Hardiwv From Brazil, joined Oct 2004, 8780 posts, RR: 52 Reply 1, posted (3 years 4 months 8 hours ago) and read 17386 times:
This leaves KE alone and in my opinion DL should instead put its code on the KE-operated flight. DL perhaps thought KE would pull out but it backfired.
Quoting MAH4546 (Thread starter): Two of the three frequencies are currently locked into LAX-GRU, so Delta can use them elsewhere by applying with DOT.
Will DOT allow DL to play around with these frequencies? Perhaps they will go back to JFK-GRU.
LipeGIG From Brazil, joined May 2005, 11201 posts, RR: 61 Reply 2, posted (3 years 4 months 8 hours ago) and read 17380 times:
AIRLINERS.NET CREW FORUM MODERATOR
Thats true Mark, DL applied to Brazilian ANAC to suspend service effective Feb 28.
It matches general expectation that this route wouldn't last so long. KE still offer the service but i wonder how they are doing with the lowest loads on US-Brazil-US market.
As a side note, Congrats for 9 years as A.Net member !
New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
Hardiwv From Brazil, joined Oct 2004, 8780 posts, RR: 52 Reply 3, posted (3 years 4 months 8 hours ago) and read 17316 times:
Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 2): KE still offer the service but i wonder how they are doing with the lowest loads on US-Brazil-US market.
The lowest loads belong to JJ MAO-MIA. KE loads fluctuate between 50% and 90%, when service overlaps with DL (eg July09) loads are lower. Now with DL out of the route KE will have better market position. Also dont forget that different that US carriers KE has quick turnaround in GRU which brings cost lower and improves performance.
MAH4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 31118 posts, RR: 73 Reply 4, posted (3 years 4 months 7 hours ago) and read 17269 times:
Quoting Hardiwv (Reply 1): This leaves KE alone and in my opinion DL should instead put its code on the KE-operated flight. DL perhaps thought KE would pull out but it backfired.
I think there are restrictions on U.S.-Brazil codesharing that do not allow this right now.
Quoting Hardiwv (Reply 1):
Will DOT allow DL to play around with these frequencies?
Yes, but another airline is allowed to object to the transfer. This is what happened with Delta's Bogota frequencies.
Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 2):
As a side note, Congrats for 9 years as A.Net member !
LipeGIG From Brazil, joined May 2005, 11201 posts, RR: 61 Reply 5, posted (3 years 4 months 7 hours ago) and read 17208 times:
AIRLINERS.NET CREW FORUM MODERATOR
Quoting Hardiwv (Reply 3): The lowest loads belong to JJ MAO-MIA. KE loads fluctuate between 50% and 90%, when service overlaps with DL (eg July09) loads are lower. Now with DL out of the route KE will have better market position
Not now Hardi, JJ MAO-MIA is performing very well.
KE has been alone in the market before DL and never got high loads except for busy months. For a 3x weekly service between two large markets like Sao Paulo and Los Angeles, it's disappointing.
New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
Dtw9 From United States of America, joined Sep 2003, 1048 posts, RR: 2 Reply 6, posted (3 years 4 months 7 hours ago) and read 17213 times:
Quoting MAH4546 (Thread starter): Two of the three frequencies are currently locked into LAX-GRU, so Delta can use them elsewhere by applying with DOT.
Hardiwv From Brazil, joined Oct 2004, 8780 posts, RR: 52 Reply 10, posted (3 years 4 months 7 hours ago) and read 17109 times:
Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 5): KE has been alone in the market before DL and never got high loads except for busy months. For a 3x weekly service between two large markets like Sao Paulo and Los Angeles, it's disappointing.
There are months which KE shows high loads. KE fought for the market with DL and won. As I said, KE has quick turnaround in GRU and is the only airline with regular year-around daylight flight US-GRU (except for JJ GRU-MCO). This quick turnaround certainly improves KE results (how much 14h of grounded plane could cost airlines?).
Thanks. DTW is a super hub of DL/NW (4 daily DTW-AMS flights, for example). It would capture a lot of connections and it has a good chance they use NW-A330 configured aircraft to run DTW-GRU. Very interetsing development.
MAH4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 31118 posts, RR: 73 Reply 14, posted (3 years 4 months 7 hours ago) and read 16965 times:
Quoting Dtw9 (Reply 6): Quoting MAH4546 (Thread starter):
Two of the three frequencies are currently locked into LAX-GRU, so Delta can use them elsewhere by applying with DOT.
They have. For DTW-GRU
They have not applied, but an application for DTW-GRU would not surprise me - good route, DL can do well.
