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Airbus 2010 1st Quarter Orders & Deliveries  
User currently offlineChiad From Norway, joined May 2006, 1131 posts, RR: 0
Posted (4 years 3 months 2 weeks 5 days 20 hours ago) and read 8235 times:

FI reports:
http://www.flightglobal.com/articles...-and-122-deliveries-for-first.html

60 orders (49 widebodies)
122 deliveries

22 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently offlineKappel From Suriname, joined Jul 2005, 3533 posts, RR: 17
Reply 1, posted (4 years 3 months 2 weeks 5 days 17 hours ago) and read 7906 times:

The percentage of widebodies is impressive. But interesting that they include the order from Hong Kong Airlines, but not the cancellation from Marsans.

see this thread: HK Airlines Firms A330 Order (by Flying-Tiger Apr 7 2010 in Civil Aviation)

But it looks like orders are picking up again for both A and B. At least to pre order-boom levels (250-300 per year).



L1011,733,734,73G,738,743,744,752,763,772,77W,DC855,DC863,DC930,DC950,MD11,MD88,306,319,320,321,343,346,ARJ85,CR7,E195
User currently offlinePM From Germany, joined Feb 2005, 6868 posts, RR: 63
Reply 2, posted (4 years 3 months 2 weeks 5 days 16 hours ago) and read 7680 times:

Quoting Kappel (Reply 1):
But interesting that they include the order from Hong Kong Airlines, but not the cancellation from Marsans.

Well, that is what has been reported but let's wait and see what the Airbus O&D spreadsheet says when it's issued.


User currently offlinescbriml From United Kingdom, joined Jul 2003, 12386 posts, RR: 47
Reply 3, posted (4 years 3 months 2 weeks 5 days 15 hours ago) and read 7572 times:
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Quoting PM (Reply 2):
Well, that is what has been reported but let's wait and see what the Airbus O&D spreadsheet says when it's issued.

Of course, but the article specifically says Airbus has no cancellations so far this year.   



Time flies like an arrow, but fruit flies like a banana!
User currently offlinePM From Germany, joined Feb 2005, 6868 posts, RR: 63
Reply 4, posted (4 years 3 months 2 weeks 5 days 15 hours ago) and read 7433 times:

Quoting scbriml (Reply 3):
Of course, but the article specifically says Airbus has no cancellations so far this year.

I put it to you, m'lud, that your average journo these days wouldn't think to dig even if you told him where potatoes come from. If Airbus don't announce cancellations then there aren't any. Simple!

Airbus know this so they don't include it in their press releases and the journosaps know no better than to swallow what they are given.

Bottom line - these six A330s were ordered by and built for Grupo Marsans. If they are then sold (again) to Hong Kong then a cancellation must there be in the fullness of time.

My guess is that the March Airbus O&D spreadsheet will quietly reduce the Grupo Marsans order by 6.

(But, as Gary Oldman says in "Batman Begins", I've been wrong before...)  


User currently offlineRubberJungle From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 5, posted (4 years 3 months 2 weeks 5 days 10 hours ago) and read 7053 times:

Quoting PM (Reply 4):
Airbus know this so they don't include it in their press releases and the journosaps know no better than to swallow what they are given.

Well...since the journo who wrote the story has his email at the top of it, why don't you email him and tell him that directly?

I'm sure that, since he writes for Flight International, he'd welcome being told he's an idiot who knows nothing about Airbus, and would really appreciate your guidance.  spin 

[Edited 2010-04-08 09:31:39]

User currently offlineCFBFrame From United States of America, joined May 2009, 531 posts, RR: 3
Reply 6, posted (4 years 3 months 2 weeks 5 days 10 hours ago) and read 7040 times:

Quoting PM (Reply 4):
Bottom line - these six A330s were ordered by and built for Grupo Marsans. If they are then sold (again) to Hong Kong then a cancellation must there be in the fullness of time.

My guess is that the March Airbus O&D spreadsheet will quietly reduce the Grupo Marsans order by 6.

