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Some Questions About The UK Long Haul Market  
User currently offlinevirginblue4 From United Kingdom, joined Jun 2008, 889 posts, RR: 0
Posted (4 years 2 weeks 5 hours ago) and read 10317 times:

Evening, A.Netters,

I was at Heathrow the other day picking up some family from Terminal 3 after their flight from JFK with AA, and i will be returning there again on tuesday, to drop them off, and of course spend a few hours spotting!  

Anyway, while we were on the top floor of the Terminal 3 car park, it gave some fantastic views accross the airport. The airport was full with widebodies!

AC 330's and 763's,
AA had 3 772's that I could see, probably more hiding,
VS had 2 744's and a few 346's,
BA was jammed full with their 772's and 744's,
QF had 2 744's and an A380,
SQ had an A380,
Jet Airways 77W,
Gulf Air A340,
Malaysia 744
United Airlines 772's
Delta 764
And many many more! And this is just LHR!! LGW, STN, MAN, BHX, EDI, GLA even LCY (although only 318's) all have long haul flights aswell.

It got me into thinking just how big the UK long haul market really is and now I have a few questions in which I hope members on here will have the answers to.

What are the busiest routes out of the UK to long haul destinations? (especially from LHR & LGW)

Are there any new routes we are likely to see in the future?

What kind of routes, do we hope will never fail? (JFK etc)

Is there room for a new player on the market? Or will they just be eaten up by the likes of BA and VS?

Anymore information is greatly apprciated!!

Jordan


 


The amazing tale of flight.
51 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineLHRlocal From United Kingdom, joined Jan 2008, 261 posts, RR: 0
Reply 1, posted (4 years 2 weeks 5 hours ago) and read 10262 times:

Quoting virginblue4 (Thread starter):
What are the busiest routes out of the UK to long haul destinations? (especially from LHR & LGW)

Well, from LHR, it'll be something like this (number of flights):

1.New York JFK
2.Dubai
3.Los Angeles
4.Chicago
5.Hong Kong
6.Tokyo
7.Toronto
8.San Francisco
9.New York Newark
10.Miami

(This is taken from my own database starting from August 2005)


User currently offlinevirginblue4 From United Kingdom, joined Jun 2008, 889 posts, RR: 0
Reply 2, posted (4 years 2 weeks 5 hours ago) and read 10243 times:

Quoting LHRlocal (Reply 1):
1.New York JFK
2.Dubai
3.Los Angeles
4.Chicago
5.Hong Kong
6.Tokyo
7.Toronto
8.San Francisco
9.New York Newark
10.Miami

I was expecting something like that. But Dubai, did suprise me! Didn't mean that was such a busy route!



The amazing tale of flight.
User currently offlineRJ111 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 3, posted (4 years 2 weeks 5 hours ago) and read 10203 times:

The rest of the scheduled long haul market from the UK combined is a fraction of LHR's ones, probably something silly like 5%.

As for the busiest routes from LHR These are NYC, ORD, LAX, DXB, SIN and HKG in no particular order.


User currently offlinemigair54 From Spain, joined Jun 2007, 1494 posts, RR: 0
Reply 4, posted (4 years 2 weeks 5 hours ago) and read 10142 times:

Quoting virginblue4 (Reply 2):
I was expecting something like that. But Dubai, did suprise me! Didn't mean that was such a busy route!

Actually from the UK maybe the biggest market is NYC but very close must be DXB, EK flies daily to London (LHR &LGW), Birmingham, Manchester, Newcastle and Glasgow, and I think they will add some more routes in the future.......


User currently onlineViscount724 From Switzerland, joined Oct 2006, 24115 posts, RR: 23
Reply 5, posted (4 years 2 weeks 5 hours ago) and read 10112 times:

Quoting virginblue4 (Reply 2):
I was expecting something like that. But Dubai, did suprise me! Didn't mean that was such a busy route!

