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John Leahy Obviously Sold A Bunch Of A380s. To Who?  
User currently offlinekeesje From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Posted (4 years 7 months 2 weeks 1 day 23 hours ago) and read 45467 times:

Experience shows he takes no risk "predicting" order intake. If he says more then 20 might be possible he has 30 signed contracts in his pocket.

http://www.flightglobal.com/articles...us-raises-a380-order-forecast.html

Another x for BA and / or LH?

ANA preventing the rest of the world taking advantage of JAL's demise?



246 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineBurkhard From Germany, joined Nov 2006, 4409 posts, RR: 2
Reply 1, posted (4 years 7 months 2 weeks 1 day 23 hours ago) and read 45374 times:

Yes, there is no need to say so if nothing is in the pipe - or was he smoking the wrong stuff?

User currently offlineSEPilot From United States of America, joined Dec 2006, 7141 posts, RR: 46
Reply 2, posted (4 years 7 months 2 weeks 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 45292 times:

I'm inclined to believe that you are right, as far as JL not making unfounded predictions. I suspect that he has a very good idea as to who will order them. But until the orders are signed a lot can happen, and I am not at all sure that the economy will not have some nasty surprises for us this year. I think the backlogs for both manufacturers are a lot less secure than we would like to believe. The situation in Greece is the canary in the coal mine, and bodes ill for all of us.


The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
User currently offlineKappel From Suriname, joined Jul 2005, 3533 posts, RR: 17
Reply 3, posted (4 years 7 months 2 weeks 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 45290 times:

Quoting keesje (Thread starter):
If he says more then 20 might be possible he has 30 signed contracts in his pocket.

Well, he has been wrong before. He predicted selling 200 original a350 but fell short. But true.. there must be something coming up. Or at least some serious negotiations (in final stages) for an order, or else he wouldn't make this comment half-way through the year.

Quoting keesje (Thread starter):
Another x for BA and / or LH?

CHRISBA777ER had an interesting analysis in this thread:
ANA Has Renewed Interest In A380 (by cosmofly Apr 30 2010 in Civil Aviation)

Maybe the JJ order is coming sooner? And perhaps the previously rumoured NH order. Perhaps a few top-ups from LH, BA, etc.



L1011,733,734,73G,738,743,744,752,763,772,77W,DC855,DC863,DC930,DC950,MD11,MD88,306,319,320,321,343,346,ARJ85,CR7,E195
User currently offlineKC135TopBoom From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 12181 posts, RR: 51
Reply 4, posted (4 years 7 months 2 weeks 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 45084 times:

Well, the link really doesn't say much.

Quoting keesje (Thread starter):
Experience shows he takes no risk "predicting" order intake. If he says more then 20 might be possible he has 30 signed contracts in his pocket.

As far as John Leahey goes, his track record is not very good at "predicting" orders. We will have to wait and see.

But, the real question is, if Airbus does or will have another 20 firm orders for the A-380, is at what price per airplane and will Airbus make a profit on these airplane sales, or are they selling them at below production costs, again?


User currently offlinescouseflyer From United Kingdom, joined Apr 2006, 3402 posts, RR: 9
Reply 5, posted (4 years 7 months 2 weeks 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 44967 times:

Running the risk of sounding like a Airbus cheerleader - it's very unlikely that they're going to be raising their published forecasts unless something has (or is very close to being signed). With the 4 for VN to be firmed, there's 16 more for us to speculate about.

I'd direct everyone, as Kappell has, to ChrisBA777s excellent analysis on the ANA thread. Personally I've got a feeling for some for SQ and some for someone else but not BA they won't order anything during the strikes as it may weaken their position.


User currently offlineBurkhard From Germany, joined Nov 2006, 4409 posts, RR: 2
Reply 6, posted (4 years 7 months 2 weeks 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 44951 times:

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 4):
But, the real question is, if Airbus does or will have another 20 firm orders for the A-380, is at what price per airplane and will Airbus make a profit on these airplane sales, or are they selling them at below production costs, again?

Oh no, not again. You forgot to mention that there must be 40 free A330s in the package.

The Euro exchange rate has improved a lot in favor of more sales, so don't worry about Airbus profits.


User currently offlinePM From Germany, joined Feb 2005, 7001 posts, RR: 63
Reply 7, posted (4 years 7 months 2 weeks 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 44956 times:

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 4):
if Airbus does or will have another 20 firm orders for the A-380, is at what price per airplane and will Airbus make a profit on these airplane sales, or are they selling them at below production costs, again?

Sigh. Airbus could announce orders for 50 A380s a year for the next two decades and people would still argue that they were giving them away. There isn't much point addressing this sort of bias.

Meanwhile, there are half a dozen ways Airbus could chalk up 20 sales this year.

Here's just one.

Vietnam buy four.
Qatar add four to their existing (small) order.
BA firm up their dozen options.

Bang. Twenty.

Anyone think any of that is far-fetched?


User currently offlinescouseflyer From United Kingdom, joined Apr 2006, 3402 posts, RR: 9
Reply 8, posted (4 years 7 months 2 weeks 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 44877 times:

Quoting PM (Reply 7):
Sigh. Airbus could announce orders for 50 A380s a year for the next two decades and people would still argue that they were giving them away. There isn't much point addressing this sort of bias.

Meanwhile, there are half a dozen ways Airbus could chalk up 20 sales this year.

Here's just one.

Vietnam buy four.
Qatar add four to their existing (small) order.
BA firm up their dozen options.

Bang. Twenty.

Anyone think any of that is far-fetched?

I'm waiting for someone to suggest that airlines only buy A380s because they get free A330s into the bargain 

Not far fetched at all apart from I think that BA would delay ordering until they've sorted their industrial relations issues out. QR is a good call as is JJ mentioned earlier


User currently offlineBurkhard From Germany, joined Nov 2006, 4409 posts, RR: 2
Reply 9, posted (4 years 7 months 2 weeks 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 44813 times:

Well. LH converts 4 options when it receives the first one is impossible ? Now they know what they get.

