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FL/OO And YX/F9 In MKE...even Or Error?  
User currently offlineknope2001 From United States of America, joined May 2005, 2947 posts, RR: 30
Posted (4 years 5 months 2 weeks 15 hours ago) and read 4128 times:

The March MKE stats show AirTran virtually pulling even with Midwest in the month of March, but as I'll show shortly I believe they are double counting Skywest in the FL total. :

288,574 total YX/F9
189,589 Midwest
78.087 Midwest Connect
20,808 Frontier


286,360 total FL + OO
253,266 AirTran
33,094 Skywest


This is much closer than capacity would suggest. Even with the 17,436 charter passengers flown by AirTran in March, it still doesn’t fit that AirTran+Skywest would match Midwest+Frontier.

So I looked at the numbers, and I think that AirTran is reporting Skywest as part of their own numbers, and then also Skywest is reporting them separately. A few different things support this.


---Questionable Load Factor---

The March report for AirTran shows 130,392 departing passengers and 1,083 flights. That comes to 120.4 passengers per departure. I worked out the average capacity per departure for AirTran at Milwaukee for March and it comes to 128.2 seats per flight. That would be a load factor of 93.9% for the entire month of March for the entire AirTran Milwaukee set of routes. That would be stunning, especially considering that this is the first winter when they ran a full complement of business routes.


---Comparison to AirTran System Average---

If 93.9% is in fact the real Milwaukee load factor, it would represent a major shift. Milwaukee has for quite some time been around 4-8 points lower than the AirTran system average. Check out the change since the start of the year…using Mitchell Airport figures for 2010. These are Milwaukee AirTran loads compared to systemwide AirTran loads for each month.

MKE ...... System... Difference
70.4% ….. 73.2% ….. -2.8% ….. JAN 2009
70.3% ….. 74.2% ….. -3.9% ….. FEB
77.4% ….. 80.7% ….. -3.3% ….. MAR
76.8% ….. 80.4% ….. -3.6% ….. APR
69.0% ….. 78.0% ….. -9.0% ….. MAY
74.0% ….. 83.6% ….. -9.6% ….. JUN
79.6% ….. 88.3% ….. -8.7% ….. JUL
81.8% ….. 84.9% ….. -3.1% ….. AUG
72.4% ….. 77.0% ….. -4.6% ….. SEP
75.7% ….. 79.2% ….. -3.5% ….. OCT
73.1% ….. 76.7% ….. -3.6% ….. NOV
72.1% ….. 77.4% ….. -5.3% ….. DEC
73.0% ….. 72.0% ….. 1.0% ….. JAN 2010 *****
78.8% ..... 75.1% ..... 3.7% ..... FEB *****
93.9% ..... 83.8% ..... 10.1% ..... MAR *****

Milwaukee's regular gap below FL system average suddenly turned around the same time Skywest arrived, and was more then 10 points better than the system average for March. The Skywest flights are probably helping MKE loads, but this kind of change just doesn't seem reasonable. Had AirTran's mainline departures seen load factor from from 77.4% full last March to anywhere near 93.9% full this March...even with new Southwest and restored YX/F9 competition...I can't imagine this wouldn't have been trumped someplace like the Q1 conference call.

If instead we back out Skywest’s numbers from the AirTran reported totals, then things look much more normal. These MKE loads for 2010 are calculated by taking the airports reported AirTran totals and then lowering them by the amount of the Skywest traffic (which is separately reported):

MKE ...... System... Difference
67.3% ….. 72.0% ….. -4.7% ….. JAN 2010
70.1% ..... 75.1% ..... -5.0% ..... FEB
81.5% ...... 83.8% ..... -2.3% ..... MAR

Those are far more in line with what is expected.


---Comparison of MKE stats to actual DoT figures---

One addition thing which suggests the MKE report has AirTran adding the Skywest figures into their own, and also reporting them separately, is comparing the airport reports to the actual DoT figures.

The DoT figures are actual passengers reported by carrier, market and aircraft. So we can tally those for the month and compare those to what the airport monthly reports show. Traditionally, the reported AirTran totals on the MKE monthly reports are slightly higher than the DoT stats. Not clear why that is, but it is pretty consistent…until Skywest started. Then the MKE airport totals for AirTran started showing a lot more than what the DoT shows.

Here’s the comparison of AirTran traffic between DoT actual and what MKE reported, per 100 passengers. In other words for every 100 passengers on the DoT actual report, here’s how many were reported on the MKE monthly stats:

102.4 ….. May
102.2 ….. June
101.7 ….. July
101.5 ….. Aug
103.2 ….. Sept
101.7 ….. Oct
101.7 ….. Nov
108.6 ….. Dec *****
114.6 ….. Jan *****
The ratio of MKE stats to DoT actual was pretty reliably in about the 102-103 range until December and January, when Skywest started. Then all of a sudden MKE reported a lot more passengers than the DoT actual.

Assuming the AirTran totals incorrectly include the Skywest totals, if you subtract those numbers out, then December and January fall in line with other months.

102.4 ….. May
102.2 ….. June
101.7 ….. July
101.5 ….. Aug
103.2 ….. Sept
101.7 ….. Oct
101.7 ….. Nov
102.0 ….. Dec *****
103.6 ….. Jan *****

DoT stats are not quite out yet for February to compare actual reported versus MKE reported, but it should be out soon.