Quoting LAXintl (Reply 12): Last I heard the flight was to be back in May or June.
It was supposed to, but the May resumption was removed over the weekend.
Cubsrule From United States of America, joined May 2004, 21244 posts, RR: 19 Reply 15, posted (3 years 4 months 7 hours ago) and read 16927 times:
Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 14): They have not applied, but an application for DTW-GRU would not surprise me - good route, DL can do well.
I agree with your assessment (although I don't know about the sub-daily schedule when its closest competitor - UA ORD-GRU - is daily). To me, the more interesting question is whether they'll succeed in moving the frequencies.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
DeltaL1011man From United States of America, joined Sep 2005, 8590 posts, RR: 8 Reply 17, posted (3 years 4 months 7 hours ago) and read 16876 times:
Quoting Hardiwv (Reply 1): Will DOT allow DL to play around with these frequencies? Perhaps they will go back to JFK-GRU.
I don't believe Delta is using all all of the its JFK-GRU rights now, unlikely they move one freq back.
Quoting Hardiwv (Reply 1): This leaves KE alone and in my opinion DL should instead put its code on the KE-operated flight. DL perhaps thought KE would pull out but it backfired.
I figured it was dead when Ke went daily.
Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 14): They have not applied, but an application for DTW-GRU would not surprise me - good route, DL can do well.
IMO we may see them move some freqs from JFK-GRU over to DTW if the DOT will let them.
"Oh look at the sUGAr falling out of the sky! Look at the sUGAr falling out of the sky!" LM 1922-2011 Go Dawgs! G.A.T.A.
Hardiwv From Brazil, joined Oct 2004, 8780 posts, RR: 52 Reply 19, posted (3 years 4 months 7 hours ago) and read 16773 times:
Quoting DeltaL1011man (Reply 17): IMO we may see them move some freqs from JFK-GRU over to DTW if the DOT will let them.
I agree that DTW-GRU has good chance of working well and more frequencies JFK-GRU could be shifted to DTW-GRU provided DOT approves. DTW-GRU have good O&D and DTW is a hub which will connect GRU with NW domestic/international network.
But DTW will have many of the same issues ORD has, its poorly positioned to serve South American being so far north.
But at the end of the day, DTW can certainly present greater overall opportunities for DL to develop then LAX ever could for DL even tough the LA-Brazil O&D market is larger.
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
OA412 From United States of America, joined Dec 2000, 4980 posts, RR: 25 Reply 21, posted (3 years 4 months 7 hours ago) and read 16724 times:
Not all that surprising with less than daily service on this route. So if the DTW rumor is true, are they looking at daily frequency? 3 weekly like LAX?
HeeseokKoo From South Korea, joined Jan 2005, 522 posts, RR: 1 Reply 23, posted (3 years 4 months 5 hours ago) and read 16350 times:
Quoting Hardiwv (Reply 10): This quick turnaround certainly improves KE results (how much 14h of grounded plane could cost airlines?).
Daytime GRU-LAX makes LAX-ICN night-time flight, which has much better performance than daytime LAX-ICN, and the plane that arrives ICN early in the morning can be used for intra-Asian short-haul route which would be impossible if GRU-LAX were red-eye. That's a lot, overall. But we'll see if KE changes GRU-LAX nighttime or not someday.
Ca2ohHP From United States of America, joined Sep 2005, 932 posts, RR: 2 Reply 24, posted (3 years 4 months 5 hours ago) and read 16287 times:
Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 14): They have not applied, but an application for DTW-GRU would not surprise me - good route, DL can do well.
Makes about as much sense as CLT-GIG, based on demographics?
25 LipeGIG: DTW is not a good place for connections considering mostly demand from US to Brazil is located on East Coast or Southwest. Who DTW can attract that i
26 MAH4546: Entirely different scenarios. First of all, Sao Paulo is not Rio de Janeiro. DTW-GIG is just as stupid an idea as CLT-GIG is; CLT-GRU actually could
27 LipeGIG: We continue to disagree on this. CLT-GIG or CLT-GRU will work, CLT-GIG have more chances in fact than CLT-GRU considering competition out of GRU and
28 Peergynt: On a somewhat separate but still connecting west coast to Brazil. Why no direct flights from SFP to GRU or GIG?
29 MAH4546: Considering how airlines struggle as is in the much larger LAX-Brazil market, not sure how SFO-Brazil would work either.