User currently offlinepar13del From Bahamas, joined Dec 2005, 7663 posts, RR: 8
Reply 10, posted (4 years 7 months 2 weeks 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 44674 times:

My position is what difference does it make if you cannot get a game changer a/c for another 4 or 5 years, to me that is the fallacy of both OEM's and their precious backlogs. Those who already have the a/c will run you out of business before you can compete.
If the A380 is the a/c that pax in the Far East demand, and other airlines decide to jump on the band wagon, how soon can Airbus deliver the number of a/c required to introduce long haul service, assuming we use the formulae of at least 2 or 3 frames, how large is their backlog and how many a/c are they producing per month / year. Did I see an article where they are predicting 20 frames delivered for 2010, I cannot recall if this was an Airbus statement of fact or a desire to ramp up.


User currently offlinecpd From Australia, joined Jun 2008, 4881 posts, RR: 37
Reply 11, posted (4 years 7 months 2 weeks 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 44585 times:

Quoting PM (Reply 7):
Vietnam buy four.
Qatar add four to their existing (small) order.
BA firm up their dozen options.

Vietnam yes, Qatar likely - but BA, I don't think so, not until the strike crisis is over.

I'd pick Qantas to convert their remaining 4 options however (making 20 from them). ANA is another likely one, but depends on how the politics work out.


User currently offlineBurkhard From Germany, joined Nov 2006, 4409 posts, RR: 2
Reply 12, posted (4 years 7 months 2 weeks 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 44547 times:

20 is a fair estimate for this year, and about 30 for next, with 40 the ultimate target. So indeed the back log is about 5 years - if all of the orders really will become sales, which is doubtable in some cases and sure in others. There are deliveries foreseen to Kingfisher in 2014, and the 4 frames for Marsans will not fly for Air Comet that's sure.

User currently offlineKappel From Suriname, joined Jul 2005, 3533 posts, RR: 17
Reply 13, posted (4 years 7 months 2 weeks 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 44547 times:

Quoting scouseflyer (Reply 5):
With the 4 for VN to be firmed

I'd forgotten about this one. Good point, this needs to be firmed yet and is likely part of the 20 aircraft mentioned by Leahy.

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 4):
or are they selling them at below production costs, again?

Have they ever? I doubt they'd willingly do this, as they are still a commercial company. They'd rather not sell any then sell them below cost (unless they can make that up via after sales, but even then.... doubtful)

Quoting PM (Reply 7):
Anyone think any of that is far-fetched?

Not at all, quite reasonable really.



L1011,733,734,73G,738,743,744,752,763,772,77W,DC855,DC863,DC930,DC950,MD11,MD88,306,319,320,321,343,346,ARJ85,CR7,E195
User currently offlinerobffm2 From Germany, joined Dec 2006, 1124 posts, RR: 0
Reply 14, posted (4 years 7 months 2 weeks 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 44315 times:

I think BA is not really in a position to order more right now, see also here:
Gerson&Lehrman: A380 & 787 In Jeopardy At BA (by robffm2 May 11 2010 in Civil Aviation)


User currently offlinePM From Germany, joined Feb 2005, 7001 posts, RR: 63
Reply 15, posted (4 years 7 months 2 weeks 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 44158 times:

Quoting robffm2 (Reply 14):
see also here:

Not a serious analyst.  


User currently offlineBurkhard From Germany, joined Nov 2006, 4409 posts, RR: 2
Reply 16, posted (4 years 7 months 2 weeks 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 43731 times:

The Euro currently is at a minimum, so some, compared to last autumns this makes more than 50 Mio $ savings if ordered now. It is likely to recover once people remember that the debth of the US are higher per almost everything compared to Greece.

User currently offlineUALWN From Andorra, joined Jun 2009, 2973 posts, RR: 2
Reply 17, posted (4 years 7 months 2 weeks 1 day 20 hours ago) and read 43550 times:

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 4):
But, the real question is, if Airbus does or will have another 20 firm orders for the A-380, is at what price per airplane and will Airbus make a profit on these airplane sales, or are they selling them at below production costs, again?

They are giving the 380s away for free, and adding some nice postcards of Toulouse and the surrounding area as a free bonus. Apparently, without the bonus, airlines were still reluctant to accept the free whale-jets. The postcards did the trick.



AT7/111/146/Avro/CRJ/CR9/EMB/ERJ/E75/F50/100/L15/DC9/D10/M8X/717/727/737/747/757/767/777/AB6/310/319/320/321/330/340/380
User currently offlinescouseflyer From United Kingdom, joined Apr 2006, 3402 posts, RR: 9
Reply 18, posted (4 years 7 months 2 weeks 1 day 20 hours ago) and read 43273 times:

Quoting Burkhard (Reply 12):
There are deliveries foreseen to Kingfisher in 2014, and the 4 frames for Marsans will not fly for Air Comet that's sure.

Agreed on the IT birds - can't ever see them being delivered (and have concerns about the VS ones too) but the Gm planes were never firmly ordered so there's no order to cancel / not deliver.


User currently offlinePM From Germany, joined Feb 2005, 7001 posts, RR: 63
Reply 19, posted (4 years 7 months 2 weeks 1 day 20 hours ago) and read 43227 times:

Quoting UALWN (Reply 17):
Apparently, without the bonus, airlines were still reluctant to accept the free whale-jets. The postcards did the trick.

  


User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 31418 posts, RR: 85
Reply 20, posted (4 years 7 months 2 weeks 1 day 20 hours ago) and read 43129 times:
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Airbus and their customers have a pattern of holding off on announcing major orders until the summer airshow, so it stands to reason that Leahey has 20 orders signed and is waiting for Farnborough to announce them.