Unlike many other cities on that list, most passengers between LHR and DXB are only connecting there to/from much larger O&D markets like India and Australia. If the list was ranked by O&D traffic, DXB would be close to the bottom


User currently offlinevirginblue4 From United Kingdom, joined Jun 2008, 889 posts, RR: 0
Reply 6, posted (4 years 2 weeks 4 hours ago) and read 10058 times:

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 5):
O&D traffic

This might sound like a stupid question but what does it stand for? Origin and Destination?



The amazing tale of flight.
User currently offlineseemyseems From United Kingdom, joined Jan 2009, 967 posts, RR: 7
Reply 7, posted (4 years 2 weeks 4 hours ago) and read 9945 times:

LGW: MCO, DXB (?)

MAN: MCO, DXB, PHL, ATL...

PHL, ATL and DXB are most probably heavy connecting routes.



seemyseems
User currently offlineRJ111 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 8, posted (4 years 2 weeks 4 hours ago) and read 9919 times:

Quoting virginblue4 (Reply 6):
This might sound like a stupid question but what does it stand for? Origin and Destination?

  

Correct, and as you have probably guessed, the O&D traffic of an airport is the traffic that begins or ends it journey at that airport - discounting connection traffic.


User currently offlinevirginblue4 From United Kingdom, joined Jun 2008, 889 posts, RR: 0
Reply 9, posted (4 years 2 weeks 4 hours ago) and read 9877 times:

Quoting RJ111 (Reply 8):
Correct, and as you have probably guessed, the O&D traffic of an airport is the traffic that begins or ends it journey at that airport - discounting connection traffic.

Yeah, thats what I thought. Thanks very much for clarification!



The amazing tale of flight.
User currently offlineoneworld77 From United Kingdom, joined Sep 2008, 238 posts, RR: 0
Reply 10, posted (4 years 2 weeks 4 hours ago) and read 9869 times:

Hard to say what routes we'll see in the future. There are some that need exploiting (South America - but will the BA/IB deal put the kibosh on that??). Places like Cameroon, Gabon, Zambia, Angola, western China, southern Chine, Northwest Chine - they all seem underserved. But that could be for a reason.

The UK longhaul market is contracting - particularly in comparison to the US and Middle East longhaul market. (Look at the whooping and hollering that our American cousins make when a US based carrier serves CAI, KWI, DXB, ACC, LOS, JNB etc. All also look at the growth of EY/EK/QR - majority of it on longhaul (6+ hours) routes.

In Australia longhaul growth is coming from the likes of Jetstar and external carriers - not from QF.

Which brings me to another point, longhaul can mean anything. From a crew perspective, longhaul is not neccessarily LHR-JFK (7-8hours) but that would be for a lot of pax. Longhaul for crew could be NRT, HKG, SIN all in the 11 - 14 hour category. Airlines can get a lot of aircraft utilisation out of medium-long destinations (JFK) than out of SIN/SYD and therefore the former are more attractive and true longhaul seem least attractive.

If I were betting man I would see longhaul growth from the UK by carriers other than our own and no I don't see another BA or VS coming on the scene - I do see more niche players like Privateair/OpenSkies/BA LCY-JFK service and at the other end the long-awaited RyanAir X or Ryanair Atlantic - "pack em high - charge em by the minute" kind of service.

Wiser heads might have other ideas though!!!



Flown - EI;BA;RE;FR;WW;TW;TS;US;JP;JT;AT;QF;JQ;VB;NC;TR;D7;AA;IB;AF;SN;LX;SR;LH;AY;CX;CP;9K;9W;IX;AI;IC;EK;EY;GF;QR;BE;N
User currently offlineVinnieWinnie From United States of America, joined Nov 2005, 770 posts, RR: 0
Reply 11, posted (4 years 2 weeks 4 hours ago) and read 9858 times:

My question is as follows: why is the London long haul market that big? What has made LHR the most sought after airport in the world, and where does all that long haul demand come from compared to comparable and/or bigger cities in the world? Is it a combination of big businesses, tourism, foreign born immigrants and the generations after combined with a big hub? How about british people? Are they more inclined to travel? There is something peculiar about LHR which is striking and uttermost amazing here which i find very difficult to explain.

