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UA Begins Bahrain Today  
User currently offlinerwSEA From Netherlands, joined Jan 2005, 3076 posts, RR: 2
Posted (4 years 2 months 3 weeks 3 days 21 hours ago) and read 11530 times:

Today is the official start of UA's tag-on service from KWI to BAH. Any word on the advance bookings for this new service?

39 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineCXA330300 From South Africa, joined May 2004, 1560 posts, RR: 2
Reply 1, posted (4 years 2 months 3 weeks 3 days 19 hours ago) and read 11022 times:

Don't know about the advanced bookings, but it doesn't seem that they'd do that well outside of military traffic...O/D is quite small and GF is really lined up with the OW carriers...


The sky is the limit as long as you can stay there
User currently offlineLAXintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 24710 posts, RR: 46
Reply 2, posted (4 years 2 months 3 weeks 3 days 18 hours ago) and read 10821 times:

Its a tag flight like todays SYD-MEL, GRU-GIG or EZE-MVD of the past and LHR-BRU last winter.

So if it contributes 50-75 people to the primary KWI flight, it will be doing OK.



From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
User currently offlineJacobin777 From United States of America, joined Sep 2004, 14968 posts, RR: 60
Reply 3, posted (4 years 2 months 3 weeks 3 days 18 hours ago) and read 10639 times:

Its an interesting add on tag flight and I wish UA the best!

I think GF should start some key BAH-USofA routes once they get their B787's...I do believe they can have success on some key routes.



"Up the Irons!"
User currently offlinefxramper From United States of America, joined Dec 2005, 7172 posts, RR: 86
Reply 4, posted (4 years 2 months 3 weeks 3 days 18 hours ago) and read 10639 times:
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Quoting LAXintl (Reply 2):
50-75 people

Wishful thinking imho.   


User currently offlineB747forever From Sweden, joined May 2007, 17047 posts, RR: 10
Reply 5, posted (4 years 2 months 3 weeks 3 days 18 hours ago) and read 10616 times:

Does UA have 5th freedom on this tag on flight?


Work Hard, Fly Right
User currently offlineLAXintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 24710 posts, RR: 46
Reply 6, posted (4 years 2 months 3 weeks 3 days 18 hours ago) and read 10590 times:

Quoting fxramper (Reply 4):
Wishful thinking imho.

Quite plausible imo with US business and military flow.

Quoting B747forever (Reply 5):
Does UA have 5th freedom on this tag on flight?

Yes which could generate a few bodies on its own.



From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
User currently onlineklwright69 From Saudi Arabia, joined Jan 2000, 2008 posts, RR: 3
Reply 7, posted (4 years 2 months 3 weeks 3 days 16 hours ago) and read 10280 times:

I live in UAE, I am planning a trip to Bahrain and am doing some research... I know about the military presence, but I doubt that will contribute much to the bottomline. Will enough military people be going commercial with enough frequency, and they would likely ALL have to use UA, to even come close to making it work.

Business flow is will not be much. It's simply won't be. We're not talking Dubai or even Doha.

I think this was a blunder, they should tag to AUH, my new home!

BAH is tiny tiny tiny.

Gulf and European carriers have the upperhand in the area IMHO (DXB is huge so it's a different story).

Quote below shares my views exactly.

Quoting fxramper (Reply 4):
Quoting LAXintl (Reply 2):
50-75 people

Wishful thinking imho.


I think the fixed costs of a new station don't justify revenue potential. I think UA is struggling to Kuwait. I know CO does not like these kind of tags for the fixed costs to carry a few more souls onward.


User currently offlinerwSEA From Netherlands, joined Jan 2005, 3076 posts, RR: 2
Reply 8, posted (4 years 2 months 3 weeks 3 days 15 hours ago) and read 10093 times:

Quoting klwright69 (Reply 7):


I think the fixed costs of a new station don't justify revenue potential. I think UA is struggling to Kuwait. I know CO does not like these kind of tags for the fixed costs to carry a few more souls onward.