User currently offlineKC135TopBoom From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 12181 posts, RR: 51
Reply 21, posted (4 years 7 months 2 weeks 1 day 20 hours ago) and read 42355 times:

Quoting Burkhard (Reply 6):
Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 4):
But, the real question is, if Airbus does or will have another 20 firm orders for the A-380, is at what price per airplane and will Airbus make a profit on these airplane sales, or are they selling them at below production costs, again?

Oh no, not again. You forgot to mention that there must be 40 free A330s in the package.

That would sweeten the deal, but put their KC-X bid in doubt.

Quoting Burkhard (Reply 6):
The Euro exchange rate has improved a lot in favor of more sales, so don't worry about Airbus profits.
Quoting Burkhard (Reply 16):
The Euro currently is at a minimum, so some, compared to last autumns this makes more than 50 Mio $ savings if ordered now. It is likely to recover once people remember that the debth of the US are higher per almost everything compared to Greece.

Are you sure? If they have these orders, they would have started to sales process months ago, when the Euro was near its recent peak of about 1 Euro = $1.52 USD. Even today, 1 Euro = about $1.30 USD, so the exchange rate is not as favorable as you think.

http://www.x-rates.com/d/USD/EUR/graph120.html

Yes, the US debt is much higher than that of Greece, or any other individual European Country. Then again, the US economy is some 25 times bigger than any individual country. You need the combined EU ecomony to equil the US economy (actually the EU combined economy is slightly bigger than the US).

Quoting Burkhard (Reply 12):
20 is a fair estimate for this year, and about 30 for next, with 40 the ultimate target. So indeed the back log is about 5 years - if all of the orders really will become sales, which is doubtable in some cases and sure in others.

Hmmm, 90 orders in 5 years, and some 28 A-380s have been delivered in 4 years? The current backlog is much more than 5 years at the current production/delivery rates. Airbus is not close enough to solving the A-380 production/delivery problems than they were 4 years ago. This is why I have doubts about the reported sale of 20 Whale Jets. At the current rate of delivery, it will take Airbus some 32 years to deliver all 200 A-380s currently on order so why would anyone order them if they cannot be asured when they will be delivered?

Quoting Kappel (Reply 13):
Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 4):
or are they selling them at below production costs, again?

Have they ever? I doubt they'd willingly do this, as they are still a commercial company. They'd rather not sell any then sell them below cost

Do you really think Airbus is concerned about profits? Airbus is not a real "commerical company" in the sense that a major portion is owned by the French, German, and Spainish governments.


User currently offlineKappel From Suriname, joined Jul 2005, 3533 posts, RR: 17
Reply 22, posted (4 years 7 months 2 weeks 1 day 19 hours ago) and read 42109 times:

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 21):
Do you really think Airbus is concerned about profits?

Certainly. They have been quite profitable for a while now, with healthy margins. They may be partly government owned, but they are very much a commercial company and not a European welfare/jobs project.

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 21):
Airbus is not close enough to solving the A-380 production/delivery problems than they were 4 years ago.

Airbus seems to think they are moving in the right direction:

http://www.flightglobal.com/articles...-plus-a380-deliveries-in-2010.html



L1011,733,734,73G,738,743,744,752,763,772,77W,DC855,DC863,DC930,DC950,MD11,MD88,306,319,320,321,343,346,ARJ85,CR7,E195
User currently offlinerheinwaldner From Switzerland, joined Jan 2008, 2289 posts, RR: 5
Reply 23, posted (4 years 7 months 2 weeks 1 day 19 hours ago) and read 42107 times:

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 21):
That would sweeten the deal, but put their KC-X bid in doubt.

No, the US ordered 20 Air Force One's and got 180 KC-X for free!


User currently offlineJAAlbert From United States of America, joined Jan 2006, 1624 posts, RR: 1
Reply 24, posted (4 years 7 months 2 weeks 1 day 19 hours ago) and read 41924 times:

Quoting Burkhard (Reply 16):
The Euro currently is at a minimum, so some, compared to last autumns this makes more than 50 Mio $ savings if ordered now.

Yes, but I read someplace that airbus sells its jets in US dollars, but pays its suppliers/employees in euros so a falling euro/rising dollar would be actually good news for Airbus (can anybody confirm this? I could've been dreaming)

Also, Boeing recently announced it was increasing its 777 and 747 production to accommodate increased demand. Order negotiations take months if not years, usually under a cloak of secrecy, so surely A and B must have some information about what is going on behind the scenes that they are not fully sharing with us!


