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LH To Leave Caracas At The End Of 10/2010  
User currently offlineAvianca From Venezuela, joined Jan 2005, 5925 posts, RR: 40
Posted (4 years 5 months 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 14777 times:

as per last informatoin that I heard from some LH sources, LH will leave CCS in order to star the nex BOG flight starting in ther winter season 2010.

Not the best news but a logical step for LH.

regards
Avianca

[Edited 2010-04-13 18:17:13]


Colombia es el Mundo Y el Mundo es Colombia
63 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlinekiwiandrew From New Zealand, joined Jun 2005, 8565 posts, RR: 13
Reply 1, posted (4 years 5 months 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 14775 times:
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Quoting Avianca (Thread starter):
a logical step for LH.

Especially if AV/TA choose *A and BOG becomes a *A hub , in which case an LH service to BOG opens up many one stop connections from FRA for LH pax .



Moderation in all things ... including moderation ;-)
User currently offlineMaverickM11 From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 17489 posts, RR: 45
Reply 2, posted (4 years 5 months 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 14778 times:

I was just thinking that CCS would be wound down as BOG was started. The collapse of Venezuela is imminent, and the devaluation probably made the route instantly unprofitable, probably similar to DL.


E pur si muove -Galileo
User currently offlineAvianca From Venezuela, joined Jan 2005, 5925 posts, RR: 40
Reply 3, posted (4 years 5 months 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 14741 times:

Quoting kiwiandrew (Reply 1):
Especially if AV/TA choose *A and BOG becomes a *A hub , in which case an LH service to BOG opens up many one stop connections from FRA for LH pax .

yep, and as per my understanding LH is also negotiating special conditions at LIM in order to reestablish the flights to LIM (logical step regarding the TA code-shares they have in place)



Colombia es el Mundo Y el Mundo es Colombia
User currently offlineFWAERJ From United States of America, joined Jun 2006, 3749 posts, RR: 2
Reply 4, posted (4 years 5 months 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 14687 times:

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 2):

I was just thinking that CCS would be wound down as BOG was started. The collapse of Venezuela is imminent, and the devaluation probably made the route instantly unprofitable, probably similar to DL.

I agree that Venezuela's economic problems had more to do with this than AV.

With Chavez nationalizing or threatening to nationalize everything, and the heavy nationalism in the government there, I feel that Venezuela may ban all foreign carriers except from "friendly" countries from entering the country in the near future, but continue to fly their own planes to other countries. And I wouldn't be surprised if at least one Venezuelan carrier orders Russian planes shortly to circumvent possible US and EU sanctions.



"Did he really need the triple bypass? Or was it the miles?"
User currently offlineAvianca From Venezuela, joined Jan 2005, 5925 posts, RR: 40
Reply 5, posted (4 years 5 months 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 14670 times:

Quoting FWAERJ (Reply 4):
And I wouldn't be surprised if at least one Venezuelan carrier orders Russian planes shortly to circumvent possible US and EU sanctions.

didnt C0 already ordered Il96?

Quoting FWAERJ (Reply 4):
I agree that Venezuela's economic problems had more to do with this than AV.

well I think the biggest problem was 1. the payment delays due the Cadivi in place (the airlines needs around 6 to 9 month to get the money out of the country), and also a big problem was that Venezuela has nearly 0 Export cargo and the formaly feed by Colombia was nearly impossible due to silly customs regulations and limited capacity since the last problems between Colombia and Venezuela (due to heavy restriction on colombia cargo carriers for traffic rights). For a similar long flight out off Bogota LH will genrate a minium of 25.000 USD or more of Cargo revenue x flight!



Colombia es el Mundo Y el Mundo es Colombia
User currently offlinemah4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 32777 posts, RR: 72
Reply 6, posted (4 years 5 months 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 14641 times:

If things don't turn around quickly, I wouldn't be surprised if Caracas is down to just the dense VFR markets in terms of foreign carriers - AA, CO, IB, TP and AZ.


a.
User currently offlineAvianca From Venezuela, joined Jan 2005, 5925 posts, RR: 40
Reply 7, posted (4 years 5 months 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 14627 times:

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 6):
I wouldn't be surprised if Caracas is down to just the dense VFR markets in terms of foreign carriers - AA, CO, IB, TP and AZ.

I wouldnt even surprised if carriers like TP and AZ leave the country, even there are huge Italian and Portuguese communitys in the country, the devaluation of the Bolivar + the big delays to bring out the money of the country just hits the airline to strong



Colombia es el Mundo Y el Mundo es Colombia
User currently offline797 From Venezuela, joined Aug 2005, 1894 posts, RR: 27
Reply 8, posted (4 years 5 months 6 days 8 hours ago) and read 14571 times:

Worst news ever. Seriously.