The Grupo Marsans orders are still on the Airbus worldwide list and Hong Kong is listed at 22. It's hard to get something canceled off the Airbus spreadsheet, oh it happens but it takes years.


User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 30565 posts, RR: 84
Reply 7, posted (4 years 3 months 2 weeks 5 days 10 hours ago) and read 6953 times:
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Personally, I don't quite see what all the hub-bub is about.

Have HX actually taken delivery of those four A330-223s originally slated for A7? If they haven't, then I don't see any nefariousness on Airbus' part for continuing to show four of them for A7 plus an order for four more for HX. Once HX takes delivery of those birds, it would then strike me as proper to record a cancellation of four A332s for A7.

And have Grupo Marsans formally rejected those four frames? They must have some money invested in them for deposits and progress payments, plus they're holding a shedload of orders for A320s, A350s and A380s, not all of which were planned for A7.

I could therefore see a possibility where Airbus and GM agree to "defer" those four A332s to an indeterminate later date, keeping them on the books until GM decides the disposition of their entire Airbus orderbook.


User currently offlineRubberJungle From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 8, posted (4 years 3 months 2 weeks 5 days 9 hours ago) and read 6864 times:

Quote:
If they haven't, then I don't see any nefariousness on Airbus' part for continuing to show four of them for A7 plus an order for four more for HX.

Except, of course, that it would be a deliberate $800 million accounting error, which doesn't go down well with auditors.

My understanding is that the order is more complicated than the simple Airbus table suggests.


User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 30565 posts, RR: 84
Reply 9, posted (4 years 3 months 2 weeks 5 days 9 hours ago) and read 6836 times:
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Quoting RubberJungle (Reply 8):
Except, of course, that it would be a deliberate $800 million accounting error, which doesn't go down well with auditors.

I don't know how far along the planes were when A7 was forced to stop operations, so I don't know how much in deposits and progress payments they made, but since they never took delivery, they certainly never made the final payment.

As for HX, since they are taking pre-built frames, I expect their first check to Airbus will be for the full amount of each frame, handed over at time of delivery. So there were probably no deposit payments made on this order and certainly no progress payments, so Airbus has likely not yet received any monies from HX.

And even though A7 has ceased operations, to my knowledge they have not liquidated as a corporation. Also, since A7 is owned by Grupo Marsans, even if A7 has formally liquidated and ceased to exist as a corporate entity, GM might still have some claim on the order, if they no longer have any claim on the frames built to originally fulfill it.


User currently offlinescouseflyer From United Kingdom, joined Apr 2006, 3374 posts, RR: 9
Reply 10, posted (4 years 3 months 2 weeks 5 days 8 hours ago) and read 6733 times:

Quoting Stitch (Reply 9):

And even though A7 has ceased operations, to my knowledge they have not liquidated as a corporation. Also, since A7 is owned by Grupo Marsans, even if A7 has formally liquidated and ceased to exist as a corporate entity, GM might still have some claim on the order, if they no longer have any claim on the frames built to originally fulfill it.

I was wondering something along those lines GM still exist so may have deferred the order and HX taken the planes already built to get frames quickly.


User currently offlinescbriml From United Kingdom, joined Jul 2003, 12386 posts, RR: 47
Reply 11, posted (4 years 3 months 2 weeks 5 days 8 hours ago) and read 6585 times:
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Well, the O&D spreadsheet is available now and shows zero cancellations. Hong Kong shows +6 A330-200, while GM still shows 10, of which 4 have been delivered.


Time flies like an arrow, but fruit flies like a banana!
User currently offlinecorernagh14 From United Kingdom, joined Aug 2009, 79 posts, RR: 0
Reply 12, posted (4 years 3 months 2 weeks 5 days 7 hours ago) and read 6529 times:

Quoting PM (Reply 4):
Airbus know this so they don't include it in their press releases and the journosaps know no better than to swallow what they are given.

