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Who Is Going To Buy Alaska?  
User currently offlinebahadir From United States of America, joined Oct 2001, 1834 posts, RR: 10
Posted (4 years 7 months 3 weeks 16 hours ago) and read 15378 times:

With all these mergers, Alaska looks like a perfect merger/take over candidate. What do you think is going to happen to Alaska? Buyout by AA? Merge with Frontier? Buy out by Southwest? Merge with Airtran?


Earthbound misfit I
65 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlinedoug_Or From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 3441 posts, RR: 3
Reply 1, posted (4 years 7 months 3 weeks 16 hours ago) and read 15377 times:

No one. Everytime a merger occurs in the US, someone seems to ask "what about Alaska"? Well, what about Alaska? They are doing fine, they have with plenty of airlines codeshares wihch preclude the need for an actual merger, and they lack much of a real hub to mesh well with a traditional legacy carrier (SEA is driven more by O&D than connections).


When in doubt, one B pump off
User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 31412 posts, RR: 85
Reply 2, posted (4 years 7 months 3 weeks 16 hours ago) and read 15297 times:
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I don't see anyone buying Alaska Air Group, at least in the near term. They serve as the West Coast feeder network for both AA and DL and they've been successful launching select services to their (current and former) partner's hubs (DFW, EWR, etc.).

UA and CO merging is not going to change the equation on the US West Coast, since CO just moved from AS as a partner to United when they left SkyTeam for Star. VX entering the market has probably been somewhat of an annoyance, but AS is still one of the dominant carriers on the West Coast (especially outside of CA) and they have solid service on the ground and in the air.

AS is a different animal from WN so I don't see them merging. Also, AS' focus on larger 737 models runs counter to WN's focus on the smaller models. It's much the same with F9, with the added wrinkle that F9 is an all Airbus "large" narrowbody fleet while AS is an all Boeing fleet.

AS have established a market segment large, strong and stable enough to allow them to continue to operate independently and that is what I see happening.

[Edited 2010-05-03 08:23:00]

User currently offlinetinpusher007 From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 983 posts, RR: 1
Reply 3, posted (4 years 7 months 3 weeks 16 hours ago) and read 15220 times:

DELTA...DUH!!!

Quoting doug_Or (Reply 1):
They are doing fine, they have with plenty of airlines codeshares wihch preclude the need for an actual merger, and they lack much of a real hub to mesh well with a traditional legacy carrier (SEA is driven more by O&D than connections).

I think DL would beg to differ with this statement. AS's hub at SEA would work well feeding DL's trans-pacific flights from there!



"Flying isn't inherently dangerous...but very unforgiving of carelessness, incapacity or neglect."
User currently offlineMrSkyGuy From United States of America, joined Aug 2008, 1214 posts, RR: 3
Reply 4, posted (4 years 7 months 3 weeks 16 hours ago) and read 15186 times:

Quoting Stitch (Reply 3):
Also, AS' focus on larger 737 models runs counter to WN's focus on the smaller models.

While I agree with your other points, I don't think this is too big of a hurdle for SWA's -300/500/700 operation. The -800 is simply a stretched version of the -700, roughly 189 seats in a 1-class layout (depending on seat options).



"The strength of the turbulence is directly proportional to the temperature of your coffee." -- Gunter's 2nd Law of Air
User currently offlinekanban From United States of America, joined Jan 2008, 3858 posts, RR: 27
Reply 5, posted (4 years 7 months 3 weeks 16 hours ago) and read 15108 times:
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why must merger be an answer.. Alaska is unique, profitable leave it alone

User currently offlineTomassjc From United States of America, joined Jan 2010, 903 posts, RR: 2
Reply 6, posted (4 years 7 months 3 weeks 15 hours ago) and read 15032 times:
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Quoting kanban (Reply 6):

why must merger be an answer.. Alaska is unique, profitable leave it alone

Thank you! AS is strong and single and loves to mingle.   



When once you have tasted flight, you will forever walk the Earth with your eyes turned skyward -Leonardo DaVinci
User currently offlinedavescj From United States of America, joined Jun 2007, 2307 posts, RR: 0
Reply 7, posted (4 years 7 months 3 weeks 15 hours ago) and read 14894 times:

Quoting doug_Or (Reply 1):

i agree with this. AS has made a great market for itself code sharing flights to Alaska and up/down the west coast. It is that working with other carriers that has made (and kept) it as independent. They bring lots of legacy traffic to routes where one single carrier wouldn't do well alone.

