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New Frontier #4  
User currently offlinemariner From New Zealand, joined Nov 2001, 25015 posts, RR: 85
Posted (4 years 3 months 7 hours ago) and read 12163 times:
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The summer expansion is in full swing with about half of the new cities added. I thought we might be seeing the first stirrings of the Fall schedule by now, but I guess we have a week or three to go.

I'm still intrigued to see which aircraft they use on DEN-ASE - assuming either the E170 or the E190 can be certified for that airport. I'd be sorry to lose ASE.

As a reminder, the Q1 report will be out soon, which is BB says will be a loss for RAH - just as he has been predicting for some months. No one should be surprised. Combining two airlines ain't cheap and the price of fuel really isn't helping anyone.



There's a lot of small stuff happening - in the previous thread n7371f made reference to the Best Care Club at DEN. I've heard (?) the timing depends on the present tenant vacating the premises.

Frontier is also having a sale of Classic Plus, which, on some routes, makes it cheaper by about $100 to buy a Classic Plus fare than an Economy fare. At least one person on Facebook can't get their head around that. LOL.

I hope I haven't cut anyone's subject matter off at the pass - if I have please repost in this thread.

The main theme at the end of the previous thread appear to be hopes for a continued restoration of Midwest routes - MCI-SAN, eg, and hopes for more service from places such as RDU.

mariner


aeternum nauta
229 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineAirframeAS From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 14150 posts, RR: 24
Reply 1, posted (4 years 3 months 7 hours ago) and read 12159 times:

Quoting mariner (Thread starter):
rontier is also having a sale of Classic Plus, which, on some routes, makes it cheaper by about $100 to buy a Classic Plus fare than an Economy fare. At least one person on Facebook can't get their head around that. LOL.

LOL! I saw that. Somebody needs to go back to Economics class....  

Mariner, I thought you deleted your FB account.   

We received 206 last Thursday, Alberta and Clipper on the tail.

207 has been built and taxi tests were done. Posted on YouTube....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uZ4TqXFgsII



A Safe Flight Begins With Quality Maintenance On The Ground.
User currently offlinemariner From New Zealand, joined Nov 2001, 25015 posts, RR: 85
Reply 2, posted (4 years 3 months 7 hours ago) and read 12122 times:
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Quoting AirframeAS (Reply 1):
Mariner, I thought you deleted your FB account.

Yes. I still read the page, though, in case anything interesting turns up. There are some good pics of the new concourse and Frontier counters at PHF.

mariner



aeternum nauta
User currently offlineAirframeAS From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 14150 posts, RR: 24
Reply 3, posted (4 years 3 months 7 hours ago) and read 12086 times:

Quoting mariner (Reply 2):
There are some good pics of the new concourse and Frontier counters at PHF.

And there is a video of the arrival into PHF too. Looks like they sent Griz.



A Safe Flight Begins With Quality Maintenance On The Ground.
User currently offlinemariner From New Zealand, joined Nov 2001, 25015 posts, RR: 85
Reply 4, posted (4 years 3 months 6 hours ago) and read 12038 times:
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Quoting AirframeAS (Reply 3):
Looks like they sent Griz.

So I should hope.  

DEN-PHF is one of the most interesting routes to me of the new summer bunch. It's out of the box thinking, which I love. I guess it will be okay for the summer, but I would think the winter traffic depends on their ability to capture some military traffic.

Obviously, the PHF airport director is hoping that this route does well and that they will then get a non-stop to the west coast. Hmmm. Dunno.

Meanwhile, the airport director at next door ORF is paying for a study to see what western routes they can get. LOL.

FWIW, the others that really interest me are MSN-DEN, DEN-SBA and MKE-CMH.

MSN-DEN seems to me to be one of the most important routes for the combined airline, spreading the reach in Wisconsin beyond Milwaukee.

I don't know if we will ever see many more routes from MSN, but is Florida a possibility?

As for DEN-SBA, if it can work - and I don't know - it may open up the Central Coast of California, but it's a lot of capacity to throw at it.

I know Kansas City quite well, I lived there for a year, but MCI-CMH is one I know nothing about. One blogger suggests the downside to it:

http://blogs.pitch.com/plog/2010/05/...to_nondescript_midwestern_city.php

"KCI heralds nonstop service to nondescript Midwestern city"

And a comment suggests that the headline should read: "KCI heralds nonstop service to another nondescript Midwestern city"

But I have always believed there is traffic "in the middle" - that not everything is the middle to the coast. So - fingers crossed on that one. I suspect it will take time to build.

mariner



aeternum nauta
User currently offlineNZblue From United States of America, joined Jun 2004, 637 posts, RR: 3
Reply 5, posted (4 years 3 months 6 hours ago) and read 11990 times:

Quoting AirframeAS (Reply 3):
Looks like they sent Griz.

Looks more like Benny to me.



It's an entirely different kind of flying; all together.
User currently offlineboydatageek From United States of America, joined Nov 2009, 127 posts, RR: 0
Reply 6, posted (4 years 3 months 5 hours ago) and read 11875 times:

Quoting mariner (Reply 4):
But I have always believed there is traffic "in the middle" - that not everything is the middle to the coast

In the past I have thought MCI-Corpus Christi would be good. I now think DEN-CRP would be even better. There are a LOT of Colorado license plates in my Condo complex parking lot!. There is NO, absolutely NO western direction departures. AA through DFW, CO through IAH and SW through HOU.


User currently offlineknope2001 From United States of America, joined May 2005, 2876 posts, RR: 30
Reply 7, posted (4 years 3 months 4 hours ago) and read 11863 times:

Quoting mariner (Reply 4):

I know Kansas City quite well, I lived there for a year, but MCI-CMH is one I know nothing about. One blogger suggests the downside to it:

http://blogs.pitch.com/plog/2010/05/...to_nondescript_midwestern_city.php

"KCI heralds nonstop service to nondescript Midwestern city"

And a comment suggests that the headline should read: "KCI heralds nonstop service to another nondescript Midwestern city"

Hello, kettle? It's the pot calling! (For those not familiar with the idiom, "It's like the pot calling the kettle black")

Anyway...MCI-CMH has a couple of components to it.