User currently offlineANstar From United Kingdom, joined Nov 2003, 5082 posts, RR: 6
Reply 12, posted (4 years 2 weeks 4 hours ago) and read 9807 times:

Quoting VinnieWinnie (Reply 11):
My question is as follows: why is the London long haul market that big? What has made LHR the most sought after airport in the world, and where does all that long haul demand come from compared to comparable and/or bigger cities in the world?

London definately has links to the world.

And lots of cities/countreis are tied to the UK more than others ie Canada, South Africa, Australia hence the amount fo flights to those places say over CDG or AMS

PS love the Virginblue ref Jordan!

[Edited 2010-04-11 13:27:33]

User currently onlineViscount724 From Switzerland, joined Oct 2006, 24115 posts, RR: 23
Reply 13, posted (4 years 2 weeks 3 hours ago) and read 9737 times:

Quoting VinnieWinnie (Reply 11):
has made LHR the most sought after airport in the world, and where does all that long haul demand come from compared to comparable and/or bigger cities in the world? Is it a combination of big businesses, tourism, foreign born immigrants and the generations after combined with a big hub?

It's a combination of all of those things. London is also the world's largest financial center, ahead of NYC in most surveys.

And is London's longhaul demand really that much higher than other metropolitan areas of similar population and living standards, NYC for example?


User currently offlinebrilondon From Canada, joined Aug 2005, 4064 posts, RR: 1
Reply 14, posted (4 years 2 weeks 3 hours ago) and read 9741 times:

Quoting VinnieWinnie (Reply 11):
My question is as follows: why is the London long haul market that big? What has made LHR the most sought after airport in the world, and where does all that long haul demand come from compared to comparable and/or bigger cities in the world? Is it a combination of big businesses, tourism, foreign born immigrants and the generations after combined with a big hub? How about british people? Are they more inclined to travel? There is something peculiar about LHR which is striking and uttermost amazing here which i find very difficult to explain.

The biggest reason is that it is one of the most diverse airports in the world. You can connect to anywhere from anywhere here. Also, Britain is always been a major destination not only for tourists but also businesspeople as it is a major financial hub. Americans, with exception of a little skirmish 237 years ago, like the British and many still have ties to this country through their heritage. They also like going where people speak English although I can't for the life of me understand some of what the Brits are saying myself, even though I lived there for 6 years.

[Edited 2010-04-11 13:39:28]


Rush for ever; Yankees all the way!!
User currently offlineoneworld77 From United Kingdom, joined Sep 2008, 238 posts, RR: 0
Reply 15, posted (4 years 2 weeks 3 hours ago) and read 9721 times:

Quoting VinnieWinnie (Reply 11):

Commonwealth/Empire meant that the UK was first out of the traps in terms of developing the Long Haul market. More recently (60's/70's) facilities gave it the advantage that (then) didn't exist in PAR, AMS or FRA. Immigration helped too at this point.

Since the 80's it's simply been money, the City of London overtook New York as the major stock exchange (in terms of profit and stock exchanged - there are more companies listed in New York) and airlines could fill the front with fare payers and down the back was (in comparison to Continental Europe) cheaper. The UK has it's own draw for tourism and is currently perceived as easier and friendlier to enter than the US and the pax from the UK are willing to try some of the more unusual places in the world on their own.

With the recession/depression/correction (delete as you see fit!!) it will be interesting to see if the UK still has the draw it has now in 20 years time? The City of London isn't as regulation free as it once was.

Also, a point to note there are very few direct flights to Australia from the UK in comparison to what there used to be. Most UK pax transfer in DXB/AUH/SIN/HKG etc - so we are seeing a drop off in some sectors.



Flown - EI;BA;RE;FR;WW;TW;TS;US;JP;JT;AT;QF;JQ;VB;NC;TR;D7;AA;IB;AF;SN;LX;SR;LH;AY;CX;CP;9K;9W;IX;AI;IC;EK;EY;GF;QR;BE;N
User currently offlineRJ111 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 16, posted (4 years 2 weeks 3 hours ago) and read 9689 times:

Quoting VinnieWinnie (Reply 11):
My question is as follows: why is the London long haul market that big? What has made LHR the most sought after airport in the world, and where does all that long haul demand come from compared to comparable and/or bigger cities in the world

Because not so long ago London was the centre of the biggest ever Empire, and whilst that is no more, the international ties certainly remain to a large extent meaning travel between these places is elevated. Indeed, every airline in the OP is from a former colony. Similarly in CDG and MAD you will see a lot of services to Africa and South America respectively, which gives the IB/BA merger a lot of potential.


