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What If AA Joined SkyTeam?  
User currently offlineEnilria From Canada, joined Feb 2008, 6836 posts, RR: 14
Posted (4 years 2 months 3 weeks 4 days 12 hours ago) and read 7657 times:

I know it seems crazy, but OneWorld is doomed. SkyTeam used to have 3 large U.S. carriers in it, but now has one. There isn't that much route overlap, just some carve-outs at JFK. MIA, LAX, and DFW would be great additions to SkyTeam. ORD is too close to DTW, but CLE was even closer.

AA could play the "if you can't beat 'em join 'em card" assuming they fail with fighting JAL's JV with Delta.

59 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineHeathrow From United Kingdom, joined Sep 2005, 967 posts, RR: 0
Reply 1, posted (4 years 2 months 3 weeks 4 days 12 hours ago) and read 7655 times:

Oneworld is doomed?? Excuse me? I don't see AA leaving Oneworld any time in the near future. Look at their bond with BA, and now IB. AA and Oneworld work well togeather, and I don't see it changing any time soon.

[Edited 2010-01-21 13:08:59 by heathrow]

User currently offlineSeatback From United States of America, joined Mar 2002, 738 posts, RR: 0
Reply 2, posted (4 years 2 months 3 weeks 4 days 12 hours ago) and read 7623 times:

Interesting question. There's some major bad blood brewing between DL and AA so I'm not sure DL would agree to it.

I also don't think oneworld is doomed. They have a strong worldwide network with the exception of NE Asia.


User currently offlineAtlwest1 From United States of America, joined Jan 2009, 1046 posts, RR: 1
Reply 3, posted (4 years 2 months 3 weeks 4 days 12 hours ago) and read 7586 times:

I could never see that happening. AA brings nothing from the North American side to Skyteam that Delta doesn't or cant do on its own, with the exception of South America.


ALL views, opinions expressed are mine ONLY and are NOT representative of those shared by Southwest Airlines Co. or Airt
User currently offlineKL911 From Ireland, joined Jul 2003, 5084 posts, RR: 12
Reply 4, posted (4 years 2 months 3 weeks 4 days 11 hours ago) and read 7439 times:



Quoting Heathrow (Reply 1):
Oneworld is doomed?? Excuse me? I don't see AA leaving Oneworld any time in the near future. Look at their bond with BA, and now IB

It will be if they don't get the AT immunity. Personally I think AA/BA/IB are way to dominant to allow it, just my opinion though.



Next trip : DUB-AUH-CGK-DPS-KUL-AUH-CDG-ORK :-)
User currently offlineRunway23 From US Minor Outlying Islands, joined Jan 2005, 2151 posts, RR: 36
Reply 5, posted (4 years 2 months 3 weeks 4 days 11 hours ago) and read 7329 times:



Quoting Seatback (Reply 2):
I also don't think oneworld is doomed. They have a strong worldwide network with the exception of NE Asia.

I'd say oneworld isn't safe either. If/when oneworld lose JAL it leaves them with Cathay Pacific in Asia. If CX were to jump ship oneworld would have a massive gap in Asia. This adds on to Oneworld's lack of a key airline in central/western Europe.

Oneworld does have the advantage of LAN and Qantas.

Ultimately though, there's not much overlap currently between Skyteam and Oneworld. So who knows, never say never in aviation.

Quoting KL911 (Reply 4):
It will be if they don't get the AT immunity. Personally I think AA/BA/IB are way to dominant to allow it, just my opinion though.

AA/BA/IB are no more dominant than UA/LH or DL/AF in their key markets. AA/BA getting rejected pretty much means all other JVs can be questioned too.


User currently offlineUshermittwoch From Germany, joined Jan 2004, 2963 posts, RR: 16
Reply 6, posted (4 years 2 months 3 weeks 4 days 11 hours ago) and read 7314 times:

I'd much rather see LAN join SkyTeam...
I guess one can dream...  Smile



Where have all the tri-jets gone...
User currently offlineLAXdude1023 From India, joined Sep 2006, 7320 posts, RR: 24
Reply 7, posted (4 years 2 months 3 weeks 4 days 11 hours ago) and read 7315 times:

Not so sure its worth discussing since it wont happen.

Though I would much rather have AA in SkyTeam than OneWorld.



