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The Tide Slowly Turning In Hawaiian's Favor....  
User currently offlinenetjetsintl From United States of America, joined Jul 2009, 593 posts, RR: 0
Posted (4 years 5 months 2 weeks 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 15311 times:

They fly out of leisure market, lots of competition and managed to make money the first qtr. 2010, HNL-SYD seems to be all right, they just landed rights for HNL-HND and gotten their first A330....

as someone who sympathises with the underdog, I find myself now pulling for Hawaiian... what's next for them??? any other long-haul markets they might look at???

TPE, HKG, PVG, PEK, AKL, MEL ??



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your opinion?

46 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineSTT757 From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 16883 posts, RR: 51
Reply 1, posted (4 years 5 months 2 weeks 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 15174 times:

Quoting netjetsintl (Thread starter):
what's next for them??? any other long-haul markets they might look at???

TPE, HKG, PVG, PEK, AKL, MEL ??

JFK, ORD, DEN, YVR, AKL, MEL, BNE, CNS, GUM, LGW/LHR, NGO, KIX, ICN.



Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
User currently offlineAirport From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 2, posted (4 years 5 months 2 weeks 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 15101 times:

If I were in HA's position, I would be extremely cautious not to overexpand. Overexpansion has historically been the killer of even the most profitable airlines who, in some ways, let the success get to their heads. Conservative, but very thoughtful growth is the way to go. I'd venture to say that anything else is just too risky.

That said, even though they directly compete with my two favorite carriers, I must really applaud HA. Unlike many US airlines, they really seem to know what they're doing and the payoff has been grand. I would love to see them eventually expand into the cities you mention, but like I say, I think conservative but thoughful growth is the way to go.

But of course, there are exceptions, such as Allegiant. In any case, what they've been doing has worked, and all I can say is that I really hope to give HA a try someday.

Cheers!
Anthony/Airport


User currently offlineTomassjc From United States of America, joined Jan 2010, 884 posts, RR: 2
Reply 3, posted (4 years 5 months 2 weeks 1 day 20 hours ago) and read 15014 times:
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Quoting netjetsintl (Thread starter):
as someone who sympathises with the underdog

Hard for me to think of them as the underdog. They are making money, have a great product, and a strong inter island network.. I am sure that HND will be a success. My experiences with HA have been great!

Quoting Airport (Reply 2):
I think conservative but thoughful growth is the way to go.

Agreed. Just like my favorite carrier.   



When once you have tasted flight, you will forever walk the Earth with your eyes turned skyward -Leonardo DaVinci
User currently offlinePacNWJet From United States of America, joined Sep 2000, 980 posts, RR: 0
Reply 4, posted (4 years 5 months 2 weeks 1 day 20 hours ago) and read 14950 times:

Quoting STT757 (Reply 1):
Quoting netjetsintl (Thread starter):
what's next for them??? any other long-haul markets they might look at???

TPE, HKG, PVG, PEK, AKL, MEL ??

JFK, ORD, DEN, YVR, AKL, MEL, BNE, CNS, GUM, LGW/LHR, NGO, KIX, ICN.

I have a different thought: Why not add non-stop flights from cities already served on the U.S. mainland to Maui (OGG), Kona (KOA), and Kauai (LIH)? Hawaiian already has non-stop flights to Honolulu (HNL) and Maui from Seattle, Portland, and San Diego as well as non-stops to HNL from Sacramento, Oakland, San Francisco, San Jose, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, and Phoenix, so it already has a presence in those cities. Adding new cities to the route system adds all sorts of costs that would not be incurred by adding new services to cities it currently serves.

The obvious downside to adding additional Hawaiian destinations to cities already served from the mainland could threaten to cannibalize some of Hawaiian's inter-island operations since passengers from the mainland would not have to connect through Honolulu to other places in Hawaii. Still, it seems like there is room to grow from flights from existing mainland cities to islands in Hawaii not currently served by non-stops on HA.


User currently offlineCXA330300 From South Africa, joined May 2004, 1563 posts, RR: 2
Reply 5, posted (4 years 5 months 2 weeks 1 day 20 hours ago) and read 14738 times:

I could see services to YVR starting in the near future. I could also see services to ICN, although that's more of a long shot.


The sky is the limit as long as you can stay there
User currently offlinePacNWJet From United States of America, joined Sep 2000, 980 posts, RR: 0
Reply 6, posted (4 years 5 months 2 weeks 1 day 19 hours ago) and read 14673 times:

Quoting CXA330300 (Reply 5):
I could see services to YVR starting in the near future. I could also see services to ICN, although that's more of a long shot.

