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JAL Says NO To SkyTeam/Delta - Part 2  
User currently offlineLipeGIG From Brazil, joined May 2005, 11458 posts, RR: 58
Posted (4 years 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 18 hours ago) and read 12765 times:
AIRLINERS.NET CREW
FORUM MODERATOR

Continuation of the discussion on JAL announcement that they will continue with Oneworld and reject DL/SkyTeam propposal

First part Link:

RE: JAL Says NO To Delta/SkyTeam (by ariis Feb 7 2010 in Civil Aviation)



Regards
Felipe


New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
114 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlinekiwiandrew From New Zealand, joined Jun 2005, 8603 posts, RR: 13
Reply 1, posted (4 years 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 18 hours ago) and read 12740 times:
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I guess the real work starts now .

The restructuring and re-birth of JL .

The very thing that left me with egg on my face strikes me as the biggest sign of hope for JL - the fact that it made its own decision rather than going with what the Japanese government seemed to want it to do .

I think one of the two biggest problems JL has had is the fact that even though privatised many years ago it seemed to continue to feel that it had to follow the will of politicians rather than working within the real world .

The second problem is that the shareholding is so diverse that the airline hasnt really had a leadership or a sense of direction . ( Someone posted a link to a very interesting article which actually suggested that the lack of a 'lead' shareholder could be one of the main reasons why the airline seems to have constantly bowed to the government ... I wish I could remember which thread or indeed which website the link was posted on ) .

Hopefully the new management will run the company as an airline rather than as a de facto government department . ( and hopefully the Japanese government and Civil Service will permit them to do so .)



Moderation in all things ... including moderation ;-)
User currently offlineWorldTraveler From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 2, posted (4 years 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 17 hours ago) and read 12625 times:

Quoting kiwiandrew (Reply 1):
The very thing that left me with egg on my face strikes me as the biggest sign of hope for JL - the fact that it made its own decision rather than going with what the Japanese government seemed to want it to do .

JL has never listened to politicians when it comes to restructuring the business which is why they are in the shape they are in now... the best hope is that their current CEO (the one so many called too old and nothing but a figurehead) indicated that JL would reconsider its options in a few years after the company is more stable.

Anyone can recognize that if JL is taking out $7B in loans to restructure, the task ahead is huge - and not at all certain.



I would also like to clarify with data several comments that were made about airline size across the Pacific.

Per the current schedules for travel in July 10, here is capacity by carrier between the US (including Hawaii) and East Asia

DL 474M ASMs (up from 348 combined DL/NW ASMs in 2009)
UA 419M ASMs (essentially flat YOY)
JL 236M ASMs (including JO)
AA 155M ASMs (up)
CO 141M ASMs

NH 137M ASMs

KE 358M ASMs

JL+AA 391M ASMs or slightly smaller than UA and significantly smaller than DL.

So once again, DL has every legitimate right to say it is the largest airline to Asia.
Also, AA plus JL is still substantially smaller than UA or DL.
If you include NH plus UA, they become larger than DL... but if you include KE which does have traffic rights between the US and Japan as well as it routes between Japan and Korea which connect to the US, DL/KE can be counted as the largest carrier across the Pacific. As several articles have confirmed of late, KE is in many ways, the defacto airline for much of Japan outside of Tokyo.

You could add in a few other carriers for any of the alliances but the biggest carriers in any configuration are listed above.

Some would like to argue that Americans are fixated with size... but they clearly don't understand network dynamics. Airline alliances are all about obtaining sufficient mass.... and the Americans aren't the only ones to do it.

In NE Asia, Skyteam is so far ahead of the rest of the industry in terms of overall capacity that they are more than capable of standing on their own.

If you look at capacity within East Asia,

DL has 23M ASMs
JL has 74M
NH has 41M
UA has 8M
KE has 21M

So once again, if you take just NRT to the rest of East Asia, DL is still only half the size of NH/UA and 1/3 the size of JL - not a huge difference when you consider that those latter two airlines are headquartered there. If you include DL and KE together along w/ NH and UA, NH/UA is only slightly larger. Those who think that Skyteam is at a huge disadvantage are clearly not looking at the statistics. Even without a Japanese based partner, Skyteam is still well in the running in terms of its ability to field capacity within East Asia.


User currently offlinecommavia From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 11840 posts, RR: 62
Reply 3, posted (4 years 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 17 hours ago) and read 12607 times:

Quote:
To all the AA fans coming out of the woodwork now wanting a piece of the "celebration", gloating is highly ineffective, but not that you really cared anyway.

It strikes me as a bit ironic that some are now telling the AA "fans" to slow down with their "gloating" and "celebration," when I consider how some of the Delta "fans" were acting just a few weeks ago - actively commenting on how bad this was for AA, how this could mean the end of oneworld as an alliance, etc. The reaction then - by a different crew - seemed far more like "gloating" to me than the average reaction now.

Quote:
The DL doom and gloom sentiment on here is a bit hilarious.

Why do people have to be such drama queens? Again - nobody is expressing "doom and gloom" and saying it's all over for Delta, they should just hang it up and go out of business. Nothing of the sort. All that some - myself included - are expressing is that this was definitely a setback for Delta since it deprives them of the "easy" out vis-a-vis their Narita operation, which I personally believe is not viable long-term. JAL would have given them a perfect solution to that problem, allowing them to effectively hand most of that operation over to JAL and devote those resources elsewhere. But, as I and many others have said countless times, Delta has a strong brand and excellent management, and will no doubt now focus on further strengthening their network for the future. No doom nor gloom here.

Quote:
The question is how long it will take before JAL reaches the next financial crisis and when they are forced to develop relationships that are in their long-term best interest.

You seem fairly certain that JAL is now bound for failure since they didn't pick Delta. (I'm trying to act surprised.) But maybe, just like the last time that "some" here on A.net were so certainly sure of something (than JAL would pick Delta), it may not turn out quite the way that "some" see as inevitable.

Quote:
I wonder what this could mean for DL's PDX-NRT. I'm probably getting ahead of myself but if their plan B means more of a NRT overfly or a shift to ICN, I would imagine this flight will be pulled when the subsidies run out. Perhaps PDX-NRT will be axed in favor of PDX-ICN? I could see AA adding SFO-NRT and possibly SEA-NRT, but not PDX-NRT.

To start with - again - I personally believe that Delta's Narita hub is not sustainable long-term. I'll start with that.

Given that, the question becomes, if - over time - Delta transitions Narita away from a hub operation towards more of a large international spoke, which flights would still work. Of the present Delta schedule from the U.S. to Narita, I think virtually all of it would still work even without the onward connections to ICN, PEK, PVG, MNL, TPE, SIN, BKK and HKG.

ATL, JFK, DTW, MSP and SEA would all be completely safe, in my personal opinion. With or without an actual connecting hub at NRT, the local market alone at Delta's huge hubs (or at least sizable connecting operations in SEA's case) at those locations in the U.S. would be able to support a daily NRT flight.

LAX would probably be safe. It's a massive local market, and Delta/SkyTeam have a presence there.

SFO would be a challenge, in my view, since that's not a market where Delta/SkyTeam are particularly strong. And, United-ANA will dominate there, with AA-JAL picking up the scraps with JAL's daily flight.

