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Merged UA-CO: What International Network Changes?  
User currently offlinerjpieces From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Posted (4 years 6 months 2 days 8 hours ago) and read 7028 times:

If United and Continental merge, what are the likely immediate international network changes to be implemented? It seems to be the most obvious might be to put United's three-class 767-300 ERs on EWR/IAH-LHR. A route like IAD-Moscow probably doesn't require a first-class cabin so there is room to make some swaps.

What are the other likely immediate changes? I could see United adding IAD-TLV and switching EWR-TLV to 767-300 ERs as well. Slightly more capacity, they could route more connections through IAD rather than EWR, while tapping into the DC-Israel market and adding first class to NYC-TLV. There won't be AVOD in Y, but then again Continental didn't have AVOD in Y until about two years ago.

Thoughts?

40 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineBOACCunard From United States of America, joined Dec 2009, 864 posts, RR: 1
Reply 1, posted (4 years 6 months 1 day 23 hours ago) and read 6608 times:

It remains to be seen whether the new UA would operate two-class international widebodies. Regardless, I agree that EWR-LHR in particular is obviously a route that deserves F. And UA currently operates any number of routes where F is probably not necessarily. For example, does anyone else offer F to FCO? AA uses two-class aircraft on JFK-FCO and ORD-FCO and the other airlines flying from North America to FCO don't have F at all. If UA now has two-class aircraft, would it keep three-class service to FCO? I doubt it.


Getting There is Half the Fun!
User currently offlineCOSPN From Northern Mariana Islands, joined Oct 2001, 1623 posts, RR: 0
Reply 2, posted (4 years 6 months 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 6477 times:

I think Mabe GUM-SFO flight to feed Airmike to asian places like MNL or CNS bypassing NRT

User currently onlineFL787 From United States of America, joined Aug 2007, 1545 posts, RR: 12
Reply 3, posted (4 years 6 months 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 6370 times:

Just some guesses assuming UA keeps CO planes in a two class configuration for a while:

IAD-FCO>764
ORD-FCO>764
IAD-DME>762 in winter/764 in summer
IAD-MAD>752 (nobody has talked about the EI JV in a UA/CO combo)
EWR-TLV>744
EWR-NRT>744
EWR-LHR>763s
EWR-CDG>763s
EWR-FRA>744?



717,72S,732/3/4/5/G/8/9,744,752/3,763/4,772/3,D9S/5,M8/90,D10,319/20/21,332/3,388,CR2/7/9,EM2,ER4,E70/75/90,SF3,AR8
User currently offlineAznMadSci From United States of America, joined Dec 2007, 3681 posts, RR: 6
Reply 4, posted (4 years 6 months 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 6281 times:

Quoting COSPN (Reply 2):
I think Mabe GUM-SFO flight to feed Airmike to asian places like MNL or CNS bypassing NRT

What about GUM-LAX? It seems this route may have a slightly higher priority than GUM-SFO.



The journey of life is not based on the accomplishments, but the experience.
User currently offlinehuaiwei From Singapore, joined Oct 2008, 1116 posts, RR: 2
Reply 5, posted (4 years 6 months 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 6240 times:

Quoting rjpieces (Thread starter):
A route like IAD-Moscow probably doesn't require a first-class cabin

But SQ flies 3-class on this route...thou it continues on to SIN that is.  

Any possible changes to the Transpac routes? With the merger, it is my hope that it will triumph over DL in this important market for the future. And its prospects looks very bright because the combined airline will be serving multiple destinations in Asia from the important American cities of NYC and Chicago, plus SF and Seattle which are more relevant to the Asians. It's only weakness is from LA where it only flies to NRT, so it may wish to consider flying to more Asian destinations from LA with the combined strength from CO.

DL may boast it has more frequencies over the Pacific now, but with the exception of Portland, which Asian seriously cares about Atlanta, Salt Lake City, Minneapolis or Detroit?



It's huaiwei...not huawei. I have nothing to do with the PRC! :)
User currently offlineAznMadSci From United States of America, joined Dec 2007, 3681 posts, RR: 6
Reply 6, posted (4 years 6 months 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 6209 times:

Quoting huaiwei (Reply 5):
But SQ flies 3-class on this route...thou it continues on to SIN that is.

SQ flies IAH-DME-SIN, not IAD-DME, SIN.



The journey of life is not based on the accomplishments, but the experience.
User currently offlinehuaiwei From Singapore, joined Oct 2008, 1116 posts, RR: 2
Reply 7, posted (4 years 6 months 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 6195 times:

Quoting AznMadSci (Reply 6):
SQ flies IAH-DME-SIN, not IAD-DME, SIN.

Whoops my eyes are probably glazed over. My bad! 