Stewed...Lewd...Crude...Irreverent...Belligerent
User currently offlineOA412 From United States of America, joined Dec 2000, 5225 posts, RR: 25
Reply 8, posted (4 years 2 months 3 weeks 4 days 11 hours ago) and read 7274 times:



Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 7):
Though I would much rather have AA in SkyTeam than OneWorld.

Imagine a hypothetical situation where Oneworld and Skyteam decided to merge as one large alliance. Now that would be one formidable alliance.



Hughes Airwest - Top Banana In The West
User currently offlineLAXdude1023 From India, joined Sep 2006, 7320 posts, RR: 24
Reply 9, posted (4 years 2 months 3 weeks 4 days 11 hours ago) and read 7264 times:



Quoting OA412 (Reply 8):
Imagine a hypothetical situation where Oneworld and Skyteam decided to merge as one large alliance. Now that would be one formidable alliance.

I suppose one can dream. What I really would want from SkyTeam is KE. They fly to DFW and would provide me with an easy transfer in Asia where I could still get AAdvantage miles.

That would be great. But I just cant see it happening.  Sad



Stewed...Lewd...Crude...Irreverent...Belligerent
User currently offlineOA412 From United States of America, joined Dec 2000, 5225 posts, RR: 25
Reply 10, posted (4 years 2 months 3 weeks 4 days 11 hours ago) and read 7236 times:



Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 9):
I suppose one can dream. What I really would want from SkyTeam is KE. They fly to DFW and would provide me with an easy transfer in Asia where I could still get AAdvantage miles.

Yeah probably unlikely although AA may possibly be able to strike a codesharing deal with them.



Hughes Airwest - Top Banana In The West
User currently offlineJfk777 From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 8089 posts, RR: 7
Reply 11, posted (4 years 2 months 3 weeks 4 days 11 hours ago) and read 7236 times:
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Quoting Enilria (Thread starter):
SkyTeam used to have 3 large U.S. carriers in it

2 merged, DL & NW.


User currently offlineLAXdude1023 From India, joined Sep 2006, 7320 posts, RR: 24
Reply 12, posted (4 years 2 months 3 weeks 4 days 11 hours ago) and read 7213 times:



Quoting OA412 (Reply 10):
Yeah probably unlikely although AA may possibly be able to strike a codesharing deal with them.

If JL does fall through AA should try getting a codeshare partner in that part of Asia. Bearing in mind of course that Codeshare partners can be from other alliances.



Stewed...Lewd...Crude...Irreverent...Belligerent
User currently offlineBOACCunard From United States of America, joined Dec 2009, 851 posts, RR: 0
Reply 13, posted (4 years 2 months 3 weeks 4 days 9 hours ago) and read 6946 times:

I really don't see AA and DL being in the same alliance. Or BA and AF.

MX would presumably have to go back to Star too, since I don't see AM and MX in the same alliance.



Getting There is Half the Fun!
User currently offlineEnilria From Canada, joined Feb 2008, 6836 posts, RR: 14
Reply 14, posted (4 years 2 months 3 weeks 4 days 7 hours ago) and read 6753 times:



Quoting Seatback (Reply 2):
I also don't think oneworld is doomed. They have a strong worldwide network with the exception of NE Asia.

There are now SO WEAK versus the other two alliances and not just in Asia. They really have no hub for intra-Europe service (LHR/MAD are geographically poor for that), they have the third best U.S. network by far, they are now cr@p in Asia, and all they really have the slight upper hand in is Latin America.

I predict this alliance dies or becomes so marginalized it doesn't matter. SkyTeam has built this massive alliance along with Star, and AA has been so fixated on LON that they fiddled while Rome burnt.

If JAL goes into a JV with DL, AA should join SkyTeam and let BA/QF/CX find a new home. Lan would probably come with them.

Quoting KL911 (Reply 4):
It will be if they don't get the AT immunity. Personally I think AA/BA/IB are way to dominant to allow it, just my opinion though.

That's the irony. AA/BA/IB would be dominant for transatlantic travel to/from Europe, but junk for intra-Europe. By not letting them have a JV they are now at a serious disadvantage instead of the other way around.

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 7):
Not so sure its worth discussing since it wont happen.

I really wouldn't say that. If DL will let them in, they would be dumb not to do it. I think it would be good for DL. The overlap with AA is minimal.