SLC and PDX would be goners, in my opinion. Without an actual hub at Narita, I don't think either one of those would ever stand a chance of surviving on O&D alone, or even O&D plus connections in SLC's case. That's fine, though, since the PDX-originating, Asia-bound traffic could be distributed (not ideal, but workable) over SEA via AS/QX, and all of the connections handled over SLC can pretty much all be handled over MSP or even SEA.


User currently offlineWorldTraveler From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 4, posted (4 years 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 12516 times:

Quoting commavia (Reply 3):
Why do people have to be such drama queens? Again - nobody is expressing "doom and gloom" and saying it's all over for Delta, they should just hang it up and go out of business. Nothing of the sort. All that some - myself included - are expressing is that this was definitely a setback for Delta since it deprives them of the "easy" out vis-a-vis their Narita operation, which I personally believe is not viable long-term. JAL would have given them a perfect solution to that problem, allowing them to effectively hand most of that operation over to JAL and devote those resources elsewhere. But, as I and many others have said countless times, Delta has a strong brand and excellent management, and will no doubt now focus on further strengthening their network for the future. No doom nor gloom here.

I would agree w/ most of your statement except for your lack of faith in DL's ability to restructure NRT.

Quoting commavia (Reply 3):
You seem fairly certain that JAL is now bound for failure since they didn't pick Delta

JAL was a basket case before DL and AA came along - there isn't any indication that they can turn things around - their mgmt is not talking about regaining anything they have lost.

Quoting commavia (Reply 3):
Delta transitions Narita away from a hub operation towards more of a large international spo

DL doesn't NEED a hub in NRT... it needs and will retain the local market.

DL WILL develop Japan overflight routes - they would done that whether JAL came along or not. They will do it because NW has not competed in the East Asia-US market outside of Japan very well. It is an opportunity that DL can and will take advantage of.

DL WILL retain the local market. I said it about CVG - and despite the hub cutbacks, DL has yet to lose any of the local market. DL closed its FRA hub but is still the largest US airline in Germany other than UA's presence in LH hubs... DL doesn't and hasn't walked away from the local market EVEN WHEN THEY restructure hubs.

DL can serve the local Japan-East Asia market quite effectively where it make sense to do so with smaller gauge aircraft - no 330s or 744s flying within Asia if that destination can be served from the US nonstop.

DL will move forward w/ ATI/JV w/ KE - they could have done it yesterday. Not every destination - China is not eligible for ATI/JV. But Taiwan, SIN, Thailand, OZ all have Open Skies w/ the US and thus can have ATI/JV. In many of those markets, it makes sense for DL and KE to work together to serve the local markets which are not worth serving nonstop from the US.

DL is far from down and out in Asia.

It can restructure its NRT hub to turn airplanes around back to the US efficiently... that is what NW did for years before it restructured its slots at NRT 10-15 years ago - can't remember the exact time. DL has more than enough NRT slots that it can do what it needs to do to gain the efficiencies it needs on its own.


User currently offlinecommavia From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 11840 posts, RR: 62
Reply 5, posted (4 years 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 12490 times:

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 4):
DL doesn't NEED a hub in NRT

Agree.

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 4):
it needs and will retain the local market.

Disagree.

Delta will not be able to "retain the local market" long-term with only 1 flight per day to key markets up against bigger, stronger local players with far larger local volume.

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 4):
DL WILL develop Japan overflight routes - they would done that whether JAL came along or not. They will do it because NW has not competed in the East Asia-US market outside of Japan very well. It is an opportunity that DL can and will take advantage of.

Absolutely agree. This is where Delta is headed - it is definitely the smart play for them going forward, and would have been with or without JAL.

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 4):
DL WILL retain the local market.

Again - I don't think so.

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 4):
I said it about CVG

And the jury is very much still out on that one.

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 4):
DL can serve the local Japan-East Asia market quite effectively where it make sense to do so with smaller gauge aircraft - no 330s or 744s flying within Asia if that destination can be served from the US nonstop.

Right, so then what you're effectively talking about is a daily A330 or 767 to BKK, SIN, and maybe MNL, and a 757 to TPE and maybe PUS.

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 4):
DL will move forward w/ ATI/JV w/ KE - they could have done it yesterday. Not every destination - China is not eligible for ATI/JV. But Taiwan, SIN, Thailand, OZ all have Open Skies w/ the US and thus can have ATI/JV. In many of those markets, it makes sense for DL and KE to work together to serve the local markets which are not worth serving nonstop from the US.

I once again agree that this is likely where they're headed. And that's very smart. As others have already said, in many cases, ICN is a far superior connecting hub to NRT anyway.

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 4):
DL is far from down and out in Asia.

Nobody ever said they were.


User currently offlineOA412 From United States of America, joined Dec 2000, 5351 posts, RR: 25
Reply 6, posted (4 years 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 12399 times:

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 4):
DL WILL retain the local market.

But at what yield? I just don't see DLs NRT hub being long for this world when they will be up against immunized CO/UA/NH and AA/JL.



Hughes Airwest - Top Banana In The West
User currently offlinecommavia From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 11840 posts, RR: 62
Reply 7, posted (4 years 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 12378 times:

Quoting OA412 (Reply 6):
But at what yield? I just don't see DLs NRT hub being long for this world when they will be up against immunized CO/UA/NH and AA/JL.

Exactly.

The trend of the last 20 years will continue. Progressively smaller planes and, in my opinion, eventually progressively fewer flights.

Short of BKK and SIN, which need the NRT stopover because nonstops from the U.S. are just not economically viable today, all of the cities served over NRT by Delta can be served profitably from the U.S. with the possible exception of PUS, MNL and TPE - PUS because it's just too small a market, and MNL and TPE because the yields can be rough. But HKG, ICN, PEK and PVG - absolutely no reason why those need to be linked to NRT at all.


User currently offlineWorldTraveler From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 8, posted (4 years 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 12367 times:

Quoting commavia (Reply 5):
Delta will not be able to "retain the local market" long-term with only 1 flight per day to key markets up against bigger, stronger local players with far larger local volume.

First, the NRT operation has been built as a connecting complex... there has been no desire to serve the local market "off complex". Even w/ the requirements that intra-Asia flights operate as part of a US originating/terminating flight number, there is huge flexibility in adding service in markets, esp. considering that there are slots that were used by the cargo operation that are not being used - and do not operate on the same banks as the passenger operation. It is very possible that DL could add double daily service NRT to HKG and SIN with 757s and completely go after the local market as well as local carriers could.
You underestimate what DL could do because you have no idea what options they have... and you don't have any idea what resources they have.

You also don't know the value of the local market. The perception that all of the local market is simply low value traffic that DL can't obtain is patently inaccurate. There is plenty of evidence that DL/NW does command a decent portion of the local NRT market but uses too large of aircraft (pushing up costs) and carries too much low value US-originating flow traffic. The local market either TPAC or within Asia is not the problem.


User currently offlinemayor From United States of America, joined Mar 2008, 10601 posts, RR: 14
Reply 9, posted (4 years 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 15 hours ago) and read 12357 times:

From oneworld77 on previous thread....

"Yes it is done. And does not include LoserTeam!!!