Well...since the journo who wrote the story has his email at the top of it, why don't you email him and tell him that directly?

I'm sure that, since he writes for Flight International, he'd welcome being told he's an idiot and would really appreciate your guidance.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 7):
Personally, I don't quite see what all the hub-bub is about.

Have HX actually taken delivery of those four A330-223s originally slated for A7? If they haven't, then I don't see any nefariousness on Airbus' part for continuing to show four of them for A7 plus an order for four more for HX. Once HX takes delivery of those birds, it would then strike me as proper to record a cancellation of four A332s for A7.

And have Grupo Marsans formally rejected those four frames? They must have some money invested in them for deposits and progress payments, plus they're holding a shedload of orders for A320s, A350s and A380s, not all of which were planned for A7.

As stitch says it is normal practice for Airbus (for years) to retain order on O&D until such times as the commercial terms and monies are sufficiently met by new buyer for cancellation term to apply. Another example is what we have seen on the 5 A340 500 Kingfisher aircraft cancelled in 2008 . As those a/c are delivered by Airbus to the new customer they reduce the Kingfisher order by one. In effect they retain some commercial control and possibly funds until they can be resold. Airbus are now trying to sell the last two A340 500 ex Kingfisher to VIPs although I think i saw somewhere that Tunisair my be taking delivery of MSN886 at some stage this year. Does anybody know anything about that?


User currently offlinePM From Germany, joined Feb 2005, 6868 posts, RR: 63
Reply 13, posted (4 years 3 months 2 weeks 5 days 3 hours ago) and read 5576 times:

OK, OK. I apologise.   

It was not my intention to impugn the reporting of Mr. Kaminski-Morrow as an individual but even FLIGHT can get their facts wrong and many news stories these days are uncritical rewrites of the press release.

But on this occasion I was wrong.

I admit it had never even occurred to me that Grupo Marsans may still intend to take these six A330s at a later date. If that is the case then of course there will be no cancellations.

In June and July of last year HSH Nordbank took two A330s originally ordered by Grupo Marsans. Each month the GM order was reduced by one. I expected the same thing to happen regarding the HK order for six. It hasn't.


User currently offlineCFBFrame From United States of America, joined May 2009, 531 posts, RR: 3
Reply 14, posted (4 years 3 months 2 weeks 5 days ago) and read 4650 times:

Quoting Stitch (Reply 7):
They must have some money invested in them for deposits and progress payments, plus they're holding a shedload of orders for A320s, A350s and A380s, not all of which were planned for A7.

If they do they're not reflected on the spreadsheet. The only order they have is for the 330-200.

Now Stitch and PM, since the two of you appear to know quite a bit about these frames and GM. These birds were originally painted in A7 colors and then repainted white once the airline went bust. I get negotiating payments and finding a new buyer/lessor/note assumer. When GM dumped ownership, did they not negotiate removing themselves from the Airbus deals and transfer rights to a government entity; which is why I think the 320s, 350s, and 380 are removed from their line. In the case of the 330s they were not included in the handover to the government so GM was forced to retain rights until Airbus (or someone else) found an entity to assume the GM position? Or the economic penalty to cancel was too high for GM to pay (which is what happened to SAA, forcing that company to hold their orders) so they hold until someone else assumes the liability? If that's the case, HX may hold an option of either taking the frames or getting in line and getting totally new ones. Which would then explain why both orders remain listed?


User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 30565 posts, RR: 84
Reply 15, posted (4 years 3 months 2 weeks 4 days 23 hours ago) and read 4528 times:
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Quoting CFBFrame (Reply 14):
If they do they're not reflected on the spreadsheet. The only order they have is for the 330-200.

I guess they're all "commitments", so that would explain why they don't show up as firm orders.

Quoting CFBFrame (Reply 14):
Now Stitch and PM, since the two of you appear to know quite a bit about these frames and GM.

