bjorn14 From Norway, joined Feb 2010, 2971 posts, RR: 2 Posted (3 years 9 months 1 week 4 days 8 hours ago) and read 8349 times:
I know there have been hub discussions previously but I am writing a thesis on developing a medium to large-sized US hub with an LCC using 75-125 pax planes. Supporting 50-75 destinations. I am looking for suggestions for cities/airports as 'real world' possibilities as not to make it too academic and with the assumption that this hub has a reasonable chance to succeed.
Thanks in advance.
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ATLFlyer323 From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 585 posts, RR: 0 Reply 3, posted (3 years 9 months 1 week 4 days 8 hours ago) and read 8321 times:
What about PIT? I know it used to serve as a "hub or focus city" at one point in time. It has a metro population of about 2.5 million and and airport that is already sufficient enough to handle large amounts of traffic.
CALPSAFltSkeds From United States of America, joined Dec 2006, 2416 posts, RR: 9 Reply 7, posted (3 years 9 months 1 week 4 days 7 hours ago) and read 8183 times:
Will you factoring in competition and whether the competition is an LLC or not? If your hub is in the Eastern protions of the US, you'll probably have destinations with shorter stage lengths on average, thus allowing more frequency or requiring fewer aircraft. For a point of reference using your parameters based on 10 hour utilization, one one end of the spectrum with 75 aircraft flying to 75 cities gives each route an average of 1.5 round trips per destination with 3 hour stage lengths. The other end would be 125 aircraft flying to 50 destinations would provide about 4 RTs on average for each route.
In general a good hub is at least 1/3 local traffic and the rest connections - the more routes, the higher the connection percentage as markets multiply.
A good hub has balance on at least two sides (east/west or north/south). Mid continent hub s of MCI and STL may work as they have had more flights in the past and have good O & D, but now have heavy WN presence. You may want to stay away from placing a hub close to other massive hubs like ATL, IAH, DFW, ORD, realizing that maybe your hub could become a reliever to those hubs. Others that might work are CMH, PIT and IND. I think a western hub would have less chance of success due to longer distances between cities and the fact that most cities are along the coast and don't have directional potential. LAS might work, but again WN is a factor and yields/loads have peaking problems.
Pittsburgh, St.Louis, Nashville, New Orleans....those would probably be capable of supporting 50 destinations.
Pittsbugh: Maybe, limited LFC presence
St. Louis: Tougher nut to crack with fairly large WN presence
Nashville: See St. Louis
New Orleans: See St. Louis
As the OP mentioned "real world possibilities" one has to consider what's out there already.
There are precious few large metro areas out there that could support such an operation that the OP envisions. Those markets are already spoken for. A single hub operation with say 3 daily frequencies per market means at minimum 150 daily departures. Less frquency than that will turn off the biz traveller.
I could however, see a multihub LFC within the OP's vision spread out over 2 or 3 of the aforementioned cities, PIT/STL/MSY would be an interesting combo with complimentary traffic flows.
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NASCARAirforce From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 3134 posts, RR: 5 Reply 9, posted (3 years 9 months 1 week 3 days 21 hours ago) and read 7727 times:
I would suggest CVG once DAL reduces operations.
CVG has a very large populace and NO LLCs.
If DAL cuts back more and starts vacating the terminal, you would have a nice terminal that is relatively new to work with. It is in a good central location for those E to W flights as well as the N to S flights and vice versa.
Cincinnati itself has a large population on both sides of the river as well as drawing people from Dayton area and Lexington area. Dayton just sees LLC from TRS and FFT and LEX as far as I know just from AAY (TRS?).
CVG has not seen service from LLCs as far as I know since the original Air Tran before it was taken over by Value Jet and fares are high. If DAL cuts back more at CVG due to its proximity to DTW or even goes down to regional jets, pax might be more comfortable flying your larger aircraft - that is if you go to aircraft more towards the 125 seat range vs 75 seats.
KingFriday013 From United States of America, joined May 2007, 1283 posts, RR: 10 Reply 10, posted (3 years 9 months 1 week 3 days 19 hours ago) and read 7400 times:
Don't choose ROC. Unless you're planning to fly south or west of Chicago, we have most of the eastern United States covered (and Toronto too!). Maybe destinations such as DFW, IAH, LAX, SFO, PHX, SEA, MSP, and perhaps smaller eastern cities like BGR, RDU, PIT, and IND would work. Then again you need room for the planes, and we're a pretty small space for anything more than 20 or so planes, not to mention 50.
Good luck! I'd love to read it when it's complete. What degree are you writing it for?
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RiddlePilot215 From United States of America, joined Oct 2003, 315 posts, RR: 0 Reply 12, posted (3 years 9 months 1 week 3 days 15 hours ago) and read 6881 times:
I think most of you are forgetting a few things about CVG and PIT....the landing fees and PFC's alone are enough to drive an LCC operation crazy...Especially if you're a new entrant into the market that could just be downright prohibitive.
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rangercarp From United States of America, joined Nov 2009, 130 posts, RR: 0 Reply 14, posted (3 years 9 months 1 week 3 days 11 hours ago) and read 6239 times:
I have always thought MCI, STL and DEN are the perfect mid-continent hub locations. ICT and OMA would join that group IF they had better O&D. Obviously DEN is taken, times three. MCI has a strong LCC presence and the terminal would need renovation for connections inside of security. STL now has plenty of vacant space that could be rented cheap, but as has been mentioned, WN would be a big factor.
