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Gerson&Lehrman: A380 & 787 In Jeopardy At BA  
User currently offlinerobffm2 From Germany, joined Dec 2006, 1117 posts, RR: 0
Posted (4 years 3 months 2 weeks 5 days 22 hours ago) and read 21337 times:

Gerson Lehrman Group is quite pessimistic about BA's orders:

http://www.glgroup.com/News/Airbus-A...ardy-At-British-Airways-48290.html

105 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlinemiller22 From United States of America, joined Nov 2000, 717 posts, RR: 4
Reply 1, posted (4 years 3 months 2 weeks 5 days 22 hours ago) and read 21261 times:

This group has some of the most over-sensational writers in the industry. I'll wait until somebody with clout reports the story before I begin to consider it's ramifications.

User currently offlinePM From Germany, joined Feb 2005, 6887 posts, RR: 63
Reply 2, posted (4 years 3 months 2 weeks 5 days 22 hours ago) and read 21190 times:

Quoting robffm2 (Thread starter):
Gerson Lehrman Group is quite pessimistic about BA's orders

Correction. Gerson Lehrman Group does not have an opinion on this or any other matter. A self-styled "analyst" whom many will know here as the voice of F****buzz wrote this piece. Enough said.

[Edited 2010-05-11 05:26:37]

User currently offlineJacobin777 From United States of America, joined Sep 2004, 14968 posts, RR: 60
Reply 3, posted (4 years 3 months 2 weeks 5 days 21 hours ago) and read 20963 times:

Quoting PM (Reply 2):
Quoting robffm2 (Thread starter):
Gerson Lehrman Group is quite pessimistic about BA's orders

Correction. Gerson Lehrman Group does not have an opinion on this or any other matter. A self-styled "analyst" whom many will know here as the voice of F****buzz wrote this piece. Enough said.

Any particular reason why you feel the need to come out on practically every single thread which involves "F****buzz" ?   Its fairly obvious its one person's opinion...



"Up the Irons!"
User currently offlineBurkhard From Germany, joined Nov 2006, 4395 posts, RR: 2
Reply 4, posted (4 years 3 months 2 weeks 5 days 21 hours ago) and read 20921 times:

No fact in this reading but

a) the usual Union bashing and
b) the usual A380 bashing .

If BA management is not able to get to fair contracts with the employees, its time to fire management, not to skip orders for the aircraft that really can make money.


User currently offlineba319-131 From United Kingdom, joined Jan 2001, 8534 posts, RR: 54
Reply 5, posted (4 years 3 months 2 weeks 5 days 21 hours ago) and read 20759 times:
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Quoting Burkhard (Reply 4):
No fact in this reading

- Agreed, no facts, just opinions based on current and recent past events.

If the orders have to be delayed again to reduce expenditure, this partly due to Unite trying to ruin the airline, they will be.



111,732,3,4,5,7,8,BBJ,741,742,743,744,752,762,763,764,772,77L,773,77W,L15,D10,30,40,AB3,AB6,A312.313,319,320,321,332,333
User currently offlineAeolus From Mexico, joined Aug 2007, 374 posts, RR: 0
Reply 6, posted (4 years 3 months 2 weeks 5 days 21 hours ago) and read 20672 times:

Why are they calling the A380 program troubled? I thought it was doing quite well and starting to get a steady production rate. It's true it's one expensive and huge aircraft, but as far as it goes, all (SQ, EK, QF, AF) are satisfied, from what I've read here. Although I'm not so sure about the latter (AF)...

-Aeolus



Flying under the clouds above!
User currently offlineaerokiwi From New Zealand, joined Jul 2000, 2695 posts, RR: 4
Reply 7, posted (4 years 3 months 2 weeks 5 days 21 hours ago) and read 20611 times:

Quoting PM (Reply 2):
Enough said.

Not really. Why not at least address the points the author makes?

Quoting ba319-131 (Reply 5):
- Agreed, no facts, just opinions based on current and recent past events.

