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Future Pilot Shortage?  
User currently offlinem11stephen From United States of America, joined Aug 2008, 1247 posts, RR: 1
Posted (4 years 1 week 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 16135 times:

Hey there, what does the future look like for pilots in the US? Lately, I have heard that there is going to be a vast number of pilots retiring soon, due to the age 65 rule, supposedly creating a pilot shortage. How true is that? According to airlinepilotcentral.com there are more then 7,200 pilots currently on furlough in the US. In addition to that number, I'm sure there are still former pilots from Aloha, ATA, Skybus, Champion, EOS, Maxjet, Pace, Independence Air, etc. unable to find employment as pilots. I personally think this "imminent pilot shortage" is complete BS.

It was my dream to one day be a pilot but I took a reality check and realized that it wouldn't be the smartest idea to go into that field now. If a pilot shortage magically develops I plan on attending ATP in Chicago while finishing my Bachelors of Architecture and Business degrees. Anyone looking into joining the airline industry needs a plan b.  

Thank you for your help!
M11stephen


My opinions, statements, etc. are my own and do not have any association with those of any employer.
124 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineFly2HMO From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 1, posted (4 years 1 week 1 day ago) and read 16026 times:

Quoting m11stephen (Thread starter):
Lately, I have heard that there is going to be a vast number of pilots retiring soon, due to the age 65 rule,

They've been saying that for the past 10 years.

Quoting m11stephen (Thread starter):
How true is that?

Depends on who you ask. From my point of view, currently, there's a major surplus of pilots, nobody is hiring much, and the recession is to blame as well.

I do remember a couple of years ago (07/08) my school was having major trouble keeping flight instructors because they were leaving for the airlines so quick. Well, now almost all of those same instructors are furloughed and a couple were lucky enough to work again at my school.

Quoting m11stephen (Thread starter):
I plan on attending ATP

Bad choice. They're little more than a shiny-jet-syndrome-infused pilot assembly line and a rip off. And yes this told to me by former students at ATP.

You're much better of at a community college with a respectable 141 flight program.

Quoting m11stephen (Thread starter):
I personally think this "imminent pilot shortage" is complete BS.

Aviation is an extremely volatile environment. One day there can be a pilot-hiring frenzy, the next there can be a mass exodus.

What I'm certain will create a pilot shortage is that one bill congress was trying to pass raising hour minimums for certain certificates. Don't know what's the status on that.

[Edited 2010-04-13 15:53:07]

User currently offlineVonRichtofen From Canada, joined Nov 2000, 4626 posts, RR: 37
Reply 2, posted (4 years 1 week 1 day ago) and read 16002 times:

I've been hearing about the "imminent pilot shortage within 5 years" since I was in high school (mid 90's). Yet there's still thousands of pilots in the US willing to work for poverty wages.


I'll believe it when I see it.



Word
User currently offlinedbo861 From United States of America, joined May 2004, 861 posts, RR: 1
Reply 3, posted (4 years 1 week 1 day ago) and read 15990 times:

Quoting m11stephen (Thread starter):
t was my dream to one day be a pilot but I took a reality check and realized that it wouldn't be the smartest idea to go into that field now.

This is why there will be a pilot shortage. Many people are realizing that the aviation industry is not as glamorous as it once was. Add to that how expensive pilot training has become..especially in this economy, has led to a decrease in new pilot trainees. While I agree that there are hundreds of pilots from Aloha, ATA, Skybus, etc. still without work, many have found new careers. Also, the longer they go without flying, the harder it will be for them to find a job as a pilot..that is, unless they are keeping up with their flight currency on their own. While there are still over 7,200 pilots on furlough..who's to say that all of these pilots will return when their air carrier recalls them? Many of these pilots have found more stable jobs in more lucrative industries.

Also, as you mentioned, pilots are going to begin retiring again soon in large numbers. The age 65 rule was passed in December 2007. Many of the senior pilots flying today are baby boomers who flew in the vietnam era. By the time these pilots begin turning 65, the economy should be on an upswing (hopefully) and hopefully more passengers flying. When you consider the decrease in new pilot trainees, the large number of impending retirees beginning Dec 2012, and pilots finding better careers, yes, there will once again be a huge pilot shortage


User currently offlineDiamondFlyer From United States of America, joined Oct 2008, 1400 posts, RR: 3
Reply 4, posted (4 years 1 week 23 hours ago) and read 15879 times:

Quoting Fly2HMO (Reply 1):
You're much better of at a community college with a 141 flight program.

I'll agree with your statement on ATP. Stay away, as it ends up costing a lot of money there, for what some people would consider questionable training at times. I'd even go further and say to stay away from all 141 training. 141 sounds great because of the lower flight time requirements, but often times if you look at the courses, they are nearly impossible to complete in the minimum times. Couple that with what are often higher rental rates at a 141 flight school, and often you can go part 61 training cheaper. Find a good instructor (there are plenty out there) and fly at your local airport.