Quoting Jfk777 (Reply 11):
2 merged, DL & NW.

I'm aware of that but my point is that from a DOJ perspective, it is not much different than UA/CO/US all in Star together and B6 de facto in Star. AA is bigger than CO, but I don't think from a DOJ perspective there are enough grounds to prevent it. There would be carve-outs as I mentioned.


User currently offlineAquariusHKG From Hong Kong, joined Jan 2010, 94 posts, RR: 0
Reply 15, posted (4 years 2 months 3 weeks 4 days 6 hours ago) and read 6565 times:

I'm not sure why there's not much love for Oneworld on airliners.net............

Over the year people always speculate Oneworld carrier leaving for Star & Skyteam, but never the other way around (i'd join the forum very recently, but been reading for many years)

for AA, what would they gain for joining skyteam? A mega carrier competing with them for the same loyal passenger since their FF becomes interchangeable........a carrier with hub in relatively the same region of the country ........I just don't see it

Also people jump so far as speculating CX leaving when JL is due to leave, I just don't see that on the table, CX & AA partnership is doing quite nicely for CX side, with AA providing feed for CX from their gateway

Of course it's quite widely known that CX and QF doesn't have much love for each other, but QF should be beneficial to use CX and KA's China network, as AND OLD: Hong Kong - Kai Tak International (HKG / VHHH) (closed), China - Hong Kong">HKG is perfectly situated for Australia - China traffic

for AA Pacific network, I think they have to seriously start building their own, over the last two decade they tried using JL @ NRT and CP @ YVR, but both airlines failed and eventually joined their rival, I'll say they need some west coast - Japan / Korea / China flying, they can let CX handle anything south of AND OLD: Hong Kong - Kai Tak International (HKG / VHHH) (closed), China - Hong Kong">HKG


For Oneworld Europe hub, LHR is ideally situated for US - Europe traffic, and HEL (if done correctly) is a good Asia - Europe hub. Middle of Europe is hard as most of the airline based there is Lufthansa owned (LH, LX, OS etc), maybe they can build up BUD for that (Malev's in Oneworld if anyone still remembers)

Middle East SHOULD be a strong point for Oneworld with RJ, that's one of the few airlines that can serve Arab countries AND TLV at the same time

With S7 Joining, Russia is covered, although not as nicely as Aeroflot in Skyteam

All Oneworld need is an Indian partner (Jet?) and a African partner then they're all set, Oneworld already have some African flight via Comair


User currently offlineEnilria From Canada, joined Feb 2008, 6836 posts, RR: 14
Reply 16, posted (4 years 2 months 3 weeks 4 days 5 hours ago) and read 6333 times:



Quoting AquariusHKG (Reply 15):
I'm not sure why there's not much love for Oneworld on airliners.net............

You made some good points, but they are by far the weakest for the domestic U.S. and they have big holes in the network there. Couple that with intra-Europe and now Japan. They are a distant third with little hope of advancement.


User currently offlineCoronado From United States of America, joined Jun 1999, 1124 posts, RR: 2
Reply 17, posted (4 years 2 months 3 weeks 4 days 4 hours ago) and read 6289 times:
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Quoting Seatback (Reply 2):
Interesting question. There's some major bad blood brewing between DL and AA so I'm not sure DL would agree to it.

Interesting! If you look back at the ''loco' fights between NWA and AA over the years, if what you are saying transpires, it seems to suggest that there is a lot more NWA management power or at least influence at the new DL than some would accept. The NWA AA bad blood goes back a long time!



The Original Coronado: First CV jet flights RG CV 990 July 1965; DL CV 880 July 1965; Spantax CV990 Feb 1973
User currently offlineOP3000 From United States of America, joined Jun 2009, 1678 posts, RR: 2
Reply 18, posted (4 years 2 months 3 weeks 4 days 4 hours ago) and read 6257 times:



Quoting AquariusHKG (Reply 15):

Over the year people always speculate Oneworld carrier leaving for Star & Skyteam, but never the other way around (i'd join the forum very recently, but been reading for many years)

Oneworld has a couple of things not going for it right now.

The first is that its two largest airlines are very weak financially, and that limits their growth potential generally as well as the capacity to link up well with other partners in the alliance.