Does the GDS show this change after the mentioned date?



Flying isn't dangerous. Crashing is what's dangerous!
User currently offlinekiwiandrew From New Zealand, joined Jun 2005, 8565 posts, RR: 13
Reply 9, posted (4 years 5 months 6 days 8 hours ago) and read 14544 times:
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Quoting 797 (Reply 8):
Does the GDS show this change after the mentioned date?

I doubt whether it will yet , remember at this stage it is more in the nature of a leak . Often there is a timelag in updating the GDS even after official announcements are made . I suspect that the announcement may still be a few weeks off because in the thread regarding LH re-starting BOG there was mention that the bilateral would need to be amended to permit a daily service and that was likely to happen sometime in May . I would imagine that LH would like to offset the bad news with some good news and announce as a change of destination rather than a route cancellation but if that is the case they wont announce terminating CCS until they are ready to announce BOG in its place . ( On the other hand the sooner they zero out the flights the better as things can get ugly when you have to reaccommodate already ticketed pax , and October is only six months away .)



Moderation in all things ... including moderation ;-)
User currently offlineAvianca From Venezuela, joined Jan 2005, 5925 posts, RR: 40
Reply 10, posted (4 years 5 months 6 days 8 hours ago) and read 14523 times:

Quoting 797 (Reply 8):
Does the GDS show this change after the mentioned date?

still shown in the GDS, but also the BOG flights are still not loaded.



Colombia es el Mundo Y el Mundo es Colombia
User currently offlineabrelosojos From Venezuela, joined May 2005, 5090 posts, RR: 55
Reply 11, posted (4 years 5 months 6 days 8 hours ago) and read 14399 times:

On a personal note, what am I going to do  ? TP double-connect?

Saludos,
A.

PS: I am still going to be surprised though ... the flight does well for LH.

[Edited 2010-04-13 19:13:48]


Live, and let live.
User currently offline797 From Venezuela, joined Aug 2005, 1894 posts, RR: 27
Reply 12, posted (4 years 5 months 6 days 8 hours ago) and read 14364 times:

Quoting abrelosojos (Reply 11):
On a personal note, what am I going to do ? TP double-connect?

Alex, I was thinking about you a minute ago, as a matter of fact. This is going to be a disaster...

I am sure if this materializes they will get a deal with another airline to bring the CCS LH passengers to BOG. But still, what a pain in the back side.

I am getting depressed with all this deal.



Flying isn't dangerous. Crashing is what's dangerous!
User currently offlineabrelosojos From Venezuela, joined May 2005, 5090 posts, RR: 55
Reply 13, posted (4 years 5 months 6 days 8 hours ago) and read 14327 times:

Quoting 797 (Reply 12):

Alex, I was thinking about you a minute ago, as a matter of fact. This is going to be a disaster...

= Thanks. Ya ... I took CCS-FRA in one direction over 30 times last year ... and, the sad part is that the flight is actually very profitable for the airline.

Quoting 797 (Reply 12):
I am sure if this materializes they will get a deal with another airline to bring the CCS LH passengers to BOG. But still, what a pain in the back side.

= I am NOT transiting through BOG. BOG might be ok for O&D, but transit is a mess and the airport has NO concept of interline transfers. Problem with my client list is that FRA provides more one-stop connection than anyone else ... and, if I have to double-connect, I might as well use TP to LIS.

I might be sounding dramatic, but this change (though, I am still not convinced) will have a material impact on my life  .

Saludos,
A.



Live, and let live.
User currently offlineAvianca From Venezuela, joined Jan 2005, 5925 posts, RR: 40
Reply 14, posted (4 years 5 months 6 days 8 hours ago) and read 14304 times:

Quoting abrelosojos (Reply 11):
On a personal note, what am I going to do ? TP double-connect?

you can use AF  
Quoting abrelosojos (Reply 11):
PS: I am still going to be surprised though ... the flight does well for LH.

well the main problem is as before mentioned to bring out the money of the country in a decend time, what they hell you have good loadfactors but have to wait 9 months to get out the money or you have just to change it on the "mercado paralelo" which several airlines did in the past and lost a lot of money.

Another big problem is the very very low loadfactor for export cargo out of CCS and last but not lesat that on nearly every flights a lot of connections are missed, thank you to the guardia national...