-DiamondFlyer



Rock Chalk Jayhawk
User currently offlinem11stephen From United States of America, joined Aug 2008, 1247 posts, RR: 1
Reply 5, posted (4 years 1 week 23 hours ago) and read 15858 times:

Quoting Fly2HMO (Reply 1):
Bad choice. They're little more than a shiny-jet-syndrome-infused pilot assembly line and a rip off. And yes this told to me by former students at ATP.

You're much better of at a community college with a 141 flight program.

Yeah, I started seeing a lot of that when I read into reviews of the school. I don't think I'll be planning on going there anymore.   Can anyone recommend a good flight school or program in the MKE area? Thankyou!

Quoting dbo861 (Reply 3):

How many pilots will there be retiring in the next couple years? Also, there probably are a good amount of pilots that won't work till the day they are forced to quit. I'm guessing that the majority of the 7200 furloughed will want their jobs back. They spent good money on their flight training.



My opinions, statements, etc. are my own and do not have any association with those of any employer.
User currently offlineFly2HMO From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 6, posted (4 years 1 week 23 hours ago) and read 15827 times:

Quoting DiamondFlyer (Reply 4):
I'd even go further and say to stay away from all 141 training.

I edited my original post to say "respectable" part 141  

Just like there's shady part 61 ops, there's shady part 141 ops.

Quoting m11stephen (Reply 5):
Can anyone recommend a good flight school or program in the MKE area?

As a side note, another thing to keep in mind in aviation: be willing to relocate to get a proper education, or a proper job.

[Edited 2010-04-13 15:57:46]

User currently offlinemhockey31091 From United States of America, joined Apr 2010, 81 posts, RR: 0
Reply 7, posted (4 years 1 week 23 hours ago) and read 15756 times:
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I'm currently a student at Embry-Riddle and can tell you that Embry-Riddle is making it known that they think the pilot shortage is on the way. I'm skeptical as others have said "they have been hearing about that shortage and waiting for it for a number of years and still nothing has happened in regards to that." There are still plenty of pilots that are furloughed and are in a better position to get their jobs back rather than a new person.

I can agree along the lines of other posters about ATP that they are not the best training facility around. I know down here at Daytona Beach they don't have the best reputation. I also have heard from some friends that work in the airlines that the students that come out of there lack experience and have a snobby mentality about their training.


User currently offlinedbo861 From United States of America, joined May 2004, 861 posts, RR: 1
Reply 8, posted (4 years 1 week 23 hours ago) and read 15708 times:

Quoting m11stephen (Reply 5):
How many pilots will there be retiring in the next couple years? Also, there probably are a good amount of pilots that won't work till the day they are forced to quit. I'm guessing that the majority of the 7200 furloughed will want their jobs back. They spent good money on their flight training.

I don't have specific numbers. And don't get me wrong, I agree that many of the furloughed pilots will eventually return when/if recalled.

Remember, the airline industry is VERY cyclical. We are in a low part of the cycle. As the economy improves and families begin going on vacations again, and business travelers return to their business trips, airlines will need to expand to match demand. As they expand, they'll need more pilots. Add that to the impending retirements of pilots beginning to turn 65, I see a future pilot shortage.

As the industry is cyclical, the pilot shortage won't be forever. The industry will catch up, there will be another downturn, and there will be another surplus of pilots.


User currently offlinenorcal From United States of America, joined Mar 2005, 2459 posts, RR: 5
Reply 9, posted (4 years 1 week 22 hours ago) and read 15666 times:

Quoting Fly2HMO (Reply 1):
They've been saying that for the past 10 years.

  

There is NO shortage of pilots and there hasn't been for some time. There is simply a shortage of pilots willing to work for the sh*t wages the regionals are offering right now. That is why they were hiring 220 hour wonder kids with 3 months of training and a wet AMEL commercial certificate a few years ago. They had to lower their standards that far in order to fill the ranks.

There is simply no more incentive for people to be pilots anymore since you really can't justify $$$$ to get the training anymore. Pay will have to come up some in order to fix this "shortage" and get the qualified military, corporate, 135, expats, etc. back into the industry. The market has already spoken since no one is wiling to spend the $2-5 extra on tickets to fix the problem.

The likely solution will be single pilot cockpits when things get really desperate. It'll fly through congress faster than the Patriot Act because the airline lobby will be screaming for it.


User currently offline413X3 From United States of America, joined Jul 2008, 1983 posts, RR: 0
Reply 10, posted (4 years 1 week 22 hours ago) and read 15666 times:

There will never be a shortage as long as there are willing people who gladly fork out 100k for "expenses" at these so-called glamorous aviation universities, and worst of all they gladly fork out more money to sit on the right seat and pay an airline to fly for them! Unbelievable.

User currently offlineplanemaker From Tuvalu, joined Aug 2003, 5925 posts, RR: 34
Reply 11, posted (4 years 1 week 22 hours ago) and read 15650 times:

A good part of the past hiring boom that some have referred to was due to the "explosion" of small RJs... that ain't never, ever gonna happen again!

