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The Game Begins-2010 U.S.-HND Allocation  
User currently offlineAaway From United States of America, joined Oct 2003, 1523 posts, RR: 14
Posted (4 years 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 26367 times:

Procedural Timetable:

In light of our stated goal of reaching a prompt final decision, we intend to process this case on an accelerated procedural schedule. Therefore, we are establishing the following procedural schedule for submissions:
Petitions for Reconsideration: February 2, 2010
Answers to Petitions: February 5, 2010
New Applications February 10, 2010
Answers: February 22, 2010
Replies: March 1, 2010


DOCKET-DOT-OST-2010-0018


With a choice between changing one's mind & proving there's no need to do so, most everyone gets busy on the proof.
354 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineMAH4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 32791 posts, RR: 72
Reply 1, posted (4 years 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 26403 times:

I would not be shocked if it just is one application each from UA (SFO), DL (SEA), AA (LAX) and HA (HNL) for seven weekly flights and it's done with.

The wildcard is whether CO will bid even though the timings would be horrendous for EWR or IAH.



a.
User currently offlineAaway From United States of America, joined Oct 2003, 1523 posts, RR: 14
Reply 2, posted (4 years 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 26343 times:

The UA a.netters probably have a better feel for this...I'm thinking a UA submission is 50/50 SFO vs. IAD (in a continuation of the Capitol to Capitol theme).

Edit - If CO files for authority, I'm guessing the proposal would entail EWR-HND ops during the initial portion of the curfew - 22:00ish arrival and 00:00 return. Otherwise, a long ROG period by bookending the curfew period

[Edited 2010-01-26 23:58:05 by aaway - never post during a time when you're normally asleep. My original reply re: a potential EWR turn was total non-sense.]

[Edited 2010-01-27 00:00:05 by aaway]


With a choice between changing one's mind & proving there's no need to do so, most everyone gets busy on the proof.
User currently offlineHAL From United States of America, joined Jan 2002, 2561 posts, RR: 53
Reply 3, posted (4 years 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 26333 times:

We (HA) seem to be concentrating on SEA - with possible SEA-ANC coming soon. I wouldn't be surprised if we put in for HNL and SEA to HND.

HAL



One smooth landing is skill. Two in a row is luck. Three in a row and someone is lying.
User currently offlineCospn From Northern Mariana Islands, joined Oct 2001, 1620 posts, RR: 0
Reply 4, posted (4 years 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 26296 times:

Hopefully CO can get back one of the HND-GUM flights it operated before being "forced out" to NRT
in 1978 or so plus a new Slot for EWR...

All former HND carriers should be restored before "Newbies" get any slots


User currently offlineAaway From United States of America, joined Oct 2003, 1523 posts, RR: 14
Reply 5, posted (4 years 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 12 hours ago) and read 26248 times:



Quoting Cospn (Reply 4):
All former HND carriers should be restored before "Newbies" get any slots

Interesting perspective. Therefore, UA (as successor to PA), and DL (as successor to NW) would also get first dibs?



With a choice between changing one's mind & proving there's no need to do so, most everyone gets busy on the proof.
User currently offlineZvezda From Lithuania, joined Aug 2004, 10511 posts, RR: 64
Reply 6, posted (4 years 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 25995 times:

In my opinion, the right way to allocate rights is by auction for a period of several years. That ensures that the airline with the strongest business case is likely to win and that maximizes the benefit to the consumers/passengers.

User currently offlineAvek00 From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 4387 posts, RR: 19
Reply 7, posted (4 years 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 25797 times:



Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 1):
I would not be shocked if it just is one application each from UA (SFO), DL (SEA), AA (LAX) and HA (HNL) for seven weekly flights and it's done with.

CO would be foolish not to bid for EWR-HND, and I wouldn't rule out CO bidding for IAH/LAX-HND, either. Whatever they got is going to be thrown into the JV pot with UA and NH anyways, so there's no financial downside to UA by CO putting in an application.



Live life to the fullest.
User currently offlineZentraedi From Japan, joined Jun 2007, 660 posts, RR: 0
Reply 8, posted (4 years 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 25714 times:

I would love an HND-ORD route.  pray 

User currently offlineCALPSAFltSkeds From United States of America, joined Dec 2006, 2640 posts, RR: 9
Reply 9, posted (4 years 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 25616 times:



Quoting Avek00 (Reply 7):
CO would be foolish not to bid for EWR-HND, and I wouldn't rule out CO bidding for IAH/LAX-HND, either. Whatever they got is going to be thrown into the JV pot with UA and NH anyways, so there's no financial downside to UA by CO putting in an application.

There was a thread going into more detail on this issue a couple of months ago. There will be more slots in Oct when the new runway is online. Therefore, CO should bid for slots and then get better slots in Oct to retime EWR and IAH. The original slots could then be used for HNL or GUM.


User currently offlineMogandoCI From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 10, posted (4 years 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 25571 times:

is the beginning of a split airport scenario (some airlines going to HND, others to NRT, just like London or New York), or the eventual demise of Narita (like Mirabel)

Tokyo is way too large a metropolitan to have all flights going out from one field, but yet all forces are pulling away from NRT. Sad.


User currently offlineLuckyone From United States of America, joined Aug 2008, 2172 posts, RR: 0
Reply 11, posted (4 years 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 25526 times:



Quoting Aaway (Reply 2):
in a continuation of the Capitol to Capitol theme

I think you mean CapitAl to CapitAl  Smile CapitOl is the actual building  Smile That'd be quite a feat!

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 1):
I would not be shocked if it just is one application each from UA (SFO), DL (SEA), AA (LAX) and HA (HNL) for seven weekly flights and it's done with.

Just out of curiosity, maybe I didn't understand your post as you intended. By these routings do you mean the ones that the respective airlines would apply for, or the ones that they would be awarded? If so, what are your thoughts on why Delta would pick Seattle over LAX?


User currently offlineSTT757 From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 16872 posts, RR: 51
Reply 12, posted (4 years 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 25508 times:



Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 1):
The wildcard is whether CO will bid even though the timings would be horrendous for EWR or IAH.

What about Guam-Haneda, if they could only get one I guess EWR would be the route. However if they were able to get times other airlines find unattractive for Trans-Pacific routes perhaps CO could grab them for Guam.



Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
User currently offlineFWAERJ From United States of America, joined Jun 2006, 3755 posts, RR: 2
Reply 13, posted (4 years 7 months 4 weeks 23 hours ago) and read 25218 times:



Quoting Zentraedi (Reply 8):
I would love an HND-ORD route.

My gut feeling is that a certain AAirline would agree with you when the route proceedings start.

IMO, UA will probably go for SFO-HND, and AA would have far more domestic feed at ORD (their primary Asian gateway) than LAX, so I see AA going for ORD-HND and not LAX-HND. That, plus the JL wildcard.



"Did he really need the triple bypass? Or was it the miles?"
User currently offlineMAH4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 32791 posts, RR: 72
Reply 14, posted (4 years 7 months 4 weeks 23 hours ago) and read 25175 times:

Quoting FWAERJ (Reply 13):

My gut feeling is that a certain AAirline would agree with you when the route proceedings start.

IMO, UA will probably go for SFO-HND, and AA would have far more domestic feed at ORD (their primary Asian gateway) than LAX, so I see AA going for ORD-HND and not LAX-HND.



Quoting Avek00 (Reply 7):

CO would be foolish not to bid for EWR-HND, and I wouldn't rule out CO bidding for IAH/LAX-HND, either.

Please propose to me schedules for EWR-HND and ORD-HND that will work to lure business travelers and connections based on Haneda's time restrictions that require the flights to operate into Haneda after 2200 and leave before 0700.

The frequencies will likely not be city-pair restricted as DOT is proposing to move away from that, so carriers can apply for West Coast pairs and move to them east in the future when/if the time restrictions are removed.