Um, opinions based on "current and recent past events"? You do know what an analyst's job is, right? To provide an opinion based on their experience and the information to hand. And the author does state facts, like the pension deficit and estimated losses from recent events.

Quoting ba319-131 (Reply 5):
If the orders have to be delayed again to reduce expenditure, this partly due to Unite trying to ruin the airline, they will be

So, essentially, you're agreeing with him then. Righto then.

[Edited 2010-05-11 06:10:26]

User currently offlinePM From Germany, joined Feb 2005, 6887 posts, RR: 63
Reply 8, posted (4 years 3 months 2 weeks 5 days 20 hours ago) and read 20379 times:

@ Jacobin777

Because opinion is one thing. Preference is one thing. Deliberately, maliciously and knowingly peddling misinformation is something else.

That, in my opinion, is deserving of contempt.

Just my opinion.


User currently offlineba319-131 From United Kingdom, joined Jan 2001, 8534 posts, RR: 54
Reply 9, posted (4 years 3 months 2 weeks 5 days 20 hours ago) and read 20177 times:
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Quoting aerokiwi (Reply 7):
So, essentially, you're agreeing with him then. Righto then.

- Not at all, BA will decide what is best for them - they are in a far better place to make decisions than others.



111,732,3,4,5,7,8,BBJ,741,742,743,744,752,762,763,764,772,77L,773,77W,L15,D10,30,40,AB3,AB6,A312.313,319,320,321,332,333
User currently offlinescouseflyer From United Kingdom, joined Apr 2006, 3389 posts, RR: 9
Reply 10, posted (4 years 3 months 2 weeks 5 days 19 hours ago) and read 20044 times:

The facts of this siuation are (as I understand)

- the strike and the volcano have cost BA a lot of money and WW has said that the whole company could be under threat from the strike

BUT

- they have a large cash pile (despite the pension deficit)
- the strike wasn't as bad as expected as they did get a lot of flights running and did a lot of wet leasing


My thoughts are, if they reach the position of cancelling A380 and 787 orders they're likely to already be in a death spiral so the cancellations will be small beer compared to other things - e.g. if they did go under would it take down BAA - imagine that 2 out the 3 airports from a capital city ceasing to trade !


User currently offlineCFBFrame From United States of America, joined May 2009, 531 posts, RR: 3
Reply 11, posted (4 years 3 months 2 weeks 5 days 19 hours ago) and read 20003 times:

Is an interesting assessment of the A380 program. I think there is a bit much personal assessments included. An analyst prospective should be based on data. Had they said deferrals means x number of units removed from production at x points, and those places would not be replaced by another customer then there may creedance to the statements. Had they said the start dates of those frames and the implications of those dates to show carrying costs of equipment and equipment, again the investor gets a better sense of the implications on Airbus and their suppliers.

PM may be baised in his dislike of the writer, but he does have a point about the quality and merits of the analysis.


User currently offlineJacobin777 From United States of America, joined Sep 2004, 14968 posts, RR: 60
Reply 12, posted (4 years 3 months 2 weeks 5 days 19 hours ago) and read 19863 times:

Quoting PM (Reply 8):
@ Jacobin777

Because opinion is one thing. Preference is one thing. Deliberately, maliciously and knowingly peddling misinformation is something else.

That, in my opinion, is deserving of contempt.

Where is the misinformation? If it was just about the A380 I could say you might have a point (but not necessarily). It mentions both the B787 order and the A380 order-thus balanced somewhat. As you know, the contributor does have links to BA (I've been able to independently verify a number of his posts regarding BA).

I would be glad to call a "spade-a-spade" and question the article (and author) if you have some information regarding the "Deliberately, maliciously and knowingly peddling misinformation" regarding that commentary.  



"Up the Irons!"
User currently offlineseabosdca From United States of America, joined Sep 2007, 5407 posts, RR: 4
Reply 13, posted (4 years 3 months 2 weeks 5 days 18 hours ago) and read 19618 times:

If I could have a dollar for every time I've heard in the last 20 years that BA is in a crisis and is about to go under, I could start my own airline.