Thing is, KWI and BAH are both very small markets but they are very high-yield. UA probably can't fill a 777 on a daily basis to KWI because it is such a small market, but the traffic they do carry is high-yield. BAH will be the same - likely couldn't fill a plane, but can likely fill a few dozen seats at a very high fare. Fares from Europe to these places are also very high, usually in excess of $1,000 r/t. Take two high-yield, premium destinations that can each fill 777, and you have the potential for a full 777 with high fares serving two high-yield destinations. This isn't the same scenario, for example, as UA's previous IAD-EZE-MVD service where the EZE flights were full on their own and MVD wasn't adding incremental revenue. I think this one has a shot.


User currently offlineElmoTheHobo From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 1536 posts, RR: 1
Reply 9, posted (4 years 2 months 3 weeks 3 days 15 hours ago) and read 10035 times:

The US military installation in Bahrain (US Naval Base Manama) will provide a lot of traffic. I flew BA to Bahrain (right before the strike), and there were (at least) two dozen sailors en route to the base there. Add to that contractors and others who weren't clean shaven with a high and tight I'd guess there might have been thirty of them total.

That's not scientific by any means, but the naval base there is a big deal for the US military. The flight will contribute significantly to the Kuwait flight.


User currently offlineas739x From United States of America, joined Apr 2003, 6077 posts, RR: 24
Reply 10, posted (4 years 2 months 3 weeks 3 days 15 hours ago) and read 9910 times:

Well it's booked under 20 from KWI-BAH. Not a good start!


"Some pilots avoid storm cells and some play connect the dots!"
User currently offlineUnitedFA07 From United States of America, joined Apr 2009, 109 posts, RR: 0
Reply 11, posted (4 years 2 months 3 weeks 3 days 13 hours ago) and read 8880 times:

How do you know its the pax they're doing the tag for and possibly not cargo also? Just saying, not stating! How many of you know what cargo is taken there. Since most seem to know everything, or wait is it just speculation again.   

Just like the Sao Paulo and Rio tag, it's NOT for the pax.

  


User currently offlinesurfandsnow From United States of America, joined Jan 2009, 2832 posts, RR: 30
Reply 12, posted (4 years 2 months 3 weeks 3 days 12 hours ago) and read 8416 times:

Quoting rwSEA (Reply 8):
Thing is, KWI and BAH are both very small markets but they are very high-yield. UA probably can't fill a 777 on a daily basis to KWI because it is such a small market, but the traffic they do carry is high-yield. BAH will be the same - likely couldn't fill a plane, but can likely fill a few dozen seats at a very high fare. Fares from Europe to these places are also very high, usually in excess of $1,000 r/t. Take two high-yield, premium destinations that can each fill 777, and you have the potential for a full 777 with high fares serving two high-yield destinations.

Exactly. We see the European carriers do this all the time on their own routes to the Middle East - other than Dubai, most markets typically cannot support daily longhaul widebody service on their own. However, when combined together, its another story. Indeed if UA ever feels pressure on its DXB route (could easily happen if EK starts IAD) I could see them extending the flight to DOH, MCT, or even AUH. I've always thought UA should try a TWA-esque routing like IAD-CAI-RUH to get into two key Middle Eastern/African markets while building on its capital-to-capital strategy. On their own, CAI and RUH could probably never support UA to Washington, but together...



Flying in the middle seat of coach is much better than not flying at all!
User currently offlinechepos From Puerto Rico, joined Dec 2000, 6201 posts, RR: 11
Reply 13, posted (4 years 2 months 3 weeks 3 days 11 hours ago) and read 8197 times:

I am sure UAL did their research before they decided to launch this route, they just didn't throw a dart at a globe and see were it landed. It is a merket that does not have direct service to the US, other than connecting through a mega hub in Qatar, the UAE or Europe and they believed there was some potential there and decided to launch. I believe it makes sense, military traffic is very high yielding and that is what they are going for. Good for UAL to take a risk, hopefully it will pay off.

