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Could OneWorld Lose LAN?  
User currently offlineSeatback From United States of America, joined Mar 2002, 739 posts, RR: 0
Posted (4 years 2 months 2 weeks 4 days 8 hours ago) and read 8069 times:

With TAM expected to acquire a minority stake in LAN, and their membership in Star forthcoming, wouldn't it make sense for LAN to join Star?

How devistating would this be for OW given AA's significant presence in Latin America?

41 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineMAH4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 32214 posts, RR: 72
Reply 1, posted (4 years 2 months 2 weeks 4 days 8 hours ago) and read 8060 times:

Quoting Seatback (Thread starter):
With TAM expected to acquire a minority stake in LAN, and their membership in Star forthcoming, wouldn't it make sense for LAN to join Star?

No, it would not. In fact, given that oneWorld is such a strong force in Latin America, it would make perfect sense for TAM to join oneWorld and make that power even stronger.

Quoting Seatback (Thread starter):
How devistating would this be for OW given AA's significant presence in Latin America?

Given AA's significant presence in Latin America, not very devastating.



a.
User currently offlineAAExecPlat From United States of America, joined Sep 2009, 633 posts, RR: 4
Reply 2, posted (4 years 2 months 2 weeks 4 days 8 hours ago) and read 8052 times:

Yes. They could lose LAN and CX to Star, and BA and AA are going bankrupt soon, too. AA will go chapter 11 and BA will liquidate. Virgin will buy BA's assets and join Skyteam. Then they'll join the DL/AF/KL TATL ATI. Star and Skyteam will fight for Qantas while IBERIA will join Skyteam as part of the Virgin/BA buyout.

Oneworld will be dismantled and Sky and Star will rule the alliance world.


User currently offlineevomutant From United Kingdom, joined May 2006, 452 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (4 years 2 months 2 weeks 4 days 8 hours ago) and read 8029 times:

Quoting Seatback (Thread starter):

How devistating would this be for OW given AA's significant presence in Latin America?

That's the point. AA fly most places of any importance in South America themselves. A very different situation to JAL, who they really did rely on to distribute pax in Asia.


User currently offlinehardiwv From Brazil, joined Oct 2004, 8780 posts, RR: 50
Reply 4, posted (4 years 2 months 2 weeks 4 days 7 hours ago) and read 7955 times:

Yes, with TAM getting 1/4 of LAN, I think in future TAM could get a majority control of LAN and lead the airline to abandon OW and join Star Alliance.

Rgs,


User currently offlineCubsrule From United States of America, joined May 2004, 22320 posts, RR: 20
Reply 5, posted (4 years 2 months 2 weeks 4 days 7 hours ago) and read 7889 times:

Quoting hardiwv (Reply 4):
Yes, with TAM getting 1/4 of LAN, I think in future TAM could get a majority control of LAN and lead the airline to abandon OW and join Star Alliance.

But why? Oneworld has, in AA, a North American carrier that is stronger in South America than any Star member. Oneworld has, in IB, a European carrier that is stronger in South America than any Star member. Why would JJ/LA be better off in Star?



I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
User currently offlineSCL767 From Chile, joined Feb 2006, 8616 posts, RR: 5
Reply 6, posted (4 years 2 months 2 weeks 4 days 7 hours ago) and read 7891 times:
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Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 1):
Quoting Seatback (Thread starter):
With TAM expected to acquire a minority stake in LAN, and their membership in Star forthcoming, wouldn't it make sense for LAN to join Star?

No, it would not. In fact, given that oneWorld is such a strong force in Latin America, it would make perfect sense for TAM to join oneWorld and make that power even stronger.

Quite accurate and I do not foresee LAN leaving oneworld anytime soon. LAN's focus city at AA's MIA hub is very important for the company. LAN code-shares with AA on many of its domestic routes at MIA and JFK. Also, LAN's presence at MAD is quite impressive and LAN also code-shares with IB on many routes. LAN and oneworld go hand-in-hand IMO!


User currently offlineAmerican 767 From United States of America, joined May 1999, 3653 posts, RR: 13
Reply 7, posted (4 years 2 months 2 weeks 4 days 7 hours ago) and read 7689 times:

Quoting AAExecPlat (Reply 2):
Yes. They could lose LAN and CX to Star, and BA and AA are going bankrupt soon, too. AA will go chapter 11 and BA will liquidate. Virgin will buy BA's assets and join Skyteam. Then they'll join the DL/AF/KL TATL ATI. Star and Skyteam will fight for Qantas while IBERIA will join Skyteam as part of the Virgin/BA buyout.

