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UA's Proposed SFO-CAN Service  
User currently offlineUnited Airline From Hong Kong, joined Jan 2001, 9214 posts, RR: 15
Posted (4 years 10 months 1 week 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 8432 times:

UA had plans to start SFO-CAN with a B 747-400 sometime ago. This was put on hold for a year. Will they start service anytime soon?

Will UA take some of its B 747-400s out of the desert?

37 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineUALORD From United States of America, joined Jan 2008, 73 posts, RR: 0
Reply 1, posted (4 years 10 months 1 week 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 8376 times:

I have always wondered about that cause I saw that they said something about that service but it never happened.

User currently offlineOA412 From United States of America, joined Dec 2000, 5374 posts, RR: 25
Reply 2, posted (4 years 10 months 1 week 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 8365 times:

I believe that it was to be on a 772 and as far as I know it is still on hold.

Quoting United Airline (Thread starter):
Will UA take some of its B 747-400s out of the desert?

I'm fairly certain you asked this same question just a few months ago. No need to keep asking the same question as I'm sure the answer hasn't changed much since you last asked.



Hughes Airwest - Top Banana In The West
User currently offlineLAXintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 26174 posts, RR: 50
Reply 3, posted (4 years 10 months 1 week 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 8299 times:

Service start was defered till July 1, 2010.

Very soon UA will need to make a decision if it will fly this year or not.



From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
User currently offlineUnited Airline From Hong Kong, joined Jan 2001, 9214 posts, RR: 15
Reply 4, posted (4 years 10 months 1 week 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 8004 times:

What about LAX-PVG?

I am sure they will take some aircraft out of the desert if traffic picks up again


User currently offlineAADC10 From United States of America, joined Nov 2004, 2103 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (4 years 10 months 1 week 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 7945 times:

UA will probably request to defer SFO-CAN for another year and it will probably be granted.There has not been a rush to snap up US's PHL-PEK that they abandoned and there is even less interest in taking a route to CAN.

Quoting United Airline (Reply 4):
What about LAX-PVG?

What about it? UA applied and was rejected. It was always a longshot as DOT had a bizarre preference for East Coast to China routes. They would have to apply to take US's route authority or perhaps try to transfer IAD-PEK to LAX-PVG. Since UA already has the most US to China route authorities, US's failed route would probably go to AA or CO.


User currently offlinemah4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 33289 posts, RR: 71
Reply 6, posted (4 years 10 months 1 week 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 7793 times:

Quoting AADC10 (Reply 5):
What about it? UA applied and was rejected. It was always a longshot as DOT had a bizarre preference for East Coast to China routes. They would have to apply to take US's route authority or perhaps try to transfer IAD-PEK to LAX-PVG. Since UA already has the most US to China route authorities, US's failed route would probably go to AA or CO.

21 weekly U.S.-China frequencies - none of which any airline has asked for - become available on March 25th. Another 14 become available on March 25, 2011, and yet another 14 become available on March 25, 2011.

Not to mention all the unused 2009 frequencies that DOT has from US Airways, or the dormant frequencies being held by Delta and United.



a.
User currently offlineAADC10 From United States of America, joined Nov 2004, 2103 posts, RR: 0
Reply 7, posted (4 years 10 months 1 week 18 hours ago) and read 7350 times:

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 6):
21 weekly U.S.-China frequencies - none of which any airline has asked for - become available on March 25th. Another 14 become available on March 25, 2011, and yet another 14 become available on March 25, 2011

UA is probably not going to get LAX-PVG unless they start SFO-CAN and no other airline applies for a route. The stupid preference for East Coast to China will probably remain despite the fact that 50% of all demand is from the three West Coast states. I would imagine that AA and CO would be the most likely to get new routes, DL somewhat less likely and UA behind the others, if only because they already have the most flights. Even the airlines that win the flights this year will probably defer them or operate seasonal or limited schedules.

Eventually we may get to the point where no airline applies for a route, as often happens with the Chinese airlines.


User currently offlineFlyPNS1 From United States of America, joined Nov 1999, 6733 posts, RR: 24
Reply 8, posted (4 years 10 months 1 week 18 hours ago) and read 7314 times:

Quoting AADC10 (Reply 7):
UA is probably not going to get LAX-PVG

You're missing the point. The route authorities are available RIGHT NOW and no one has applied for them. UA could apply for LAX-PVG tomorrow and would win.