Regards,

Chepos



Fly the Flag!!!!
User currently offlinetoobz From Finland, joined Jan 2010, 765 posts, RR: 0
Reply 14, posted (4 years 2 months 3 weeks 3 days 11 hours ago) and read 8030 times:

[quote=
_as739x From United States of America, joined Apr 2003, 4660 posts, RR: 29
Reply 10, posted Sun Apr 18 2010 12:20:14 your local time (3 hours 31 minutes 21 secs ago) and read 1770 times:

Well it's booked under 20 from KWI-BAH. Not a good start!

That's not good. I hope the numbers get better. Anyone have info on aprox loads going out a month? Just to get an idea if flights look better than the first.


User currently offlineKU747 From Kuwait, joined Mar 2008, 375 posts, RR: 0
Reply 15, posted (4 years 2 months 3 weeks 3 days 11 hours ago) and read 7935 times:

Quoting surfandsnow (Reply 12):
most markets typically cannot support daily longhaul widebody service on their own.

Why don't UA re-structure IAD- KWI-BAH route to be 4X or 5X instead of daily flight??

By doing that, it probably will have a much better loads and can keep this route alive and profitable!

Any thoughts??

[Edited 2010-04-18 16:17:49]


707,727,73all,741,742,743,744,752,753,762,763,77all,300,310,319,320,321,332,333,343,346, L10,L15,DC10,MD11,SSC,VC10
User currently offlineJacobin777 From United States of America, joined Sep 2004, 14968 posts, RR: 60
Reply 16, posted (4 years 2 months 3 weeks 3 days 10 hours ago) and read 7690 times:

Quoting rwSEA (Reply 8):
UA probably can't fill a 777 on a daily basis to KWI because it is such a small market, but the traffic they do carry is high-yield.

  ....load factor was in the upper 60's/lower 70's (improving by the end of the year).....I've heard UA does a good job with yields and seats up front. Along with some freight, this route is probably successfu.....



"Up the Irons!"
User currently offlinefxramper From United States of America, joined Dec 2005, 7172 posts, RR: 86
Reply 17, posted (4 years 2 months 3 weeks 3 days 7 hours ago) and read 6282 times:
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Quoting LAXintl (Reply 6):
US business and military flow

There is no US business and the military flow was already built into the 'flow'. Someone that claims to be associated with UA should know this. I give this fairy tale 3 months before they bail on Bahrain.


User currently offlineUAL747DEN From United States of America, joined Dec 2003, 2392 posts, RR: 12
Reply 18, posted (4 years 2 months 3 weeks 3 days 7 hours ago) and read 6186 times:

Quoting KU747 (Reply 15):
Why don't UA re-structure IAD- KWI-BAH route to be 4X or 5X instead of daily flight??

By doing that, it probably will have a much better loads and can keep this route alive and profitable!

Any thoughts??

Because the route does very well daily.

The BAH add on is pretty much a no brainer with the kind of contracts UA already have on the route. This is an unusual route because the seats in the back of the plane will constantly pay for it and the front will be a nice profit. In most cases its the other way around.



/// UNITED AIRLINES
User currently offlineUnited960 From United States of America, joined Apr 2010, 36 posts, RR: 0
Reply 19, posted (4 years 2 months 3 weeks 3 days 6 hours ago) and read 5922 times:

The long aircraft sit on the ground at KWI must heavily influence the decision, right? The aircraft gets in to KWI at 2:50 pm and doesn't return until 11:40pm (for connection maximization at IAD and double overnight ops which tend to generate higher yields). The BAH turn is using up dead time for the aircraft.