30 USAirALB: Or perhaps they will go to US for there GRU service?
31 LipeGIG: The problem with west coast, in my view, is the fact that passengers use to fly with different airlines, so even with a non-stop SFO-GIG or SFO-GRU,
32 Cubsrule: I think that's right, and folks in LAX also have options through MEX, PTY, LIM, etc. The problem is also exacerbated by the fact that the west coast
33 IrishAyes: KL already flies direct GRU-AMS. Flying GRU-DTW-AMS is backtracking by nearly 3,000 miles. Just look at the great circle mapper. http://gc.kls2.com/c
34 LipeGIG: That's true, plus the fact that the big advantage of LAX and West Coast, connections to Asia, disappear when the USA government imposes the transit v
35 MAH4546: Definitely not. US Airways needs a daily service to make it work. US Airways has applied to switch frequencies with Delta that will allow US Airways
36 Hardiwv: Local O&D business because of car industry for example. I know the car indutry business has been after this flight for decades. DTW is a major NW hub
37 MAH4546: Regardless, the local market is still tiny. The car industry connections are a bonus, but they alone can in no way make this flight work.
38 Hardiwv: The local O&D (which I expect to be about 10%-20% of the LF) plus domestic/Canada and Asian connections will make this flight have far greater chance
39 DeltaL1011man: Anderson said in his last chat it should be done in Feb(didn't give any more of a time frame than that).
40 VC10er: I hate to ask this... What does O&D mean?
41 USPIT10L: Origin and destination. Basically O&D is the local traffic of a particular route, as opposed to connecting or online/interline traffic.
42 LipeGIG: Yes, it's a bonus but already flies to Brazil and may be uses DL, if they have corporate agreements with NW and DL, or another airline. And no matter
43 WA707atMSP: If DTW-GRU becomes a reality, it would be only the second time an airline has flown from the Detroit area to South America. The Detroit area's only ot
44 Airbazar: The only reason why GRU-LAX worked in the past was because it was just a "fuel stop" on the Brazil-Japan market. Without Japan at the other end feedi
45 LipeGIG: I agree 100% with you. Plus the fact that RG manage to offer LAX-GRU-GIG which is a better product than sole GRU flight. If the transit is not that b
46 Hardiwv: Therefore it will free space on DL ATL-GRU. As you said many times, a new flight also generates new markets and this is the case of DTW-GRU. Many bus
47 MaverickM11: GRULAX never had a snowball's chance, but DTWGRU has some solid high yield demand. It may be small like CLT or even ATL GIG/GRU (before the nonstops)
48 Hardiwv: I fully agree with you. The car industry alone will demand a good amount of premium ticket as Sao Paulo-Detroit will connect two of the world's bigge
49 Airbazar: I know they are, and as has been stated here many times, the performance of the route is less than ideal. That's despite the continuation to ICN and
50 Hardiwv: KE is a profitable, top quality, airline. I assume they know the results of the route and btw the route will make two years in June. Any suggestion r
51 LipeGIG: You might be right, but so far, the flight to GIG is surprising every one, specially on business class. Still, against US there's the fact that the e
52 Cubsrule: I agree, though I don't know that, at least in coach, US' 767s are any worse than DL's or AA's.
53 MAH4546: Atlanta-Brazil has always been a respectably sized market. Varig flew to Atlanta before Delta did.
54 LipeGIG: The flights created such a market and you have strong corporations like Coca-Cola (Rio) but a lot of mid-size corporations also see the opportunity o
55 Panamair: I doubt whether they will shred JFK-GRU too much (if at all) to fund DTW. Firstly, DTW-GRU will not be daily (probably start off with the same 3x wee
56 Hardiwv: There was a large Georgia trade mission to Brazil in 2008 and there is increasing links in the area of biofuels. http://stateofgeorgiamissions.com/bl
57 MaverickM11: The local ATLGRU market is about ~40, whereas DTW is around 20-30 PDEW, without service and with a high yield component. The only question is how eas
58 Airbazar: I don't disagree with all that you're saying. I'm just saying, all evidence points to the fact that the route is not a very good performer. For start
59 MaverickM11: Between the LF they've been posting, and the prevailing fares in the market, there's pretty much no way they're making money on that segment.
60 Airzim: Not quite profitable. Korean Air posted a 2009 net loss of KRW61.2 billion ($53.8 million) today. KE is hardly what I'd call a top quality airline. T
61 LACA773: It's too bad DL couldn't make this flight work. This is a problem for AV's BOG-LAX-BOG flights. It's not daily and like we all know the many who fly
62 Peanuts: I can appreciate DL "throwing darts on a map", you win some, you lose some. It seems a little extreme at times though. Most of the market research cou
63 Airzim: Most US airports don't have airside transit so you have to enter the US upon arrival to the first port of entry to make a connection. This is true fo
64 Yellowtail: I think I get to put myself in the "I had the winning position on this camp". DL should just give up trying LAX-Latin America FOREVER.