While I would not entirely rule out applications like ORD-HND on AA or EWR-HND on CO, it just isn't going to work with the schedules, but airlines might be willing to take the risk that passengers will put up with inconvenience for using Haneda. Still, though, feed is going to be difficult, and the routes need feed, as large the local markets might be.

Or, airlines might just be willing to put up with the routes, develop them at bad times, and be very optimistic that the time restrictions will be quickly dropped.

Quoting Luckyone (Reply 11):
Just out of curiosity, maybe I didn't understand your post as you intended. By these routings do you mean the ones that the respective airlines would apply for, or the ones that they would be awarded? If so, what are your thoughts on why Delta would pick Seattle over LAX?

I believe that the carriers will apply for Pacific Coast routes because those are the ones which can best be done within the terrible time restrictions of Haneda. American Airlines is in a better position than Delta at LAX, so assuming the two are competing against each other, then AA would win out over Delta, and Delta probably knows that. DOT takes one-stop domestic feed into significant consideration.

Assuming, though, that only four airlines apply to four cities, then it's a non-issue.

[Edited 2010-01-27 12:40:46]


a.
User currently offlineCODC10 From United States of America, joined Jul 2000, 2412 posts, RR: 6
Reply 15, posted (4 years 7 months 4 weeks 23 hours ago) and read 25067 times:



Quoting CALPSAFltSkeds (Reply 9):
There was a thread going into more detail on this issue a couple of months ago. There will be more slots in Oct when the new runway is online. Therefore, CO should bid for slots and then get better slots in Oct to retime EWR and IAH. The original slots could then be used for HNL or GUM.

This seems like a viable strategy for CO/HND. CO has 2 777s arriving this year that will be scheduled into the system to add lift, but if HND becomes an option, I'm sure CO could find the airplanes for the route.

A proposed schedule might look something like this:

EWR-HND
depart 1900
arrive 2305+1

HND-EWR
depart 0145
arrive 0030

The eastbound flight would be pretty miserable, but I think such a schedule is workable. It definitely favors business in Tokyo.

CO could then slot-squat, so to speak, for a few months, until more favorable slots open up, and then could transfer these slots to a GUM-HND frequency with the following, more appropriate schedule:

GUM-HND
depart 2025
arrive 2305

HND-GUM
depart 0145
arrive 0620


User currently offlineMAH4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 32791 posts, RR: 72
Reply 16, posted (4 years 7 months 4 weeks 22 hours ago) and read 25038 times:



Quoting CODC10 (Reply 15):

The eastbound flight would be pretty miserable, but I think such a schedule is workable. It definitely favors business in Tokyo.

Absolutely miserable because the flight can't rely on O&D alone and needs feed when arriving in Newark. If we move back the departure, to say, 0645, it would favor connections on the Newark side, but it wouldn't be very business-passenger friendly to depart so early on a long-haul and then there is the issue of plane utilization by having it parked so long.

The 2300-0700 timing restrictions just suck. They aren't going to allow U.S. carriers to maximize the benefits of Haneda.



a.
User currently onlineOA412 From United States of America, joined Dec 2000, 5279 posts, RR: 24
Reply 17, posted (4 years 7 months 4 weeks 22 hours ago) and read 24936 times:

I wouldn't entirely rule out DL applying for HNL-HND.


Hughes Airwest - Top Banana In The West
User currently offlineKiwiandrew From New Zealand, joined Jun 2005, 8568 posts, RR: 13
Reply 18, posted (4 years 7 months 4 weeks 22 hours ago) and read 24907 times:
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Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 16):
The 2300-0700 timing restrictions just suck. They aren't going to allow U.S. carriers to maximize the benefits of Haneda.

I could be wrong , but I seem to recall that the original hours were more generous and were actually reduced at the behest of the US . Could anyone confirm this ?



Moderation in all things ... including moderation ;-)
User currently offlineMir From United States of America, joined Jan 2004, 21641 posts, RR: 55
Reply 19, posted (4 years 7 months 4 weeks 22 hours ago) and read 24875 times:

I could see something like:

EWR-HND Dep 0100 Arr 0505+1

HND-EWR Dep 0645 Arr 0530

The early arrivals do suck, but it would allow a full day of business in both cities, and an arrivals lounge for the premium pax would likely be put to good use. Another downside is that there would be no opportunity for Japan-HND-EWR feed, but the other feeds would still work.

-Mir



7 billion, one nation, imagination...it's a beautiful day
User currently offlineAaway From United States of America, joined Oct 2003, 1523 posts, RR: 14
Reply 20, posted (4 years 7 months 4 weeks 22 hours ago) and read 24754 times:



Quoting FWAERJ (Reply 13):
I see AA going for ORD-HND and not LAX-HND.

The U.S. delegation did get the Japanese to agree to a 22:00 start, rather than 23:00.

But, there is a specific restriction for returns to the U.S. 48 contiguous - no departures prior to 00:00. That restriction practically eliminates all Central time zone hubs, and DTW, unless a carrier purposely schedules a lengthy remain-on-ground period.

Quoting Luckyone (Reply 11):
I think you mean CapitAl to CapitAl CapitOl is the actual building That'd be quite a feat!

Yeah, should've been  zzz  when I started this.



With a choice between changing one's mind & proving there's no need to do so, most everyone gets busy on the proof.
User currently offlineMAH4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 32791 posts, RR: 72
Reply 21, posted (4 years 7 months 4 weeks 22 hours ago) and read 24755 times:



Quoting Mir (Reply 19):
I could see something like:

EWR-HND Dep 0100 Arr 0505+1

HND-EWR Dep 0645 Arr 0530

I personally don't mind that schedule too much; though I'm probably to be in the minority. It might be worth taking the risk.



a.
User currently offlineAaway From United States of America, joined Oct 2003, 1523 posts, RR: 14
Reply 22, posted (4 years 7 months 4 weeks 21 hours ago) and read 24693 times:



Quoting Kiwiandrew (Reply 18):
Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 16):
The 2300-0700 timing restrictions just suck. They aren't going to allow U.S. carriers to maximize the benefits of Haneda.

I could be wrong , but I seem to recall that the original hours were more generous and were actually reduced at the behest of the US . Could anyone confirm this ?

Under the terms of the 2009 MOU, scheduled operations between the United States and Haneda will be subject to the following conditions: (1) U.S. operations at Haneda will be permitted between 2200 and 0700 hours local time; (2) departures from Haneda to a point in the 48 contiguous U.S. states are not permitted prior to midnight;



With a choice between changing one's mind & proving there's no need to do so, most everyone gets busy on the proof.
User currently offlineCALPSAFltSkeds From United States of America, joined Dec 2006, 2640 posts, RR: 9
Reply 23, posted (4 years 7 months 4 weeks 21 hours ago) and read 24603 times:



Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 14):
Please propose to me schedules for EWR-HND and ORD-HND that will work to lure business travelers and connections based on Haneda's time restrictions that require the flights to operate into Haneda after 2200 and leave before 0700.

From my post 12/2009 on this usbkect:

In the case of CO, I see the application for EWR 1800 NRT 2200-0655 EWR 0530, which will allow for connections in EWR and allow CO to temporarily offer two time frames to/from Tokyo. After the six extra slots are offered, CO would try to pick up two (best case scenario). That would allow CO add a IAH-HND in prime time, move EWR to better times and add HNL with the original EWR slots (HNL1750 HND 2200-0600 HNL 1730). If CO picked up just one slot with the new runway, then CO would add IAH-HND and look to pay to improve the EWR slots.


User currently offlineCospn From Northern Mariana Islands, joined Oct 2001, 1620 posts, RR: 0
Reply 24, posted (4 years 7 months 4 weeks 21 hours ago) and read 24381 times:

CO does not fly NRT-HNL anymore dropped that several years ago...