25 Post contains images keesje : I guess they proved excellent aircraft beating performance promises and proving extremely popular by airlines and passengers. Despite some "breakthro
26 pink77W : I can't believe they have only sold 200 after 10yrs.!! How many 747s were sold after 10yrs?
27 Post contains images EA772LR : Very true. Wonder why Boeing doesn't do the same... Would be awesome for the A380 program , but who might these be for? I doubt it's BA. Perhaps more
28 CFBFrame : Could this be driven by the recent update Boeing made during their quarterly update on upcoming widebody orders? Also, could the order be coming from
29 Post contains images Stitch : Boeing used to, but US investors are more interested in the last quarter results than anything else, so Boeing's stock price performs better with 100
30 Asiaflyer : Yes, you are correct. But as Airbus does have a lot of suppliers outside Europe, their payables are to a big extent in USD as well. I would think Air
31 ba319-131 : - The world was a different place,then, you can't really compare to today. The airlines have added so many point to point routes and increased freque
32 Navion : Airbus just took a $25 Billion write-down on the A380 and yet we still debate sales prices. We now have definitive proof they have been selling most o
33 ikramerica : I'm not saying there aren't 20 orders out there, but to claim Leahy is always accurate about his predictions is laughable. The two are not 100% relate
34 columba : Not twenty but 4-5 maybe that could be announced in Farnborough, I can think that LH also was in discusion with Boeing in Hamburg and would announce
35 Kappel : I don't think anyone has ever argued that the a380 is sold at list price, no aircraft is... neither from Airbus nor from Boeing. The question raised
36 ikramerica : Same tired arguments any time anyone dares say Leahy speaks out of his arse sometimes. He's PAID to know more about it than us. But that doesn't mean
37 Post contains images astuteman : Tom Williams isn't known for throwing rash statements around.... Seriously? Again, Tom Williams isn't known for throwing rash statements around. We'l
38 tokolosh : In previous forum discussions KLM has been generally ruled out as a future A380 operator. However, this morning I saw a report in the De Telegraaf new
39 Mortyman : Would the A380 be of any interest to the new United/Continental ?
40 Post contains images lightsaber : But I actually think more demand will be to provide low CASM seats during the premium times. These 'commercially viable times' for flights are far mo
41 Delimit : To clarify this further, many, many historical 747 customers would never have bought them if a smaller plane was available that had the range. The A3
42 Post contains links and images Revelation : http://www.defensenews.com/story.php?i=4616433&c=EUR&s=TOP Maybe it's OA?
43 timboflier215 : I think it would be a really useful plane for some of their routes, but with the CO guys firmly in charge, I reckon the chances of UA/CO ordering it
44 TGV : I assume you mean “25 times bigger than any individual EU country”. What is your measuring tool to define the size of an economy ? According to w
45 Kappel : Never said he's always right, see my quote below: Regardless that he is paid to know more, fact is he DOES know more. And yes, he is sometimes wrong.
46 CFBFrame : CAN WE TALK ABOUT LEAHY AND WHERE WE THINK THE SALES ARE COMING FROM? I wish you guys would move your discussions up a notch and talk about more rece
47 Delimit : Honestly, if you're going to take issue with the A vs. B posting on the thread, you might be better served quoting the post that started it, rather th
48 Post contains images Aesma : I hope Airbus has the exchange rate risk covered. Well, the countries are investors and expect to gain from the investment, just like any investor. A
49 Post contains links Navion : I'm pretty sure I'm sober but here's one (of many) stories on the write-off: http://www.businessweek.com/news/201...uble-decker-dud-fate-update1-.htm
50 KennyK : Could we see some new unexpected customers? I mean Air Austral and Vietnam Airlines were I suspect not on many peoples lists of prospective A380 custo
51 Post contains images epa001 : That would be my assumption as well. Farnborough will be interesting. Hopefully we will see the B787 there as well. That is a ridiculous amount of mo
52 Delimit : The US legacies are doing everything they can to reduce capacity, not add to it. The merger of UA & CO was driven by that. They don't want more s
53 Post contains links keesje : Jet, Iberia, Delta, Air India, SAA, TAM? Maybe a short haul carrier?
54 keesje : Jet, Iberia, Delta, Air India, SAA, TAM? Maybe a short haul carrier? (AF is considering LHR..)
55 Delimit : Jet? The airline that is trying to get rid of the already too large 77Ws it owns because it can't fill them? Delta? The airline who just extended the
56 Post contains images bohica : Boeing lets the customer decide if/when they will announce an aircraft order. Most customers announce the order once it is signed instead of waiting
57 airproxx : Oh come on, did John Leahy really sell anything to anybody?? He's just a european puppet placed here to give a face to something that has not any. Eur
58 Post contains images astuteman : A "write-down" is money that is "written off" as a loss. Airbus have not, and will not, "write down" $25Bn The will (and have) write down $6Bn or $7B
59 Post contains links and images allegro : 20 fits neatly given the data we have so far. 200 sold over 10 years = 20/year ...so right on track. Who is the lucky groom for our bonny bride (she h
60 Post contains images jfk787nyc : I am wondering if it is either DELTA or UNITED
61 EA772LR : This is the real heart breaker to me. It's almost like the A380s biggest enemy has been Airbus themselves (kinda like Boeing with the 787) with produ
62 SolarFlyer22 : BA is far fetched. After the disaster from ash-fest 2010 and a general financial malaise I think its very optimistic to credit them with 12. I'd be s
63 airproxx : Depends on who's looking..
64 keesje : BA, LH and AF didn't bail out Greece and they are part of the global economy. All are healthy enough to order aircraft for 2016 when they need to and
65 Pygmalion : With Air France, KLM group, Etihad, Qatar Airways Ltd. and Virgin Atlantic Airways deferring A380 orders but not widebodies, I dont see why you think
66 UAL747DEN : So you think that the current A380 operators will have the competing carriers out of business in a few years? Thats not going to happen! That is not
67 mutu : That is the most sensible comment on here. neither B nor A is in a position to deliver fames to BA in the short term in any event so the issue is whe
68 Post contains images BMI727 : Not really a fair comparison since the market is a lot different now, and honestly, a lot of those airlines shouldn't have ordered jumbos, but did du
