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US-South America-US Pax Traffic Numbers - JUL/09  
User currently offlineDanVS From Brazil, joined Jul 2009, 254 posts, RR: 0
Posted (4 years 10 months 4 days 1 hour ago) and read 3145 times:

Here are the load factors for pax flights to and from South America on July 2009 (excluding Brazil).
Source: BTS.gov

Top 20 Load factors
AV MIA MDE 99,2%
AV MIA BOG 99,1%
AV MIA BAQ 98,6%
AV MIA CLO 97,8%
DL JFK BOG 97,6%
AV FLL BOG 96,8%
AV JFK MDE 96,7%
NK FLL BOG 96,1%
CO EWR LIM 96,0%
DL ATL BOG 95,9%
AV LAX BOG 95,8%
AA LIM MIA 95,7%
AV JFK BOG 95,7%
AA MIA BOG 95,5%
CO EWR BOG 95,4%
AV IAD BOG 95,4%
AA MIA GYE 94,8%
CO LIM EWR 94,8%
AA MIA LPB 94,7%
CO LIM IAH 94,6%

Argentina

DL EZE ATL 90,6%
AR EZE MIA 89,5%
AA EZE JFK 89,4%
AA EZE MIA 85,6%
UA EZE IAD 85,4%
4M EZE MIA 85,2%
CO EZE IAH 84,0%
DL ATL EZE 82,7%
AA EZE DFW 81,4%
AA JFK EZE 76,7%
AA MIA EZE 76,3%
UA IAD EZE 72,6%
AR MIA EZE 70,8%
CO IAH EZE 70,3%
4M MIA EZE 69,8%
AA DFW EZE 64,9%

Bolivia

AA MIA LPB 94,7%
5L MIA VVI 93,3%
AA MIA VVI 88,6%
AA VVI MIA 73,3%
5L VVI MIA 71,8%

Chile

LA SCL JFK 88,2%
LA JFK SCL 83,6%
LA SCL MIA 79,1%
LA MIA SCL 75,7%
AA SCL MIA 75,4%
AA MIA SCL 72,0%

Colombia

AV MIA MDE 99,2%
AV MIA BOG 99,1%
AV MIA BAQ 98,6%
AV MIA CLO 97,8%
DL JFK BOG 97,6%
AV FLL BOG 96,8%
AV JFK MDE 96,7%
NK FLL BOG 96,1%
DL ATL BOG 95,9%
AV LAX BOG 95,8%
AV JFK BOG 95,7%
AA MIA BOG 95,5%
AV IAD BOG 95,4%
CO EWR BOG 95,4%
AV MIA CTG 94,4%
CO IAH BOG 94,3%
B6 MCO BOG 93,5%
AA MIA MDE 93,4%
AA MIA CLO 93,3%
NK FLL MDE 93,3%
CO BOG IAH 92,5%
AV CLO MIA 91,7%
AA BOG MIA 90,2%
LA MIA BOG 90,0%
AA CLO MIA 89,9%
CO BOG EWR 89,7%
NK FLL CTG 88,7%
AV BAQ MIA 88,5%
B6 BOG MCO 87,1%
DL BOG ATL 86,3%
AV CTG MIA 84,8%
NK BOG FLL 84,7%
LA BOG MIA 82,1%
AV MDE JFK 79,4%
AV MDE MIA 79,3%
AV BOG FLL 77,6%
NK CTG FLL 77,2%
DL BOG JFK 72,6%
AA MDE MIA 70,5%
AV BOG LAX 66,1%
AV BOG MIA 62,3%
NK MDE FLL 59,5%
AV BOG JFK 54,6%
AV BOG IAD 48,0%

Ecuador

AA MIA GYE 94,8%
DL ATL UIO 93,2%
XL JFK GYE 92,5%
AA MIA UIO 92,1%
XL UIO MIA 91,1%
AA UIO MIA 90,8%
CO IAH UIO 90,1%
DL GYE ATL 87,5%
CO UIO IAH 82,0%
XL GYE JFK 76,0%
XL MIA UIO 75,9%

