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UA-CO Merger: Dominate NYC  
User currently offlinerjpieces From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Posted (4 years 5 months 2 days 23 hours ago) and read 13593 times:

If United and Continental merge, it will dominate NYC. A massive hub at Newark with intercontinental service to almost every major world city--Hong Kong, Tokyo, Shanghai, Beijing, Delhi, Mumbai, Tel Aviv, every major European city, etc--and frequent domestic service to every key American city. Shuttle-like service from LaGuardia to Chicago and Houston (as well as service to Denver, Washington, and Cleveland). And P.S. 757s from JFK-LAX & SFO.

No other airline would be able to match this level of service in NYC. It would be amazing to see.

51 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineSTT757 From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 16872 posts, RR: 51
Reply 1, posted (4 years 5 months 2 days 23 hours ago) and read 13492 times:

CO currently is handling 24.5 Million passengers per year through EWR and LGA combined, the next closest carrier in the market is DL with 19.5 at EWR, JFK and LGA combined. CO merging with UA would add another 3.7 million passengers per year, bringing their NYC total close to 30 million passengers per year.

Pretty impressive.



Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
User currently offlinecommavia From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 11641 posts, RR: 61
Reply 2, posted (4 years 5 months 2 days 23 hours ago) and read 13488 times:

Quoting rjpieces (Thread starter):
If United and Continental merge, it will dominate NYC.

Not really.

But even with a merger, the merged airline would still only constitute less than 1/3 of the overall market. That's hardly domination by any definition.

Quoting rjpieces (Thread starter):
A massive hub at Newark with intercontinental service to almost every major world city--Hong Kong, Tokyo, Shanghai, Beijing, Delhi, Mumbai, Tel Aviv, every major European city, etc--and frequent domestic service to every key American city. Shuttle-like service from LaGuardia to Chicago and Houston (as well as service to Denver, Washington, and Cleveland).
Quoting rjpieces (Thread starter):
And P.S. 757s from JFK-LAX & SFO.

Personally, post-merger, I wonder how the transcons will be handled.

Part of me says that United will keep the p.s. 757s to JFK because it is a part of their franchise that they've had going back decades.

On the other hand, the primary driver of these premium transcons routes - going back before the 757s and even 9/11 - has always been the West Coast markets, LAX and SFO, not JFK. Even at its peak, United's presence in New York was rather minimal compared with AA, Delta, Continental, TWA, JetBlue, etc. Now, the driver of these markets is even more lopsided, as United today has a very small presence in New York, whereas they are huge in SFO and LAX.

Part of me thinks that, if given the opportunity, seeing as EWR is a massive East Coast hub, it would make some sense to consolidate the p.s. transcons at EWR. I know, I know - JFK has always been where the more premium traffic has gone. But, given United's strong service and franchise in these markets, and built on the strength of EWR, I think they could make the switch to EWR and still sustain the p.s. service successfully. This would free up capacity at EWR to switch the Continental planes now doing those LAX/SFO runs to other markets, plus the combined company could make a few bucks selling off those JFK slots to the highest bidder.

I don't know - just thinking out loud (or in text, as it were  .)

Quoting rjpieces (Thread starter):
No other airline would be able to match this level of service in NYC.

True, no other single airline would as big in aggregate in the New York market, but no airline can technically match CO's level of service at EWR now, and that doesn't make the market "dominated" or any less competitive by any means. Pre- and post-merger, the market overall would remain incredibly competitive and really fragmented three ways, with CO over at EWR and AA and DL splitting JFK and LGA (plus maybe US - really Express - at LGA, but maybe not for long).


User currently offlinescorpy From United States of America, joined Dec 2006, 400 posts, RR: 1
Reply 3, posted (4 years 5 months 2 days 23 hours ago) and read 13417 times:

Quoting commavia (Reply 2):
On the other hand, the primary driver of these premium transcons routes - going back before the 757s and even 9/11 - has always been the West Coast markets, LAX and SFO, not JFK. Even at its peak, United's presence in New York was rather minimal compared with AA, Delta, Continental, TWA, JetBlue, etc. Now, the driver of these markets is even more lopsided, as United today has a very small presence in New York, whereas they are huge in SFO and LAX.

Part of me thinks that, if given the opportunity, seeing as EWR is a massive East Coast hub, it would make some sense to consolidate the p.s. transcons at EWR. I know, I know - JFK has always been where the more premium traffic has gone. But, given United's strong service and franchise in these markets, and built on the strength of EWR, I think they could make the switch to EWR and still sustain the p.s. service successfully. This would free up capacity at EWR to switch the Continental planes now doing those LAX/SFO runs to other markets, plus the combined company could make a few bucks selling off those JFK slots to the highest bidder.

