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AA Merger Inevitable?  
User currently offlineBalZ18 From United States of America, joined Oct 2008, 143 posts, RR: 0
Posted (4 years 4 months 3 weeks 17 hours ago) and read 26261 times:

Alright everyone I figured its time to get this one going as well... First NW and DL becoming DL... Now CO and UA becoming UA... So now here's the question... What is AA to do about this? It seems to me that sitting back and doing nothing would be financial suicide. Is the deal with JetBlue insight into the future? Or will a merger between US and AA be more likely? I'm at a loss everybody so let the ideas fly, lets hear possible conclusions for the future of AA.

Cheers,
Z18


First class or no class...
129 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlinePanHAM From Germany, joined May 2005, 9387 posts, RR: 29
Reply 1, posted (4 years 4 months 3 weeks 17 hours ago) and read 26211 times:

The airline industry in the USA is going down the hill like rail passenger services in the 60s. Jump the question, ask when AmAir will happen.

Loss plus loss does not make profit, compared to the service levels fast food is haute cuisine and TSA does not help to make things better. Before the american tax payer ends up with a national airline needing a couple of billions each year, someone should ask for a new deck of cards.



E's passed on! That parrot is no more! He has ceased to be! E's expired and gone to meet 'is maker!
User currently offlineDL WIDGET HEAD From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 2094 posts, RR: 5
Reply 2, posted (4 years 4 months 3 weeks 17 hours ago) and read 26079 times:

Quoting BalZ18 (Thread starter):
What is AA to do about this? It seems to me that sitting back and doing nothing would be financial suicide.

No, but if they don't act soon then others may which could further reduce their prospects.

Quoting BalZ18 (Thread starter):
Or will a merger between US and AA be more likely?

I think an AA/US merger would be murder-suicide. The best and most logical merger partner for AA at this time is B6 and/or FL IMHO.

[Edited 2010-05-03 06:52:00]

User currently offlineua777222 From United States of America, joined Dec 2003, 3348 posts, RR: 11
Reply 3, posted (4 years 4 months 3 weeks 17 hours ago) and read 26041 times:

Merging would be too reactionary. AA has a lock on the Caribbean, East Coast, and the UK from the US. US Airways won't happen as their too reliant (IMO) on Star (a condition with AA that would have to go) for feeder traffic. Right now, there isn't anyone out there that would be suitable if you ask me.

With the new UA and DL in place, the playing field is only leveled for AA. Now they need to put up or shut up.



"It wasn't raining when Noah built the ark."
User currently offlineRAFVC10 From Spain, joined Sep 2005, 1980 posts, RR: 6
Reply 4, posted (4 years 4 months 3 weeks 17 hours ago) and read 25984 times:
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And what about a three band AA-BA-IB merged airlines?

Regards,

Gerard



El dia que los gilipollas vuelen, no podremos ver la luz del sol!
User currently offlineOzarkD9S From United States of America, joined Oct 2001, 5111 posts, RR: 21
Reply 5, posted (4 years 4 months 3 weeks 16 hours ago) and read 25842 times:

Quoting RAFVC10 (Reply 4):


And what about a three band AA-BA-IB merged airlines?

Not gonna happen unless the USA joins the EU. AA needs to get their open labor contracts settled before they venture into the merger arena. An AA/US shotgun marriage may be in the cards, but PHX would be yielded to WN in a heartbeat. Personally, I think AA would rather be a profitable #3 (if and when profits return) then a money losing #1.



Next Up: STL-LGA-RIC-ATL-STL
User currently offlinePanHAM From Germany, joined May 2005, 9387 posts, RR: 29
Reply 6, posted (4 years 4 months 3 weeks 16 hours ago) and read 25844 times:

Quoting DL WIDGET HEAD (Reply 2):
he best and most logical merger partner for AA at this time is B6 and/or FL IMHO.

both would be purchases rather than mergers. They'd end up like Reno Air or AirCal or whatever else AA has gobbled up down the road. Even the much larger TWA was not a merger and not much is left of that one either.



E's passed on! That parrot is no more! He has ceased to be! E's expired and gone to meet 'is maker!
User currently offlinefaucett From Peru, joined Jul 2009, 58 posts, RR: 0
Reply 7, posted (4 years 4 months 3 weeks 16 hours ago) and read 25789 times:

Quoting PanHAM (Reply 1):
The airline industry in the USA is going down the hill like rail passenger services in the 60s. Jump the question, ask when AmAir will happen.