The industry is in transition and there will be quite a bit more consolidation. With increased consolidation will come decreased jet flying (and fewer pilots). The ~2% annual air travel growth rate (FAA's number) will easily be accomodated by larger jets and fewer flights.

In short, there will not be a pilot shortage.



Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
User currently offlinem11stephen From United States of America, joined Aug 2008, 1247 posts, RR: 1
Reply 12, posted (4 years 1 week 22 hours ago) and read 15631 times:

Quoting Fly2HMO (Reply 6):
As a side note, another thing to keep in mind in aviation: be willing to relocate to get a proper education, or a proper job.

I have no problem relocating but right now I'm a student at UWM (University Wisconsin Milwaukee) so ideally I'd like a flight school thats close. After graduating I'd have no problem whatsoever moving to get a good education or job.

Quoting mhockey31091 (Reply 7):

Good luck at ERAU! I personally have heard nothing but bad things about the pilot program there.   I was so enticed to go there when I received the glossy brochures in the mail but then I heard what former students and those in the aviation industry thought of it. I'll be steering clear of there.  
Quoting dbo861 (Reply 8):

Thank you for your help.   I know the aviation industry can't stay in the dump forever. (Well hopefully not  )



My opinions, statements, etc. are my own and do not have any association with those of any employer.
User currently offlineplanemaker From Tuvalu, joined Aug 2003, 5925 posts, RR: 34
Reply 13, posted (4 years 1 week 22 hours ago) and read 15581 times:

Quoting norcal (Reply 9):
The likely solution will be single pilot cockpits when things get really desperate. It'll fly through congress faster than the Patriot Act because the airline lobby will be screaming for it.

It isn't as far away as some may imagine. By ~2020 RJs could go SP. And if A & B delay their all-new NB until ~2025 I would expect for them to also be SP (or offer an SP options for airlines).



Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
User currently offlineFly2HMO From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 14, posted (4 years 1 week 22 hours ago) and read 15568 times:

Quoting 413X3 (Reply 10):
There will never be a shortage as long as there are willing people who gladly fork out 100k for "expenses" at these so-called glamorous aviation universities

Shiny jet syndrome is to blame. Not the schools.

Quoting m11stephen (Reply 12):
I was so enticed to go there when I received the glossy brochures in the mail but then I heard what former students and those in the aviation industry thought of it. I'll be steering clear of there

Lemme, guess, the students were drop outs? That says it all if so.

I don't regret going to ERAU one bit, ridiculous student debt or not. When I say to people in the business that I'm a riddle grad I've been told nothing good regards and people are always genuinely interested. Sure, it's not a perfect school, but that can be said of every school out there.

I know many ERAU drop outs and other people that just love to bash the school for one dumb reason or another. And it's always because they feel like they got burned by the school when in reality it was their own damned fault for their epic failure at that school.


User currently offlinemhockey31091 From United States of America, joined Apr 2010, 81 posts, RR: 0
Reply 15, posted (4 years 1 week 22 hours ago) and read 15554 times:
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Quoting m11stephen (Reply 12):
Quoting mhockey31091 (Reply 7):

Good luck at ERAU! I personally have heard nothing but bad things about the pilot program there. I was so enticed to go there when I received the glossy brochures in the mail but then I heard what former students and those in the aviation industry thought of it. I'll be steering clear of there.

The pilot program is really nothing special. The procedures are ridculous. You would be surprised how strict it is. I'm working on my instrument right now and today I had my final flight canceled because it was raining. You can't really fly in actual IMC here, they make you use Frasca Sims as opposed to actual flight hours, you must taxi with a ground speed of 3kts on their ramp and some other stuff. The only reason that I am really going here is the fact that the degree in the aviation community is semi-valuable. My minor is ATC so if nothing comes from flying right away I will work as ATC somewhere and fly on the side.

[Edited 2010-04-13 17:09:13]

User currently offlineenilria From Canada, joined Feb 2008, 6838 posts, RR: 14
Reply 16, posted (4 years 1 week 22 hours ago) and read 15529 times:

Quoting Fly2HMO (Reply 1):
They've been saying that for the past 10 years.

The bigger problem long term is that it seems to me that the private airplane business is dying out and the number of non-professional pilots is decreasing rapidly. That doesn't bode well.


User currently offlineFly2HMO From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 17, posted (4 years 1 week 22 hours ago) and read 15485 times:

Quoting mhockey31091 (Reply 15):
The procedures are ridculous. You would be surprised how strict it is.

And what makes you think the airlines are any less strict?  
Quoting enilria (Reply 16):

The bigger problem long term is that it seems to me that the private airplane business is dying out and the number of non-professional pilots is decreasing rapidly

But 90% of those pilots wont end up at an airline anyways. Almost all of them are your older retired people or mid-life crisis type of guys with lots of money to burn and that have fun poking around in their V-tail bonanza every other Sunday for the traditional $100 burger flight.

It's the remaining 10%, the younger guys fresh out of school, that will potentially end up in the airlines.

