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If AA Were To Merge...  
User currently offlinejamesjimlb From United States of America, joined Jan 2006, 1023 posts, RR: 2
Posted (4 years 9 months 4 weeks 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 5573 times:

This may belong in Polls & Prefs, if so, I apologize and please move the thread.....
Also, this may be a repost, if so please delete thread.

Hello, earlier I was reading the topic about the possible CO - UA merger, one replied said if that were to happen, AA would most likely have to merge with someone to stay competitive.

Who do you think would be the most economical choice for AA.

I think they could merge with some of the "smaller" airlines, like HA and MX .
Also, what about HP? I know they merged with AWE in 2005, but would a merger with AA ever be possible?

~Jamesjimlb


The sky is no longer the limit, but the mere minimum
37 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently onlinejfk777 From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 8496 posts, RR: 6
Reply 1, posted (4 years 9 months 4 weeks 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 5557 times:
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Odds of AA merging with Usairways is very low. AA and Alaskan would help AA on the west coast and LAX if AA expands Asia service. AMR could always buy Southwest and operate two airlines giving them los of control in Texas and Midway Airport in Chicago.

User currently offlineDavescj From United States of America, joined Jun 2007, 2307 posts, RR: 0
Reply 2, posted (4 years 9 months 4 weeks 1 day ago) and read 5533 times:

US/AA will never happen. For so many reasons they can't be gotten into here, but the least of which is unions.

That said, AS like working with everyone. For their situation -- largely west coast and up to Alaska, that makes a great deal of sense. There would not be enough traffic for anyone alone to go completely solo. HA has the issue of a high leisure market, but would be possible.

AA did merge with TWA -- and in part to resolve a major player in their own backyard.

If I had to "guess" about who I would merge with (in an ideal world) it would be AirTran, as it would get me into ATL, fortify my southeastern flank, and get me into MKE as a focus city to compliment my ORD hub.


Dave



Can I have a mojito on this flight?
User currently offlinePHLBOS From United States of America, joined Mar 2004, 7558 posts, RR: 23
Reply 3, posted (4 years 9 months 4 weeks 1 day ago) and read 5483 times:

Quoting jamesjimlb (Thread starter):
Also, what about HP? I know they merged with AWE in 2005

I think you meant that HP merged w/US.

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 1):
AMR could always buy Southwest and operate two airlines giving them los of control in Texas and Midway Airport in Chicago.

10 things would need to happen before that could occur:

1. National Organization of Women joins forces with Focus On The Family.

2. The KKK joins forces withe the NAACP.

3. Osama Bin Laden converts to Judiasm.

4. James O'Keefe and Michael Moore become friends.

5. Rush Limbaugh becomes a liberal Democrat.

6. Nancy Pelosi becomes a conservative Republican and Tea party supporter.

7. Hugo Chavez becomes a capitalist.

8. Prius owners trade in their hybrids for large SUVs and/or 200 mph (& 8 mpg) sports cars.

9. Pigs learn to fly.

10. There will be Ice Dancing in Hell.



"TransEastern! You'll feel like you've never left the ground because we treat you like dirt!" SNL Parady ad circa 1981
User currently offlinejamesjimlb From United States of America, joined Jan 2006, 1023 posts, RR: 2
Reply 4, posted (4 years 9 months 4 weeks 1 day ago) and read 5469 times:

Quoting PHLBOS (Reply 3):

I think you meant that HP merged w/US.

Yes, I tried to remember the two letter acronym, and I guess I got them backwards

Quoting PHLBOS (Reply 3):
10 things would need to happen before that could occur:

1. National Organization of Women joins forces with Focus On The Family.

2. The KKK joins forces withe the NAACP.

3. Osama Bin Laden converts to Judiasm.

4. James O'Keefe and Michael Moore become friends.

5. Rush Limbaugh becomes a liberal Democrat.

6. Nancy Pelosi becomes a conservative Republican and Tea party supporter.

7. Hugo Chavez becomes a capitalist.

8. Prius owners trade in their hybrids for large SUVs and/or 200 mph (& 8 mpg) sports cars.

9. Pigs learn to fly.

10. There will be Ice Dancing in Hell.

Who knows, the world is a crazy place
  

[Edited 2010-02-25 05:56:33]


The sky is no longer the limit, but the mere minimum
User currently offlineLAXdude1023 From India, joined Sep 2006, 7808 posts, RR: 25
Reply 5, posted (4 years 9 months 4 weeks 1 day ago) and read 5452 times:

Quoting Davescj (Reply 2):
That said, AS like working with everyone. For their situation -- largely west coast and up to Alaska, that makes a great deal of sense. There would not be enough traffic for anyone alone to go completely solo. HA has the issue of a high leisure market, but would be possible.