Guyana

DL JFK GEO 92,5%
DL GEO JFK 82,6%

Peru

CO EWR LIM 96,0%
AA LIM MIA 95,7%
CO LIM EWR 94,8%
CO LIM IAH 94,6%
CO IAH LIM 94,4%
DL LIM ATL 94,3%
DL ATL LIM 93,8%
AA MIA LIM 93,3%
LA LIM LAX 91,8%
NK LIM FLL 87,6%
LA JFK LIM 87,4%
LP LIM MIA 86,7%
LP LIM LAX 86,6%
LA LAX LIM 84,8%
LA LIM JFK 84,5%
NK FLL LIM 81,9%
LP MIA LIM 81,1%
LP LAX LIM 72,1%

Uruguay

AA MVD MIA 86,2%
AA MIA MVD 85,0%

Venezuela

AA CCS JFK 93,9%
DL CCS ATL 92,6%
AA CCS MIA 90,7%
CO CCS MIA 89,7%
DL ATL CCS 81,0%
AA JFK CCS 79,7%
CO CCS IAH 78,2%
LA MIA CCS 75,8%
AA MIA CCS 75,0%
AA DFW SCL 73,8%
CO IAH CCS 62,5%
S3 MIA CCS 47,0%

Top 5 per airline

American Airlines
AA LIM MIA 95,7%
AA MIA BOG 95,5%
AA MIA GYE 94,8%
AA MIA LPB 94,7%
AA CCS JFK 93,9%


Avianca
AV MIA MDE 99,2%
AV MIA BOG 99,1%
AV MIA BAQ 98,6%
AV MIA CLO 97,8%
AV FLL BOG 96,8%

Continental
CO EWR LIM 96,0%
CO EWR BOG 95,4%
CO LIM EWR 94,8%
CO LIM IAH 94,6%
CO IAH LIM 94,4%

Delta
DL JFK BOG 97,6%
DL ATL BOG 95,9%
DL LIM ATL 94,3%
DL ATL LIM 93,8%
DL ATL UIO 93,2%

LAN (excluding Lan Peru, Lan Ecuador and Lan Argentina)
LA LIM LAX 91,8%
LA MIA BOG 90,0%
LA SCL JFK 88,2%
LA JFK LIM 87,4%
LA LAX LIM 84,8%

Rgs,

26 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineLipeGIG From Brazil, joined May 2005, 11456 posts, RR: 58
Reply 1, posted (4 years 10 months 4 days 1 hour ago) and read 3120 times:
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DanVS, thanks for the time you spent to bring us such information !

Quoting DanVS (Thread starter):
DL BOG JFK 72,6%
AA MDE MIA 70,5%
AV BOG LAX 66,1%
AV BOG MIA 62,3%
NK MDE FLL 59,5%
AV BOG JFK 54,6%
AV BOG IAD 48,0%

I wouldn't expect DL to perform better than AV on BOG-JFK. Even being a summer month, DL got good numbers, but AV numbers for JFK and IAD are a little disapointing. I know IAD is such a new route.
My tough come from the fact that in general Colombia-US flights show very good numbers and even JFK-BOG is a very good route for both DL and AV with loads higher than 90% !
Is such a big difference 95.7% on one direction and 54.6% on the other, unless there's a huge movement of people going back to Colombia (one-way).

Quoting DanVS (Thread starter):
CO IAH CCS 62,5%
S3 MIA CCS 47,0%

Another surprise for me that an oil-to-oil route like IAH-CCS on summer only got 62% !
Seems that CCS is heavily tied to the east coast.

Quoting DanVS (Thread starter):
CO IAH EZE 70,3%
4M MIA EZE 69,8%
AA DFW EZE 64,9%

4M numbers sounds too little compared to what AA and even AR got. I would expect that LA group, with a better product, got a better result. This might explain why they are not trying new routes like EZE-MAD ? CO to IAH and AA to DFW also do not show, looking only to the load, a good performance.



New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
User currently offlineSumma767 From United Kingdom, joined Mar 2004, 2566 posts, RR: 6
Reply 2, posted (4 years 10 months 4 days ago) and read 3075 times:

DanVS,
Thank you indeed for such interesting information:

On the Colombian figures it's striking how different the LFs are Northbound vs Southbound for July on may routes. Notably IAD-BOG-IAD and JFK-BOG-JFK. Clearly many people take advantage of the school holidays in the US to travel down to visit their families.