I don't know. It sounds good in theory but I think in practice they would not want to mess wtih the widely reported great yeilds and loyal flyer base that takes these flights. perhaps some tweakings of timings/frequencies to match up with what is at EWR, but I think for these type of customers they would be willing to pay more for their airport preference. (if they are already stumping for full F fares). Besides, its only 13 fairly old 757s that don't need any refurbishment, so why not leave it and see how it goes?


User currently offlineOA412 From United States of America, joined Dec 2000, 5279 posts, RR: 24
Reply 4, posted (4 years 5 months 2 days 23 hours ago) and read 13393 times:

Quoting commavia (Reply 2):
Not really.

But even with a merger, the merged airline would still only constitute less than 1/3 of the overall market. That's hardly domination by any definition.

Exactly. NYC is so large a market and so fragmented that it's really quite difficult to dominate it. A combined UA/CO will have a somewhat larger presence, but they will still not "dominate" the market. AA, B6, and DL will be just fine.

Quoting commavia (Reply 2):
Pre- and post-merger, the market overall would remain incredibly competitive and really fragmented three ways, with CO over at EWR and AA and DL splitting JFK and LGA (plus maybe US - really Express - at LGA, but maybe not for long).

  



Hughes Airwest - Top Banana In The West
User currently offlineFlighty From United States of America, joined Apr 2007, 8548 posts, RR: 2
Reply 5, posted (4 years 5 months 2 days 23 hours ago) and read 13393 times:

I think the original poster is overestimating the presence of UA in New York. In NYC, United is just another airline.

User currently offlinepeanuts From Netherlands, joined Dec 2009, 1438 posts, RR: 4
Reply 6, posted (4 years 5 months 2 days 23 hours ago) and read 13292 times:

UA doesn't add too much to NYC with a merged UA/CO other than JFK-LAX/SFO.

Over time, we may see UA retreat out of JFK and consolidate their services to EWR.
If not, I can see AA and DL go all out to get UA out of JFK.

In essence, I believe a merged UA/CO will only sharpen AA and DL. This is a good thing.



Question Conventional Wisdom. While not all commonly held beliefs are wrong…all should be questioned.
User currently offlinescorpy From United States of America, joined Dec 2006, 400 posts, RR: 1
Reply 7, posted (4 years 5 months 2 days 23 hours ago) and read 13267 times:

Quoting peanuts (Reply 6):
UA doesn't add too much to NYC with a merged UA/CO other than JFK-LAX/SFO.

they also have their 'shuttle' to ORD (something like 17 p.d.) and a decent schedule to DEN.

Still not massive, but a decent addition.


User currently offlineSTT757 From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 16872 posts, RR: 51
Reply 8, posted (4 years 5 months 2 days 23 hours ago) and read 13226 times:

The JFK-LAX/ JFK-SFO flights will survive just as the LGA-ORD, LGA-DEN, LGA-IAD and LGA-IAH flights will survive. LAX and SFO are hubs, they can't serve LGA from those hubs so they go to JFK. Having a hub at EWR will not change this equation. The PS flights to JFK are a small niche service that is very profitable, the capacity of UA's PS 757s is about the same as CO's 737-500s. To be able to handle the traffic into the EWR hub they would need to offer double the amount of flights into EWR than is currently offered if they were to utilize the UA PS 757s.


Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
User currently offlineSTT757 From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 16872 posts, RR: 51
Reply 9, posted (4 years 5 months 2 days 23 hours ago) and read 13213 times:

Quoting peanuts (Reply 6):
UA doesn't add too much to NYC with a merged UA/CO other than JFK-LAX/SFO.

Over time, we may see UA retreat out of JFK and consolidate their services to EWR.
If not, I can see AA and DL go all out to get UA out of JFK.

UA brings shuttle service to Chicago, one of the most important business centers in the US after NYC. And if AA and DL have not been able to drive UA out of the JFK-LAX/SFO market previously, why would they now after they are about to boost their local and national presence substantially.



Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
User currently offlinepeanuts From Netherlands, joined Dec 2009, 1438 posts, RR: 4
Reply 10, posted (4 years 5 months 2 days 23 hours ago) and read 13155 times:

Quoting STT757 (Reply 9):
UA brings shuttle service to Chicago, one of the most important business centers in the US after NYC. And if AA and DL have not been able to drive UA out of the JFK-LAX/SFO market previously, why would they now after they are about to boost their local and national presence substantially

A New UA would be such a big carrier. Huge carriers have, at some point, huge problems. Maintaining 3 airports in one city may not be feasible in the future, when oil rises through the roof again. Maintaining LGA and EWR could be plenty at some point, for the New UA.