The cost structure would be a nightmare to integrate. For that reason, we wont see an AA/AS merger. Thats a problem that cant be overcome.

I really dont think AA will merge with anybody. They dont need to.



Stewed...Lewd...Crude...Irreverent...Belligerent
User currently offlinePHLBOS From United States of America, joined Mar 2004, 7558 posts, RR: 23
Reply 6, posted (4 years 9 months 4 weeks 1 day ago) and read 5419 times:

Quoting jamesjimlb (Reply 4):
Who knows, the world is a crazy place

True, and all kidding aside, a AA-WN hook-up would likely get shot down by the DOJ because it would give one carrier too much control of not one but two cities (Chicago & Dallas). Remember, the DOJ shot down the UA-US merger many years ago because such a merger would give one airline too much control over at DCA/IAD.



"TransEastern! You'll feel like you've never left the ground because we treat you like dirt!" SNL Parady ad circa 1981
User currently offlineRIPCORDD From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 1197 posts, RR: 1
Reply 7, posted (4 years 9 months 4 weeks 1 day ago) and read 5353 times:

AA didn't merge with TWA it bought them.....Also there was some talk here of AA buying AS and let them operate as AS to keep the costs down.

User currently offlineTeamAmerica From United States of America, joined Sep 2006, 1761 posts, RR: 23
Reply 8, posted (4 years 9 months 4 weeks 23 hours ago) and read 5329 times:

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 1):
AMR could always buy Southwest and operate two airlines giving them los of control in Texas and Midway Airport in Chicago.

Southwest is 3x times the size of AMR in market cap. AA could not "buy" WN, even if they wanted to.  



Failure is not an option; it's an outcome.
User currently offlinecba From United States of America, joined Jul 2000, 4531 posts, RR: 3
Reply 9, posted (4 years 9 months 4 weeks 23 hours ago) and read 5299 times:

Quoting Davescj (Reply 2):

If I had to "guess" about who I would merge with (in an ideal world) it would be AirTran, as it would get me into ATL, fortify my southeastern flank

Interesting scenario... it surely would be a counter punch to DL. I don't think this would work very well however, as Air Tran competes with DL by using the LCC model... I don't know if AA's model could compete against DL at its fortress.

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 5):
I really dont think AA will merge with anybody. They dont need to.

  

Even if CO and UA merge we're looking at:
1. DL/NW
2. UA/CO
3. AA

AA is large enough to be competitive against these two mega airlines. It has a strong presence to LHR, a good share of the premium transcon market (AA flagship service on JFK-LAX, JFK-SFO). It holds its own at LAX and JFK against a growing DL behemoth, maintains strength in ORD despite UA, and has two cash cow hubs in DFW and MIA.

Assuming it can get its house in order internally, AA will be fine.


User currently offlineItalianFlyer From United States of America, joined Nov 2007, 1099 posts, RR: 2
Reply 10, posted (4 years 9 months 4 weeks 23 hours ago) and read 5169 times:

Quoting cba (Reply 9):
Assuming it can get its house in order internally, AA will be fine.


  

That is the relevant understatement of the decade lol. All of this is somewhat moot if AA/AMR dose not get its own house in order. In the near term, AA is betting the kitty on getting ATI approved, implemented and maximizing the AA/BA/IB/(JL?) synergies. I seriously doubt that AA is even considering any growth in US market share through acquisition. Heck, the whole point of ATI is to reduce its dependence on domestic market gyrations....so it would be counter-intuitive to turn around and merge with another US carrier.

Just my .02 on AS....as I have said before...they have a niche and a model that can not be will-fitted into a larger network carrier. AA,DL and US all learned that they can not successfully 'buy' west coast market share and make it work profitably. AS does what the big guys cant and makes money doing it. Throwing precious capital down the drain to fix 'what aint broken' would be corporate suicide for anyone who makes that play and would ultimately strengthen the 800lb gorilla (WN).