(1) Columbus is giving incentives for new city pairs, so there's some break on costs for the new MCI-CMH service

(2) The reworking of the daily flight bank at MCI means a plane which used to do an off-hours Boston trip would sit in Kansas City for much of the day. By adding MCI-CMH they're able to use that slack more usefully. The plane had been doing a 6:00am BOS departure to MCI which struggled to fill seats. Now it's a business-friendly 7:40am departure from CMH, with a similarly reasonable 9:25pm arrive into CMH.

(3) Putting the KC flight into Columbus opens up another avenue to west coast service from CMH. Ultimately I'd guess there will someday be CMH-DEN, but in the mean time this was a fairly easy way to expand Columbus' reach into the combined network.

MCI-CMH isn't starting out gangbusters, and the E190 may well prove to be too much aircraft for the traffic some of the year. But it's getting the E190 based on what's running through MCI at this point.

Separately, I'm keeping an eye on GRB and MSN to see how they are doing, and so far it seems like they are both filling seats reasonably well.


User currently offlinen7371f From United States of America, joined Jul 2008, 1696 posts, RR: 12
Reply 8, posted (4 years 3 months 4 hours ago) and read 11851 times:
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Ouch! $70.5 million loss on branded before taxes and charges. That is not good. That is not a small loss for a quarter.

User currently offlinekingcavalier From United States of America, joined Nov 2006, 1302 posts, RR: 17
Reply 9, posted (4 years 3 months 4 hours ago) and read 11817 times:

Quoting n7371f (Reply 8):
Ouch! $70.5 million loss on branded before taxes and charges. That is not good. That is not a small loss for a quarter.

Of course it's not a small loss, but it was expected. I'll let others interpret the numbers. It seems like some big charges. RAH is expecting the next 2 quarters to be profitable.

http://eon.businesswire.com/portal/s...&newsId=20100504007662&newsLang=en



Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow-mindedness
User currently offlineMKENut From United States of America, joined Jul 2007, 699 posts, RR: 1
Reply 10, posted (4 years 3 months 3 hours ago) and read 11696 times:

Proof we really do have badgers in Wisconsin. Funny this happened within a week of Frontier's kicked off of "name the badger" contest.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UvzeRX-Wfq4


User currently offlineDiverDave From United States of America, joined Mar 2010, 321 posts, RR: 0
Reply 11, posted (4 years 3 months 3 hours ago) and read 11682 times:

Quoting mariner (Reply 4):
As for DEN-SBA, if it can work - and I don't know - it may open up the Central Coast of California, but it's a lot of capacity to throw at it.

An interesting experiment. DEN-SMX would be more interesting!

David


User currently offlineberyllium From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 12, posted (4 years 3 months 1 hour ago) and read 11552 times:

Quoting kingcavalier (Reply 9):
Of course it's not a small loss, but it was expected. I'll let others interpret the numbers. It seems like some big charges. RAH is expecting the next 2 quarters to be profitable.

There is not much to interpret.
The numbers speak for themselves.
$70 million loss in a quarter for branded operations of such a (comparatively) small scale is enormous and unsustainable. (Compare it with $80+something million loss of UA in the quarter... but UA is several times the size of F9/YX)...

Revenue-guarantee portion shrank 22% YoY, and was insufficient to offset the massive losses from branded operations.
And there is no doubt that going forward this "life support" will be in steady decline, as majors will be minimizing the RAH contract flying, or maybe even gradually cutting the ties altogether.
Next 2 quarters are summer season - of course they will be better for branded business. But, overall result for the year will, for sure, be negative.

Someone mentioned that F9 was a profitable (albeit bankrupt) airline when it was acquired...  
If so, it seems like RAH is not doing a good job if all that profitability somehow transformed into such a huge loss less than a year after acquisition...


User currently offlineAntoniemey From United States of America, joined Dec 2005, 1555 posts, RR: 4
Reply 13, posted (4 years 3 months 1 hour ago) and read 11521 times:

Quoting beryllium (Reply 12):
Someone mentioned that F9 was a profitable (albeit bankrupt) airline when it was acquired...
If so, it seems like RAH is not doing a good job if all that profitability somehow transformed into such a huge loss less than a year after acquisition...

Those numbers also include Midwest, which was not profitable when it was acquired, and integration costs. Did you miss the part where RAH has been predicting FOR MONTHS that they would be taking a loss in the first quarter?

Right now they're paying to move people around, rebranding half of the operation to match the other half, and figuring out what the heck to do with all of Midwest's former employees who seem determined to blame RAH for the failure of Midwest's previous management. All of these affect the bottom line in the short term but in the long term will be just a small bump on the road to effectively doubling F9's reach in less than a year.

Clearly they know where the money is going and they expect it to turn the other way for the 2nd quarter.



Make something Idiot-proof, and the Universe will make a more inept idiot.
User currently offlineFlyPNS1 From United States of America, joined Nov 1999, 6588 posts, RR: 24
Reply 14, posted (4 years 3 months 1 hour ago) and read 11501 times:

Quoting beryllium (Reply 12):
If so, it seems like RAH is not doing a good job if all that profitability somehow transformed into such a huge loss less than a year after acquisition...

To be fair, the rise in fuel prices is heavily to blame. Much like the old Frontier (and other carriers too), new Frontier is sensitive to fuel prices. In fact, I would argue that F9 is even more sensitive to fuel than most carriers since F9 has little pricing power given the battles raging at both hubs. When fuel prices rise, it is tough for F9 to appreciably raise fares to offset.


User currently offlinerj777 From United States of America, joined Dec 2000, 1790 posts, RR: 2
Reply 15, posted (4 years 3 months 1 hour ago) and read 11494 times:

I suggested Bradyn for the badger name.

User currently offlineberyllium From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 16, posted (4 years 3 months 1 hour ago) and read 11447 times:

Quoting Antoniemey (Reply 13):
Clearly they know where the money is going and they expect it to turn the other way for the 2nd quarter.

Sure, 2nd and 3rd quarters will be better... but just because they are supposed to be better, because it is a high season for air travel, when the demand is picking up.
The 4th quarter comes after the 3rd, though. And that's where RAH's financials will take another huge hit...

Quoting Antoniemey (Reply 13):
All of these affect the bottom line in the short term but in the long term will be just a small bump on the road to effectively doubling F9's reach in less than a year.