Especially given that BA is still bringing in cash, I don't see any reason why they can't muddle through these issues just like they have all of the issues in their past. They may defer orders by a short period of time to make the delivery dates align better with their cash flow, but they won't cancel.


User currently offlineastuteman From United Kingdom, joined Jan 2005, 10008 posts, RR: 96
Reply 14, posted (4 years 3 months 2 weeks 5 days 18 hours ago) and read 19482 times:
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Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 12):
If it was just about the A380 I could say you might have a point (but not necessarily). It mentions both the B787 order and the A380 order-thus balanced somewhat

I like it.

Sadly, the comparison between

Quote:
While Boeing could live with deferred, cut or cancelled 787 orders

and

Quote:
Airbus could not do the same if it happened with the troubled A380.......

The market for it has long since evaporated.......

making profitability about as likely as the dodo making a return from extinction......

particularly in terms of the derogatory and inflamatory phraseology contained in the latter, somewhat blow the "balance" smokescreen to smithereens.

PM is right IMO.
The A380 is uniquely, and deliberately singled out for this type of malice in GLG's (carefully non-attributable) articles.

Airbus could EASILY live with 12 cancelled A380 frames.
According to the programmes detractors, it would probably save Airbus money..   

I'd caution anyone holding their breath, though.
A380 en-masse cancellations have been "just around the corner" for about 6 years now, according to many of the programmes detractors, and still they have yet to materialise (A380F carefully excepted)
I can't think of a programme that has given its customers more opportunities to cancel than the A380, but so far they're not biting.

Still. Statistically, the naysayers are bound to be right. One day. Maybe  

Of course the article is right in the sense that Boeing HAVE lived with deferred, cut, and cancelled 787 orders.
Not much analysis there, is there  

Rgds


User currently offlinetarheelwings From United States of America, joined Jul 2009, 209 posts, RR: 0
Reply 15, posted (4 years 3 months 2 weeks 5 days 18 hours ago) and read 19389 times:

Quoting astuteman (Reply 14):
Of course the article is right in the sense that Boeing HAVE lived with deferred, cut, and cancelled 787 orders.
Not much analysis there, is there

I was enjoying your post right up to the quoted paragraph.....was there really a need for that cheap shot? Since the 787 has had significantly more orders, the chances of cancellations due to program delays would be much higher, wouldn't you agree?


User currently offlineJacobin777 From United States of America, joined Sep 2004, 14968 posts, RR: 60
Reply 16, posted (4 years 3 months 2 weeks 5 days 14 hours ago) and read 18326 times:

Quoting astuteman (Reply 14):
The A380 is uniquely, and deliberately singled out for this type of malice in GLG's (carefully non-attributable) articles.

I don't disagree with you there, the comments are a bit "off-beat" but it is after all, one person's particular opinion. I questioned PM's comment about "misinformation" more than anything else. There is where I would like to see proof.

Quoting astuteman (Reply 14):
A380 en-masse cancellations have been "just around the corner" for about 6 years now, according to many of the programmes detractors, and still they have yet to materialise (A380F carefully excepted)
I can't think of a programme that has given its customers more opportunities to cancel than the A380, but so far they're not biting.

I agree there, we haven't seen "cancellations en-masse"...that being said, I do see some orders "in trouble"..but it is such for every kind of plane...the B787 for whatever reason has had a lot of cancellations as well. It works both ways.



"Up the Irons!"
User currently offlineBennett123 From United Kingdom, joined Aug 2004, 7555 posts, RR: 3
Reply 17, posted (4 years 3 months 2 weeks 5 days 13 hours ago) and read 17917 times:

If these orders are cancelled, it will leave a somewhat elderly WB fleet.

User currently offlineJFKPurser From United States of America, joined Mar 2007, 486 posts, RR: 4
Reply 18, posted (4 years 3 months 2 weeks 5 days 13 hours ago) and read 17401 times:

Any talk of BA in danger of falling into the abyss is just utter nonsense. They have plenty of cash and a few bad financial quarters plus a strike which did relatively little financial damage in the grand scheme both have union buster Walsh ready to heavy-handedly and quite disingenuously attempting to manipulate unions and he flying public into believing that BA is headed toward oblivion. This is just laughable.