Very poor LF for BOG-IAD, even though it's a puny A319 operating that route, and only an average of 57 passengers. It was already a one year old route by July 2009.
We can only hope that with the improving economy, especially that of the US and Peru (very important feed for AV) this route will see better performance. It cannot rely on a push from the Colombian side, as its economy does not promise much for the next couple of years, at least.

Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 1):
I wouldn't expect DL to perform better than AV on BOG-JFK. Even being a summer month, DL got good numbers, but AV numbers for JFK and IAD are a little disapointing. I know IAD is such a new route.
My tough come from the fact that in general Colombia-US flights show very good numbers and even JFK-BOG is a very good route for both DL and AV with loads higher than 90% !

Well, these numbers might deceive, as it was after the Summer that DL actually applied to the DOT to move its frequencies from JFK-BOG for a second daily ATL-BOG instead - only to end up with egg on it face-.
If I recall correctly, DL did not even have daily service, it was like 4 o 5 times a week.
AV, on the other hand, had 12 weekly frequencies, of which 7 were on the A330.

We shall have to see how DL performs this year. It's still not daily service, so they cannot be doing great. I would not bet on it prevailing.


User currently offlineLipeGIG From Brazil, joined May 2005, 11456 posts, RR: 58
Reply 3, posted (4 years 10 months 3 days 23 hours ago) and read 2992 times:
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Quoting Summa767 (Reply 2):
Very poor LF for BOG-IAD, even though it's a puny A319 operating that route, and only an average of 57 passengers. It was already a one year old route by July 2009

Agree. As they can't downgrade the flight to a smaller plane, the last chance is to reduce frequencies.

Quoting Summa767 (Reply 2):
If I recall correctly, DL did not even have daily service, it was like 4 o 5 times a week.
AV, on the other hand, had 12 weekly frequencies, of which 7 were on the A330.

Yes, but with less frequencies DL is getting a good load. May be the case of AV to reduce frequencies, even being the fact JFK-BOG performs very well.



New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
User currently offlineHardiwv From Brazil, joined Oct 2004, 8780 posts, RR: 49
Reply 4, posted (4 years 10 months 3 days 23 hours ago) and read 2980 times:

Thanks again for the interesting information. However, it is important to underscore that loads are only part of the story being yields the real drivers of profit and revenue. This explains why AA MIA-EZE loads are not among the highest but certainly the most profitable route among them all!

Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 1):
Another surprise for me that an oil-to-oil route like IAH-CCS on summer only got 62% !
Seems that CCS is heavily tied to the east coast.

As I said, loads are only part of the story. I am sure CO must have very good yields for the route which more than compensate for lower loads.

Rgs,


User currently offlineLipeGIG From Brazil, joined May 2005, 11456 posts, RR: 58
Reply 5, posted (4 years 10 months 3 days 22 hours ago) and read 2929 times:
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Quoting Hardiwv (Reply 4):
As I said, loads are only part of the story. I am sure CO must have very good yields for the route which more than compensate for lower loads.

Even with nice yields, it's a waste of resource to have a flight on the busiest month to depart with 62%. 62% could generate good yields ? Yes. 71% could generate better yields ? It could. And how about 74% , 79%, 81% ?
For sure IAH routes got the advantage of oil market, but Venezuela isn't the best example for foreign capital, and just to compare, the 738 on fare class tool, show huge availability on next days for both Y and C, while other markets in South America with fares as higher as 2.5x CCS, got almost no seat availability on premium or economy classes.
I don't know the history of the route, but there's space for more, for sure.



New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
User currently offlineHardiwv From Brazil, joined Oct 2004, 8780 posts, RR: 49
Reply 6, posted (4 years 10 months 3 days 21 hours ago) and read 2916 times:



Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 5):
Even with nice yields, it's a waste of resource to have a flight on the busiest month to depart with 62%. 62% could generate good yields ? Yes. 71% could generate better yields ? It could. And how about 74% , 79%, 81% ?