With such losses the "long term" might never materialize. RAH is accustomed to guaranteed profits (from regional flying contracted by majors). That's what they were all about for years and years. Now, being involved in this adventuristic branded experiment, they are in a different environment, and suffering such losses will make them starting to look for a way out of this nightmare.

Quoting Antoniemey (Reply 13):
Did you miss the part where RAH has been predicting FOR MONTHS that they would be taking a loss in the first quarter?

I didn't miss that.
I simply doubt they themselves envisioned the quarterly loss of such magnitude for such a small branded operation.


User currently offlinemariner From New Zealand, joined Nov 2001, 25015 posts, RR: 85
Reply 17, posted (4 years 3 months 1 hour ago) and read 11404 times:
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Quoting beryllium (Reply 16):
I simply doubt they themselves envisioned the quarterly loss of such magnitude for such a small branded operation.

I don't know why they wouldn't.

Last March - in one month alone - Frontier alone lost $130 million, because of special charges.

It is special charges that are driving a bulk of this loss.

mariner

[Edited 2010-05-04 19:07:25]


aeternum nauta
User currently offlineAntoniemey From United States of America, joined Dec 2005, 1555 posts, RR: 4
Reply 18, posted (4 years 3 months 1 hour ago) and read 11387 times:

Quoting beryllium (Reply 16):
I simply doubt they themselves envisioned the quarterly loss of such magnitude for such a small branded operation.

Small is relative, I suppose. Certainly F9 is nothing compared to WN in size, but they're certainly not Spirit or Allegiant either. They are a Major air carrier and with that comes the occasional "loss of such magnitude."



Make something Idiot-proof, and the Universe will make a more inept idiot.
User currently onlineYXwatcherMKE From United States of America, joined May 2007, 971 posts, RR: 2
Reply 19, posted (4 years 3 months ago) and read 11338 times:

From SanFan Post 22 New Frontier #3...
To both of these posts, I add: I'm still waiting to see MCI-SAN added back to the F9 route map. (To the best of my knowledge, this is the only, or maybe one of very few, mainline routes that YX dropped in 2008 -- fall -- that has not yet been resumed...)

The route is currently served n/s by WN, as it was when YX also flew it before.

Ok My bad again twice in one week. I thought for sure YX had restarted Operating the the MCI-SAN route with the MKE-SAN route. Thats what I get for not double checking my stuff. Ok So that was a was a bad(well semi-bad) idea to use as an example because the MCI-SAN route should be back on the map. And it down right Pi#$es me off that WN is always right behind F9 or the old YX when a new route is started or cut a route because of seasonal changes. I am at a loss how WN can seem to be johnny on the spot when someone drops or enters a route that is within there system area.



I miss the 60's & 70's when you felt like a guest on the plane not cattle like today
User currently offlineberyllium From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 20, posted (4 years 2 months 4 weeks 1 day 23 hours ago) and read 11245 times:

Quoting Antoniemey (Reply 18):
Small is relative, I suppose. Certainly F9 is nothing compared to WN in size, but they're certainly not Spirit or Allegiant either. They are a Major air carrier and with that comes the occasional "loss of such magnitude."

Yes, by "small" I meant in relation to the "big guys". (I mentioned UA in reply #12, saying that their $80m loss is not the same as $70m loss of F9/YX).
I certainly did not mean to compare F9/YX to NK or G4... those are smaller... and profitable.

Quoting mariner (Reply 17):
Last March - in one month alone - Frontier alone lost $130 million, because of special charges.

It is special charges that are driving a bulk of this loss.

Could be.
There is an item called "Other" in the list of their operation expenses which accounts for $81.5 million. If the bulk of those represents some sort of one-time special charges - then good for them. But, they haven't stressed that out in their report. That's why there are doubts that this loss is mostly due to special charges.


User currently offlinenoise From United States of America, joined Dec 1999, 1768 posts, RR: 4
Reply 21, posted (4 years 2 months 4 weeks 1 day 23 hours ago) and read 11216 times:

Why is there such speculation that they'll have RDU as their newest 'focus city' or hub? Has anyone actually come out and said they're looking to expand at RDU?

User currently offlineberyllium From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 22, posted (4 years 2 months 4 weeks 1 day 23 hours ago) and read 11189 times:

Quoting noise (Reply 21):
Why is there such speculation that they'll have RDU as their newest 'focus city' or hub? Has anyone actually come out and said they're looking to expand at RDU?

Because they need something other than DEN and MKE.
It is clear that as it all stands now, you cannot make money in those 2 cities - both are under ever-expanding low-fare giants' attack (WN in DEN and FL in MKE) and flooded with their capacity.
Let's take MKE, for example. Here is what FL offers for sale right now:http://www.airtran.com/sale/MKE.aspx?saleID=442 (link does not work)...

Akron/Canton $74
Atlanta $79
Baltimore $69
Boston $79
Dallas/Ft. Worth $82
Denver $84
Des Moines $94
Ft. Lauderdale $94
Ft. Myers $89
Indianapolis $59
Las Vegas $124
Los Angeles (LAX) $124
Minneapolis/St. Paul $49
New York (LaGuardia) $74
Omaha $74
Orlando $84
Pittsburgh $59
San Diego $124
San Francisco $124
Seattle $124
St. Louis $59
Tampa $84
Washington, D.C. (Reagan National) $84

FL files those sales every week.
F9 has no other option but to match that (on those routes where FL and F9 compete head to head).
Now, when you offer a seat, let's say, on MKE-FLL for $94 what kind of yield can you expect to get from the flight? What portion (in %) of your expenses will that cover?
The same story in DEN. WN fires dirty cheap sales over there regularly, brutally trashing F9's yields.
The lower the yields, the lower is the chance to cover your cost and break even.
That's why such cities as RDU come into consideration. Those cities do not have that much of low-fare competition, as MKE or DEN, and it could be possible to charge higher fares and maybe even run profitable operation over there...

[Edited 2010-05-04 21:09:03]

[Edited 2010-05-04 21:21:30]

User currently offlinemariner From New Zealand, joined Nov 2001, 25015 posts, RR: 85
Reply 23, posted (4 years 2 months 4 weeks 1 day 23 hours ago) and read 11188 times:
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Quoting beryllium (Reply 20):
That's why there are doubts that this loss is mostly due to special charges.

Who has doubts? Wall Street? For sure, I expect the stock price will take a hit in the morning. The stock price took a 5% hit in after hours, since the report was released..