User currently offlineoneworld77 From United Kingdom, joined Sep 2008, 238 posts, RR: 0
Reply 17, posted (4 years 2 weeks 3 hours ago) and read 9681 times:

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 13):
And is London's longhaul demand really that much higher than other metropolitan areas of similar population and living standards, NYC for example?

Yes - by far. Back in day the UK had to (prestige, government links, post etc) operate to SIN/KUL/BWN/SYD/DRW/MEL/AKL/CPT/MRU/BOM/DEL/CCU/DAC/BGI/NBO/DAR/ACC etc etc. The US has never had to do this and way fewer US citizens have passports and those that don't have citizenship/green cards are prone never to leave so as not to risk being caught re-entering.

I know the British press loves hammering the Immigrant and portraying them all as illegal, but the vast majority of people here, born overseas, have the legal right to be in the UK, through payback as a result of Empire or the EU.

In the US - the vast majority of Immigrants are illegal.



Flown - EI;BA;RE;FR;WW;TW;TS;US;JP;JT;AT;QF;JQ;VB;NC;TR;D7;AA;IB;AF;SN;LX;SR;LH;AY;CX;CP;9K;9W;IX;AI;IC;EK;EY;GF;QR;BE;N
User currently offlinedirectorguy From Egypt, joined Jul 2008, 1640 posts, RR: 11
Reply 18, posted (4 years 2 weeks 3 hours ago) and read 9603 times:

London is simply one of the largest O&D markets in the Europe. Connecting traffic for BA I think peaked at 40% or so in the mid 1990s. Compare this to the other European hubs, and you will see how big demand for travel is to/from the UK. Airlines like KL tend to rely much more on connecting traffic, and while Germany has good O&D, the actual city of Frankfurt isn't that big, which means LH needs a good network to feed their hub there
You trace this to how Great Britain pioneered some of the first air route networks in the world. Imperial Airways stretched from London to Suez to Karachi to Sydney, London to New York and Toronto (remember that Canada and Australia were very much white dominions within the British Empire), London to South Africa. The number of seats that airline offered is the equivelent of flying an F70 between the UK and Australia once a week with 10 or so stops but the impact was huge; and once the necessary technology came along a few decades later, BOAC continued the tradition. BA continues to do so the same-but so do VS and foreign airlines like EK, AA and UA collectively fly millions of pax to the UK every year.
The reason the UK longhaul market has 'contracted' (or at least BA's share has) is because everyone else has grown. An exotic foreign airline no longer operates a few weekly service using the 707, it's multiple daily widebodies. Competiton is intense, yields are eroding in many cases, but the fact remains that for tourism London is an insanely popular city. France is technically the most visit country in the world, but as to what the most visited city is, I wouldn't be surprised if it's London, not Paris.


User currently offlinegilesdavies From United Kingdom, joined Dec 2003, 2987 posts, RR: 2
Reply 19, posted (4 years 2 weeks 3 hours ago) and read 9581 times:



Quoting migair54 (Reply 4):
Quoting virginblue4 (Reply 2):
I was expecting something like that. But Dubai, did suprise me! Didn't mean that was such a busy route!

Actually from the UK maybe the biggest market is NYC but very close must be DXB, EK flies daily to London (LHR &LGW), Birmingham, Manchester, Newcastle and Glasgow, and I think they will add some more routes in the future.......

NYC maybe the biggest route passenger wise from LHR, but it makes me wonder if DXB may actually be bigger than NYC for traffic from all UK airports...