It seems to be a worldwide phenomenom, not jut an American one. Just see AF-KL, AV-TA and probably IB-BA. I wonder if in the end 10 airlines will conquer the world.....



faucett
User currently offlineDFWEagle From United States of America, joined Dec 2006, 1071 posts, RR: 9
Reply 8, posted (4 years 4 months 3 weeks 16 hours ago) and read 25599 times:

I personally doubt that AA will merge with any other carrier. A acquisition is possibly more likely, but I still doubt it will happen. I would say that AA’s top three options would be US Airways, jetBlue and Alaska Airlines.

What I think would be the best option now would be to work at recruiting US Airways to the oneworld alliance, rather than merging with them. AA could offer to apply to have US added to the oneworld Atlantic antitrust immunity, which would be very attractive to them. Trans-Atlantic travel has consolidated into the three alliances and US Airways cannot really afford to be lone player for the long term. I think Star sent a clear message to US when they left them out of the Star multi-carrier antitrust immunity. As part of the oneworld joint venture, US would gain more access to Heathrow and surely be successful with BA co-operation and feed. Philadelphia would provide a true East coast European gateway hub for oneworld, with connections to smaller Eastern markets that JFK still lacks, in its position as a mostly O/D gateway.



Ryan / HKG
User currently offlineJacobin777 From United States of America, joined Sep 2004, 14968 posts, RR: 59
Reply 9, posted (4 years 4 months 3 weeks 16 hours ago) and read 25590 times:

Quoting DFWEagle (Reply 8):
What I think would be the best option now would be to work at recruiting US Airways to the oneworld alliance, rather than merging with them. AA could offer to apply to have US added to the oneworld Atlantic antitrust immunity, which would be very attractive to them. Trans-Atlantic travel has consolidated into the three alliances and US Airways cannot really afford to be lone player for the long term. I think Star sent a clear message to US when they left them out of the Star multi-carrier antitrust immunity. As part of the oneworld joint venture, US would gain more access to Heathrow and surely be successful with BA co-operation and feed. Philadelphia would provide a true East coast European gateway hub for oneworld, with connections to smaller Eastern markets that JFK still lacks, in its position as a mostly O/D gateway.

  ...I think AA would be best getting both US and possibly B6 into OneWorld (though B6 I think would be tougher-dont forget, LH has a board seat on B6-not that it would mean too much if B6 was "hell bent" on joining an opposing alliance).

US would PHL and CLT to the mix as well. FWIW, US is still a strong player in the TATL market.



"Up the Irons!"
User currently offlinecontrails From United States of America, joined Oct 2000, 1833 posts, RR: 0
Reply 10, posted (4 years 4 months 3 weeks 16 hours ago) and read 25535 times:

Quoting PanHAM (Reply 1):
The airline industry in the USA is going down the hill like rail passenger services in the 60s. Jump the question, ask when AmAir will happen.

Correct!!! It's going down hill and it's taking the express elevator.

I've been predicting Congress will federalize the industry some day, and it's probably not too far away. If you think you we have problems in the industry now just wait - you haven't seen anything yet.



Flying Colors Forever!
User currently offlineseabosdca From United States of America, joined Sep 2007, 5467 posts, RR: 6
Reply 11, posted (4 years 4 months 3 weeks 16 hours ago) and read 25511 times:

Quoting PanHAM (Reply 1):
The airline industry in the USA is going down the hill like rail passenger services in the 60s. Jump the question, ask when AmAir will happen.

Loss plus loss does not make profit

It can if you cut off the lowest-yielding parts of the system. Reduce capacity and fleet size while continuing to serve all of your most lucrative customers.

Even Amtrak would lose a lot less money if it could dump all of its wasteful, expensive service without causing a political uproar.


User currently offlinefxramper From United States of America, joined Dec 2005, 7298 posts, RR: 85
Reply 12, posted (4 years 4 months 3 weeks 15 hours ago) and read 25262 times:
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More likely to see new airlines into One World before a merger or acquisition by AA.   

Quoting BalZ18 (Thread starter):
It seems to me that sitting back and doing nothing would be financial suicide

Agreed.