Oneworld will be dismantled and Sky and Star will rule the alliance world.

AAExec Plat, you are too negative. In this forum, everyone has the right to express is or her opinion, likes or dislikes, everyone likes airlines and dislikes other airlines or aircraft types. But in your post, you are attacking One World.
Stop talking bad about One World, please. It's a good alliance. Obviously you fly AA as far as your user name says, and you are only talking negative about One World! It's like punching someone innocent who didn't do anything to you.

AA, BA and IB have, if not yet they will eventually in the future, ATI agreement. There is no way AA, BA and IB will ever split up, so One World will never be dismantled even if all other members end up leaving. What's the worst that could happen? One World will be left with AA, BA and IB, oh well I'm not even sure CX and QF would ever leave because they were founding members of the alliance back in the late 90's. True, Canadian left because they were swallowed into Air Canada, but CX and QF are strong enough to defend themselves.
If the world ends up with only two major alliances, the one that would compete against Star would be a merger with One World and Sky Team, and I'm not even sure that will happen.
Aer Lingus left, JAL is considering leaving, but that still leaves 10 members in One World, not including S7 who is likely to join.

AAExec Plat, I don't mean to attack you, I respect other members and if I disagree with someone then I explain why, you have the right to express your own thoughts, but please don't be so negative.

Thank you for listening.

Ben Soriano



Ben Soriano
User currently offlineAAExecPlat From United States of America, joined Sep 2009, 633 posts, RR: 4
Reply 8, posted (4 years 2 months 2 weeks 4 days 7 hours ago) and read 7683 times:

Quoting American 767 (Reply 7):
AAExec Plat, you are too negative. In this forum, everyone has the right to express is or her opinion, likes or dislikes, everyone likes airlines and dislikes other airlines or aircraft types. But in your post, you are attacking One World.
Stop talking bad about One World, please. It's a good alliance. Obviously you fly AA as far as your user name says, and you are only talking negative about One World! It's like punching someone innocent who didn't do anything to you.

AA, BA and IB have, if not yet they will eventually in the future, ATI agreement. There is no way AA, BA and IB will ever split up, so One World will never be dismantled even if all other members end up leaving. What's the worst that could happen? One World will be left with AA, BA and IB, oh well I'm not even sure CX and QF would ever leave because they were founding members of the alliance back in the late 90's. True, Canadian left because they were swallowed into Air Canada, but CX and QF are strong enough to defend themselves.
If the world ends up with only two major alliances, the one that would compete against Star would be a merger with One World and Sky Team, and I'm not even sure that will happen.
Aer Lingus left, JAL is considering leaving, but that still leaves 10 members in One World, not including S7 who is likely to join.

AAExec Plat, I don't mean to attack you, I respect other members and if I disagree with someone then I explain why, you have the right to express your own thoughts, but please don't be so negative.

Thank you for listening.

Ben Soriano

I thought I was being "tonge in cheek" enough, but sometimes, not having smileys on this site is an issue. Of course, I wsa making fun of the OP. I don't think LAN will defect, nor do I think any of the stuff I wrote. It was an attempt at comedy.


User currently offlineMAH4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 32214 posts, RR: 72
Reply 9, posted (4 years 2 months 2 weeks 4 days 7 hours ago) and read 7667 times:

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 5):
Why would JJ/LA be better off in Star?

They wouldn't be given that placing them in oneWorld would further strengthen the alliance in Latin America - LAN, Iberia, Mexicana, TAM and American? That's the perfect combination.

Quoting American 767 (Reply 7):

AAExec Plat, you are too negative. In this forum, everyone has the right to express is or her opinion, likes or dislikes, everyone likes airlines and dislikes other airlines or aircraft types. But in your post, you are attacking One World.
Stop talking bad about One World, please. It's a good alliance. Obviously you fly AA as far as your user name says, and you are only talking negative about One World! It's like punching someone innocent who didn't do anything to you.

I'm pretty sure he was being sarcastic.

