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India Studies 100 Seat Aircraft  
User currently offlineLAXDESI From United States of America, joined May 2005, 5086 posts, RR: 47
Posted (4 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 21 hours ago) and read 5935 times:

India initiates steps to develop first homegrown civil plane. I think they would be better off teaming up with BBD (or Embraer). I believe Embraer is having difficulty getting license to build E190 in China.
http://www1.economictimes.indiatimes...ivil-plane/articleshow/5902923.cms
Quote:
India has initiated steps to build its first indigenous civilian transport aircraft under a public-private partnership project that will be undertaken in a national mission mode.

Government has set up a 15-member high-power committee (HPC) on National Civil Aircraft Development with former ISRO chief G Madhavan Nair as its Chairman for management and development of the key project.

The first meeting of the core team of the committee comprising technologists is scheduled to be held tomorrow at the National Aerospace Laboratory (NAL) in Bangalore to chart out a broad vision for the project, officials said.

"We are looking at developing a 90-100 seater civilian aircraft utilising nationally available talent and industry resources," a senior official involved with the project told media.

9 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently offlinekaitak From Ireland, joined Aug 1999, 12565 posts, RR: 35
Reply 1, posted (4 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 21 hours ago) and read 5896 times:

This is becoming a very crowded market, what with the Embraer 190, Mitsubishi RJ, the Chinese AVIC and the Bombardier C-series. Is there room for all of them? I doubt it.

The other question I would have is whether a 100 seater is right for the Indian market? The only carrier to have operated an aircraft in that size range recently is Paramount and they went belly up. The average size of aircraft in the Indian domestic market seems to be around the 738/320 size and since there is a huge emerging middle class, the emphasis will be on cost and efficiency; I don't see how a 100 seater can be more efficient than a 180 seater. If a proposed 100 seater would work, there would have to be a big market within India, because the international competition against such hugely well known and respected names as Bombardier and Embraer, would be cut-throat.


User currently offlineLAXDESI From United States of America, joined May 2005, 5086 posts, RR: 47
Reply 2, posted (4 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 21 hours ago) and read 5862 times:

Quoting kaitak (Reply 1):
I don't see how a 100 seater can be more efficient than a 180 seater.

True. It would not work on major city sectors.

Quoting kaitak (Reply 1):
If a proposed 100 seater would work, there would have to be a big market within India, because the international competition against such hugely well known and respected names as Bombardier and Embraer, would be cut-throat.

Agree.

There may be a market to link second tier cities to major hubs. But then again, why would an Indian carrier buy this proposed aircraft when they could look choose products from well established manufacturers with a larger range of aircraft that will have a higher residual value.

Unlike China, the GOI is not in a position to force this proposed aircraft on private carriers. I hope India goes for an alliance with BBD or Embraer.


User currently offlineexFATboy From United States of America, joined Jul 2003, 2974 posts, RR: 9
Reply 3, posted (4 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 21 hours ago) and read 5820 times:

Quoting kaitak (Reply 1):
This is becoming a very crowded market, what with the Embraer 190, Mitsubishi RJ, the Chinese AVIC and the Bombardier C-series. Is there room for all of them? I doubt it.

Don't forget Sukhoi and the Russian one that looks like a two-engined BAC 146 (can't remember the name right now.)
And, of course, Rekkof... (I'll be nice and forgo my usual skeptical remarks.)

Unless India expects a lot of growth in service to smaller regional airports in the outlying areas, the domestic market seems limited, and that export market is awfully crowded. Just doesn't seem like a prudent investment.

OTOH, a partnership with one of the bigger players, to establish the industry with an eye towards an eventual indigenous product, could be a good idea.


User currently offlinetharanga From United States of America, joined Apr 2009, 1865 posts, RR: 1
Reply 4, posted (4 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 21 hours ago) and read 5813 times:

Let's see. India's record developing home-grown aircraft if mixed.

Are they willing to take any foreign partner? If not, that's misplaced pride. Even Boeing does not insist on their planes being totally homegrown. Why should India?


User currently offlineVIDP From India, joined Feb 2010, 161 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (4 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 10 hours ago) and read 5488 times:

Quoting kaitak (Reply 1):
The other question I would have is whether a 100 seater is right for the Indian market?

Civil Aviation in India is not just DEL,BOM,CCU,BLR,HYD and MAA airports but actually more than that. If you have a look at the AAI (Airport Authority of India) website you will come to know lots of other airports which are operating and further lots of them which are not being utilized. With an economy on the rebound we are witnessing a demand from these tier 2 cities for air connectivity. Hence there is no doubt that there is a demand for a 100 seater aircraft.