Of course crew costs go up. I assume that the IAD-KWI leg is so long that both the pilots and flight attendants layover and then do the BAH turn on the afternoon of the 4th day, then layover again before doing the long all-nighter home (my guess is the trip is a six day for the flight attendants and a five day for the pilots, as a double crew gives pilots different legalities). So the big question is if the increased revenue can offset the higher crew costs - which I am guessing UA thinks it can.


User currently offlineVC10er From United States of America, joined Feb 2007, 2855 posts, RR: 10
Reply 20, posted (4 years 2 months 3 weeks 3 days 6 hours ago) and read 5623 times:
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The military Pax, for which I see hundreds when that flight arrives in IAD is paid for by who? The pocket of our service men and woman or the US Government?


The world is missing love, let's use our flights to spread it!
User currently onlineklwright69 From Saudi Arabia, joined Jan 2000, 2008 posts, RR: 3
Reply 21, posted (4 years 2 months 3 weeks 2 days 23 hours ago) and read 4273 times:

Quoting rwSEA (Reply 8):
Quoting klwright69 (Reply 7):


I think the fixed costs of a new station don't justify revenue potential. I think UA is struggling to Kuwait. I know CO does not like these kind of tags for the fixed costs to carry a few more souls onward.

Thing is, KWI and BAH are both very small markets but they are very high-yield. UA probably can't fill a 777 on a daily basis to KWI because it is such a small market, but the traffic they do carry is high-yield. BAH will be the same - likely couldn't fill a plane, but can likely fill a few dozen seats at a very high fare. Fares from Europe to these places are also very high, usually in excess of $1,000 r/t. Take two high-yield, premium destinations that can each fill 777, and you have the potential for a full 777 with high fares serving two high-yield destinations. This isn't the same scenario, for example, as UA's previous IAD-EZE-MVD service where the EZE flights were full on their own and MVD wasn't adding incremental revenue. I think this one has a shot.

No, I beg to differ, this flight does not have a shot. This is desperation. What evidence is there that Europe to the Gulf are high yield? Usually in excess of 1000$ ? I was looking at fares for a relative to visit me from FRA-AUH a week ago. The cheapest roundtrip was 600 dollars via Doha on QR, the next was nonstop on EY for 800 dollars.

I just ran a search on expedia for LHR-BAH June 2-June 9. Lowest nonstop fare is 667 dollars. Lowest one stop fare is 500 dollars (on Turkish). From FRA on the same dates the lowest one stop is 700 dollars, nonstop is 780.

There are several discount airlines flying within the Gulf, even out of Kuwait. Low fares abound flying among Gulf countries.

Quoting ElmoTheHobo (Reply 9):
The US military installation in Bahrain (US Naval Base Manama) will provide a lot of traffic. I flew BA to Bahrain (right before the strike), and there were (at least) two dozen sailors en route to the base there. Add to that contractors and others who weren't clean shaven with a high and tight I'd guess there might have been thirty of them total.

That's not scientific by any means, but the naval base there is a big deal for the US military. The flight will contribute significantly to the Kuwait flight.


True, this is not scientific.

Chepos, sure airlines do research. But the presence of research does not gurantee any success at all. I imagine it's an imperfect science airlines drop and add routes all the time. Routes fail terribly and are withdrawn. Research or not.

Bahrain is TINY with lots of established service. 20 pax will be the norm.


User currently offlinesurfandsnow From United States of America, joined Jan 2009, 2832 posts, RR: 30
Reply 22, posted (4 years 2 months 3 weeks 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 4040 times:

Quoting klwright69 (Reply 21):
There are several discount airlines flying within the Gulf, even out of Kuwait. Low fares abound flying among Gulf countries.

UA is obviously not trying to compete against the Gulf's LCCs. It is going after the profitable U.S.-Bahrain long-haul traffic that typically would be flying on the European carriers (BA, LH, KL), GF/AA, or the likes of EK, EY, and QR. Anybody flying on just the KWI-BAH sector is merely further adding to the bottom line.