Quoting Aaway (Reply 5):
Interesting perspective. Therefore, UA (as successor to PA), and DL (as successor to NW) would also get first dibs?

Not sure about "successor" but Continental Micronesia sould get back what was taken away along with others flying to HND that are still operating..PA and NW are not operating anymore, Im sure thats why they waited..

The old Paperwork would say PanAm or Northwest so its probally not valid. But other airlines like KE sure they should get their old slots and times back...

CO (Micronesia) was kicked out of HND so should be first back...before a bunch of "Newbies" DL,UA, and even "Big" CO


25 Centrair : I bet AA will go for JFK, CO for EWR and UA for SFO. It is all logic to me. New York is a major destination for the Japanese, AA and CO can get feed f
26 Airzim : Wouldn't it be possible to CO to run the 762's to HND from EWR thus eliminating the reliance on so much feed on either end? Crew rest might be a probl
27 FL787 : Take a look at an AA timetable. I know AA calls JFK a hub but it does not really serve as a connecting hub like ORD or DFW do. The only places AA fli
28 USAirALB : I can see US going for PHX-HND (What a disaster, )
29 MAH4546 : And BWI, CLE, PIT, YYZ, YUL, YHZ, TPA, MCO, plus soon CMH, not to mention the Caribbean and Latin America. I agree AA won't apply for JFK-HND, but th
30 LAXtoATL : I don't know whether or not a 762 has the range or not, but CO would never waste a valuable slot at HND using an aircraft that small!
31 USAirALB : I can see them applying for DFW
32 FL787 : I meant places that are timed correctly if the HND flight arrives very early in the morning. BWI, CLE, PIT, TPA, and MCO are all timed for Europe con
33 CALMSP : best option posted so far............pretty good schedule if you ask me.
34 Jfk777 : These times are as desirable as week old food. The current NRT schedules are far better leave the USA at noon get to Japan in the afternoon and back
35 HeeseokKoo : I though US and HA have good chance since they are not operating into Japan at this time. We'll see.
36 Avek00 : Others have proposed schedules for EWR-HND that I think are quite reasonable (CALPSAFltSkeds' proposal hits the sweet spot of good connectivity on th
37 Commavia : I, too, agree that in the case of AA at least, I think they will indeed try to go for LAX - something along the lines of: LAX 1845 HND 2200 HND 0005 L
38 MAH4546 : We'll just agree to disagree on "reasonable." They are "reasonable," perhaps, but the schedules are not competitive. So it comes down to how much peo
39 OA412 : Well and assuming that UA, AA, DL and HA all apply for West Coast/Hawaii-HND I'm betting they can all make a very strong case against COs application
40 MAH4546 : They would certainly make such an argument. But, at the same time, CO could make a strong case that it would provide the only East Coast option.
41 OA412 : You're right and I was actually thinking that just now. So in the end, it'll probably be a wash.
42 Globalcabotage : AA and/or UA/NH will apply for ORD - HND. There is no way this will not happen. AA is fighting hard to keep JL and UA/NH are in bed. Someone will fly
43 Centrair : I'll say it again cuz it don't matter the schedule unless it can make money right? The key for HND is going to be high yield O/D from Tokyo catchment
44 Mir : Well, those schedules aren't available at HND, so that's not a possibility. Plus, there are several advantages to a late-night departure from the US.
45 LAXtoATL : The advantage that Haneda has over NRT is the convenience of the location of the airport. If a poor schedule removes those advantages then there is n
46 Laxintl : The schedule window is pretty poor for anything into a US hub beyond Hawaii or the West Coast. The only certainly I see is United going for a SFO-HND,
47 MAH4546 : Agreed 100%. And, based on these ridiculous imposed restrictions, a competitive schedule can only be done from Hawai'i and - arguably - the West Coas
48 Steex : It seems to me like DL could actually submit their application with the intention of running an ATL-SEA-HND route (and reverse). That could potentiall
49 LAXdude1023 : Given the times they have to work with, I dont see how. The times will be so awful it will negate the convenience of flying to HND.
50 OA412 : I wouldn't rule out a tag either ATL or DTW-SEA-HND but the return flight has a rather poor departure time for attracting biz passengers. Of course,
51 HeeseokKoo : I don't see why SEA stop is needed here, especially that HND-SEA arrives SEA too late to connect anywhere. By midnight, all redeye flights are alread
52 ADXMatt : I don't know about the Japan side but there are not many connections on the EWR side of the NRT-EWR. IAH is pretty much all connections. Would a EWR-H
53 SurfandSnow : What is a "petition for reconsideration"? Does this mean we will see the airlines submit their HND proposals today or next week (Wednesday)?
54 MAH4546 : It means that if airlines oppose the schedule of dates, the petitions to reconsider it need to be submitted today.
55 MAH4546 : Well, tomorrow's the deadline. Let's see what happens. Two major developments lately bring two questions: 1) Will AA still go after Haneda access with
56 McMax : Without ATI in place for UA/NH/CO and AA/JL, is it a correct assumption the partners cannot coordinate with, let alone talk to, each other about which
57 MAH4546 : The application deadline has been pushed back to February 15th due to the storms. Yes, that is correct that they cannot coordinate. While there might
58 WorldTraveler : These times also create equally good opportunities for connections on the east coast. Note that CO DL and US (and possibly AA at JFK) are the only ca
59 JFK787NYC : Can anyone tell me why Delta would not do JFK-Haneda? There should be nothing stopping them from doing that and isn't that the most valuable business
60 avek00 : But UA/CO have an advantage is that the two are already immunized, and their immunity grant is applicable worldwide (but for the specified carveouts)
61 LAXdude1023 : Because the times restrictions would make the time restrictions, they would have to leave really late at night or really early in the morning.
62 jfk787nyc : Ok, The only other International carrier at JFK with a Hub operation is American Airlines! Japan Airlines staying with American Airlines and the rest
63 surfandsnow : Certainly would have been tough for our four most likely applicants to divert their attention away from shuttered hubs in New York (AA, DL, and CO) a
64 MAH4546 : CO and UA are not immunized between the U.S. and Japan and cannot talk and coordinate U.S.-Japan route plans. If AA asks for LAX - the single largest
65 avek00 : CO and UA are very much immunized for flying into Japan. The grant of antitrust immunity by USDOT was given on a worldwide basis, except for those ro
66 United1 : Yes they are...the only carve out in Asia was to PEK. UA and CO have full ATI through the rest of Asia.
67 cws818 : And UA at IAD!
68 MAH4546 : I stand corrected then.
69 United1 : AA at MIA....so in other words every US legacy operates a hub in the Eastern Time Zone...
70 avek00 : No worries. But yeah, in light of the ATI, the carriers can "cooperate" on their applications for HND service. I wouldn't even rule out the likes of
71 Post contains images WorldTraveler : so glad the message is getting through!   coffee at ten on Friday at your place? you are correct that DL's overall size could be a disadvantage but
72 MAH4546 : The message has always been through. In 2012 when AA/JL becomes the largest carrier between the U.S. and Japan, then hopefully that message gets thro
73 surfandsnow : So sometime today (probably in the late afternoon) we should be hearing from all of the U.S. carriers that wish to serve HND. I imagine we will see a
74 LAXintl : Today is a national holiday. Federal government offices are closed.
75 WorldTraveler : we'll be waiting.... since that's more than 2 years from now, all of the players have plenty of time to respond.
76 goldenstate : Biggest by what measure? Please elaborate on your prediction.
77 WorldTraveler : just a reminder,MAH, that this summer, DL will offer 314M ASMs per month between the US and Japan compared to AA/JL's combined 214M. Even today, DL i
78 surfandsnow : Whoops! Maybe MAH meant that applications will now be due tomorrow?
79 Post contains links DFWEagle : Well, as expected, UA has applied for one pair of slots for SFO-HND. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/uni...rk-2010-02-16?reflink=MW_news_stmp[Edited