65 C010T3: It's been like that as long as I remember. Perhaps it has always been like that.
66 OA412: True although none of the Northern Brazil frequencies are transferable to GRU right? So they'll just have to either steal from their existing flights
67 OP3000: Given the continued terrorist incidents (like the DL AMS-DTW last month) that's not going to change anytime soon (the in-transit procedure). Although
68 MAH4546: The Northeast frequencies cannot be used to GRU or GIG, but can be used to any other Brazilian airport authorized for U.S. service. Transferring the
69 LACA773: No it hasn't. I believe this occured after 9/11 and Brazil made having a Visa mandatory when traveling from the US. This really affected JL and RG's
70 AAEXP: The US has required visas for Brazilian citizens for decades. What changed after 9/11 was that the US required Brazilian citizens to have their pictu
71 MaverickM11: But that'll only leave them with 2 frequncies in the market, maybe 3 if they move one back from JFK?
73 Hardiwv: Thanks for the numbers. I think we are both agreeing! This is a good summary of the situation. I also dont see any problem in DL transfering LAX-GRU
74 MAH4546: JFK-GRU frequencies are unrestricted; Delta can do whatever they want. The only possible scenario where transferring the LAX-GRU frequencies might be
75 Airbazar: They don't have it today because the new, post 9/11 regulations make them useless. MIA, LAX, HNL are 3 airports that I have personally transited thro
76 AAEXP: As for the visa requirement for transit passengers you are right. I even think that was introduced quite sometime after 9/11 ? (not sure). In any cas
77 Klkla: It really is too bad. I have flown this flight three round trips in the last year and it was an amazing convenience and time saver for me. We all kne
78 Hardiwv: This is correct, Europe (LHR/FRA/AMS/CDG/MUC/ZRH) carry the bulk of Brazil-Asia connections with DXB and IST making susbtantive inroads into this mar
79 OP3000: What I don't get is why they kept competing instead of working with their partner KE, and clearly diluting each other's chances.
80 LipeGIG: Agreed. On July/09 they got strong numbers. That's a problem with any LAX flight to deep south America and/or Colombia/Venezuela. It's already servic
81 Klkla: Well, not for me personally. I cannot upgrade on Korean using my PMUs or miles. I agree with you but in a separate sense. They should have flown on s
82 MAH4546: They do not share revenue, have ATI nor can they even codeshare between the United States and Brazil.
83 LipeGIG: It's very good for LAX O&D but for the others is not so great. They did promote the flight, offering in Brazil C/J for US$ 2,200 R/T, making events,
84 Klkla: I was referring to the U.S. side where they did nothing to promote this flight. As someone that has flown Delta at least 10 times in the last couple
85 C010T3: That's not true. The frequencies can only be used to points in the North, Northeast and Midwest regions of Brazil and/or Belo Horizonte. You're confu
87 Klkla: My bad... I forgot. Do coach passengers have the same system as business and first class or are they still stuck with the antiquated betamax movies t
88 Cubsrule: Well, it adds - it just doesn't add appreciably. SEA-GRU is about 5 percent longer via LAX than via DFW, for instance, and LAS-GRU is about 4 percent
89 Jetlanta: Actually, Cubs, this is highly debatable. The important days for business travel in MOST markets are Monday, Thursday, Friday and Sunday. Tuesday and
90 Cubsrule: You are absolutely correct that some days are more important than others. But then the question becomes how many days the service needs, and that's a
91 LipeGIG: Only US do not offer it, but it's the only one that flies only to GIG. AA offers PTV on 777's to GRU. Schedule and price... lets say, AA offers ariva
92 United1: Its not AVOD, its the same system that they have always had on the 763s but IIRC they switched to a digital file system vs the older tape driven ones
93 SurfandSnow: Until Delta starts flying from LAX to the likes of SFO and SEA with its own a/c, I don't see how flights like GRU or other Latin American VFR flights
95 Hardiwv: I agree with you and this is in contrast with KE which did quite some good promotion and marketing about LAX-GRU. Try to compare for example the prom
96 C010T3: Not quite, though I did quote the wrong excerpt.
97 DeltaL1011man: SEA and PDX wont happen unless something happens to AS. I shouldn't say wont, SEA and PDX are very unlikely, They may try to run a 737 or two to each
98 Cubsrule: What has changed in the past three years that would allow this plan - quite similar to what they tried last buildup - to succeed?