Quoting ua777222 (Reply 3):
Merging would be too reactionary. AA has a lock on the Caribbean, East Coast, and the UK from the US

Excellent analysis.


User currently offlineYYZRWY23 From Canada, joined Aug 2009, 561 posts, RR: 0
Reply 13, posted (4 years 4 months 3 weeks 15 hours ago) and read 25134 times:

Quoting BalZ18 (Thread starter):
Is the deal with JetBlue insight into the future?

I don't know if this would have an effect, but doesn't LH own 25% of Jet Blue? I don't know if this could not allow a merger due to LH being in STAR. Just a point I thought I would toss in here.

Quoting DL WIDGET HEAD (Reply 2):
an AA/US merger would be murder-suicide.

The labor problems alone would kill it. US is still not over its first merger (labor wise) , how could they go through another? And last I heard, the union for th AA FA's was hollering strike, but I could be behind.

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 9):
LH has a board seat on B6

  

Quoting faucett (Reply 7):
I wonder if in the end 10 airlines will conquer the world.....

I wouldn't be too surprised if this is how everything turns out. Eventually the industry will consolidate to the most profitable point and stagnate. Hopefully this situation is what would bring stability to a consistently volatile industry.

Quoting contrails (Reply 10):
I've been predicting Congress will federalize the industry some day

PLEASE DON'T!!!!! By federalize, do you mean nationalize (as in they buy the industry and regulate it), or just bring back heavy regulation? Obama owns enough.......leave the airlines out of it.

YYZRWY23



If you don't stand behind our troops, feel free to stand in front of them.
User currently offlineLHCVG From United States of America, joined May 2009, 1577 posts, RR: 2
Reply 14, posted (4 years 4 months 3 weeks 15 hours ago) and read 24706 times:

Quoting ua777222 (Reply 3):
Merging would be too reactionary. AA has a lock on the Caribbean, East Coast, and the UK from the US. US Airways won't happen as their too reliant (IMO) on Star (a condition with AA that would have to go) for feeder traffic. Right now, there isn't anyone out there that would be suitable if you ask me.

It is going to be interesting to see what AA chooses here, because there really isn't a logical merger partner like CO-UA and NW-DL. AS, US, B6, FL, etc. all COULD work (some more than others), but there doesn't seem to be one that comes without any issues.

Quoting OzarkD9S (Reply 5):
Personally, I think AA would rather be a profitable #3 (if and when profits return) then a money losing #1.

Not sure if this will actually come to pass but it seems like the smart play right now -- no sense in joining merger mania just for the sake of it. See where things fall, and then make strategic moves down the road if need be. My assumption here is that US being the cluster you-know-what that it is will not be gobbling up the "good" LCCs like B6, FL, WN or the loners like AS or G4, so AA will still have soon roome to maneuver.

Quoting YYZRWY23 (Reply 13):
Obama owns enough.......leave the airlines out of it.

Sorry for getting political, but we really need to stop this silliness. Obama doesn't "own" anything, nor is he a socialist/communist/fascist/Muslim/Kenyan/etc. I completely respect your opinion that government should have a light hand, and your right to express it, but let's please dispense with the outright BS.


User currently offlineLAXdude1023 From India, joined Sep 2006, 7616 posts, RR: 24
Reply 15, posted (4 years 4 months 3 weeks 15 hours ago) and read 24705 times:

The best thing AA can do is get itself in order and sit this one out.

AA has too many problems to worry about merging.



Stewed...Lewd...Crude...Irreverent...Belligerent
User currently offlineckfred From United States of America, joined Apr 2001, 5238 posts, RR: 1
Reply 16, posted (4 years 4 months 3 weeks 14 hours ago) and read 24462 times:

Quoting PanHAM (Reply 1):
The airline industry in the USA is going down the hill like rail passenger services in the 60s. Jump the question, ask when AmAir will happen.

Loss plus loss does not make profit, compared to the service levels fast food is haute cuisine and TSA does not help to make things better. Before the american tax payer ends up with a national airline needing a couple of billions each year, someone should ask for a new deck of cards.

Airline service in the U.S. isn't going to be nationalized. Airlines are their own worst enemies, because they don't behave like other industries which continue to improve their product.

Remember that three things killed rail service in the U.S. First, airplanes. Why spend 3 days and 2 nights going from Chicago to San Fran or L.A., when SFO and LAX are 4 hours from ORD by jet?

