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LAX - SYD, Too Much/too Little?  
User currently offlineboeingfever777 From United States of America, joined Jul 2009, 409 posts, RR: 55
Posted (4 years 1 month 2 weeks 22 hours ago) and read 11251 times:

I was looking at the carriers that fly this route and was looking at frequencies... Does this route have overkill, is it just right, or could it sustain another carrier trying this route?

DL 1x 77L
QF 2x 744/a380
UA 1x 744
VA 1x 77W

With the global economic downturn I was curious as to if this route is a profitable as it was say 5 years ago? I know that UA and QF were only flying it back then. I know the competition has to be killer!

What happen to SQ getting in on this route?


Faire du ciel le plus bel endroit de la terre.
59 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlinesunrisevalley From Canada, joined Jul 2004, 4604 posts, RR: 5
Reply 1, posted (4 years 1 month 2 weeks 22 hours ago) and read 11245 times:

Quoting boeingfever777 (Thread starter):
What happen to SQ getting in on this route?

I would say that when VA entered the fray their chances became zero. Anyway why would they want to fly it now . The premium seat revenues must be under heavy pressure.


User currently offlineboeingfever777 From United States of America, joined Jul 2009, 409 posts, RR: 55
Reply 2, posted (4 years 1 month 2 weeks 22 hours ago) and read 11160 times:

Quoting sunrisevalley (Reply 1):
Anyway why would they want to fly it now .

VA does not fly daily and it's a route SQ can make money.



Faire du ciel le plus bel endroit de la terre.
User currently offlinefxramper From United States of America, joined Dec 2005, 7126 posts, RR: 87
Reply 3, posted (4 years 1 month 2 weeks 22 hours ago) and read 11154 times:

Quoting boeingfever777 (Thread starter):
UA 1x 744

Would like to see more from UA.

Quoting boeingfever777 (Thread starter):
QF 2x 744/a380

Miss seeing all those QF a/c parked at LAX.

  


User currently offlinedeltal1011man From United States of America, joined Sep 2005, 9071 posts, RR: 12
Reply 4, posted (4 years 1 month 2 weeks 21 hours ago) and read 10995 times:

Quoting boeingfever777 (Reply 2):
VA does not fly daily and it's a route SQ can make money.

How do you know SQ could make money on it? I would say it would be VERY unlikely they could. I would be shocked if the 4 airlines on it now are make much, if any, money.



yep.
User currently offlineGemuser From Australia, joined Nov 2003, 5551 posts, RR: 6
Reply 5, posted (4 years 1 month 2 weeks 21 hours ago) and read 10956 times:

Quoting fxramper (Reply 3):
Miss seeing all those QF a/c parked at LAX.

???
There are still 4-5 QF aircraft parked at LAX most of the day. Two arrive from SYD, one each from MEL, BNE & AKL. All arrive by about 10:00 am and all leave after 9:00 pm, one does the LAX-JFK-LAX tag during this period. This is only one less than the all time high of 6 when there was a third SYD-LAX on some days of the week.

Gemuser



DC23468910;B72172273373G73873H74374475275376377L77W;A319 320321332333343;BAe146;C402;DHC6;F27;L188;MD80MD85
User currently offlineOA412 From United States of America, joined Dec 2000, 5225 posts, RR: 25
Reply 6, posted (4 years 1 month 2 weeks 21 hours ago) and read 10948 times:

Quoting boeingfever777 (Thread starter):
What happen to SQ getting in on this route?

SQ wanted in on the route when it was super premium with great yields. They claimed that they were trying to inject competition into the route, but let's not kid ourselves. Now that there's adequate competition, SQ has lots its bargaining position with the Aussies. Additionally, now that yields have taken a dive, its doubtful that they want in on the bloodbath.

Quoting boeingfever777 (Reply 2):
it's a route SQ can make money.

I'm not sure about that. Each of the four airlines has a hub/focus city on one (and in cases both) end(s) of the flight. Additionally, all 4 airlines are based in one of the two respective countries connected by the LAX-SYD route. Let's be honest, how many people would decide to fly LAX-SYD and instantly think of flying Singapore Airlines? One can make the argument that SQ's Star partner UA is hubbed at LAX, but the carriers don't currently codeshare and I doubt that UA would really welcome SQ on the route.