99 DeltaL1011man: 1) would be nothing like the last build up that was all 50 seaters. 2) now they have flights to feed, LAX-SYD,LAX-NRT,LAX-MEL(VA),LAX-BNE(VA) plus ad
100 LAXdude1023: Color me suprised. I dont think there is room for two carriers on that market. Given that KE provides better service, thats probably better for LAX pa
101 Klkla: That's very subjective. They're hard product is slightly better in business (angled lie flats but in a 2-3-2 arrangement with 42% of passengers not h
102 LAXintl: Well LA-Mexico keeps getting weaker for Delta as AeroMexico continues to seed flights and capacity to folks like Volaris. With DL basically out of LA
103 Avek00: Delta talks a good game about building up LAX (and longhaul gateways generally beyond ATL/JFK), but in practice it proves to have halting success at b
104 Cubsrule: Let's take those points in order. Most flights were 50 seaters, but there were plenty of mainline flights too (CMH, JAX, RDU, BOS, etc.). At risk fly
105 LipeGIG: Seems to be as the route will no longer be available, even with another equipment. Just need to go on DOT reports and you will see that on market tha
106 Incitatus: Jet - In the context of this thread I am going to use your own argument to disagree with you. US carriers flying longhaul to Europe and South America
107 Cubsrule: Agreed. I don't think daily service is necessary, but I think 5 times a week is the minimum a flight like this needs to be competitive. Southbound fl
108 DeltaL1011man: ah ok cool stuff. Thanks for the answer OA and thanks for the web site cubs
109 Yellowtail: WorldTraveler can always give us some "inside insight" on DL topics.....where is he? on vacation perhaps?
110 WorldTraveler: It’s nice to be missed... I am doing a fair amount of traveling so my a.net time is sometimes at a premium. My take on LAX-GRU; details might not be
111 C010T3: If ORD could, I wouldn't know, but there is only once daily ORD-GRU service. AA does not fly the route, only UA does.
113 AAEXP: Could you elaborate a little more on this point please?
114 Laxintl: Was it not supposed to be another shining star in DL's larger LAX ambitions, with a key Latin America connection? I think United will be making so
115 OP3000: What other moves in South America, besides adding capacity to GRU/GIG?
116 WorldTraveler: there are more than enough publicly available pieces of data to show that GRU average fares have taken a pretty significant hit over the past year. N
117 Hardiwv: JL stated it will stay in GRU. I think you need to update your data which looks pretty outdated. GRU and Brazil-US market has recovered very quickly
118 WorldTraveler: ...have nothing to do w/ what carriers actually receive. GRU is recovering simply because of the seasonality... Dec compared to Sept looks better but
119 C010T3: That was before bankruptcy and before it ditched AA.
120 Hardiwv: No, the recovery is structural and in line with the sustained recovery of the Brazilian economy, My evidence points somewhere else! It seems airlines
121 AAEXP: WorlsTraveler, please state your case re GRU in on place and all at once. You seem to be all over the place, even though I am sure you have good argu
122 CODC10: Just like India... if DL can't make money flying to a destination, NOBODY can!
123 LipeGIG: Hardi, allow me 2 corrections: There's no 4th Daily MIA-GRU. AA runs 3 daily 2 weekend flights = 23 flights per week and CA is just coming back after
124 Incitatus: In the end it seems that whether JL stays at GRU does not matter much. What market share does JL have of the Brazil-Japan market? It is probably very
125 LipeGIG: Back to this, i just can't see how DTW can support 3 weekly flights to Brazil. First because it's a limited service, second because of the same geogr
126 Cubsrule: Ask yourself whether ORD-GRU makes money for UA. While neither of us can answer that question with certainty, the signs point to yes, I think. UA doe
127 Commavia: Chicago does not = Detroit. Chicago is a larger hub, and a far larger market. Detroit may have links to Brazil via the auto industry (like Detroit's
128 Cubsrule: No, but Detroit also isn't Toledo or Grand Rapids. It's a reasonably large city. What difference does the size of the hub make? What cities with any
129 Peanuts: DL has the leverage to direct that traffic not only over ATL,but some of it over DTW and JFK. I don't think 3 DTW-GRU flights are that unthinkable. B
130 WorldTraveler: At this point there is not enough data to say it is structural. Year over year, revenue is still significantly down. The recovery that has been seen
131 Commavia: I don't believe the proceeding for the next round of Brazil frequencies has been opened yet, has it? When it is, I'm pretty sure we're going to see A
132 WorldTraveler: when it does.. and when the routes are awarded, we can discuss prospects... the DOT is not unaware of what AA is getting in revenue and DL can and wi
