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Future Of DFW - Japan Routes  
User currently offlineGdg9 From United States of America, joined Jun 2005, 623 posts, RR: 0
Posted (4 years 7 months 3 days 23 hours ago) and read 3113 times:

With JAL now filing bankruptcy and quite possibly dropping out of One World and severing alliance ties with AA, what does this hold for DFW-Tokyo and any other DFW-Japan routes?

I believe that AA's 2x daily DFW-NRT routes (61/175) do quite well right now. It would seem, at first glance, that AA may lose a lot of feed on their DFW-NRT route if JAL drops out of One World... Does this open up the possibility of ANA (Star Alliance) starting a DFW route?

On another note, DFW-KIX has been tried twice by AA, both times being canceled in short order. I think maybe even JAL tried it years ago as well? Is this route done for good, by any carrier?

Let's not forget that DFW was given recent Fifth Freedom routes to Haneda as well. Is anyone sniffing around that route?

Thoughts?

17 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently onlineLAXdude1023 From India, joined Sep 2006, 7539 posts, RR: 25
Reply 1, posted (4 years 7 months 3 days 23 hours ago) and read 3066 times:

The future of DFW-Japan without JAL codesharing or partnering with AA is simple.

One daily DFW-NRT flight on AA. Thats it.

I believe AA will find another codeshare partner in that part of Asia (perhaps from another alliance). AA could start a flight from DFW to that carriers hub and be very successful.

There are persistant rumors of AA starting DFW-ICN at AA. But who knows?



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User currently offlineBMI727 From United States of America, joined Feb 2009, 15727 posts, RR: 26
Reply 2, posted (4 years 7 months 3 days 23 hours ago) and read 3052 times:



Quoting Gdg9 (Thread starter):
I believe that AA's 2x daily DFW-NRT routes (61/175) do quite well right now. It would seem, at first glance, that AA may lose a lot of feed on their DFW-NRT route if JAL drops out of One World

I doubt it will change much. Maybe they will drop it down to 10 weekly or something, but I don't expect a drastic reduction. I think that DFW-NRT can do just fine on its own.

Quoting Gdg9 (Thread starter):
Does this open up the possibility of ANA (Star Alliance) starting a DFW route?

Possibly, but I think that they could have made it work anyway. I'm not sure that a potential JAL defection would change much there.

The biggest change that may result is that this might open up the possibility for a DFW-HKG flight.



Why do Aerospace Engineering students have to turn things in on time?
User currently offlineLAXintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 25052 posts, RR: 46
Reply 3, posted (4 years 7 months 3 days 22 hours ago) and read 2990 times:

I've heard from AA LAX staff that about 50% of AA NRT passengers are beyond connections on JL and CX.
So loosing JAL will certainly put a big damper on the traffic, forcing AA to work much harder to instead focus on local O&D and subsequent likely dilution of revenue as heavier discounting must take place.

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 1):
One daily DFW-NRT flight on AA. Thats it.

 checkmark  Yes I can see single daily be supported. I have my doubts however about Narita service from LAX or JFK while ORD I suppose should be able to hang on also due to its hub nature.

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 2):
The biggest change that may result is that this might open up the possibility for a DFW-HKG flight.


Now that would be a long flight! 8123miles. Need to wait on the 787, and even that is a stretch.



From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
User currently offlineAznMadSci From United States of America, joined Dec 2007, 3661 posts, RR: 5
Reply 4, posted (4 years 7 months 3 days 22 hours ago) and read 2985 times:



Quoting Gdg9 (Thread starter):
Does this open up the possibility of ANA (Star Alliance) starting a DFW route?

I highly doubt it, especially when CO/NH/UA ATI gets approved. If NH does start DEN when they get their 787s, that places DFW in between 2 rather close Star hubs, DEN and IAH.

Quoting Gdg9 (Thread starter):
Let's not forget that DFW was given recent Fifth Freedom routes to Haneda as well. Is anyone sniffing around that route?

When did the airport get awarded 5th Freedom from HND? I thought an airline gets 5th Freedom grated by the stop-over country. Also, I thought slots have not been released for HND, yet.



The journey of life is not based on the accomplishments, but the experience.
User currently onlineLAXdude1023 From India, joined Sep 2006, 7539 posts, RR: 25
Reply 5, posted (4 years 7 months 3 days 22 hours ago) and read 2948 times:



Quoting LAXintl (Reply 3):
Now that would be a long flight! 8123miles. Need to wait on the 787, and even that is a stretch.

I have heard rumors of DFW being a tag on from an additional YVR flight. Ive also heard rumors of a DFW-HKG flight with a stop at ANC to capitalize on Cargo opprotunities (while scaling down CX cargo opps at DFW a bit). But again those are just rumors and the source I got them from has been hit or miss in the past.