Dave



Can I have a mojito on this flight?
User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 31412 posts, RR: 85
Reply 8, posted (4 years 7 months 3 weeks 15 hours ago) and read 14693 times:
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Quoting MrSkyGuy (Reply 5):
While I agree with your other points, I don't think this is too big of a hurdle for SWA's -300/500/700 operation. The -800 is simply a stretched version of the -700, roughly 189 seats in a 1-class layout (depending on seat options).

WN prefers the sub-150 seat models because of lower crew costs (no fourth FA) and quicker turnaround time on the ground (less folks and bags to load and unload and less rows to clean and service).


User currently offlineDL WIDGET HEAD From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 2100 posts, RR: 5
Reply 9, posted (4 years 7 months 3 weeks 14 hours ago) and read 14526 times:

It's only a matter of time before AS is merged or taken over. With every passing merger, their independent future becomes less secure. Investors see this too hence the run up in the AS stock price in anticipation of a takeover. I think they will involve themselves in a friendly merger at some point and probably with a major airline who sees the importance of having a SEA hub and a solid west coast presence.

User currently offlineMacsog6 From United States of America, joined Jan 2010, 539 posts, RR: 0
Reply 10, posted (4 years 7 months 3 weeks 14 hours ago) and read 14488 times:
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Quoting kanban (Reply 6):
why must merger be an answer.. Alaska is unique, profitable leave it alone

Mergers take two willing companies ~ and I don't think Alaska Air Group, who owns both AS and QX, is willing. Any combination of AAG with anyone will likely have to be a hostile take-over.



Sixty Plus Years of Flying! "I fly because it releases my mind from the tyranny of petty things." - Saint Ex
User currently offlineAirport From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 11, posted (4 years 7 months 3 weeks 14 hours ago) and read 14409 times:

Quoting tinpusher007 (Reply 4):
AS's hub at SEA would work well feeding DL's trans-pacific flights from there!

AS's hub at SEA already works well at feeding DL's transpacific flights.

Quoting DL WIDGET HEAD (Reply 10):
It's only a matter of time before AS is merged or taken over. With every passing merger, their independent future becomes less secure. Investors see this too hence the run up in the AS stock price in anticipation of a takeover. I think they will involve themselves in a friendly merger at some point and probably with a major airline who sees the importance of having a SEA hub and a solid west coast presence.

Their independent future remains secure because, let's say it all together, they. are. a. profitable. airline. They have NO reason to merge with anyone, and Delta has NO reason to merge with Alaska. They already get tremendous benefits by not merging with them, but keeping a close relationship. They already get massive amounts of feed from Alaska, and vice versa. A merger would be costly. A merger would be messy. And with all that mess, there's not much to gain beyond what they already have. Why meddle with something that plain and simply works? It's illogical, especially when there's so little room for any further benefits.

AS is not merging with anyone. I don't see why that's so hard to believe for some people. They are profitable, they are financially secure, and they are a very expensive carrier to buy. As EA CO AS would put it, why buy the cow when you get the milk for free?

Aye aye aye, I give up...

Cheers!
Anthony/Airport


User currently offlinedl767captain From United States of America, joined Mar 2007, 2539 posts, RR: 0
Reply 12, posted (4 years 7 months 3 weeks 14 hours ago) and read 14348 times:

Quoting tinpusher007 (Reply 4):
DELTA...DUH!!!

I've always thought DL would buy AS at some point, they just seem to fit together.


Alaska Airlines however does fine on its own, they don't need a merger, I think right now they are more worried about competing with Virgin America who is becoming a thorn in their paw right now, and no merger is going to help them in that battle


User currently offlineDocLightning From United States of America, joined Nov 2005, 20336 posts, RR: 59
Reply 13, posted (4 years 7 months 3 weeks 14 hours ago) and read 14204 times:

Quoting bahadir (Thread starter):
Buyout by AA?

How about the opposite?


User currently offlinehatbutton From United States of America, joined Mar 2005, 1500 posts, RR: 14
Reply 14, posted (4 years 7 months 3 weeks 13 hours ago) and read 13859 times:

Again the real reason I think a merger with AS/QX doesn't make sense is costs. If any legacy bought out AS/QX, unless they could maintain AS/QX cost structure (which I don't think they could), then most of the AS/QX system would be rendered unprofitable. Goodbye to a good chunk of the state of Alaska and most west coast markets where they compete with WN.

