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The End Of Aviation?  
User currently offlineTCrew From United States of America, joined Jan 2010, 10 posts, RR: 0
Posted (6 years 3 months 3 weeks 4 days 13 hours ago) and read 3543 times:

Stumbled across an interesting article dated from August 2008.

The End of Aviation

The basic premise of the article is that the aviation industry is facing trauma with ever increasing oil prices (this article was written at the highpoint of rising oil prices in 2008).

Early signs of an aviation apocalypse are already upon us. As oil prices flirt with $130 per barrel and the dollar struggles, airlines are paying nearly 80 percent more for fuel than they did a year ago. Twenty-five airlines have gone belly-up this year--three to four times the usual yearly rate. Major carriers like American, Northwest, and United, still reeling from the industry downturn after September 11, go barely a month without announcing layoffs and capacity cuts.

We now know that as this article was written the Great Recession was taking hold and oil went from $147 in July 2008 to $33 in December 2008. Today, oil has returned to $70, even as the world struggles to climb out of the recession. It seems almost inevitable that we will top $100 per barrel and beyond in the not so distant future.

Good news is prevalent in the aviation industry now-a-days. We hear of profitability, route expansion, purchase orders, successful mergers, etc. Could it be that the recent recycle of oil prices and downward economy was something of a reprieve for airlines? Did it give them the opportunity to reorganize themselves into leaner, fitter companies?

Are these companies better prepared to face rising oil costs? Alternative fuel sources are not currently viable and of no use in the near term. How will airlines fare when oil hits $147 again? Will legacies fall, leaving LCC and regionals? At what price do the airlines become unable to function, and resultant fares unmarketable?

2 replies: All unread, jump to last
User currently offlineSKY1 From Spain, joined Apr 2006, 885 posts, RR: 3
Reply 1, posted (6 years 3 months 3 weeks 4 days 13 hours ago) and read 3456 times:

Quoting TCrew (Thread starter):
How will airlines fare when oil hits $147 again?

On the short and medium term no it's possible for the World's economy an oil in $150 or more during many days. It's impossible to bear and I HOPE this price aroud 70-80 USD can go on as long as possible.

Time flies! Enjoy life!
User currently offlineDocLightning From United States of America, joined Nov 2005, 23784 posts, RR: 60
Reply 2, posted (6 years 3 months 3 weeks 4 days 13 hours ago) and read 3370 times:

Aviation will not go away until we come up with a faster form of travel that is equally versatile. However, it may get significantly more expensive.

Alternatively, airlines might work to find other fuel sources that provide cheaper and more sustainable supplies.

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