[Edited 2010-04-13 17:28:00]

[Edited 2010-04-13 17:28:14]

User currently offlinemhockey31091 From United States of America, joined Apr 2010, 81 posts, RR: 0
Reply 18, posted (4 years 1 week 22 hours ago) and read 15422 times:
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Quoting Fly2HMO (Reply 17):
Quoting mhockey31091 (Reply 15):
The procedures are ridiculous. You would be surprised how strict it is.

And what makes you think the airlines are any less strict?

I'm not arguing that the airlines are less strict at all. I know that they are far stricter than Riddle. But what I am referring to is the Standardization Manual. Now that's not to say there aren't extremely useful things in the Standardization Manual. But the ones I am talking about are the 12 step procedure for a regular takeoff that takes up a page or the 12 step process on clearing turns. Steep turns again 12 steps.


User currently offlinePGNCS From United States of America, joined Apr 2007, 2757 posts, RR: 45
Reply 19, posted (4 years 1 week 21 hours ago) and read 15355 times:

Quoting mhockey31091 (Reply 7):
I'm currently a student at Embry-Riddle and can tell you that Embry-Riddle is making it known that they think the pilot shortage is on the way.

Well of course they are. They want to sell you an exorbitantly overpriced education.

Quoting planemaker (Reply 13):
Quoting norcal (Reply 9):
The likely solution will be single pilot cockpits when things get really desperate. It'll fly through congress faster than the Patriot Act because the airline lobby will be screaming for it.

It isn't as far away as some may imagine. By ~2020 RJs could go SP. And if A & B delay their all-new NB until ~2025 I would expect for them to also be SP (or offer an SP options for airlines).

And who is going to insure them?

Quoting Fly2HMO (Reply 14):
I don't regret going to ERAU one bit, ridiculous student debt or not.

Then it was a good choice for you.

Quoting Fly2HMO (Reply 14):
When I say to people in the business that I'm a riddle grad I've been told nothing good regards and people are always genuinely interested.

One of my Master's is from Riddle. It's fine, but nothing special. ERAU has much less prestige than you might think in the majors. Again, it's fine, but there's plenty of other guys out there who are just as good.

Quoting Fly2HMO (Reply 14):
Sure, it's not a perfect school, but that can be said of every school out there.

Absolutely correct.

Quoting mhockey31091 (Reply 15):
My minor is ATC so if nothing comes from flying right away I will work as ATC somewhere and fly on the side.

Very good move, although I would have recommended something even farther afield from aviation.

Quoting mhockey31091 (Reply 15):
The pilot program is really nothing special. The procedures are ridculous. You would be surprised how strict it is. I'm working on my instrument right now and today I had my final flight canceled because it was raining. You can't really fly in actual IMC here, they make you use Frasca Sims as opposed to actual flight hours
Quoting Fly2HMO (Reply 17):
Quoting mhockey31091 (Reply 15):
The procedures are ridculous. You would be surprised how strict it is.

And what makes you think the airlines are any less strict?

Well the airlines fly in RAIN. If Riddle is so restrictive that they don't allow real-world flying, or do it so infrequently they don't have the confidence in their staff to cope with flying in real IMC, that certainly doesn't increase the prestige of a degree from ERAU.


User currently offlineAirNovaBAe146 From Canada, joined Jun 2008, 359 posts, RR: 0
Reply 20, posted (4 years 1 week 21 hours ago) and read 15345 times:

Quoting mhockey31091 (Reply 7):
I'm currently a student at Embry-Riddle and can tell you that Embry-Riddle is making it known that they think the pilot shortage is on the way. I'm skeptical as others have said "they have been hearing about that shortage and waiting for it for a number of years and still nothing has happened in regards to that." There are still plenty of pilots that are furloughed and are in a better position to get their jobs back rather than a new person.

I can agree along the lines of other posters about ATP that they are not the best training facility around. I know down here at Daytona Beach they don't have the best reputation. I also have heard from some friends that work in the airlines that the students that come out of there lack experience and have a snobby mentality about their training.

Funny. I'm a professional pilot, and many many folks in the industry I know would use that "lack of experience" and snobby mentality" to describe ERAU graduates.

Here's some free advice. Be humble, hard-working, eager to learn, open to picking up new things from the other guys you fly with as you begin your career. If you show up to your first job with an ERAU know-it-all chip-on-your-shoulder, there are many Captains who will eat you alive. Fortunately I've flown with numerous competent, sharp ERAU grads- but please, leave the swagger in DAB or Prescott when you get your first job.

Quoting enilria (Reply 16):
The pilot program is really nothing special. The procedures are ridculous. You would be surprised how strict it is. I'm working on my instrument right now and today I had my final flight canceled because it was raining. You can't really fly in actual IMC here, they make you use Frasca Sims as opposed to actual flight hours, you must taxi with a ground speed of 3kts on their ramp and some other stuff. The only reason that I am really going here is the fact that the degree in the aviation community is semi-valuable. My minor is ATC so if nothing comes from flying right away I will work as ATC somewhere and fly on the side.