Hawaiian already has a code-share arrangement with Korean Air on flights between HNL and ICN. Flights carry a HA flight number and are operated by KE.


User currently offlinePA110 From United States of America, joined Dec 2003, 2008 posts, RR: 23
Reply 7, posted (4 years 5 months 2 weeks 1 day 19 hours ago) and read 14651 times:
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Quoting netjetsintl (Thread starter):

I'm very happy for them, and hope they will continue to do well in a very challenging and competitive landscape.

In your photo tribute, you missed their original, and personally, I think their most beautiful widebody...

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Photo © Darrel W. Duarte




It's been swell, but the swelling has gone down.
User currently offlineLHCVG From United States of America, joined May 2009, 1600 posts, RR: 2
Reply 8, posted (4 years 5 months 2 weeks 1 day 19 hours ago) and read 14471 times:

Quoting STT757 (Reply 1):
JFK, ORD, DEN, YVR, AKL, MEL, BNE, CNS, GUM, LGW/LHR, NGO, KIX, ICN.

Is the HI market rich enough that HA could make ORD work with the stiff competition from UA on that route? IIRC someone mentioned the other day that UA carries more pax than anyone to HI, so I'm curious if directly competing with UA will be a good idea. On the West Coast, I could see the O&D being so high that everyone can get a piece of the action, but from ORD?

Quoting PacNWJet (Reply 4):
I have a different thought: Why not add non-stop flights from cities already served on the U.S. mainland to Maui (OGG), Kona (KOA), and Kauai (LIH)? Hawaiian already has non-stop flights to Honolulu (HNL) and Maui from Seattle, Portland, and San Diego as well as non-stops to HNL from Sacramento, Oakland, San Francisco, San Jose, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, and Phoenix, so it already has a presence in those cities. Adding new cities to the route system adds all sorts of costs that would not be incurred by adding new services to cities it currently serves.

The obvious downside to adding additional Hawaiian destinations to cities already served from the mainland could threaten to cannibalize some of Hawaiian's inter-island operations since passengers from the mainland would not have to connect through Honolulu to other places in Hawaii. Still, it seems like there is room to grow from flights from existing mainland cities to islands in Hawaii not currently served by non-stops on HA.

As someone pointed out hte other day, HA has specifically avoided such a strategy, but I have to believe it can work given that at least DL and UA serve most of the big Hawaiian islands from the mainland (I think they both serve HNL, OGG, KOA, and LIH, but I could be wrong). =


User currently offlineN471wn From United States of America, joined Dec 2003, 1561 posts, RR: 2
Reply 9, posted (4 years 5 months 2 weeks 1 day 18 hours ago) and read 14333 times:
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Quoting Airport (Reply 2):
If I were in HA's position, I would be extremely cautious not to overexpand. Overexpansion has historically been the killer of even the most profitable airlines who, in some ways, let the success get to their heads. Conservative, but very thoughtful growth is the way to go. I'd venture to say that anything else is just too risky.

Well they are following your advice and in so doing they are letting others come into their mainland markets to replace Aloha and ATA. The problem with being conservative is that the rest of the airline world does not respect it and it may be best to move closer to more rather than less seats. The State of Hawaii has been very vocal about the loss of airline seats to and from the mainland and other carriers are considering moving in. Montgomery Ward's took a conservative approach to more stores afer the end of WW II and Sears expanded like hell---who is stilll with us?


User currently offlinechepos From Puerto Rico, joined Dec 2000, 6225 posts, RR: 11
Reply 10, posted (4 years 5 months 2 weeks 1 day 18 hours ago) and read 14293 times:

HA is a conservative carrier I don't see them expanding like crazy just because they can. The YVR market would be tricky as they would face competition from AC and WS (two fierce competitors). I can possibly see HA adding DEN (with the 763) and maybe an East cost destination (JFK being my guess). I'm not sure HA would like to go head to head with UAL in their home turf.
Two thumbs up to Hawaiian!!!!!!

Regards,

Chepos

[Edited 2010-05-09 10:50:19]


Fly the Flag!!!!
User currently offlineCrosscheck007 From Poland, joined Jan 2010, 278 posts, RR: 2
Reply 11, posted (4 years 5 months 2 weeks 1 day 18 hours ago) and read 14228 times:

Quoting N471wn (Reply 9):
Montgomery Ward's

Let's be fair though, they were still around until 2000. It's not like it instantly doomed them.

Cheers,

007



Je l'attends pas un homme. J'apporte le parti, j'apporte le feu d'artifice.
User currently offlinemultimark From Canada, joined Jul 2006, 796 posts, RR: 0
Reply 12, posted (4 years 5 months 2 weeks 1 day 18 hours ago) and read 14167 times:

Quoting chepos (Reply 10):
HA is a conservative carrier I don't see them expanding like crazy just because they can. Tthe YVR market would be tricky as they would face competition from AC and WS (two fierce competitors).

