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USA Air Travel Post Legacies?  
User currently offlinemaddog888 From United Kingdom, joined Apr 2007, 162 posts, RR: 0
Posted (4 years 5 months 2 weeks 3 days 11 hours ago) and read 1884 times:

Someone suggested in another thread that if european airlines tried to offer service within the US, they would get creamed by the US airlines due to CASM etc. I have two questions; one is would this not also be the end of the US legacies? Whilst they might win the fight with the outsiders, would it be the end of them as well? Do they have the financial resources to survive such a fight?

The second question is, assuming the american govt. let the legacies die off, what would the airline travel scene be like post legacies?

Just hypotheticals as I assume no american govt. would let this happen.

J

9 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently offlinetharanga From United States of America, joined Apr 2009, 1861 posts, RR: 1
Reply 1, posted (4 years 5 months 2 weeks 3 days 11 hours ago) and read 1878 times:

By US law, they wouldn't be allowed to try, but why would they want to try anyway? It'd make much more sense to simply merge with an existing US carrier, if that were allowed, not try to enter the market from scratch and get into fare wars.

[Edited 2010-02-09 12:55:49]

User currently offlineLHCVG From United States of America, joined May 2009, 1542 posts, RR: 1
Reply 2, posted (4 years 5 months 2 weeks 3 days 11 hours ago) and read 1870 times:

Quoting maddog888 (Thread starter):
The second question is, assuming the american govt. let the legacies die off, what would the airline travel scene be like post legacies?

I'm not sure if the leagacies will entirely die off per se, but it seems like things may be going back to where the legacies become the major int'l/premium carriers and the likes of WN/B6/FL/VX run the show domestically, aside from the key business/trunk routes where the legacies can still earn premiums for premium service (I'd guess mostly transcons here). As for the gov't issue, who knows if they will eventually intervene in some fashion, but I'd imagine that they would not let all of the legacies die out entirely. Granted we may end up with an AT&T scenario where all that's left is the name, but I doubt we will see all of the remaining legacy names at least disappear altogether.


User currently offlinemaddog888 From United Kingdom, joined Apr 2007, 162 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (4 years 5 months 2 weeks 3 days 11 hours ago) and read 1830 times:

er, wrong end of the stick here, I know the reality, I was looking for theoretical ideas about how airline travel would evolve if the legacies all died out. Who would expand to take over Int'l travel, what sort of services would be offered domestic and Int'l, would someone new come out of the left field?
J


User currently offlinem11stephen From United States of America, joined Aug 2008, 1247 posts, RR: 1
Reply 4, posted (4 years 5 months 2 weeks 3 days 10 hours ago) and read 1790 times:

Sadly, I won't be surprised when we see the day that the vast majority (even more than know) of US domestic flights and "short-haul" international flights are operated by regional carriers. I see that happening but I don't see foreign airlines taking over in the US.


My opinions, statements, etc. are my own and do not have any association with those of any employer.
User currently offlinetharanga From United States of America, joined Apr 2009, 1861 posts, RR: 1
Reply 5, posted (4 years 5 months 2 weeks 3 days 8 hours ago) and read 1744 times:

Quoting maddog888 (Reply 3):
er, wrong end of the stick here, I know the reality, I was looking for theoretical ideas about how airline travel would evolve if the legacies all died out. Who would expand to take over Int'l travel, what sort of services would be offered domestic and Int'l, would someone new come out of the left field?
J

I just don't see a scenario where this plays out. If WN, B6 and FL become network carriers with wide international networks, then they'll essentially just become the same as legacy carriers anyway. Only difference being in labor relations, maybe.


User currently offlineLHCVG From United States of America, joined May 2009, 1542 posts, RR: 1
Reply 6, posted (4 years 5 months 2 weeks 3 days 6 hours ago) and read 1675 times:

Quoting tharanga (Reply 5):
I just don't see a scenario where this plays out. If WN, B6 and FL become network carriers with wide international networks, then they'll essentially just become the same as legacy carriers anyway. Only difference being in labor relations, maybe.

Exactly. It would destroy the entire the business model centered around one (WN) or possibly two (FL or B6) types. The only exception I see working without wholesale change in the corporate culture and business model would be for WN (for example) to get their hands on some 757s to do Hawaii runs.


User currently offlineweb500sjc From United States of America, joined Sep 2009, 726 posts, RR: 0
Reply 7, posted (4 years 5 months 2 weeks 2 days 17 hours ago) and read 1585 times:

The us legacies would not die of, or at least the name would not go away. There will always be an ameirican airlines, and I am tempted to say united airlines, just because he names sound so American and appeal to Americans.


Boiler Up!
User currently offlineBNAFlyer From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 8, posted (4 years 5 months 2 weeks 2 days 17 hours ago) and read 1573 times:

"If" (and IMO, that's an if that'll never happen) foreign carriers were ever allowed to compete, and say a SQ or EK came in and offered the same product they do now on U.S. domestic routes, it will surely get the attention of American carriers. Maybe then the "legacies" will think twice about the level of service that most, but not all, currently provide. There'll still be a place for the LCC's, but the big boys would certainly have to adjust.

User currently offlineTango-Bravo From United States of America, joined Jun 2001, 3802 posts, RR: 29
Reply 9, posted (4 years 5 months 2 weeks 2 days 13 hours ago) and read 1526 times:

Quoting web500sjc (Reply 7):
The us legacies would not die of, or at least the name would not go away

As long as it remains tenable for U.S. legacy airlines to serve the hundreds of secondary and smaller U.S. markets ...there will be at least a legacy or two who will survive. There is no way foreign carriers or U.S. based LCCs/upstarts will duplicate the level of comprehensive U.S. domestic route networks the legacies can offer...and many of the hubs (think CVG, CLT, SLC and others) through which the smaller cities are served by the legacies are, themselves, too small to be meaningfully attractive for 'cherry picking' as point-to-point markets for LCCs and/or foreign carriers given cabotage authority...so the legacies would, by default if for no other reason, be able to continue to serve the largest markets from their hubs...and at strong yields (think all the posts we have have seen about 'rapacious' fares charged by DL at CVG) not possible in the hotly contested mega-markets.


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