Also, do you think a merged airline will keep things like free beer/wine on QX? Probably not. You'll lose a lot of passenger loyalty.

I just don't think you'd get all the benefits of AS/QX unless you kept letting them do their own thing. They are attractive takeover targets, but not so attractive once they are merged.


User currently offlineAirframeAS From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 14150 posts, RR: 24
Reply 15, posted (4 years 7 months 3 weeks 13 hours ago) and read 13828 times:

Quoting doug_Or (Reply 1):
No one.

  

Why do we keep getting these theories that AS will be bought out? These threads keep coming almost on a monthly or bi-monthly basis.

Quoting Airport (Reply 11):
AS is not merging with anyone. I don't see why that's so hard to believe for some people. They are profitable, they are financially secure, and they are a very expensive carrier to buy. As EA CO AS would put it, why buy the cow when you get the milk for free?

   AS is doing things that most airlines are not doing. Codesharing as if there was no tomorrow is working out, very, very well for them. Some of the other airlines should take a page out of AS's playbook if they want to be more successful.

Quoting hatbutton (Reply 14):
Also, do you think a merged airline will keep things like free beer/wine on QX? Probably not. You'll lose a lot of passenger loyalty.

  

Get over it folks, ain't gonna happen. Nothing to see here, move on.



A Safe Flight Begins With Quality Maintenance On The Ground.
User currently offlineAS777 From United States of America, joined Nov 2007, 145 posts, RR: 0
Reply 16, posted (4 years 7 months 3 weeks 12 hours ago) and read 13765 times:

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 13):

Hahahahaha. You know, for as much as this topic annoys me(I am an AS fanboy-hence my name) that would be priceless!!!! All these people on here when considering "who is going to buyout AS" never really thought of AS buying anyone out. If they do....I say AA all the way! Then my dream will come true! I get to see an AS777!
 


User currently offlinemhockey31091 From United States of America, joined Apr 2010, 89 posts, RR: 0
Reply 17, posted (4 years 7 months 3 weeks 12 hours ago) and read 13762 times:

AS will not be merged with anyone. They are self reliant and offer services that not very many other airlines do. SEA-FAI is one that I believe only AS offers. I flew that route a ton when I lived in AK and it was very profitable route from what I could tell, they would have tons of cargo and tons of passengers.

User currently offline413X3 From United States of America, joined Jul 2008, 1983 posts, RR: 0
Reply 18, posted (4 years 7 months 3 weeks 12 hours ago) and read 13726 times:

Well I think they should be separate, otherwise Hawaiian and Alaska would make a good combo

User currently offlineseabosdca From United States of America, joined Sep 2007, 5839 posts, RR: 6
Reply 19, posted (4 years 7 months 3 weeks 12 hours ago) and read 13587 times:

Quoting tinpusher007 (Reply 3):
DELTA...DUH!!!

Only if they want to lose a whole lot of money trying to run a network designed around low cost from a legacy cost base.

AS is very useful to both DL and AA. It's much more useful to both in its current state than it would be if either one actually bought it.


User currently offlineCubsrule From United States of America, joined May 2004, 23302 posts, RR: 20
Reply 20, posted (4 years 7 months 3 weeks 12 hours ago) and read 13492 times:

Quoting tinpusher007 (Reply 3):
I think DL would beg to differ with this statement. AS's hub at SEA would work well feeding DL's trans-pacific flights from there!

It does, but DL doesn't need to merge to get that benefit. I see three benefits for any airline in merging with AS:

1) Access to new western markets. Because most AS cities have service to SLC on DL, this isn't a huge benefit, and the SLC hub is competitive for the vast majority of itineraries from these cities - even some to the west coast (GEG-LAX, for instance, is shorter through SLC than through SEA).

2) Access to feed for TPAC flights at SEA, PDX, and/or LAX. Again, there's little or no benefit for DL here, since they already get this feed

3) Access to intra-west coast traffic. This is the only true benefit for DL, but given WN's presence on the west coast, I question how much of a benefit it is.

Quoting MrSkyGuy (Reply 4):
The -800 is simply a stretched version of the -700, roughly 189 seats in a 1-class layout (depending on seat options).