Colombia es el Mundo Y el Mundo es Colombia
User currently offlineabrelosojos From Venezuela, joined May 2005, 5090 posts, RR: 55
Reply 15, posted (4 years 5 months 6 days 7 hours ago) and read 14274 times:

Quoting Avianca (Reply 14):
you can use AF

= Yes. And, I can also stop flying  .

However, AF will probably be the most to gain ...

Quoting Avianca (Reply 14):
well the main problem is as before mentioned to bring out the money of the country in a decend time, what they hell you have good loadfactors but have to wait 9 months to get out the money or you have just to change it on the "mercado paralelo" which several airlines did in the past and lost a lot of money.

= This is an issue ... but let's see how this plays out.

Quoting Avianca (Reply 14):

Another big problem is the very very low loadfactor for export cargo out of CCS and last but not lesat that on nearly every flights a lot of connections are missed, thank you to the guardia national...

= Export cargo never was an issue for these flights ... they were always going to be supplemental income. Guardia Nacional has a job to do ... and, no point in making a thread political ... but connections were not of strategic importance on this flight. Most connections were back-of-the-bus.

Saludos,
A.



Live, and let live.
User currently offlineAvianca From Venezuela, joined Jan 2005, 5925 posts, RR: 40
Reply 16, posted (4 years 5 months 6 days 7 hours ago) and read 14270 times:

Quoting abrelosojos (Reply 13):
= I am NOT transiting through BOG. BOG might be ok for O&D, but transit is a mess and the airport has NO concept of interline transfers

well no idea about interline transfers, but transfer on AV / AV is just great, even short connections of 30 minutes are possible without much trouble.

Quoting abrelosojos (Reply 13):
(though, I am still not convinced)

Well I would love that the flight will not go, as it was for several years my link from CCS to my homecountry, but the fact is that I heard it from different LH and industry sources.



Colombia es el Mundo Y el Mundo es Colombia
User currently offline797 From Venezuela, joined Aug 2005, 1894 posts, RR: 27
Reply 17, posted (4 years 5 months 6 days 7 hours ago) and read 14249 times:

Quoting Avianca (Reply 14):
you can use AF

Could we then see an increase in capacity by AF? This could be an interesting scenario.



Flying isn't dangerous. Crashing is what's dangerous!
User currently offlineAvianca From Venezuela, joined Jan 2005, 5925 posts, RR: 40
Reply 18, posted (4 years 5 months 6 days 7 hours ago) and read 14235 times:

Quoting abrelosojos (Reply 15):
= Export cargo never was an issue for these flights ... they were always going to be supplemental income. Guardia Nacional has a job to do ... and, no point in making a thread political ... but connections were not of strategic importance on this flight. Most connections were back-of-the-bus

well Venezuela has generally very low cargo loads on the export side, but LH filled the flight with flowers and fruits from BOG connecting on Vensecar, Aerolines Suramericanas, Aerosucre etc.. they filled 5 x weekly Ccs-Fra rotations with Bog originated cargo... since the last "drama" between Colombia and Venezuela there was no connection more possible = like 25.000 USD less income x flight....

and yes Guardia Nacional has a job to do, but not encumber all the time the operations and delay always unnecessary flights



Colombia es el Mundo Y el Mundo es Colombia
User currently offlineAvianca From Venezuela, joined Jan 2005, 5925 posts, RR: 40
Reply 19, posted (4 years 5 months 6 days 7 hours ago) and read 14213 times:

Quoting 797 (Reply 17):
Could we then see an increase in capacity by AF? This could be an interesting scenario.

I highly doubt it, what I can imagine is that the ticket prices will be for the next season even higher....



Colombia es el Mundo Y el Mundo es Colombia
User currently offlineSpeedbird741 From Portugal, joined Aug 2008, 654 posts, RR: 0
Reply 20, posted (4 years 5 months 6 days 7 hours ago) and read 14188 times:

Quoting abrelosojos (Reply 13):
I might as well use TP to LIS.



Please do! I would love to see another of your great trip reports on TP!


What a surprise to see LH leave CCS, but with BOG *A it makes sense. They might not have enough capacity to keep both CCS and BOG, regardless of how profitable the CCS flight may be.

Speedbird741



Boa noite Faro, Air Portugal 257 climbing flight level 340
User currently offlineMaverickM11 From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 17489 posts, RR: 45
Reply 21, posted (4 years 5 months 6 days 7 hours ago) and read 14141 times:

Quoting abrelosojos (Reply 13):
... and, the sad part is that the flight is actually very profitable for the airline.