Flights to Dubai from UK

Manchester - Dubai
950 seats a day (1x 77W and 1x A380)

Birmingham - Dubai
880 seats a day (2x 77W)

Newcastle - Dubai
280 seats a day (1x A330)

Glasgow - Dubai
440 seats a day (1x 77W)

Gatwick - Dubai
1200 seats a day (3x 77W)

TOTAL
3710 seats in each direction


Flights to New York

Manchester - New York (EWR/JFK)
720 seats a day (4x 757 CO/DL/AA)

Birmingham - New York (EWR)
180 seats a day (CO 757)

Edinburgh - New York (EWR)
360 seats a day (CO 2x 757)

Glasgow - New York (EWR)
180 seats a day (CO 757)

Bristol - New York (EWR)
180 seats a day (CO 757)

Belfast - New York (EWR)
180 seats a day (CO 757)

TOTAL
1790 seats in each direction

I've done the numbers from all UK airports except LHR for both routes... When I look at the LHR timetables it confuses me! SO will leave that for someone else to work out!

I have based this on flights operating this summer!

So far just based on my numbers (which I am happy to be corrected if wrong and have rounded them up or down), NYC is 2000 seats short of DXB. Even though LHR-NYC probably has more seats than LHR-DXB, is it really 2000 more?!

[Edited 2010-04-11 14:13:00]

User currently offlineRJ111 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 20, posted (4 years 2 weeks 3 hours ago) and read 9531 times:

Quoting directorguy (Reply 18):
France is technically the most visit country in the world, but as to what the most visited city is, I wouldn't be surprised if it's London, not Paris.

That's because so many people go on camping holidays to France from places like the UK, Germany, The lowlands etc - indeed i've done a fair share myself. I believe London is the biggest tourist destination in the world.


User currently offlineoneworld77 From United Kingdom, joined Sep 2008, 238 posts, RR: 0
Reply 21, posted (4 years 2 weeks 3 hours ago) and read 9514 times:

Quoting directorguy (Reply 18):
The reason the UK longhaul market has 'contracted' (or at least BA's share has) is because everyone else has grown.

All airlines share has - even EK's. Their available seats have increased however.



Flown - EI;BA;RE;FR;WW;TW;TS;US;JP;JT;AT;QF;JQ;VB;NC;TR;D7;AA;IB;AF;SN;LX;SR;LH;AY;CX;CP;9K;9W;IX;AI;IC;EK;EY;GF;QR;BE;N
User currently offlinedavid_itl From United Kingdom, joined Jun 2001, 7330 posts, RR: 14
Reply 22, posted (4 years 2 weeks 3 hours ago) and read 9494 times:
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Think these may be the 3 top destinations out of the UK and the proportion of pax that LHR has.

UK-DXB = 3,662,324 pax. LHR = 47.64% of pax
UK-JFK = 2,747,631 pax LHR = 90.21% of pax
UK-EWR = 1,740,427 pax. LHR = 57.63% of pax


User currently offlineoneworld77 From United Kingdom, joined Sep 2008, 238 posts, RR: 0
Reply 23, posted (4 years 2 weeks 3 hours ago) and read 9473 times:

Quoting david_itl (Reply 22):

When you see that figure - it is truly amazing. 15 years ago - GF was the prestige ME carrier and who would've thought so many of us would be using DXB as the major transfer point!!!



Flown - EI;BA;RE;FR;WW;TW;TS;US;JP;JT;AT;QF;JQ;VB;NC;TR;D7;AA;IB;AF;SN;LX;SR;LH;AY;CX;CP;9K;9W;IX;AI;IC;EK;EY;GF;QR;BE;N
User currently offlinevirginblue4 From United Kingdom, joined Jun 2008, 889 posts, RR: 0
Reply 24, posted (4 years 2 weeks 3 hours ago) and read 9435 times:

Thanks everybody for the responses, very interesting!

Where can I find these timetables that "gilesdavies" is talking about?

A few more quick questions:

How many flights are there daily from:

LHR-JFK?
LHR-LAX?
LHR-DXB?
LHR-EWR?