189 is probably a bit high; TZ's sat 175 at IIRC worse pitch than WN has (32 inches versus 33).



I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
User currently offline413X3 From United States of America, joined Jul 2008, 1983 posts, RR: 0
Reply 21, posted (4 years 7 months 3 weeks 12 hours ago) and read 13415 times:

Lets be honest here, companies rarely merge these days because they fit well together, they merge because they want the profits and assets from one airline to look good to their stock holders.

User currently offlinechrisair From United States of America, joined Sep 2000, 2185 posts, RR: 3
Reply 22, posted (4 years 7 months 3 weeks 11 hours ago) and read 13253 times:

Remember folks, AS was/is going to merge with the following airlines: Western, AirCal, Delta, American, United, Southwest, Northwest, Mark Air, Reno Air, Continental, Frontier I, Frontier II, USAir and PSA.

I just hope if a merger occurs, it's not with AA. Their track record on the west coast is horrific, at best. AS is a great niche airline, and I really hope they don't merge with anyone...

Quoting mhockey31091 (Reply 17):
I flew that route a ton when I lived in AK and it was very profitable route from what I could tell

Just a thought...that route is so "profitable" because AS charges an arm, leg, and your first born for it. If you want to fly to FAI from SEA, you have to fly AS...


User currently offlineEA CO AS From United States of America, joined Nov 2001, 13748 posts, RR: 61
Reply 23, posted (4 years 7 months 3 weeks 11 hours ago) and read 13226 times:
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Quoting doug_Or (Reply 1):
No one. Everytime a merger occurs in the US, someone seems to ask "what about Alaska"? Well, what about Alaska? They are doing fine, they have with plenty of airlines codeshares wihch preclude the need for an actual merger, and they lack much of a real hub to mesh well with a traditional legacy carrier

  

Quoting DL WIDGET HEAD (Reply 9):
hence the run up in the AS stock price in anticipation of a takeover.

  

Sure, because after all, the only thing that makes stock prices rise is takeover speculation.   

Profitability never does that. Neither does very positive forward-looking statements from the company or outlook from analysts. Or winning back-to-back JD Power Awards.

Nah, all that stuff never does anything for stock price - just takeover rumors.   

Quoting seabosdca (Reply 19):
AS is very useful to both DL and AA. It's much more useful to both in its current state than it would be if either one actually bought it.

  

And this is the thing no one ever seems to understand - the fact that both DL and AA are integral to AS. Think of AS as a three-legged stool, where AS/QX is one leg, DL is another, and AA is the third.

Factor in a merger with DL or AA, and what happens? You have to take one of those legs away.

And we all know what happens when you remove one leg of a three-legged stool...



"In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem - government IS the problem." - Ronald Reagan
User currently offlineDL WIDGET HEAD From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 2100 posts, RR: 5
Reply 24, posted (4 years 7 months 3 weeks 11 hours ago) and read 13151 times:

Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 23):
Sure, because after all, the only thing that makes stock prices rise is takeover speculation.

AS stock up 10.3 % TODAY based on takeover possibility.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6424C120100503

Deny it all you want, It's probably going to happen and you might have to add an AA or DL to your username.   