I believe that AA and DL will benefit at JFK/LGA/HPN from a UA/CO merger.

[Edited 2010-04-23 19:10:47]


Question Conventional Wisdom. While not all commonly held beliefs are wrong…all should be questioned.
User currently offlineSTT757 From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 16872 posts, RR: 51
Reply 11, posted (4 years 5 months 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 13098 times:

Quoting peanuts (Reply 10):
A New UA would be such a big carrier. Huge carriers have, at some point, huge problems. Maintaining 3 airports in one city may not be feasible in the future, when oil rises through the roof again. Maintaining LGA and EWR could be plenty at some point, for the New UA.

I maintain that AA and DL will benefit at JFK/LGA/HPN from a UA/CO merger.

The trans Con flights from JFK will suffer no more from a CO/UA merger than flights from LGA to ORD, DEN, IAD and IAH. UA has hubs at LAX and SFO, those flights cannot go into LGA. Trans-cons into EWR would need to balance the huge O&D with the connecting traffic through the massive hub, the JFK-LAX/SFO flights are entirely O&D thus freeing up capacity at EWR for more connecting traffic.



Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
User currently offlinepeanuts From Netherlands, joined Dec 2009, 1438 posts, RR: 4
Reply 12, posted (4 years 5 months 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 13055 times:

Quoting STT757 (Reply 9):
And if AA and DL have not been able to drive UA out of the JFK-LAX/SFO market previously, why would they now after they are about to boost their local and national presence substantially.

Actually, now (after this merger) more than ever would probably the best time, for AA and DL, to bring it home to UA at JFK. The New UA would be primarily focused on EWR, in the NYC area. UA may not be able to keep their eyes on the ball at all times. They may falter at JFK.



Question Conventional Wisdom. While not all commonly held beliefs are wrong…all should be questioned.
User currently offlineSTT757 From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 16872 posts, RR: 51
Reply 13, posted (4 years 5 months 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 13022 times:

Quoting peanuts (Reply 12):
They may falter at JFK.

There's not much to take their eye off of, they have lucrative contracts for JFK-LAX and JFK-SFO connects with UA's Pacific gateway.



Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
User currently offlinepeanuts From Netherlands, joined Dec 2009, 1438 posts, RR: 4
Reply 14, posted (4 years 5 months 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 12859 times:

Quoting STT757 (Reply 13):
There's not much to take their eye off of, they have lucrative contracts for JFK-LAX and JFK-SFO connects with UA's Pacific gateway.

They may have those contracts to LAX now....
AA and DL also compete for Pacific traffic.

My main point is that a merged UA are not necessarily acrobats in aviation. The competition is always around the corner trying to seize an opportunity.
UA has been focused on their P.S. to LAX/SFO (with success). Now they also have to keep a major hub operating (EWR) in NYC, plus important business traffic from LGA.

Juggling all three with success will be a major challenge. Now, more than ever before, is a good time for AA and DL to find some weak spots on the New UA and put the pressure on in NYC.



Question Conventional Wisdom. While not all commonly held beliefs are wrong…all should be questioned.
User currently offlinescorpy From United States of America, joined Dec 2006, 400 posts, RR: 1
Reply 15, posted (4 years 5 months 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 12818 times:

Quoting peanuts (Reply 14):
Juggling all three with success will be a major challenge. Now, more than ever before, is a good time for AA and DL to find some weak spots on the New UA and put the pressure on in NYC.

why would it be any different from any other large airline? This doesn't seem to make much sense. if AA and DL do well, it will becasue of them, not because of some notion that an airline can't cope with 3 stations in the same city.


User currently offlineFL787 From United States of America, joined Aug 2007, 1542 posts, RR: 12
Reply 16, posted (4 years 5 months 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 12772 times:

Quoting peanuts (Reply 12):
The New UA would be primarily focused on EWR, in the NYC area. UA may not be able to keep their eyes on the ball at all times. They may falter at JFK.

Well maybe while DL is focusing on NYC, someone should "sneak up" on them and build a 500 flight hub in ATL because there's no way DL could focus on ATL and NYC at the same time...  



717,72S,732/3/4/5/G/8/9,744,752/3,763/4,772/3,D9S/5,M8/90,D10,319/20/21,332/3,388,CR2/7/9,EM2,ER4,E70/75/90,SF3,AR8
User currently offlineOA412 From United States of America, joined Dec 2000, 5279 posts, RR: 24
Reply 17, posted (4 years 5 months 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 12724 times:

Quoting FL787 (Reply 16):
Well maybe while DL is focusing on NYC, someone should "sneak up" on them and build a 500 flight hub in ATL because there's no way DL could focus on ATL and NYC at the same time...