It's huaiwei...not huawei. I have nothing to do with the PRC! :)
User currently offlineOlympicATH From United Kingdom, joined Jul 2001, 293 posts, RR: 0
Reply 8, posted (4 years 6 months 1 day 11 hours ago) and read 5780 times:

I think ORD-ATH is a no brainer. Perhaps move CO's seasonal EWR-ATH to ORD.

User currently offlineCODC10 From United States of America, joined Jul 2000, 2436 posts, RR: 6
Reply 9, posted (4 years 6 months 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 5680 times:

Quoting rjpieces (Thread starter):
If United and Continental merge, what are the likely immediate international network changes to be implemented?

It is unlikely that any route swaps would be immediate. Consider that it took Delta around 18 months to combine the operations.

Quoting rjpieces (Thread starter):
EWR-TLV to 767-300 ERs as well.

EWR-TLV needs the volume of the 777. The 50 CO J seats would generate more revenue than the combined 32 F/J seats of a UA 763ER, and the 777s. Don't forget that CO operates the route 2x daily with the 772ER, and it is extremely popular. Now, if we were talking about the 747 replacing the 777, then this I would be inclined to agree with.

Quoting BOACCunard (Reply 1):
EWR-LHR in particular is obviously a route that deserves F

EWR-LHR would probably go at least 3x daily with 777s, and the rest with 763ERs.


User currently offlineMasseyBrown From United States of America, joined Dec 2002, 5495 posts, RR: 7
Reply 10, posted (4 years 6 months 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 5597 times:

How much slack is there in UA widebody utilization? We know CO's fleet is pretty much maximized; but what about UA?


I love long German words like 'Freundschaftsbezeigungen'.
User currently offlineiluv747400 From United States of America, joined Jan 2000, 372 posts, RR: 0
Reply 11, posted (4 years 6 months 1 day 9 hours ago) and read 5492 times:

How about extending Continental's flights to NRT to new cities in Asia? I think MNL would be a good option as CO already has a presence there (low startup costs). And maybe CGK or KUL? With feed from New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Houston, San Francisco, Seattle, and Washington, perhaps those cities could be supported.

User currently offlineelbandgeek From United States of America, joined Jun 2008, 758 posts, RR: 0
Reply 12, posted (4 years 6 months 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 5295 times:

I think the first thing they'll try to do is appropriate capacity between IAD and EWR. With New York being much more O&D heavy while working with less space, it makes the most sense to shift routes that favor connections to IAD, allowing them to make the best of the resources they have at both airports. As that happens they can start adjusting things around the network as they see fit. I can imagine the 764s could find good use at ORD for European routes that need more capacity but not the legs of the 777, which can do more IAD/EWR-Asia and SFO/LAX-Europe

User currently offlineEWRCabincrew From United States of America, joined May 2006, 5527 posts, RR: 56
Reply 13, posted (4 years 6 months 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 5247 times:

Quoting OlympicATH (Reply 8):
Perhaps move CO's seasonal EWR-ATH to ORD.

It's no longer seasonal, it is year-round. As of this year.



You can't cure stupid
User currently offlineewrkid From United States of America, joined Dec 2008, 594 posts, RR: 0
Reply 14, posted (4 years 6 months 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 5223 times:

Quoting CODC10 (Reply 9):
EWR-TLV needs the volume of the 777. The 50 CO J seats would generate more revenue than the combined 32 F/J seats of a UA 763ER, and the 777s. Don't forget that CO operates the route 2x daily with the 772ER, and it is extremely popular. Now, if we were talking about the 747 replacing the 777, then this I would be inclined to agree with.

  

Quoting iluv747400 (Reply 11):
How about extending Continental's flights to NRT to new cities in Asia? I think MNL would be a good option as CO already has a presence there (low startup costs). And maybe CGK or KUL? With feed from New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Houston, San Francisco, Seattle, and Washington, perhaps those cities could be supported.

I think that ICN might be a good first start due to * connections and such it might even make sense to just do EWR-ICN instead of EWR-NRT-ICN.


User currently offlineweb500sjc From United States of America, joined Sep 2009, 749 posts, RR: 0
Reply 15, posted (4 years 6 months 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 5223 times:
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Have UA and CO even merged?


Boiler Up!
User currently offlineBralo20 From Belgium, joined May 2008, 625 posts, RR: 0
Reply 16, posted (4 years 6 months 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 5178 times:

BRU could use a second daily from EWR or at least a permanent upgrade to a 777 to start with. SN is desperatly waiting to codeshare with CO but they seem to hold it of due lack of availability.

User currently offlineCubsrule From United States of America, joined May 2004, 23148 posts, RR: 20
Reply 17, posted (4 years 6 months 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 5159 times:

Quoting CODC10 (Reply 9):
EWR-TLV needs the volume of the 777.