133 LipeGIG: Probably ORD-GRU makes money But... Chicago is more of a services city rather than Detroit which in my view is a industrial one. ORD is a bigger hub
134 Cubsrule: But all of this, presupposes, doesn't it, that DL would cannibalize its existing services with DTW-GRU. Why do you assume that? And, in your view, wh
135 Commavia: Right, so Delta will argue that AA shouldn't get frequencies because they're supposedly losing money on some of them, but still flying them all, and
136 LipeGIG: IIRC the frequencies are available to begin in October 2010 but Coiote can give us better indications In my view, 2 daylight ATL-GRU on weekends and
137 Cubsrule: ...which obviously answers the question about local traffic, but what about connecting traffic? Why would DL only get the GRB-GRU passengers who fly
138 MaverickM11: You keep saying that like it's a meaningful statistic. DL's MAO average fare is probably higher than half its route network, yet DL flies MAO as litt
139 LipeGIG: The question is, do you see DTW in conditions to got traffic from AA (DFW, JFK, MIA) or CO (IAH and EWR) ? UA may be from ORD, not from IAD in my vie
140 C010T3: Just like they are making JFK-GRU work with all those irregularities? Yes, 14 frequencies will become available in October. GRU is again forbidden te
141 Cubsrule: I don't know how much difference 6/week versus 7/week makes. If it were 3 or 4 a week now, I'd agree that an added frequency is valuable, but the mar
142 Incitatus: There is no reason that DL cannot make JFK-EZE work if AA can.
143 Hardiwv: Airlines are adding flights to Brazil and the recovery is structural. In fact flights/capacity which were cut have also been recovered (this applies
144 LipeGIG: Small difference i agree, but JFK is a bigger market and if DL is focused to New York, better to complete the daily flight. Yes, i agree, but they ar
145 Incitatus: There are two points to this potential service: DTW and DL. I have questioned before the amount of traffic to be had from DTW automaking. There is so
146 Laxintl: You realize however Detroit is a dying and rather marginalized local O&D market right? The population of Detroit has shrunk almost 50% in the last 40
147 MaverickM11: I've wondered what implications this has for the hub, but that's another thread. However, looking at a snapshot today, I still think it has a solid c
148 Jetlanta: Terribly simplistic analysis. Chicago may be a much larger O&D, but the market is divided between three significant domestic carriers and a whole sle
149 Cws818: If we are talking about US-GRU, however, WN isn't terribly relevant.
150 CODC10: Yet when DL can no longer compete with CO in the NYC-India market, it's somehow a coup? I have it on EVP-level authority that CO counts their EWR-DEL
151 Laxintl: Simplistic but quite valid. Detroit is a shrinking market both population and economically. As time goes on the hub will be ever more reliant on conn
152 LACA773: Thank you! Finally! Someone mentions the horribly financial disasterous city of what Detroit really is. Local traffic to GRU? I think it's more reaso
153 WorldTraveler: except that the percentage of money being lost is much higher for the airline that is operating all of its frequencies... again, yo seem fixated w/ g
154 MAH4546: It is no fantasy. AA has already publicly and officially stated its intention to apply for the route in the near future. The fantasy is you believing
155 WorldTraveler: until AA has made a formal route application and been awarded additional frequencies, it is merely a fantasy... What might have been said months ago
156 Hardiwv: You forget the traffic generated by the industry related to car components which sometimes generates even more traffic than the car industry itself.
157 C010T3: I pretty sure CO is not envisioning that traffic. GIG-IAH-EWR is a huge detour and is not competitive at all. Even if CO captures some of that traffi
158 Jetlanta: It is completely relevant when we are talking about the strength of the DTW hub. Chicago may be a larger O&D market, but it supports three separate h
159 WorldTraveler: precisely. DTW is a large hub with connectivity that is no different than ORD and quite a bit better in many respects than other gateways such as DFW
160 MaverickM11: Yes but as the car industry goes, so goes DTW, and overall the long term trend is real ugly. It's also not that clear a tradeoff as you make and I kn
161 CODC10: This is not correct. CO loads to India have been rather healthy as of late, and premium cabin revenue continues to drive a profit on the routes. The
162 MaverickM11: No. That wasn't the reason at all. Still wouldn't make a difference as most of those connections are better served by DL over ATL anyway.
163 Cubsrule: Do you have market share data for DTW? We may not see it today, but I suspect that in 2-3 years, DL would probably have 40-50 percent of that market
164 Jetlanta: DL already has a share in that range...42%. CO had about 18% during this period (YE Dec08), while it was still a part of SkyTeam.