80 LAXintl : First of the apps are in. Hawaiian Air proposing Two daily year-round service effective Oct 31st. Flight #1 HA457 HNL-HND 1840-2200 HA458 HND-HNL 2345
81 Toobz : 2 dailies leaving 10mins apart?!
82 HAL : Yeah baby! This probably means ending the temporary routes that are starting this summer (OAK-OGG, SAN-OGG), but full time long-range flying means mo
83 Post contains links panamair : Delta's proposing HND - HNL / DTW / SEA / LAX: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Delta-...-to-prnews-291258584.html?x=0&.v=1 HND - SEA: A333 HND - HNL
84 Post contains images surfandsnow : Considering UA operates by far the strongest West Coast hub (with connections available to a myriad of other U.S. cities) I am almost certain that th
85 Post contains links kiwiandrew : CO also ( someone has started a new thread but it seemed to me that it belonged here ) http://www.continental.com/web/en-US...apps/vendors/default.asp
86 HAL : Although smaller than past years, Japan's tourism business into Hawaii is still big business. We don't need all that much connectivity to the mainlan
87 Post contains links STT757 : CO is applying for EWR-HND and GUM-HND; http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Contin...-and-prnews-95734843.html?x=0&.v=1
88 scorpy : Since DL is likely to get one slot pair, I wonder if this strategy of applying for all four will mean that they don't get their top preferences. If I
89 Post contains links surfandsnow : Did anyone get AA yet? JFK and LAX, but no ORD. Strange! http://aviationblog.dallasnews.com/a...merican-applies-to-fly-to-clo.html
90 LAXintl : I think carriers like HA and DL well understand they wont be awarded all the slots they applied for, but never the less put in for them. So far we hav
91 JohnClipper : Is CO looking to add EWR-HND to existing EWR-NRT service or replace it? What about IAH-NRT?
92 sxf24 : I can't imagine HA would sell connections. Both flights could easily exist on O&D alone.
93 DeltAirlines : The flight would be pretty much all O&D to Hawaii. That being said, I doubt the DOT will give HA both slots - I can see them getting one, but tha
94 LAXintl : United proposal details. SFO-HND 1905-2220 HND-SFO 0000-1720 Daily utilizing 269-seat B777-200ERs. UA states the service will offer connections to 27
95 C010T3 : Why is it that UA's application is the most reasonable so far? IMHO DL's team should be sent to an institution. That's not ambitious, bold or strategi
96 panamair : HA may have new entrant advantage but DL has the larger aircraft/capacity advantage. In bids for limited-entry markets such as HND, the amount of cap
97 surfandsnow : Yes, I think HA (HNL) and UA (SFO) are more or less a given. That leaves two slots up for grabs, between AA, CO, and DL. I doubt we will see US apply
98 LAXintl : And AA's. AA135 JFK-HND 1755-2205 overnight AA134 HND-JFK 0700-0520 and AA129 LAX-HND 1710-2200 AA128 HND-LAX 0015-1650 All flights utlizing 247 seat
99 LAXintl : Delta. DL59 SEA-HND 1810-2200 A333 DL58 HND-SEA 0000-1600 A333 DL627 DTW-HND 1820-2200 B744 overnight DL628 HND-DTW 0700-0500 B744 DL205 LAX-HND 1650-
100 incitatus : United's proposal is the most sound: They are proposing to lose money on a single service only. Delta's must have been printed on red ink.
101 DeltAirlines : Delta does have a stretch in HNL, but the rest isn't too short-sighted at all. Delta has moderate operations in Los Angeles and Seattle, with both ha
102 crosswinds21 : So I think that the thinking was pretty much that 4 airlines would apply and each airline would get one pair of slots to HND. We now have 5 applicatio
103 surfandsnow : Why do you think the HND routes will lose so much money? Time-crunched business travelers and Tokyo elite will love these new flights. If anything, t
104 Flyby519 : My money is on: UAL-SFO HA- HNL DAL- DTW AA- JFK Keeps things pretty spread out through the country, and each alliance gets a slot. Thoughts?
105 OA412 : Because there's absolutely no O/D from HNL, LAX, DTW, or SEA? Yup, DL just picked all of these cities at random so that they could fly a bunch of mon
106 C010T3 : DL's arguments are great, but that does not make the application reasonable. Actually, I really think that DL's team has gone insane and I quote: Did
107 OA412 : You did. DL is saying that they will accept a minimum of 3 weekly service if they are unable to obtain daily service.
108 C010T3 : Forget what I've written. DL apparently accepts a minimum of three weekly then, since they continue the responses referring to the quantity as 7 pair
109 HNL-Jack : Does Think you better check your source. If you're saying the traffic between HNL and Japan is not O&D, you're mistaken. It's almost all O&D w
110 C010T3 : Haha, it took me another minute to realize that, since DL is the only carrier that accepts less than daily flying, which per se already crazy enough.
111 9252fly : Maybe I can't read english,or DL is indicating it would accept a minimum of " 3 slot pairs ",emphasis on the word pairs. I assume a slot pair refers
112 LAXintl : And Continental / Continental Micronesia. CO149 EWR-HND 1800-2200 overnight CO148 HND-EWR 0655-0530 Utilizing 285-seat B772 CO965 GUM-HND 1950-2230 CO
113 C010T3 : I am going to quote AA's application (DOT-OST-2010-0018): Isn't that slightly ambiguous?[Edited 2010-02-16 16:09:41]
114 AlexInWa : Interesting that DL wants SEA-HND service, would this be in addition to SEA-NRT or take the place of it?
115 avek00 : No, and here's why I say this: USDOT has been VERY consistent in allocating route authorities in limited-entry markets to strong O&D markets, wit
116 LAXintl : So we have 11 route request for 4 slots. My take as to the winners. 1 - Hawaiian HNL as a new entrant 2 - United SFO 3 - Delta SEA, eventough I think
117 AA787 : I would assume that AA would cancel JFK-NRT should they get the authority for HND (and have JAL fly JFK-NRT). The real question is would CO's flight b
118 surfandsnow : Actually, DL is saying that it will accept authority for as little as 3x weekly service. In this case, they probably aim to get an authority for dail
119 AlexInWa : If DL ran SEA-NRT and SEA-HND, I would say bye bye UA in the SEA-NRT market.
120 C010T3 : Well, this time, however, the timing limitation will also have to be weighed in. That could bring an advantage to SEA.
121 C010T3 : AA is ambiguous by leaving a margin of interpretation if the minimum is one daily or one weekly pair of slots.
122 CALPSAFltSkeds : That can be flown with the HNL arrival now at 1930 and make up the HNL dpearture at 0640. That takes out what I assume is a maintenance overnight at
123 LAXintl : One problem -- Neither the DL nor AA flights are not the carriers primary choices. DOT will have to give consideration to each carriers first choices
124 C010T3 : AA will have the upper hand, because it's very probable that the DOT will award one daily pair to each alliance. HA will receive the fourth pair not
125 LAXintl : If you read the full filing it states D) Rank, in order of priority and preference, the U.S. points proposed for Haneda service for which the carrier
126 C010T3 : Yes, I know. That's exactly the excerpt that makes the first answer ambiguous. I may interpret it like you do, but that doesn't make it any less lega
127 OA412 : I was being sarcastic. I'm well aware that O/D is very substantial between HNL and Japan. I was also being sarcastic about there not being O/D betwee
128 LAXdude1023 : My guess is that: LAX-HND SFO-HND HNL-HND NYC-HND will be served since these are the largest markets to Japan of the ones listed.
129 doug_Or : I don't know, I think they would do more damage to themselves than UA. DL would need to keep the NRT flight for connectivity, and then find 250 MORE
130 ocracoke : If we are going to throw alliances into the picture, than AA could be double dipping (AA slots plus any JL slots), and UA/CO would be triple dipping
131 Flyby519 : That does make sense. I'm surprised DL didnt apply for JFK instead of DTW. Wouldnt that offer greater O&D and even more connect feed?
132 WorldTraveler : All of those who are convinced they know how the DOT will rule in this case might want to back off their personal desires and prejudices and look at D
133 Centrair : Something tells me that Japanese authorities will be crossing their fingers for a reduction at NRT to allow for new entrants and ones wanting more slo