But BB has been telling people since the acquisition that Q1 would be ugly and lo - it's ugly.

Once you get past the headline grabbing numbers, it is a slightly different picture. In this article alone, I can see special charges listed - charges that won't happen again:

http://www.jsonline.com/business/92830974.html

"Republic's pre-tax loss of $58.5 million included the $11.5 million charge tied to the Midwest brand write-off, and $13.1 million of expenses related to the integration of Midwest and Frontier. Also, the quarter's severe winter storms had an estimated $7.5 million negative impact on pre-tax results, according to a company statement."

Most the special charges are non-recurring - the $11.5 million for the brand write-off won't happen again. Add 'em all up and I get to over $30 million and that's without a pencil and paper or reference to the actual report.

The net Republic loss was $36.5 million. Take out just that $30 million in special charges and it becomes a somewhat different picture.

Quoting beryllium (Reply 20):
Could be.

Actually, I shouldn't have relied on memory - it was more. The net loss for March 2009 was $161 million.

http://frontierair.tekgroupweb.com/article_display.cfm?article_id=4174

"Frontier also reported a consolidated operating profit of $25.1 million and a net loss of $161.0 million for the March quarter."

The bulk of that was in one special charge:

"Special items for the three months ended March 2009 included:

Reorganization costs of $179.8 million, primarily attributable to a Republic Airways unsecured claim allowed by the bankruptcy court"


As it turned out, that charge of $149 million was extremely useful at the auction. It allowed Republic to have its cake and eat it too.

mariner



aeternum nauta
User currently offlineberyllium From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 24, posted (4 years 2 months 4 weeks 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 11160 times:

Quoting mariner (Reply 23):
Actually, I shouldn't have relied on memory - it was more. The net loss for March 2009 was $161 million.

Are we talking about March 2009... or this quarter (March 2010)?

Here is what they show for Q1-2010 (for branded operations):

ASM (in thousands) - 3,696,696
CASM including interest expense - 11.13 cents
Revenue (in thousands) - 352,337

They also make a note for CASM saying that "Costs exclude impairments of $13.3 million in 2009 on the fixed-fee segment and $11.5 million in 2010 on the branded segment. Also excludes other expenses not attributable to either fixed-fee or branded segments".
So, CASM shown excludes "special charges".
Now, let's multiply ASM and CASM to get the cost:
3,696,696 x $0.1113 = $411,442
As we see, it is a lot larger than the revenue number ($352, 337) that they got from their branded operations in Q1-2010.
And as they say themselves, special charges are not considered in the result here...