I can't speak for PM, but I admit I'm generally guessing here. But if A7 have not formally cancelled their order, I would think it would remain on the books until they do. Airbus has received monies from A7 as both deposits and progress payments, so I would not be surprised if Airbus has to account for those monies until one of the following happen: delivery of the planes, formal cancellation and refund, or A7 being found in breach of the contract and therefore in forfeit of any refund (which might require one or more Court Orders).


User currently offlineCFBFrame From United States of America, joined May 2009, 531 posts, RR: 3
Reply 16, posted (4 years 3 months 2 weeks 4 days 22 hours ago) and read 4242 times:

Quoting Stitch (Reply 15):
delivery of the planes, formal cancellation and refund, or A7 being found in breach of the contract and therefore in forfeit of any refund (which might require one or more Court Orders).

Thanks


User currently offlinePM From Germany, joined Feb 2005, 6868 posts, RR: 63
Reply 17, posted (4 years 3 months 2 weeks 4 days 22 hours ago) and read 4193 times:

Grupo Marsans ordered 12 A330s on 28th December 2006.

They took delivery of their first on 28th August 2008. In time, they took delivery of four, all of which flew for Air Comet.

Airbus announced a "firm" order from GM for 61 planes on 7th November 2008. This order included 5 more A330s, 10 A350s and 4 A380s.

http://www.airbus.com/en/presscentre...1_07_grupo_marsans_firm_order.html

But this order never was "firm". That is, none of those planes ever appeared on the monthly Airbus O&D sheets. The only GM order ever recorded on the O&D sheets was the original one for 12 A330s.

(I have to wonder why Airbus described the order for 61 as "firm" when it seems not to have been.   )

Then in June 2009 (1) and July 2010 (1) the GM order for 12 was reduced by 2 as HSH Nordbank took over two A330s that had been built but not delivered.

The GM order has stayed the same since then: ordered (10), received (4).

My guess (while still wiping the egg from my face) is more or less as Stitch suggests:

Quoting Stitch (Reply 15):
Airbus has to account for those monies until one of the following happen: delivery of the planes, formal cancellation and refund, or A7 being found in breach of the contract and therefore in forfeit of any refund (which might require one or more Court Orders)

Airbus have resold the six frames to HK but they can't take the GM order off the books until the contract is legally torn up.


User currently offlineCFBFrame From United States of America, joined May 2009, 531 posts, RR: 3
Reply 18, posted (4 years 3 months 2 weeks 4 days 13 hours ago) and read 3285 times:

Quoting PM (Reply 17):
My guess (while still wiping the egg from my face) is more or less as Stitch suggests:

Don't beat yourself up, we still have respect for you!!!!

But was it TAM who had the relationship with GM? There was some country in Latin America that took control of GM's ownership position, and that country negotiated with Airbus for control of the GM a/c rights. I also thought that country was Chile and not Brazil? TAM does show orders for 320s, 330s, and 350s which might explain why Airbus continued calling the order "firm". TAM also shows they have 2 340-500s as well. The only unexplained is how Airbus accounted for the cancellation of the 380s in the announcement PM mentioned.

From all of this discussion, I've learned that it's really hard to get an order canceled from the Airbus spreadsheet. The sheet shows current and former operators but it does not show A7. A7 operated Airbus a/c so it does not fit the method used on the spreadsheet.


User currently offlinePM From Germany, joined Feb 2005, 6868 posts, RR: 63
Reply 19, posted (4 years 3 months 2 weeks 3 days 21 hours ago) and read 2946 times:

Quoting CFBFrame (Reply 18):
There was some country in Latin America that took control of GM's ownership position, and that country negotiated with Airbus for control of the GM a/c rights.

Are you perhaps thinking of the troubled relationship between Grupo Marsans and Aerolineas Argentinas? For most of the past decade Grupo Marsans owned Aerolineas Argentinas and many of the 73 (!) planes reputedly ordered were destined for AR.

Grupo Marsans no longer has any stake in AR. The airline is again owned by the government.

Quoting CFBFrame (Reply 18):
TAM also shows they have 2 340-500s as well.