Second, interstate highways. Why take the train to the St. Louis from Chicago, when you can drive on Interstate 55 with no stop light?

Third, government regulation. The ICC regulated fares based solely on mileage, and even getting rid of stops, let alone dropping a train was a long, complicated process. Rail service was thought of as a right of the traveling public by the ICC, and it didn't look kindly on railroads wanting to take away the public's right to travel by rail.

Obviously, the government is leaning towards a belief that air travelers have a right to a certain level of service, but it isn't about to go back to dictating fares and routes.

Considering that many Americans feel that the government should get out of the business of delivering mail and leave that job to the likes of FedEx and UPS, no one is about to go for creating a federal air carrier.


User currently offlinemah4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 32789 posts, RR: 72
Reply 17, posted (4 years 4 months 3 weeks 14 hours ago) and read 24290 times:

AA doesn't need to merge, but in order to remain competitive it will have no choice but to use its own metal to start expanding into new markets. Among the Big 3, it will be the only one not flying to the Middle East and Africa and it will serve the fewest destinations in Asia and Europe. That's not acceptable and it will not remain competitive without creating a larger network.


a.
User currently offlineaa1818 From Trinidad and Tobago, joined Feb 2006, 3435 posts, RR: 4
Reply 18, posted (4 years 4 months 3 weeks 14 hours ago) and read 24117 times:

I think AA can compete in its present state. MIA and DFW face no real threat. AA is dominant and effective enough to ward off any threat of competition. The alliance to be forged with B6 will strengthen its New york position and enable it to compete against DL at JFK/ LGA and UA (CO) at EWR. AA already effectively competes in ORD against UA and the one weak area in its network is West Coast. Hopefully that's where an even deeper partnership with AS comes in. As for internationally, the Caribbean, Central and South America are strong for AA. LHR will continue to provide a healthy international base for connections with a very dominant partner there. Alliances with IB, AY, MA, IT, JL and RJ will hopefully begin to breathe new life into AA as it realizes that it has sat on its laurels for too long and now needs to re-evaluate its growth strategy particularly with regard to its international route network.

AA1818



“The moment you doubt whether you can fly, you cease for ever to be able to do it.” J.M. Barrie (Peter Pan)
User currently offlineLAXdude1023 From India, joined Sep 2006, 7616 posts, RR: 24
Reply 19, posted (4 years 4 months 3 weeks 13 hours ago) and read 24056 times:

Any word on when we we get the final go-ahead on the ATI ventures with BA/IB and JL?


Stewed...Lewd...Crude...Irreverent...Belligerent
User currently offlineKPDX From United States of America, joined Dec 2005, 2752 posts, RR: 2
Reply 20, posted (4 years 4 months 3 weeks 13 hours ago) and read 23988 times:

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 15):
The best thing AA can do is get itself in order and sit this one out.

AA has too many problems to worry about merging.

  

Yep, I bet these merger airlines will fail before AA does.



View my aviation videos on Youtube by searching for zildjiandrummr12
User currently offlinejustplanenutz From United States of America, joined Feb 2006, 525 posts, RR: 1
Reply 21, posted (4 years 4 months 3 weeks 13 hours ago) and read 23791 times:

Quoting YYZRWY23 (Reply 13):
I don't know if this would have an effect, but doesn't LH own 25% of Jet Blue? I don't know if this could not allow a merger due to LH being in STAR. Just a point I thought I would toss in here.

I've wondered the same thing. Could DOJ/DOT require LH to divest their stake in B6 as condition for the merger/ATI? That could open the door to a deeper OW/AA relationship.

Quoting DL WIDGET HEAD (Reply 2):
I think an AA/US merger would be murder-suicide
Quoting YYZRWY23 (Reply 13):
The labor problems alone would kill it.

Here's a thought: US has about 5,000 pilots, of which 2,000 are US West. AA has about 2,000 pilots on furlough, and wouldn't operate all of the current US after a merger. Could you kill 2 birds with one stone? AA makes peace with APA by recalling all of its furloughed pilots to operate current US assets and US just cans US East (pilots not routes)?

It may be too late to undo the pilot groups at US, but that is the only way I could imaging AA/US working.