User currently offlinetimf From United States of America, joined Mar 2003, 971 posts, RR: 1
Reply 11, posted (4 years 9 months 4 weeks 23 hours ago) and read 5128 times:
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AA has a bad track record with mergers and acquisitions. Whether it's OC, QQ, or TW, in all of these cases they acquired the airline and operated their routes for a short time, but ultimately eliminated most of them. AA knows what works for them, and it's ORD, DFW, and MIA. Merging with AS for example would likely result in a strong AA presence in the northwest for 5 years or so, but eventually those 737s would get moved to other hubs and a new entrant would move in to fill the gap left by AS and AA.

User currently offlineSeatback From United States of America, joined Mar 2002, 780 posts, RR: 0
Reply 12, posted (4 years 9 months 4 weeks 22 hours ago) and read 5085 times:

Quoting Davescj (Reply 2):
US/AA will never happen. For so many reasons they can't be gotten into here, but the least of which is unions.

We've talked this idea many, many times on other threads.

When have unions stopped anyone from merging?? AA's perspective could be that things are really bad right now, so how could it get any worse?

With US, AA becomes a solid top player all along the east coast, from top to bottom (BOS, LGA, JFK, PHL, CLT, DCA, MIA). I don't foresee PHX as part of the mix, with most of that flying sent to LAX. They also get some pretty new planes to help replace the older MD80's/757's.


User currently offlineMGASJO From Nicaragua, joined Feb 2005, 466 posts, RR: 7
Reply 13, posted (4 years 9 months 4 weeks 22 hours ago) and read 5033 times:

Quoting PHLBOS (Reply 3):
7. Hugo Chavez becomes a capitalist.


way off topic..but who says he isn't a capitalist??



C208B
User currently offlinemayor From United States of America, joined Mar 2008, 10653 posts, RR: 14
Reply 14, posted (4 years 9 months 4 weeks 22 hours ago) and read 4996 times:

Quoting MGASJO (Reply 13):
way off topic..but who says he isn't a capitalist??

Hugo



"A committee is a group of the unprepared, appointed by the unwilling, to do the unnecessary"----Fred Allen
User currently offlineFlyCaledonian From United Kingdom, joined Dec 2003, 2104 posts, RR: 3
Reply 15, posted (4 years 9 months 4 weeks 22 hours ago) and read 4958 times:

Quoting RIPCORDD (Reply 7):
Also there was some talk here of AA buying AS and let them operate as AS to keep the costs down

Wouldn't it be AMR buying AS, and it would then operate AS alongside AA? That would seem the more logical acquisition.

If UA and CO were to merge, then it would be interesting to see how US looked to respond to this. It would be in an alliance alongside a much bigger carrier. Its main PHL hub (for longhaul) would be squeezed between hubs at EWR and IAD operated by its co-Alliance carrier. So might it make overtures to AA?

AA has never made any noises to suggest it wants to merge or partner with any domestic carrier in the US since the TW takeover. CO, DL, UA, NW and US on the other hand have all done so in various combinations (e.g. proposed CO/DL and UA/US deals - the latter making much more progress - then the actual DL/NW deal). So if UA/CO merged AA would either need to feel that it had to merge with US, or US would have to approach AA with a deal that made AA think it would be worthwhile.

A more likely scenario, I believe, would be US defecting to oneworld and seeking to come in on the ATI deal at some point if it (US) felt CO/UA were getting too close and squeezing out US.



Let's Go British Caledonian!
User currently offlinedeltaL1011man From United States of America, joined Sep 2005, 9700 posts, RR: 14
Reply 16, posted (4 years 9 months 4 weeks 22 hours ago) and read 4940 times:

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 1):
AMR could always buy Southwest and operate two airlines giving them los of control in Texas and Midway Airport in Chicago.

Can't happen. The APA would have a s**t fit and i would bet money there contract wouldn't let it happen.

Quoting PHLBOS (Reply 3):
quote]
Ok, thats funny. 
[quote=MGASJO,reply=13]
way off topic..but who says he isn't a capitalist??