How is that even remotely the same? He's talking about an airline focusing on 2 airports serving the same city. You're talking about 2 cities in completely different parts of the country separated by 760 miles.



Hughes Airwest - Top Banana In The West
User currently offlinepeanuts From Netherlands, joined Dec 2009, 1438 posts, RR: 4
Reply 18, posted (4 years 5 months 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 12692 times:

Quoting scorpy (Reply 15):
Quoting FL787 (Reply 16):

I never said an airline couldn't cope at 3 major airports in one city.
I said: Now, more than ever, is a huge opportunity for AA and DL to take ownership of JFK. Will they succeed? Who knows?

In the past, UA practically "babied" their P.S. JFK-LAX/SFO. Because of that attention given to merely two routes, they got very successful at it.
Now they get to "baby" EWR on top of that. To even pretend this will be a cakewalk for UA is to have your head in the sand. Something will falter. AA and DL will benefit.

In the end, we will see a very healthy 3-way in NYC. (no pun intended).



Question Conventional Wisdom. While not all commonly held beliefs are wrong…all should be questioned.
User currently offlineSTT757 From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 16872 posts, RR: 51
Reply 19, posted (4 years 5 months 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 12669 times:

Quoting OA412 (Reply 17):
He's talking about an airline focusing on 2 airports serving the same city

Still in separate States though, and as many posters have pointed out most of CO's EWR traffic does not originate in NYC. So I think under any circumstance JFK-LAX/SFO will do just fine, the JFK-LAX/SFO flights will be more dependent on O&D than the EWR flights which will feed the hub.

[Edited 2010-04-23 19:50:20]


Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
User currently offlineFL787 From United States of America, joined Aug 2007, 1542 posts, RR: 12
Reply 20, posted (4 years 5 months 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 12563 times:

Quoting OA412 (Reply 17):
How is that even remotely the same? He's talking about an airline focusing on 2 airports serving the same city. You're talking about 2 cities in completely different parts of the country separated by 760 miles.

The point I'm making is that an airline is not a human being. It can be focused on its entire network at once. I guarantee that if UA pulls out of JFK it will not be because it was too busy "focusing" on EWR. It will be because it does not make economic sense any longer.

And if you want a better analogy, how can DL focus on their EWR and JFK operations when they are so busy with trying to build up LGA? The answer is they can "focus" just like UA would be able to focus on all their NYC airports.



717,72S,732/3/4/5/G/8/9,744,752/3,763/4,772/3,D9S/5,M8/90,D10,319/20/21,332/3,388,CR2/7/9,EM2,ER4,E70/75/90,SF3,AR8
User currently offlineAIRBORNE1 From United States of America, joined Feb 2008, 99 posts, RR: 0
Reply 21, posted (4 years 5 months 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 12248 times:

I am so tired of these United haters. Always wish they fail. They aren't given up JFK. It's a money maker
for United and the P.S. service is doing very well. Let up on United. They are coming back so get used to it.


User currently offlineByrdluvs747 From United States of America, joined Jul 2004, 2361 posts, RR: 1
Reply 22, posted (4 years 5 months 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 12212 times:

Quoting peanuts (Reply 18):
Now, more than ever, is a huge opportunity for AA and DL to take ownership of JFK

AA/OW won't take control of anything if they let the port authority cooerce them out of T7.



The 747: The hands who designed it were guided by god.
User currently offlinepeanuts From Netherlands, joined Dec 2009, 1438 posts, RR: 4
Reply 23, posted (4 years 5 months 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 12015 times:

Quoting AIRBORNE1 (Reply 21):
I am so tired of these United haters.

Don't get emotional. It's just business. Nobody is wishing UA anything bad. Just your imagination.

Quoting AIRBORNE1 (Reply 21):
Let up on United.

Again, too much emotion. I hope you give your pet more love than an airline. I would.

Quoting AIRBORNE1 (Reply 21):
They are coming back so get used to it.

Huh? Where did they go? Didn't realize they had left...


Just trying to keep it real guys...

This is a site full of speculators. UA and CO merging is fantastic. Ignoring potential problems due to it would be plain ignorance.



Question Conventional Wisdom. While not all commonly held beliefs are wrong…all should be questioned.
User currently offlineUnited1 From United States of America, joined Oct 2003, 5964 posts, RR: 9
Reply 24, posted (4 years 5 months 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 11942 times:

Quoting rjpieces (Thread starter):
No other airline would be able to match this level of service in NYC. It would be amazing to see.