Was. Airlines don't can profitable flights, all things being equal.

Quoting Speedbird741 (Reply 20):
They might not have enough capacity to keep both CCS and BOG

It's not a question of one or the other; both are independent markets. The Venezuelan economy is going down the tubes and so is capacity to Venezuela.



E pur si muove -Galileo
User currently offlineabrelosojos From Venezuela, joined May 2005, 5090 posts, RR: 55
Reply 22, posted (4 years 5 months 6 days 7 hours ago) and read 14144 times:

Quoting Avianca (Reply 16):
well no idea about interline transfers, but transfer on AV / AV is just great, even short connections of 30 minutes are possible without much trouble.

= ... yes, but your bags will never make it. And, the whole point of me going to BOG (to replace LH) would be an interline AV-LH.

Quoting 797 (Reply 17):
Could we then see an increase in capacity by AF? This could be an interesting scenario.

= Probably not ... a lot will depend on how the situation plays out. Again, I am not fully convinced as AF faces the same operational environment as LH does. Let's see.

I did a quick analysis on CCS-FRA flight for a 3 month period of 2009:

1. CCS to FRA and beyond: 61.55% (top markets: HKG/CAN/LHR/MAD/PEK)
2. CCS local : 17.64%
3. Bridge : 15.27%
4. Behind CCS : 5.5% (top markets: LIM - more than 50% > BOG, UIO, LPB, CTG)

* some rounding

When J/F traffic is involved, CCS local and beyond become more important. I am fascinated what LH's strategy is going to be for those pax.

Saludos,
A.



Live, and let live.
User currently offlineabrelosojos From Venezuela, joined May 2005, 5090 posts, RR: 55
Reply 23, posted (4 years 5 months 6 days 7 hours ago) and read 14124 times:

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 21):
Was. Airlines don't can profitable flights, all things being equal.

= Yes ... but in this instance its a question of airline seeing her profits than the flights being profitable themselves  .

Anyways, let's see. It can also be posturing.

Quoting Speedbird741 (Reply 20):


Please do! I would love to see another of your great trip reports on TP!

= LOL. Well, TP might not be great, but LIS is definitely one of my top 10 cities in the world  .

Saludos,
A.



Live, and let live.
User currently offlineAvianca From Venezuela, joined Jan 2005, 5925 posts, RR: 40
Reply 24, posted (4 years 5 months 6 days 7 hours ago) and read 14110 times:

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 21):
It's not a question of one or the other; both are independent markets. The Venezuelan economy is going down the tubes and so is capacity to Venezuela.

well LH actually combined very well the Peruvian, Colombian and even Bolivian market with the CCS flight (CCS has a good geographic location for these type of connections)

Quoting abrelosojos (Reply 22):
= ... yes, but your bags will never make it. And, the whole point of me going to BOG (to replace LH) would be an interline AV-LH.

well actually I had a 25 minuten connection on a CCS-BOG-LIM trip some month ago and my bags made it... AV seems to be very good organized for the short connections.