User currently offlinePellegrine From United States of America, joined Mar 2007, 2437 posts, RR: 8
Reply 19, posted (4 years 3 months 2 weeks 5 days 8 hours ago) and read 14809 times:

Quoting PM (Reply 2):
Correction. Gerson Lehrman Group does not have an opinion on this or any other matter. A self-styled "analyst" whom many will know here as the voice of F****buzz wrote this piece. Enough said.

I'll agree, this article is trash. It's just basically presenting someone's opinion on what could happen potentially given a set of unknowns, based on that person's preference on what should happen.

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 16):
I questioned PM's comment about "misinformation" more than anything else. There is where I would like to see proof.

Misinformation and opinion from the article:

"the airline would have little option but to cull its orders"
"While Boeing could live with deferred, cut or cancelled 787 orders, Airbus could not do the same if it happened with the troubled A380."


Little option according to whom? Airbus isn't about to go under, BA order or no order.

Who is this "GLG Expert Contributor"???



oh boy!!!
User currently offlineMarcoPoloWorld From United States of America, joined Mar 2008, 639 posts, RR: 0
Reply 20, posted (4 years 3 months 2 weeks 5 days 7 hours ago) and read 14636 times:

Quoting Pellegrine (Reply 19):
Who is this "GLG Expert Contributor"???

Obviously some individual with a grudge about something, maybe in his own personal life. I'm glad to see that I'm not the only one who have stumbled upon those GLG articles when searching for news about the A380 lately, only to find that disgruntled garbage.


User currently offlineastuteman From United Kingdom, joined Jan 2005, 10008 posts, RR: 96
Reply 21, posted (4 years 3 months 2 weeks 5 days 4 hours ago) and read 13723 times:
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Quoting tarheelwings (Reply 15):
I was enjoying your post right up to the quoted paragraph.....was there really a need for that cheap shot? Since the 787 has had significantly more orders, the chances of cancellations due to program delays would be much higher, wouldn't you agree?

My apologies, Tarheelwings - the cheap shot was aimed at the authors, and to a lesser degree, a few A-net posters. Not the 787.   

I don't disagree with your logic. And you won't find me citing 787 cancellations as indications that the programme is shot   

I have to say, though, that over the years we've heard infinitley more about the prospects of A380 cancellations, than we ever have about 787 cancellations. And we still do, despite the stated logic. You only have to read the current threads.

It's a shame the A380 doesn't receive the respect on here that the 787 does. They both deserve it   

Rgds


User currently offlineChiad From Norway, joined May 2006, 1148 posts, RR: 0
Reply 22, posted (4 years 3 months 2 weeks 5 days 2 hours ago) and read 12981 times:

Quoting Pellegrine (Reply 19):
Who is this "GLG Expert Contributor"???
Quoting MarcoPoloWorld (Reply 20):
Obviously some individual with a grudge about something, maybe in his own personal life. I'm glad to see that I'm not the only one who have stumbled upon those GLG articles when searching for news about the A380 lately, only to find that disgruntled garbage.

Try something funny.
Go to
http://www.glgroup.com/

Use their search engine and search for Boeing.
Read three or four articles, then search for Airbus.
Heck ... if you're lazy you can just settle with the headlines and you'll get my point.