69 airproxx : Really? I thought they'd ordered some 77W before if they'd shown any interest in bigger capacity...
70 Carls : Well if we just start saying that JL is not an european guy but an American guy, I could say that you started your post stating something that is not
71 UALWN : “Blah, blah, blah,” said Richard Aboulafia, vice president of Teal Group, an aerospace analysis company. “The A380 is best regarded as a $25 bi
72 Post contains images lightsaber : I do hope to see that number for your logic is what I was implying. Why would a customer 'top off' an A388 order if they are waiting on their origina
73 YULWinterSkies : Maybe when their competitors will serve their main airports (ORD, SFO, NYC) with A380s. What happened with BA, basically, initially they said no, the
74 SolarFlyer22 : I'm not nearly as optimistic. Even if you take delivery in 2016 that doesn't mean you do the financing in 2016. No, but they ride the tide of the eur
75 Viscount724 : In the 10 years following the 747 launch order in April 1966, there were 303 747 orders (and 278 deliveries).
76 ebbuk : The production woes will not last forever and everyone person with a brain knows that. So come on, engage yours and make some useful contributions
77 BMI727 : Actually I think that financing is finalized pretty close to delivery. I want to say that some deliveries have been delayed or not happened at all be
78 PM : You're tilting at windmills.
79 Post contains images Stitch : That's kind of what I'm thinking. It's not like pricing or financing is fundamentally better now than it was 6-18 months ago. Even if customers feel
80 dfambro : People so easily forget that it took 40+ years and one very major update, some smaller updates, and lots of different configurations, for the 747 to
81 golli : My thoughts exactly !! Now if EK were to order a bunch of Embraers, I'd be all ears. Golli
82 UAL747DEN : Can you explain your position better? How do you expect this to be a cash cow? At what point to you believe they break even?
83 dfambro : Break-even on the whole project is a different concept from whether the program is a big cash generator (ie, cash cow). This is because the losses ac
84 golli : And yet another A380 thread, with the "break-even" fixation. What does it matter now. There is no turning back with the A380!! The start-up cash (and
85 cpd : An A380-800X might be a possibility. The break even is not relevant anymore. Now it is only a matter of forcing Boeing out of the VLA passenger jet m
86 golli : EXACTLY !!!, no if's or but's about it. She's here people, for some decades to come. Personally I'm leaning towards the SUH version. I've lost all fa
87 Cerecl : Compare this thread with the recent 20x777 order speculation thread, the contrast cannot be stronger. Sad, really.
88 SolarFlyer22 : Is there any chance Turkish Airlines is the customer? They seem to be doing well and are mostly an Airbus company. They have pretty good EU relations
89 PM : Their name has come up previously and many think the idea isn't far-fetched. (I'm one of them.) But an order this year may be a bit soon.
90 Post contains images astuteman : Mmmm - I wouldn't be quite so quick to judge.. Will they sell 500? Don't know to be honest (don't actually care, curiously). Go down like Concorde? T
91 BMI727 : It looks like the Europeans are getting better at revolutionizing air travel. Exactly. The money is gone, and any further sales will only improve the
92 Post contains images Northstar80 : TK CEO repeatedly mentioned that the A380 is not a very big airplane for them and are thinking of ordering them (3-5 frames). Even though I think it
93 wukka : We're damn near 100 replies in, and there is absolutely no answer to the topic. Who bought a "bunch of 380s"? Whaaa? You don't know?
94 PanAm_DC10 : Perhaps the deal is yet to be firmed but I'll provide an opinion. Asiana. Regards
95 maxter : ...and which eye you're looking out of...
96 airproxx : I wasn't talking about he's nationality buddy...
97 airproxx : Aaahhh I found it strange that nobody pointed out the "recession thing" as a last argument to explain the mediocrity of the A380 sales. Thanks to be
98 Post contains images Stitch : So I guess that's 18 77Ws and 20 A388s for EK at Farnborough.
99 Delimit : Congrats to Airbus...but yawn. I was hoping for someone new.
100 Post contains images TravelAVNut : That would be the most boring very good news of 2010...
101 Post contains links 474218 : Do Airbus executives actually talk to each other? This was like seven days ago! http://www.tehrantimes.com/index_View.asp?code=218927
102 babybus : Iberia could well do with some for their South America runs. Maybe they brought a number? ANA woudl be good too.
103 A342 : Coming from you, I'm ready to believe that statement. But exactly how many? Can't see them taking more than ten, to be honest.
104 Post contains images Jacobin777 : Unfortunately, still a consistent drag on earnings and resources. RLI does need to be returned (unless its forgiven) which could hurt future cash flo
105 Post contains images lightsaber : I would be floored if Asiana ordered the A380. Happy... just very surprised. Lightsaber
106 Stitch : Same here. They have two 747-400s which I believe fly ICN-JFK and back and the 747-400Ms I believe are being converted to full freighters. OZ already
107 golli : Quite right, but closing the line and trying to forget she ever existed, wont help anyone either, much less the creditors. The "damned if you do damn
108 PanAm_DC10 : Fair point A342. What we should note is that Airbus have increased their sales forecast by 10 frames. Those 10 frames may not be a single order for 1
109 Post contains images A342 : Oh, yes indeed. As soon as that article popped up on flightglobal, I inserted the link into the "ANA has renewed interest in the A380" thread
110 Jacobin777 : The only way I would advocate for closing the line is if there is a chance the line loses money and resources for the next 4-6 years. It needs to be
111 Post contains links and images PM : Forgive me if this has been posted and I missed it in a thread of 100+ posts but I've just read this rather interesting snippet. "Chief Operating Offi
112 Post contains links robffm2 : Your link got truncated somehow, here is the correct link: http://www.businessweek.com/news/201...n-avoid-a380-pitfall-update1-.html And you are corr
113 PM : Thank you. I took it from a secondary source and it may have been corrupted.
114 Nitrohelper : So the business plan is to keep building a current money losing product to prevent your competitor from also building a money losing product, while t
115 timboflier215 : I think the argument runs that had Airbus not built the A380, Boeing would have made enormous sums of money selling the 748i, as that would have been
116 Stitch : If Airbus had never built the A380, I don't see any reason why Boeing would have moved forward with the 747-8. The 777-300ER would have replaced the