Quoting klwright69 (Reply 21):
Bahrain is TINY with lots of established service. 20 pax will be the norm.

Bahrain is a small market, but one with incredibly close ties to the U.S. In addition to the exceptionally strong political/military alliance (plenty of folks heading right to/from Washington), there is a free-trade agreement in force - one of very few such arrangements today that involves the U.S. You have a lot of banks and financial firms that need to get folks between the countries. Also, don't forget that this service will appeal to the many wealthy Saudis and American oil industry folks headed to and from the eastern province of Saudi Arabia (Khobar/Dhahran/DMM) too. These flights may not be going out chock full, but that doesn't mean UA won't be making money. BAH does indeed have a lot of established service - there is a reason why prominent global airlines like BA and CX still fly there today, long after there is no longer a technical need to do so. The small market has proven its ability to support prestigious long-haul links all these years, in spite of regional wars, economic difficulties, and changing aircraft capabilities, competitive landscapes, and industry dynamics...



Flying in the middle seat of coach is much better than not flying at all!
User currently onlineklwright69 From Saudi Arabia, joined Jan 2000, 2008 posts, RR: 3
Reply 23, posted (4 years 2 months 3 weeks 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 3909 times:

surfandsnow, you could be right... I am interested in seeing how this will work...My mind is still not changed too much though...

cheers,


User currently offlineKU747 From Kuwait, joined Mar 2008, 375 posts, RR: 0
Reply 24, posted (4 years 2 months 3 weeks 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 3861 times:

Quoting UAL747DEN (Reply 18):
Because the route does very well daily.

Pax or cargo or both?

All what I'm reading from past threads and posts that this route is not doing well? and BAH tag was to increase the load!



707,727,73all,741,742,743,744,752,753,762,763,77all,300,310,319,320,321,332,333,343,346, L10,L15,DC10,MD11,SSC,VC10
25 ElmoTheHobo : Service members traveling on orders to/from Bahrain travel on the government's dime, that also includes service members on R&R. With plenty of ca
26 LAXintl : Well the US Navy allegedly generates over 1,000 one-way trips monthly from BAH just with its regular deployment schedule, which can now will fly UA i
27 Transpac787 : It is a 5-day trip. KWI, as a standalone before, was a 4-day trip, as it arrives at 600am on the morning of the 4th day. Now with the BAH tag, it bec
28 Amir : I was flying ou tof Bahrain yesterday on a regional flight at the same time when UA's flight was boarding and i can confirm that the flight went full.
29 Post contains images Jacobin777 : It all adds up...
30 Transpac787 : The BAH-KWI flight most definitely did *not* go full. KWI-IAD did, however.
31 LAXintl : I looked at historic DOT loads for United in KWI. Here is what they were for the first 9-mos of 2009. Jan- 71.5 Feb -61.2 Mar- 60.6 Apr - 61.1 May -67
32 Viscount724 : LH has a current special round trip fare ZRH-DXB-ZRH at CHF759 (USD714), including all fees/charges.
33 runway23 : what's the link for this?
34 Post contains links LAXintl : http://ostpxweb.dot.gov/aviation/usstatreport.htm
35 crosswinds21 : Correction: They will have a monopoly on direct WAS-BAH government and military traffic. The "Buy American" provision that you are referring to does
36 MaverickM11 : It's not supposed to be full! If BAHKWI is full then they have little reason to stop in KWI. The plane would sit in KWI regardless, so all UA has to
37 Post contains images yellowtail : NO, that would be another nameless carrier Lets not forget that the cycles involved in this tag are also high cost.
38 Post contains images Transpac787 : No kidding Reply 28 said they saw the BAH-KWI flight go full. I was stating it did NOT go full.
39 abrelosojos : = This is a relatively inexpensive tag from KWI that they can experiment with and drop. The cost of AOG vs. incremental revenue they can build. Perso
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