I'm enjoying the gloating after all the 'SkyFlot' team have put OW supporters through.


And I'm enjoying it. AA/BA is a happy place today!"


Awwww, did you little feelings get hurt? You're not better or worse than the DL supporters on here. As soon as this came out in the media, BEFORE the official announcement, the AA supporters were jumping all over DL, just as they had jumped the gun, before.


From CODC10 on previous thread

"It must be the Delta Psychic Friends Network that puts forth all the rumors of "big things to come" that so many seem to subscribe to..."


Nope, just management.


From cws818 on previous thread


"Quoting mayor (Reply 287):
Congratulations to JAL......I wish you good luck and sympathy.

Why the expression of sympathy?"


Because now they have to try and work with an airline that was willing to threaten them to get their way. Doesn't actually bode well for a good relationship, does it?



"A committee is a group of the unprepared, appointed by the unwilling, to do the unnecessary"----Fred Allen
User currently offlineIncitatus From Brazil, joined Feb 2005, 4052 posts, RR: 13
Reply 10, posted (4 years 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 15 hours ago) and read 12343 times:

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 4):
DL closed its FRA hub but is still the largest US airline in Germany other than UA's presence in LH hubs... DL doesn't and hasn't walked away from the local market EVEN WHEN THEY restructure hubs.

Looking at Germany, yes DL has a large presence today. But looking at FRA, DL is a small reminder of its past. I just do not see DL pulling out the same kind of de-concentration at NRT and increasing presence in secondary markets. DL can pull it off from ATL to Germany, but there is no equivalent of ATL in the DL network for Asia. For sure a complicated strategy and in the end the market will dictate what works.



Stop pop up ads
User currently offlineWorldTraveler From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 11, posted (4 years 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 15 hours ago) and read 12278 times:

Quoting commavia (Reply 7):
Short of BKK and SIN, which need the NRT stopover because nonstops from the U.S. are just not economically viable today, all of the cities served over NRT by Delta can be served profitably from the U.S. with the possible exception of PUS, MNL and TPE - PUS because it's just too small a market, and MNL and TPE because the yields can be rough.

First, "not economically viable" is because there are no aircraft that have been used that are capable of making it to SE Asia from the US. But the 777LR has not been used and is very capable of making it nonstop. Since DL isn't commiting to SIN service, the market isn't there but if DL believes there is a market, they will not hesitate to jump in - and SQ will be the victim. There is no way any carrier that operates a plane w/ 100 seats can compete against one that carries 275 seats plus cargo and has lower operating costs as well. SIN is as likely to happen on DL from either LAX or JFK as it is on SQ.
BKK is less certain as a nonstop market but if there is a market that DL could serve, the LR can be used.
And remember that BKK and SIN are both within range of SEA on the 772ER.
NW currently carries more than 400 pax/day to MNL. I don't think it is at all out of the realm of possibility that they could serve MNL nonstop from SEA on a performance enhanced 330 and push the yield up in the process.
The 332 with the performance improvement package will be a 14 hr aircraft - capable of flying deep into Asia at costs well below any existing aircraft.
Same can be said for TPE. It is not a large market but there are clear opportunities to obtain higher yields. There is no nonstop service to TPE from the interior/eastern US. You can't tell me that there is no opportunity to serve the central or Eastern US to TPE except to give traffic to Taiwanese airlines at west coast gateways. BTW, DL has a Taiwanese partner...
Bottom line is that DL could serve more of Asia nonstop than any airline because of its gateways at JFK, DTW, SEA, and LAX.. and its ability to use smaller, lower cost aircraft.
DL really doesnt' need to use NRT as a gateway to the rest of Asia - but it will retain the local NRT to Asia market....
Given that DL has chosen not to exercise its beyond rights at FRA, of course, DL is much smaller there.... but there is no indication yet that DL is giving up its beyond Japan services.

Of course any characterization of US-intra-Asia traffic as low yield also applies to AA/JL. I can show you AA, DL/NW, and UA US-NRT reports that show that there is alot of low value revenue being carried beyond NRT... the clear advantage is to the carriers serving those markets nonstop. As each subsequent nonstop is added, what is left to flow over NRT becomes even less attractive. The NRT local market may be shrinking but the value of flow traffic over NRT will shrink even faster.


User currently offlinecommavia From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 11840 posts, RR: 62
Reply 12, posted (4 years 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 15 hours ago) and read 12227 times:

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 11):
First, "not economically viable" is because there are no aircraft that have been used that are capable of making it to SE Asia from the US. But the 777LR has not been used and is very capable of making it nonstop.

I'm well aware that 77Ls are technically capable of flying nonstop to BKK or SIN. The problem is that flights that long will be difficult to make profitable at U.S. airlines' cost and fare levels. Plus, where in the U.S. would they fly it from? The only U.S. gateways I could see having even a remote chance of working are ATL and JFK - and even then, only to SIN, not BKK (which is too low-yielding).

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 11):
And remember that BKK and SIN are both within range of SEA on the 772ER.

Neither of those markets would ever be able to profitably support a nonstop flight to SEA. Those two cities are just able to sustain nonstops to LAX and New York. If they can't support SFO or ORD, there's no way either could support SEA.

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 11):
NW currently carries more than 400 pax/day to MNL. I don't think it is at all out of the realm of possibility that they could serve MNL nonstop from SEA on a performance enhanced 330 and push the yield up in the process.

I don't either. Manila is one that might actually make sense as a nonstop from the U.S. It is, indeed, a big market.

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 11):
Same can be said for TPE. It is not a large market but there are clear opportunities to obtain higher yields.

I don't see how. Both of the local airlines - who cater heavily to local VFR traffic and low-yielding connections to Southeast Asia - have low costs and deeply discount their flights.

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 11):
There is no nonstop service to TPE from the interior/eastern US.

There's a reason why.

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 11):
There is no nonstop service to TPE from the interior/eastern US. You can't tell me that there is no opportunity to serve the central or Eastern US to TPE except to give traffic to Taiwanese airlines at west coast gateways.

I can tell, and am telling you.

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 11):
BTW, DL has a Taiwanese partner...

And if they really wanted to have access to Taiwan from interior U.S., per se, they'd be much better off letting that lower-cost Taiwanese airline handle it.

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 11):
Bottom line is that DL could serve more of Asia nonstop than any airline because of its gateways at JFK, DTW, SEA, and LAX.. and its ability to use smaller, lower cost aircraft.

B.S.

United's hubs - especially SFO - are far better positioned to handle traffic flows to Asia than any Delta hub. San Francisco not only has a massive local market (probably one of the biggest of any U.S. metro area), but it's also in a perfect geographic location. They also have Chicago. The best shot Delta has is Seattle, and to a lesser extent JFK and Atlanta. Given that choice, I'd take United's network and hub structure any day of the week.

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 11):
DL really doesnt' need to use NRT as a gateway to the rest of Asia - but it will retain the local NRT to Asia market....

Again - completely agree with the first part, completely disagree with the second. They definitely don't "need" NRT to get to most of the rest of Asia. But they have little chance of surviving in the local NRT-Asia market long-term.

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 11):
Of course any characterization of US-intra-Asia traffic as low yield also applies to AA/JL.