User currently offlineFlyCaledonian From United Kingdom, joined Dec 2003, 2090 posts, RR: 3
Reply 22, posted (4 years 4 months 3 weeks 13 hours ago) and read 23755 times:

Well the CO/UA deal will take a little time to work through. Clues to how quickly they want to progress outside of the formal merger will emerge over the next few months, e.g. UA aircraft emerging in base CO colours at repaint (but keeping the existing UA branding and a tulip on the blue tail).

In terms of AA, I doubt it wants to go down the merger route at the moment. Getting its ATI deals sorted out seems to be a bigger priority at the moment. Once the AA/BA/IB deal gets final approval there will be a lot of work over the next 10-12 months to finalise route and schedule changes, right-sizing equipment and operations, etc. Diving into a shotgun merger with someone else would be foolhardy at this stage.

In part what happens with AA will depend on the US reaction to this. Having being spurned by UA in the merger stakes they are now very much the outsider in Star across the Atlantic. Might they make overtures to oneworld where the PHL hub, as others have mentioned here, could be a valuable East Coast hub (JFK being much more O&D orientated), plus CLT would open up the South East. US might be happy to sacrifice LHR-PHL in favour of LHR-CLT (given that BA could continue with a twice daily LHR-PHL service).

Of course US linking up with BA/AA would be rather odd after all these years, given that the original BA/US relationship broke down in 1997 over the proposed AA/BA link-up - that we're likely to see finally active in 2011!



Let's Go British Caledonian!
User currently offlineANstar From United Kingdom, joined Nov 2003, 5244 posts, RR: 6
Reply 23, posted (4 years 4 months 3 weeks 13 hours ago) and read 23641 times:

Why do AA have to merge?

Given NW has gone and CO will soon be gone, doesnt that enhance AA's position?


User currently offlineLipeGIG From Brazil, joined May 2005, 11438 posts, RR: 58
Reply 24, posted (4 years 4 months 3 weeks 13 hours ago) and read 23592 times:
AIRLINERS.NET CREW
FORUM MODERATOR

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 17):
AA doesn't need to merge, but in order to remain competitive it will have no choice but to use its own metal to start expanding into new markets. Among the Big 3, it will be the only one not flying to the Middle East and Africa and it will serve the fewest destinations in Asia and Europe. That's not acceptable and it will not remain competitive without creating a larger network.

Fully agree. There's no need for AA to merge because nothing available will offer what they need (increased network in Europe and Asia plus Middle East and African flights). AA does not need more domestic services, it needs long haul.