This could be a market such as those in some Gulf or segmented markets. Similar to some KL markets eg KRT, KWI or AUH which usually have medium/low loads but high yields and cargo still making the operation very profitable. In such cases you rarely find discounted Y seat or award ticket availability pushing yields higher and compensating loads. As you know, you may fly a route with 100% loads full with discounted Y and upgrades on C...surely loads are only part of the final equation! CCS-MCO could make 100% loads but CCS-IAH with 50% loads could certainly generate far higher revenues.

Rgs,


User currently offlineYellowtail From United States of America, joined Jun 2005, 6294 posts, RR: 2
Reply 7, posted (4 years 10 months 3 days 21 hours ago) and read 2883 times:

LIM is definitely the crown jewel in LF terms in S. America. Cargo is not too shabby either.

Quoting Hardiwv (Reply 6):
CCS-MCO could make 100% loads but CCS-IAH with 50% loads could certainly generate far higher revenues.

Remember that IAH-CCS...up front is mostly like all ffull fare paying and no OnePass free upgrades....and FOR SURE...there is nice premium cargo down below.



When in doubt, hold on to your altitude. No-one has ever collided with the sky.
User currently offlineLipeGIG From Brazil, joined May 2005, 11456 posts, RR: 58
Reply 8, posted (4 years 10 months 3 days 21 hours ago) and read 2881 times:
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Quoting Hardiwv (Reply 6):
! CCS-MCO could make 100% loads but CCS-IAH with 50% loads could certainly generate far higher revenues.

Here we can't see that unless we have access to CO sales information



New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
User currently offlineHardiwv From Brazil, joined Oct 2004, 8780 posts, RR: 49
Reply 9, posted (4 years 10 months 3 days 21 hours ago) and read 2873 times:



Quoting Yellowtail (Reply 7):
LIM is definitely the crown jewel in LF terms in S. America. Cargo is not too shabby either.

Dont forget that above numbers exclude Brazil.

Quoting Yellowtail (Reply 7):
Remember that IAH-CCS...up front is mostly like all ffull fare paying and no OnePass free upgrades....and FOR SURE...there is nice premium cargo down below.

I expected so, thanks.

Rgs,


User currently offlineLipeGIG From Brazil, joined May 2005, 11456 posts, RR: 58
Reply 10, posted (4 years 10 months 3 days 21 hours ago) and read 2848 times:
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Quoting Yellowtail (Reply 7):
LIM is definitely the crown jewel in LF terms in S. America. Cargo is not too shabby either.

LIM have a big advantage over Brazil: airlines need one plane only !

Quoting Hardiwv (Reply 9):
Dont forget that above numbers exclude Brazil.

Brazil have only 5 routes over 90% LF in July/09.



New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
User currently offlineHardiwv From Brazil, joined Oct 2004, 8780 posts, RR: 49
Reply 11, posted (4 years 10 months 3 days 21 hours ago) and read 2840 times:



Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 10):
Brazil have only 5 routes over 90% LF in July/09.

Brazil only has widebody US-Brazil while LIM-US has many narrow body operations, this reflects directly on revenue (see AA offer of F/C seats in GRU for example as compared to LIM). As I said, LF is only part of the equation.

Rgs,


User currently offlineLipeGIG From Brazil, joined May 2005, 11456 posts, RR: 58
Reply 12, posted (4 years 10 months 3 days 21 hours ago) and read 2829 times:
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Quoting Hardiwv (Reply 11):
Brazil only has widebody US-Brazil while LIM-US has many narrow body operations, this reflects directly on revenue (see AA offer of F/C seats in GRU for example as compared to LIM). As I said, LF is only part of the equation.

I can't see your point as AA still lose money as airline, even with F/C seats in GRU while Southwest, for example, makes profits with B737 fleet all years of their life. So i would say that run flights to LIM with them is very smart.
One B738 costs 2 times less than B772, so revenue does not need to be the same.