117 Post contains images Revelation : I'm kind of disappointed you didn't say the same thing about the post I made for all the wrong reasons! Everyone else raised the specter of Airbus gi
118 timboflier215 : Possibly, although the need for an a/c larger than the 77W is clearly there, so I think Boeing would have updated the 744 in some way. Whether it wou
119 Stitch : It is there, but Revelation summed it up with: Boeing has offered improved 747-400s since the late 1990s, but they have all fundamentally been 747-40
120 Post contains images CHRISBA777ER : Asiana, Emirates and Qatar. Its shaping up to be a very god year. Not bad for a programme that is a dead duck!
121 Post contains images epa001 : Would be very nice. Asiana would be a new customer for the A380 program.
122 Post contains images Stitch : EK is too easy. QR (and EY) has (have) so few they either need to add a bunch more or scrap their order, but with EK adding them by the dozen, I expec
123 Delimit : Funny, I would have thought LAX , unless KE has that market on lockdown.
124 Post contains images Jacobin777 : Maybe 10+5+5 or 5+5+10- or 1+18+1...
125 UALWN : The crisis is anything but "quiet". However, it has been indeed one of the reasons for the lack of orders, both at Airbus and at Boeing. Adding 2006+
126 474218 : Its already ran ten (10) years and they have sold 202 airframes. The chances are fairly good that they will not sell 800 more in the next ten (10) ye
127 timboflier215 : My point was, why take the of being wrong risk at all? Why not just stay quiet and let any orders speak for themselves? Airbus could predict 1000 A38
128 Post contains images lightsaber : I think you might have found the answer. Airbus thinks they'll sell 10, but hey, why not hope for more. I'm expecting much more than 100nm more range
129 Post contains images epa001 : Me too. I guess Tom Williams is conservative now until he and his colleagues know the specific numbers on the 2012 specification A380's. .
130 Stitch : OZ runs a daily 77E (two classes) and daily 744M (three classes). OZ could combine the two flights (they're about four hours apart) into a single A38
131 timboflier215 : Yes, absolutely, I don't believe that had the A380 not existed, then Boeing would simply have sold 747's in their place. But Boeing would still have
132 A342 : They are currently replacing their old 747 classics with used 744s and 772ERs.
133 Nitrohelper : Several years ago (2006?) we had a thread about how many WhaleJets would ultimately be sold. Now with all that has happened in the financial markets t
134 keesje : "Whalejets" ? Do you mean A380s ? I remember threads were flooded with analysts predicting the cancelation by almost all customers of their A380s and
135 474218 : Possible but highly un-likely.
136 Post contains images epa001 : Possibly and probably a very conservative estimate. We will see at least 350 new A380 sales on top of the ones we know now. .
137 CHRISBA777ER : Across the lifetime of the programme I would be very surprised to see the A380 not hit 500 orders.
138 Post contains images Nitrohelper : I thought that would bring up some of the controversy from back then about the "Whalejet " name , I'm sure you remember all those fun discussions...
139 Post contains images astuteman : Me too Unless they've found another 100Nm on top of that.. SQ typically replace their planes within 10 years, I understand, and their 1st delivery wa
140 BMI727 : How many people go from Australia to the eastern US, especially places that aren't New York? I could see maybe a 787, but filling an A380 could be a
141 Post contains links Burkhard : But the overcapacities are flying national, overseas and especially to Asia there will be more capacity needed. You are right. Wenn I look at http://
142 BrouAviation : Or Berlin. EADS is taking losses for quite some time now. And how does the A400M fit into this story?
143 BrouAviation : Will that be of the current version, or the 2nd/3rd/4th generation included?[Edited 2010-05-14 03:52:11 by srbmod]
144 Burkhard : Looking into the Annual Review for 2009, Airbus military is the only loss maker for EADS. Yes, the A400M is a problem for EADS, the A380 no longer is
145 Post contains images PM : Oh, I think it's still very much a "problem" and will remain so until Airbus are turning them out as routinely (if not perhaps quite as frequently!)
146 Post contains links robffm2 : Some better news for the A380 EK to return the A380 to New York: http://www.ainonline.com/news/single...instate-a380-service-to-jfk-24862/ Strong Doll
147 Post contains images epa001 : I have managed to go through that dangerous traffic quite some times. . But you are correct that many accidents happen. Fortunately we have not seen
148 UALWN : It entered service with one (1) unit less than three (3) years ago. Everything is possible. I fail to see the analogy.The real problem child right no
149 474218 : Airbus (EADS) analogy: When you lose money on every A380 built, you can not make a profit by selling more A380's. The manhours required to build an A
150 rheinwaldner : Nobody said that A380 production would loose money per produced copy for a long time. I am not so sure about greece turning their fortune however. II
151 columba : Berlin is an irrelevant air show when it comes to announcing orders, Farnborough is the more prestigious event.
152 Post contains links hloutweg : ...carrying the conversation further away from the original topic into the A380s future, Flight Global reports that Airbus expects to break even with
153 Post contains images EA772LR : I'm convinced Airbus have a magical A380 wand, perhaps from Hogwarts . They're always finding new ways it seems to increase range and efficiency on t
154 Post contains links and images Devilfish : Well, they're looking at five years..... http://www.flightglobal.com/articles...will-break-even-in-five-years.html .....even if they do say so themse
155 tistpaa727 : I hope they are able to. Successful programs breed competition which breeds innovation and more really cool things for us to intelligently discuss. W
156 AustrianZRH : Hush, don't give such misinformation rumors. In fact, it's four firebolts hidden in the engines! Well, at least it should be obvious to the last A380
157 UALWN : It is not obvious to me that Airbus loses money on every 380 built. Do you have a source for this? In any case, as pointed out by others, the whole p
158 Post contains images EA772LR : Indeed, no one an argue that the A380 fulfills it's designed purpose wonderfully. If this pans out as planned, that's good news. Agree
159 Post contains images cosmofly : Assuming A makes 40 a year from this point, 5 year means they think they can break even with 200 frames. So the current backlog, along with the curren