Besides as per the current tax structure its cheaper to operate ATR,s and CRJ,s because there is a uniform sales tax of 4% on ATF which they buy while the same varies from state to state in case of A320/B737 series which are commonly used on the domestic routes. And this has primarily done to promote connectivity.


User currently offlineLAXDESI From United States of America, joined May 2005, 5086 posts, RR: 47
Reply 6, posted (4 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 9 hours ago) and read 5454 times:

Quoting VIDP (Reply 5):
Besides as per the current tax structure its cheaper to operate ATR,s and CRJ,s because there is a uniform sales tax of 4% on ATF which they buy while the same varies from state to state in case of A320/B737 series which are commonly used on the domestic routes. And this has primarily done to promote connectivity.

This I did not know. However, it is risky to launch an aircraft based on current tax policy on ATF.

Quoting VIDP (Reply 5):
With an economy on the rebound we are witnessing a demand from these tier 2 cities for air connectivity. Hence there is no doubt that there is a demand for a 100 seater aircraft.

I concur that demand from tier 2 cities will continue to grow. I expect to see a doubling of air traffic by 2020 based on expected 7% growth in the Indian economy. There may be demand for 100 seater aircraft, but not enough to justify launching it for just the Indian market.

I still think India needs to consider an alliance with BBD or Embraer.


User currently offlineaviationbuff From India, joined Mar 2008, 1427 posts, RR: 3
Reply 7, posted (4 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 8 hours ago) and read 5391 times:

Quoting LAXDESI (Thread starter):
"We are looking at developing a 90-100 seater civilian aircraft utilising nationally available talent and industry resources," a senior official involved with the project told media.

90-100 seater and what happens to the recently murmured 70 seat turboprop.

India unveils details of indigenous 70-seat turboprop
India Unveils Details Of Its 70-seat Turboprop (by aviationbuff Mar 8 2010 in Civil Aviation)



User currently onlinelightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 13440 posts, RR: 100
Reply 8, posted (4 years 6 months 3 weeks 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 5151 times:
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Quoting aviationbuff (Reply 7):
India unveils details of indigenous 70-seat turboprop

The turboprop makes more sense to me. There is demand for new design turboprops in today's oil environment.

Quoting kaitak (Reply 1):
This is becoming a very crowded market

Too crowded. There is no business case for a new 100 seat jet. Turboprop... different market.

At this juncture, the 'window' to enter the single isle market has closed for a decade (with a turbofan/GTF). Between a re-engined E-jet (bound to happen prior to prior to the Indian jet EIS), C-series, MRJ, ARJ-21, and elusive Superjet... (Your list plus the Superjet), I agree there is no market.

Lightsaber



Societies that achieve a critical mass of ideas achieve self sustaining growth; others stagnate.
User currently offlineGolfOscarDelta From India, joined Feb 2008, 169 posts, RR: 0
Reply 9, posted (4 years 6 months 3 weeks 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 5055 times:

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 8):
At this juncture, the 'window' to enter the single isle market has closed for a decade (with a turbofan/GTF). Between a re-engined E-jet (bound to happen prior to prior to the Indian jet EIS), C-series, MRJ, ARJ-21, and elusive Superjet... (Your list plus the Superjet), I agree there is no market.

Forget a market, i think India's aim in all this is just an exercise in building a "large" aircraft. Most aircraft built in India are just that; BUILT under license from some other manufacturer viz. Sukhoi, Mig, Mirage jets and the Do-228. The largest civil aircraft that has been designed in India upto this point in the Saras. This whole program to build a regional turboprop is more of a homework exercise to acquire the capability and skill set necessary to be able to build and integrate a large aircraft (larger than Saras is what i mean by large). I only hope it goes well and a good set of subcontractors are formed/arise from this exercise. TATA is already setting up units to build AW and Sikorsky helos and Mahindra just acquired Gippsland with an intention of designing and producing a small GA aircraft and another to compete with the Caravan. Mahindra has also claimed that they want to be the Embraer of India.

Even if they manage to produce an excellent aircraft far ahead of anything Embraer or BBD offers, and if they manage to establish good service centers etc., they will still have to wait a decade or two to establish a presence and a good reputation (which is pretty much everything in this business). Considering this i don't see how the first Indian designed and built aircraft is going to make any money at all.

So considering all this i see this whole regional turboprop program as a program to
1. Acquire skill set and capabilities in integration of a "large" aircraft (for NAL / HAL)
2. To establish a set of good and reliable subcontractors (HAL already has this with their various programs but i see this more as a boost to TATA, Mahindra and the few other companies who have suddenly found themselves rich in the last decade and are trying to enter the aerospace business viz. GMR, Reliance etc.)
3. Supply chain study and experimentation

... and i assume the Chinese are doing the same with their whole ARJ, 919 thing.


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