New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
User currently offlineHardiwv From Brazil, joined Oct 2004, 8780 posts, RR: 49
Reply 13, posted (4 years 10 months 3 days 20 hours ago) and read 2814 times:



Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 12):
can't see your point as AA still lose money as airline, even with F/C seats in GRU while Southwest, for example, makes profits with B737 fleet all years of their life

AA makes money (a lot) in routes such as GRU and EZE and also LIM. What I said is that you cannot compare the revenue AA makes in routes such as MIA-EZE or DFW-GRU (which are among its top worldwide performers). Othwerwise AA could fly the 3-class B777 into LIM. LF of 1-class B737 is very different of LF of 3-class B777.

Rgs,


User currently offlineLipeGIG From Brazil, joined May 2005, 11456 posts, RR: 58
Reply 14, posted (4 years 10 months 3 days 17 hours ago) and read 2741 times:
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Quoting Hardiwv (Reply 13):
AA makes money (a lot) in routes such as GRU and EZE and also LIM. What I said is that you cannot compare the revenue AA makes in routes such as MIA-EZE or DFW-GRU (which are among its top worldwide performers). Othwerwise AA could fly the 3-class B777 into LIM. LF of 1-class B737 is very different of LF of 3-class B777.

Are you sure about that ? So from where come the money AA loses ?



New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
User currently offlineVZLA787 From United States of America, joined Jul 2009, 99 posts, RR: 0
Reply 15, posted (4 years 10 months 3 days 17 hours ago) and read 2726 times:

[quote=DanVS,reply=0]Venezuela


CO CCS MIA 89,7%


How does this happen? Can I assume it's a typo? AA has 4 direct daily flights CCS-MIA, S3 has 2 or 3, how does CO fit here (through IAH)?


User currently offlineLipeGIG From Brazil, joined May 2005, 11456 posts, RR: 58
Reply 16, posted (4 years 10 months 3 days 17 hours ago) and read 2721 times:
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Quoting VZLA787 (Reply 15):
How does this happen? Can I assume it's a typo? AA has 4 direct daily flights CCS-MIA, S3 has 2 or 3, how does CO fit here (through IAH)?

The op bring just the LF, so it's probably just an alternate flight. This happen quite frequently and DOT reports brings the first airport of arrival, and in case of alternated flight, they show such airport.



New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
User currently offlineDanVS From Brazil, joined Jul 2009, 254 posts, RR: 0
Reply 17, posted (4 years 10 months 3 days 17 hours ago) and read 2709 times:



Quoting VZLA787 (Reply 15):

Sorry!
LA CCS MIA 89,7%


User currently offlineHardiwv From Brazil, joined Oct 2004, 8780 posts, RR: 49
Reply 18, posted (4 years 10 months 3 days 10 hours ago) and read 2612 times:



Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 14):
So from where come the money AA loses ?

US domestic where it faces tough competition from airlines such as the one you mentioned (Southwest).

Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 14):
Are you sure about that ?

This is widely known and mentioned several times here on a.net.

Rgs,


User currently offlineLipeGIG From Brazil, joined May 2005, 11456 posts, RR: 58
Reply 19, posted (4 years 10 months 3 days 2 hours ago) and read 2524 times:
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Quoting Hardiwv (Reply 18):
US domestic where it faces tough competition from airlines such as the one you mentioned (Southwest).

Ok, so from where it comes their feed to the international flights ? It's 100% O&D MIA, DFW, JFK ? I don't think so.
It's very usual on A.net to read that route A or B makes profit, but be in mind, at least a good % of the passengers come from all over the United States. You can have a F passenger on a domestic flight, and the domestic route can account for a good portion of a corporate agreement deep discount ticket. If AA loses money on domestic , how they make profit on long haul as they probably do a managerial allocation of revenue ? Also, many routes charge a very nice premium where airlines got exclusivity.



New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
User currently offlineHardiwv From Brazil, joined Oct 2004, 8780 posts, RR: 49
Reply 20, posted (4 years 10 months 3 days 2 hours ago) and read 2501 times:



Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 19):
Ok, so from where it comes their feed to the international flights ? It's 100% O&D MIA, DFW, JFK ? I don't think so.
It's very usual on A.net to read that route A or B makes profit, but be in mind, at least a good % of the passengers come from all over the United States. You can have a F passenger on a domestic flight, and the domestic route can account for a good portion of a corporate agreement deep discount ticket. If AA loses money on domestic , how they make profit on long haul as they probably do a managerial allocation of revenue ? Also, many routes charge a very nice premium where airlines got exclusivity.