Either way, what AA needs to do is either:

1) Find a way to keep JL as a codeshare partner even if they go to SkyTeam.
2) Find a codeshare partner in Northeast Asia (even if they are with another alliance). Then Connect DFW to that hub. That is fully feasible and can be done. Hell, they are doing it right now.

That would fix everything.



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User currently offlineFxramper From United States of America, joined Dec 2005, 7247 posts, RR: 85
Reply 6, posted (4 years 7 months 3 days 22 hours ago) and read 2928 times:
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I appreciate the allegiance to DFW, but I don't see DFW-Asia expansion for AA in the near future even if JL leaves OneWorld.

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 1):
AA starting DFW-ICN at AA

Again, as much as I want more international flights from DFW, if AA goes to ICN, it'll be from ORD or LAX.

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 2):
I think that DFW-NRT can do just fine on its own

Agreed.

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 2):
DFW-HKG flight.

Again, it would be ORD-HKG.

 twocents 


User currently offlineFlyDreamliner From United States of America, joined Jan 2006, 2759 posts, RR: 15
Reply 7, posted (4 years 7 months 3 days 22 hours ago) and read 2848 times:



Quoting Fxramper (Reply 6):
Quoting BMI727 (Reply 2):
DFW-HKG flight.

Again, it would be ORD-HKG.

I agree... DFW-HKG would be the longest 77E route in the world, roughly 650sm longer than AA's longest ORD-DEL. Even if they got the pilots on board, there would still be technical issues here. Also, geographically, DFW is backtracking to nearly everywhere from HKG.

Quoting Fxramper (Reply 6):
Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 1):
AA starting DFW-ICN at AA

Again, as much as I want more international flights from DFW, if AA goes to ICN, it'll be from ORD or LAX.

ORD is the only possibility I see for AA to ICN. DFW isn't the largest market to ICN, especially without onward connections in Asia and KE is already established. KE owns LAX-ICN with on some days up to like 5 flights. ORD has possibilities, though.



"Let the world change you, and you can change the world"
User currently offlineMAH4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 32689 posts, RR: 72
Reply 8, posted (4 years 7 months 3 days 21 hours ago) and read 2761 times:



Quoting LAXintl (Reply 3):

checkmark Yes I can see single daily be supported. I have my doubts however about Narita service from LAX or JFK while ORD I suppose should be able to hang on also due to its hub nature.

LAX/JFK-TYO will be fine. AA is big enough locally in both and will just have to re-focus the markets to grab more local O&D.

No doubt AA will apply for Haneda rights - regardless of whether or not JAL stays on as a partner. I expect they will apply from LA. Without JAL, then, LAX-NRT could simply be replaced with LAX-HND; with JAL, AA will fly them side-by-side.

The second DFW-NRT will be gone, and I expect the slot will be used for HNL-NRT.



a.
User currently onlineLAXdude1023 From India, joined Sep 2006, 7539 posts, RR: 25
Reply 9, posted (4 years 7 months 3 days 21 hours ago) and read 2737 times:



Quoting Fxramper (Reply 6):
I appreciate the allegiance to DFW, but I don't see DFW-Asia expansion for AA in the near future even if JL leaves OneWorld.

Again, what AA needs to do is find a codeshare partner in Northeast Asia and connect it with DFW. Thats it. Wherever it is, it doesnt really matter.

If you think about it, thats all they are doing now. They have one flight to NRT that would be there regardless and one flight that is there for connections past NRT. If they can find a new codeshare partner and connect DFW with it, the end result is the same. They still have one NRT flight and they would have one flight for connections through the partners hub.

As much as I would love DFW-HKG, wont happen until the 789 comes. Its about 6-8 years off.



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User currently offlineSATexan From United States of America, joined Jul 2009, 221 posts, RR: 0
Reply 10, posted (4 years 7 months 3 days 20 hours ago) and read 2618 times:

AFAIK, every major Asian carrier operates cargo flights to DFW. So clearly the cargo market exists. This coupled with a decent O&D to select Asian cities (such as ICN), connections to the South Eastern USA/Mexico and Latin America should make DFW-Asia expansion very viable. With little to no competition, AA would be wiser to look at DFW-Asia flights as opposed to ORD/JFK-Asia flights where the yields will be moth eaten.

That being said DFW-ICN and may be DFW-KIX are the only realistic possibilities at this time. HND will have scheduling issues. HKG will have equipment/payload issues. NGO and TPE simply wont work. PVG/PEK have pilot contract issues. If pilot contracts dont prevent AA from launching routes as some of you say then AA should definately consider launching DFW-China routes in the near future.


User currently offlineFlyDreamliner From United States of America, joined Jan 2006, 2759 posts, RR: 15
Reply 11, posted (4 years 7 months 3 days 20 hours ago) and read 2611 times:



Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 8):

The second DFW-NRT will be gone, and I expect the slot will be used for HNL-NRT.