Quoting SCL767 (Reply 6):

Quite accurate and I do not foresee LAN leaving oneworld anytime soon. LAN's focus city at AA's MIA hub is very important for the company. LAN code-shares with AA on many of its domestic routes at MIA and JFK. Also, LAN's presence at MAD is quite impressive and LAN also code-shares with IB on many routes. LAN and oneworld go hand-in-hand IMO!

  



a.
User currently offlineSeatback From United States of America, joined Mar 2002, 739 posts, RR: 0
Reply 10, posted (4 years 2 months 2 weeks 4 days 6 hours ago) and read 7546 times:

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 1):
it would make perfect sense for TAM to join oneWorld and make that power even stronger.

But hasn't TAM already decided on *A?


User currently offlineveeseeten From United Kingdom, joined Nov 2008, 169 posts, RR: 0
Reply 11, posted (4 years 2 months 2 weeks 4 days 6 hours ago) and read 7514 times:

Quoting AAExecPlat (Reply 8):
I thought I was being "tonge in cheek" enough, but sometimes, not having smileys on this site is an issue. Of course, I wsa making fun of the OP. I don't think LAN will defect, nor do I think any of the stuff I wrote. It was an attempt at comedy.

Made me laugh! And in any case, quite an accurate snapshot of the prevailing 'doom and gloom' assumptions that accompany all speculation on here. Not every event needs to be a seismic shift!


User currently offlinePPVRA From Brazil, joined Nov 2004, 8876 posts, RR: 40
Reply 12, posted (4 years 2 months 2 weeks 4 days 6 hours ago) and read 7439 times:

Imagine if they joined SkyTeam, along with JAL. . . what a boost to that alliance.


"If goods do not cross borders, soldiers will" - Frederic Bastiat
User currently offlineMAH4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 32214 posts, RR: 72
Reply 13, posted (4 years 2 months 2 weeks 4 days 6 hours ago) and read 7438 times:

Quoting Seatback (Reply 10):
Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 1):
it would make perfect sense for TAM to join oneWorld and make that power even stronger.

But hasn't TAM already decided on *A?

So? Alliances are not set in forever stone.

Personally, I don't think this will have any effect on alliances. TAM will stay with Star, LAN will stay with oneWorld and the two can increase intra-South American cooperation blind to alliances.



a.
User currently offlineaaway From United States of America, joined Oct 2003, 1507 posts, RR: 14
Reply 14, posted (4 years 2 months 2 weeks 4 days 6 hours ago) and read 7375 times:

Quoting Seatback (Thread starter):
With TAM expected to acquire a minority stake in LAN...

Well not so fast....
http://news.airwise.com/story/view/1265399962.html

February 5, 2010
Chile's President-elect Sebastian Pinera approved Friday the sale of his majority stake in flagship airline LAN, worth an estimated USD$1.5 billion.

snip

The Cueto family, which has the first option to purchase the stake, separately approved a USD$1 billion capital increase aimed at buying into Pinera's LAN stake, and now has 20 days to decide how much of it they will buy.

snip

Brazil's largest airline, TAM, last week declined comment on a media report that it was in talks to buy into Pinera's stake in LAN. TAM has an operational partnership with LAN via codeshare and helps maintain the company's aircraft.

"TAM was the favorite, but we talked to them and they said no," said an analyst close to the negotiations.



With a choice between changing one's mind & proving there's no need to do so, most everyone gets busy on the proof.
User currently offlineOP3000 From United States of America, joined Jun 2009, 1678 posts, RR: 2
Reply 15, posted (4 years 2 months 2 weeks 4 days 6 hours ago) and read 7369 times:

Quoting aaway (Reply 14):
"TAM was the favorite, but we talked to them and they said no," said an analyst close to the negotiations.

Along the same lines:

http://in.reuters.com/article/govern...tFilingsNews/idINN0511582720100205

The family could partner with foreign financial groups or another regional carrier to buy the remaining shares if they buy part of the stake with the capital increase. In the deal they would likely have a controlling majority. Some analysts say Brazil's top airline TAM Linhas Aereas TAMM4.SN(TAM.N: Quote, Profile, Research), which was considered a favorite to buy Pinera's stake, is in no financial position to buy a major LAN stake.