25 n7371f : When did he ever use the word 'ugly?' I never heard BB use that word to describe first quarter earnings. That doesn't mean he didn't say it...but in
26 mariner : As stated - the loss for March 2009 was $161 million. When Frontier was in bk, it reported by the month, not by the quarter. I don't remember where I
27 FRNT787 : And they think it will be profitable. They have been accurate thus far regarding their earnings guidance. He said they expected a substantial loss...
28 beryllium : OK. Gotcha... I was somewhat confused at first how F9 could have $161m of special charges for this March (2010)... But,the result for this quarter (Q
29 mariner : Some of it is. And you have just subtracted $11.5 million from the $70 million: Why limit it to the $11.5 million since there was more? What about th
30 beryllium : They have accurately predicted this Q1-2010 loss of $70m?... Also, it would be interesting to find out what inputs (fuel cost, average fare, market s
31 beryllium : Because we are talking about their branded operations. 13.1 is the impairment charge for the fixed-fee part of their business. It does not apply to $
32 Post contains links mariner : Hmmm? http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Republ...ldings-bw-1761495543.html?x=0&.v=1 "The Company also recorded a total of $13.1 million of expenses r
33 beryllium : OK. Fair enough... Let's subtract 13.1 from 59. We get what? Something like 45-46m loss from branded ops? Better than 59, but still quite impressive.
34 AirframeAS : It was Benny. Aircraft 812.
35 mariner : Then take out $7 million for the storms and we're down to around or below $40 million. Which isn't good, but is hardly surprising, it was predicted a
36 loggat : BB himself said that March was operationally profitable for the branded side. It seems that January and February must've been extremely miserable (I k
37 ScottB : I suppose he didn't stress enough how ugly it would be. RAH missed on the analyst estimates by a pretty wide margin. That's why the share price is do
38 FRNT787 : Much of it, again, according to the report is special items... BB said it would be a substantial loss...so...yes. Everything I have ever seen from BB
39 FlyPNS1 : It's not what investors were expecting and I think the folks at RAH knew it....hence why they did the sketchy release of numbers after the market had
40 mariner : Or people didn't listen. Once agaim, I knew, and I live in New Zealand. Hmmmm? I just woke up - literalally, it is sparrow fart here - just checked Y
41 beryllium : I have never said that RAH management is "inept and stupid". That's just how some of my posts are perceived here - "if beryllium is criticizing the a
42 Post contains links mariner : LOL. I didn't find the numbers "sketchy." We worked through a dela of them here last night - while I was trying to cook a three course diner for twel
43 FlyPNS1 : The numbers weren't sketchy (except for the lame storm losses charge), but releasing them at night after the market has closed is sketchy. Companies
44 ScottB : When someone says A, not B, that typically means A to the exclusion of B. But they did report by the quarter, to the SEC, as required by law. It woul
45 mariner : LOL By that standard, I suppose I should have written that they reported monthly, quarterly - and annually. mariner
46 Post contains links mariner : The April traffic report seems quite lost in all this: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Republ...Reports-bw-715327009.html?x=0&.v=1 "The branded oper
47 PlaneAdmirer : Ok - here is a side question - Will the Frontier branded credit card start to reach the same level of perks and, of course, costs that the Continental
48 n7371f : Well I listened to the entire investor call live...and the biggest problem that came out of it was needing an operator on the next call who can speak
49 AirframeAS : He has been saying this for a quite awhile. It was also noted a couple times in his letters to employees. No real surprise on the loss, to me, it see
50 YXwatcherMKE : I just heard and ad on WTMJ 620 Radio about the prices that you listed in this posting. The ad clearly stated that these prices $49.00 to $149.00 any
51 n7371f : Yeah but load factor is one of the weakest indicators of financial performance. You can fill 98% of your seats - but if your selling every fare for $
52 Post contains links and images flyusairways : I was fortunate to take part in the inaugural flight/new terminal opening at PHF. On Saturday, the airport held a great celebration to mark the openin
53 Post contains links mariner : Certainly that is true. Frontier's first ever profit (2Q, 1998?) was achieved on a 55% load factor. But even so, I'd rather have a high load factor t
54 AirframeAS : Great pictures. Thanks for flying on us! I see that the rampers were wearing FRONTIER vests. Do we have our own crew, above and below wing, at PHF?
55 YXwatcherMKE : Granted that yield/CASH is more important I was just was stating that this was nice to see a good figure on Load. That all!
56 Post contains links mariner : It's a good summary, thanks for that. If anyone didn't hear the call - or can't - it is available here: http://seekingalpha.com/article/2031...nings-
57 FL787 : Come on FL! Probably not though... If any ERJ markets should be making money for F9, it's these 3. Short, no competition, and strong YX cities. But w
58 mariner : I don't think anyone - here - is claiming that it is any more than what it is. Even so, given the competitive situation at both DEN and MKE, I don't
59 flyusairways : Thanks! I really enjoyed the flight. It's my third with Frontier, and I've really grown to love the company. Not sure, but I can check on it. As far
60 FRNT787 : They released their (profitable) numbers for Q1 the same way. The night before the conference call. I do not find a pattern to be sketchy. It's like
61 Jetmatt777 : The F9 route map shows OKC/OMA-MCO on it but OKC/OMA-TPA gone. Looks like MCO will be resumed seasonally for both OKC and OMA.
62 beryllium : This particular sale ends on Friday. But, FL files them regularly (by the way, they are not just web fares; they are available through GDS as well),
63 mariner : Load factor isn't "meaningless" to me - and I guess not "meaningless" to others, since it is a common metric. But thanks for trying to teach me how t
64 beryllium : No need to thank me. I am not trying to teach anyone. You mentioned LF in your post #46, and I simply said that high LF is nothing really to brag abo
65 mariner : Who's bragging about it? Stating a fact is not "bragging." When did I say that it did? mariner
66 beryllium : OK. No one is bragging, just stating the fact. Likewise, no one is teaching anybody - just interpreting that fact about LF. What's interesting though
67 mariner : The fact that you found it necessary to explain to me how to arrive at yield suggests you think I didn't know. In my business, there are two points w
68 MKENut : Soooo, if it were up to you I guess you'd be pulling the plug on MKE? You'd pull Frontier back to one hub or where would you go? I think Frontier nee
69 beryllium : Not at yield... at RASM (it is different from yield, and it is a bottom line of your operation). This business is just like any other business - make
70 mariner : Actually, that isn't true. You can make a pizza so cheap that no one will want it. So I guess everything that Republic said today about DEN is meanin
71 beryllium : Unlike pizza, airline ASM (the unit of production in the airline transportation business) is a commodity type of asset (kind of like oil, or salt). M
72 kingcavalier : He is funny. March was a company record LF, and we hear it was a profitable month. April is another company record LF, and I expect it to be profitab
73 mariner : That simply isn't true. I have seen prices dropped to giveaway and still no one wants the product. That's what you said last time - when you went awa