I think it's safe to say that 2x DFW-NRT is a bad idea without the JL connections. Keeping it will destroy yields. I think moving either LAX or JFK from NRT to HND would be a great idea. I think that ORD-NRT could see its yields hurt pretty badly, competing then against JL, NH, and UA on the route.

Because of the competition, I think the way it has to go is either:

DFW-NRT from 2/day to 1/day.
JFK-NRT or LAX-NRT moves from NRT to HND.
AA adjusts their network to route more connecting traffic through ORD to NRT to help maintain yields (readjusting from cut 2nd DFW and flights switched from NRT to HND).

The opened slot by the vacated second DFW could go four possible places:

1) HNL-NRT. Low yield, highly competitive, vacation market... it's not going to make tons, but it will generate consistent revenue...

2) MIA-NRT: Geography cuts against this one, I know, but MIA is a top 5 metro area in the US without NRT service with a very large AA connecting hub to Latin/South America. It could be the point of choice for connecting traffic.

3) BOS-NRT - AA has solid standing in BOS, BOS has great O/D, and could probably support the non-stop. Not having connections on either side doesn't help a ton... but it could be swung.

4) Sell the slot. Clearly Japan is not going to be the nexus of AA or oneworld global strategy or Asian ops, draw down NRT operations to have an O/D presence and realloc



"Let the world change you, and you can change the world"
User currently onlineLAXdude1023 From India, joined Sep 2006, 7539 posts, RR: 25
Reply 12, posted (4 years 7 months 3 days 20 hours ago) and read 2584 times:



Quoting SATexan (Reply 10):
AA should definately consider launching DFW-China routes in the near future.

If AA can launch a much more extensive codeshare with MU or get CA to have a very extensive codeshare with AA, DFW-PEK/PVG would work with pilot approval. However, without an extensive codeshare, it wont happen.



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User currently onlineLAXdude1023 From India, joined Sep 2006, 7539 posts, RR: 25
Reply 13, posted (4 years 7 months 3 days 20 hours ago) and read 2560 times:



Quoting FlyDreamliner (Reply 11):

There is one possibility nobody has really thought of and that is to operate a route like DFW-NRT-SIN or ORD-NRT-BKK.

Its a bit far-fetched, but depending on how things play out, it might not be a bad idea. It would allow AA to keep connecting traffic through NRT for their current NRT flights.

But, they would be getting the lowest of low yields on the NRT-onward flights.



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User currently offlineSATexan From United States of America, joined Jul 2009, 221 posts, RR: 0
Reply 14, posted (4 years 7 months 3 days 19 hours ago) and read 2457 times:



Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 13):
There is one possibility nobody has really thought of and that is to operate a route like DFW-NRT-SIN or ORD-NRT-BKK.

Why not just change the second daily DFW-NRT to DFW-NRT-HKG?


User currently onlineLAXdude1023 From India, joined Sep 2006, 7539 posts, RR: 25
Reply 15, posted (4 years 7 months 3 days 19 hours ago) and read 2447 times:



Quoting SATexan (Reply 14):
Why not just change the second daily DFW-NRT to DFW-NRT-HKG?

Because they arent losing the ability to fly people from DFW to HKG on AA flight numbers with just one stop.

What they are losing is the ability to connect people with just one stop to SIN, SGN, and BKK on AA flight numbers with just one stop from DFW. Thats what they somehow need to fix. The fix will probably come in the form of a codeshare agreement another carrier in that part of Asia.



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User currently offlineZuluLima From United States of America, joined Jul 2007, 305 posts, RR: 3
Reply 16, posted (4 years 7 months 3 days 18 hours ago) and read 2425 times:

The second daily DFW-NRT flight isn't necessarily a goner. After DL pulled down the DFW hub everyone expected KE to drop DFW, but they remained, and have pretty good load factors even without a Sky Team partner. Good enough in fact that they're upgrading the route from 772 to 744 in August. If AA pulls one frequency, that only leaves the two daily flights from DFW to Asia. Given the huge amount of connections available on the Dallas end and the resident asian population here, I'm sure the second flight could remain viable.


I didn't get a 'Harumph' outta that guy!
User currently offlineGdg9 From United States of America, joined Jun 2005, 623 posts, RR: 0
Reply 17, posted (4 years 7 months 3 days 18 hours ago) and read 2345 times:

Quoting ZuluLima (Reply 16):
After DL pulled down the DFW hub everyone expected KE to drop DFW, but they remained, and have pretty good load factors even without a Sky Team partner. Good enough in fact that they're upgrading the route from 772 to 744 in August.

That's a very good point. In fact, Korean had 3x weekly flights, and after Delta dumped DFW they eventually went to 4x weekly for quite a while.

BTW ZuluLima, just saw your BA 744 shot on the DFW site... nice! I posted one that my father took as well of G-CIVY.

[Edited 2010-01-19 14:30:58 by gdg9]

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