User currently offlinetarheelwings From United States of America, joined Jul 2009, 209 posts, RR: 0
Reply 23, posted (4 years 3 months 2 weeks 4 days 22 hours ago) and read 11386 times:

Quoting astuteman (Reply 21):
It's a shame the A380 doesn't receive the respect on here that the 787 does. They both deserve it

Couldn't agree more   

Whether you agree or disagree with the business case, there's absolutely no doubt the A380 is a great plane and a wonderful achievement for Airbus, I look forward to flying on it someday. Unfortunately, most of my business travel these days is limited to flights within the US...maybe when I retire 

Cheers


User currently offlineRevelation From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 12443 posts, RR: 25
Reply 24, posted (4 years 3 months 2 weeks 4 days 20 hours ago) and read 11182 times:

Quoting scouseflyer (Reply 10):
My thoughts are, if they reach the position of cancelling A380 and 787 orders they're likely to already be in a death spiral so the cancellations will be small beer compared to other things - e.g. if they did go under would it take down BAA - imagine that 2 out the 3 airports from a capital city ceasing to trade !

Talking about hype!

Quoting seabosdca (Reply 13):

Especially given that BA is still bringing in cash, I don't see any reason why they can't muddle through these issues just like they have all of the issues in their past. They may defer orders by a short period of time to make the delivery dates align better with their cash flow, but they won't cancel.

  

Quoting astuteman (Reply 14):
Sadly, the comparison between

Quote:
While Boeing could live with deferred, cut or cancelled 787 orders

and

Quote:
Airbus could not do the same if it happened with the troubled A380.......

The market for it has long since evaporated.......

making profitability about as likely as the dodo making a return from extinction......

particularly in terms of the derogatory and inflamatory phraseology contained in the latter, somewhat blow the "balance" smokescreen to smithereens.

PM is right IMO.
The A380 is uniquely, and deliberately singled out for this type of malice in GLG's (carefully non-attributable) articles.

Airbus could EASILY live with 12 cancelled A380 frames.

I agree.

Quoting astuteman (Reply 14):

According to the programmes detractors, it would probably save Airbus money.. 

There's all kinds of ways to look at the A380 program. The pre and post EIS delays surely are disappoing. And many of us felt even before this that the A380 had a poor business case when judged as a stand-alone entity. But the reality is that it is not a stand-alone entity. It was built to fill a hole in the product line and was based on projections of ever-increasing air traffic that have been met on some routes but not met on others. Botttom line is A380 is a great product that is currently disappointing when judged as a stand-alone entity, but it's a disappointment Airbus can afford to have due to the wonderful successes of A320 and A330. Worst case it will muddle on at its current pace, best case it'll become a big cash cow if air traffic grows along the optimistic curve, in either case Airbus learned a lot about how to build a large aircraft and has loads of knowledge and technology that will be reused in A350 and other programs.

Quoting astuteman (Reply 14):
I'd caution anyone holding their breath, though.
A380 en-masse cancellations have been "just around the corner" for about 6 years now, according to many of the programmes detractors, and still they have yet to materialise (A380F carefully excepted)
I can't think of a programme that has given its customers more opportunities to cancel than the A380, but so far they're not biting.

Still. Statistically, the naysayers are bound to be right. One day. Maybe

I think all programs have some soft orders on the book. I think VS's order for A380 is pretty soft. I know many of the 787 orders are soft. I forgot who said it but one analyst put some doubt against something like 30%; of both A350 and 787 orders, but this was at the height of the great financial crisis, you know, the last one, not the current one.

Quoting astuteman (Reply 14):
Of course the article is right in the sense that Boeing HAVE lived with deferred, cut, and cancelled 787 orders.
Not much analysis there, is there

Interesting that there's been nary a peep about El Al dropping 4 777s.

Quoting tarheelwings (Reply 15):
I was enjoying your post right up to the quoted paragraph.....was there really a need for that cheap shot? Since the 787 has had significantly more orders, the chances of cancellations due to program delays would be much higher, wouldn't you agree?

Personally I see nothing wrong with being an equal opportunity basher.

And I think A380s are perhaps more vulnerable to delay and cancellation due to the fact that in general larger planes are harder to fill, especially in a weak economy. When you can fill an A380, it's a great plane to have, as SQ and others are finding.

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 16):

I agree there, we haven't seen "cancellations en-masse"...that being said, I do see some orders "in trouble"..but it is such for every kind of plane...the B787 for whatever reason has had a lot of cancellations as well. It works both ways.