Hughes Airwest - Top Banana In The West
User currently offlineGemuser From Australia, joined Nov 2003, 5551 posts, RR: 6
Reply 7, posted (4 years 1 month 2 weeks 20 hours ago) and read 10770 times:

Quoting boeingfever777 (Thread starter):
Does this route have overkill, is it just right, or could it sustain another carrier trying this route?

Lets inject a few [rough] numbers into the debate, shall we?

From the BITRE web site total pax SYD-LAX & LAX-SYD = 558566 for 09 and 560138 for 08. Or about 1530 pax per day in 09 and 1534 pax per day in 08.

Total capacity in 09 was about 1837 seats per day. 1 DL B77L, 1 V-Oz B77W, 1 UA B744, 1 QF B744 and 1 QF A380. [I know it varies and that QF is only going daily with the A380 this year and there are different configurations for the B744s, but its a reasonable rough average]


That gives an average annual load factor of 84% for 09. Not brilliant, but not bad. Given its a rough annual averge, I'd say capacity matches demand reasonably well. But I say nothing about average fares or total revenaue.


Gemuser



DC23468910;B72172273373G73873H74374475275376377L77W;A319 320321332333343;BAe146;C402;DHC6;F27;L188;MD80MD85
User currently offlinejfk777 From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 8089 posts, RR: 7
Reply 8, posted (4 years 1 month 1 week 6 days 1 hour ago) and read 9898 times:
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Quoting boeingfever777 (Thread starter):
With the global economic downturn I was curious as to if this route is a profitable as it was say 5 years ago? I know that UA and QF were only flying it back then. I know the competition has to be killer!

Qantas used to charge $10,000 for a roundtrip Business class seat, now its half that.


User currently offlinejflchantha From United States of America, joined Jun 2009, 124 posts, RR: 5
Reply 9, posted (4 years 1 month 1 week 6 days ago) and read 9801 times:

This is a battle, only the best will survive much like how saturated the BOS-BWI route is in the US with LCC. Delta was scarred and backed down.

User currently offlineRoseFlyer From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 9375 posts, RR: 52
Reply 10, posted (4 years 1 month 1 week 6 days ago) and read 9795 times:

Well loads are still good. NZ use to fly LAX-SYD and QF had more than two per day. UA also sometimes operated more than one flight per day to SYD.


If you have never designed an airplane part before, let the real designers do the work!
User currently offlineByrdluvs747 From United States of America, joined Jul 2004, 2309 posts, RR: 1
Reply 11, posted (4 years 1 month 1 week 6 days ago) and read 9749 times:

If there were any capacity room left on this route, I would love to see AA flying it as well.

I always thought it was a mistake for OW to surrender the kind of market dominance on this route that AA/BA share on JFK-LHR.



The 747: The hands who designed it were guided by god.
User currently offlineAirCanada014 From Canada, joined Oct 2005, 1507 posts, RR: 0
Reply 12, posted (4 years 1 month 1 week 5 days 20 hours ago) and read 9445 times:

don't forget AC wanted to fly from YYZ-LAX-SYD and use their 5th freedom on LAX-SYD but doesn't have approval from Australian government yet. they have approval from the USA.

User currently offlineGemuser From Australia, joined Nov 2003, 5551 posts, RR: 6
Reply 13, posted (4 years 1 month 1 week 5 days 18 hours ago) and read 9210 times:

Quoting AirCanada014 (Reply 12):
don't forget AC wanted to fly from YYZ-LAX-SYD and use their 5th freedom on LAX-SYD but doesn't have approval from Australian government yet. they have approval from the USA

They don't have approval, because it is not allowed by the current Australia/Canada bilateral treaty. I believe that Canada canceled the first round of talks on a new bilateral.

BTW AC could fly SFO-SYD immediately, if it wanted too.

Gemuser



DC23468910;B72172273373G73873H74374475275376377L77W;A319 320321332333343;BAe146;C402;DHC6;F27;L188;MD80MD85
User currently offlineStarAC17 From Canada, joined Aug 2003, 3333 posts, RR: 9
Reply 14, posted (4 years 1 month 1 week 5 days 18 hours ago) and read 9160 times:

Quoting Byrdluvs747 (Reply 11):
If there were any capacity room left on this route, I would love to see AA flying it as well.