Not to mention Allegiant when they start HI service from BLI...


User currently offlinenetjetsintl From United States of America, joined Jul 2009, 593 posts, RR: 0
Reply 13, posted (4 years 5 months 2 weeks 1 day 14 hours ago) and read 13723 times:

Everybody keeps on saying "conservative growth" is the way to go.....By "conservative" you guys mean only U.S?? Care to elaborate

Personally i think one day we will see Hawaiian flying to either TPE, PVG or PEK... just my opinion


User currently offlinechepos From Puerto Rico, joined Dec 2000, 6225 posts, RR: 11
Reply 14, posted (4 years 5 months 2 weeks 1 day 12 hours ago) and read 13383 times:

By conservative I mean they will not be sending planes to every corner of planet earth just because they have the equipment. For example, a conservative HA will not be opening a flight between HNL and GDL, the equipment most probably would make it, but would it make sense to operate the route (not really).

Regards,

Chepos



Fly the Flag!!!!
User currently offlineUAL747DEN From United States of America, joined Dec 2003, 2392 posts, RR: 11
Reply 15, posted (4 years 5 months 2 weeks 1 day 11 hours ago) and read 12494 times:

HA is doing good because they do not have to compete like the mainland carriers do. As more and more airlines start service to the islands HA will either have to change or will suffer the same fate as other niche airlines who were invaded by carriers with lower costs. HA is very fortunate to still be in a position where they can charge a fare that actually covers their costs, when the airlines with much lower costs come in and fares plummet they will be in the same position as everyone else looking for those precious business passengers that will keep the airline alive.


/// UNITED AIRLINES
User currently offline0NEWAIR0 From United States of America, joined May 2007, 939 posts, RR: 0
Reply 16, posted (4 years 5 months 2 weeks 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 12137 times:

Quoting UAL747DEN (Reply 15):
HA is doing good because they do not have to compete like the mainland carriers do. As more and more airlines start service to the islands HA will either have to change or will suffer the same fate as other niche airlines who were invaded by carriers with lower costs. HA is very fortunate to still be in a position where they can charge a fare that actually covers their costs, when the airlines with much lower costs come in and fares plummet they will be in the same position as everyone else looking for those precious business passengers that will keep the airline alive.

        

Quoting PacNWJet (Reply 4):
I have a different thought: Why not add non-stop flights from cities already served on the U.S. mainland to Maui (OGG), Kona (KOA), and Kauai (LIH)? Hawaiian already has non-stop flights to Honolulu (HNL) and Maui from Seattle, Portland, and San Diego as well as non-stops to HNL from Sacramento, Oakland, San Francisco, San Jose, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, and Phoenix, so it already has a presence in those cities. Adding new cities to the route system adds all sorts of costs that would not be incurred by adding new services to cities it currently serves.

The obvious downside to adding additional Hawaiian destinations to cities already served from the mainland could threaten to cannibalize some of Hawaiian's inter-island operations since passengers from the mainland would not have to connect through Honolulu to other places in Hawaii. Still, it seems like there is room to grow from flights from existing mainland cities to islands in Hawaii not currently served by non-stops on HA.

Hawaiian is able to operate the widebody service to the islands because they funnel everyone through HNL. If they add non stop service to more Hawaiian cities from the contiguous United States they would not be able to support their current fleet. The A330s would need to go bye bye (either in whole or at least in part) if they change their current hub system.



"The future belongs to those who believe in the beauty of their dreams."
User currently onlinePohakuloa From United States of America, joined Jun 2006, 421 posts, RR: 0
Reply 17, posted (4 years 5 months 2 weeks 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 11991 times:

Quoting LHCVG (Reply 8):
As someone pointed out the other day, HA has specifically avoided such a strategy, but I have to believe it can work given that at least DL and UA serve most of the big Hawaiian islands from the mainland (I think they both serve HNL, OGG, KOA, and LIH, but I could be wrong). =

But what DL and UA do not have are an existing infrastructure to bridge the islands as HA has. If HA did these things, no doubt the flights could be successful, but it would likely require their inter-island operations by so much as 25%-33%. Much of the inter-island traffic is local business people and commuting workers with spikes in family travel on weekends and holidays, but connecting tourists are also nothing so minor that they would consider adding the secondary Hawaiian airports.

Of course that's just one man's opinion.

