIR (Reply 5):
The current O&D demand doesn't seem to fit the capacity of JJ MIA-MAO with 763.
When the old JJ MIA-MAO-BEL-FOR 7x weekly with 320 was substituted with JJ MIA-MAO, the intended purpose consisted to offer dedicated services among the supposed bulky market named [MIA-MAO]. The real fact states that the introduction of larger planes did not match the initial idea.

JJ's reasoning was a little more elaborated. The 763 was going to fly GIG-MIA and spend the whole day at MIA. MIA-MAO was doing well so why not take the 763 into MIA-MAO service with widebody capacity to stuff cargo and increase in seats. BEL and FOR passengers would continue to have service through MAO with a connection. Except that the 763 schedule on the MIA side sucks for connections, so it killed most travel through MIA. Then DL came along and took away some MAO and some FOR passengers.



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User currently offlineGlobalCabotage From United States of America, joined Nov 2009, 605 posts, RR: 0
Reply 10, posted (4 years 10 months 1 week 2 days 3 hours ago) and read 2810 times:

What type of yield is UA pulling on ORD-GRU? Do they connect to Asia via ORD? I know Motorolla loves this route.

15- UA GRU-ORD 87.30%
16- UA ORD-GRU 86.30%


User currently offlineCrosswinds21 From Netherlands, joined Jun 2009, 699 posts, RR: 0
Reply 11, posted (4 years 10 months 1 week 2 days 2 hours ago) and read 2788 times:



Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 6):
Once again, we see AA with the lowest load factor of the US carriers, with only JJ among the large operators between the US and Brazil recording a (substantially) lower LF. It is clear that JJ is fixated on a market saturation strategy while AA continues to dump capacity into the market in order to try to neutralize JJ's advances. The continued absence of AA's MIA-GRU RT from the top LF markets shows that AA has more capacity in the market than it can support.

And what's wrong with AA putting extra capacity on MIA-GRU in order to compete with other airlines? It's probably better than what they could alternatively use the 777s on at the current moment anyway.

AA's LFs can be probably explained by:

1. Like you said, all that excess capacity on MIA-GRU.

2. Starting service to SSA/REC/CNF, which is still relatively new and beginning to gain ground.

Sure, DL can get ~95% on its ATL-GRU route, on which they have one daily 764 flight, compared to AA's 3 (sometimes 4) daily flights on the 777.


User currently offlineSJOtoLIR From Costa Rica, joined Jul 2007, 4584 posts, RR: 4
Reply 12, posted (4 years 10 months 1 week 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 2657 times:



Quoting Crosswinds21 (Reply 11):
AA's LFs can be probably explained by:

1. Like you said, all that excess capacity on MIA-GRU.

Notice that JJ GRU-MIA grants a 93% of occupancy and this is not precisely a sign of excess of seats between these stations.
If AA got a load factor of 83%, some segments are deterring its average and AA MIA-SSA-REC-MIA seems to be the weakest part in that equation.

Regards.



"Goin' up to the spirit in the sky"
User currently offlineSJOtoLIR From Costa Rica, joined Jul 2007, 4584 posts, RR: 4
Reply 13, posted (4 years 10 months 1 week 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 2532 times:



Quoting SJOtoLIR (Reply 12):
If AA got a load factor of 83%, some segments are deterring its average and AA MIA-SSA-REC-MIA seems to be the weakest part in that equation.

I have checked the official figures by myself in order to corroborate the initial hypothesis:

..............Route...........................Available seats..........Passengers...........Load factor
AA MIA-SSA-REC-MIA..................12 333.......................7984........................65%
Filter period: July 2009.
Source: US DOT.

The point has been demonstrated.


Regards.



"Goin' up to the spirit in the sky"
User currently offlineHeeseokKoo From South Korea, joined Jan 2005, 653 posts, RR: 1
Reply 14, posted (4 years 10 months 1 week 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 2523 times:



Quoting Hardiwv (Reply 1):
I got info that KE plans to implement red-eye schedule for this flight.

I'm excited to hear that. Still this summer 2010 and winter 2010 schedules are daytime northbound, but let's see. DL's LAX load factor was good, but they will reduce to 2/w from May, after a couple of months of suspension (Mar/Apr).


User currently offlineB752os From United States of America, joined Dec 2005, 1322 posts, RR: 0
Reply 15, posted (4 years 10 months 1 week 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 2475 times:

Which of the USA-Brazil routes is the most profitable?

Does any one city command a fare premium over the others?


User currently offlineCrosswinds21 From Netherlands, joined Jun 2009, 699 posts, RR: 0
Reply 16, posted (4 years 10 months 1 week 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 2460 times:



Quoting SJOtoLIR (Reply 12):
Notice that JJ GRU-MIA grants a 93% of occupancy and this is not precisely a sign of excess of seats between these stations.
If AA got a load factor of 83%, some segments are deterring its average and AA MIA-SSA-REC-MIA seems to be the weakest part in that equation.

But JJ also has much less capacity - something like 10 or 11 weekly flights on an A330 compared to AA's 3 or 4 daily flights on the B777. So it would be expected that the LF on JJ is higher. Also, I don't know about J, F, and full Y fares, but I believe that AA commands a premium over its competitors on this route.

Quoting SJOtoLIR (Reply 13):
I have checked the official figures by myself in order to corroborate the initial hypothesis:

..............Route...........................Available seats..........Passengers...........Load factor
AA MIA-SSA-REC-MIA..................12 333.......................7984........................65%
Filter period: July 2009.
Source: US DOT.

The point has been demonstrated.

How exactly is LF measured on this route? Would it be in the same way as regular flights? This is a triangle flight with no local traffic rights on SSA-REC. Is an "available seat" here counted in the same way for MIA-SSA and MIA-SSA-REC? What about occupancy? Just curious...