I don't think AA needs to because they can code share with QF on this route and I think they are much better suited as a feeder for QF and Qantas could up the capacity a lot easier when they get more A380's. I think that QF is one of the things that sustains the daily LAX-YYZ-LAX on AA but I could be dead wrong.

Quoting Gemuser (Reply 13):
BTW AC could fly SFO-SYD immediately, if it wanted too.

They should and I think they might when they get their 787's, however NZ is still can compete on this route even though you have to stop in AKL.



Engineers Rule The World!!!!!
User currently offlineANstar From United Kingdom, joined Nov 2003, 5080 posts, RR: 6
Reply 15, posted (4 years 1 month 1 week 5 days 16 hours ago) and read 9014 times:

Quoting RoseFlyer (Reply 10):
Well loads are still good. NZ use to fly LAX-SYD and QF had more than two per day. UA also sometimes operated more than one flight per day to SYD.

True - what people seem to forget is that NZ used to fly a 747 on the route and QF used to always put a 3rd fligt on for peak periods.

So presumably DL/VA have picked up that slack.

Don't also forget that there was something like 200,000 pax per year who used to go via indirect routes

IE via NZ, Asia etc to get to the USA. Given NZ (and QF's) reduction in LAX capacity I'd say some of those pax now fly direct with VA to via BNE/MEL/SYD direct LAX flights.


User currently offlinetayser From Australia, joined Mar 2008, 1123 posts, RR: 0
Reply 16, posted (4 years 1 month 1 week 5 days 14 hours ago) and read 8890 times:

And not forgetting that demand for SYD is artificially inflated by MEL and BNE.

i.e I read 6 months ago on here that approx 500k people from MEL are routed via SYD annually (all international destinations) - enough to fill 3-4 744/380s everyday. They're probably heading to North Asia (PEK, PVG, NRT, ICN primarily), North America (SFO, YVR and LAX on the UA, QF and AC services that run into SYD), South America and South Africa. Hence it's easy to see why VA have chosen to tap into the direct MEL-JNB market, albeit twice a week is pretty paltry.

The sooner the VA gets more 77Ws to ramp up direct service MEL-LAX and the DL joint venture gets approved by Uncle Sam's government, the better. I flew VA11 on 9th Feb with an approximate 60% load and VA12 on Tuesday (2nd March) and had a similar load. Not surprising they only offer the service - you guessed it - twice a week.


User currently offlineANstar From United Kingdom, joined Nov 2003, 5080 posts, RR: 6
Reply 17, posted (4 years 1 month 1 week 5 days 14 hours ago) and read 8884 times:

Quoting tayser (Reply 16):
Not surprising they only offer the service - you guessed it - twice a week.
Quoting tayser (Reply 16):
Hence it's easy to see why VA have chosen to tap into the direct MEL-JNB market, albeit twice a week is pretty paltry.

Can't please some people - would you prefer they don't fly to MEL at all and choose say SYD or BNE instead?

SOME service is better than NO service.


User currently offlinetayser From Australia, joined Mar 2008, 1123 posts, RR: 0
Reply 18, posted (4 years 1 month 1 week 5 days 13 hours ago) and read 8715 times:

Yeah that's true, but what's more likely to succeed and more importantly attract higher yielding traffic? A 2x weekly service or waiting for aircraft and starting at 4-5x weekly (on MEL-LAX)?

[Edited 2010-03-06 03:19:38]

User currently offlineIndianicWorld From Australia, joined Jun 2001, 2779 posts, RR: 0
Reply 19, posted (4 years 1 month 1 week 5 days 11 hours ago) and read 8576 times:

The frequency argument is a valid one in some ways, but in other viewpoint, atleast it gives a start point to build on. The LAX and soon to be JNB routes from MEL will never be ultra high yielding routes and are mainly tailored towards tourists, so boosting capacity to meet demand is a good strategic decision.

It is true though that a lot of pax are funnelled through SYD from MEL and that prices are often higher on the non-stop options, but hey, atleast the options are there. MEL has shown it is a market that has grown leaps and bounds over the past 10 years, with airlines building service where they see it can be justified at a viable position. In the meantime MEL pax will have to be funnelled onto SYD services at times until the case is solid for direct service to begin.