As for expansion, I think we will see a lot of city pairs open up from HNL, but the rate of their additions would be conservative at best. As many have pointed out, they haven't been this successful for no good reason. I'd say markets either demanding cities (due to full existing flights and lack of available seats on existing carriers routes) or currently unserved markets on the east coast USA (IAD and JFK come to mind). YVR may be a possibility if a A332 were to go on the route (mostly due to a better product than currently offered), but I doubt that would happen from my own perspective.

Westbound I'd say there is a good chance for INC, AKL, or perhaps a Chinese city such as PVG or PEK.

What ever it will be (as expansion is definitely on the horizon for HA), I am sure that it will be a very "slow" and well thought out process.



Fast cars and 'Jet A' - such a sweet smell!
User currently offlinecommavia From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 11752 posts, RR: 62
Reply 18, posted (4 years 5 months 2 weeks 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 11866 times:

I agree with what some others have said.

Hawaiian is doing well right now, but that is largely a function of the fact that their longstanding largest competitor in their core interisland market is now gone. They are facing plenty of competition to the mainland, yes, and that will continue to grow.

And as for their high service and on-time rankings - yes, that is impressive, but not earth-shattering considering that Hawaiian is, relatively speaking, a tiny airline that operates a relatively isolated schedule (especially interisland) that is not exposed to some of the more delay-prone, congested, and weather-challenged markets.

I'm not trying to take away from Hawaiian's success. It is a great airline - I love Hawaiian, and have flown them many times, always very happily.

But it's a bit unfair to compare their service rankings or on-time dependability to airlines that are orders of magnitude larger, and operate to hundreds of cities across the U.S. and multiple continents. Hawaiian, with less than 40 airplanes, almost half of which are dedicated solely to flying between 4 islands in the middle of an ocean, is just on a whole different level.


User currently offlineAirport From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 19, posted (4 years 5 months 2 weeks 1 day 9 hours ago) and read 11567 times:

Quoting netjetsintl (Reply 13):
Everybody keeps on saying "conservative growth" is the way to go.....By "conservative" you guys mean only U.S?? Care to elaborate

By conservative I mean cautious. Not growing for the sake of growing and making calculated steps over time. Conservative meaning not ordering 20 more 767s/A330s on top of what they have and will be recieving and expanding like crazy in the short-term to all of the markets listed in the two posts above me.

They can expand wherever they want. If it makes money, it makes money. That's what's important. All I'm saying is that I've read about too many carriers that had a stint of success, and then went way too far too soon and couldn't manage themselves. Many examples show that cautious, conservative, and natural growth is the way to go.

Quoting multimark (Reply 12):
Not to mention Allegiant when they start HI service from BLI...

We need to see what cities they announce for their Hawaii service before we're able to effectively predict how it will affect HA.

Quoting commavia (Reply 18):

And as for their high service and on-time rankings - yes, that is impressive, but not earth-shattering considering that Hawaiian is, relatively speaking, a tiny airline that operates a relatively isolated schedule (especially interisland) that is not exposed to some of the more delay-prone, congested, and weather-challenged markets.

  No one is arguing that.

The fact is they made money. That's the bottom line and everything else is irrelevant. The question is how can they continue being profitable. Who cares about the problems the other airlines face, that's a completely different environment that's irrelevant to them and their business model. They have no reason to focus on that, and none of us have brought it up here.

Quoting commavia (Reply 18):
But it's a bit unfair to compare their service rankings or on-time dependability to airlines that are orders of magnitude larger, and operate to hundreds of cities across the U.S. and multiple continents. Hawaiian, with less than 40 airplanes, almost half of which are dedicated solely to flying between 4 islands in the middle of an ocean, is just on a whole different level.

  Who's comparing? Unless my eyes decieve me, the only person here who brought up on-time dependability and service rankings is you.

Cheers!
Anthony/Airport


User currently onlineMaverickM11 From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 17657 posts, RR: 46
Reply 20, posted (4 years 5 months 2 weeks 1 day 9 hours ago) and read 11499 times:

Quoting netjetsintl (Thread starter):
HNL-SYD seems to be all right

I don't know how SYD and MNL stay around; the fare doesn't seem to be that great and their load factors are very low for such long stage lengths. HA at SYD was/is sustaining a bit of collateral damage in the LAXSYD bloodbath

Quoting netjetsintl (Thread starter):
they just landed rights for HNL-HND

I'm pretty sure this will knock it out of the park from day one.

Quoting UAL747DEN (Reply 15):
HA is doing good because they do not have to compete like the mainland carriers do.

HA dodged several bullets, mainly with AQ and TZ going out of business. Otherwise it'd be quite a different story.



