US Air/TWA Fan From United States of America, joined Mar 2001, 125 posts, RR: 0 Posted (12 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 15 hours ago) and read 2772 times:
Southwest said it will announce within a week that it has choosen a new city to fly to this fall.
The only clue SWA left us is that it is east of the Mississippi River.
Any guess on the city?
Dayton, Ohio (high fares/less service)
Allentown, PA (same/near Philly)
Richmond, VA (same)
Harrisburg, PA (same)
Knoxville, TN (same)
Milwaukee, Wis. (but: close to MDW, Midwest Express hub)
Myrtle Beach or Charleston, SC (but: leisure destination w/small population base)
Syracuse or Rochester, NY (but: close to Buffalo)
DB777 From United States of America, joined Apr 2001, 885 posts, RR: 47 Reply 4, posted (12 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 8 hours ago) and read 2563 times:
I'd go with Greenville/Spartanburg or Columbia, South Carolina in that order. With great interstate highway access, GSP could easily attract traffic from US's high fare hub at Charlotte and from the northern part of the metropolitan Atlanta area, along with folks in the Asheville/Hendersonville area. If you look at a map of cities served by Southwest there's a huge gap in the area of GSP and CAE.
Someone pointed out Southwest's affinity for state capitols so Columbia may have an edge there.
Photographing aircraft since the Earth was flat and on Airliners.net since #338
DCA-ROCguy From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 4418 posts, RR: 35 Reply 6, posted (12 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 7 hours ago) and read 2551 times:
All good guesses..especially Richmond and Milwaukee. Southwest's new executive team (Parker/ Barrett) recently told Aviation Week that they'd like to add at least two more cities in the Northeast soon, so Rochester (bigger population, higher median income and healthier economy than Syracuse) and Allentown or Trenton (draw from Philly, NYC) are likeliest in my view in that region.
Richmond is also a good possibility. High fares/ bad service, medium-size population base, and at the intersection of two interstates....could draw from Norfolk area to east, Charlottesville etc to west. Norfolk is bigger but not as well located, so maybe a tossup between RIC and ORF.
The presence of Midwest Express would not, IMO, likely deter WN from entering MKE. Midex does not serve BWI, and only has Skyway service to STL, both very likely destinations if WN came to MKE. Also, I don't think Midex is big enough for WN to want to avoid.
DCA-ROCguy From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 4418 posts, RR: 35 Reply 8, posted (12 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 6 hours ago) and read 2515 times:
Here's a thought on the Richmond-Norfolk question:
AirTran serves Newport News Williamsburg Airport, about 10 miles up I-64 from the City of Norfolk. If Southwest were to come to the Norfolk area, I bet they'd fly there instead of ORF. It's much easier to get to from Richmond because one doesn't have to traverse either of the clogged tunnels under Hampton Roads. And people in Norfolk and Virginia Beach would no doubt still use it, as they use AirTran.
Folks coming from out of town, though, might like not having to use the tunnels, and Newport News Airport would make a WN station more attractive to them. What think y'all?
Charlieduke From United States of America, joined May 2001, 36 posts, RR: 0 Reply 9, posted (12 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 6 hours ago) and read 2509 times:
This is my very first post on airliners.net so I’d better get it right. The next city will be in …… (drum roll please)……Virginia. I base this on information from “well placed sources.” Well, that and a dart board. To MattD—FAT is going to have to wait along with COS. They will be the next western cities to get WN, but WN is racing other low fare carriers to establish a presence in the east. Don’t expect them to look west for a couple more years.
Globetrotter From United States of America, joined Feb 2000, 174 posts, RR: 0 Reply 13, posted (12 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 3 hours ago) and read 2472 times:
Oh, please let it be ORF! All of us 'Southsiders' in Hampton Roads would be very grateful. DCA-ROCguy mentioned PHF across the Bay in Newport News. It's a nice new facility that could use some more traffic, but I'm not sure it would meet Southwest's criteria. From my memories of flying out of PHF, there are only four gates and no jetways. Also, while WN's operations would undoubtedly bring more traffic through PHF, I don't know that it would be enough to generate the eight departures per day that WN desires. AirTran's success (or lack thereof) at PHF might be an indication of this. Does anyone know what loads are for FL out of PHF?