134 Post contains links HALFA : Pretty exciting stuff for me, I've been all over Japan but never to Tokyo! I sure hope HA gets a slot! Is there a specific date at which time the slot
135 kiwiandrew : Is that really out of balance ? If the 20 slots for Japanese carriers are for the Japan-US market then it is out of balance . If the 20 slots are for
136 Centrair : And when will we hear from JL and NH? Are they going to wait a little longer? Are they going to go for whatever their partners DON'T get? EX AA gets
137 NetjetsINTL : count me in.....not sure about HNL, but definetly LAX, SFO and JFK-EWR
138 LAXdude1023 : The reason I mention HNL-HND is because its the largest market to Tokyo from the US (even if its not the highest yielding). I think because of that,
139 mariner : I'm with you. I know very little about the political issues involved, but, purely subjectively, I'd like to see Hawaiian get something here. I think
140 kiwiandrew : Apologies for going off topic ... but is there also a parallel process going on in Japan for allocation of rights for Japanese carriers ? I have tried
141 BigGSFO : Agreed. But perhaps the timing wasn't optimal given the operational restrictions? Who knows. I am actually surprised they opted for HNL over JFK. it
142 avek00 : Just a few thoughts: 1. I agree 100% that the DOT looks to capacity, and this factor alone may well tip a HNL award to DL over HA. 2. While the situa
143 LDVAviation : I would have to agree, with one reservation. The DOT will either favor a new entrant from HNL or the more viable carrier from HNL. It's really a toss
144 HeeseokKoo : Needless to say, 2 daily HND-USA ANA, 2 daily HND-USA JAL unless either of them say we don't need all of the slots. The airlines will use the slot to
145 WorldTraveler : The Washington airports don't have Open Skies at one airport but not at others... even if you are referring to the beyond perimeter slots, the mindse
146 BigGSFO : Not unless the DOT rules on ATI before they rule on Haneda. I don't think they take pending applications into consideration. There is no guarantee th
147 CO787EWR : I have a quick question, with CO's application are they switching EWR->NRT to HND or is this in addition to NRT.
148 coolfish1103 : ANA has also proposed to launch HND-TSA. TSA is Taipei Songshan Airport. JAL would be operating into TSA, the Taipei Songshan Airport, rather than TP
149 CODC10 : I don't see any reason why CO wouldn't be the favorite in the NYC area. They operate the largest, most comprehensive hub in the region at EWR, with t
150 MAH4546 : Interesting applications - a lot more competitive than I thought and I'm glad to see airlines show me wrong my applying to non-West Coast gateways wit
151 BigGSFO : The more I think I about, the more I agree HNL is a very long shot for the first go-around. It does not serve the best needs of the American public i
152 CODC10 : I also agree that HA probably should be the loser in this scenario. With four sets of slots, each of the main US-based carriers to Japan (DL, UA, AA,
153 Post contains images HALFA : After speaking with several people here in Hawaii today, I am now more convinced than ever that HA will get one of the slots. Why you ask? I'll tell y
154 LDVAviation : When the bilateral between Japan and the US was last revised, it allowed JAL to codeshare with AA and UA to codeshare with ANA. It also opened Narita
155 peanuts : Granted it's tough to gauge DOT and its inner workings... Most of my guesses hinge on whether DOT takes into consideration pending ATI/JV between UA/C
156 HNL-Jack : You've got that right and the lobbying for this authority has been going on for months. I would place my money on HA getting one daily slot.
157 avek00 : It isn't just a hope, it's how the DOT generally proceeded with allocating China rights - the carriers with applications for strong O&D routes ge
158 sxf24 : Did you read any of the decisions on China allocations? There's a big difference between a codeshare relationship and ATI. While I doubt that DOT wou
159 coolfish1103 : Well, since DTW is not Delta's first prefer operating route, I do not think the DOT can force them to move from SEA to DTW? I think a reason why Delta
160 CODC10 : What's the difference? EWR is closer to Lower Manhattan and about the same distance to Midtown, where the majority of the high-yield traffic would go
161 MasseyBrown : Without a lot of verbiage, my bet: CO - GUM HA - HNL AA - LAX AA or CO - NYC Based on DOT's history of favoring new entrants and smaller airlines, DL
162 klkla : I think the DOT should use AA's logic from the recent JL SkyTeam vs. Oneworld battle and ensure that all three alliances are able to compete at Haneda
163 incitatus : Can't HA serve HNL from NRT with Open Skies? If they can, they are a new entrant by choice.
164 LAXintl : I''m sorry but "one daily slot pair" means exactly that -- one daily slot = 7 slots in a week, 365 year. If the carrier only needed a single slot on
165 B747-4U3 : I believe, provided they can get slots, that they could serve NRT. That is one of the reasons why I can't see HA getting the HND slot. The idea of us
166 Cubsrule : How have politicians helped in past route cases?
167 Post contains images SATexan : I am going to take a slightly different prediction. HA - HNL UA - SFO AA - LAX DL - SEA CO is going to be left out simply because both of its proposal
168 Josh32121 : This makes more sense and underscores what I've been wondering while reading this thread: aren't we really talking about the award of 28 slots per we
169 CODC10 : A compelling argument? Sure. Based on your logic, an AA HND-JFK slot is also 'wasted', since I have seen no indication that AA plans to drop JFK-NRT
170 OA412 : Port Authority stats that have been posted on this site indicate that EWR captures only a very small proprotion (roughly 10%) of Manhattan originatin
171 CODC10 : There were a number of flaws with that survey that many posters uncovered, including the very small sample size. I understand your crusade, but there
172 CALMSP : it will be now..............all the guidos/guidettes & white boys/white girls will be buying up seats flying into the Jersey shore to show off th
173 Post contains images CODC10 : The bennies have always been here! Now, instead of Staten Island, we'll be getting them from California and Texas... Thanks MTV!
174 Post contains links and images OA412 : What crusade would that be pray tell? By the way, that wasn't a survey, that was pure statistical information gathered by the Port that clearly indic
175 SATexan : Agreed. Thats precisely why I picked AA's proposal from LAX and not from JFK..
176 McMax : So, when is DOT scheduled to release its tentative findings? I would imagine it would be pretty soon given the October 1, 2010 startup dates of HND se
177 kiwiandrew : There is a schedule in the original post - but not being able to speak government department gobbledygook I am not 100% sure what exactly it means -
178 Cubsrule : Decisions should come February 22.
179 Post contains images kiwiandrew : Thanks for that , do you have any idea what the 'replies' referred to in the final line are ?
180 luckyone : At 6 am it doesn't matter how far from the airport you are. That's not a huge traffic crunch (comparatively anyway)...
181 Cubsrule : Sorry - I was wrong (writing before thinking...). Answers are answers to the new applications; replies are from the new applicant carriers. Awards wi
182 HNL-Jack : The HNL - Tokyo connection, while on the surface appears to be all leisure is somewhat more complex. The business relationships between Japan and Hon
183 ADXMatt : In my opinion I think the HND schedule is a lot better for the business traveler. a 1800 departure from EWR give the business traveler a good chunk o
184 CODC10 : I wouldn't call a survey of 1578 respondents out of 35,000,000 passengers exhaustive. A few other notes on the EWR side: - 33% of the customers were
185 C010T3 : Let's not forget that there was an amendment to the procedural schedule: New Applications: February 16, 2010 Answers: March 1, 2010 Replies: March 8,
186 travelin man : Given the pending ATI for the Star and Oneworld partners, does it matter much if UA or AA is not awarded the slots? Say UA is shut out of SFO-HND this
187 OA412 : OK then, please provide us with the data that indicates that EWR is attracting a significant number of travellers from Manhattan as has been claimed