E pur si muove -Galileo
User currently offlinemotorhussy From New Zealand, joined Mar 2000, 3221 posts, RR: 9
Reply 21, posted (4 years 5 months 2 weeks 1 day 9 hours ago) and read 11174 times:

What's next for them? I would say joining an alliance that will help feed traffic to them.


come visit the south pacific
User currently offlineHawaiian763 From Canada, joined May 2009, 259 posts, RR: 0
Reply 22, posted (4 years 5 months 2 weeks 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 10991 times:

Quoting chepos (Reply 10):
The YVR market would be tricky as they would face competition from AC and WS (two fierce competitors).

YVR is a huge market for WS and AC when it comes to Hawaii, but IMO I think that YYC would be a better option for HA than YVR. It would make great seasonal service and would give AC and WS a run considering WS only flies once a week and AC 3 time to OGG and twice to HNL.


User currently offlinenetjetsintl From United States of America, joined Jul 2009, 593 posts, RR: 0
Reply 23, posted (4 years 5 months 2 weeks 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 10920 times:

here's Hawaiian's route map for those interested.... hard to believe Canada is not on there

http://hawaiianairlines.homeandabroad.com/hawaiian/map.ha


User currently offlinedldtw1962 From United States of America, joined May 2009, 393 posts, RR: 0
Reply 24, posted (4 years 5 months 2 weeks 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 10883 times:

Question? Would be good business to go up against UA in ORD/HNL market or DL's DTW/HNL market? Because UA has had that market for so long in ORD. And DL is starting it back up from the NWA days. I think it would be great for
competiton. We in DTW could always use another HNL Non-stop flight and vacation packages.

Or will they (HA) start flying out of anyone of the NYC airports?

Just a question.

Chuck


25 PlanesNTrains : You mean Oakland-Maui? Looking at their route map, they offer nonstop service to 10 west coast cities. I know that adding Oakland-Maui would make you
26 UAL747DEN : I completely agree and it soon WILL be a different story. HA has enjoyed not having to deal a lot of competition and where they do so far no one has
27 mariner : that's a bit poopy - who is making that comparison? They've done good. Why not just celebrate that? I guess they could always open another focus city
28 413X3 : I'm guessing cargo loads are high and they make a lot of money off that. I would like to see HA hook up with a foreign carrier at their hub and fly f
29 Fiedman : Could YYZ be a possible destination for eastern Canada
30 Post contains images surfandsnow : Hawaii is a major tourist destination, but its not just about leisure travel. There is a significant VFR element when it comes to flights to, from, a
31 eta unknown : Canada is a no-go zone- the routes are too seasonal. I've lost count on the number of airlines (North American and South Pacific) that abondoned HNL-Y
32 SolarFlyer22 : I just realized that at various times HA had the L-1011 and the MD-11. How many airlines flew both types? 1% chance of that. Toronto is not a large e
33 netjetsintl : I disagree with the Midwest being much more likely candidates, IAH, DFW, ORD and DEN are well covered already. Let's look at the the Midwestern citie
34 UAL747DEN : I disagree with most things in your post but am only going to respond to this one. I fail to understand why you think it would be best for HA to serv
35 SolarFlyer22 : Yeah, that's a good point. So what else is left? Eastern USA? I think the western USA is pretty much covered already. JFK or IAD would be an interesti
36 cslusarc : Although those cities in the US Interior are covered; MCI, STL and IND are not.
37 airbazar : I have a different take. HA is doing great because they figured out a business model that allows them to be profitable even without the high fares th
38 Post contains images BMI727 : I agree. I don't think that we will ever see, or that anyone at HA thinks that trying to become the Emirates of the Pacific is a good idea. Focus on
39 USAirALB : And may be back...I mean IMO, I think we will see the flight return someday on a seasonal basis.
40 flyibaby : This is a long shot I know, but if their A330's had the legs for JNB, then I know they would be able to pack those aircraft! Seems like right now ever
41 UAL747DEN : You must have a very very different take because I don't agree with your statement at all. I think your statement is the exact opposite of what is re
42 multimark : Why would you assume there is not the same amount of cargo between YVR and HNL? And even in the quietest summer months of Canadian tourism to Hawai'i
43 netjetsintl : well yeah, but most transit through LAX, and SFO, don't they?? where as the Austrlians probably fly direct
44 multimark : I would doubt it. The majority are more likely to be flying AC or WS through Canada.
45 MaverickM11 : I just looked at the latest two months of T100 data and they've been running an average 65% LF in SYD and 73% in MNL for most of 2009. Both of those
46 eta unknown : Cargo... depends how much they're charging per kg. South Africans and Hawaii- nope. The South Africans are going to Thailand because their rand goes f
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