The big difference is that JAL has a much better chance of augmenting that allegedly-low yielding NRT-Asia traffic with the vaunted local traffic that Delta is supposedly going to focus on. On any route from NRT to any point in Asia, I'll put my bet on JAL or ANA over Delta any day of the week.


User currently offlineviscount724 From Switzerland, joined Oct 2006, 25871 posts, RR: 22
Reply 13, posted (4 years 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 15 hours ago) and read 12186 times:

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 8):
It is very possible that DL could add double daily service NRT to HKG and SIN with 757s and completely go after the local market as well as local carriers could.

How would that work when the NRT-Asia sectors have to be continuations of a flight number to/from the US? Do you mean thaqt DL has enough flights terminating at NRT with no continuation to another Asian point that they could use to add more 5th freedom tag-ons?

One problem with such 5th freedom tag-ons is that it's difficult to offer the most attractive departure times for the local market, which usually means 5th freedom carriers get mostly the lowest-yield traffic that's more sensitive to price than schedule.


User currently offlineMcMax From United States of America, joined Dec 2005, 305 posts, RR: 0
Reply 14, posted (4 years 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 15 hours ago) and read 12187 times:

With this whole saga seeming to come to a conclusion now, I'm left with a few (potentially inaccurate) conclusions:

1) The Japanese press, along with the worldwide press, are infinitely manipulable. There was a period where there was almost a daily news article in the Japanese press which said that JL was defecting to Skyteam, that DL and JL had reached an agreement already, that JL would start a HND-AMS service after the deal was done, etc. As a result, major news outlets all over the world (NYTimes, FT, USAToday) picked up the stories. I think commavia had made a post yesterday regarding Delta's retention of Dentsu, a major Japanese PR firm, and some speculation that Dentsu had planted inaccurate media stories about JL defecting to DL in order to sway public and government opinion. Perhaps I'm naive about this, but I always thought reporters were supposed to verify information from sources before reporting it. I guess in this 24/7 news world, accuracy is not as important anymore.

2) Japan and its institutions will always be unpredictable and somewhat of a mystery. My impression of Japan had always been one of an organized, precise and honor-bound society. However, given the daily public tug-of-war, and the 180-degree about-face in JL's alliance decision after weeks of pro-DL statements from Japanese bureaucrats, it makes me wonder how much we, from a Western perspective, will ever understand about the inner workings of Japanese society. That's what was fun about reading the bickering going on back and forth on A.net these weeks--many of each side's promoters and detractors claiming to know exactly what JL, ETIC and the Japanese government were going to do.

3) AA management is not as incompetent as many people propound (and to which I sometimes believe myself). I read many posts about how awful AA management was in letting JL get away, and that AA's strategy of threatening to oppose ATI for JL/DL to the bitter end was a "sore loser" strategy. Was that attitude and bravado potentially upsetting and offensive to JL and Japanese society? Probably. Was it a last ditch attempt at retrieving JL from Skyteam when the financials wouldn't support it? Perhaps. But apparently, that strategy did play a significant role in convincing the new JL management to seriously consider whether ATI would be granted to DL/JL without major concessions. AA management's posturing succeeded in casting a doubt over an important component of JL's basis for wanting to switch to DL. I think we have to give credit where credit is due.

4) I hope oneworld (and BA and AA especially) see this JL saga as the wake-up call it should be. Among the alliances, oneworld seems to be the least cooperative, where it's almost a "each-man-for-his-own" attitude. Hopefully, BA will stop being as protective of LHR and its own bottom line (remember how BA lost swiss?), and will be willing to give something up for the good of the alliance. I hope AA realizes its current strategy of being significantly dependent on other airlines for its presence in a large section of the world (e.g., Asia, much of Europe) places it at a huge risk of losing its lift in the blink of an eye.



De minimis non curat lex tamen ego curao
User currently offlinecommavia From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 11840 posts, RR: 62
Reply 15, posted (4 years 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 14 hours ago) and read 12146 times:

Quoting McMax (Reply 14):
My impression of Japan had always been one of an organized, precise and honor-bound society. However, given the daily public tug-of-war, and the 180-degree about-face in JL's alliance decision after weeks of pro-DL statements from Japanese bureaucrats, it makes me wonder how much we, from a Western perspective, will ever understand about the inner workings of Japanese society.

Japanese culture and society are structure around fundamentally different ideological constructs than the U.S.

In the U.S., the focus that consumes most of the attention of politicians and business leaders alike is economic growth. In Japan, the focus has been and always will be on full employment. Those might seem interchangeable, but they're not. Japanese culture values employment above all else, even if it means deficit spending by government or less-attractive returns for banks and corporations. And, on that point, Japan also differs dramatically from the West in that, in many cases, the banks - in practice - are the corporations, in the sense that many of Japan's largest and most influential companies are locked into intertwining financial relationships (through shareholdings, cross-equity alliances and even familial and aristocratic connections) with some of the nation's largest and most influential financial organizations and banking corporations.

Quoting McMax (Reply 14):
AA management is not as incompetent as many people propound

Very true.

Quoting McMax (Reply 14):
I hope oneworld (and BA and AA especially) see this JL saga as the wake-up call it should be. Among the alliances, oneworld seems to be the least cooperative, where it's almost a "each-man-for-his-own" attitude.

I think that if you see AA-BA finally get antitrust immunity, and AA-JL then also get antitrust immunity, those two things alone will lead to a dramatically reinvigorated oneworld. The fundamental crux of the alliance has been and always will be AA and BA - and solidifying that relationship around an antitrust-immunized joint venture would do wonders for the alliance overall.


User currently offlineJacobin777 From United States of America, joined Sep 2004, 14968 posts, RR: 59
Reply 16, posted (4 years 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 14 hours ago) and read 12102 times:

Quoting McMax (Reply 14):

1) The Japanese press, along with the worldwide press, are infinitely manipulable. There was a period where there was almost a daily news article in the Japanese press which said that JL was defecting to Skyteam, that DL and JL had reached an agreement already, that JL would start a HND-AMS service after the deal was done, etc. As a result, major news outlets all over the world (NYTimes, FT, USAToday) picked up the stories. I think commavia had made a post yesterday regarding Delta's retention of Dentsu, a major Japanese PR firm, and some speculation that Dentsu had planted inaccurate media stories about JL defecting to DL in order to sway public and government opinion. Perhaps I'm naive about this, but I always thought reporters were supposed to verify information from sources before reporting it. I guess in this 24/7 news world, accuracy is not as important anymore.

Truth be told, I think it was an "end" decision by JL management to go with OneWorld once they realised how difficult it would have been to get ATI-something which many here on A.net were stating but ostensibly neither the previous JL management nor the Japanese Govt. was taking into consideration.

Quoting McMax (Reply 14):
3) AA management is not as incompetent as many people propound (and to which I sometimes believe myself). I read many posts about how awful AA management was in letting JL get away, and that AA's strategy of threatening to oppose ATI for JL/DL to the bitter end was a "sore loser" strategy.

I do fault AA MAAnagement to a certain degree. They were a bit too lackadaisical with their approach. They should have made JL more important in their network. AA new from as far back as Oct/Nov. 2008 that DL was wooing JL.