If he is capitalist so was Stalin



yep.
User currently offlineLHCVG From United States of America, joined May 2009, 1642 posts, RR: 2
Reply 17, posted (4 years 9 months 4 weeks 22 hours ago) and read 4860 times:

Quoting PHLBOS (Reply 3):

Wouldn't this be the ultimate flanking maneuver on the other legacies though? I'm not advocating this, as I have no care or stake in either airline, but a legacy tying up with the largest of the LCCs could be a potential game changer if they work out the logistics of cooperating while still keeping them separate entities.


User currently offlinedl767captain From United States of America, joined Mar 2007, 2539 posts, RR: 0
Reply 18, posted (4 years 9 months 4 weeks 21 hours ago) and read 4779 times:

AA wouldn't really get much out of a merger, they would do better with a hostile takeover maybe. AA really knows what they're doing and don't need anything from another airline to keep them going. The only realy option they would have is US airways. CO and UA are taken, now they could go after some smaller airlines like Alaska but that wouldn't really give them anything. I think AA will do better trying to get closer with airlines like BA (like their ATI). AA could form the type of relationship that AF and KL have.

To be honest AA and UA i think would be a really interesting combination but i doubt it would happen


User currently offlineFlyby519 From United States of America, joined Jul 2007, 1234 posts, RR: 0
Reply 19, posted (4 years 9 months 4 weeks 21 hours ago) and read 4772 times:

Quoting Seatback (Reply 12):
When have unions stopped anyone from merging?? AA's perspective could be that things are really bad right now, so how could it get any worse?

The unions at HP/US royally screwed themselves from any chance at success. They might not have prevented the merger, but they prevented a successful future IMHO.

Also, things could alllwwayyys get worse at AA. APA has been very quiet lately, and the vague AA negotiations email updates have a slightly more optimistic tone to them. I know there are still issues with TWU/APFA but that will change once they see APA ink a new contract.



These postings or comments are not a company-sponsored source of communication.
User currently offlineFlyby519 From United States of America, joined Jul 2007, 1234 posts, RR: 0
Reply 20, posted (4 years 9 months 4 weeks 21 hours ago) and read 4772 times:

Quoting cba (Reply 9):
AA is large enough to be competitive against these two mega airlines. It has a strong presence to LHR, a good share of the premium transcon market (AA flagship service on JFK-LAX, JFK-SFO). It holds its own at LAX and JFK against a growing DL behemoth, maintains strength in ORD despite UA, and has two cash cow hubs in DFW and MIA.

Assuming it can get its house in order internally, AA will be fine.

  



These postings or comments are not a company-sponsored source of communication.
User currently offlinePHLBOS From United States of America, joined Mar 2004, 7558 posts, RR: 23
Reply 21, posted (4 years 9 months 4 weeks 21 hours ago) and read 4718 times:

Quoting LHCVG (Reply 17):
I'm not advocating this, as I have no care or stake in either airline, but a legacy tying up with the largest of the LCCs could be a potential game changer if they work out the logistics of cooperating while still keeping them separate entities.

Outside of the preceeding merger and/or aquisition process (except for the WN-Muse Air hookup that became Transtar); how would this be any different than the various carrier within a carrier (CO-Lite, Song, MetroJet, Ted) scenarios we've seen in the past... all of which were short-lived BTW?



"TransEastern! You'll feel like you've never left the ground because we treat you like dirt!" SNL Parady ad circa 1981
User currently offlineLHCVG From United States of America, joined May 2009, 1642 posts, RR: 2
Reply 22, posted (4 years 9 months 4 weeks 21 hours ago) and read 4680 times:

Quoting PHLBOS (Reply 21):
Outside of the preceeding merger and/or aquisition process (except for the WN-Muse Air hookup that became Transtar); how would this be any different than the various carrier within a carrier (CO-Lite, Song, MetroJet, Ted) scenarios we've seen in the past... all of which were short-lived BTW?

I guess what I was envisioning was a pure equity stake, and perhaps share on mx (whatever they can between 73G and 738). Then do codeshareing, which would open up WN to HI, international routes, and the like. Granted, WN might not be interested given it's relatively sound financial state, but it would be a way for them to get international, Hawaii, etc. service, and further leverage the good coverage in TX that they both have. Finally, if the market continues to erode for the legacies to where they are eventually left only with premium biz routes and int'l service, AA would have the rigth patner. LIke I said, I'm not an expert on this and not claiming it would definitely work, just that I could see how it could.