165 Flyinryan99: For the first time in a long time I am going agree with you. There is still plenty of things going on here that DOESN'T have to do with the Auto indu
166 CALPSAFltSkeds: How surprising after WT kept saying the 772ER was the wrong aircraft for NYC-India since DL operated the 772LR until pulling out. I guess the 772LR (
167 CODC10: The 772ER's lower trip costs may be a reason why CO is doing reasonably well on the EWR-BOM/DEL flights. CO also has agreements with Kingfisher to se
168 Hardiwv: What is the best alternative for EWR pax to fly down to GIG? Flying via IAH is not much longer than say MIA or IAD or ATL. Also dont forget that CO h
169 Incitatus: Nonsense. The difference is AA = MIA and DL = ATL. This is real simple to grasp. Beyond automaking and auto parts, the business connections are thin.
170 Cubsrule: ...which would make a sensible guess for market share without a nonstop probably somewhere in the 55-60 percent range. Of course - but they might con
171 MAH4546: I still am supportive of that, but priority right now should be Brasilia - the largest unserved market between Miami and Latin America. I don't need
172 Incitatus: Some might but others for sure will not. For example, someone working with office furniture in Grand Rapids going to Rio will probably never consider
173 MaverickM11: Eh, which part? That DL has the lowest LF in NYCGRU or the lowest average fare?
174 Peanuts: No it won't. If anything, DTW will catch some Asia traffic, more so than JFK. Three frequencies from DTW will not cannibalize JFK or ATL. DTW is an e
175 Jetlanta: But DL still owns the state, basically. Whether it is Kellogg's, Whirlpool, Amway, Dow or GM and Ford, Delta's got most of it. I'm curious, what are
176 MAH4546: I'm very highly critical about Delta's attempts (and multiple failures) in Latin America, and even I will admit that DTW-GRU is going to work right ou
177 Cubsrule: I don't know that it'll get that high only because there may be some folks who spend a lot of time in Latin America who need to use AA/CO because of
178 Incitatus: Have you looked at data before writing this - even some basic schedules? For example, PVG-DTW-GRU. PVG-DTW comes in at 11-12 noon. The earliest DL is
179 OA412: Wasn't revenue data posted on here a little while ago showing that DL had a slightly higher average fare on JFK-GRU than did AA? Wasn't data posted o
180 MaverickM11: That's *really* wishful thinking. 90% market share between two well connected cities that are far apart just doesn't happen that often. DL barely mai
181 Panamair: If adding all flat-beds to LHR is indicative of a "desperate" carrier, you may want to add CO to that list, given CO's rush to ensure flat-beds on al
182 OA412: As I recall, CO specifically mentioned their "rush" to add lie-flats to the market when they announced the 4th daily. But then, CO is just doing what
183 MAH4546: I don't believe so. Correct; albeit there is not much room for Delta to grow anywhere in Latin America right now, so it will have to stick with what
184 Jetlanta: I'm fairly certain there is a premium revenue component that will drive success here, more so than volume. That is the link that many aren't seeing.
185 Peanuts: Yes. I also look at historical data before I post, thank you. Did I? Keyword: some NW in the past had two NRT-DTW flights. One of them arriving LATER
186 MaverickM11: No the braintrust was trying to tell us that ATLMAO's average fare was slightly higher than the average fare of some of AA's secondary Brazil adds. I
187 Cubsrule: NRT 1955 DTW 1735 DTW 1935 GRU 0910 +1 GRU 2150 DTW 0545 +1 DTW 0745 NRT 1115 +1 It's actually not a terrible schedule, and with the aircraft sitting
188 WorldTraveler: But there won't be 2 nonstop US carriers in the market... that's the fact you don't want to admit... DL has every likelihood of doing as well on JFKG