Quoting McMax (Reply 14):
Hopefully, BA will stop being as protective of LHR and its own bottom line (remember how BA lost swiss?), and will be willing to give something up for the good of the alliance. I hope AA realizes its current strategy of being significantly dependent on other airlines for its presence in a large section of the world (e.g., Asia, much of Europe) places it at a huge risk of losing its lift in the blink of an eye.

1) BA and IB are merging.
2) BA and AA have been working for years on getting ATI-and now should be getting it soon.
3)BA and JL now will integrate their services more and are applying for ATI.
4)BA and QF already have JSA between them-which was just renewed the past week IIRC.



"Up the Irons!"
User currently offlineOA412 From United States of America, joined Dec 2000, 5351 posts, RR: 25
Reply 17, posted (4 years 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 14 hours ago) and read 12078 times:

Quoting commavia (Reply 12):
United's hubs - especially SFO - are far better positioned to handle traffic flows to Asia than any Delta hub. San Francisco not only has a massive local market (probably one of the biggest of any U.S. metro area), but it's also in a perfect geographic location. They also have Chicago. The best shot Delta has is Seattle, and to a lesser extent JFK and Atlanta. Given that choice, I'd take United's network and hub structure any day of the week.

I know you said hubs, however SEA is actually better positioned as an Asian gateway for many US cities than any other US West Coast gateway/hub.



Hughes Airwest - Top Banana In The West
User currently offlineMcMax From United States of America, joined Dec 2005, 305 posts, RR: 0
Reply 18, posted (4 years 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 14 hours ago) and read 12053 times:

Quoting commavia (Reply 15):
I think that if you see AA-BA finally get antitrust immunity, and AA-JL then also get antitrust immunity, those two things alone will lead to a dramatically reinvigorated oneworld. The fundamental crux of the alliance has been and always will be AA and BA - and solidifying that relationship around an antitrust-immunized joint venture would do wonders for the alliance overall.
Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 16):
1) BA and IB are merging.
2) BA and AA have been working for years on getting ATI-and now should be getting it soon.
3)BA and JL now will integrate their services more and are applying for ATI.
4)BA and QF already have JSA between them-which was just renewed the past week IIRC.

Yes, oneworld (commavia, how did you bold the "one"?) has historically had BA-AA at its crux. And, solidifying that relationship will certainly and dramatically improve oneworld's fortunes. Yes, the BA-IB merger looks like it is coming to fruition. And, BA will apply for ATI with JL. And, yes, BA and QF have had a long-standing JSA between the UK and Australia. However, one of the key players has been omitted from this discussion--CX.

Despite the A.net rumors, I don't see CX leaving oneworld anytime soon. It has a good relationship with AA through its codeshare. However, BA and CX don't really cooperate. CX and QF are basically rivals. If you look at the oneworld press release regarding JL staying, it touts AA, BA and QF as being able to offer the expertise to help JL. CX is mentioned in passing. However, I believe there certainly is a risk CX could be the next "JL" in wanting to leave oneworld, especially given its complicated cross-shareholding with CA. And, LA could be up for play potentially if TACA's investment in LA happens. It just has always appeared to me that Star's and Skyteam's members seem pretty dedicated to their respective alliances. I've just never gotten that same feeling about oneworld.

What I would like to see is an alliance strategy focusing on real cooperation between its members (e.g., codesharing, reciprocal lounge access, unified operations in one terminal) (as opposed to the press releases that tout that oneworld members are the most profitable, and deliver more value to each of its members.



De minimis non curat lex tamen ego curao
User currently offlinecommavia From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 11840 posts, RR: 62
Reply 19, posted (4 years 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 14 hours ago) and read 12024 times:

Quoting OA412 (Reply 17):
however SEA is actually better positioned as an Asian gateway for many US cities than any other US West Coast gateway/hub.

Better positioned geographically, but not economically. SEA could never support the level of nonstop service to Asia that SFO can.

Quoting McMax (Reply 18):
commavia, how did you bold the "one"?

Add a "b" in brackets [] in front of what you want to bold, and a "/b" in brackets [] after what you want to bold.

Quoting McMax (Reply 18):
However, one of the key players has been omitted from this discussion--CX.

Once the U.S. and Hong Kong sign a truly Open Skies deal, I would hope that AA and JAL would try and add Cathay to their ATI/JV. Not sure if JAL would want to - but that would create quite a powerhouse across the Pacific. Just as ICN is the preeminent hub (in terms of facilities, convenience and expansion capabilities) in Northeast Asia, HKG is the preeminent hub in East Asia and China - it provides an incredible connecting point into Mainland China and to Southeast Asia.

Quoting McMax (Reply 18):
Despite the A.net rumors, I don't see CX leaving oneworld anytime soon.

Me either. They're a premium airline, with a hub in a global and regional business center, that caters to high-yielding business traffic. That fits in perfectly with oneworld, where that description could be applied to almost all the existing members - certainly AA, BA, and JAL, and to a lesser extent IB, QF and even LA.

Quoting McMax (Reply 18):
However, BA and CX don't really cooperate.

?

CX codeshares on tons of BA flights in and out of London to over a dozen cities throughout Europe. Similarly, BA codeshares on CX flights beyond HKG to 4 Asian cities it doesn't serve with its own aircraft.

Quoting McMax (Reply 18):
CX and QF are basically rivals.

That's true. In fact, CX and QF probably have the most "adversarial" (or at least, "least cooperative") relationship of any two members in oneworld. Those two don't really seem to have much interest in working with each other.

Although - truth be told - the same could be said of members of other alliances, too - where two members are really more competitors than partners. Singapore and Thai immediately come to mind.

Quoting McMax (Reply 18):
What I would like to see is an alliance strategy focusing on real cooperation between its members (e.g., codesharing, reciprocal lounge access, unified operations in one terminal)

To a certain extend, that is happening. They are co-locating in lots of places, coordinating terminals where possible, and they do offer reciprocal lounge access now for premium frequent flyers of all member airlines' FF programs (except on itineraries wholly within North America). However, yes, I agree - they need to be doing more of this.


User currently offlineCentrair From Japan, joined Jan 2005, 3598 posts, RR: 20
Reply 20, posted (4 years 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 11951 times:

Quoting McMax (Reply 14):
2) Japan and its institutions will always be unpredictable and somewhat of a mystery. My impression of Japan had always been one of an organized, precise and honor-bound society. However, given the daily public tug-of-war, and the 180-degree about-face in JL's alliance decision after weeks of pro-DL statements from Japanese bureaucrats, it makes me wonder how much we, from a Western perspective, will ever understand about the inner workings of Japanese society. That's what was fun about reading the bickering going on back and forth on A.net these weeks--many of each side's promoters and detractors claiming to know exactly what JL, ETIC and the Japanese government were going to do.

You are very astute! What is really funny is that we who work in the Japanese bureaucracy and society don't understand it either. You should hear the with swears and name calling in my office whenever a policy, however small, changes from day to day. Or we hear about it in the news before it comes to our boxes from on high only to be recended in 24 hours.

The day we understand the culture ourselves, we might just be in line for success again.