Thanks for making my point for me! When I was an instrument student, I looked forward to rainy/overcast days. But ERAU won't let you fly in it. What are you going to do when you graduate and eventually accumulate enough hours to go work for a regional based in the northeast USA?

AN

PS - Your homework assignment for today is to research Type I & Type IV de-ice fluid.


User currently offlinePeterSpence From United States of America, joined May 2009, 45 posts, RR: 0
Reply 21, posted (4 years 1 week 21 hours ago) and read 15316 times:

I don't have any facts at all, but just by reading this and heaps of other message boards I'd say there's gonna be a shortage for one reason: so many negative people. Sure, there may be 7,000+ Pilots on furlough & countless others working at Starbucks for now, but those people saturating everyone's mind with negativity about the industry is exactly what will make people drop the idea of becoming a Pilot and, as a result, create a big demand over time. Also, it is quite expensive to complete all the training, especially in this bad economic climate so that alone prevents most from flying.

I've gotta say, I love hearing everybody say becoming a Pilot sucks and it's impossible and everybody should give up because it'll never work due to so many things working against it .... that is the best news ever! The more I hear it, the merrier the feeling. For me, it means those individuals out there weak enough to be scared out of actually becoming a Pilot due to what people say will give up & open up a spot for myself when it comes time for me to apply.

If one ever wanted to become a Pilot simply for money, that's just sad. Actually, anybody who chases a career solely for the money needs a serious reality check. Becoming a Pilot is not for anything other than the love of flying. A love for flying will keep one focused & determined to become a Pilot regardless of the potential furlough threat.

A 767 Captain (just about close to retiring and having been through all the ups and downs) I recently had a lenghty chat with after an JFK-LAX flight said it perfect ... I can almost remember his words verbatim: "If you have a love for flying, and I mean an absolute love, don't let anybody talk you out of chasing your dream like I did several years ago. Sure, I've missed a few events of my family life and I've been through the pay cuts and furlough worry and various other ups and downs; but, as I sit here close to retiring after a great career, I have not one regret and I love every moment I'm in this aircraft. I wouldn't change a thing about my decision to become a Pilot years ago."

So, if you love flying and truly love it as I do and that Captain did, who cares about if a shortage is gonna happen or if the market is supposed to end up so saturated that Pilots are as common as plastic surgery on 60 year California women ... go for it and work hard and we'll realize the dream. For those of you that are just money hungry and lookin to just be rich, please do give up on the career, I'd appreciate it. You'll never be happy solely chasing riches.

Whether you go to Embry Riddle or Cal State LA or the college down the block, it doesn't matter. Nothing can stop a determined individual from a goal. Let's spend less time insulting what school the other person goes to and spend more time sharing our love for aviation. The thrill of feeling those wheels lift off the ground on that first rotation .....

Fly safe.

[Edited 2010-04-13 18:12:41]


N94838
User currently offlinenorcal From United States of America, joined Mar 2005, 2459 posts, RR: 5
Reply 22, posted (4 years 1 week 21 hours ago) and read 15298 times:

Quoting planemaker (Reply 13):
It isn't as far away as some may imagine. By ~2020 RJs could go SP. And if A & B delay their all-new NB until ~2025 I would expect for them to also be SP (or offer an SP options for airlines

Your way too optimistic, by 2025 we'll all be replaced by computers. I'm just glad I don't make my living flying. Flying is more of "fun money" for me, I make my living doing something else. I can and will leave if it gets much worse.


User currently offlineFly2HMO From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 23, posted (4 years 1 week 21 hours ago) and read 15278 times:

Quoting mhockey31091 (Reply 18):
But the ones I am talking about are the 12 step procedure for a regular takeoff that takes up a page or the 12 step process on clearing turns. Steep turns again 12 steps.

Which is still less steps than what I recall doing during my 737 training during my CO internship just for a visual approach.   

Quoting PGNCS (Reply 19):
If Riddle is so restrictive that they don't allow real-world flying, or do it so infrequently they don't have the confidence in their staff to cope with flying in real IMC, that certainly doesn't increase the prestige of a degree from ERAU.
Quoting AirNovaBAe146 (Reply 20):
But ERAU won't let you fly in it.

A major misconception. Of course Riddle lets you fly in the rain and bad weather, but within reason. I flew in rain a lot and had a few IMC flights (not as many as I wanted, but I blame that on PRC weather). And Riddle can't possibly have the same WX limits as an airline has with a fleet of non-FIKI approved light GA planes. Anything over 30kts wind and red storm cells within 5nm of the airport will put flight operations on hold, and usually its the last thing a flight supervisor on duty wants to do. Sure it can be frustrating to get your flight weathered (happened to me often enough) but it sucks more to get your guts smeared in the form of a long bright red streak along the runway due to a microburst.

And if the next door part 61 pilot school owned by Joe Pilot thinks its smart to do flight instruction with winds 30 gusting 45 in the middle of a storm with MVFR conditions in a 40 year VFR only- C150 (and I've seen schools do this) then good for them. But I won't be crying at their funeral.