188 CODC10 : I think such data is a foregone conclusion and is difficult to accurately collect. The issue I (and others) have with it is that overwhelming empiric
189 coolfish1103 : I don't have to argue on whether JFK is a better airport than EWR is to Japan, based on the current flights that EWR and JFK has to NRT, the answer is
190 STT757 : CO has never suspended or dropped their NRT service from EWR since it's launch in 1998, DL added and dropped the route a couple times. UA left the ma
191 CODC10 : All the more reason to give CO EWR-HND authority to increase flights to an underserved market!
192 sxf24 : I'm confused. If there's overwhelming empirical evidence to support a foregone conclusion that EWR is attracting significant traffic from Manhattan,
193 Post contains links MasseyBrown : http://www.panynj.gov/airports/pdf-traffic/DEC2008_LGA.PDF This report for Dec 08 says: JFK had 3.8 million pax of whom 2.63 million were local and 1.
194 GlobalDude : CO carries a high percentage of people who are GOING to Manhattan (or leaving). Who cares if they live there or not. A filled airplane seat is a fille
195 CODC10 : Do we consider only passengers who live in Manhattan? What about passengers who reside elsewhere and whose primary place of business is Manhattan? Ho
196 CO787EWR : I have an question when you fly for business do you leave your office and go the airport or do you go straight to the airport from your house? If you
197 jfk777 : Back in 1990-91 AA aplied for LAX, San Jose and ORD to NRT and UA applied only for ORD to NRT. Well UA got its Tokyo route from Chicago and AA got SJ
198 coolfish1103 : I don't see why a temporary suspension is a big deal. Delta canceled flights to JFK back then, so what? It's American Airlines that is filing for JFK.
199 STT757 : You need to add Shangai to that list for EWR, and Singapore. Also EWR just lost flights to Kuala Lumpur, EWR in the past has also had Korean air and
200 Post contains links coolfish1103 : http://www.panynj.gov/airports/pdf-traffic/ATR2008.pdf Apparently Shanghai Pudong and Singapore is not high enough in passenger carried to be on the l
201 Cubsrule : Maybe it's no better, but is it worse? And is it enough worse to compensate for CO's massive hub there?
202 CODC10 : We might be unable to convince you, but you don't matter. It is the DOT that must be convinced of each carrier's respective proposal. Virtually all o
203 Post contains links klkla : There is an interesting article here: http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/stor...cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA To summarize: "But as far as g
204 LAXdude1023 : My only thing is that this leaves out the two largest O&D markets to Tokyo in the US (HNL and LAX). If anything, they should get a flight (I dont
205 C010T3 : My 2 cents are on: HA - HNL UA - SFO AA - JFK DL - LAX
206 CALMSP : "Continental cannot have Newark, because then Star gets two routes" good to know that this reporter is already claiming that ANA route planning is goi
207 crosswinds21 : I'm pretty sure he was referring to UA SFO-HND being one Star route and CO EWR-HND being the second one.
208 DFWEagle : I also think that is the most likely outcome of this case. HA gets in as a new entrant and one slot pair each for the three alliances (Star, SkyTeam
209 klkla : And no service to the midwest? I think DL - LAX is unlikely and DTW makes more sense.
210 CALMSP : he also seems to thinkt that the ATI has already been approved. I feel its a hard sell not to award CO the EWR-HND route. It offers more to the trave
211 coolfish1103 : Getting offensive there? Of course you do not need to convince me because I am not DOT. However, you are not convincing DOT either since you are on a
212 LAXdude1023 : LAX produces more traffic to Tokyo than the entire reigion. LAX is the 2nd largest market to Tokyo behind Honolulu in the US. And somehow Los Angeles
213 Cubsrule : I think that's right. The problem with LAX/SFO/JFK/HNL, though, is that a relatively large percentage of the country doesn't get one-stop access to H
214 aaway : While the specter of ATI and JVs looms for U.S.- Japan air services, I believe DOT will adhere to convention and assess each application on an individ
215 Post contains images CokePopper : Award will be: DL- SEA-HND DL- DTW-HND DL- LAX-HND DL- HNL-HND
216 LAXdude1023 : They wont be able to please everyone. I think LAX having HND nonstop service is more important than GRR, FNT, and TVC being able to have one-stop ser
217 kstateinALB : My guess would be that in the future, with CO now being in *A, that NH will consider service EWR at some point for the connections. And NH would be a
218 HNL-Jack : According to the US Department of Transportation, reporting the top 20 international city pairs in traffic (measured between US domestic cities and al
219 web500sjc : LAX I imagine will be served by at least JL and NH, if any US carrier serves LAX it will be DL but that aside, I keep going back and forth on wether t
220 incitatus : I finally had the time to read Delta's application and have several comments. Before I start, my perception of Delta's applications for limited freque
221 CODC10 : I didn't intend to sound quite so harsh, but if it motivated you to do the extra research, then I suppose everyone benefits! I of course do not mean
222 klkla : This is true but it's likely either NH or JL will serve this route (if not both). DTW provides many more connections and the midwest deserves a fligh
223 C010T3 : That's the problem, foreign carriers networks do not influence the DOT's awards, especially their future possibilities.
224 surfandsnow : Yes, I think the issue facing LAX and JFK is that the Japanese airlines will undoubtedly serve those airports from HND, with UA/AA codeshares to boot
225 AA787 : If CO were to lose out on EWR-HND service, I can see NRT moving JFK-NRT to EWR and then applying for JFK-HND. That way, they could still appeal to bus
226 OA412 : So clearly you're not even going to pretend to be unbiased by offering analysis of any of the other proposals. Maybe you will, but I'm not holding my
227 klkla : That's true unless one of the airlines decides to make it an issue in their response in which case the DOT would have to take it into consideration,
228 Cubsrule : No, but substituting EWR for JFK would not have a large impact on local passengers in any of the four gateways. You seemingly set up a choice between
229 LAXdude1023 : Hey, Im all good with CO getting EWR as opposed to AA getting JFK. It still serves the local market. I do think they will probably take alliances int
230 Cubsrule : Me too. That's why I think it's a hard choice, because the most consumer-friendly outcome in terms of airport pairs won't allocate frequencies equall
231 HALFA : Sorry if I missed it, but what happens tomorrow? Aloha, HALFA
232 C010T3 : Nothing. The amended procedural schedule hasn't apparently sunk in yet.[Edited 2010-02-21 13:12:48]
233 AlexInWa : I still haven't found out.................. Would SEA-HND replace SEA-NRT on DL or would the two run together?
234 LAXdude1023 : We are supposed to get answers tomorrow. Dont know if thats changed.
235 LAXintl : See reply 185.
236 HALFA : Thank you. Now can you or anyone please explain exactly what "answers" means? Will carriers be awarded the slots then? Aloha, HALFA
237 COSPN : CO's GUM-HND should be the first to get a slot... GUM has over 3 RT a day (on CO alone) JAL and NW have flights also... CO Micronesia is the only stil
238 Post contains links C010T3 : Take a look at some examples: Answer: http://www.regulations.gov/search/Re...#documentDetail?R=09000064808552f8 Reply: http://www.regulations.gov/sea
239 Post contains images HALFA : Thank you very much for these links, they were very helpful! Thanks again! Aloha, HALFA
240 Post contains links and images hjulicher : Here is the data from Dec 2008. Yes a little old, but does show important off-season travel trends. Sorry if it's hard to read. I had to get creative.
241 surfandsnow : Wow! I had no idea the proceedings had so many stages. Will be especially interesting to see how DL defends its application...
242 LAXdude1023 : I would love to see what they actually are, but I cant read that document to save my life. Is there another way you can present it perhaps?
243 Post contains links LAXintl : You can download it from the DOT yourself. Its the international air passenger and freight statistics report http://ostpxweb.dot.gov/aviation/interna
