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Airlines Going Under Because Of Volcano Disaster?  
User currently offlinevfw614 From Germany, joined Dec 2001, 3914 posts, RR: 5
Posted (4 years 1 week 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 20835 times:

In case that the volcano disaster will disrupt normal airline operations for more than 2 or 3 days, do you think that some European airlines will go under as a result? Some have been on the brink of collapse in the past months due to the economic crisis - do you think that a prolonged disruption of flight might push them over the edge? Remember the situation after 9/11, when quite a few airlines collapsed as the situation then was the last straw for them. Any thoughts about likely candidates?

13 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently offlineLJ From Netherlands, joined Nov 1999, 4367 posts, RR: 0
Reply 1, posted (4 years 1 week 1 day ago) and read 20605 times:

KLM estimated to loose EUR 5mio to EUR 10mio a day. Thus if the problems are solved quickly than it shouldn't have a large effect. However, if you are already on the verge of collapsing, then this may push you over the edge. However,

User currently offlineTommyBP251b From Germany, joined Apr 2006, 456 posts, RR: 0
Reply 2, posted (4 years 1 week 1 day ago) and read 20571 times:

I wanted to start the same topic.

I am worried about airlines like MA, SAS, SN, who were already before in a weak financial situation.

Where will that big mess end?


Regards

Tom



Tom from Cologne
User currently offlineEXTspotter From United Kingdom, joined May 2007, 992 posts, RR: 1
Reply 3, posted (4 years 1 week 23 hours ago) and read 20178 times:

But the effect is mainly on northern europe. I would say maybe some of the "weaker" UK airlines, maybe LS or WW (I don't know enough about their financials, however after years ofreading these forums, those are names that seem to keep popping up on weak financial performance). Alex


AF BE BY FR MV PD SZ U2 VZ DHC6, 8-3/4Q, 732/8, 763ER, A319, A380
User currently offlineCaaardiff From United Kingdom, joined Jul 2006, 186 posts, RR: 0
Reply 4, posted (4 years 1 week 22 hours ago) and read 19796 times:

I was under the impression LS were actually doing quite well lately.
WW on the other hand have been under performing lately, and dont seem to have any direction, chopping and changing routes constantly with no real plans for healthy growth.
I think if anything were to happen to any UK airline, it would be some of the very small carriers (Manx2/Air Southwest/Scotairways etc) however these tend to have good backing. But with BA's current financial situation, and being of a similar size to KL, surely a loss of 5-10 Mil Euros a day cant do them any good!

A question raised by some at CWL recently is, how much extra capacity will airlines add once the Volcano issue is over? Would it be logistically possible to add extra flights, and in such a short timescale, would they sell, or will people just get a refund and find alternative transport (for domestics) and scrap travel plans for further afield other than those absolutely neccessary.
Someone with the right setup may benefit quite well. For example WW currently do not fly their aircraft (at CWL at least) to its full potential as it would normally when reaching the summer season. The availability of aircraft could provide oppurtunity to provide a decent rescue program for its stranded passengers, and extra availability to those who cannot, or dont want to rebook with their original carriers.


User currently offlineAvianca From Venezuela, joined Jan 2005, 5900 posts, RR: 40
Reply 5, posted (4 years 1 week 22 hours ago) and read 19715 times:

Quoting TommyBP251b (Reply 2):
I am worried about airlines like MA, SAS, SN, who were already before in a weak financial situation.

Where will that big mess end?

well I can not imagine that specially SN will go under as they will have LH help.

LO maybe a good candidate.



Colombia es el Mundo Y el Mundo es Colombia
User currently offlineDano1977 From British Indian Ocean Territory, joined Jun 2008, 474 posts, RR: 0
Reply 6, posted (4 years 1 week 21 hours ago) and read 19586 times:

So what happens if a big European airline has to call it a day, because of the volcano ashcloud.


Would the EU allow a government to loan cash to save it because of extra-ordinary circumstances?



Children should only be allowed on aircraft if 1. Muzzled and heavily sedated 2. Go as freight
User currently offlineshuggie From United Kingdom, joined Apr 2007, 120 posts, RR: 0
Reply 7, posted (4 years 1 week 21 hours ago) and read 19574 times:

Quoting EXTspotter (Reply 3):
I would say maybe some of the "weaker" UK airlines, maybe LS or WW (I don't know enough about their financials

It's my understanding that WW is 100% owned by BD and obviusly they in turn are owned by LH so I wouldn't have thought that they'd collapse because of this. That's not to say they won't dissapear at some point...


User currently offlineeaa3 From United States of America, joined Sep 2007, 980 posts, RR: 0
Reply 8, posted (4 years 1 week 21 hours ago) and read 19510 times:

Quoting Dano1977 (Reply 6):


Would the EU allow a government to loan cash to save it because of extra-ordinary circumstances?

The EU cares about making sure that one country doesn't support it's countries to the detriment of other countries. So I bet they would be fine with it as long as there are guidelines that make sure the countries support their airlines equally somehow.


User currently offlineLHR380 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 9, posted (4 years 1 week 21 hours ago) and read 19458 times:

Jet2 are doing very well, and can more then cope with the current situation Im sure.

They have been very cautious with expansion and aircraft ordering.


User currently offlineBralo20 From Belgium, joined May 2008, 613 posts, RR: 0
Reply 10, posted (4 years 1 week 21 hours ago) and read 19274 times:

Quoting Avianca (Reply 5):
well I can not imagine that specially SN will go under as they will have LH help.

LO maybe a good candidate.

Not only that, the financial state of SN is rather good, the result may be negative but they have a significant amount of cash available.


User currently offlineWAC From United States of America, joined Nov 2008, 275 posts, RR: 0
Reply 11, posted (4 years 1 week 21 hours ago) and read 19246 times:
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I could see BE needing a cash boost from BA. Just have a look at most of the airports with aircraft through out the UK and BE aircraft seem to dominate being on the ground. From SOU to INV from ABZ-LGW. Also the fact most passengers can get to their destination by ground transport means that those that were supposed to fly will use the alternatives rather than postpone their travel and ask for a refund. I don't think they will go under but they will need a substantial cash injection from BA.

User currently offlineLondonCity From United Kingdom, joined Nov 2008, 1448 posts, RR: 0
Reply 12, posted (4 years 1 week 21 hours ago) and read 18674 times:

Passenger airlines are mentioned above. But what about cargo airlines ? A report in today's Daily Telegraph says that cargo carriers of three countries which export produce from Kenya to Europe have all been grounded.

Apparently in normal times Kenya would export GBP1.3 million worth of flowers each day to Europe:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...ya-as-volcano-grounds-flights.html


User currently offlineManuCH From Switzerland, joined Jun 2005, 3007 posts, RR: 48
Reply 13, posted (4 years 1 week 20 hours ago) and read 18155 times:
AIRLINERS.NET CREW
HEAD MODERATOR

Please continue discussion in the following thread:

Volcanic Ash: Flight Disruptions Across Europe #4 (by moderators Apr 17 2010 in Civil Aviation)

This one will now be locked.

Any additional posts that are made to this thread after this post will be removed for housekeeping purposes, as this may happen due to a short system lag.



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