User currently offlineSKY1 From Spain, joined Apr 2006, 879 posts, RR: 4
Reply 16, posted (4 years 2 months 2 weeks 4 days 5 hours ago) and read 7228 times:

Quoting veeseeten (Reply 11):
Made me laugh!

Yes, It was funny to me as well!

Quoting veeseeten (Reply 11):
And in any case, quite an accurate snapshot of the prevailing 'doom and gloom' assumptions that accompany all speculation on here

Too much speculation rather hasty, cheap and many times even not accurate.

Quoting PPVRA (Reply 12):
Imagine if they joined SkyTeam, along with JAL


Imagine they remain oneworld and Star split in 2 different parts ...let's go to imagine what could happen according to our own wishes Could be it serious?
Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 13):
I don't think this will have any effect on alliances.

This time I'm agree 100% with you, Mark.

[Edited 2010-02-05 17:04:40]


Time flies! Enjoy life!
User currently offlineVC10er From United States of America, joined Feb 2007, 2793 posts, RR: 10
Reply 17, posted (4 years 2 months 2 weeks 4 days 4 hours ago) and read 7123 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

I say kill all of the worlds airline brands and form 3 Airlines "Star Airlines" HQ in Frankfurt, Sky Airlines HQ in the old Pan Am building and "Air One Airlines" HQ in Hong Kong. Align fleet types and all would have the same routes throughout the world making service and price the 2 most important competitive factors.
3 fabulous new liveries selected by tenured members of Airlliners.net. Each airline must buy new fleets of B747-8, A380, B787 and A350's. Since there would be no airline based in LATAM all RJ,s would be Embraer's, so long as production sites were spread around LATAM and them merge them with Canadair. Fair!



The world is missing love, let's use our flights to spread it!
User currently offlineLoneStarMike From United States of America, joined Jul 2000, 3785 posts, RR: 34
Reply 18, posted (4 years 2 months 2 weeks 4 days 2 hours ago) and read 6874 times:

Quoting AAExecPlat (Reply 8):
I thought I was being "tonge in cheek" enough

Oh...I thought you were being "tongue" in cheek.

Quoting AAExecPlat (Reply 8):
but sometimes, not having smileys on this site is an issue.

Oh my God!    When did airliners.net get rid of all the smileys?    

LoneStarMike (just being tongue in cheek)   


User currently offlineskyone From Mexico, joined Feb 2001, 416 posts, RR: 0
Reply 19, posted (4 years 2 months 2 weeks 4 days 2 hours ago) and read 6680 times:

Well, I think Latam is perfectly covered by One World Airlines. Mexicana helps a lot in covering intra Mexico and Lan does the intra South America portion. But I think that One World should make a big airline from China join the alliance, as the other two already have presence in that country. I don´t think LAN will leave One World, beacause as some others mentioned it here, MIA, JFK and MAD represent a great point to conect passengers into different cities in the US and Europe.

All in all, maintaining JL in the alliance is a most for One World, if they want to keep themselves in good shape against Star and Skyteam.


User currently offlineAmerican 767 From United States of America, joined May 1999, 3653 posts, RR: 13
Reply 20, posted (4 years 2 months 2 weeks 4 days 1 hour ago) and read 6455 times:

Quoting skyone (Reply 19):
One World should make a big airline from China join the alliance

Cathay Pacific is in already. Yes it is the airline of Hong Kong, but Hong Kong is now officially part of China, since 1997.
When One World was founded with CX being one of the founding members, Hong Kong was already officially a Chinese territory.

Ben Soriano



Ben Soriano
User currently offlineCrosscheck007 From Poland, joined Jan 2010, 278 posts, RR: 2
Reply 21, posted (4 years 2 months 2 weeks 4 days 1 hour ago) and read 6292 times:

Quoting AAExecPlat (Reply 8):
I thought I was being "tonge in cheek" enough, but sometimes, not having smileys on this site is an issue. Of course, I wsa making fun of the OP. I don't think LAN will defect, nor do I think any of the stuff I wrote. It was an attempt at comedy.

Hahaha, I got it. I thought it was funny!  


Really, any airline could go to any alliance. Things change. Financial health changes. Route structure changes. Goals change. With all of this, it is inevitable that alliances will also change. Speaking of which, it has been a while since an alliance was created...isn't it time to get a new one to challenge Star, One, and Sky?