The second "problem" for the oneworld is that most of the large partners (BA, AA, CX, QF and until now JL) each have dominant international hubs at some of the most important cities in the world (LHR, HKG, SYD, JFK, LAX, NRT), so they generally live off of their large customer bases in those hubs and thus prefer not to siphon off too substantial a share of traffic onto partners flying there. That leads to oneworld having weaker relationships amongst its major carriers than other alliances.

Add to that the fact that when they have wanted to work together closer on routes between their hubs (AA-BA to/from LHR), they have been denied by regulators (and will probably continue to be on JFK-LHR, LAX-LHR), because of the same reason that both airlines together would supposedly control too much traffic.


User currently offlineMAH4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 32173 posts, RR: 72
Reply 19, posted (4 years 2 months 3 weeks 4 days 4 hours ago) and read 6224 times:

Quoting OP3000 (Reply 18):
Add to that the fact that when they have wanted to work together closer on routes between their hubs (AA-BA to/from LHR), they have been denied by regulators (and will probably continue to be on JFK-LHR, LAX-LHR),

AA/BA will most likely be able to share on LAX-LHR and JFK-LHR. If not immediately (which is very likely), it will be phased in over time, as other alliances had phase-ins.

I do agree, though, the problem is that the carriers have such strong hubs and don't want to siphon traffic, which is solved when carriers reach ATI, which will happen by the fall with the trans-Atlantic partners, and will hopefully happen with AA/JL.

Although the QF/BA and QF/AA relationships are insanely strong.

[Edited 2010-01-21 21:10:27]


a.
User currently offlineOP3000 From United States of America, joined Jun 2009, 1678 posts, RR: 2
Reply 20, posted (4 years 2 months 3 weeks 4 days 2 hours ago) and read 6068 times:



Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 19):
AA/BA will most likely be able to share on LAX-LHR and JFK-LHR. If not immediately (which is very likely), it will be phased in over time, as other alliances had phase-ins.

I agree, it will be a carve out initially.

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 19):
Although the QF/BA and QF/AA relationships are insanely strong.

Going on the same earlier point, QF/AA is probably stronger than others because AA doesn't do LAX-SYD, and QF/BA because LHR-SYD cannot be flown non-stop.


User currently offlineSATexan From United States of America, joined Jul 2009, 210 posts, RR: 0
Reply 21, posted (4 years 2 months 3 weeks 4 days 1 hour ago) and read 6043 times:



Quoting Enilria (Reply 16):
You made some good points, but they are by far the weakest for the domestic U.S. and they have big holes in the network there.

Did you mean big holes in the US domestic network? I would love to hear what those big holes are..


User currently offlineOP3000 From United States of America, joined Jun 2009, 1678 posts, RR: 2
Reply 22, posted (4 years 2 months 3 weeks 4 days ago) and read 5956 times:



Quoting SATexan (Reply 21):


Quoting Enilria (Reply 16):
You made some good points, but they are by far the weakest for the domestic U.S. and they have big holes in the network there.

Did you mean big holes in the US domestic network? I would love to hear what those big holes are..

I would not say "by far". But they do have a hole in the Southeast ex. MIA, and to a lesser degree a sparse presence in the West ex. LAX.


User currently offlineMAH4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 32173 posts, RR: 72
Reply 23, posted (4 years 2 months 3 weeks 3 days 21 hours ago) and read 5818 times:



Quoting OP3000 (Reply 20):
and QF/BA because LHR-SYD cannot be flown non-stop.

QF/BA have ATI.



a.
User currently offlineAquariusHKG From Hong Kong, joined Jan 2010, 94 posts, RR: 0
Reply 24, posted (4 years 2 months 3 weeks 3 days 17 hours ago) and read 5154 times:



Quoting OP3000 (Reply 22):
I would not say "by far". But they do have a hole in the Southeast ex. MIA, and to a lesser degree a sparse presence in the West ex. LAX.

Don't quite get what you mean by MIA...........