User currently offlineSJOtoLIR From Costa Rica, joined Jul 2007, 4584 posts, RR: 4
Reply 17, posted (4 years 10 months 1 week 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 2427 times:



Quoting Crosswinds21 (Reply 16):
How exactly is LF measured on this route? Would it be in the same way as regular flights? This is a triangle flight with no local traffic rights on SSA-REC. Is an "available seat" here counted in the same way for MIA-SSA and MIA-SSA-REC?

The US DoT reported the figures for the US outbound flight into MIA-SSA. On the opposite, the data for the inbound portion named REC-MIA was taking into consideration separately.
Having these inputs, the above amounts are generated simply adding the total of passengers as well as the whole seats of the plane in each segment monthly.
I would prefer to make these analyses considering the two-ways of traffic, though.

Regards.



"Goin' up to the spirit in the sky"
User currently offlineLipeGIG From Brazil, joined May 2005, 11456 posts, RR: 58
Reply 18, posted (4 years 10 months 1 week 11 hours ago) and read 2318 times:
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Quoting SJOtoLIR (Reply 5):
The current O&D demand doesn't seem to fit the capacity of JJ MIA-MAO with 763.

It's recovering. Now they are better, i believe on the 70's on low season and 80's on high season.

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 6):
The continued absence of AA's MIA-GRU RT from the top LF markets shows that AA has more capacity in the market than it can support

Month after month we will see a recovering of MIA-GRU, but still, it's for sure excessive capacity that reduce yields.

Quoting Incitatus (Reply 9):
JJ's reasoning was a little more elaborated. The 763 was going to fly GIG-MIA and spend the whole day at MIA. MIA-MAO was doing well so why not take the 763 into MIA-MAO service with widebody capacity to stuff cargo and increase in seats

But they could run in better way:

GIG-MIA / MIA-MAO-GIG
MIA-GIG / GIG-MAO-MIA

This would allow TAM to offer better schedule than the (very) early morning MIA-MAO as well as to offer a daylight non-stop service between Rio and Manaus with B763

Quoting GlobalCabotage (Reply 10):
What type of yield is UA pulling on ORD-GRU? Do they connect to Asia via ORD? I know Motorolla loves this route.

15- UA GRU-ORD 87.30%
16- UA ORD-GRU 86.30%

This is summer season, in which you have for sure a lot of leisure traffic. I don't know about UA operations.

Quoting B752os (Reply 15):
Which of the USA-Brazil routes is the most profitable?

In my view, DL ATL-GRU and ATL-GIG, AA MIA-GIG and DFW-GRU, JJ MIA-GRU and soon CO IAH-GIG,



New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
User currently offlineMAH4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 33179 posts, RR: 71
Reply 19, posted (4 years 10 months 1 week 8 hours ago) and read 2246 times:



Quoting Crosswinds21 (Reply 16):
But JJ also has much less capacity - something like 10 or 11 weekly flights on an A330 compared to AA's 3 or 4 daily flights on the B777

AA is 21x weekly year-round; 23w during peak.

JJ is 14x weekly year-round; 18w during peak.



a.
User currently offlineLipeGIG From Brazil, joined May 2005, 11456 posts, RR: 58
Reply 20, posted (4 years 10 months 4 days 3 hours ago) and read 2080 times:
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Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 19):
AA is 21x weekly year-round; 23w during peak.

JJ is 14x weekly year-round; 18w during peak.

The future is, we will see more service to places like BSB, VCP, POA, CNF, SSA, REC, FOR and even GIG.



New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
User currently offlineShaq From Panama, joined Jun 2007, 381 posts, RR: 0
Reply 21, posted (4 years 10 months 4 days 2 hours ago) and read 2053 times:



Quoting B752os (Reply 15):
Which of the USA-Brazil routes is the most profitable?

Does any one city command a fare premium over the others?

I am thinking of IAH-GIG
BusinessFirst is always full in these flights



Studying hard, for flying right!
User currently offlineCrAAzy From United States of America, joined Jan 2008, 800 posts, RR: 0
Reply 22, posted (4 years 10 months 4 days ago) and read 2024 times:
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Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 6):
Once again, we see AA with the lowest load factor of the US carriers, with only JJ among the large operators between the US and Brazil recording a (substantially) lower LF. It is clear that JJ is fixated on a market saturation strategy while AA continues to dump capacity into the market in order to try to neutralize JJ's advances. The continued absence of AA's MIA-GRU RT from the top LF markets shows that AA has more capacity in the market than it can support.

Once again it bears pointing out that load factor doesn't equal profit for a flight. Additionally, if AA is outselling it's F and/or C cabins on these flights or needs a certain amount of premium seats to keep it's corporate contracts one can argue there may not enough capacity.

[Edited 2010-01-23 21:40:13 by crAAzy]

User currently offlineLipeGIG From Brazil, joined May 2005, 11456 posts, RR: 58
Reply 23, posted (4 years 10 months 3 days 23 hours ago) and read 2015 times:
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Quoting Shaq (Reply 21):
I am thinking of IAH-GIG
BusinessFirst is always full in these flights

Not only BusinessFirst is a very strong performer, but have to remember fares are very high, there was never a sale for this route, but also that it's a very good O&D business market.

Quoting CrAAzy (Reply 22):
Once again it bears pointing out that load factor doesn't equal profit for a flight. Additionally, if AA is selling outselling it's F and/or C cabins on these flights or needs a certain amount of premium seats to keep it's corporate contracts one can argue there may not enough capacity.

It's not the case CrAAzy. These flights are easy to book on premium classes even for Advantage tickets. I still believe there's some excessive capacity.



New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
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