Agreed. If UA and CO keep a mixed 2-class/3-class fleet (which I think is a good idea), it'll actually be interesting to see what the configuration of the 744s is. A route like EWR-TLV might benefit from a 744 configured more like Delta's 744s, and I can't think of that many routes that would require both the size and the revenue mix of UA's 744s.



I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
User currently offlinePacificClipper From United States of America, joined Aug 2009, 312 posts, RR: 0
Reply 18, posted (4 years 6 months 1 day 7 hours ago) and read 4836 times:

Quoting MasseyBrown (Reply 10):
How much slack is there in UA widebody utilization?

Not immediately available, but a few of the ships noted below could be reactivated and have the interior mods done to free up other a/c (e.g. replacing a 2x 767 or 777 service with a single 744 frees up two airframes). This assumes that the 744s below are not due for heavy checks which would make this swap out option take longer, and perhaps not viable.

This idea would also create slack to allow for a faster interior mod and/or repaint cycle for the widebody fleet.

Stored 744s
------------------
B744 -193, 194, 195, 196 & 198



Fly Beautiful :: 747
User currently offlinetommy767 From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 6662 posts, RR: 9
Reply 19, posted (4 years 6 months 1 day 7 hours ago) and read 4762 times:

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 17):
and I can't think of that many routes that would require both the size and the revenue mix of UA's 744s.

EWR-FCO on a seasonal basis at least could support a UA 744.

A merger UA/CO would have some interesting fleet shifts for certain. The 764 and 762 will be wild cards. CO has not done any interior updates for either aircraft since delivery. The 764s I could see being based from ORD for flights to Europe in addition to EWR and IAH. Not sure if the 762/764 would ever make it out to SFO/LAX for European crossings but possibly from SFO-Asia. The 762s are also niche aircraft but I would doubt that they would dispose of them. They are relatively new and the range they can get out of them is impressive.

The 764s can realistically do better than HNL routes from IAH/EWR. I could see EWR/IAH-HNL going to UA 2 class 763s.

Would like to see IAH-Dubai on 777s (or IAH-IAD-Dubai)



"KEEP CLIMBING" -- DELTA
User currently offlineCubsrule From United States of America, joined May 2004, 23148 posts, RR: 20
Reply 20, posted (4 years 6 months 1 day 7 hours ago) and read 4716 times:

Quoting tommy767 (Reply 19):
EWR-FCO on a seasonal basis at least could support a UA 744.

But it doesn't need F, does it?



I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
User currently offlinegoldenstate From United States of America, joined Feb 2010, 573 posts, RR: 4
Reply 21, posted (4 years 6 months 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 4596 times:

Quoting huaiwei (Reply 5):
Any possible changes to the Transpac routes? With the merger, it is my hope that it will triumph over DL in this important market for the future. And its prospects looks very bright because the combined airline will be serving multiple destinations in Asia from the important American cities of NYC and Chicago, plus SF and Seattle which are more relevant to the Asians. It's only weakness is from LA where it only flies to NRT, so it may wish to consider flying to more Asian destinations from LA with the combined strength from CO.

DL may boast it has more frequencies over the Pacific now, but with the exception of Portland, which Asian seriously cares about Atlanta, Salt Lake City, Minneapolis or Detroit?

Your hopes notwithstanding, it is unlikely that either DL or UA will "triumph over" the other. Assuming UA and CO can even pull off a merger in today's regulatory climate, the more likely outcome is a state of parity or something close to that between DL and a combined UA/CO.

DL is present in more traditional Asia gateways such as LAX, SFO, SEA, and NYC. It's not clear to me how you arrive at your definition of how a city is relevant to Asia, but a competent airline management professional would probably say that if a city can support profitable nonstop service to Asia, it is relevant.

Quoting web500sjc (Reply 15):
Have UA and CO even merged?

Best insight in this discussion so far.


User currently offlinehuaiwei From Singapore, joined Oct 2008, 1116 posts, RR: 2
Reply 22, posted (4 years 6 months 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 4470 times:

Quoting goldenstate (Reply 21):
it is unlikely that either DL or UA will "triumph over" the other.

I suppose you hadn't read about those DL fellas harping endlessly about how DL is now THE dominant airline on the transpac market, including even the Asian carriers. I suppose nothing can shut them up better than to have another American carrier to reclaim a position it has maintained over the years.

Quoting goldenstate (Reply 21):
DL is present in more traditional Asia gateways such as LAX, SFO, SEA, and NYC. It's not clear to me how you arrive at your definition of how a city is relevant to Asia, but a competent airline management professional would probably say that if a city can support profitable nonstop service to Asia, it is relevant.

You said it yourself. "Traditional Asia gateways". Those gateways are not "traditional" by chance, and I do not think it necessary to actually explain to you why LAX, SFO, SEA or NYC are more likely able to sustain transpac services than ATL, SLC, MSP or DTW.