User currently offlineRyeFly From United States of America, joined Jun 2000, 1396 posts, RR: 0
Reply 23, posted (4 years 9 months 4 weeks 21 hours ago) and read 4599 times:

This is just a random idea, but it would be interesting to see how it would play out.

We all know most of the big legacy airlines have tried to create a low cost airlines-within-an-airline idea. They have failed for several different reasons, but one contributing factor is they started with a small fleet and gave them terrible names such as Song, Ted, MetroJet. The average leisure passenger for whom is most likely to look for the lowest price when flying, likely never heard of these airlines before.

The same can't be said for using the name US Airways. They are the 5th largest carrier in the United States and have the largest narrow body Airbus fleet. Most people know who they are. So instead of AA merging with US, why not just buy them, and make the A319/20/21 fleet all coach and make it a true low cost carrier under the US Airways name? They would need to get someone who knows what they are doing to run it, but there would be very little cost for AA to combine the two airlines because most of the fleet would not need to be repainted. The A330's and any ETOPS 757's would go to American and retire the rest of the fleet of 737's, and 767's.

AA's hubs remain the same, PHL, LGA, PHX, LAS would hubs for the new LCC US Airways, DCA, CLT, MIA would be a mix of US & AA. Then AA could focus on making American a more attractive full service carrier for frequent flyers/biz pax and not try to cheapen it's image to stay competitve with the LCC's.


User currently offlinePHLBOS From United States of America, joined Mar 2004, 7558 posts, RR: 23
Reply 24, posted (4 years 9 months 4 weeks 20 hours ago) and read 4493 times:

Quoting LHCVG (Reply 22):
LIke I said, I'm not an expert on this and not claiming it would definitely work

Fair enough, your honesty is quite appreciated.

Quoting LHCVG (Reply 22):
just that I could see how it could.

Maybe theoretically or on paper as it were; but in reality and given AA's past history of its other mergers and aquisitions, the results clearly prove otherwise. Heck, they could've done similar w/TW (make them a separate carrier within a carrier) but chose not to 9/11 or no 9/11.



"TransEastern! You'll feel like you've never left the ground because we treat you like dirt!" SNL Parady ad circa 1981
25 LHCVG : Very true. I just through that out there, but in my personal opinion, their best bet is what has been discussed here before, to just wait it out and
26 LMP737 : I can only imagine the mess that would be. AA has tried that before, twice. Unless of course AA wants to have a monopoly on remote Alaskan towns. Not
27 Macsog6 : If AA were to do this, costs would become a significant factor. What you would likely have is a holding company, AMR, that owned two carriers, one be
28 Flyby519 : Macsog got this one. The reason legacy carriers cant have a successful LCC is because of the costs. The expense of keeping 2 separate companies creat
29 ckfred : An AS/AA merger would fill a hole in AA's route system, the Pacific Northwest, but I can't see AS wanting a merger. AA's track record isn't good, so I
30 commavia : The issue isn't AA's "track record." It's AA's costs. AA could never operate the Alaska network because its costs are simply way too high. PHX would
31 jfk777 : First any deal involving AA and any airline would have to for for stock not cash, today what merger in any industry gets done in cash, few if any. Th
32 ridgid727 : AA allready bought two strong regional carriers, and couldn't leave them alone. They hatched, cut, spun, reallocated, culled fleets, laid off, suspend
33 Post contains images TeamAmerica : Stock or cash is completely irrelevant to my point. AMR is too small to *buy* Southwest, period. These entities are not going to merge, but speaking
34 ckfred : The Air Cal problem wasn't so much AA messing things up as it was Southwest moving into California. After Southwest moved in, US basically ditched th
35 EMB170 : Hmmm...If I were a betting man,I would not agree with PHL being a good fit for AA. I have always said that the reason PHL functions as a hub is becau
36 Post contains images AirframeAS : That rumor is not even new. That has been going around for the last 20+ years or so, and it has never happened. What AS does now is something that mo
37 Post contains images CARST : AA US Merger: Hubs & Focus Cities ( Blue US, Red AA ) If AA and US would be merging i see PHL disappear as a hub. It could remain a Focus City, bu
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