---MKE Year-Over-Year Traffic---

If in fact MKE is incorrectly reporting Skywest twice (on its own and added into the Skywest totals) that explains how Milwaukee’s year-over-year growth actually *accelerated* in March, the first month where Skywest was at full schedule strength with decent loads (64.76%). Certainly there is huge growth at MKE, and when January was some 40% better year over year, we knew that last January was especially depressed. Last March wasn’t nearly as bleak, and so I figured March would be up maybe 30-33%. To have MKE up some 41% over last March is stunning. Now that I see the details, I don’t think it is accurate.

Of course unless the MKE airport checks this out and (assuming this is right) corrects the numbers, the airport stats will be reported as such and seen as a huge milestone for AirTran.

I do think that AirTran...accurate figures including Skywest exaclty once...will definitely narrow the gap with Midwest this summer. But several things support these MKE stats being incorrect.

At least twice before I've seen a clear flaw with the MKE monthly stats...one month they skipped Continental Express, and another month the market share of each airline totaled something like 113%. In both cases I contaced them and shortly thereafter there were revised stats out. We'll see if an inquiry uncovers what's up this time.

7 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently offlineknope2001 From United States of America, joined May 2005, 2947 posts, RR: 30
Reply 1, posted (4 years 5 months 2 weeks 11 hours ago) and read 3807 times:

Quoting Atlwest1 (Reply 2):
ehhh maybe not, but my thing is Id go with the FL numbers just because they have depts to check the numbers and a mistake like that could mess with the stock price a bit. I think the numbers they posted are accurate

It might not be AirTran's mistake...it could be Milwaukee County's mistake.

The same monthly reports from the MKE website claim no connecting passengers to, from, or between Skywest flights, and that is positively incorrect.


User currently onlineFL787 From United States of America, joined Aug 2007, 1545 posts, RR: 12
Reply 2, posted (4 years 5 months 2 weeks 7 hours ago) and read 3532 times:

Quoting knope2001 (Thread starter):
At least twice before I've seen a clear flaw with the MKE monthly stats...one month they skipped Continental Express, and another month the market share of each airline totaled something like 113%.

I think they need to improve their reporting. There's no way FL had over 90% LFs so I don't even think thread should involve a question. Someone definitely messed up.



717,72S,732/3/4/5/G/8/9,744,752/3,763/4,772/3,D9S/5,M8/90,D10,319/20/21,332/3,388,CR2/7/9,EM2,ER4,E70/75/90,SF3,AR8
User currently offlinecslusarc From Canada, joined May 2005, 840 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (4 years 5 months 2 weeks 7 hours ago) and read 3507 times:

Question: Is OO only flying for FL at MKE?


--cslusarc from YWG
User currently offlineSLUAviator From United States of America, joined Aug 2004, 357 posts, RR: 3
Reply 4, posted (4 years 5 months 2 weeks 6 hours ago) and read 3437 times:

Quoting cslusarc (Reply 5):
Question: Is OO only flying for FL at MKE?

No. We operate UA and DL flights as well in MKE.



What do I know? I just fly 'em.......
User currently onlineFL787 From United States of America, joined Aug 2007, 1545 posts, RR: 12
Reply 5, posted (4 years 5 months 2 weeks ago) and read 3144 times:

Looks like nobody caught the error before it made it to the media:

http://www.bizjournals.com/milwaukee...s_midwest_at_mitchell_sort_of.html

If Knope is right, and I think he is, FL/OO is really at 28.25%, not in the 30s as the article says. I'm interested in the two new routes out of MKE. Maybe PHL and MIA? When they talk about summer seasonal stuff, I think they mean flights that are already loaded but haven't started yet like SAN and the 2nd daily to SEA and SFO.

As a side note, it appears FL has flip-flopped again and now says MKE is going to grow instead of their previous statement that MKE has "matured". Not that I have a problem with it.



717,72S,732/3/4/5/G/8/9,744,752/3,763/4,772/3,D9S/5,M8/90,D10,319/20/21,332/3,388,CR2/7/9,EM2,ER4,E70/75/90,SF3,AR8
User currently offlineAtlwest1 From United States of America, joined Jan 2009, 1046 posts, RR: 1
Reply 6, posted (4 years 5 months 1 week 6 days 23 hours ago) and read 3046 times:

Quoting FL787 (Reply 7):
As a side note, it appears FL has flip-flopped again and now says MKE is going to grow instead of their previous statement that MKE has "matured". Not that I have a problem with it.

Also they have just said in the article they will announce 2 new destinations and seasonal stuff for MKE.



ALL views, opinions expressed are mine ONLY and are NOT representative of those shared by Southwest Airlines Co. or Airt
User currently onlineFL787 From United States of America, joined Aug 2007, 1545 posts, RR: 12
Reply 7, posted (4 years 5 months 1 week 6 days 22 hours ago) and read 3036 times:

Quoting Atlwest1 (Reply 8):
Also they have just said in the article they will announce 2 new destinations and seasonal stuff for MKE.

I know:

Quoting FL787 (Reply 7):
I'm interested in the two new routes out of MKE. Maybe PHL and MIA? When they talk about summer seasonal stuff, I think they mean flights that are already loaded but haven't started yet like SAN and the 2nd daily to SEA and SFO.



717,72S,732/3/4/5/G/8/9,744,752/3,763/4,772/3,D9S/5,M8/90,D10,319/20/21,332/3,388,CR2/7/9,EM2,ER4,E70/75/90,SF3,AR8
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