One more question, what about TLV? I'm not sure if that counts as a long haul, but what are the loads like for there? And how many daily flights from the UK? I know U2 operate the route.
Jordan

[Edited 2010-04-11 14:33:38]


The amazing tale of flight.
25 gilesdavies : Just went to the relevent UK airport and airline websites and also a bit of guess work from personal knowledge of the frequencies and aircraft types
26 david_itl : EK is 5 daily, BA think for it's 2 and VS is 1. Don't know which other airlines offer LHR-DXB but I guess BG may be a candidate with 3 or 4 flights a
27 Viscount724 : Canada's British links are getting smaller every year due to immigration. About 47% of the 5 million+ residents of metropolitan Toronto now have a mo
28 Peteinmiami : I am curious to know where do you get that from, because as of 2006, the United States accepts more legal immigrants as permanent residents than any
29 Peteinmiami : The Illegal immigrant population of the United States is estimated to be between 7 and 20 million. The majority of the illegal immigrants are from Mex
30 oneworld77 : Trying to find where I read the figures. I'll have to come back to you on that one. Although legal immigrants in numbers may have increased - the maj
31 Peteinmiami : One more time where do you get that from?I do not know how the system work in the UK, but in the US if you are a legal immigrant you are free to work
32 Post contains links Jacobin777 : Long-haul, from a few years ago, New York, Dubai and Chicago are the top three markets to London. "Nearly 1.9 million air passengers traveled between
33 vv701 : Perhaps as an American you might ask why the main language in the USA is English. Of course most of us are familiar with local communities in the USA
34 VinnieWinnie : The topic is very interesting. Seems like British ties to the world 60 years after the empire ended are amazingly strong given the number of people an
35 vv701 : A total of 4,344,886 passengers flew between the UK and the UAE in 2009. Six UK airports, BHX, GLA and NCL in addition to LGW, LHR and MAN each contr
36 rajrs : LHR-BOM-LHR Total 6 daily flights Jet Airways- 2 (77w) British Airways - 2 (747 + 777) Air India - 1 (77w) Kingfisher - 1 (332)
37 Post contains links david_itl : Merely as an indicator of how it was back around 2003/2004, take a look at the prospects at MAN for an Emirates 5th freedom service to IAH. Most of t
38 cornish : Over 70% of all traffic at DXB is transfer/transit. Less than 30% is true O&D. Most of the major carriers, the BA, VS, LHs of this world you'd exp
39 readytotaxi : Do busy routes offer the biggest profit each flight, ie Business and First. Is there a way of finding this out per airline per route?
40 mutu : A number of posters have mentioned the hostoric links between the UK and many parts of the world and this is a valid reason indeed fpr the diversity o
41 brilondon : I rather fly to LHR then to AMS or CDG. That's not to say that LHR is a great airport to fly to but it far better then those two crap holes.
42 cornish : No. Often busy routes with a lot of competition means keen pricing and smaller yields. Conversely some routes with limited services but a key busines
43 AlexEU : Why do Emirates serve both Heathrow and Gatwick?
44 mutu : Well because it is a DXB based carrier looking to pull as much traffic in to /through DXB as it can. LGW and LHR have elements of their catchment tha
45 seabosdca : This is simply incorrect. According to census data, there are approximately 31 million foreign-born, permanent residents of the US. Of those, about 1
46 Post contains links Arsenal@LHR : Another factor overlooked is that Brits themselves are a nation of travellers/explorers, always have been and always will be. You go to the deepest pa
47 Post contains images baexecutive : I love how we think that by speaking slower and louder we think that non-English speaking people can understand us perfectly. I remember a friend of
48 LX138 : The UK is the world's 7th largest economy, and London is the largest metropolitan area in Europe, that's simply why it has a huge longhaul (let alone
49 Post contains links david_itl : The CAA have got their provisional stats for March out now so you can see the traffic flows. For example, for DXB: BHX 046346 up 19.14% LGW 056789 up
50 huaiwei : Seems like a chicken and egg situation here. Do airlines flock to LHR for its diversity, or LHR is diverse because airlines flock there? The first tw
51 Viscount724 : I try to avoid CDG, although it's better than LHR in my opinion. But AMS is far and away a more convenient connecting hub than LHR. What don't you li
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