  

Quoting Pellegrine (Reply 19):
Misinformation and opinion from the article:

"the airline would have little option but to cull its orders"

Yes, I think that rises to the standard of misinformation.

In financially rough times large capital orders are carefully scrutinized, and some times pushed back to conserve cash, but rarely "culled".



Inspiration, move me brightly!
25 Post contains links vv701 : Facts are certainly facts. But estimates are, by definition, not facts. So clearly the "estimated losses" are just that - estimated losses not suppor
26 Stitch : The 787 comes to my mind. The A330 and 777 are still both very capable platforms able to earn positive revenue for operators. That would be David Str
27 Jacobin777 : See below.... That can be construed as "misinformation" as well, yet its not. Its one's analysts and opinion and I think a commentary from a well res
28 allegro : I would have to agree with PM nd Astuteman here ... the analyst (Saj Ahmad) is clearly biased towards Boeing. Well and good, that is his opinion. Just
29 GDB : From my own standpoint, within BA Engineering, where much work - including LHR base infrastructure - is underway to prepare for these new types, my co
30 Stitch : Not that I am inclined to believe such a thing, if I were to play "Nattering Nabob of Negativism Advocate", it could also be a sign that ILFC can't p
31 Post contains images Jacobin777 : Taking a bias will always skew the validity of an analysis-thus why its always good to read multiple analysis.. . Maybe as a UK tax-payer, Mr. Ahmad
32 Pellegrine : Please. That UBS analyst's opinion is OLD as the hills. Things change very fast, obviously. Anyone would be dumb as bricks to view a year+ old analys
33 zvezda : It depends on who's at fault (unreasonable) in the negotiations. If failure in the negotiations is due to unreasonable demands by management, then ma
34 bestwestern : The article does a 1+1 = 3 (BA strikes + Pensions = BA Doom) and then a 3 +1 = 5 (BA doom + A380 cancellation= EADS doom) approach to analysis. This
35 aerokiwi : Fair enough, point taken. But you are the only one to have taken the time to address this. Of course the nature of analysis and consultancy work comb
36 zvezda : I just read the article again and it doesn't make either of those assertions, though the tone is certainly gloomy.
37 bestwestern : Article quote This isn’t some long winded scenario that resembles doomsday. – it’s real and existential. 1+1 = 3 Article quote Airbus could not
38 zvezda : Your interpretation reads an awful lot between the lines. As I read it, there isn't even an implication that BA or Airbus are doomed -- only that the
39 bestwestern : two quotes from the article. BA in trouble British Airways does not have state support to ride out twenty days worth of planned industrial action Air
40 Remcor : Even better, do a search for 'CSeries'. However I have to admit I do like reading his articles, even if they're very repetitive (expect an anti-A380
41 Post contains images Baroque : Quite an illuminating exercise. As you say, just the headlines make the point. Managing a headline of Boeing 787 Delivery Delays Not Certain is fairl
42 XT6Wagon : Perhaps you are unaware that EADS is currently neck deep in resource issues. One of these resources is money. The A380 burned thier reserves to the g
43 GDB : Well I know for sure the first here is a total load of cack typed up by someone who is all agenda and no insight - or basic knowledge? Which does not
44 Post contains images Jacobin777 : IIRC, the UBS comment was quite new.... Baroque, I'm not so sure what you mean friend...a bit confused... I do not believe what the author was meanin
45 Post contains images astuteman : I have to say that I would expect an author in this position to have the intellect to be able to express exactly what it is he wants to say. That he
46 Pellegrine : S*** I hope it's not!
47 zvezda : This theory doesn't survive Occam's Razor. Most likely, the author wrote what he meant to write and an editor rewrote it into hyperbole. The agenda w
48 Post contains images astuteman : I'm not sure whether that demonstrates the applicability of Occam's Razor, or otherwise, but your point about the editorial input is a good one. Whic
49 Post contains images PM : For those unfamiliar with how GLG works, there is no editorial control. The article as published was exactly as the author wrote it. He either meant