New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
25 par13del : Only one large carrier exist for AA to merge with which will create synergies on a similar scale to the UA/CO and DL/NW, and I am not sure the US regu
26 Post contains images realsim : Domestic coverage at 500nm from each airline hubs: The new UA+CO: CLE is going to have a hard time... DL: AA: Now, if AA decides to merge or adquire s
27 seabosdca : AA would hemorrhage money trying to operate anything remotely resembling WN's network.
28 jfk777 : AA has nice and growing operations to Asia from Chicago if it can get Peking organized. They already fly to Shanghai, New Dehli and Tokyo from ORD. D
29 par13del : If they merged to make the bottom line look good that would be true, as I said, I believe that is the reason for most mergers. In my scenario, why me
30 Jamake1 : AA doesn't need any more U.S. hubs. What they need is scale and scope to compete with DL and the combined CO-UA. Hence, they need a much broader prese
31 Airport : I do not envision anything like a merger taking place, but why doesn't AA try and pursue a codeshare with F9? It gives them codeshare access to a soli
32 FlyWhisperjets : Why would AA have to merge? They have a good route structure, loyal customers and if I'm not mistaken, they were the only US legacy carrier that avoid
33 planemaker : Will NEVER happen! You can't basically improve a Y seat which is the bulk of their "product"... and the bulk of their service is route and and schedu
34 sccutler : I am no big AA apologist, but I think this business of claiming AA did a bad job when they "merged" with TWA is pure silliness. First off, they did no
35 USAirALB : Remember, US has just expanded their contract with *A until 2015 or 2016.
36 kl911 : Haha, never gonna happen. Can you explain to the US taxpayer why they should pay for an aviation system from the last century that is so rotten that
37 Flaps : Bigger, at least in this industry has not proven to be better. Given the enormous task and associated costs of combining two carriers I am of the opin
38 kl911 : They should, they are 14 billion in debt......
39 nclmedic : I must say I agree with the general gist of the discussion here - AA has far too many problems in house before it starts going shopping. And slapping
40 SlcDeltaRUmd11 : AA mergers have gone so horribly in the past i really doubt its a do or die scenario for them. AA has alot of issues right now to handle on their own
41 AAJFKSJUBKLYN : Why are airline fundamentals/power ALWAYS relayed back to a HUB operation. In all honesty, the concept of HUB is like a muscle head macho. Who cares?
42 AirNZ : I don't quite see where AA "has a lock" on the UK. Relative to what? Is that thus advocating that only certain people would be 'permitted' to fly, an
43 LAXdude1023 : Any particular reason why? DFW is one of the very few bright spots for AA (along with MIA and ORD's international network).
44 AirCalSNA : I don't see the UA/CO merger as a sign of things going downhill in US aviation ... if anything it's a sign that things are going uphill. The legacies
45 A388 : My thoughts as well. DL and NW combined made a stronger airline in Europe and Asia, UA and CO will also create a stronger airline in Europe and Asia.
46 comairguycvg : Yeah...the paint scheme of an airline determines exactly how well the company operates. Good one.
47 kl911 : Well, they just tried to marry JAL, which is rightnow not gonna work well with all the cuts they will have to make.
48 JACK02116 : Remember that the next stage of "OPEN SKIES" will allow European airlines to fly point to point within USA. So competition from the big European Airli
49 AirCalSNA : Except that it will never happen.
50 ceray : Not that I can see. AA is strong, and is and will continue to be a competitor and innovator. USAirways was cursed at the outset with their previous me
51 Post contains images Macsog6 : My prediction ~ - AA does not merge but does expand the route network. Market share increases somewhat as they pick up disgruntled NW and CO pax. - US
52 IADLHR : I have long felt that if a merger of UA/CO was announced that AA would start to scream, yell and stopme their feet that the foreign ownership levels,
53 seabosdca : I think you're right about the expansion. Market share won't increase from "disgruntled NW and CO pax" -- they have very few hubs or big routes in co
54 DFWEagle : Here is Arpey's letter to employees today regarding the UA/CO merger and the impact it will have on the industry and on American. [Edited 2010-05-03 1
55 JayBird : American, with the exception of Trans Caribbean Airlines, doesn't have a good merger track record. With TCA they've not only kept the routes, but expa
56 GlobalCabotage : Let AA clean up the house before taking on another challenge.
57 Commavia : I agree that this is obviously more about revenue than cost. After all, when it comes to labor costs at least, they can basically only go up with this
58 ckfred : I saw an analyst on CNBC who said that AA has 2 choices, bankruptcy or merge with US, while US has 2 choices, merge with AA or go out of business. The
59 Post contains images LAXdude1023 : If only you were running AA.
60 Post contains images viaggiare : Here's mine: UA/CO will eventually buy AA, and DL will grab US. In the end WN will win —as will B6 and FL— by expanding service to cities that be