160 frmrCapCadet : I understand that current 380s cost more to make that they are being sold for. check Does this mean that it will be 5 years before they are selling p
161 gemuser : You forgot the 20 or so frames currently in service, so its saying about 220 - 240 frames to break even. A few more than currently announced orders.
162 Post contains images Nitrohelper : I believe that's when the "buy a 380, and get a free 320" summer sale deal ends... , but I hear that the "order five 380s and get a 330 for free" spe
163 Stitch : So is Airbus formally revising their original guidance that "program break even" was north of 400 frames or is this "break even" number that Hans Pete
164 cosmofly : Airbus acaba de tomar un $ 25 mil millones rebaja en el A380! S I did not forget the 20+ frames shipped. I also assume Airbus can immediately deliver
165 Post contains images par13del : Funny how what was once touted a a 747 / 777 competitor just got lost in the shuffle, ah well, at least a couple folks remembered before me that Airb
166 dfambro : I interpret Hans Peter Ring to be saying that they'll have enough orders on the books within 5 years to achieve break even. That is a plausible inter
167 Stitch : That interpretation sounds sensible.
168 Baroque : Set your own. That is what Airbus will do, but they will not tell us what it is. Why would they?/? The statement in the link almost certainly does no
169 Post contains images cpd : Doesn't matter. It could be a rubbish plane and unsafe, just as long as it makes break-even to satisfy the a.net hordes. I believe the 787 is Boeing'
170 BMI727 : There will probably still be some, but I would still contend that there will be fewer than if the 787 arrived on time, that is right on the brink of
171 XT6Wagon : I'd believe that it will be 5 years before the A380 adds more than it takes away per frame. The production issues are massively increasing the cost p
172 Post contains images astuteman : My interpretation of that is that they're saying that in 5 years time they will have secured the orders that lead to a break-even, as opposed to havi
173 Post contains images PM : Never one to do things the easy way! Ah, but they will, and they do.
174 Post contains images epa001 : Though it is always a bit speculative, I believe this interpretation seems the most likely one. Which will make the future of the A380 brighter and b
175 Revelation : Despite his title of COO, JL is first and foremost a salesman, an excellent one at that. Salesmen know to try to create a sense of positive momentum
176 hloutweg : This means they will be breaking even in 5 years, in other words, all development costs and cost over runs, including the penalties incurred in the d
177 Jacobin777 : Lately I believe neither Boeing nor Airbus...call me a skeptic.
178 474218 : It is thinking like this that has got our country (and companies like General Motors, Douglas, Fokker, Rover, etc) in such sorry financial shape.
179 XT6Wagon : no, no possible way. They won't take in as much revenue as they had development costs.
180 golli : The governments in these cases, will have to assess each situation separately. What are the consequences of letting said company's die. Will they hav
181 Stitch : Getting back to the topic at hand, at least on a parallel track to it, no airline that ordered the A380-800 did so because their traffic projections s
182 474218 : You omitted the most likely scenario: The A380 program continues at a very low sales rate, five to ten a year and production rate, twenty or less a y
183 frmrCapCadet : The 380 fills an important niche better than any other plane. It will sell for a long time. It will in a few years produce a poitive cash flow on each
184 Post contains images golli : What you describe here above, is more or less in my option nr: 1 , although less bleak I'll admit. I've seen so many negative posts about the A380 pr
185 Post contains images Cerecl : It is interesting to read this on A.net on a constant basis. A380 may never return a profit, but it does not mean the whole program needs to be stopp
186 LAXDESI : Interesting. I have used 120 seat differential between A388 and B748 for my analysis--based on EK claim. My model shows A388 handily beating B748 wit
187 PW100 : However, it could also be argued that without the monumental production SNAFU, the A380 program by now would have been pretty close to reaching break
188 UALWN : Don't people get tired or writing this utter rubbish again and again? I'm surely tired of reading it... The quality of the aircraft is solid, and is
189 Post contains links and images Revelation : I think you need to put this into context. The A380 is well past the point of no return, the money is already spent, and it's just one product in fam
190 Stitch : Well it certainly seems optimistic now, doubly so with the success of the 777-300ER and the projected success of the A350-1000. That being said, Boei
191 474218 : Why do you think Airbus is in business, they must make a profit or that go out of business.
192 Post contains images AustrianZRH : But the development and delay cost should be paid and written off by now. And I don't fall for the a.net mantrum that every A380 is sold for less tha
193 speedbird9 : Since the Lib Dem - Conservative government coming into place and the most likley cancellation of LHR's 3rd runway i think BA might order some A380's
194 Revelation : Yes, and they have done so with very good regularity, and are poised to continue doing so. For every thing that's now losing money (A380 and A440M co
195 kanban : the same should be said of airlines.... however nobody pays attention, the just merge with another struggling airline... if the A380 is profitable fo
196 Post contains images Nitrohelper : How many do you think will be flying in 2030 ? Will there be more than than 500 to beat the "break even" that was rumored to be over 400+ a few years
197 frmrCapCadet : Airbus acaba de tomar un $ 25 mil millones rebaja en el A380! S I think the realistic most pessemistic view would be: Up to 50 cancellations out of cu
198 golli : Yes, but every business venture has it's lead time, and the air-framer business happens to be among the longest under the sun, you just don't demand
199 Post contains images Cerecl : Simple really, If you are a grocery shop owner and you bought a quantity of apples to sell. Unfortunately after selling the apples for a while you fo
200 Post contains links PM : Oh dear. Look what I found... "It [the A380] is already a generation behind the 777-300ER in terms of engine technology, freight capability and perfo
201 Post contains images golli : What kind of "company" is this Gerson Lehrman Group ?? Nevermind who wrote this piece, but publishing it This analysis is as short as my 8 year old da
202 Nitrohelper : From their position in the article ,I'd say that they either work for Boeing ,or own a lot of Boeing stock...