189 MaverickM11: I admit it freely. DL was the only US carrier in LAXGRU and it was a disaster. Same with ATLREC.
190 CODC10: Well, perhaps I could have phrased my statement better. I was pointing out the service improvements that DL is making in a strong, but largely unsucc
191 MAH4546: There is virtually no competition to Northeast Brazil, either. AA is the only airline flying non-stop between anywhere in North America and both Salv
192 Yellowtail: Me too..on both points. Seems like anything to LIM works...you could probably do MEM-LIM and make it work. LIM seems to be one of the strongest marke
193 MAH4546: MEM-LIM isn't going to work, just like DFW-LIM did not work. DTW-LIM has potential because Lima has a sizeable market to Asia that is probably second
194 CODC10: I can assure you that Jeff Smisek and Larry Kellner have two very different management styles. Smisek is already making his mark in smaller, behind-t
195 WorldTraveler: except that AA's average fare to CNF is lower than DL's to FOR or MAO. Despite all the bashing of ATLMAO, DL managed to generate half as much revenue
196 Jetlanta: I did a while back. Just looked again. This isn't DOT data. Most of you know where mine comes from... YE Dec09 Local O&D Traffic and Average Fares: A
197 OA412: Oh no I'm well aware of that. No what I was thinking of is below. Thanks. I thought I saw something like this. DTW-LIM? Interesting. I didn't know th
198 WorldTraveler: not doubting that and I fully expect that CO will be aggressive just as it has - and it will take advantage of opportunities afforded by Star. But al
199 WorldTraveler: a 5% average fare premium over AA's BEST performing new Brazil market -SSA- and a 20% premium over their worst performing route - CNF - is hardly jus
200 MAH4546: AA operates with a 75L to REC and SSA. So try again. AA is playing its cards right in Brazil by maintaining a consistent schedule and building a loya
201 MaverickM11: ...being? Well apparently your choice on this thread is either LF data or fare data, but never both together . DOT data still shows DL having the low
202 OP3000: That's good, but it was supposed to be a much stronger partnership deal to begin with.[Edited 2010-02-02 20:07:58]
203 LipeGIG: But they are not all located in Detroit. This segment is sparse among many states in the USA. I see in Michigan state ArvinMeritor, TRW, Delphi and V
204 Jetlanta: It's not hard at all. The fare I am citing is the O&D fare. It is the average fare that DTW-GRU paxs paid on average across all carriers and all rout
205 OP3000: There's a lot of better or at least equally good connection options from LIM to Asia: LAX (10x a week on LA), SFO (4x on LA), plus ATL and IAH. Where
206 LipeGIG: Thanks for the explanation but i still not convinced that even with such premium, DTW-GRU can manage to become a winner. Could be that now DTW has mo
207 LAXdude1023: At what price? Im glad DL's hub is going so well for Detroit, but thats about all Detroit has going for it now. The city is in absolute shambles (not
208 MAH4546: Apples and oranges. Lima is in an excellent position to connect the West Coast to the rest of Latin America, and Sao Paulo is not. Lima-Los Angeles a
209 OP3000: Huh? What does VFR have to do with Asia? I was referring to DTW-LIM not being able to grab enough Asia traffic since there's much more direct options
210 MAH4546: Going via Detroit only adds about 500 miles. In the grand scheme of things, that isn't much at all, and depending on schedules, via Detroit could be
211 Klkla: I think you were on to something with this. In the current environment Delta needs to take a step back and realize that neither LAX or DTW make sense
212 WorldTraveler: AA has gone back and forth... more back to the 767. wait... if it's a 757, then there isn't much cargo potential... so which is it. fixed costs of an
213 LipeGIG: Yes Kikla, that's the point focusing in why to open a 3rd gateway with opportunities on the other 2. Asia is not a need from Sao Paulo, the transit v
214 LAXdude1023: The difference is that EWR has O&D, is surrounded by more larger O&D markets, and can feed Europe and Asia. DTW can only feed Asia and its in a crapp
215 Hardiwv: The part you said GIG has lower LF does not match. You forget about the structural growth in US-Brazil traffic both leisure and business. This is the
216 LipeGIG: But Hardi, again, these automakers are all around the United States. You can't say that there's only high yielding travel, as you can see the CEO fly
217 STT757: In all these threads we keep getting lectured on how DL gets the higher fares on these important routes, yet somehow DL is second from the bottom in
218 WorldTraveler: yet you do realize that in many of the markets that DTW and EWR compete directly on, DL/NW from DTW have comparable if not higher fares. The fixation
219 Incitatus: That completely conflicts with the idea that DL wants to be the biggest carrier in New York. Or that it wants to be a much bigger carrier at LAX. The
220 LAXdude1023: They might, but EWR is a much larger local market, so there is still more to be made there. DTW is small by any means, but its certainly small to Lat
221 WorldTraveler: DL wants to obtain the best revenue.... Depending on how NYC is defined, that honor goes to CO and likely will for quite some time... if it is NY onl
222 Incitatus: This thread is about yet another poorly thought idea from DL to serve Brazil beyond ATL-GRU and ATL-GIG ended up a flop. And here you are on a haste
223 MaverickM11: DL already does gets the largest share of GRUNRT traffic of any US carrier. It didn't get any bigger when DL flooded Brazil and NRT with seats in Sum
224 SA7700: This thread has veered way off-topic from Delta's services between LAX and GRU. Please note that the thread will be locked. All posts added to the thr
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