Quoting PeterSpence (Reply 21):
If you have a love for flying, and I mean an absolute love, don't let anybody talk you out of chasing your dream like I did several years ago. Sure, I've missed a few events of my family life and I've been through the pay cuts and furlough worry and various other ups and downs; but, as I sit here close to retiring after a great career, I have not one regret and I love every moment I'm in this aircraft. I wouldn't change a thing about my decision to become a Pilot years ago.

And this is why I have not fully given up on aviation. I can't picture myself doing anything else in my life.

But I won't whore myself out to the lowest bidder either...  snooty 

[Edited 2010-04-13 18:25:50]

User currently offlineaviateur From United States of America, joined Apr 2004, 1350 posts, RR: 12
Reply 24, posted (4 years 1 week 21 hours ago) and read 15265 times:

There might be a pilot shortage at the regional level, at some point, and for good reason.

The number of people out there willing to fork over $100,000 or more in exchange for a job that pays maybe $20,000 a year is dwindling.

This is especially true now that the pipeline from the regionals to the majors has all but dried up, and is likely to stay very stagnant for a long time. A job with a regional is likely a CAREER with a regional, and what kind of career is that, really, when you look at it over the long term?


PS



Patrick Smith is an airline pilot, air travel columnist and author
25 413X3 : In what community? Most will see ERAU and not like or hire you simply because of that
26 777STL : Not as much as you'd like to think. It's not as if one day 5,000 pilots will up and leave the industry. Retirees leaving after hitting the 65 mark wi
27 mhockey31091 : The 737's are a little bit different than the 172's though, but I do understand where your coming from!
28 lightsaber : Said early and well. Be carefull. There are a number of military pilots who chose to stay in the service for 20 years due to this economy. They work
29 Post contains images JBirdAV8r : "Pilot shortage" is marketing BS. Been there, done that, paid dearly. +1 on ATP, and add Delta Connection Academy, Gulfstream (the horror...the horror
30 C767P : There are some 141 schools who tell you what the minimums are, but also give you the average times that students complete training. Find a good 141 s
31 N6238P : I don't get this attitude that there is no hope for us young guys to fly for the airlines. In my experience it seems that aviation is a giant chess ma
32 BMI727 : Generally, flying jobs today, especially entry level ones, suck. Whether each individual person is willing to pay that price and deal with it so they
33 brilondon : I have a friend who flew with me in the Canadian Forces and he has given me this bit of advice about being a pilot "make sure you have a day job so yo
34 Post contains images planemaker : The same insurers as always. OK... you caught me! When I give earlier dates on previous threads people think that I am nuts... so I am playing it saf
35 cobra27 : Has there ever been a shortage of commercial pilots?
36 RJ111 : I don't think there will ever be a pilot shortage. Too few jobs and too many wannabees willing to sell a kidney to get a job. Of course they are sayin
37 CO38 : Well, thats only if FAA/CAAs would certify a 12500lbs++ plane as a Single Pilot airplane. A Beech 200 is certified for SP ops, but a Beech 350 (weigh
38 CharlieNoble : Peter, I agree 100%. If that is how you feel my advice is to not get married, if you aren't already, until you (and she) are really established. The
39 saab2000 : What people forget about the 7200 furloughed pilots is that many of those are, A) not coming back. B) hired at another carrier like JetBlue or AirTran
40 flymia : 7 years ago when I wanted to be a commercial pilot all I heard was lots of pilots will retire with the age 60 rule there will be a shortage now its t
41 26point2 : Guys....Really? Like everything else these days the biz av. industry is in a slump but OEMs still taking orders and a rebound is forecast. All the ne
42 planespotting : It's not that bad of a career ... a Captain at Eagle with 5 years in can make almost $65,000/year, and that's just with the monthly reserve. Even at
43 vapar8 : Well they were reporting TCU over head with heavy rain. Doesn't really sound good for a PA 44.
44 Post contains images fxramper : Ah, the age old discussion of the aviation pilot gig being labeled as cyclical. See below. The airline pilot magical number is very misleading. A huge
45 SSTsomeday : My guess is that there will not be a shortage of candidates, but due to the prospects of a lucrative and reliable career being quite diminished from
46 flymia : That is true but you will end up making $100,000+ at most major airlines like FL, WN and B6 and AA DL etc.. WN pilots make the best money some make o
47 doug_Or : The problem with that is there's no such thing.
48 Post contains images JBirdAV8r : Hm...I never said that. Darn A.net quote system
49 BMI727 : You can make a nice career doing that, and a lot of guys do. But I get the feeling that that isn't the life and career a lot of students anticipate o
50 flyboeingjets : Don't get into this career field, period. If you like to fly, do something else professionally, get a degree in something else you enjoy, and fly on t
51 planespotting : That's true, haha. I guess I should have said "A new Eagle captain who's been a first officer for the last 10 years"
52 saab2000 : I didn't know Air Wisconsin was a 'lesser' regional. The pilot contract at Air Wisconsin is one of the best out there and except for the past 2 years
53 planemaker : There is no hope for the vast majority of you young guys... the odds are much better in Vegas. Which they could. Obviously not with the current aircr