They won't dominate any airport but EWR and certainly not the region but it will be rather amazing to see the smallest of the legacy airlines in NYC, United, become the biggest overnight.

Quoting peanuts (Reply 23):
Quoting AIRBORNE1 (Reply 21):
They are coming back so get used to it.

Huh? Where did they go? Didn't realize they had left...

I belive that he is talking about UAs finances and product which are both lightyears ahead of where they were 24 months ago.



Semper Fi - PowerPoint makes us stupid.
25 commavia : Why so defensive? Nobody is "hating" United, wishing it to fail, etc. In fact, as I've said countless times, United's network and product are still o
26 STT757 : First of all, happy five year A-Net anniversary. Second again they are no more likely to cut the JFK-LAX/SFO flights in favor of EWR than they are to
27 Post contains images jfklganyc : Dominate is a tough word for me to swallow conisdering they will have a token presence at best at both of New York City's airports. I also believe PS
28 Post contains images commavia : Ha ha - thanks. I didn't even realize it until you said that! Again, I definitely see the point you're making. I guess I just sort of see those other
29 rjpieces : Of course when I said "dominate" above, I did not mean to imply that they will carry over 50% of the traffic in NYC. This is, of course, impossible fo
30 Lufthansa411 : Not at all. All three NYC airports serve different purposes, and PS reflects that. There are a lot of businessmen, wealthy (sub)urbanites, and others
31 deltal1011man : Cam I going to disagree to a point here. 1 airlines could pump alot of seats into NYC if they wanted to. Delta.....most of the slots at JFK are 50 se
32 STT757 : Let's put it this way, CO is the only carrier to reach and surpassed 20 million (24.5 to exact) passengers per year in the NYC market. If they merge
33 United1 : The entire airport might be sitting on 100 slots but DL sure isn't. DL at peak is a little less then 190 daily flights out of JFK.
34 VC10er : Dear United Bashers, Currently in the USA the is no other airline than United when it come to style, class and comfort, except Continenental. Over th
35 STT757 : CO is utilizing a ton of EWR slots with 37 seat DH-2s and 50 seat ERJs, CO has more ERJs at EWR than DL has at JFK, EWR and LGA combined. If CO were
36 Post contains images commavia : I don't think so. As it stands now, at least according to FlightAware, Continental has more mainline flights out of EWR than Delta has flights at JFK
37 GlobalCabotage : I would not say CO/UA would dominate NYC. AA and DL have something to say about that (as well as Jet Blue). UA is a minimal player in NYC and CO domin
38 VC10er : Naturally, I am speaking about my own taste based at least on trying the other airlines often. Flying United out of NYC is a pain in the ass. But I pe
39 STT757 : IAD has abundance of capacity yet to be realized, I would be directing as much of the Regional flying (both props and ERJs) into IAD to take some of t
40 commavia : AA has a program just like Global Services - called Concierge Key - that offers pretty much the exact same benefits. Other airlines have programs lik
41 STT757 : That's the thing, I would be sad if in a merger the CO brand disappeared. They are my hometown airline here in New Jersey, I've been a Onepass member
42 worldtraveler : UA and CO in NYC would indeed be a significant player in NYC but UA duplicates every route that CO already flies out of EWR. Because of that CO/UA's c
43 VC10er : Concierge Key fom AA was also in the study. The article covered only the new "by invitation only" trend and tried to acertain what "exactly" did you
44 United1 : I All of those routes you speak of are flights from EWR/LGA/JFK to UAs hubs. Much like DLs merger with NW no slots in the NYC market had to be diveste
45 panamair : p.s. has chopped off amenities along the way, and frankly, most of the product is not that different from what AA and DL offer on their JFK-LAX/SFO t
46 jetlanta : I suspect the DOT position is going to be more similar to its postion on the DL/US swap than the DL/NW merger when it comes to NYC. Given the price t
47 United1 : Unlikely....again UAs market share in NYC is the smallest of the legacies. Adding CO+ doesn't change the proportion of traffic all that much. In the
48 STT757 : They would obviously utilize those redundant slots for new flying opportunities. That's one of the areas where CO's service should be incorporated in
49 Post contains images worldtraveler : DL and NW did not operate mainline service to each other's hubs from NYC. DL offered a few RJ flights from JFK to NW's hubs, not mainline service. No
50 JBAirwaysFan : Now that the UA/US merger is off, would US want to go ahead and pursue the slot swap with DL again? If so that will give Delta a considerable increas
51 Post contains links ManuCH : There is now an official thread to discuss this. Please continue discussion there: Possible UA/CO Merger: Impact On Airports (by Moderators Apr 25 201
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