61 AirCalSNA : AA could definitely stand to increase its presence on the west coast, which is ironic after it swallowed two premier west coast carriers.
62 LAXdude1023 : If the option is Chapter 11 or mergeing with US, I say go chapter 11. Mergeing with US solves nothing and would eventually bring the company to the v
63 727lover : REALLY? How does one get from SAV to BDL? ORK to PIT? CHS to SDF? How much domestic to domestic traffic runs through MIA? I can't imagine it's a lot.
64 Post contains images realsim : I love your analysis and ideas about what AA should do, and I agree with all of them. Just two notes: can AA grow at LAX with their current terminal?
65 Commavia : Yes. Really. AA need not be competitive in every city-pair market. The more the better, of course, but the key for AA should be building sustainable
66 seabosdca : That would be a great airline by the time you are done. But I don't know where you're going to find the capital for it. It looks to me like you need,
67 Commavia : Yes, T4 still has some room for growth. Not much, but some. Plus, with Eagle now moving to its new box, they can handle more flying. And, finally, wh
68 Commavia : AA has more than enough cash to do most of it right now, today, as it is. They have just been incredibly conservative with that cash because they're f
69 mah4546 : All talk, no action. It is absolutely true that the costs of the other airlines will begin to catch up with AA and the playing field will "level," bu
70 PC12Fan : God help the one they do. Signed, Reno and TWA.
71 KingFriday013 : I think that you are essentially right. Either they would operate a joint venture (similar to AF-KL in Europe) or be swallowed up into American. They
72 airbazar : How quickly do we forget. AA was the first when it merged with TWA to form at the time the largest airline in the World. I think the AA-BA anti-trust
73 USAirALB : Before they fly mainline to PVD, they have to bring back Eagle first! Eagle will return to ALB/PVD. Agreed. Except for SJC. I see AA operating PIT,DT
74 Post contains images Jacobin777 : Unfortunately, I don't think AA will go for any -200LR's. I expect QF to start SYD-DFW or SYD-AKL-DFW with B787's. DFW-HKG will probably be with CX w
75 Commavia : I am confident that PVD could support a daily 737 to MIA right now, today, as it is, regardless of any Eagle flying from PVD to anywhere else. They w
76 Post contains images Commavia : Trouble is that, looking within AA today, there isn't really anyone who I think is capable and qualified to "hand the duty off" to. True, AMR could g
77 USAirALB : Sure. As can ALB. I think that before they start ALB/PVD-MIA, they will fly ALB/PVD-ORD on Eagle first. As I said above, AA will return to ALB/PVD in
78 Post contains images Jacobin777 : Nothing wrong with bringing in someone from the "outside". Bring back Robert Crandall .....loathed but feared and respected... Interesting... SJC-NRT
79 seabosdca : SYD-DFW nonstop is not going to happen economically on any 787 yet announced. What would be the point of SYD-AKL-DFW? Would it really have any advant
80 Post contains links Commavia : I think a daily 767 could work - and the local SJC business/tech community would probably support it. After the tech bubble burst, 9/11, Iraq, oil, e
81 OneSkyJet : For those of you speculating that AA will merge with either B6 or FL, think again. Most of B6s and FL's route structures work because of their lower c
82 Jacobin777 : QF was already going to do SYD-AKL-DFW with a B744 back in 2002/2003 before the SARS epidemic. Besides their B744ER and A388, QF doesn't at this pres
83 mah4546 : There is absolutely a market from SJC to Tokyo, especially beyond traffic from Narita to points in Taiwan and Southeast Asia. Good 763 market that AT
84 AAFLT1871 : Yes and no. The 9 times I have flown that route in the past 2 years, with the latest being March 5th and March 12th of this year, the plane carries q
85 alwaysontherun : I´m tempted to say that that is true. My flight from MIA to GYE was delayed due to the 767 going tech at the gate (21-04-10). Granted, it took AA a
86 FutureUScapt : AA is not going to take on a well-established incumbent in what is still not a large market by transatlantic standards. Add to the fact that US will
87 USAirALB : Nah, CVG-AMS operated with a 757 and that route is over 4000 mi. CLT-LHR is about 3900 miles. CO flies EWR-TXL with a 75, which is about 3980 mi.
88 mah4546 : The "real" spare widebody capacity is doing troop carrier duty for the U.S. government through September. AA has the equivalent of five unused 777s r
89 USAirALB : Fine. Also, I think if anything were to happen, and US were to enter OW. LH would either keep MUC or switch to FRA, and BA would re-enter CLT(maybe)
90 USAirALB : Hmmmm....... DXB?
91 Commavia : ? The 787 would be the perfect plane for that route. Frankly, a 77L would do it well, I think. I'll take DXB, or HKG. Both make so much sense it hurt
92 Jacobin777 : Given the EY ORD-AUH codesharing connection, I would say HKG has a better chance. Of course, AUH isn't DXB and I know many (myself included) who woul
93 mah4546 : I wish I knew or even had the slightest clue, but those would be my two hunches as well. But both make far too much sense, you're right. I also heard