54 tams747 : This is because there are so many people that come here thinking that its going to be easy to be a professional pilot. They reality is it takes a lot
55 alaska737 : So I'm imagining all my friends who work for airlines....? Honestly though, think about your statement....How would the school be in business? And wh
56 silentbob : In one day, no. But you will see thousands leaving per year in the not too distant future. I think there will be "shortages" at the regionals that fa
57 mhockey31091 : I'm not lazy by any means. I am acing all classes here at Riddle and have been for the last 2 semesters. I just don't see the relevance and honestly
58 flymia : Exactly! If timing is good and your lucky and it helps a lot if you know some captains at some of the large airlines the career can be great. I am su
59 planemaker : How many students are there trying to get their licences every year? That is looking at things historically. There is going to be ongoing consolidati
60 413X3 : Honestly this is how most pilots fly. The "lucky" ones who show up and start flying big iron are few and far between. Almost everyone put in their du
61 Post contains images Fly2HMO : Amen! I smell feces. Or it must be a DAB thing because at PRC NONE of the instructors I knew (and I knew them damn well as a dispatcher and CFII stud
62 spudsmac : Well, that's a very naive and twisted way of looking at it. I'm not saying ERAU produces better pilots, but I will say that the pilots are very motiv
63 tams747 : I got my private before I came here too, and I defiantly agree that the learning was very different and I think it helped me become a better pilot be
64 norcal : There are thousands of commercial pilot certificates issued every year. There will never be a shortage as long as flight schools can dupe idiots into
65 tams747 : I absolutely agree with you. I know this college is pretty easy and all but college is not supposed to be easy, thats what makes getting a degree wor
66 Fly2HMO : My 5 year experience at Riddle was anything BUT easy, even having never failed a check ride. If anything I would describe Riddle as demanding, very d
67 Post contains images m11stephen : I just want to thank all of you very much for your help! I'm definitely a realist in the sense that I know I won't magically end up in the left seat o
68 planespotting : I meant "lesser" in terms of size. Regionals like ASA, Eagle, Skywest, Mesa and Republic are considered major carriers, while Air Whiskey has a relat
69 jfklganyc : "In what community? Most will see ERAU and not like or hire you simply because of that" Really? That's the dumbest thing I have heard in a long time.
70 tams747 : The way I see it your certs will never show the difference between a shady 61 school and ERAU but your logbook will and I believe that makes a differ
71 413X3 : only to fellow graduates who have attitude and ego problems
72 spudsmac : keep drinking that kool-aid buddy Before you jump on me, I go to erau too, but all I ask is that you at least stay humble about it. Don't get a huge
73 tams747 : Again this an assumption made by you because you met a few people who you thought had ego problems and now your saying its the whole school. You can
74 413X3 : It isn't an assumption. Ask pilots out there what they think.
75 tams747 : Okay thats really valid... and you still have not told me what school is better. Where did you go?
76 Post contains images norcal : That is the exact type of entitled attitude that airline recruiters hate. "I went to the Harvard of the Skies." Please..... Riddle does have a good p
77 m11stephen : Absolutely, 95% of what I've heard pilots say about ERAU involves something like, "Don't waste your money. Get a non-aviation degree and fly at a loc
78 Post contains images Fly2HMO : Nice to see another unrelated thread turn into an ERAU-bashing thread Have fun trolling. I'm out.
79 Elevated : Virgin America has many pilots from four out of the seven defunct airlines that you listed as well as other airlines of course. At this time, there i
80 flybyguy : Negative? When last has there REALLY been a pilot shortage? There's always thousands of zit faced high schoolers that want to be airline pilots at an
81 silentbob : And consolidation creates opportunities for other airlines to expand. B6, FL, G4 or others will look to expand and grow into any void created because
82 planemaker : Which is increasingly what flying is... automated - and getting worse (or better depending on your viewpoint). Consolidation concentrates flying so t
83 777STL : I believe this is referred to as conceit(on your part). I'm literally laughing my *** off. Thanks I needed that. I guess all those people accusing th
84 m11stephen : Haha, I found the Harvard of the skies statement hilarious as well. I didn't mean to bring ERAU up in this thread but I find it hilarious that there
85 Post contains images alaska737 : How have ERAU students/grads been any more cocky/egotistical than any other person on this site? In fact...Since we're on the topic...Lets take a gan
86 alaska737 : Don't do something that you don't enjoy just for money. I know a lot of people with big bank rolls who are miserable and a lot of people who are lite
87 Post contains images m11stephen : Thank you for the advice. Being rich is not important to me but I still need to be able to afford food, housing, and pay my bills. I can't do that if
88 Post contains links alaska737 : It's all personal choice, I didn't want to go to a state school. I didn't want to be in class with hundreds of other students. I don't want to waste
89 silentbob : I know a few that are actually really nice guys. The rest I would be happy never seeing again. Reducing flying in most cities will allow LCC and othe