50 Post contains images EPA001 : Thanks PM for clarifying this. This means to me that what you stated in this thread a couple of days ago, and what Astutemen stated more recently, is
51 Baroque : Just noting that you appear - rather unusually I might add - to be tilting at windmills along the lines of Don Quixote who was "ably assisted" in thi
52 timboflier215 : Actually zvezda: BA has said that they already have the money/financing in place for ALL of their current a/c orders. So more strikes won't change th
53 zvezda : Even ring-fenced, there is a limit to how long a strike can ground an airline before aircraft orders get cancelled. To illustrate by way of reductio a
54 timboflier215 : Yes, absolutely. But as was pointed out above, if BA got to the point where ring-fenced cash was being used to prop it up, then cancelling a/c orders
55 zvezda : As I wrote above, my opinion of this article is that it's sensationalism designed to attract readers and money. I don't believe the author cares one
56 bestwestern : such high-brow analysis wasted on a rubbish article by a biased author.
57 Post contains images Revelation : I'm enjoying what he's writing, so either I'm high brow or you're low brow, or maybe both?
58 Post contains images aerokiwi : Speaking of 1 + 1 = 3 . The Times today reported BA is set to announce a 550-620 million pound loss this week (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/
59 Pellegrine : It was a waste of time what he wrote, and definitely lower than low brow. Regardless of the inaccuracy and ridiculousness of the opinion, it was a ve
60 zvezda : Indeed. Sensationalist journalism does not indicate that someone is out to get anyone. There seems to be a handful of posters who are not only fanati
61 Cerecl : And? LH lost 330 million euro in Q109, AA lost $1.5 billion for 2009 financial year. Are we going to see an article from GLG group about airlines can
62 Post contains images astuteman : If that's the maths you want to infer, go for it Nor does it indicate that they're not, though, and there is very clear, and long-running evidence of
63 aerokiwi : That I do not know. But are all airlines in the same position as BA? Massive pension liability + largest loss since privatisation + looming strike ac
64 Burkhard : More or less yes. Massive restructuring costs for new subsidiaries + looming strike action + further major disruptions from volcanic ash + recent str
65 aerokiwi : Without knowing more about LH's relative financial state (though you're right about the strikes - though to a far lesser scale than BA), I can't real
66 Post contains images astuteman : Well, one out of two ain't bad. But then that's the standard of maths you seem to want to apply. They've certainly taken a position (e.g. Airbus can'
67 PM : Perhaps I might usefully remind everyone that "GLG" have no opinion about anything. GLG is a clearing house for specialists who may (or may not) have
68 SEPilot : I have no direct knowledge of the actual financial states of Airbus, Boeing, or BA, but I do know the following: 1. The A380 cost about twice as much
69 Burkhard : We all know that only few, too few A380 are in service by now. We all agree this wasn't a masterpiece of management art, just now it looks like produc
70 Post contains images Jacobin777 : I've expressed my disagreement with this as well. There is no reason why Airbus can't live with a cancellation or two. If anything, it might free up
71 Post contains images keesje : I think BA will continue to focussing on it's key Asian and US networks. Not matching growth / competition and replacing their large VLA fleet / twin
72 Post contains images astuteman : How do you know that's charitable? The development budget up to the major delays was $12.7Bn Airbus wrote off, on top of that, another $6Bn specifica
73 timboflier215 : But BA have quoted publicly that they have ALL the financing in place for ALL of the 787's and A380's that they have ordered. So unless this financin
74 cosmofly : Boeing should be competing with the same mentality with their 748 to try to gain as many orders as they can. Regardless, A and B has been able to kee
75 Stitch : Be careful throwing around statements like this. While the A380 is a solid choice for many carriers flying to LHR, it's not the only choice. Airlines
76 Baroque : I suppose the thing that is a bit disappointing about this thread is that the criticisms of the A380 (and to an extent the B787) are so poor compared
77 Post contains images Stitch : Grist for the mill, I guess... Looks like the next GLG piece on the A380 is going to be even more so, based on the preview at FB Editorials... The ti