For LAX, you can consider the presence of AS there for filling the hole, as AS partners with QF, LA, AA, BA, CX (and soon to be Oneworld FJ) alongside Skyteam airlines


25 MasseyBrown : In kilometers maybe, but not if you're measuring in miles.
26 AA1818 : Really? When? AA1818
27 Seatback : South America would be huge Sky Team. Additionally, American is very strong in major markets in the US (CHI, BOS, NYC, MIA, SJU, DFW, LAX) bigger tha
28 1337Delta764 : Stronger than DL in NYC? I am not so sure about that. I think DL is larger than AA at JFK, and soon DL will also have a hub in LGA.
29 Flybyguy : I believe AA didn't expand in asia because it's pilot's union was adamantly against the long flight hours. If that panned out to be true, then this i
30 Luckyone : The biggest one being that three do not share nearly as well as two. When you have three large alliances like we do it's incredibly likely that two w
31 AquariusHKG : I guess you really miss the RDU hub............. but there isn't really that many place suitable for AA to put a hub in, ATL is DL's, IAD is UA, and
32 DLPMMM : AA would have to establish their own hub (such as RDU or similar), or better yet, absorb US Airways. That would be a very nice route fit, but terribl
33 Luckyone : I personally do not as I never used it, Delta has always worked better for me with more options and better service from ATL. My point wasn't mean to
34 Rangercarp : It might make sense if US goes chapter 7 and AA can Cherry pick the parts it wants, leaving the rest for the other scavengers. I can't see AA having
35 777ER : I doubt AA will leave OneWorld due to the BA/IB relationship, but also because of the QF relationship OneTeam?
36 Luckyone : SkyWorld filler filler filler filler filler filler filler filler filler filler
37 Peanuts : OW is not doomed. There is room for 3 super alliances on this planet. OW will benefit from a potential shake out in StarAlliance. If (IF) EK was to d
38 United1 : What potential shakeout would that be?
39 Mutu : No, TATL ex LHR only. There is no domination mainland euopre to USA with Oneworld The logical answer is, if AA joined Skyteam and Oneworld collapsed
40 Incitatus : If there is no ATI for AA, BA and IB, and DL/JL sails through regulators, it is fair to say that regulators do not see a value in having three large a
41 DLPMMM : I think there is more than enough room in the market for 3 major alliances. OW has just lost their way as AA and BA have been very distracted (TATL A
42 ATLFlyer323 : Unless of course they merged, but that is a whole other thread. -Brandon
43 OA412 : I think that is a huge part of the problem. AA/BA have been very focused (if not overly so) on TATL ATI to, perhaps, the detriment of the alliance. E
44 ThePinnacleKid : It honestly amazes me people would even think/speculate that AA would somehow abandon oneworld... They along with British Airways, Cathay Pacific, and
45 Peanuts : Depends on how you look at it. KLM and NW were the true pioneers of an alliance. When they were doing what they were doing in the early 90's, most pe
46 OP3000 : MIA is a weak hub for connecting within the Southeast. And they own about 30% of CX, while CX owns 18% of CA.
47 Beeweel15 : What is Star Alliance and One World merged creating World Star / Star One Alliance. Now that would be something.
48 BOACCunard : KL and NW had nothing to do with SkyTeam when it was founded. The KL/NW alliance was folded into SkyTeam later, after AF and KL merged. Before SkyTea
49 Peanuts : Not what I said. And before that, NW and KLM had started cooperating already in 1989, way before CO. I don't think you got my drift... SkyTeam may ha
50 OP3000 : I think Peanuts meant that the bilateral partnership between KL and NW back in 1992 was the first airline alliance, and that the multi-airline allian
51 ThePinnacleKid : I can assure you I'm familiar with all of the alliances... more familiar than most on here. As a current active airline pilot in US.. and having been
52 United1 : This nonsense was started on the other thread as well....all of that is simply baseless and akin to me starting a rumor that AF is leaving for Onewor
53 OP3000 : As I mentioned earlier CA will eventually be completely tied up with CX (with CA buying a controlling stake in CX from Swire), so one of them will sh
54 Peanuts : well, considering most people on here don't have all the facts and are merely speculating, I thought I'd join the fun. However, I must say, your reas
55 CrAAzy : Agreed With JL joining Skyteam, and ANA in the Star Alliance - how could a combined CX/CA resist being the dominant/only asian airline in OneWorld us
56 American 767 : And Kenya Air, although they never officially became a member of Sky Team. When KL and NW became partners, KL was already associated with Kenya Air.
57 United1 : Thats not how SA works though they hate competition and dropped ties with DL, their alliance partner, when DL started flights. BA and SA compete pret
58 Luckyone : That ended well before Delta began South Africa operations when SAA chose its alliance.
59 United1 : Sorry I should have said announced they were entering SA as the two were connected.
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