For the record, these are the two ex-AC planes.

Quoting CFBFrame (Reply 18):
...the Airbus spreadsheet. The sheet shows current and former operators but it does not show A7

In fact, it doesn't show all former operators. It shows all current operators plus those who ever ordered at least one plane. Air Comet never ordered any planes (GM did) and they no longer operate any so they no longer appear.

In fact, it's all rather pathetic. In total, Airbus announced 73 "firm" orders from Grupo Marsans of which just four were ever delivered. A cautionary tale...


User currently offlineCFBFrame From United States of America, joined May 2009, 531 posts, RR: 3
Reply 20, posted (4 years 3 months 2 weeks 3 days 4 hours ago) and read 2527 times:

Quoting PM (Reply 19):
Are you perhaps thinking of the troubled relationship between Grupo Marsans and Aerolineas Argentinas? For most of the past decade Grupo Marsans owned Aerolineas Argentinas and many of the 73 (!) planes reputedly ordered were destined for AR

Yeah!!! So, then they should be canceled because Aerolineas Argrntinas certainly has not replaced those orders. Based on that, can we trust the reporting? 73 orders, company goes bust and the sheet shows there are still more a/c to deliver but nothing about the other 63? French accounting must have very broad rules on dealing with cancellations?


User currently offlinejdevora From Spain, joined Aug 2006, 351 posts, RR: 7
Reply 21, posted (4 years 3 months 2 weeks 3 days 2 hours ago) and read 2461 times:

Quoting CFBFrame (Reply 18):
But was it TAM who had the relationship with GM? There was some country in Latin America that took control of GM's ownership position, and that country negotiated with Airbus for control of the GM a/c rights. I also thought that country was Chile and not Brazil? TAM does show orders for 320s, 330s, and 350s which might explain why Airbus continued calling the order "firm". TAM also shows they have 2 340-500s as well. The only unexplained is how Airbus accounted for the cancellation of the 380s in the announcement PM mentioned.

I followed the GM mega-order since the begining. Even when it was announced as firm, as PM says, it never hit the order book. From GM reputation, my guess is that they didn't put all the agreed money on time in Airbus's hands
They paid some deposits, because the very trying to save it transfer part of this "commitment" to Aerolineas Argentinas before they went out of bussines

Quoting CFBFrame (Reply 18):
From all of this discussion, I've learned that it's really hard to get an order canceled from the Airbus spreadsheet. The sheet shows current and former operators but it does not show A7. A7 operated Airbus a/c so it does not fit the method used on the spreadsheet.

My understanding is that they only list current operators, other way the numbers will not add up (delivered= in operation + write off's) and they usually do (at least the few times that I cared to check it).
Cheers
JD


User currently offlinePM From Germany, joined Feb 2005, 6868 posts, RR: 63
Reply 22, posted (4 years 3 months 2 weeks 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 2348 times:

Quoting CFBFrame (Reply 20):
Based on that, can we trust the reporting?

Yes.   

Quoting CFBFrame (Reply 20):
73 orders, company goes bust and the sheet shows there are still more a/c to deliver but nothing about the other 63?

Actually, the Airbus press release regarding the order for 61 notwithstanding, only 12 orders were ever firm. Four were delivered. Two were assumed by HSH Nordbank and the remaining six are the subject of this discussion.

What is certainly still unexplained is how Airbus could report the big order for 61 as "firm" when it turns out it wasn't.

Quoting CFBFrame (Reply 20):
French accounting must have very broad rules on dealing with cancellations?

I doubt it. No more so than the USA or other developed countries.

But orders can't be cancelled until the lawyers say so. Air Comet has gone bust. Grupo Marsans hasn't. They may still want to take delivery of the remaining six A330s at a later date. (Though I doubt it.) Or they may still be negotiating with Airbus regarding deposits, cancellations fees, and the like. Till that process is complete the orders still stand since they must still appear as assets (or liabilities?!) on the Airbus books.


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