74 Post contains links kingcavalier : This should be fun to watch. http://www.usatoday.com/travel/fligh...tendant_N.htm?loc=interstitialskip I believe it airs tomorrow except in Denver whe
75 Post contains images Antoniemey : Good Evening, Mr Bethune. Continental Airlines circa 1992-ish would disagree with you.
76 lrdc9 : This statement did not deserve a shock and awe response. What this is true. LF means so very little when not tied to other standard industry measures
77 Post contains images mariner : I can only say to you what i said to Beryllium - that in many circumstances, load factor can be - stress "can be" - a key as to whether people want t
78 Post contains links and images mariner : And given that Allegiant has had extraordinary success, here's a fun fact that many don't remember: http://www.thefreelibrary.com/Allegi...ween+Denve
79 airfrnt : I wonder with what's going on with the CO/UA merger, if one of their hubs gets dehubbed, if MKE gets de-emphasized. I would love to know what Airtran
80 Antoniemey : I don't really see F9 trying to make a hub in Cleveland...
81 Post contains images lrdc9 : Well, NK seems to be doing ok. Though we don;t know. But it's a pizza cheap enough I won't ever buy it. Glad to see we agree. We'll have a shootout a
82 mariner : Well, yes, but even so I think that load factor is a much more interesting metric than many people suggest. Spirit is doing okay, but I don't think t
83 FlyPNS1 : There's a difference between cheap price and cheap product. Bethune's comment was in regard to cheap product, not cheap price, so your statement does
84 boydatageek : Actually both of these are bad measures too! The metric that makes the most sence to evaluate a company and route is Revenue per "Seat Block hour". E
85 dfanucci : To me RASM and CASM fall into "figures never lie, but liars always figure" category. Load factors can and do tell a story. Whether some want to read
86 Post contains images dfanucci : Bingo! You beat my post by six seconds! -D
87 Post contains images AirframeAS : A Gordon Bethune quote in a F9 thread.... Love it! I won't be able to watch it. I work the morning shifts on Fridays.
88 mariner : I can think of a couple of Frontier routes where they almost couldn't give seats away. And both of them were routes without competition. It depends w
89 beryllium : Well, to be precise, Cost per Block Hour does not take into account those cost peaks that you mentioned (take-offs, landings, and so on), either. Cos
90 PlanesNTrains : I am amused that suddenly load factors are meaningless. Virtually every press release on earnings includes it as a metric, and it is an important part
91 mariner : That basic concept is right, but it isn't what one "wants" to hear. It is what one "needs" to hear. It can be full of surprises, and it teaches a gre
92 FlyPNS1 : They're part of every release because they are simple to understand even if they don't have much real value. RASM/CASM are more complicated and only
93 PlanesNTrains : Sure. So I guess my question is this: Do you look at the load factor numbers? If so, why? -Dave
94 mariner : LOL. How many times do I have to say that I've been involved with what puts butts in seats - financial performance - all my working life? It is an es
95 dfanucci : And you are equating this to F9's BK, how? The BK horse has been beaten to death. RASM, CASM, and L/F's had nothing to do with it as I remember.... D
96 Post contains links mariner : There's a small reference to this in Cranky Flier today - BB gives hints as to his thinking: http://crankyflier.com/2010/05/06/fi...ooperating-with-l
97 AirframeAS : I think it is worth noting, again, that SJC is ending May 14th which is next Friday. I tried to do a trip on the route before the market goes away on
98 YXwatcherMKE : I don't have their load factor but percentage, but I do have some data on the emplaments and and Disembarckments at MKE by both FL/OO and the combine
99 sunking737 : How does WN fit in? DL?
100 Post contains images beryllium : So, in Q1-2010 F9's LF was at 70+% level, and still the airline was quite far from breaking even. My guess would be that for the Q1 BELF was somethin
101 FL787 : DL was at 10.98% for Feb, WN was at 7.44%. WN will be down to 10 flights in the fall so I wouldn't expect any significant growth from them.
102 surfandsnow : I don't think the race will be tight at all. All is quiet on the FL front with regard to MKE (DFW is all that was added since Feb, and no new cities
103 mariner : I was talking about March 2009. Since BB says the combined branded was operationally profitable in March, obviously BELF was below 100% in March 2010
104 Post contains links beryllium : Bureau of Transportation Statistics has some info about MKE here: http://www.transtats.bts.gov/airport...l%20Mitchell%20Field&carrier=FACTS It do
105 sunking737 : FL787 thanks for the info. Just wanted to see how everyone stacked up.
106 boydatageek : Again, Because costs are much less linear in miles RASM and CASM are dangerous to use when flights are less than an hour or so long, you can get some
107 FL787 : That's not quite true. Here's what FL will have in June that they didn't have in February: Added 2x LGA Added 2x SAN Added 1x SEA Added 1x SFO Added
108 beryllium : Well, the same applies to RASM, too. On short hops (MKEORD) it is always much larger than on medium- and long-hauls, because the difference in fare (
109 surfandsnow : So with a quick check of the late May/early June timetable here is what I see - 2x daily CAK (OO) 2x daily DSM (OO) 3x daily IND (OO) 3x daily OMA (O
110 Post contains images boydatageek : Although during 10 years of flying on this route I don't recall EVER seeing a local O/D Pax! Rather these short-haul legs are all part of trips like
111 FL787 : This was just recently made 4 daily. A Friday only flight was just added for the summer so it's 15x weekly. LGA and DCA have 1 flight that doesn't op
112 YXwatcherMKE : F9/YX has this on their on the web for 06-17-10. Daily unless otherwise noted. ATL - 3 145X 2 & 170 X1 ATW - 3 135 X2 & 145 X1 BNA - 3 135 X2
113 FL787 : SFO is only once daily. I see 2x E90 and 4x A319 so even more seats than you have. I don't see any 170s flying MKE-DEN. Also I'm not sure you added r
114 knope2001 : Yup, I think it was just a matter of an errant tally here and there. MKE-SFO has two flights, but the morning E190 flight stops in MCI, so the nonsto
115 YXwatcherMKE : You maybe right I was doing this during the night (02:30 to 05:00) trying to stay awake putting on Ice packs on my oldest daughter's face every 30 mi
116 knope2001 : Considering that, being within one or two of a tally like that is really pretty good!
117 knope2001 : Year-over-year, the mid summer schedule for AirTran at MKE is up 3 mainline flights versus last year. July 2009 verus July 2010 ATL -1 LGA +1 BWI -1
118 knope2001 : YX+F9 peak weekday seats this summer is 6,755 if I count correctly, which is almost 20% more than FL+OO. However The actual margin will undoubtedly b
119 mariner : Midwest watchers - did the airline ever serve anywhere out of MSN, apart form MSN-MKE? Thanks. mariner
120 yeogeo : MCI from memory in '04/'05 ? (Knope will correct). yeo
121 Post contains images MKENut : I think they tried MSN - MCI before the big cuts of 2008. Knope would remember better than I.
122 Post contains images yeogeo : Great minds think alike (at almost the same moment) ...it was with FRJ's, I believe yeo
123 Post contains images FL787 : Alright, I'll let it slide this time... That's the exact number I have in my excel sheet so I'd say we're good at counting.
124 mariner : So was it cut because it wasn't doing well, or was it because they were retrenching to the hub? mariner
125 knope2001 : They did run MCI-MSN from July 2007 to early September 2008. It was on the CRJ, and averaged around 65% full at 1x/day. The only other market served b