90 777STL : Well that's great. But the only posters I see *in this thread* being obnoxiously pompous, arrogant and egotistical seem to be ERAU alumni/current stu
91 m11stephen : I don't mean to be rude but who cares if you have an Aeronautical Science degree? I can't find a single airline that requires it. All they care is th
92 planemaker : Only if it is profitable. It does now... and that is why we have seen LCCs reduce frequencies, drop cities, etc. where they were losing money. That i
93 Post contains images Mir : Yeah, but it does have some truth to it now. Because of the change from 60 to 65 (which couldn't have come at a worse time), there has been virtually
94 tams747 : How is this comment arrogant? If I say that BMW is a respected auto maker does that make me arrogant? This on the other hand seems very arrogant cons
95 Post contains images jfklganyc : "I have yet to read one story about one real pilot who said something like, "If it weren't for ERAU, I wouldn't be where I am today." ERAU may be a go
96 alaska737 : Well in one thread you get very annoyed when people blackball something and it spreads through airliners. But in this thread you seem to support it.
97 bond007 : Then why does it matter that he's doing something he enjoys? If I am interviewing 3 guys for an aviation related job with similar resumes that all so
98 Post contains images m11stephen : I'm really glad that you are doing well in the aviation industry. May I ask how ERAU was worth the extra money over other ways to become a pilot?
99 saab2000 : FWIW, I am a captain at a US 121 carrier and the ERAU pilots I fly with are very good. They 'get it'. They don't ask why we can't climb to FL370 when
100 DualQual : Without reading any of the replies I will tell you this: If you are interested in flying as a career, start flying on the side. Go to a regular colleg
101 N6238P : If I may, will someone at least agree with me on this statement? Although the odds are not good for us low time pilots, eventually some of us will end
102 Post contains images m11stephen : Sir, do you currently work in the hiring department for airlines? The reason I ask is because I have yet to hear one story of an airline hiring someo
103 bond007 : Well my point, if you read the replies, was that he's no better off with a Psychology degree than with an aviation related one (in fact arguably wors
104 PeterSpence : I've jumped back on the site to read up on all the posts since my last one .... and all I have to say is: Can't we all just get along??? Geez people,
105 alaska737 : Maybe or maybe not, think long term... I practice power off 180's a lot. Am I ever going to have to use one in real life? Hopefully not, but if I do
106 jfklganyc : " I'm really glad that you are doing well in the aviation industry. May I ask how ERAU was worth the extra money over other ways to become a pilot?" S
107 Post contains images m11stephen : Thank you very much for taking the time to answer my question. I really appreciate it. For someone flush with money, ERAU is *probably* the best plac
108 Post contains images spudsmac : 2
109 PeterSpence : Well, I'd hope so ... that'd be a little nearsighted and shallow to say "just because you came from Riddle, you're hired!" without looking ones total
110 m11stephen : Thank you everyone for your input! It seems like everyone has different opinions on whether or not there's going to be a pilot shortage and what the b
111 N6238P : I talked earlier today to a rep from ALPA and I asked him a few questions about this shortage. One of the most intriguing facts I got was an example o
112 413X3 : Yes but that is assuming that regionals will not keep filling the void. Legacy carriers fleets are getting smaller and smaller. All the senior captai
113 Cass : Even if there isn't a huge surge of pilots retireing, the fact is those older pilots will retire eventually. My guess is it will be steady, letting F/
114 413X3 : And setting yourself up for possible failure, by getting a degree in something outside of aviation as a fallback. ERAU means you are totally invested
115 Cass : I didn't necessarily mean an Aeronautical science degree from Riddle. Putting all your eggs in the same basket seems foolish to me but you definately
116 Mir : If they want them. If I were a senior regional captain, I'm not sure I'd want to go all the way back to the bottom of the barrel at a major, just out
117 777STL : Haha, well I suppose it depends on your perspective. Let me qualify that comment - most *unbiased* people here would find that comment to be pompous
118 spudsmac : I do agree to a certain point about the degree being useless. While it might be useless as far as content goes outside of the industry, it's still a
119 alaska737 : haha congrats...I would rather do just about anything than be a CPA. I took an accounting class and it was pure torture. I would much rather be a poo
120 tams747 : Just because I have a aviation science degree has nothing to do with what I am (or anyone else) qualified to do. I've been building race car engines
121 N6238P : I'm less than 4 weeks from getting my B.S. in Aviation Management, I already got myself an internship with an Airline. I want to fly but I'd also like
122 Cass : I don't know the exact number or percentage so don't quote me on this but I have heard that only like 10% of people actually do what they got their d
123 N6238P : I don't think my degree is going to make me fly better than the next guy but I definitely know it helps me generally better understand whats going on
124 DashTrash : If there is a pilot shortage, it will be because those of us with the experience are tired of the horseshit. I'm one of the furloughed guys now, and I
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