Meanwhile, while DL may have a presence in those markets, UA/CO dominates the non-stop sectors. Excluding Australia, DL operates just one route from LAX, SFO, SEA, NRT, ATL, SLC and MSP transpac, and all just to NRT. Only DTW has multiple non-stop routes, but only to NRT, NGO and PVG.

On the other hand, UA operates:
- SFO to PEK, PVG, ICN, NRT, KIX, and HKG.
- LAX to NRT
- ORD to PEK, PVG, NRT and HKG
- SEA to NRT
- IAD to PEK, NRT

And CO would add:
- EWR to PEK, PVG, NRT and HKG
- IAH to NRT

So UA do need CO to complete its domination of the non-stop transpac sector from all key markets relevant to Asians. DL can only dream of matching that domination from their NRT hub, but it is laughable if they think Asians consider their one-stop routes to the US as a major incentive over the non-stop options available.

[Edited 2010-04-25 13:59:20]


It's huaiwei...not huawei. I have nothing to do with the PRC! :)
User currently offlinepeanuts From Netherlands, joined Dec 2009, 1442 posts, RR: 4
Reply 23, posted (4 years 6 months 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 4196 times:

Quoting huaiwei (Reply 22):
You said it yourself. "Traditional Asia gateways". Those gateways are not "traditional" by chance, and I do not think it necessary to actually explain to you why LAX, SFO, SEA or NYC are more likely able to sustain transpac services than ATL, SLC, MSP or DTW.

Your statement clearly demonstrates your lack of knowledge about a legitimate "hub and spoke" network.
Also, it's not all about the "Asians". Besides, aren't Asians "too good" to fly american carriers anyway???
If we have to believe any of your anti DL tripe, DL may as well pack up.

I'm glad UA/CO got a new fanboy in their midst.  

Back on topic:
UA and CO will basically rightsize many markets with equipment that becomes available due to a merger.

[Edited 2010-04-25 15:44:48]


Question Conventional Wisdom. While not all commonly held beliefs are wrong…all should be questioned.
User currently offlinemcdu From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 1473 posts, RR: 17
Reply 24, posted (4 years 6 months 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 4044 times:

Quoting peanuts (Reply 23):
Your statement clearly demonstrates your lack of knowledge about a legitimate "hub and spoke" network.

And your lack of knowledge of the need to have O&D traffic instead of just connecting traffic....


25 peanuts : Mmm...You may want to think your thoughts through before you comment. I was referring to a "legitimate hub and spoke" network. That obviously INCLUDE
26 OlympicATH : You are totally right, my bad. Daily up to September 10, then 5 weekly and down to 3 weekly for the winter. United codeshares on the route too. With
27 CALPSAFltSkeds : Well, according to airfleets.net, UA has 8 744s stored. They are 1992 to 1997 builds. Additionally, UA flies some 763ERs on hub to hub domestic servi
28 C010T3 : Yes, actually EWR-GIG would have to be an immediate addition in order to put use to UA's dormant IAD-GIG frequencies before another airline tries to
29 Cubsrule : Those frequencies are not GIG-specific, though, right?
30 C010T3 : Yes, but that's the route to Brazil with most potential for a combined UA/CO IMHO, not to mention the possibility of the end of the GIG tag from IAD.
31 Cubsrule : Not sure I agree. I think IAD-GIG is gone regardless, and with EWR-GRU, I'm not sure IAD-GRU sticks around either (IAD-EZE is also an interesting que
32 C010T3 : Why wouldn't it? It's an established route flown for years. Play with them how? CO/UA would serve Brazil from all their major Eastern hubs EWR, IAD,
33 DeltaMD90 : That's what connections are for. ...
34 Cubsrule : It serves the same connecting flows as EWR-GRU. I don't think they need both daily, and with competition to NYC, it makes more sense to fly EWR daily
35 C010T3 : So, basically, UA/CO should retreat and shrink in the Brazilian market? Yes, but how does that help UA/CO flyers outside New York?
36 Cubsrule : You are putting words in my mouth. I wonder whether there are better opportunities than lots of GIG service. We seemingly agree that 21/week to GIG i
37 C010T3 : No, I'm just concluding that from the fact that you are of the opinion that well established IAD service should be downsized. How is an additional da
38 Cubsrule : For most points south/west of EWR, the difference in distance is not material - going through IAH may even be faster given how congested and delay-pr
39 C010T3 : That's only true if you only consider connections with 3-hour layovers at EWR and if most points south/west of EWR had as dense schedules to IAH as t
40 Post contains links ManuCH : There is now an official thread to discuss this. Please continue discussion there: Possible UA/CO Merger: Impact On Fleets & Routes (by Moderators
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