78 SEPilot : This is true; however, it was mostly borrowed money, and must be either paid back or forgiven. The figures I gave have only what I have read and reme
79 MD-90 : Hmmmm? Would that include all of the 20th century?
80 zvezda : If you want to count the time before the formation of Airbus, then it's only fair to include all the european aerospace companies that were eventuall
81 Revelation : Actually, if you re-read and acquire the correct context, I was referring to Zvezda's commentary, not the "Gerson & Lehrman" article.
82 Stitch : One could argue that Boeing is the company that made both advances commercially viable with the Model 247 and the 707, respectively.
83 Post contains images RIX : - no. Your quote was clearly "Airbus and Boeing", not "whole European aviation and Boeing". With all respect to European - actually, UK - priorities,
84 zvezda : It was MD-90 who wanted to expand the comparison to all of the 20th century, not just the time both Airbus and Boeing existed. By that metric, of cou
85 Post contains images astuteman : "Mostly" borrowed? Where on earth do you get that from? There are some people on here with their "Airbus is a socialist work programme" mantra that h
86 SEPilot : As I said before, I have no knowledge of Airbus's finances, but I find it difficult to believe that any organization can take $20 billion or anything
87 Post contains images astuteman : Again, they've not actually taken $20Bn from revenue. $4Bn or so was borrowed, and I guess a similar number is "forward sold" against future revenue,
88 SEPilot : This may well be the case; I will not quibble with your figures. That I can agree with; the A320 and A330 certainly have brought in substantial profi
89 zvezda : Apple and Microsoft are probably the only two companies in the world that could lose $20 billion without any effect on operations. Exactly right! As
90 PlanesNTrains : I await the -900, which I think will have a much more appealing appearance. The -800, though, is very distinctive. -Dave
91 babybus : BA needs its A380's or it's going to look a right loser in front of other A380 operators at LHR. An airline for the future needs a fleet for the futur
92 SEPilot : Beauty is in the eye of the beholder. The thing that kills the A380 for me is the nose; obviously Airbus wanted the flight deck on the lower level. I
93 zvezda : In my opinion, the only reason why the WhaleJet's nose looks strange is because the cockpit windows look tiny relative to the size of the aircraft. I
94 Post contains links Revelation : BA has ordered A380s but I doubt it's just to keep up with the neighbors. As we see in the thread: Airbus To Build New Higher Weight A380 Variant (by
95 Post contains images TravelAVNut : For me the fat forehead makes it look like my first mother-in-law, which, if you would know her (glad you don´t) you´d know it´s quite the insult.
96 AirNZ : Okay, I'll ask again......where does it even remotely state what you are imagining?
97 astuteman : I harbour my suspicions that EK was actually the single biggest driver behind the MTOW increase...... Rgds
98 Post contains images tom355uk : Complete bollocks. The BA A380 and 787 orders were placed in September 2007, and a $1.5bn debt financing facility was agreed with a group of banks at
99 Stitch : But they have yet to operate the 569t variant and I believe their long-haul models, rated for 560t, are certified for 540t to save costs.
100 Post contains images astuteman : Agree, agree, agree, my friend. However, they have been the most vociferous pursuers of longer range A380's that I know of. I specifically recall whe
101 GDB : BA does NOT buy a type just to look good. If they did, they would have a more diverse fleet and would have not had a buying aircraft 'holiday' for th
102 MD-90 : Not really. When you said Airbus and Boeing, I took that to mean Airbus and Boeing. It's pretty hard for Airbus, an entity that was formally founded
103 Jacobin777 : We know VS have delayed theirs until 2015 at the earliest. Personally, just a random musing, but I think they will switch the orders to A350's (possi
104 zvezda : Indeed. That seems overwhelmingly likely, particular in the context of the UK/US Open Skies agreement and VS's public statements that they will never
105 Stitch : As I recall, there were many electrons spilled on VS ordering the A380-800 purely for PR purposes to "one up" BA and their actual interest in operati
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