On to the topic at hand.
I just have to say. As someone who doesn't live in Tokyo and doesn't actually enjoy going there, it is important to realize that only DL/Skyteam provides good international service from outlying areas. I can fly NGO-DTW-ORD and back easier than NGO-NRT-ORD. The connections are clean and best of all, because there are so many non-Americans on the NGO-DTW segment the lines in DTW are short. I spend more time waiting for my luggage than going through customs. (wife and kids have to wait for almost 30 minutes).

I am hoping though that under ATI/JV with AA/JL, they can build off-Tokyo routes that benefit not only the Japanese but American customer. AA served NGO until they didn't get a contract with Toyota but we had considered flying them due to the A/C being newer (with AVOD) and straight shot to an airport close to my family without transfers. JL served NGO-LAX years ago and it was possible to make good connections to the rest of the US from there. But now that is gone.

Even though Tokyo is a money pot compared to the rest of Japan, if you provide service to the right destinations with the right degree, the Japanese will take it. Right now we just don't have choices except NRT or XXX-HND. ..train to NRT-YYY.

The real competition is just starting. If we though JL was a good soap opera, just wait for the FM/MU merger to finish and the fight between the three carriers begins. Also look out for the KE/DL ATI/JV. That should really make things fun. East Asian Aviation is fun again!



Yes...I am not a KIX fan. Let's Japanese Aviation!
User currently offlineMaverickM11 From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 17786 posts, RR: 46
Reply 21, posted (4 years 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 11906 times:

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 2):
So once again, DL has every legitimate right to say it is the largest airline to Asia.

Nope because...

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 2):
JL+AA 391M ASMs or slightly smaller than UA and significantly smaller than DL.

...thankfully you've drilled into all of our heads that it's not ASMs but revenue that defines size 
Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 4):
I would agree w/ most of your statement except for your lack of faith in DL's ability to restructure NRT.

Restructure as in turn it into a spoke

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 8):
First, the NRT operation has been built as a connecting complex... there has been no desire to serve the local market "off complex".

Essentially maximizing hub costs without much in additional revenue...it's essentially a really expensive shuffle of the deck halfway around the world. A hub works because the high costs of "banks" is offset by the higher revenue premium you get from the local market paying for the hub's schedule 'breadth and depth' of destinations, which will not be flying DL without a local Japanese partner--hence the JL soap opera. It's really basic airline economics.

Quoting commavia (Reply 12):
I don't either. Manila is one that might actually make sense as a nonstop from the U.S. It is, indeed, a big market.

A US carrier will likely need a very large plane with very little front cabin first

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 11):
but there is no indication yet that DL is giving up its beyond Japan services.

CAN, SGN, reduced capacity elsewhere, airline economics 101, what more evidence do you need?

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 11):
The NRT local market may be shrinking but the value of flow traffic over NRT will shrink even faster.

Yes. Especially on US carrier metal.



E pur si muove -Galileo
User currently offlineMcMax From United States of America, joined Dec 2005, 305 posts, RR: 0
Reply 22, posted (4 years 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 11879 times:

Quoting commavia (Reply 19):
HKG is the preeminent hub in East Asia and China - it provides an incredible connecting point into Mainland China and to Southeast Asia.

I don't know if I would agree with that wholly. If I'm flying from the U.S. and want to go to China on oneworld (look, I did it!), HKG is not going to be my first choice, notwithstanding CX's excellent premium services. HKG requires me to backtrack as it is too far south to get back to PEK, PVG or even XIY. NRT is going to be my choice as it is more route-efficient. However, if I'm heading to SE Asia (e.g., BKK, SIN, KUL), or even TPE or MNL, HKG works nicely.

Quoting commavia (Reply 19):
CX codeshares on tons of BA flights in and out of London to over a dozen cities throughout Europe. Similarly, BA codeshares on CX flights beyond HKG to 4 Asian cities it doesn't serve with its own aircraft.

Yes, they codeshare, but it's not one of those deep relationships. Granted, ATI isn't possible, but it has never seemed to me that BA is considered irreplaceable for CX. If CX jumped ship to Star, it could achieve the same access through LH. What I'm referring to is that co-dependent/inter-dependent relationship which gives neither the incentive to dump the other. Look at what happened with AA/JL. AA and JL had a long-standing codeshare relationship. But, JL thought it could replace AA with DL because it didn't have one of those "you screw me, you screw yourself" relationships with AA (granted ATI wasn't possible either). I just don't think mere codesharing ensures long-term relationships. I think that all oneworld members need to deepen their relationships to ensure the JL fiasco doesn't happen again--the question becomes, do all of the members want to do this.

Quoting commavia (Reply 19):
and they do offer reciprocal lounge access now for premium frequent flyers of all member airlines' FF programs (except on itineraries wholly within North America).

I guess I should have stated it differently--as ExecPlat, I have already have access to all oneworld member lounges.** However, as a mere Admiral's Club members, it gets me no reciprocal access (except for QF clubs). If I was a UA Red Carpet Club member, I can get into many of the other Star lounges with no other traveling requirements. Additionally, reciprocal upgrading privileges would be a welcome benefit, too.

** n.b. With the exception of BA, where I've been denied entry in LHR, and told to go to the Admiral's Club because the BA Lounge was full. This is another one of those BA things I was alluding to in earlier posts--in terms of importance, BA ranks 1, 2 and 3 in its own mind. I speculate oneworld is an evil necessity, and BA will try to minimize whatever benefits it actually provides to other members' customers.



De minimis non curat lex tamen ego curao
User currently offlineWN700Driver From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 23, posted (4 years 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 12 hours ago) and read 11803 times:

Quoting commavia (Reply 3):
It strikes me as a bit ironic that some are now telling the AA "fans" to slow down with their "gloating" and "celebration," when I consider how some of the Delta "fans" were acting just a few weeks ago - actively commenting on how bad this was for AA, how this could mean the end of oneworld as an alliance, etc. The reaction then - by a different crew - seemed far more like "gloating" to me than the average reaction now.

Agreed. And though I always enjoy seeing people act surprised when the conditions upon which they became so presumptuous are altered, this is hardly over. AA fan I am, but I cannot kid myself into think that they are out of the woods.

Quoting mayor (Reply 9):

Because now they have to try and work with an airline that was willing to threaten them to get their way. Doesn't actually bode well for a good relationship, does it?

And what was different WRT the DL offer? And before you pop off with a quick response, really think about that. Keep in mind that the Japanese see things a little differently at times. What looks to us like a Huge carrot, might appear to them to be a veiled threat in and of itself.

To Wit

I see you are in deep financial trouble. I offer you what is equal to your income, as a second income, if you do me a few favors now and then. I then make sure that you know perfectly well that your only other options involve a great bit of heartburn at the least, and tremendous danger at the worst. Heck, I may even "contrast" my offer to the threats you are receiving elsewhere. I know you have bills to pay, and I make sure that my offer is a no brainer. OR ELSE. . .

In the end, it boils down to "join me, or deal with that. . ."

Now that analogy is a bit oversimplified, so don't bother pointing that out; I already know. But the... implication is there nonetheless, just with a lot more subtlety, (dare I say class?) than what AA proposed.