Srbmod From United States of America, joined Mar 2001, 17267 posts, RR: 51 Reply 14, posted (12 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 3 hours ago) and read 2465 times:
Actually Savannah would be a good choice for them. It's far enough away from ATL and is close to several vacation destinations, Hilton Head and the GA Barrier Islands. Virginia has been trying for some time to get Southwest to fly into the state, even going as far as to put up a Virginia is for Lovers billboard by Love Field. Richmond does make sense and sits in an ideal place for flights. RIC is deserving of a low-fare airline. The last lowfare airline to operate flights into RIC was AirTran, and they suspended those over two years ago. Now Columbia S.C. would also be a logical choice. Other than Delta's mainline flights to ATL, the only other operators are regional carriers flying to CLT or ATL. BHM has been very good for Southwest. They get people driving 2 hours from ATL to catch a WN flight. Columbia would get the folks in Augusta no problem, especially considering that it has been downgraded to regional service by the other airlines, and their last low-fare airline was Valujet. Whatever city that gets Southwest to serve their city will be lucky indeed.
Tan flyr From United States of America, joined Aug 2000, 1877 posts, RR: 0 Reply 16, posted (12 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 2 hours ago) and read 2456 times:
Question for those of you more in the know about WN....I have heard that WN need to schedule at least 5 flights daily to make a new city work, then I have heard 10? Is there a magic number? Or do demographics play a different role at WN?
I don't think that FAT could support (profitably) 5,much less 10 WN flights per day without totally decimating the profitability of the rest of the jet flights(AA to DFW, UX toDEN, DL to SLC and HP to PHX, AS to SEA) and probably the loss of much of that service. MY point?..I think there are cities that want WN and believe that it will improve service/fares/etc., but in reality it may not work out that way at all.
While the central valley area has a good population base, our demographics for disposable income/ large corporate HQ's, etc. suck. Bottom line is, like your Gransmother probably said, be careful what you wish for..you just might get it.
DCA-ROCguy From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 4418 posts, RR: 35 Reply 17, posted (12 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 2 hours ago) and read 2446 times:
So what if Southwest 'decimates the profitability' of the rest of the High-Fare Six Families at FAT? WN by themselves would probably offer more seat capacity to FAT than everyone else together offers now.
Let's imagine that WN entered FAT. From FAT, WN would probably serve OAK, LAX, and PHX. PHX is their biggest hub, and Fresnonians could get to a ton of places from there. The Six Families would still offer RJ and turboprop service to their hubs, so Fresnonians wouldn't lose the opportunity to pay inflated fares to all the places Southwest doesn't fly.
The Six Families like their extortion-fares feed from the small and medium markets. They'll take whatever they cang get, whether there's enough of it to fill four A320's a day or four Beechcraft 1900's. Case in point is Islip/ Long Island, which isnt' quite big enough to consistently support Six Families jet service. After Southwest entered, the Six Families ended remaining narrowbody-jet service (except for Delta Express). But there is still turboprop and RJ service to Six Families hubs, just so that Lon-Ghilanders can pay inflated fares to get to all those places WN doesn't fly. Check the timetables.
This "Southwest hurts competition" argument because it supplants a lot of Six Families service at smaller medium-size airports is completely bogus. BO-GUS.
DeltAirlines From United States of America, joined May 1999, 8818 posts, RR: 12 Reply 19, posted (12 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 1 hour ago) and read 2442 times:
Where it WILL NOT BE:
1.) Worcester, MA - Sorry Zrs70. WN serves BDL, MHT, and PVD, all of which are a 1 hour drive from Worcester
2.) Allentown, PA - There is no terminal space avail.
Where it CAN BE:
1.) Atlanta - Peachtree DeKalb. I think people in ATL might like Delta's selection, but certainly not their prices (over $400 for Restricted Economy for ATL-SAV-ATL)
2.) Trenton - Underserved market (only Shuttle America), close to PHL and NYC Metro Area, and its 6006 ft runway could handle 737s, as I have taken off in a fully loaded 777 from BOS to LHR on 6000 ft of runway, so a 733 or 735 should be no problem.
3.) Richmond - Close to the Washington area, but not bad for Norfolk area too.
ABQ757 From United States of America, joined Oct 1999, 293 posts, RR: 2 Reply 23, posted (12 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days ago) and read 2418 times:
Out of all the cities mentioned, I think that RIC is the best choice. Like everyone has said, it's close to DC and Norfolk is close by. I like MKE too, and Midwest Express isn't big enough to scare WN away. MSP is out of the question, with Northwest's hub there they will not have a chance.