I never thought about it before, but I like this idea of CVG (and to a lesser extent, IND). It is far enough east to allow a lot of north-south connections, yet far enough west to cover a whole lot of east-west connections. Additionally it is well placed for Texas to the northeast connections. I have no knowledge of landing fees at any of these airports, but like STL, I am certain one could secure the needed CVG terminal space at great rates.
OK, now here is a thought that could make things complicated: If a new LCC moved into CVG or STL, what are the chances of Delta/AA building their former hub back up -- for a year or two -- with the sole purpose of destroying a competitor???
Qantas777 From United States of America, joined Aug 2000, 484 posts, RR: 1 Reply 15, posted (3 years 9 months 1 week 3 days 9 hours ago) and read 5998 times:
Well, if it's real world, you would not do the US since yields sucks and capacity is not where it should be yet. Can you do another country?
RDU may work, just copy Midway, obviously dont' include the crj. RDU can provide somewhat good yields and has a good business market for the northeast us as well.
MCI, STL will never work, but since this is academia, you can probably get away with it and make it look good. Gosh this is a tough once since the reality of the markets really suck. Create an MCO one and create an intl latin flow?
ATLFlyer323 From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 585 posts, RR: 0 Reply 17, posted (3 years 9 months 1 week 3 days 9 hours ago) and read 5819 times:
Quoting BAKJet (Reply 4): Maybe Indianapolis, Norfolk or Jacksonville?
Jacksonville could work, it is the major airport for SE Georgia and NE Florida. You could potentially get all the students and parents flying to UF or the colleges in Jacksonville, and the metro area does have roughly 1.3 million people. If you think could get enough passengers it's one I would look into. Both concourses are brand new with empty gate space and JAX has master pans to add an additional concourse if the demand presented itself.
miller22 From United States of America, joined Nov 2000, 711 posts, RR: 4 Reply 18, posted (3 years 9 months 1 week 3 days 9 hours ago) and read 5788 times:
If you're determined to set up an LCC hub (which I would advise against) then I would strongly suggest DFW. DFW is the largest single-airline market, especially when you consider WN's limitations at DAL with the Wright Amendment.
Consider the success of Airtran in Atlanta, and apply that to DFW.
ERJ170 From United States of America, joined Apr 2004, 6692 posts, RR: 18 Reply 20, posted (3 years 9 months 1 week 3 days 8 hours ago) and read 5688 times:
Quoting bjorn14 (Thread starter): developing a medium to large-sized US hub with an LCC using 75-125 pax planes. Supporting 50-75 destinations.
I would suggest RDU (of course) or GSO. Simply because both are very well geographically speaking. It's great for funneling North/West-South, North/South-West, US-Europe, North/West-Caribbean, South-Canadian, and North-Central American.
Certain cities are well covered (at least from RDU), but very few are well covered with mainline (exceptions are ATL and CLT).
The aircraft size you are proposing (E70/CR7 to E90/C300) is perfect for mid-tier airports. I would say they may actually be too small for large airport simply because the large airports are already someone else's hub and they would instantly pounce with larger aircraft with much higher frequency and more populous frequent flier options.
FlyASAGuy2005 From United States of America, joined Sep 2007, 6852 posts, RR: 11 Reply 22, posted (3 years 9 months 1 week 3 days 7 hours ago) and read 5587 times:
Quoting RiddlePilot215 (Reply 12): I think most of you are forgetting a few things about CVG and PIT....the landing fees and PFC's alone are enough to drive an LCC operation crazy...Especially if you're a new entrant into the market that could just be downright prohibitive.
Let's not forget, many times these fees may be reduced, especially for new entrants. Of course, in any airline business model, this will be accounted for and added into the start-up costs; assuming that they already know how many flights they plan on having through the year (even if the number goes up).
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texan From New Zealand, joined Dec 2003, 4240 posts, RR: 53 Reply 24, posted (3 years 9 months 1 week 3 days 6 hours ago) and read 5457 times:
Quoting miller22 (Reply 18): If you're determined to set up an LCC hub (which I would advise against) then I would strongly suggest DFW. DFW is the largest single-airline market, especially when you consider WN's limitations at DAL with the Wright Amendment.
Consider the success of Airtran in Atlanta, and apply that to DFW.
If you were to do that, however, you would need to factor in American's competitive response (see Vanguard, WestPac, AirTran's abortive attempt at a focus city, and others) as well as Southwest's competitive advantages operating short haul from DAL.
On paper, you could make it work. Choose strong O&D cities with little to no competition to and from Dallas, factor in connecting opportunities, and you could make a case that having a 125 airplane, 50 city operation would be economically viable. Try translating that off paper, though, and you will likely come up with a different story.
One thing I would suggest is focusing on having a unique, strong product with strong brand loyalty. No idea how you might want to do that, but in order to attract passengers away from established carriers in established markets, you need to do something different.
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25 MtnWest1979: Well, whenever I would put together an airline route map on paper, I liked to settle on CMH and OKC as hub cities. Seem to have decent amount of local
26 biggsfo: Well there aren't any major metropolitan areas who fit the OP's scope (50-75 aircraft; 75-125 destinations) which aren't already dominated by one or m
27 miller22: I agree entirely, which is why I disagreed with the initial premise. Given the rules of the exercise, DFW seems the logical choice, but I wouldn't bu