User currently offlineocracoke From United States of America, joined Jan 2008, 690 posts, RR: 1
Reply 24, posted (4 years 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 12 hours ago) and read 11785 times:

Quoting commavia (Reply 7):
But HKG, ICN, PEK and PVG - absolutely no reason why those need to be linked to NRT at all.


The one reason I can think of is for slot protection.
In the short term, since USA airlines will be alloted only 25% of the NRT slots, it might be cheaper for DL to keep those routes and lose a little money on them, then to turn them back in and have AA grab them, and then potentially lose even move money competing against new AA NRT-USA routes. Under the JL/AA plan, JL is the one parking planes, but AA cannot use the Japanese slots to fly new routes. So JL/AA are somewhat stuck. One side has the planes, and the other side has the slots, and if DL doesn't give the one with the planes any new slots, then JL/AA probably can't grow the alliance as well/as quickly as they would like. There will be a massive shrinkage of JL, and unless AA gets some more of the USA slots, AA can't help by picking up the slack.

In the long run, if JL gets healthy again (only time will tell), this stratgey won't last too long for DL, because JL/AA will have passed DL by without even looking back. But by that time, DL should have found a way to use those slots for new/developing marktes (deep China, India? dont know), and have developed the rest via non-stops from home markets, or with a stronger DL/KE venture.

In short, DL keeping those slots temporarly throws a wrench into JL/AA plans. The more time DL has to figure out what DL is going to do before JL/AA start hitting on all cylinders, the better for DL.