25 isitsafenow : Alaska will go it alone...for a while. The next one on the "hit list" should be Jet Blue. The Q is w h o will buy Blue? safem
26 Post contains images EA CO AS : Keep telling yourself that if it makes you feel better...
27 Post contains images Stitch : Considering AA's track record with other West Coast carriers they have absorbed (Air Cal and Reno Air, for example), I would think rumors of an AA tak
28 Cubsrule : But that's meaningless without more information, isn't it? Remember when UA's stock lost 20 or 30 percent in a day in 2008 or so when they "filed for
29 Post contains links AeroWeanie : Here is an article in last week's Seattle Times: http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/htm...echnology/2011729297_alaska29.html
30 alaska737 : Wow, you delta nuts are something else.
31 DeltAirlines : Sums it up perfectly. AAG isn't (at this time) going to be a willing participant in a merger. Delta in the near future is not going to be buying out
32 hatbutton : Hilarious. Good one. That's fine and all. But it's not hitting stock prices right now that it hasn't already hit this year. If it goes over $50/share
33 rgreenftm : An AS employee read me a quote Bill Ayer sent to employees today, that was essentially "We're not looking to merge with anyone at this time". An AS em
34 HNL-Jack : I've been one of those who believes AS is not open to merger and if it were an AA merger would only add up to lots of red ink once you apply AA's cost
35 EA CO AS : Here's the word direct from Bill: Continental and United have stated they are pursuing this merger because they believe it’s the best way to delive
36 CALMSP : I would have prefered to see CO and AS get in bed together.
37 93Sierra : What about US? They are merger hungry being denied Delta, and turned away by United...they could build a new SEA-China/Japan etc LCC route network, ha
38 Post contains images EA CO AS : AS isn't interested in buying US, but might be interested in picking up some key assets from them when they finally liquidate.
39 0NEWAIR0 : While it is true that Alaska is doing very well as a codeshare *hore and could continue to thrive under this model, my vote goes for Delta purchasing
40 DeltAirlines : A very good way to put it. Before US Airways goes off and tries merging with someone else, they need to look at their own house and get it in order.
41 Jacobin777 : I'm not a US fan but unless it merges or gets bought out, US really isn't going anywhere. It has a decent balance sheet.
42 alexinwa : As much as I agree with you,...........and it's my hometown airline,.................it's days are numbered. It would be a huge asset to AA, but I th
43 cws818 : It's not inevitable, though. AA and DL each have a relationship with AS that works well, without the complications and costs of an integration proces
44 woodsboy : Ha ha! Just try and get a merger past the AS Board, you are dreaming! What on earth could AS possibly benefit from a merger that would result in the A
45 SuperDash : I still contend that Alaska will join an alliance by then end of next year. Both American and Delta will make very nice (financial) pitches to enterin
46 spacecadet : Why do people think this matters? All the other reasons might, but not this one. Lots of profitable companies merge. Just because you're profitable a
47 Post contains images EA CO AS : How do you figure? Joining an alliance of one means AS would be forced to give up the revenue from the other - and that's revenue of about $150-175M.
48 gmcc : I would prefer that AS remained independent. However, if AS has to be combine with anyone how about this, Hawaiian Alaska Air Group (HAAG), AS, QX, HA
49 cws818 : Could it work? Sure, if they try hard enough. However, despite the overlaps of the Mainland-Hawaii flying, there isn't a business case for such a com
50 Bluewave 707 : AS, HA, WN, B6 will all remain independent ...
51 Post contains images jpj777 : I'm flying them this month to Seattle from Vegas, I love Alaska Airlines and I do hope they stay independent ( How about Alaska-Jet Blue-Frontier merg
52 AirframeAS : Do you realize that by joining an Alliance, you are limited in everything you do whereas as a codeshare whore, you can do pretty much anything you wa
53 qqflyboy : What we have to remember is the merger between DL/NW and UA/CO is all about international reach. Neither merger brought much to the table for the resp
54 MrSkyGuy : I recall reading that COA and UAL's routes had very little overlap--less than 20 routes if I recall. How does that mean that a consolidation brought
55 doug_Or : How? Yes they have a "strong west coast presence", but at least with their current route map they really don't add to the network. Alaska is primaril
56 worldtraveler : Mergers and acquisitions are not about how much AS might have for itself in its own network but about how their shareholder value can be maximized. AS
57 Cubsrule : Perhaps, but wouldn't potential revenue also be a factor? After all, if merging would add zero profitable routes to the network, that's quite a bit d
58 dl767captain : clearly you didn't read the rest of my post. I said Alaska fits with DL really well but they just don't need to
59 worldtraveler : The routes are valuable revenue sources for any airline that operates them... why would they no longer have value just because the Delta name goes on
60 XT6Wagon : I could see WN wanting to, however I can not see WN seeing it as a good investment since AS is healthy, which means more expensive and more difficult
61 Cubsrule : ...and I didn't argue any differently. But to pretend that costs are the whole picture when the revenues that various airlines might earn from the ne
62 Post contains images DocLightning : If AS and AA were to merge, the new carrier would be AA. For branding reasons, naming a major global flag carrier "Alaska Airlines" makes no sense. I
63 bobnwa : An airline doesn't have to be on the table nor does the management have to want a merger for it to happen. If some airline makes an offer and the sha
64 AirframeAS : I just have one question for those who like to get jiggy on stirring the pot with seeing AS merge with someone on a constant basis...... Did AS do som
65 alaska737 : No I did, and I understand what your saying, I just find it funny that all you Delta fans want to and/or have a vision of AS and DL merging
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