User currently offlinemah4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 33289 posts, RR: 71
Reply 9, posted (4 years 10 months 1 week 18 hours ago) and read 7294 times:

Quoting AADC10 (Reply 7):

UA is probably not going to get LAX-PVG unless they start SFO-CAN and no other airline applies for a route. The stupid preference for East Coast to China will probably remain despite the fact that 50% of all demand is from the three West Coast states. I would imagine that AA and CO would be the most likely to get new routes, DL somewhat less likely and UA behind the others, if only because they already have the most flights. Even the airlines that win the flights this year will probably defer them or operate seasonal or limited schedules.

Eventually we may get to the point where no airline applies for a route, as often happens with the Chinese airlines.

Again: There are so many unused frequencies that any airline can ask for them. If UA wants LAX-PVG, its theirs! They can have it March 25, 2010. And AA can apply for DFW-PEK and CO can have IAH-PVG, and there will still be unused frequencies left.



a.
User currently offlineUnited1 From United States of America, joined Oct 2003, 6137 posts, RR: 9
Reply 10, posted (4 years 10 months 1 week 17 hours ago) and read 7035 times:

Quoting AADC10 (Reply 7):
Eventually we may get to the point where no airline applies for a route, as often happens with the Chinese airlines.

we are at that point....



Semper Fi - PowerPoint makes us stupid.
User currently offlineFlyDreamliner From United States of America, joined Jan 2006, 2759 posts, RR: 15
Reply 11, posted (4 years 10 months 1 week 17 hours ago) and read 6942 times:

If SEA-PEK works out, we could certainly see a SEA-PVG opened up. In the past AC has used 763ER's from YVR to PVG, DL could do the same using SEA (if it proves a successful China gateway for them) (they have those PVG frequencies from ATL dormant).

In good conditions, UA could open both LAX-PVG and SFO-CAN. In all honesty, CAN is an area that has grown leaps and bounds, yet only has one non-stop to the US. UA has struggled a bit to make Int'l work out of LAX, having to drop HKG.

If (that's a huge if) AA can get their pilots on board for the DFW-PEK, which should have been theirs before, but the pilots' deep-sixed, it could be a real winner, but they won't do anything big like this under they get their ducks in a row with labor.

I am not sure if CO can make a great case for IAH-PVG... it strikes me that the they would not add Asia flight after Asia flight out of EWR and add nothing to IAH, save its lone NRT if they thought the demand was better there. I think someday these could be good 787 routes, though.

As for US ever serving China.... no.



"Let the world change you, and you can change the world"
User currently offlineMaverickM11 From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 17829 posts, RR: 46
Reply 12, posted (4 years 10 months 1 week 16 hours ago) and read 6708 times:

Quoting FlyDreamliner (Reply 11):
. In all honesty, CAN is an area that has grown leaps and bounds, yet only has one non-stop to the US

And even CZ struggles; I honestly don't see any nonstop service to CAN from the US any time soon. It's a bit like the KIX of China, with a much longer stage length.



E pur si muove -Galileo
User currently offlinedeltaL1011man From United States of America, joined Sep 2005, 9700 posts, RR: 15
Reply 13, posted (4 years 10 months 1 week 16 hours ago) and read 6645 times:

Quoting FlyDreamliner (Reply 11):
(they have those PVG frequencies from ATL dormant).

they do but you cant move them around that easy. Plus who says they wont want to bring ATL-PVG back?
If DL wants to start SEA-PVG they can pull from the new pool or move the NRT flights. I always figured they would move NRT-PVG to SEA and run ATL-NRT-PVG like UA did with IAD-PEK this winter, this way Delta wouldn't even have to ask the DOT.



yep.
User currently offlinemah4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 33289 posts, RR: 71
Reply 14, posted (4 years 10 months 1 week 16 hours ago) and read 6622 times:

Quoting deltaL1011man (Reply 13):
they do but you cant move them around that easy.

Yes, you can. Given all the unused frequencies, its a simple matter of filing with DOT. The situation with China frequencies right now is not like Colombia or Brazil.



a.
User currently offlineTranspac787 From United States of America, joined Jul 2007, 3217 posts, RR: 16
Reply 15, posted (4 years 10 months 1 week 16 hours ago) and read 6447 times:

Is there a possibility that DL could apply to restart NRT-CAN??

User currently offlineMaverickM11 From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 17829 posts, RR: 46
Reply 16, posted (4 years 10 months 1 week 15 hours ago) and read 6166 times:

Quoting Transpac787 (Reply 15):
Is there a possibility that DL could apply to restart NRT-CAN??

I assumed DL had a great connection with KE over ICN, but even that is not daily and doesn't connect well with TPAC arrivals, even KE's own metal.