126 mariner : Thanks, Knope. I'm still on a steep learning curve about Wisconsin traffic. MKE is a slowly lifting fog for me, but MSN came at me out of left field.
127 Post contains links sunking737 : Has anyone seen this yet. Inside Edition about F9 F/A....This was posted on the Frontier Facebook page. Also has 2 other videos of the talking animal
128 Post contains images YXwatcherMKE : Didn't YX try MSN - LGA and GRR - LGA back in the late 80's early 90's as well? I seem to remember once going to LGA for a visit to my sister and been
129 knope2001 : It was cut as part of the massive pullback after the summer of $120+ oil. One of the many pieces that went into the restructuring to keep Midwest afl
130 knope2001 : Madison didn't have anything more than what I described, but Grand Rapids did. There are a few scenarios in which you might have stopped in Michigan.
131 Post contains images knope2001 : Ditto with Denver for me.....
132 mariner : LOL. I supposed mostly I am surprised that MSN has so little service for a city of its size - no Allegiant to LAS and/or MCO or SFB, for example, or
133 JBo : Didn't Skyway at one time serve additional destinations from GRR back when Mesa was operating it?
134 pilotfox : Does anyone know anything about a news conference taking place next Monday at MKE with BB and several WI elected officials? I'm hearing its going to b
135 YXwatcherMKE : I asked my wife if she remenbered the trip and she did. It was a Saturday Afternoon flight to EWR and it was on a DC9 and it was in '87 just before o
136 JBo : :D See, there *are* benefits to louder engines after all!
137 Post contains images YXwatcherMKE : You got that right, the rest of the pax. did not have a clue there was a baby on board. Wiskey dipped Nuk makes for happy baby on Aircraft too!
138 AirframeAS : The Badger airplane (aircraft 174HQ) made it's way to DEN yesterday morning. Saw the airplane while I was walking across the A Bridge towards the Jepp
139 knope2001 : The added GRR flights were actually when Skyway was operated by Astral, fully-owned by Midwest. GRR-Toronto was...so I was told by a high-ranking ins
140 knope2001 : Allegiant came to Madison with LAS, and Northwest jumped in quickly with MSN-LAS too. Both ended up pulling the plug. Rockford tries to sell itself t
141 mariner : I hope someone is looking at it - and preferably Frontier - just as I hope they're looking at MCO as well. I'd be surprised if they think that. BB se
142 SANFan : You guys are aware that FL, effective 5/27, also offers a SFO-MKE flight as a red-eye -- along with a daylight flight? (Flight #475 dep SF 11:59pm, a
143 FL787 : I think they were more concerned that a red-eye is going to be the only nonstop to MKE. There's nothing wrong with red-eyes, but it's probably not pr
144 Post contains links FL787 : RAH has updated their fleet plan. http://www.republicairlines.com/investorrelations.html Go to financial reports, then fleet plan. In the fourth quart
145 FRNT787 : BB stated if the spring/summer season goes well, they had the ability to source extra lift. I am not under the impression he was referring to E145s (
146 mariner : Oh, I dunno. One of the bright spots of the first LAX focus city was the non-stop red-eye LAX-PHL, with no daylight non-stop. mariner
147 AirframeAS : Keep in mind that number is after we receive 207, which we don't have in the fleet yet. Right now it is at 53.
148 YXwatcherMKE : When is 207 expected to be delivered & enter service? Don't RAH have several open options for 170/190's yet? If they do I would think they would
149 FRNT787 : There are 54 "E-Jet" options. They are for the E170/E175 from what I can tell. I am sure some negotiation could lead to conversions to E190s if they
150 YXwatcherMKE : What is the definition of shortly in this context? Weeks or Months?
151 FRNT787 : I am operating purely off BB's letters. I will say the painting schedule is planned to last all the way through the entirety of the consolidation pro
152 YXwatcherMKE : OK, Thanks I have not read BB's letters. Not sure if I would be able to since I don't work for RAH or a stock holder any longer. (I was a YX stock ho
153 FL787 : I personally love red-eyes but I was kind of just relaying what Knope was saying: I think the red-eyes will do fine but I bet yields are lower on red
154 YXwatcherMKE : Nothing wrong with Red Eyes... I wish there were more of them into MKE. But of course airline planners got to stop thinking we MKE/Wisconsin traveler
155 mariner : There may be some truth to that for domestic red-eyes - depending on the length of the route. I doubt it applies to DEN-ANC or DEN-SJO, but the seaso
156 YXwatcherMKE : Question for the MKE local folks on A.net... I have been trying to hear and see any ads on the MKE local media for F9 to see if the Badger ad is runni
157 AirframeAS : This, I do not know. Judging on who I have been talking to, it seems that 207's arrival into DEN is being kept tight lipped since everybody knows I'm
158 YXwatcherMKE : What do you mean by the "vomit colored seats"?
159 GentFromAlaska : Also keep in mind there is not a-lot of nighttime in ANC durnig the high summer season and it gets less the farther north you travel, FAI for example
160 AirframeAS : Light brown seats.
161 Post contains links FL787 : There's an excellent virtual tour on Midwest's site on an E90 with these seats: http://www.midwestairlines.com/AboutUs/PlaneTypes/E190.aspx
162 AirframeAS : That is a nice feature. It would be nice to see F9 have something similar to that. And yes, those light brown seats are the ones I am talking about.
163 JBo : They should have kept the original YX dark brown leather.
164 mariner : It's the psychology, Gent. Most people are conditioned from birth to think of "night" as sleep time - no matter if there is still light in the sky. H
165 lrdc9 : I know NW had at least one that when I flew it was on a 752. It left SFO for MSP at 12:35a.
166 mariner : Delta still has it leaving SFO at 12.40 am. Since they've kept it, I'm guessing it does well, but I'm never sure about the shorter red-eyes - I was t
167 FRNT787 : I'm afraid I dont know. I am not sure if they decided to refit the aircraft after US Air handed it over or not.
168 Post contains images surfandsnow : Why are you shocked? The purpose of a red-eye is to arrive around 5 or 6 AM, so that you (the airline, the passenger, etc.) can do one or more of the
169 MostlyAir : It still had the US Airways seats when it was sitting in the hangar in MKE. They said they would switch them out pretty fast, but don't know if they
170 GentFromAlaska : I was not arguing the ANC-DEN & FAI-DEN were not red-eyes. The departure and arrival time dictate they are. My thought process was travelers flyi
171 knope2001 : On local MKE television, I have not seen the Mahoney add in awhile but have run into the new Frontier Larry commercials a few times where they are do
172 Post contains images MKENut : Jack the Rabbit is also in a photo shoot like commercial in the Milwaukee TV Market. I caught it on my DVR while catching up on last week's shows.
173 bjorn14 : Hmmm...The E170/5 wingspan is only 9 ft longer than the CR7 that flies in there. I know ASE is narrow but that narrow? My guess is if they get both c
174 mariner : Oh. I thought I'd explained why. I'll try again - because there are so few. I said there are exceptions - Boystown, eg. Generally, Hollywood is not a
175 Post contains images ScottB : The issue at ASE likely is not the additional wingspan of the E170/175/190, but rather single engine-out take-off performance. In addition to its alt
176 AirframeAS : Except, I am not Portuguese. Jack the Snowshoe Hare.
177 Post contains links AirframeAS : First pics of 207.... http://www.flickr.com/photos/27656497@N05/4595586085/sizes/l/