203 474218 : Lets modify your scenario so it better fits the aircraft manufacturing business: You are a grocery shop owner and you want to sell apples. First you
204 jetfuel : Analyse why the apples are not selling? 1. Is there no demand for apples? 2. Is there something wrong with your apples? 3. Are your apples too expens
205 XT6Wagon : The airlines were seeing premium traffic problems long before the downturn. The bubbles created lots of private jet sales, fractional ownership progr
206 kanban : so after 205 posts and the question still is who does Leahy think he sold some planes to... since there are only wild speculations that have lead to t
207 jetfuel : He hasn't. The economics with the current configurations is just not enough income to justify the capital cost over say a 773. IMO airlines need to g
208 PM : Because the speculation is entertaining. It's fun and it's harmless.
209 Cerecl : Depends on if you can do something else with that piece of land you bought, which is why it is not exactly a parallel situation with the A380 program
210 474218 : This is where you got it wrong, like the apple orchard, Airbus's A380 investment can only be paid for by profits from sales. There have not been suff
211 gemuser : Of course there have. Airbus has sold and are CURRENTLY selling, all combined, thousands of A320, A330, A340, A350 & A380 airframes. More than en
212 Post contains images golli : You might or you might not, get a concrete answer to that question here on A.net. But you get a lot of speculation. And secondly, if you start a new
213 astuteman : Says who? Again, says who? That's not what SQ say... Rgds
214 Burkhard : That is why Singapore Airlines, one of the if not the best airline of the world, has replaced its B777-300ER on the runs to Paris and Zurich by A380s
215 Post contains links and images keesje : http://www.fleetbuzzeditorial.com went to a Airbus press conferenece and got a few slides; I think most prospects can be found among the 20 biggest in
216 Cerecl : Did I? "Paid" simply refers to the process of money and its previous owner parting company, it carries no meaning on if the object or project the mon
217 keesje : In the price of every A380 a part goes to pay off R&D. Even of loss making A380. It's build in in the price.
218 Revelation : Maybe in your mind. What if I also own peach and pear orchards that are wildly profitable and I buy into an apple orchard that currently isn't profit
219 keesje : I was talking about AA (the previous sentense). Buth now you mention it 4 of the five biggest international carriers ordered A380s. Not in this line
220 Post contains images Jacobin777 : ...but there lies part of the problem. According to Airbus themselves, the A380 program are "dragging" down earnings and resources. I understand part
221 Baroque : Now we are talking. Except you missed out the pineapple field. That produces the fruits that a number of critics appear to think that Airbus gets the
222 DLPMMM : Experience shows just the opposite in that he almost never meets his sales projections, especially for the A380. The entire premise of this thread is
223 Post contains images EA772LR : What in the hell was that guy smoking?? A generation behind in engine tech? Freight capability isn't judged in terms of generations... If the A380 wa
224 gemuser : Of course. Like I said maybe the money COULD have been spent better elsewhere, but Airbus made their choice, based, I'm sure on the best information
225 AirlineCritic : Oh. I think we have found out that the GLG analyst is not really an analyst, but perhaps just a teenager with problems, an a.net poster with an attit
226 Post contains links robffm2 : According to aero.de Thomas Enders said in an interview with the newspaper Die Welt to sell at least 20 A380 this year. He also that that Airbus will
227 Post contains images EPA001 : That is more or less a confirmation. . Now we only want to know to whom they have sold/will sell new A380's. Most of them will be hired in Hamburg. T
228 XT6Wagon : Of what? They have announced they should sell X A380 in years past and failed to hit 1/2 thier expected numbers. Hint: the planes are not sold until
229 Stitch : Either way we should know next month at the air show.
230 Post contains images Baroque : You are probably correct in all your suggestions there AirlineCritic. I note that there have been "a few" deletions that have got rid of some of the
231 Post contains links and images N14AZ : From the production and delivery thread: A380 Production Thread #6 (by AeroplaneFreak Feb 15 2010 in Civil Aviation) I would assume that only the curr
232 scouseflyer : I think that this points towards SQ or yet another EK order (!) but KE have placed two follow on orders before they got their first bird so they may
233 Burkhard : So a Farnborough without any A380 order would be disappointing!
234 Post contains links PM : Chairman and CEO Wolfgang Mayrhuber told ATWOnline that the carrier will "hopefully yes" order more A380s, for which it has 10 options. He said the or
235 CHRISBA777ER : Its Asiana and top ups for two of the Gulf region majors. NH are taking the 748i last I heard. Glad to see they are taking bigger planes I guess.
236 Post contains images AustrianZRH : Nice to hear, hopefully you're right . I'm an Airbus fan so I hope for every A380 order possible, but nothing beats the 748i in looks when rotating o
237 robffm2 : I wonder how many VLA LH really needs. They will have a fleet of 15 A380 and 20 748i are also ordered. I was always a little sceptical about the 748i
238 Post contains images CHRISBA777ER : Cant agree mate - A345 all the way. Nothing else comes close.
239 Stitch : Any idea where OZ would deploy them? Sending them to any current 744 market (LAX, JFK) is going to result in a significant capacity jump. And what of
240 astuteman : Does that classify as a "change of tune" from last year's rumours? Rgds
241 CHRISBA777ER : "Its Boeing's to lose" says my (usually impeccably well informed) source. There will be huge dramas if they order the Airbus and I cant help but thin
242 Stitch : Looking at their timetable, OZ flies a 4x weekly 77E between ICN and LHR. An A380-800 would offer up to twice as many seats per flight, so if they we
243 Post contains links scbriml : Much more recently than that, astuteman. Try just last month for news of renewed interest in the A380:
244 Stitch : My sources tell me NH (and JL) can "name their own price" (within reason) for a 747-8 and I expect Leahey is ready, willing and able to match any Boe
245 Post contains images astuteman : My bad. I recall the "debate" now.... That wouldn't be surprising I guess.... Nice position to be in.. Can I name my price? Rgds
246 Post contains links SA7700 : This thread will be locked for further contributions. Any posts added after the threadlock, will be removed for housekeeping purposes only. Part 2 can
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