244 hjulicher : Isn't there a program for calculating the number of O/D passengers between city pairs on the web somewhere? Does it show international traffic as well
245 incitatus : The other applications have similar handicaps when it comes to benefiting from the other advantage of HND, domestic connections. However, no airline
246 web500sjc : I hunk with the exception of ATL, MSP, or DTW delt should discontinue the route to NRT form the Origin piont. delta should start moving away from NRT
247 carpethead : I can't believe I spent the last few minutes reading most of these posts. Here's some observations: There's a reason why no int'l flights leave from t
248 Cubsrule : The question, though, is whether that fact will stop carriers from applying (apparently not) and, if so, whether it'll stop DoT from granting non-wes
249 WorldTraveler : Note that it is possible that the slot times at HND could change in the future; therefore, it isn't a given that carriers will be locked into the curr
250 DFWEagle : Agree with the first part of this, but let’s remember that these slots are just the first round of a phased plan to increase services at Haneda. Al
251 Centrair : In addition to Carpethead: Many are talking about the feed on either end. Sadly there aren't any or evn a few domestic connections at HND after 22:00.
252 web500sjc : how about flying a plane in between NRT and HND empty for the service,have a palne fly in to NRT and then unload and fly to HND to get an early dpeart
253 coolfish1103 : I think the restriction is still there, so the departure and arrival time would have to be within the time slot (2200 - 0700) even if you ferry a plan
254 cslusarc : I have read the 250+ posts in this thread and I have throughly reviewed the DOT applications. Several posters have determined that the DOT will pick t
255 HNL-Jack : I think it is also possible that HNL could get two of the initial slots, one going to DL and the other to HA. The DL award would relieve DL of having
256 commavia : The transpacific joint ventures are not a done-deal yet, and won't be for months. In the interim, AA - for example - is still operating to Tokyo as a
257 WorldTraveler : but first mover advantage is critical, esp. for the Star and oneworld alliances. Without a good turnount at HND over the Pacific, they have basically
258 globaldude : How many slot pairs do all of the applying airlines have at NRT? (except HA).
259 carpethead : Folks have to remember Haneda will be first and foremost be largely for domestic flights. Next to importance will be regional international flights. T
260 CO787EWR : CO has two daily flights one from EWR and the other from IAH. I dont have know how many slots that works out to be... 14 weekly slot pairs I believe W
261 MasseyBrown : Plus three dailies NRT-GUM
262 surfandsnow : I thought Japan said no more slots at NRT for U.S. carriers - U.S. airlines allegedly have too great a share of the total slot pool as it is, right?
263 aaway : +1. Essentially my predicition is based that DOT will disperse the awards geographically since the initial opportunity for access is constrained. Max
264 DFWEagle : They said there would be no more slots for US carriers in this allocation round (2010). However, as carpethead said, NRT is examining the possibility
265 WorldTraveler : it is quite doubtful that US carriers will use all of the slot growth that is available to them at NRT; with ATI/JV and the opening of HND, there just
266 jfk777 : 1. 7 slots for United from SFO 2. 7 slots for AA from JFK or LAX 3. 7 slots for Continental from Newark. 4. 7 slots for Delta from DTW. SEA doesn't n
267 jpetekYXMD80 : Not sure where you're getting that. Hawaiians 763's offer just about the same capacity as the other airlines' 777, and the A332 will offer more seat
268 Post contains links ATTart : Here is an article on United's reasoning on why they should have one of the Haneda slots.
269 crosswinds21 : I'm just wondering if the answers are still due to be released today and if so, if there's any status or update on this.
270 centrair : I think you forgot the link.
271 C010T3 : Delta's filings are always highly amusing. I am having a blast here reading Delta's answer. I'm only done with page 4, but I've found the most funny f
272 CO787EWR : Where can you find the filings for all the airlines?
273 luckyone : In other words, we want Seattle, but we'll take Honolulu.
274 Post contains links United1 : http://www.regulations.gov/search/Re...l#docketDetail?R=DOT-OST-2010-0018
275 centrair : highly amusing. Basically they are saying "we want it but, it's okay if we don't get chosen. If HA can't handle it, leave it to us." I know DL merged
276 CO787EWR : Thank you, the DOT's search engine is archaic.
277 C010T3 : No, in other words, we don't want HNL at all, we just don't want Star Alliance or Oneworld to get any slots.
278 PHXtoDCAtoMSP : Where are you finding this? regulations.gov does not seem to have them up yet.[Edited 2010-03-01 15:08:47]
279 STT757 : As per CO's application, EWR-HND would "complement" their EWR-NRT flights.
280 C010T3 : It's on airlineinfo.com. You'll only find it on regulations.gov tomorrow.
281 mah4546 : There is just no love for Delta at all from AA, CO, HA and UA. Continental and United flat out says Delta should not receive any Haneda slots, while a
282 CO787EWR : Does CO have enough 777's to make this work? Also are they going to do what they did with London say they'll serve LGW and LHR at the same time and t
283 STT757 : Two more to enter the fleet in the 2nd Qtr. of 2010, so to answer your question yes.
284 CO787EWR : Sorry to be a pest but I thought their were some 777's that were slated to serve PVG, I assume those have already been delivered and these aren't the
285 LAXdude1023 : Honolulu is the biggest market to Japan from any US city. In my opinion, HA or DL should be allowed to fly HND-HNL.
286 STT757 : CO's been flying to PVG for a year now, so obviously they didn't need them to launch the route.
287 mah4546 : And how much of that traffic is U.S.-originating? The DOT needs to look out for the interest of the general U.S. public, not Japanese tourists. And t
288 C010T3 : Hawaiian exploited DL's ambiguity beautifully in its answer (p. 24): Moreover, Delta stated in its application that it will accept an award of 3 slot
289 PHXtoDCAtoMSP : United chastises DL for putting an A333 on SEA-HND as opposed to a 744, claiming that it speaks volumes to the "limited public benefits of its SEA-HND
290 Commavia : I don't know whether or not Delta was trying to derail Open Skies. This has, indeed, been near-universally alluded to by Delta's competitors, and I d
291 mah4546 : No, because I am very confident that CO will get EWR, and DOT will not give two New York routes. I believe AA itself is internally aware that it is m
292 PHXtoDCAtoMSP : Wow! The United application was such an entertaining read! 1) Alluded to above.....UA says that SEA is a poor choice because DL chose the A333 instead
293 Commavia : Fair point - highly doubtful DoT will award two New York-area routes. Interesting. Very true. One way or the other, the AA-JAL alliance will be servi
294 klkla : Are competitors supposed to show love? Obviosuly not. Delta has come from way behind to pass UA and AA as the number one airline in the U.S. (actuall
295 mah4546 : No, they are not, but in years of following route proceedings very closely, I have never seen carriers unite in universal and agreed opposition again
296 LAXdude1023 : No airline will get two awards this go-round. Of that I am very certain.
297 Post contains images mah4546 : And after reading the remarks of all the carriers, I'm more convinced than before that Delta will be the one carrier left with nothing, not Hawaiian.
298 klkla : Which non-emotional relevant argument in particular would lead to this conclusion? Delta's argument about Star and oneworld having absolute dominance
299 United1 : As DL has an alliance with Korean Air (an airline that flies to HND) shouldn't that statement also disqualify them?
300 klkla : No, because Star and oneworld already provide 90% of the seats to this airport. Also, Korean does not fly from the U.S. non-stop to HND.
301 PHXtoDCAtoMSP : After reading everything I am pretty certain that DL will get 2 awards. If UA/CO/NH and AA/JL had not already applied for ATI/JVs, then I would say th