User currently offlinetayser From Australia, joined Mar 2008, 1123 posts, RR: 0
Reply 20, posted (4 years 1 month 1 week 5 days 11 hours ago) and read 8541 times:

When 1/3 of the plane's cabin space is devoted to premium cabins (and that 1/3 is further divided into 2/3 business and 1/3 Y+) I wouldn't exactly argue that they're aiming more at the tourist traffic.

VA were conceived to battle QF mainline head on on the Pacific, not JQ!


User currently offlineANstar From United Kingdom, joined Nov 2003, 5080 posts, RR: 6
Reply 21, posted (4 years 1 month 1 week 5 days 11 hours ago) and read 8524 times:

Quoting tayser (Reply 18):
Yeah that's true, but what's more likely to succeed and more importantly attract higher yielding traffic? A 2x weekly service or waiting for aircraft and starting at 4-5x weekly (on MEL-LAX)?

Given MEL pax can also go via BNE/SYD I think 2 x weekly is ok for MEL. They could have gone 3 x weekly but decided it better to send the aircraft to HKT. That plan seems to be working as I hear the HKT flights are VERY popular.

Obviously 2 x weekly is not ideal, but it is better than no direct service at all. At least VA aren't shunning flights from MEL as QF seem to do. I mean what long haul does QF fly from MEL these days HKG, SIN & LAX? VA already have the same amount of destinations JNB, HKT and LAX.

As more aircraft arrive frequencies will be lifted. I say good on them for trying new things.


User currently offlinedeltal1011man From United States of America, joined Sep 2005, 9071 posts, RR: 12
Reply 22, posted (4 years 1 month 1 week 5 days 6 hours ago) and read 8227 times:

Quoting tayser (Reply 16):
The sooner the VA gets more 77Ws to ramp up direct service MEL-LAX and the DL joint venture gets approved by Uncle Sam's government, the better. I flew VA11 on 9th Feb with an approximate 60% load and VA12 on Tuesday (2nd March) and had a similar load. Not surprising they only offer the service - you guessed it - twice a week.

You can fly LAX-SYD-MEL on DL/DJ also. IMO we will see a DL 77L on LAX-MEL at some point.(sooner not later)



yep.
User currently offlinePITrules From United States of America, joined Jun 2000, 3030 posts, RR: 4
Reply 23, posted (4 years 1 month 1 week 19 hours ago) and read 7494 times:

In the Australia thread its been mentioned UA will add a second daily LAX-SYD 744 flight for Dec and Jan.

http://airlineroute.net/2010/03/10/ua-laxsyd-w10/#more-18165

When V Australia and Delta announced their plans to serve the route, of the 4 airlines many thought UA would end up being the weakest and perhaps even withdraw. Therefore its interesting they are the one to increase capacity (with a daily 744 no less), even if its seasonal.

So does a second LAX-SYD make more sense for UA than the LAX-MEL they've done in the past?



FLYi
User currently offlineOA412 From United States of America, joined Dec 2000, 5225 posts, RR: 25
Reply 24, posted (4 years 1 month 1 week 19 hours ago) and read 7472 times:

Quoting PITrules (Reply 23):
In the Australia thread its been mentioned UA will add a second daily LAX-SYD 744 flight for Dec and Jan.

The second flight operates daily from 1 Dec to 8 Jan. From 10 Jan to 30 Jan it will only operate 3 weekly.