25 MAH4546 : Let's remember two key facts here: 1) JAL is parking 747s. Eight of them are domestic planes; the other 28 are used on long-haul, but a significant n
26 commavia : This is no doubt what Delta will do - in the short-run. They will maintain the status quo at Narita, at least in the interim, because at the moment t
27 MAH4546 : U.S. slots can only be used by U.S. carriers, and are redistributed by DOT under Open Skies. It will not be possible for AA and JAL to interchange sl
28 ocracoke : When AA parked the A300, did AA have to pull planes off of other routes to cover those A300? When JL parks the 747s, will JL have to pull planes off
29 MAH4546 : Where capacity is being cut is the issue here. If JAL is parking 747s, and capacity is being cut on holiday routes to Hawaii, Australia and Rome (and
30 ha763 : No. They still have 28 744 in the fleet with a schedule that only needs half of that. The only 744 routes in the current schedule are FCO (3x weekly)
31 Post contains images FXramper : I guess myself and Mark were the only believers that JL would say no to DL and Skyteam. If so facto, I'm glad they are continuing relations with OneWo
32 Jacobin777 : A few problems I see there.. 1-Star is getting quite overcrowded. 2-I don't see how SQ and CX would fit into the same alliance....it could happen, bu
33 MAH4546 : Absolutely not. The point of the ATI is for the two to coordinate and revenue share. This can't happen unless both are flying to North America. There
34 AirGabon : For the moment JL and AA will be just operational partners.... JL still needs a strong financial partner. So I am sure that DL/AF have not said there
35 MAH4546 : There is no "for the moment." With JAL applying for antitrust with both American and British Airways, its is pretty much sealed. Antitrust arrangment
36 Speedbird2155 : Lounge access is always subject to capacity restrictions. There have been various times when the BA lounges are simply too full to allow more in and
37 WorldTraveler : but just because JL can't make money to those destinations doesn't mean no one can. Do you realize that average fares between NRT and GUM are higher
38 cws818 : Except that JL has a larger pool of NRT frequent flyers. Excluding CAN, KHH, SGN, of course... But what about from Japan? Who said DL isn't? You keep
39 Post contains links MAH4546 : This quote is relevant: JAL Bids Sayonara To OneWorld & Konichiwa SkyTeam (by SeaMeFly Jan 16 2010 in Civil Aviation)[Edited 2010-02-10 02:20:48]
40 Post contains images cws818 : The times, they are a-changin'  
41 WorldTraveler : which don't matter if you can't put people on planes... again, DL will serve twice as many US gateways from Japan as AA and JL will combined. DL's po
42 cws818 : Not all passengers ex-NRT are going to the United States. For those that are a JAL Mileage Bank account might be persuasive when booking transpacific
43 cws818 : Once again, nobody discounts that DL is the largest carrier. Whose comments are you attempting to refute?
44 777STL : For the moment JL and AA will be just operational partners.... JL still needs a strong financial partner. So I am sure that DL/AF have not said there
45 Post contains images commavia : Nobody suggested that. No, it shows that bankrupt, restructuring JAL wants to move away from competing in low-yielding resort markets and focus more
46 Post contains images peanuts : I think the reference is mainly to the "drive-by" posters on here. You know, the poster just stopping by to drop a useless one liner comment without
47 mayor : Well, for one thing, AA's threat was done in public. How could an offer of help be construed as a threat? For that matter, AA did the same thing, at
48 MaverickM11 : Uh huh. And Obama is going to shut down GM. JL has an implicit government guarantee that DL does not have, let alone at NRT. JL would have shrank in
49 Post contains images MaverickM11 : Their last best adds of TPE/CAN/SLC/PDX have been dodgy at best. I don't envision them looking at those results and thinking they need longer, lower
50 LDVAviation : It is Delta's position as a "global powerhouse" that is already getting them into trouble. Anti-trust seems to have been the big issue with JAL? Delt
51 Post contains images mayor : Why don't you throw it back out, again.   Perhaps only 1/3 of the fleet really needs it. No use in doing the -9s, is there if they're all to be park
52 avek00 : 1. There's no such thing as "overcrowded" in the context of Star Alliance. Period. 2. SQ and CX have engaged in significant commercial cooperation in
53 LJ : I recall that Skyteam lost CO (and in he process lost CM). The question is how will Skyteam react. Will they still allow KE to cooperate with JL or n
54 jfk777 : Why would Cathay want to join Star ? Thai, Singapore, Air China, ANA, Asiana and Air New Zealand are Sar alliance members in the Pacific. ITs a bit c
55 avek00 : What do you mean by crowded? This is Star Alliance we're talking about, so there's never such a thing as "crowded".
56 WorldTraveler : the diference is that shrinkage in a DL/JL relationship would benefit one or the other because both overlap.... and they could indeed coordinate thei
57 BOACCunard : It depends on the member. CO left SkyTeam. MX left Star. Obviously neither of these felt too dedicated. Different members have different levels of de
58 Post contains links mdavies06 : CX and SQ are more like EK, QR and VS, they shouldn't have been in an alliance. They get their bread and butter from F and C flyers and they are not v
59 Post contains images MaverickM11 : DL will shrink regardless; in fact it'll likely shrink more without a Japanese partner than it would if it did wind up with JL. JL/AA get the benefit
60 avek00 : Your assertion might be true of SQ, but definitely is not the case for CX.
61 JAL : Hopefully, with the help of OneWorld, JAL can be reborn stronger than ever before!
62 commavia : As I said before - I think in the original section of this thread - I think that's a fair point. But, alas, I still find it unlikely. Once JAL goes i
63 TeamAmerica : Perhaps your thinking is backwards, at least from the Japanese perspective. It doesn't seem to have occurred to anyone posting here that JL is a flag
64 mayor : Not so much lost them as held the door for them while they left. CO was always a reluctant member of Skyteam, so it didn't make much difference, anyw
65 LAXdude1023 : Im pretty sure CO wanted to leave long before they actually did but couldnt due to the Golden Share. If Skyteam didnt care, NW could have let CO out
66 Sydscott : Two points about CX and QF; 1. It is quite well known that QF and CX don't really like one another and QF's desire to avoid putting pax, especially p
67 Post contains images Jacobin777 : With both of them investing and competing more and more in China, I don't expect it to see it happening anytime soon. Er, that's what I said.. That's
68 MAH4546 : When the necessary open skies agreements are complete in the future, a combined CX-AA-JL will be quite the force trans-Pacific, and, most significant
69 aaway : I'd even add a third point...though in some respect targeting differing economy pax, QF's Jetstar franchise represents a competitive linchpin for S.E
70 Sydscott : I disagree. I think that the JQ/QF hub at Singapore represents; 1. A Southeast Asian transfer point for OW which complements HKG in Central Asia and
71 Post contains links OP3000 : Here's a thorough market analysis of what the JAL-AA partnership could mean:
72 MAH4546 : The link is not there. You probably placed the link with the rotated caret signs around it, which the site doesn't recognize anymore.
73 WorldTraveler : very well put.... but it also reinforces that w/o an equity stake, JL is free to pursue other options in the future... and a changes in equity DO ope
74 avek00 : An opinion rooted in fact. Star Alliance is intended to serve as a platform for cooperation among its member carriers. Beyond specified minima (e.g.,
75 aaway : Regarding point #1 - I would agree with you if JQ actually represented OW interests. As it stands currently, JQ is more a projection of QFs' ambition
76 Post contains images Jacobin777 : While I do understand your point, there eventually becomes a "law of diminishing returns". I think we're starting to see that with Star as there is a
77 PlanesNTrains : In other words, if a route ex-NRT works for DL, then Delta is the dominant force. If it route ex-NRT doesn't work for Delta, it just means that they
78 LAXdude1023 : Yeah, thats how the reasoning goes. Under its current leadership, Im scared you might be right. AA has a huge opprotunity with Transpac and Transatla
79 mdavies06 : What I meant is the level of codesharing as seen by the number of hub to hub codesharing they have with partner airlines. CX needs to codeshare more
80 MAH4546 : No, it is not staying. When JAL and British Airways get ATI, the codeshares with Air France and Alitalia will have to end. It's not even much of a ch
81 BOACCunard : Surely untangling an immunized joint venture is not such an easy task. Moving from one alliance to another is one thing (and I was expect JL to do so
82 avek00 : The Star Alliance members carriers DO cooperate with each other according to the minimum alliance requirements. And beyond that, various carriers do
83 Jacobin777 : I dont' think anyone is saying codesharing and ATI is the "be-all and end-all" of an alliance cooperation, but there is a reason as to why carriers s
84 ha763 : JAL intends to keep all codeshares, including the AF and AZ codeshares even with the ATI. I guess we'll just have to wait and see what happens with a
85 WN700Driver : Yes, it would, in fairness.
86 Post contains links aaway : Relative. By same the same token, HKG would be more convenient for travel to CAN, SZX, XMN, NNG. Proximity to the Pearl River Delta region is attract
87 MAH4546 : Again, not possible. If JAL and BA get ATI, the codeshares with AF and AZ will have to come to an end. It is not really up for debate. JAL can choose
88 ha763 : I really would like to hear more about your reasons for why a JAL/BA ATI cannot have a JAL/AF/AZ codeshare. I am really having a hard time figuring o
89 mdavies06 : I thought that there is currently no EU-Japan Open Skies agreement under discussion. If there is such an agreement in place and JL/IB/BA/AY apply joi
90 MAH4546 : Someone who is more verse in the technical issues can broaden this, but the short story is that ATI would allow codeshare partners such as AF and AZ
91 aa1818 : They have squandered opportunities in the past, but to be honest, I think they fought so hard for JAL that they wouldn't let this chance slip away. T
92 Post contains links DFWEagle : American and JAL have filed their application for antitrust immunity with DOT -: http://www.prnewswire.com/news-relea...r-antitrust-immunity-84264747.
93 BigGSFO : I am glad to hear they jumped right on this. So the application is for North America and Asia. Does this mean there would potentially be an AA code o
94 Byrdluvs747 : Will it be "metal neutral" from the pax perspective in regards to choosing seats, or using SWU's? Unfortunately, I doubt it will.
95 MAH4546 : Yes, it will most likely be exactly that.
96 DFWEagle : It means that such code-shares would be ready-approved by the USA and Japan, but these types of code-share would also require approval of the third c
97 ha763 : This is where I disagree with you. You would not share nor allow access to proprietary fare or sales data with a codeshare partner. Doing so without
98 MAH4546 : We will just agree to disagree, because I'm not verse enough to fill you in on why its not possible/logical for the codeshare to continue. I assure y
99 WorldTraveler : Mark is right.... regionwide ATI/JVs cannot and will not have codeshare partners covering the same region. Aside from the legality -which isn't neces
100 Incitatus : Not necessarily. JL may compensate by increasing cooperation with BA. I suspect we will see AF's share of Japan-Europe traffic fall considerably.
101 FFlyerWorld : So you think the Japanese traveler(s) (who love France) will prefer to fly BA to LHR and transfer for CDG? Highly doubtful when their other choice is
102 DFWEagle : No, they would fly on the nonstop NRT-CDG flight which would be operated under the BA/JL joint venture. He means JAL will replace codeshares from CDG
103 Gemuser : Just can't see it being that automatic. QF/BA have been in what you call an ATI relationship sine 1949 and it was renewed just last week, yet QF/AF c
104 MAH4546 : But Air France does not fly between the EU and Australia, so it is irrelevant. AF does fly between the EU and Japan.
105 Gemuser : Explain please, you conclusion is not obvious from the fact presented. Gemuser
106 avek00 : With all due respect, this is simply not true. In the context of the Star JV, there are no less than 3 instances where participants to the JV are mai
107 mdavies06 : The benefit to JL of maintaining the current codesharing with AF and BA at the same time outweights an ATI with just BA/OW. JL decided to stay with A
108 DFWEagle : I believe JAL code-shares with AF between CDG and only 12 points in Europe (BCN, TXL, CPH, DUS, HAM, LYS, MUC, NCE, PRG, ARN, WAW and IST). Looking a
109 teme82 : AY and JL have rather large codesahre agreement. All flights to CDG from HEL has JL code and same for AMS, FRA, MUC etc... but not to LHR.
110 jfk777 : With JAL staying in OW and AA/JAL applying for ATI OW has finally reached a maturity of greater cooperation among most of its members. Along with rec
111 WorldTraveler : but we don't know how long that will last... Virgin codeshares duplicate CO's service... it's probably only a matter of allowing the codeshares to ex
112 avek00 : For the time being it's live arrangement with no indications of being sclaed back or discontinued. I'm not referring to any codesharing between UA an
113 WorldTraveler : agree.. but I still doubt it will survive as is... either VS will need to move up in the alliance and become a larger part or be removed... one off r
114 JAL : Who else should OneWorld recruit? Philippines Airlines or one of the Chinese airlines?
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