302 mah4546 : Delta's dominance of U.S.-Narita flights today combined with DOT's irrational favoring of new entry carriers with near universality. Despite the fact
303 United1 : No airline flies non-stop between the US and HND currently...also there is no stated threshold in DLs argument only that they be part of the same all
304 mah4546 : They do matter, but DOT is not permitted to assume that the ATIs will be granted. DOT can look at the current codeshare circumstances - and indeed th
305 Post contains images United1 : If the DOT does decide to divvy out these slots based upon proposed ATI/JV agreements they are almost locking themselves into approving those JV/ATI
306 LDVAviation : There is nothing compelling about it. That section of the US Code pertains to "making slots available for Essential Air Services." Good one Delta, bu
307 LDVAviation : There is no precedent. Delta's argument that there is a precedent is specious. See my post above. The section Delta referenced DID NOT pertain to slo
308 PHXtoDCAtoMSP : Direct Quote: "Japan has indicated that it will not sign the open skies agreement until a favorable outcome is reached in the pending ATI cases.1" 1
309 mah4546 : Yes, and...? That doesn't change how DOT moves forward with its own proceedings. DOT very well realizes that Japan will not move forward with this ps
310 PHXtoDCAtoMSP : The quote in the first sentence you are correct about. But read Delta's next sentence. It might not have been allocations from the DOT, but it did pe
311 HNL-Jack : First of all, HND is not a gold mine and in fact would have little effect on DL, UA, CO* or AA if they don't get the award. HND does not and will not
312 LAXdude1023 : Absolutely. I think based on this it would be a shame if HNL went away with no service to HND. As you point out, HND is going to be a mostly O&D
313 mah4546 : I wouldn't say "whatever airline" doesn't matter. If we want to look at the main contending markets - LAX and NYC - it certainly matters to the gener
314 MasseyBrown : It used to be quite good until it was merged into regulations.gov, which does call up data fast if you know what you are looking for. Now browsing is
315 aaway : What's the old saying - if you never had it, it wasn't a loss? I disagree with the 'gold mine' contention. Initially, HND will likely be a gold mine
316 mah4546 : That will simply not happen. Just like one carrier won't get two routes, one market won't get two carriers. And the traffic would support both AA/DL
317 peanuts : LOL Wow! Over 300 replies to this thread and nobody really knows with certainty what the "mysterious" DOT will do, eventually. I would have to say it
318 hjulicher : I find this quote preposterous as the DOT is a governmental institution paid by American taxpayers to effectively evaluate all proposals by any US Ta
319 Post contains links HALFA : HA's proposed Haneda route will not only connect Honolulu with Tokyo , but ill also provide convenient one stop service from PDX, SEA, SAN and LAS, a
320 rwSEA : Um, I guess so, if you consider thousands of miles out of the way to be "convenient".
321 Transpac787 : It's no different than any other airline's application for the routes. My personal favorite was the US PHL-PEK application, citing LAX, LAS, and PHX
322 HALFA : Where do you get "thousands" of miles out of the way from? If you are travelling from SMF to HND, you could connect in LAX and the total distance SMF
323 LDVAviation : I was being facetious. But, if you want to make a "federal" case of what I said, let me say this. From what others have quoted here and from what I h
324 ocracoke : Then AA/JL would have 3 HND routes, and potentially, DL none. Starting to look like LHR east. Good for the consumer? I remember it being said during
325 avek00 : Despite the hoopla and heated passions, I stand by my earlier words, continue to believe the final outcome will reflect the sentiment contained within
326 mah4546 : If you want to consider connecting in Honolulu between Japan and the mainland "convenient," then be my guest. It's not 1975 anymore. Which is true, b
327 HALFA : Ok, so convenient was probably a poor choice of words but the reality is that nothing from the US to HND is convenient with the exception of nonstop
328 Post contains images Commavia : While I agree that Hawaiian is quite likely to get a slot pair - not the two, spaced 10 mins apart, as they are proposing, but at least one - I do di
329 avek00 : There's nothing unfortunate about this - it's market forces at work. One of New Delta's weaknesses is that its longhaul network is far more dependent
330 HALFA : Which is why I was careful to list only these 4 cities as a "convenient" one stop connection, as referenced below. According to HA's application, the
331 Cubsrule : I'll have a try for AA, assuming an 1810 departure from LAX and 11:50 travel time. OAK: No service SFO: 15:50 LAX: 11:50 (obviously, not a fair compa
332 HNL-Jack : The discussion regarding connection traffic is interesting and I have no doubt that if HA is awarded a slot, there will be some connecting traffic out
333 aaway : Just a tally of the award predictions made thus far: AA - JFK / 5 votes AA - LAX / 8 votes CO - EWR / 9 votes CO - GUM / 2 votes DL - DTW / 9 votes DL
334 McMax : After reading all of the responses from (and skimming through the exhibits) AA, DL, UA and CO (I got tired of reading after four of them, so I didn't
335 mah4546 : AA officially considers JFK a hub; and LAX - AA's fourth largest station - is a hub in all but name.
336 MasseyBrown : I've been reading DOT and CAB applications for over 30 years. They have *always* gone after each other like this. They're lawyers; that's what lawyer
337 rwSEA : With these travel times (including connections) no one in their right mind would choose a HA connecting service over a flight through SFO/LAX/SEA, no
338 HALFA : Comparing service from SEA to NRT/HND is not a fair comparison, which is why I said this in reply 330: But it would be fare to compare connection and
339 Cubsrule : Let's have a look at UA. I'll assume a 1900 departure and 11:00 flight. SFO: 11:00 OAK: I'd argue that this, too, is 11:00 since SFO and OAK are cote
340 HAL : The authority given to HA was OGG to NRT. The runway at OGG is too short to support a flight to Japan so it was never used. It was given at the time
341 centrair : Though I understand the debate about HA's application, I think HAL hot it right. It is not about transit but O&D. The entire HND bank is going to
342 Post contains images OA412 : I've only read UA's reply so far, but all I see is that they mentioned that DL opposed Open Skies without really indicating how they opposed it. As I
343 kiwiandrew : Apologies as I am sure that this information is buried somewhere in this thread ( and no doubt I have gone right past it 3 times in the last couple of
344 mah4546 : And who's behalf would he otherwise be doing it on? Albeit, United Airlines was not. Then again, UA has a partner in Japan, so open skies will strong
345 klkla : Actually this argument works against you. Delta is offering the largest aircraft carrying the most passengers to both LAX and HNL and using your logi
346 mah4546 : No, the argument does not work against me because the DOT will strongly consider the airlines position in the local market, including past failures a
347 klkla : No it won't. You have no facts to back up that statement. And even if you did that argument can be used against any airline that has ever asked for a
348 mah4546 : There is no backpedaling, just you trying to pick a fight, as usual. I am far more verse in how DOT typically handles these matters than you ever wil
349 Evan767 : So when the hell are we going to find out who gets what?
350 PHXtoDCAtoMSP : The "Replies" are due on Monday. Those will basically be the airlines defending themselves against the attacks the other airlines had on them in the "
351 OA412 : Or, to add some balance, the fact that DL commands a higher average fare and generates more revenue on LAX-NRT than does AA.
352 Post contains images kiwiandrew : In that case it would be in the consumers interest to award the route to someone else with a lower average fare and save everyone some money , wouldn
353 Post contains images OA412 : Hey now, don't be ruining my argument.
354 Post contains links LipeGIG : As this thread become too long, please continue with the discussion on Part II , link below: The Game Begins-2010 U.S.-HND Allocation Part II (by Lipe
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