Feed for international is different from domestic-domestic passenger which forms the bulk of Southwest loads. Or would you expect AA to start flying MIA-GRU in single-class aircraft? A basic analysis could show that the B772 has far greater revenue potential than flying a B737 single-class or this would not be the norm in legacy international airlines. The initial point of the discussion was that you should not simply look at LF as a principle for profitability and the case of CO IAH-CCS is a possible example. Try to compare Southwest long haul network with AA and you will have the answer to your questions.

Rgs,


User currently offlineRCS763AV From Colombia, joined Jun 2004, 4395 posts, RR: 12
Reply 21, posted (4 years 9 months 4 weeks 1 day 18 hours ago) and read 2325 times:

Nice job on the data DanVS, thank you....

There is a fact for the low-load factors ex-Colombia, and that is that most of the middle and upper-class, northern calendar based schools start holidays in mid june (this is a big bulk of seasonal traffic) and the southern calendar based schools only leave for holidays in July, where a lot of the VFR traffic comes from. On the contrary, colombians living in the US come to visit their families during this time of the year as they are already on summer vacations.

It still amazes me how diversified the Colombia-United States market is. We have 7 cities with direct service, the most comprehensive network of US destinations and 8 airlines serving our market. Even though this has been good for the customers, yields have obviously eroded for the airlines. It's not hte goldmine it used to be in the 80s, 90s and early 00s.

The load factors of flights to Peru are amazing, it shows how well the economy is doing in the country. Time for diversification maybe?

It also seems curious that load factors for Venezuela-MIA flights aren't that high, regarding how restrained capacity is in that market. The dwindling economy and the conflicts with the US are taking their toll. Also, why weren't flights from Maracaibo and Valencia included in the figures?


User currently offlineBobnwa From United States of America, joined Dec 2000, 6515 posts, RR: 9
Reply 22, posted (4 years 9 months 4 weeks 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 2244 times:



Quoting Hardiwv (Reply 4):
being yields the real drivers of profit and revenue. This explains why AA MIA-EZE loads are not among the highest but certainly the most profitable route among them all!



Quoting Hardiwv (Reply 13):
AA makes money (a lot) in routes such as GRU and EZE and also LIM




Please give your source for these statements. Do you have access to AA's profit and loss by route?


User currently offlineSESGDL From United States of America, joined Jan 2001, 3489 posts, RR: 10
Reply 23, posted (4 years 9 months 4 weeks 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 2235 times:



Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 14):
Are you sure about that ? So from where come the money AA loses ?

Exactly. Here on airliners.net we get a lot of information from a few key people, whether affiliated with the organization or not, and these people are thought of as reliable sources, but it raises a constant red flag for me. I've yet to hear anything about AA announcing the profitability of specific routes, and listing the routes that are profitable by someone in "the know" is illegal and proprietary. Everything else is speculation. I don't doubt that AA makes money off its many of its South American routes, but there's a good chance that they're maintaining their dominance on these routes despite a loss, similar to what many airlines do to maintain market share. AA lost a boatload of money this year and by that it's easy to assume that many, perhaps most, of AA's routes were, in fact, unprofitable.

Jeremy


User currently offlineFlyPNS1 From United States of America, joined Nov 1999, 6694 posts, RR: 24
Reply 24, posted (4 years 9 months 4 weeks 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 2199 times:



Quoting Summa767 (Reply 2):
Very poor LF for BOG-IAD, even though it's a puny A319 operating that route, and only an average of 57 passengers. It was already a one year old route by July 2009.



Quoting DanVS (Thread starter):
AV IAD BOG 95,4%



Quoting DanVS (Thread starter):
AV BOG IAD 48,0%

Something doesn't seem quite right here. How do you get such a high LF in one direction, but not in the return. Small differences of 5-10 points is understandable, but this is weird?


25 Bobnwa : Where do the DL figures for ATL-SCL fit in?
26 LAXdude1023 : The pilot pensions and their high operating costs for starters. MIA-EZE and DFW-GRU are excellent preformers. However, AA should consider making DFW-
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