94 FutureUScapt : There is actually decent local demand from CLT-FRA, though I still would argue that the only way LH would continue flying it (assuming US left *A, th
95 Commavia : Why would AA fly to markets in Southeast Asia when JAL can just do it with their own aircraft now?
96 mah4546 : I, for one, believe that there is value in the brand and the product and AA needs to take itself more globally, in particular Bangkok and Singapore.
97 crAAzy : One thing to consider that I have yet to hear about is the impact the threat of a potential AA/US merger would have on the merger midset of AS. Wouldn
98 gemuser : It makes NO sence for AA to return to the SW Pacific. QF does it for them, at no captial cost and QF can devote much more management time and effort
99 seabosdca : 7500+ nm in still air? On a plane that will probably do 5800 or so at MZFW? I'm skeptical, to say the least. The A380 would be a bit better but I thi
100 caljn : Really. What does he own? You get Fox up in Canada?
101 Commavia : I think AA can get away with not flying to BKK and SIN with their own metal. They need to be in NRT, ICN, PEK, PVG, and HKG, plus maybe KIX and NGO,
102 gemuser : I totally agree. The only caveat that MIGHT cause problems is the effect on LAX, but I think that can be overcome. Gemuser
103 Jacobin777 : Well had it not been for SARS it was going to happen. QF management feels something is there....but I felt the route would have had too many availabl
104 cws818 : I am not so sure. After all, AA is AA, with strong positions in DFW, ORD, NYC, MIA, LAX, and significant presence in WAS, BOS, SFO, STL, among others
105 ckfred : Commavia, Your analysis of what AA has going for it right now and what it could do in the future makes far more sense than what the analysts say about
106 brilondon : I could not agree more with your statement. In fact the US airline industry is going down hill faster the the high speed trains that are rumoured to
107 Rbgso : Agreed. There is no urgent need for AA to do anything at the moment except get its operations under control and somehow get some type of labor peace.
108 skyliner747 : as a former TWA flight attendant, I can assure you, AA's goal was never to provide jobs to the hard-working and dedicated TWA people. Regardless of t
109 Post contains images beechnut : So is UA/CO going to be the Penn Central of the airline industry? Beech
110 ckfred : Remember when airlines used to own hotel chains? UA owned Western International, now Westin. TWA owned Hilton International (Hilton Hotels outside of
111 JAL : The question is not when but who AA would merge with? US Air?
112 AAFLT1871 : Again AA does not need to merge with anyone to remain competitve with UA or DL, they need to get their own house in order, expand into Asia and the M
113 DTWPurserBoy : By all accounts the DL/NW merger has been a success. Significant synergies have been realized by eliminating redundant real estate and other assets so
114 ckfred : AA doesn't "decimate" carriers that it acquires. Yes, after buying Air Cal, the SJC hub disappeared in the early 90s. Blame that on WN's decision to
115 Post contains images Commavia : There are aspects of USAirways that would hold value for AA. The Shuttle, the Reagan and (possibly) LaGuardia slots, potentially the Charlotte hub, a
116 Seatback : Even with US, AA wouldn't be the biggest, would they?
117 LDVAviation : AA/US would become the largest domestic airline with something like 21 to 22% market share. Not sure if that would be enough to make them the biggest
118 realsim : In terms of fleet size, without any doubt. AA/US would account near 1000 mailine aircraft, while DL is at ~750 and the new UA at ~700.
119 Post contains links LDVAviation : I would prefer for AA to go it alone. There's still a lot of untapped potential in what they've got. In fact, the more I think about this merger busi
120 Post contains images USAirALB : I think they would try to stick it out. They have a kinda have a little following hear in CLT, and they make EU connections 1000x easier. I can tell
121 chepos : AA and US will not be merging, AA has already said they will sit this one out. Regards, Chepos
122 ml86 : Commavia: You've offered a very lucid and well constructed analysis. I fully agree with your logic. AA has tremendous room for optimization and enhanc
123 Mortyman : How about AA + AS + HA ?
124 sccutler : On reflection, I was a little "sunshine and roses" there, wasn't I? It could have worked out, but AA did make sure that they did not take on too much
125 etops1 : AA and US will not be merging, AA has already said they will sit this one out. Regards, Chepo Chepos. AA puede resar el Rosario completo but that does
126 PM : https://councils.glgroup.com/news/Analyses.mvc/Details/48266 Here's an interesting piece of writing. "A merger of AA and US provides one path that can
127 RIPCORDD : Don't blame AA for shutting down STL is TWA did a good job they would have never been a target of a take over without AA you would have not had a job
128 jfk777 : TWA was a great airline and I enjoyed flying their Ambassador Class to Europe on 747 many times in teh 1980's. TWA's modern seminal moment came in 19
129 contrails : I've heard that before. Not too long ago people were saying that nationalized health care would never happen. I don't believe Congress will allow our
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