Colombia es el Mundo Y el Mundo es Colombia
25 OP3000 : One potential alternative (although I have no idea if they could get the rights to fly the routing) would be to tag FRA-CCS-LIM, and keep the CCS-FRA
26 LH506 : Would LH be able to fly BOG-FRA with their 343 or 346 non-stop at full payload or would they be restricted due to BOG altitude and runway length?
27 MaverickM11 : As abrelosojos said, the beyond CCS traffic was minimal: Como?
28 Luftfahrer : FRA-CCS-BOG-CCS-FRA (alternatively FRA-BOG-CCS-BOG-FRA) would seem like the best deal, wouldn't it? But would LH have the necessary rights for this op
29 SJOtoLIR : TA CCS-LIM bears the LH code for the meantime. The logical move seems to be focused in flying to any or possible Star Alliance base within the equati
30 797 : True that. An AZ flight to FCO got a 5 hour delay because all passengers (including a relative of mine) were ordered to disembark the plane and head
31 cayman : I believe there was a time that BA operated LHR-CCS-BOG-CCS-LHR with 777-200s?
32 Post contains images Summa767 : I'm sure you will learn to like AF Then there is IB, now with more room in J and a fully flat sea/bed, and an entirely new seat coming next year. So
33 Summa767 : If the decision is dependent on LH being able to do FRA-BOG daily, it is not until next month that authorities from Colombia and Germany will sit dow
34 Avianca : well actually on every flight I was there were a good bunch of connecting passengers, and most only on interline tickets! yes LH has really problems
35 pylon101 : I was thinking about it too. Eldorado Airport elevation and hard terrain will set limits for cargo. No matter what AC is used. If LH decision is poli
36 797 : That's correct. If I'm not mistaken, BA's last flight to Venezuela was in the early 2000's. We used to get a daily 777 flying LHR-CCS-BOG-CCS-LHR. I
37 SolarFlyer22 : I agree, the real problem is the economy of Venezuela. Its almost a 3rd world country at this point because you have extreme difficulty with the curr
38 Summa767 : Indeed there are restrictions for all aircraft, however, the MTOW ex BOG on the A340s allows for some cargo to be carried out of BOG on flights to Eu
39 Avianca : the 10 tons are with full pax load correct? actually I have already sean AV A330 flights out of BOG to MAD with 14tons of cargo...
40 Post contains images kaitak : I recall a thread, must be a few years ago now, where CCS was the No1 in load factors across the LH system. Or you could fly IB!! Joking apart, one h
41 LipeGIG : If such decision is confirmed i would say LH continue to see South America the same way as ever. They shall expand to LIM, BOG and GIG, but not reduci
42 Post contains links Summa767 : Is this the non-stop flight AV10? The one via CLO is handier for carrying more cargo as it is at a much lower altitude. Having said that AV's laod fa
43 talaier : How fast can things change in this world. Well I guess TP is going to get a good load of *A ff's into its flights to Caracas so they'll be happy. As
44 Summa767 : At the moment their ops into CCS are a bit all over the place. No daily service LIS-CCS, and then there are some flights with stops in Maderia, or Op
45 mah4546 : I wouldn't say that's "all over the place." The flights stop in Oporto and Funchal for a reason: there is heavy demand for it. In fact, most of the d
46 SJOtoLIR : TA LIM-CCS is contributing in order to load planes namely LH CCS-FRA. I would expect a similar situation at BOG when LH FRA-BOG will start in winter
47 Summa767 : I would. I don't doubt that there is demand. But it is obviously not as attractive to have additional stops for LH's current premium passengers. Perh
48 mah4546 : Yes, there is demand, especially to Funchal. That is why TAP makes the stop. It's not just for fun. TAP isn't a "business man's" airline and accepts
49 talaier : Actually, forgot to mention, IB is going back to the weekly flight operated out of TFN, again targeting one of the largest (if not the largest) VFR ma
50 Summa767 : TAP do have some non-stop flights between LIS and CCS. I just pondered if they could increase the number, without affecting their current Madeira and
51 Luftfahrer : Right, the portion would have to be flown in one day (returning to FRA on day 2). Almost not possible unless the arrival in South America is in the e
52 797 : Interesting. Will this flight operate directly between TFN and CCS, or will it be stopping in MAD? In the past IB cancelled this route for motherland
53 talaier : Indeed it will be direct, as I said probably taking advantage of one of the 340 rotations. It will be operated every Wednesday.
54 bogota : BA operated B777-200 between 1999 and 2005 when they shut down the route, with a couple of six month intervals on the 767-300 in 2001 and 2004.
55 Post contains links SQ773 : Hi guys, I already wrote about this long ago . It was last year. Sad its becoming true... Rumour : Lufthansa Back To BOG. CCS Axed. (by SQ773 Mar 11 2
56 ACES320 : well actually on every flight I was there were a good bunch of connecting passengers, Last flight actually was on the 24th February 2004. A 772 opera
57 Avianca : really strange, even the company I work for had around 25tons on the BOG-(CLO)-MAD flights and it is originated from LIM, and the strongest market fo
58 bogota : It was actually a year later in February 2005 that BA left Colombia and Venezuela.
59 SJOtoLIR : It's a good point. The possible LH FRA-LIM would face [IB LIM-MAD and LP LIM-MAD] on behalf of OneWorld and KL AMS-LIM on behalf of SkyTeam. Star All
60 talaier : I agree, the problem is LH seems to be taking things very cautiously with LatAm destinations. I suspect they're waiting to see how they figure their
61 FlySSC : AF reduced its capacity already from a Daily B744 to a mix of B744/A343 and is now planning a mix A343/ A332 to CDG for the summer 2010. For The next
62 IAD380 : If the consensus is that LH is withdrawing from CCS because of currency restrictions and the rapidly deteriorating Venezuelan economy, why wouldn't mo
63 talaier : TAP and Alitalia enjoy a huge VFR market that, whilst it won't make the route one of the most profitable in their network, it will still make it wort
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