178 Post contains images mariner : LOL. It is the essential dichotomy between the two. All of Hollywood revolves around the movie industry - early calls, not just for actors but for th
179 Post contains images FL787 : You've been talking about how F9 out of MKE needed an "exciting" destination. Is that what you had in mind?
180 MostlyAir : Grrrr...Sorry, I meant Brazilians. The country in which they make the Embraers, confused it with the language.
181 mariner : No, it's much more prosaic than that. But it is surprising, or part of it is. I shall be interested to see how they announce it. mariner
182 MKENut : Let's not split hares here... LOL! I am new to the animals so you'll have to excuse me.
183 Post contains images AirframeAS : You are hereby forgiven, sir! Not to worry. I am sure Jack forgives you as well. And I am not Brazilian, either, sir. American through and through he
184 FL787 : Good vocab. I had to look that one up. I'm not really following. If BKG really thinks there is a market to MKE it's not that surprising that they wou
185 mariner : It's about perception. If a route has been seen to fail, there are always raised eye-brows if someone else picks it up. Or at least - within my exper
186 MostlyAir : LOL. Stop giving me a hard time. I don't doubt you're an American. I'm talking about the people in Brazil that put together the plane and what their
187 FL787 : But does perception really matter if the route can work? If it can't work, then I guess the perception is right. A.net perception certainly doesn't a
188 rampart : Like the others, I don't think wingspan is an issue. Aspen Airlines later United Express and also NW flew to ASE using BAe 146s with 86' wingspan (an
189 Post contains images mariner : Ultimately, no. But it can be a powerful thing and it is part of the hurly-burly. I enjoy that. It helps me keep this poor ol' brain working. The gre
190 FRNT787 : Wingspan at ASE is restricted to 95 feet. E170 Wingspan is 85 ft. 4 in. E190 Wingspan is 94 ft. 3 inches. The E190 barely fits. From what has been pos
191 sunking737 : Red eyes are very popular on the west coast. When we lived in LA in the 70's we always took the red eye from LAX to MSP. We would get in around 6am. O
192 Post contains images SANFan : OK Mariner, it's been 3 and a half hours now! (You did say it's been loaded into the booking engine so it is out there for any of us to stumble on, r
193 azstar : You can now check flight status for both YX and F9 flights on F9 website. Maybe that's it.
194 pilotfox : MKE-BKG Starting July 1st
195 jpetekyxmd80 : What is with all these games? You are aware these are discussion forums and you are not hosting American idol, this incessant and unnecessary drama is
196 FL787 : I thought I had given it away:
197 Post contains images mariner : FL787 posted it within minutes after I suggested it. What games? See above. The information was posted for anyone who wanted it - posted by someone e
198 mcg : Frontier service question: Yesterday I travelled TUS to DEN on F9. While boarding my daughter asked the gate agent for a gate check tag to put on her
199 Post contains links and images mariner : And lo - here is the press release today: http://www.earthtimes.org/articles/s...s-branson-mo-service,1291831.shtml "Frontier Airlines, a wholly-owne
200 FL787 : It says MKE-BKG is seasonal but it's a really weird season: July 1-December 15. Good luck to BKG in making this service stick, especially when it oper
201 mariner : I believe that is only as far as the schedule goes. I would be surprised - to the point of falling over in shock - if they don't extend it through Ch
202 FL787 : Then why did they make a point of calling it seasonal then and posting the season? Seems like they could have just extended it now if it's already th
203 mariner : Beyond what I've said, I have no idea. I don't have a crystal ball. I'm not sure how they can keep it going through the real slow season - February/M
204 azstar : You can now check flight status for both YX and F9 flights on F9 website. Maybe that's it. I think it's F9 policy to NOT gate check carry-on size bags
205 FL787 : ATL-BKG is yearround. I think DEN, DFW, and ATL can support BKG yearround but I'm not really convinced that MKE can support BKG at all. We'll see. Ev
206 mariner : I think that may be the key. I'm sure they are keenly aware of what happened with Airtran on MKE-BKG, and they may be leaving all their options open.
207 knope2001 : Just saw a new one on channel 24 during Family Guy Same deal as the Larry commercial where an unseen voice with an accent (Austrailian?) plays a came
208 FL787 : So would I. The lack of connections and the fact it's not a national/recognized carrier have to be hurting it, but they only have 50 seats to fill.
209 mariner : HUF-BKG was cancelled before it began because bookings were so lousy, but is anyone surprised? HUF has no other commercial service. The rest is pure
210 Post contains links mariner : Frontier has expanded the advertising campaign to Indianapolis as well, with the tv commercials: http://www.indystar.com/article/2010...c-revives-warm
211 Post contains links GentFromAlaska : [quote=mariner,reply=209]I would think BKG-BNA might do well and from certain articles I got the impression that GPT-BKG was booking well{quote] It wo
212 LoneStarMike : Branson doesn't allow more than one airline to serve a particular city-pair. (They can do that since they're a private airport not built with public
213 Type-Rated : What type of equipment does Bransonairexpress use? I didn't see it mentioned on their website either.
214 LoneStarMike : This was from the Austin press release back in February: LoneStarmike
215 Post contains images AirframeAS : Ok, Ok.... I'll play nice. But I doubt that the Brazilians were the ones who picked the vomit colored seats for some of the E190's. It would be nice
216 Post contains links mariner : Exclusivity - one carrier per route - is a big part of the deal. However, according to a post in the Branson Air Express thread, the contract only ru
217 kingcavalier : Is it not possible that Chautauqua could fly their E145's on BKG routes if ExpressJet contract is not extended?
218 Post contains links LoneStarMike : I would assume that's the case. Since Frontier is going to serve MKE-BKG, I wonder if they might consider adding a tag onwards to DFW? DFW-BKG-MKE is
219 mariner : I'm sure it is possible. I guess it depends on how those routes have been performing. There is a certain snobbery about Branson, it is dismissed by m
220 FRNT787 : Exactly right. These are the route types I really want Daniel Shurz and the entire team to look at as they expand. Having the Republic E190s and E170
221 mariner : Having started all this, I might as well go on. As I reported at the start of service, the DEN-BKG numbers were slightly surprising, with overbooked
222 USPIT10L : TUS is an Airbus station, so they wouldn't have the yellow valet tags that regional jets need for oversized carryons. She was probably asking for a p
223 rampart : Despite my distaste for checked baggage charges, carrying bags to the gate for a free check is somewhat sneeky, and unfair to other passengers. If sh
224 azstar : Repeated.
225 Post contains images boydatageek :
226 Post contains links mariner : It seems that the tenancy structure at SFO has changed: http://www.sfexaminer.com/opinion/bl...ok-25-airline-leases-93467299.html I don't keep track o
227 LoneStarMike : It sounds to me like Frontier is now considered a signatory carrier at SFO. I don't know how things work in SFO, but here in AUS every airline pays th
228 USPIT10L : You'd be surprised how many people do it, especially on regional flights. Some days we have twice the carryon bags than checked.
229 Post contains links mariner : That makes sense - thanks. Several people have suggested that 250 posts are too many, so I'm using a new cut-off - 225 posts. So here's thread #5: Ne
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