E pur si muove -Galileo
User currently offlinedeltaL1011man From United States of America, joined Sep 2005, 9700 posts, RR: 15
Reply 17, posted (4 years 10 months 1 week 15 hours ago) and read 6076 times:

Quoting Transpac787 (Reply 15):
Is there a possibility that DL could apply to restart NRT-CAN??

I would think so in a round about way. ( the DOT may let them take UA's CAN rights and run XXX-NRT-CAN)
If they wouldn't do that they could always ask for say SEA-PEK and then move the SEA-PEK rights back to NRT-CAN. They could also do the ATL-PVG with a stop in NRT and move the NRT-PVG rights to NRT-CAN.



yep.
User currently offlineRoseFlyer From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 9831 posts, RR: 52
Reply 18, posted (4 years 10 months 1 week 12 hours ago) and read 5104 times:

Quoting United Airline (Reply 4):
What about LAX-PVG?

UA downgraded PVG to 777s from both ORD and SFO. If it can't support a 747 year round from SFO which is a huge international hub for UA, LA is not going to happen. The feed can all go through SFO and the O/D is not enough to support the route.



If you have never designed an airplane part before, let the real designers do the work!
User currently offlinedeltaL1011man From United States of America, joined Sep 2005, 9700 posts, RR: 15
Reply 19, posted (4 years 10 months 1 week 11 hours ago) and read 5063 times:

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 16):
I assumed DL had a great connection with KE over ICN, but even that is not daily and doesn't connect well with TPAC arrivals, even KE's own metal.

DL also codeshares on CZs non-stop LAX-CAN. (and i believe they will send you to PVG then onto CAN on CZ on the days they don't run LAX-CAN.)

Quoting RoseFlyer (Reply 18):


UA downgraded PVG to 777s from both ORD and SFO. If it can't support a 747 year round from SFO which is a huge international hub for UA, LA is not going to happen. The feed can all go through SFO and the O/D is not enough to support the route.

I agree.....IMHO UA should go after IAD-PVG before they worry about LA.



yep.
User currently offlineFlyDreamliner From United States of America, joined Jan 2006, 2759 posts, RR: 15
Reply 20, posted (4 years 10 months 1 week 11 hours ago) and read 4953 times:

Quoting deltaL1011man (Reply 13):
Quoting FlyDreamliner (Reply 11):
(they have those PVG frequencies from ATL dormant).

they do but you cant move them around that easy. Plus who says they wont want to bring ATL-PVG back?
If DL wants to start SEA-PVG they can pull from the new pool or move the NRT flights. I always figured they would move NRT-PVG to SEA and run ATL-NRT-PVG like UA did with IAD-PEK this winter, this way Delta wouldn't even have to ask the DOT.

ATL has incredible connecting feed power, I'm the first to say it, but it has proven itself to be geographically less ideal than other DL hubs and focus cities for Asia service - stage lengths are longer and more people backtrack.

I think we'll see more China go to JFK or SEA before we see it at ATL. The huge buildup of Asia flights at DTW has shown they shifting that way. Before everything had to be ATL. Now - still a ton goes through ATL, but they have other good hubs they are building (like JFK and SEA) and have acquired (DTW, MSP) to find the right place for each region.

Quoting RoseFlyer (Reply 18):
Quoting United Airline (Reply 4):
What about LAX-PVG?

UA downgraded PVG to 777s from both ORD and SFO. If it can't support a 747 year round from SFO which is a huge international hub for UA, LA is not going to happen. The feed can all go through SFO and the O/D is not enough to support the route.

I think as much as anywhere, PVG rises and falls with the economy. As the US economy recovers, we'll see PVG traffic ramp back up again.



"Let the world change you, and you can change the world"
User currently offlineworldtraveler From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 21, posted (4 years 10 months 1 week 11 hours ago) and read 4869 times:

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 6):

21 weekly U.S.-China frequencies - none of which any airline has asked for - become available on March 25th. Another 14 become available on March 25, 2011, and yet another 14 become available on March 25, 2011.

Not to mention all the unused 2009 frequencies that DOT has from US Airways, or the dormant frequencies being held by Delta and United.

correct.. and the US and China have broached the subject of Open Skies.

Given that there is no rush on either side to add capacity, the next prize to be had from a new bilateral is anti-trust immunity and the ability for Chinese carriers to participate in joint ventures. You will likely see the Chinese push for Open Skies soon since the US gov't generally does not allow ATIs/JVs w/ countries with which it does not have Open Skies.

Further, it is also quite likely that there will be a flurry of new route applications to China once the economy picks up, perhaps as soon as 2011, esp. if there is the possibility of operating them under joint ventures.

There are still significant opportunities for US-China service, including adding service to cities outside of PEK and PVG, most of which are effectively under Open Skies now.