Cheers,

007



Je l'attends pas un homme. J'apporte le parti, j'apporte le feu d'artifice.
User currently offlineskyone From Mexico, joined Feb 2001, 416 posts, RR: 0
Reply 22, posted (4 years 2 months 2 weeks 4 days ago) and read 6238 times:

Quoting Crosscheck007 (Reply 21):
Speaking of which, it has been a while since an alliance was created...isn't it time to get a new one to challenge Star, One, and Sky?

Well said. And I think EK should be the first member of the 4th Alliance.  


User currently offlineCrosscheck007 From Poland, joined Jan 2010, 278 posts, RR: 2
Reply 23, posted (4 years 2 months 2 weeks 4 days ago) and read 6220 times:

Quoting skyone (Reply 22):

That alliance would be a tough competitor!! A lot of people talk about an EK/VS/[insert "premier" airline] alliance, but I think alliances need all levels of service, not just premium. Airlines like EK would be great premier anchors, while other airlines would fall into their respective service tiers (of course maintaining a certain minimum standard).

I wonder if EK will ever join the game, or just be a Middle Eastern Alaska Airlines?  

Cheers,

007



Je l'attends pas un homme. J'apporte le parti, j'apporte le feu d'artifice.
User currently offlineJacobin777 From United States of America, joined Sep 2004, 14968 posts, RR: 60
Reply 24, posted (4 years 2 months 2 weeks 4 days ago) and read 6215 times:

Quoting AAExecPlat (Reply 2):
Yes. They could lose LAN and CX to Star, and BA and AA are going bankrupt soon, too. AA will go chapter 11 and BA will liquidate. Virgin will buy BA's assets and join Skyteam. Then they'll join the DL/AF/KL TATL ATI. Star and Skyteam will fight for Qantas while IBERIA will join Skyteam as part of the Virgin/BA buyout.

Oneworld will be dismantled and Sky and Star will rule the alliance world.

  



"Up the Irons!"
25 LipeGIG : In fact TAM will join Star because AA was never a good partner for them. AA lost the chance to lead TAM into OW and now i can't doubt TAM would join O
26 Conti764 : Wasn't that the case with SN too, albeit on a smaller level than with JAL? Anyway, I don't think Oneworld will dissapear, but it could turn out to be
27 KL911 : That would be a dream come true, but can't see it happening anytime soon. Aren't they an associate member already?
28 chinaeastern : recently, read so much about airlines swaping alliances, but who doesn't want a piece of Qantas?
29 Post contains images AAExecPlat : Doh...I never saw the add smilies link above the text box.   
30 NZ6 : At a high business level point of view would they not just leave one in One World and one in Star Alliance? Have a piece of both pies. Just because on
31 AirCanada014 : Quote " No, it would not. In fact, given that oneWorld is such a strong force in Latin America, it would make perfect sense for TAM to join oneWorld a
32 Cubsrule : ...but still smaller than AA's, not to mention that YYZ is not a competitive connecting point for many US-South America itineraries.
33 AirCanada014 : yes AA has huge presence in SA alone but when it comes to Star Alliance, if you combine AC, UA, CO and US thats pretty damn coverage for SA.
34 MAH4546 : No, it's really not. CO isn't even that big in South America; CO is huge in Central America/Mexico. The combined CO/UA/AC/US network to South America
35 AirCanada014 : We can also say the same thing it would be make perfect sense for LAN to join Star Alliance make that power even stronger too giving them more presen
36 Viscount724 : Huge is stretching the truth. Only one AC destination in South America (GRU) has daily service. Most have only 3 or 4 flights a week which isn't comp
37 SKY1 : First at all, TAM is not right now a * Alliance member. When TAM joins (if finally joins) and have a big power of influence inside LAN, let's to star
38 BOACCunard : If LA and JJ had to be in the same alliance, oneworld would be a better choice than Star. AA would be the strongest North American partner for both L
39 brons2 : ...And then Tilton woke up.
40 BOACCunard : Surely in Tilton's dream BA would have to go to Star. My dream is that AA bought NW and BA merged with KL, making AA strong across the Pacific, solid
41 cloudyapple : Cathay owns 18.1% of Air China and Air China owns 30% of Cathay Pacific. Has either of them moved alliance? No. Ultimately it's all about how you make
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