Hughes Airwest - Top Banana In The West
25 PITrules : Thx, I missed that one
26 ETA Unknown : One the DL/VA agreement is signed off, I too think you'll see a DL 77L in MEL... and when that happens, you won't see one in SYD! And UA isn't going a
27 thegeek : What ever happenned to the Joint Venture between DJ & DL or whatever it was that they were going to do. Surely the logical thing is for DL to loo
28 ANstar : Given Christmas is when they can normally charge sky high fares - this could also be a tactic on UA's behalf to ensure that their competitors cant ch
29 ETA Unknown : If it's peak season you charge what you want and wait for your aircraft to fill. It will depart full. I can't see UA deploying millions of dollars of
30 PITrules : With an LAX-MEL flight, the SFO people would still be able to get to MEL via SFO-LAX-MEL, even though it is a bit longer than SFO-SYD-MEL. But either
31 thegeek : That's a pretty good point. I wonder if it makes sense to operate a LAX-SYD-MEL-LAX triangle? Or would SFO-SYD-MEL-SFO work out better? Doesn't seem
32 seabosdca : Thanks to their particular configurations (Pratt-powered 77Es can't have 656k MTOW) UA's 744s and 77Es have near-identical range. Without seeing thei
33 deltal1011man : Its on its way. DJ/VA/DL are codesharing now. I do agree with you. I believe DL will keep the Daily LAX-SYD on the 77L and let VA add any extra seats
34 hardiwv : I think you went straight to the point. SkyTeam is very weak in Australia, which has heavy presence of both Star and OW. I could even see a possible
35 peanuts : This is a very interesting thought. I heard a similar statement recently from a very reliable source. It's a definitely a possibility. I'm starting t
36 Jacobin777 : The competition is going to be fierce IMHO....
37 worldtraveler : DL execs have already said they have no intention of adding additional service from the US to Australia anytime in the foreseeable future. The LAX-SY
38 hardiwv : What I thought was a possible SYD-NRT DL-operated flight in view of NRT hub operation. Rgs,
39 worldtraveler : I would consider it possible as well... NW did operate it at one time. DL has smaller, more fuel efficient aircraft available now... and AUS is not s
40 ABpositive : NZ and to a lesser extent HA and FJ, offer one-stop to US mainland at competative prices as well. I think they also compete in this segment to an exte
41 Post contains links AusA380 : Interestingly enough the market must be picking up again between US and AUS as the Sydney Morning Herald is reporting that SQ is again pushing for rig
42 Post contains images huaiwei : On retrospect, if SQ did not hammer the Australian government for decades to fly on this route, do you think there would be this level of competition
43 LAXLocal : Not to hijack this thread but.....Do you think the profit margin is higher on this route via the pax? Or the cargo? LAXLocal
44 MaverickM11 : They do, but all of the incremental LAXSYD traffic has come primarily at the expense of cheap onestops on HA/FJ/NZ.
45 gemuser : Yes. There is no reason to belive it would not have happen, when it did. The old Australia/USA bilateral allowed it, so it would have happen. There w
46 Viscount724 : If memory correct, NW operated SYD-KIX, not SYD-NRT.
47 MaverickM11 : DL has trouble maintaining NRTBKK and NRTSIN, let alone a much longer flight to SYD that makes little sense to connect to from the US
48 worldtraveler : who said DL intends to compete in the market as a connecting carrier? If they serve the market, it will be w/ the intention of serving the local mark
49 VHMATHY : In this whole competition debate on the SYD-LAX route I dont see why QF is painted as the bad guy, they never had a monopoly on the route and several
50 MaverickM11 : Resulting in utter disaster. No one in their right mind would even consider that.
51 Post contains images worldtraveler : These kind of statements simply make we smile when I think of the opportunity to quote you in a couple years. DL may or may not fly the route but you
52 Post contains images MaverickM11 : Considering you've been wrong every time we've argued before, I'm willing to take that chance . With no frequent fliers or feed on either end what co
53 Post contains images commavia : Agreed. Delta flying from Narita to Sydney would be beyond ridiculous. Connections from the U.S. would be non-existent (who the h*ll would fly all th
54 AusA380 : There are people who would from Oz to the US via countries like Hong Kong, Japan, Taiwan etc for a couple of reason. Before the increase in number of
55 commavia : And that right there is precisely my point. For whatever minuscule proportion of the market is willing to transit via Asia, lower fare is the only po
56 SeeTheWorld : An utter disaster ... NRT-SYD on DL will never happen ... I'm looking forward to reminding you "in a couple of years." I think it's a pretty good bet
57 bobnwa : The failure on the route was the The only failure on the route was the result of the Austrailian government shutting it down, unless NWA stopped carry
58 gemuser : 1) The Japanese government shut it down because NW was breaking the terms of its Japanese route approval. 2) NW never carried KIX-NRT traffic. Neithe
59 MaverickM11 : Is this verifiably true? Because everything about the route screams disaster.
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