You will see further route growth to China in 2011 and beyond.


User currently offlineMarcoPoloWorld From United States of America, joined Mar 2008, 654 posts, RR: 0
Reply 22, posted (4 years 10 months 1 week 9 hours ago) and read 4322 times:

Quoting FlyDreamliner (Reply 20):
ATL has incredible connecting feed power, I'm the first to say it, but it has proven itself to be geographically less ideal than other DL hubs and focus cities for Asia service - stage lengths are longer and more people backtrack.

And that not only applies to transpacific, but to some extent also to transatlantic. From any city north of Atlanta, it is pure backtracking going to Europe, and from cities to the west, Atlanta-to-Europe is a considerable detour. I think posters here are correct in their assessment that Delta's acquisition of Northwest also had to do with diversifying and expanding its hub operations to locations that are either complementary or superior to Atlanta geographically.

Still, New York, Los Angeles, and San Francisco will always be the premier intercontinental gateways of the US, due their combination of geography, demographics, economic composition, and population size. (With Miami playing a special role for the South America market.) Delta has got the New York market well - if not excellently - covered, but their presence at other strategic intercontinental hubs is still deficient. In the meantime, however, the cooptation of the Detroit and Minneapolis hubs will serve as a good bridge as far as Delta intercon ops go.


User currently offlineUnited Airline From Hong Kong, joined Jan 2001, 9214 posts, RR: 15
Reply 23, posted (4 years 10 months 1 week 9 hours ago) and read 4161 times:

Quoting RoseFlyer (Reply 18):
UA downgraded PVG to 777s from both ORD and SFO. If it can't support a 747 year round from SFO which is a huge international hub for UA, LA is not going to happen. The feed can all go through SFO and the O/D is not enough to support the route.

PEK?


User currently offlinemah4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 33289 posts, RR: 71
Reply 24, posted (4 years 10 months 1 week 5 hours ago) and read 3896 times:

Quoting MarcoPoloWorld (Reply 22):
Still, New York, Los Angeles, and San Francisco will always be the premier intercontinental gateways of the US, due their combination of geography, demographics, economic composition, and population size. (With Miami playing a special role for the South America market.)

A special role? MIA sees more international traffic than LAX and Miami-Europe is sees more traffic than SFO-Europe. Not really sure why South America gets basement status. If you want to look it at that way, than it would be LAX, JFK and ORD.

JFK/EWR, LAX and MIA have been and continue to be the permier intercontinental gateways, with SFO, ORD and IAD in the very strong second positions.

[Edited 2010-02-24 23:40:12]


a.
25 worldtraveler : because it is smaller.... MIA generates huge volumes of traffic but most of the revenue is associated w/ deep S. America flying which is considerably
26 deltaL1011man : DTW has (in S10) 23 weekly flights to Asia, ATL has 17 weekly flights to Asia. DTW isn't "that" much larger than ATL for Asia flights. Also from what
27 LAXdude1023 : Overall yes, from ATL no. That being said, the odds of ATL-PVG being really successful were still really low. Even with the same conditions, DTW-PVG
28 deltaL1011man : Its the same(or almost) capacity. DL had 3x weekly 772, KE had daily 744. Now KE will have daily 744 3x weekly 772. DL did go as high as 5x weekly, a
29 LAXdude1023 : In my opinion, I dont think it can. But its all moot until they either start it and it works or they dont start it at all.
30 worldtraveler : ICN is a far larger market from the US than all of China combined. Since this thread is about UA's SFO-CAN service and not DL at ATL, let's start ano
31 deltaL1011man : How did they move it? DL has 5x weekly 777 ATL-PVG. NW has 5x weekly 744 DTW-PVG. DL ends up cutting ATL-PVG and downgrades DTW-PVG from a 744 to 777
32 AADC10 : The route authorities are not available right now. US abandoned PHL-PEK but those frequencies have not been offered for re-bidding. UA and DL are sit
33 LAXdude1023 : I thought PVG was a higher O&D airport overall than ICN? To the US by itself, Im not sure. But I thought PVG overall had more.
34 worldtraveler : In terms of revenue by US carriers, PVG is about 2X larger but US airlines carry a muchhigher percentage of China traffic than they do for China. In t
35 LAXdude1023 : Ahh, I was talking worldwide that I thought PVG was a larger market. From the US, no question ICN is.
36 Post contains images MarcoPoloWorld : You can skew it any way you want to make Miami your top airport, but in terms of intercontinental service, the cities that I just mentioned rule. And
37 cba : I could see IAH-PEK working well... especially with *A partner Air China's hub there providing further connecting opportunities. But this is most lik
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